NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Two
| Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 40 | 13.75 | -12.5 | 40 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.9 | 29 | 31 | 12 | Offense | 23.9 | 10 | 15 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Defense | 19.8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 1 | 12 | 1 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 7 | 17 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Inman | 34 | 20 | 1 | 249 | Thielen | 136 | 85 | 4 | 1,216 | |
| Wright | 83 | 54 | 1 | 585 | Diggs | 89 | 58 | 7 | 784 | |
| Bellamy | 41 | 23 | 1 | 346 | Treadwell | 32 | 17 | 0 | 184 | |
| Sims | 28 | 15 | 1 | 180 | Rudolph | 78 | 56 | 8 | 529 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
CHI Matchup Rating: 3.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.0
Chicago Bears
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention
Team Breakdown: This is a tough spot for the Bears. They are traveling on the road in a meaningless game, and those are generally spots we will want to avoid in the final week of the season. They also have to face a team that is playing for a playoff bye and has a good defense. Kendall Wright generated some steam as a popular value last week, but he came down to earth with just four catches for 27 yards against the Browns. We have not seen a WR #1 develop on this team all year, and I wouldn’t expect that to change here. The best hope the Bears have is to try to establish the run early and get a lead via the legs of Jordan Howard, but I have my doubts about whether that is even possible. As we have seen many times, Howard has an extremely low floor in games where the Bears fall behind. I’ll pass.
Elite Plays: Vikings defense
Secondary Plays: None
Minnesota Vikings
Playoff Scenarios: Clinch the #2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye with a win OR with a loss by Carolina, a win by New Orleans or, a win by the L.A. Rams. The Vikings should go all out to win here, as the seed is not yet secured and this game is an early kickoff.
Team Breakdown: Minnesota has plenty to play for in this game, so we can safely target their offense based on the motivation factor. The matchup is average, at best, against an underrated Bears defense, but I will still have plenty of Minnesota exposure in Week 17. They carry a high 26 point implied team total, but the fact that they are double digit favorites does give me some pause in recommending players from the passing game. Adam Thielen remains the safest play here, though his production has slipped a bit over the last two weeks. This is a great opportunity to buy in at low ownership as a result of recency bias. Stefon Diggs has scored in the last two games and is also in play. You can safely pair either guy with Case Keenum in GPP formats. The running game is also in play, and this could be a contest where Latavius Murray is used a lot as a clock killer in the second half. He did struggle in the first meeting between these teams, but he had three times as many carries as Jerrick McKinnon with a positive game flow last week against Green Bay. Murray is my preferred target of the two here.
Elite Plays: Adam Thielen
Secondary Plays: Case Keenum, Stefon Diggs, Jerick McKinnon, Latavius Murray
| New York Jets | New England Patriots | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 45 | 14.75 | -15.5 | 45 | 30.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.5 | 22 | 23 | 17 | Offense | 28.8 | 3 | 1 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.3 | 7 | 32 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 23 | 22 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 27 | 17 | 30 | 11 | New York Jets | 28 | 19 | 21 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Anderson | 111 | 62 | 7 | 939 | Cooks | 103 | 60 | 6 | 1,003 | |
| Kearse | 95 | 60 | 5 | 751 | Hogan | 59 | 34 | 5 | 439 | |
| Hansen | 12 | 8 | 0 | 79 | Amendola | 79 | 57 | 2 | 616 | |
| Seferian-Jenkins | 74 | 50 | 3 | 357 | Gronkowski | 105 | 69 | 8 | 1,083 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ TE) – Doubtful (Ribs) / Matt Forte (NYJ RB) – Questionable (Knee) / Rex Burkhead (NE RB) – Out (Knee) / Mike Gillislee (NE RB) – Out (Knee) / James White (NE RB) – Questionable (Ankle) / Chris Hogan (NE WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.0
NEP Matchup Rating: 8.0
New York Jets
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention.
Team Breakdown: This offense has gone in the tank with Bryce Petty under center. He has completed less than 50% of his passes and has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game. The Patriots also still need to win in order to guarantee home field advantage in the playoffs. This game could get ugly in a hurry. The only player even remotely on my radar is Bilal Powell, who is a capable pass catcher and has been the best performer out of this backfield over the last few weeks. He had 19 carries (to eight for Matt Forte and none for Elijah McGuire) last week, piling up 145 yards and a touchdown in the process. Outside of Powell, the best play from this side of the game is the Patriots defense. Even though they aren’t a mega talented unit this year, they should still handle this game easily, and a big lead in the second half would increase the opportunities for big defensive plays.
Elite Plays: Patriots defense
Secondary Plays: Bilal Powell
New England Patriots
Playoff Scenarios: Clinch #1 seed in AFC and home field advantage with a win or a Steelers loss. They will play to win.
Team Breakdown: Fire up your Patriots. With a great matchup and everything to play for, there is no reason to be concerned. Their 30 point implied team total is the highest of the week. Tom Brady has been limited in practice with an Achilles injury, but as of now there doesn’t appear to be a worry about his status. Dion Lewis was absolutely fantastic with both James White and Rex Burkhead sidelined last week, so keep an eye on White’s status. If White is out again, Lewis is a top play in any format. Mike Gillislee would also become a touchdown-dependent value play. Rob Gronkowski has been very solid over the last two weeks and should continue to smash against a Jets team that he scored twice against in Week 6. The biggest risk/reward play from this team is Brandin Cooks, who has been nothing short of frustrating for DFS owners all year long. He is a GPP-only option at this point.
THURSDAY UPDATE – Gillislee has also been absent from practice this week due to injury. He has now been ruled out. It could be the Dion Lewis show in this one.
Elite Plays: Tom Brady, Dion Lewis, Rob Gronkowski
Secondary Plays: Brandin Cooks / James White (if active)
| Washington Redskins | New York Giants | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 38 | 20.5 | 3 | 38 | 17.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.1 | 14 | 9 | 26 | Offense | 15.2 | 31 | 17 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.2 | 29 | 30 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 26 | 13 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 32 | 23 | 24 | 32 | Washington Redskins | 16 | 26 | 10 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Crowder | 96 | 63 | 3 | 764 | Shepard | 84 | 59 | 2 | 731 | |
| Doctson | 68 | 31 | 6 | 465 | Lewis | 72 | 36 | 2 | 416 | |
| Grant | 60 | 43 | 4 | 550 | Rudolph | 17 | 7 | 0 | 72 | |
| Davis | 65 | 41 | 3 | 628 | Engram | 115 | 64 | 6 | 722 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Sterling Shepard (NYG WR) – Out (Neck) / Tavarres King (NYG WR) – Out (Concussion) / Evan Engram (NYG TE) – Out (Rib)
WAS Matchup Rating: 5.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 5.0
Washington Redskins
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention
Team Breakdown: For some reason which I will not understand, the Redskins threw Samaje Perine out there at far less than 100% a week ago, but he struggled to get anything going and injured his Achilles in the process. When you add that to his existing groin injury, it would surprise me to see him take the field in a meaningless Week 17 road game. Assuming he is out, we can get back on the Kapri Bibbs bandwagon, which would have been full last week had Perine been sidelined. Keep very close tabs on this situation. The passing game is also a reasonable place to look against a Giants secondary that is in shambles right now. Everyone hates everyone else, Eli Apple has been suspended, and this episode of The Young and the Restless is brought to you by Tampax. I’m pretty sure that’s the first time we’ve ever had a tampon reference in a RotoGrinders article, so I expect some sort of award for this. Anyhow, the likes of Kirk Cousins, Josh Doctson, and Jamison Crowder are also in play. It’s hard to peg between the two wide receivers, but both are reasonable GPP pairings with their quarterback. This is the best matchup the Washington offense has seen in a while, so I don’t mind targeting some pieces despite the fact that the game is meaningless.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Perine is good to go. This backfield will be a messy one, with Perine likely leading the way. I will avoid this spot.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Kirk Cousins, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson
New York Giants
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention
Team Breakdown: Evan Engram has a rib injury. Sterling Shepard has a neck injury. This offense is a mess and did not score a single point last week against the Cardinals. I could see opting for a value piece at receiver if both Engram and Shepard sit, but that’s about as far as I will go. Roger Lewis would be the best bet for production after he saw 11 targets in Week 16, but his production hasn’t really been all that impressive. The Washington defense is certainly in play here, as well. This game has a meager Vegas total of just 37 points, and the Giants are three point home underdogs.
SATURDAY UDPATE – Shepard, Engram, and King are all OUT for the Giants. Roger Lewis is in play as a risk/reward WR option.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Roger Lewis, Redskins defense
| Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 43 | 23 | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.7 | 24 | 32 | 6 | Offense | 17.7 | 26 | 18 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 28 | 17 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 22.9 | 18 | 14 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 18 | 28 | 6 | 31 | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 32 | 5 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 75 | 46 | 3 | 665 | Landry | 151 | 103 | 8 | 895 | |
| Jones | 71 | 25 | 2 | 291 | Parker | 89 | 51 | 1 | 606 | |
| Thompson | 65 | 36 | 2 | 532 | Stills | 98 | 55 | 6 | 813 | |
| Clay | 66 | 43 | 2 | 494 | Fasano | 13 | 11 | 1 | 106 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Damien Williams (MIA RB) – Doubtful (Shoulder) / DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
Buffalo Bills
Playoff Scenarios: Still alive for AFC Wild Card spot. The Bills need a win plus some help to get a playoff spot. They will obviously play to win.
Team Breakdown: The Bills will give it their all here in an attempt to make the playoffs, and they draw a prime matchup against a Dolphins team that has given up at least 24 points in nine of their last ten games. Expect the offense to continue to roll through LeSean McCoy, who has logged a ton of touches this month. The Bills will not go away from their workhorse in a must win game. With Todd Gurley out of the picture this week, McCoy checks in as a top three overall running back option for me. The passing game is much more difficult to trust, but Tyrod Taylor is a reasonable tournament option if you are looking to save some salary at the position. I could even see Kelvin Benjamin as a risk/reward GPP value in this one, while Charles Clay is on the value radar at tight end.
Elite Plays: LeSean McCoy
Secondary Plays: Tyrod Taylor, Kelvin Benjamin, Charles Clay
Miami Dolphins
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention
Team Breakdown: Outside of an inspired performance against the Patriots and the emergence of Kenyan Drake, this team has called it quits this season. The quarterback play has been awful. The receivers have not been good outside of Jarvis Landry. The defense is bad. With a matchup on tap against a team that needs a win, I am not confident in the Dolphins at all in this spot. Landry has been a solid PPR asset all year, and he now leads the NFL in receptions with 103. He’s a reasonable target in this game and had 10 grabs for 99 yards in the first meeting between these two teams. Drake has also established himself as a reasonable mid-range running back target with Damien Williams on the shelf. Outside of those two players, I am completely off this team.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Kenyan Drake, Jarvis Landry (DK)
