NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Two

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2024-09-16 18:56:45

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore Ravens						Cincinnati Bengals
Saturday – 1 p.m.						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	41.5	16				-9.5	41.5	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.8	23	10	24		Offense	26.3	4	14	14
Opp. Defense	17.5	1	23	7		Opp. Defense	25.1	22	13	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	3	14	10	17		Baltimore Ravens	22	7	30	2
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Aiken	114	70	5	868		Green	127	82	9	1263
Givens	50	20	1	371		Sanu	47	32	2	448
Brown	30	14	0	112		Jones	98	60	4	811
Williams	38	26	1	215		Hewitt	12	8	0	99

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Andy Dalton (CIN, Out)

BAL Matchup Rating: 2.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: The Ravens got a surprisingly competent performance from Ryan Mallett (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) last week en route to an upset win against the Steelers. The folks in Vegas aren’t buying in, as Baltimore are still more than a touchdown behind the Bengals in the current odds. Mallett is getting a dress rehearsal for the offseason, hoping to earn a spot as the backup to Joe Flacco. He’ll find it hard to put on a good show against the Bengals, who have allowed just two touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks since Week 12, with eight interceptions snagged over that span. Carson Palmer is the only passer to score more than twice against the Cincy defense, which ranks ninth in DVOA, and 30th in fantasy points allowed. Even a “good” game from Mallett last week wasn’t all that fantasy relevant, and a much tougher matchup takes him out of consideration.

Running Game: When Javorius Allen (FD $6,000, DK $4,400) doesn’t fumble, he’s a decent fantasy option, especially in PPR formats. Allen has four or more catches in five of his last six appearances, and has scored through the air twice over that span of games. In a matchup with a tough Steeler run defense, he was able to grind out 80 yards and a score, which represents a ceiling and not a median projection against a pretty good Bengal run defense. Cincy does rank 28th in DVOA against RBs in the passing game, and have allowed 93 receptions to opposing backs on the season, so Allen has strong upside in PPR formats. But his rushing upside is limited by a defense that has not allowed more than 76 rushing yards to a single back since Week 6, and only six rushing touchdowns to opposing backs all season.

Pass Catchers: Kamar Aiken (FD $6,500, DK $5,400) has been thrust into a big role in the Baltimore passing game as the best healthy option for the Ravens, and he’s seen 10+ targets in four of his last seven, with no fewer than seven targets in any of those games. He’s consistently hauled in 5-8 of those passes and catches a touchdown every other week, but doesn’t have a ton of big play potential. The Bengals rank 22nd in points allowed to opposing wideouts, and eighth in DVOA against opposing WR1. This isn’t a great spot for Aiken, who averaged just eight yards per catch last week with Mallett at the helm against a weaker pass defense. The Bengals are slightly weaker against tight ends than they are against wideouts, but the weakness isn’t noteworthy, and Maxx Williams (FD $4,800, DK $2,700) hasn’t really provided noteworthy numbers with Crockett Gillmore on the shelf.

The Takeaway: Buck Allen is a fairly strong PPR option, and Kamar Aiken is a speculative PPR play at WR. Otherwise, the Ravens lack in floor and ceiling against a tough Cincy defense (that will be motivated to win for playoff seeding purposes).

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: If AJ McCarron (FD $6,300, DK $5,300) was already tough to trust, how much more difficult to trust is injured AJ McCarron? The Bengal QB will play with an injury to his non-throwing wrist, which may still impact his game, but won’t keep him out of this fairly important contest for Cincinnati. He’s thrown just two touchdowns over his last two starts, and has not posted impressive yardage totals in either game. However, road games against San Francisco and Denver are slightly tougher passing situations than a game at home against Baltimore. The Ravens rank 26th in DVOA against the pass, and have allowed the 11th-most points to opposing QBs. If you’re going to get contrarian and risky with a cheap QB, McCarron is easily the best option. On DraftKings, where a guy like Eli Manning is just a few hundred dollars more, McCarron makes very little sense. But on FanDuel, where he’s priced like Brandon Weeden and Zach Mettenberger, he’s a steal and a viable GPP punt play.

Running Game: It doesn’t really matter what you or I think about the Bengal running backs. Jeremy Hill (FD $6,400, DK $4,700) is going to be the lead back in any game in which the Bengals aren’t trailing by a wide margin. Giovani Bernard (FD $5,500, DK $4,100) will get his touches, and he’s looked good at times this season, but Hill is going to get the bulk of the work, and the goal-line touches. The Ravens are a very tough run defense, ranking ninth in DVOA against ground games and 27th in fantasy points allowed. So this could be one of those two-touchdown games from Hill to go along with a terrible stat line, but the chances of a big game from the disappointing and inconsistent LSU product just aren’t very high. He’s a risky tournament flier.

Pass Catchers: Tyler Eifert (FD $6,200, DK $4,700) looks to be on his way back to game action, and will face a Ravens defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends on the season, and that held him without a catch on three targets back in September. I wouldn’t rule him out, as his touchdown upside is ever-present, but the player to target in the Cincy passing game is A.J. Green (FD $8,400, DK $7,500). With the money you save on McCarron, you can pay up for Green, and unlock the scoring potential of a player with five touchdowns in his last five outings. The Ravens have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts on the season, including a massive game for Green in the previous meeting between these two sides. He’s well worth the cost in a tournament, but has a low floor thanks to a shaky workload and isn’t a great play in cash formats. Marvin Jones (FD $5,700, DK $3,700) is dealing with an injury, but if he plays, he’s the definition of a GPP play. If Jones sits out, look to Mohamed Sanu (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) as a potential replacement as the secondary receiver option behind Green.

The Takeaway: The Bengals have playoff seeding to play for, and therefore have plenty of incentive to hold serve on home turf against a bad Ravens team. Their passing game has the better matchup, so look for McCarron and Green to connect for a score or two.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers						Cleveland Browns
Saturday – 1 p.m.						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-10.5	47	28.75				10.5	47	18.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.3	4	5	13		Offense	17.7	29	16	19
Opp. Defense	26.9	29	16	32		Opp. Defense	20.5	11	30	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	27	18	23	9		Pittsburgh Steelers	26	2	32	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	176	123	9	1675		Benjamin	114	63	5	925
Bryant	89	49	7	802		Gabriel	48	28	0	241
Wheaton	74	41	4	692		Moore	10	7	1	81
Miller	77	57	1	519		Barnidge	112	71	9	977

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Martavis Bryant (PIT, Questionable), Travis Benjamin (CLE, Questionable)

PIT Matchup Rating: 8.5
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: The Steelers need a win and a Jets loss to make the playoffs, which means they’ll be watching the scoreboard while trying to rack up as many points as they can against their lowly division rivals. Cleveland ranks 28th in pass defense according to Football Outsiders, and has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the year. And after last week’s disappointment, Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,800, DK $6,900) will almost certainly bounce back and have a nice afternoon passing the football. His practice time this week has been plagued by an illness, but his chances of playing remain quite high, which means a chance to repeat his 379-yard, three-score outing against the Browns in November. Since that game, Cleveland has allowed two or more touchdown passes to every QB they’ve faced that isn’t Blaine Gabbert, so the floor appears to be safe, and the ceiling is always sky high with this Pittsburgh passing attack.

Running Game: It’s been a few weeks since the Browns allowed a touchdown to a running back, but they’re still one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, ranking 28th in DVOA and 32nd in numberFire’s run defense metrics. DeAngelo Williams (FD $8,200, DK $7,100) had a disappointing game against them last time out, but has been a workhorse back for the Steelers since Le’Veon Bell’s injury and will likely get 20+ touches against a defense that has allowed over 2400 total yards to opposing backs this season. His floor is high, but so is his price, meaning he’s not the must-play he was a couple thousand dollars ago. Still, he’s a strong option to build around in cash games.

Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown (FD $9,100, DK $9,300) has 10+ targets in every game since Week 8, and has three 10+ reception games over that span, including one against the Browns. He needs no further introduction. Martavis Bryant (FD $7,100, DK $5,300) doesn’t offer the same consistency, but has incredible upside, and very rarely has back-to-back poor performances. He also lit up the Browns in the previous meeting of these two teams. Cleveland has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing wideouts on the season, and both Brown and Bryant are core plays. Markus Wheaton (FD $5,600, DK $4,000) has been a steady source of production recently, as well, but isn’t as talented as his counterparts. He’s the riskiest of the three, but also likely to be the least popular, and considering just how bad the Browns are defensively, he’s worthy of a spot in a lineup or two. Heath Miller (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) hasn’t scored since Week 2, and he’s unlikely to put together a stat line worthy of playing in DFS this weekend.

The Takeaway: The Steelers need a win and have the personnel to take advantage of a weak Cleveland defense. Look for Roethlisberger, Williams, Brown and Bryant to have good games, but figuring out which one will have a huge game will be what differentiates okay lineups from great lineups. If you want to get a contrarian piece of this offense, Wheaton will offer what will likely be a very low ownership level with upside for a touchdown or two.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: Austin Davis (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) will start at quarterback for the Browns, and since he’s not priced at the minimum salary on FanDuel, he holds little appeal thanks to better options at the same price. The Steelers have a weak pass defense, but Davis has limited upside as an unproven quarterback without a ton of great options in his receiving corps. McCarron, Cutler and Bradford don’t cost that much more on FanDuel and are superior options.

Running Game: Isaiah Crowell (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) has been running fairly well recently, picking up three touchdowns in his last two games against “not the Seahawks.” Outside of that tough outing against Seattle, he has 5+ yards per carry on 11+ attempts in three straight games, and leads the way in touches for the Browns backfield. However, the Steelers rank fifth in DVOA against the run and have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. Crowell managed to finish with negative rushing yards on six carries the last time these teams met, and with Cleveland likely to lose, game flow will limit his opportunities. Duke Johnson (FD $5,500, DK $3,500) may see a couple of extra targets this week, but the Steelers have been strong in coverage against backs (ninth in DVOA), and he hasn’t shown much upside as a receiver in recent weeks. I don’t think this is a situation to invest in either Cleveland runner.

Pass Catchers: Travis Benjamin (FD $5,400, DK $4,100) has really fallen off as the year has gone on, but the Steelers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts on the season. If Davis is to have a successful game, it will be on throws to Benjamin and Gary Barnidge (FD $6,300, DK $4,700). The Steelers are much worse against opposing WR1 than TE according to DVOA, so assuming he’s healthy enough to play, he has a good chance to recreate the 100-yard performance he posted last time these teams met. However, he’s only scored once since Week 3, and has 19 combined targets in his last four games after seeing double-digit looks in six of his first 11 starts. Barnidge, on the other hand, continues to score on a regular basis and has finished with 10+ FanDuel points in ten of his last 13 starts. That’s a pretty safe floor, but his upside is lacking due to his quarterback situation, so there are better ways to go at the position this weekend.

The Takeaway: The Browns are huge underdogs at home against the Steelers, and Pittsburgh has all sorts of motivation (playoffs, bounce back, etc.) to send them into the offseason with a double-digit loss. Benjamin and Barnidge are the only players to even consider, and they’re risky even in a favorable matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars						Houston Texans
Saturday – 1 p.m.						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	45.5	19.5				-6.5	45.5	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.7	10	8	21		Offense	20.6	24	20	16
Opp. Defense	20.5	11	3	14		Opp. Defense	27.9	31	29	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	13	16	4	13		Jacksonville Jaguars	29	24	18	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Robinson	142	75	14	1292		Hopkins	180	104	11	1432
Hurns	100	61	10	1013		Washington	91	46	4	652
Lee	26	12	1	199		Shorts	75	42	3	531
Thomas	74	44	5	443		Fiedorowicz	21	15	1	153

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: T.J. Yeldon (JAC, Out), Cecil Shorts (HOU, Out)

JAC Matchup Rating: 4.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback: The Jaguars have a lot of work to do on their roster this offseason if they hope to build on the bit of positive momentum they developed this season, as they have one of the league’s worst defenses and never really established a ground game on offense. But their passing game seems to be loaded with talent, led by young quarterback Blake Bortles (FD $8,100, DK $6,700). This week might not be the best time to roll out Bortles in DFS, however, as the Texans are on track to win the division with a victory (and likely with a loss, as well, but they’ll want to leave no doubt). Houston ranks sixth in weighted overall DVOA, and eighth in pass DVOA for the season. The folks at numberFire rank them fourth against the pass. Since Week 7, opposing quarterbacks have thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in eight games against Houston. The floor is low, but the ceiling remains high for Bortles, who did toss three TDs in the first meeting between these teams. This is a decidedly better defense than the one Jacksonville faced earlier in the season, however, Bortles did throw for 381 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Jets defense earlier this season. The upside is there, but the floor to price ratio is quite risky.

Running Game: With T.J. Yeldon hurt and unlikely to play, the Jaguars are left seeing what they’ve got in their backup running backs in this final week. Denard Robinson (FD $6,400, DK $5,400) was previously the top backup, but according to the Jags’ offensive coordinator, Jonas Gray (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) will get a shot in Week 17, as well. Houston is pretty good against the run (not as good as they are against the pass, however), and Jacksonville are likely to lose this game, so I’m not sure there’s enough quality volume to split between these two backups to make either one worthy of a roster spot.

Pass Catchers: Allen Robinson (FD $8,500, DK $7,800) and Allen Hurns (FD $7,300, DK $5,600) combine with Julius Thomas (FD $6,500, DK $4,900) to to create a trio of top targets for Bortles in the passing game. In a matchup with a tough pass defense, it’s tough to decide which one to target. However, a noteworthy weakness for the Texans all year has been defending slot receivers, which is where Hurns will spend more of his time than Robinson. Robinson will likely draw a healthy amount of coverage from Jonathan Joseph, while Julius Thomas will face a team that ranks fifth in DVOA against tight ends. Hurns is the preferred option in this passing game, with Robinson and Thomas reserved for use in contrarian stacks with Bortles.

The Takeaway: The Jags are playing for pride, while their favored opponents need a win to remove any hope for the Colts to pass them for a playoff spot. It is tough to trust any member of the Jacksonville offense, but Allen Hurns stands out as the best play overall.

Houston Texans

Quarterback: Despite suffering multiple concussions over the past month, including one that left him with memory loss, Brian Hoyer (FD $6,900, DK $5,100) will likely start this weekend against the Jaguars. Houston need a win to lock in a playoff spot, so they will want Hoyer out there assuming he suffers no setbacks. Hoyer will face a defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That’s a great matchup, as Hoyer proved the last time these teams met by throwing for 293 yards and three scores. He’s a very strong option again this weekend, providing an alternative to the likely very popular Eli Manning at a similar price.

Running Game: Alfred Blue (FD $5,400, DK $3,700) and Chris Polk (FD $4,700, DK $3,400) are the primary runners for the Texans, with Blue tending to get more touches when fully healthy. Neither holds much appeal against Jacksonville, who have a better run defense than their DVP numbers would suggest. Houston will throw to win in this game, and while Blue or Polk may punch in a score or two, predicting which will do anything of note is a tough task. Blue would be the preferred option if I were forced to choose just one.

Pass Catchers: With Cecil Shorts out, the decision of who to target at wideout for the Texans becomes quite easy. DeAndre Hopkins (FD $9,000, DK $8,400) is worthy of a start every week, as he’s the team’s best receiver and second-best player. He will get 10+ targets against a bad defense he shredded earlier this season, and is a core play. Nate Washington (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) will also see a healthy amount of targets, especially with Shorts on the sideline, and comes at a much cheaper price. Jacksonville ranks 28th in DVOA against WR1, and 27th in DVOA against WR2, so there’s no noticeable difference in how poorly they cover different types of receivers.

The Takeaway: Hoyer and his top two wideouts are great options at their respective positions this weekend, as Houston will need to throw to win, and the Jaguars will offer little resistance.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans						Indianapolis Colts
Saturday – 1 p.m.						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.3	28	21	28		Offense	20.2	25	22	30
Opp. Defense	25.6	26	28	24		Opp. Defense	26.2	27	10	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	24	21	29	21		Tennessee Titans	28	6	24	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	60	36	3	425		Hilton	127	65	5	1080
Douglas	70	34	2	386		Moncrief	103	63	6	735
Green-Beckham	62	30	3	528		Johnson	71	37	3	457
Walker	119	85	6	994		Fleener	77	47	2	403

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marcus Mariota, Kendall Wright (TEN, Out), Matt Hasselbeck, Andrew Luck (IND, Out),

TEN Matchup Rating: 4.0
IND Matchup Rating: 4.5

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: Zach Mettenberger (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) will make his fourth start of the season in Week 17, and will want to improve upon the 53% completion percentage he earned last time out against the Texans. He was extremely inefficient in that game, as he was in previous starts this season, and a relief appearance against New England represents his only game with anything resembling a useful fantasy output. The Colts are a middle of the road pass defense, ranking 16th in DVOA and 15th in fantasy points allowed. That’s not a favorable enough situation to target Mettenberger.

Running Game: David Cobb (FD $4,500, DK $3,500) and David Cobb (FD $4,500, DK $3,500) will split the touches out of the backfield for the Titans in a game they will likely lose handily, even when considering the issues at QB for the Colts. Even if you have faith that the Titans may keep this one close, neither back has reliable volume, and the Colts rank 12th against the run according to Football Outsiders and numberFire. Again, this is not a favorable situation for this running back group, which has scored nine total touchdowns all season.

Pass Catchers: The Colts have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, and with Kendall Wright likely out, the targets will almost certainly be focused on Harry Douglas (FD $5,100, DK $4,000), Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,700, DK $3,800) and Delanie Walker (FD $6,500, DK $5,600). The latter has been the best fantasy asset on the Titans all season, and has a good enough matchup to trust him, especially after last week’s 15-target game. The two wideouts are unreliable, but have potential against a defense that has let opposing WRs into the end zone 19 times in 15 games. It’s unlikely that multiple pass catchers reach value, and since Walker appears to be the focal point of the passing attack, he’s the preferred play.

The Takeaway: Delanie Walker is a star tight end who saw heavy volume with Mettenberger last week and gets a favorable enough matchup this week. DGB and Harry Douglas are tough to trust, but either could steal a touchdown or haul in a long pass or two and hit value, but are much riskier than Walker.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: The Colts will start either Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman under center in this game. Even if either of those players are available on your DFS site of choice, they’re not a wise investment, even against a bad Titans defense.

Running Game: Frank Gore (FD $6,600, DK $4,000) has never been more important for the Colts, who will need him to carry the offense with their injury issues at QB. Gore will face a Titans defense that ranks 21st in DVOA, but that is contradicted by a ranking of 10th according to numberFire, and a DVP ranking of 26th. The Titans have limited production from opposing backs all season, especially through the air, but it was Gore who scored two of the eight total touchdowns they’ve allowed over the course of this season. It is possible to put together a solid performance against the Titans as a running back, and Gore essentially has to for Indy to have any shot at setting into motion their unlikely bid for a playoff berth. Gore is a solid tournament play, but tough to trust for cash games given some of his terrible rushing totals in recent weeks.

Pass Catchers: With all of the uncertainty at QB, it’s best to just avoid the pass catchers for the Colts, as well. Both T.Y. Hilton (FD $6,500, DK $5,600) and Donte Moncrief (FD $6,100, DK $4,000) are dealing with injuries that will limit their practice time with whoever starts at QB, which doesn’t set up well, even against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Moncrief’s price on DK is appealing, and if you’re dead set on picking a player from this passing attack, that’s where I would look to invest.

The Takeaway: Frank Gore and Donte Moncrief are the only Colts worthy of consideration in what should be a very ugly game that Indy still ought to win.