NFL Grind Down: Week 2 - Page Two
| Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43 | 22.25 | 1.5 | 43 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.0 | 23 | 14 | 12 | Offense | 29.0 | 5 | 29 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 7.0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 26.0 | 23 | 18 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 10 | 4 | 18 | Tennessee Titans | 21 | 11 | 27 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 9 | 5 | 0 | 71 | Lee | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Decker | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 | Hurns | 4 | 3 | 0 | 42 | |
| Davis | 10 | 6 | 0 | 69 | Cole | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Walker | 9 | 7 | 0 | 76 | Lewis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: None
TEN Matchup Rating: 5.0
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Titans hit the ground …. with a thud on opening week. The Raiders/Titans game had all the makings of a shootout, but we saw a game with just three total touchdowns and seven field goals. That’s not what we are paying for in DFS! I still like the long-term potential for Marcus Mariota this year, but this week’s matchup isn’t exactly easy. The Jaguars might have the most quietly elite defense in the league, as they racked up ten sacks while stifling the Texans a week ago. This will be a tough test for Tennessee on the road, and I don’t envision their offense going off for a ton of points. Mariota played well in the one meeting in which he played a year ago when these teams squared off, but this is a new and improved Jacksonville defense. I respect them enough that I will avoid Mariota this week.
Running Back: Week 1 running back usage for Tennessee went pretty much according to plan, with DeMarco Murray handling around three-quarters of the snaps and Derrick Henry handling the balance. Henry has all the talent in the world, so I expect him to start breathing down Murray’s neck more as the season goes along, but Murray remains the guy for now. The seat may start to get a little warmer if Murray struggles, and he didn’t play well in the opener. I prefer spending up for other running back options in Week 2, though I wouldn’t fault you for looking Murray’s way.
Pass Catchers: With the addition of A.J. Bouye, this Jacksonville secondary could be the most improved unit in the entire league. They are not going to be an easy unit to throw on, especially with Bouye locking down opposing #1 receivers. I have no idea if he will shadow anybody this week, especially since Tennessee lacks a true top-end wide receiver. If we get wind that there may be a shadow situation, the wide receivers avoiding Bouye’s coverage would get a boost. I suppose you could target Delanie Walker at tight end, but again, this doesn’t seem like an elite spot.
The Takeaway: Jacksonville’s defense is very good, and Tennessee’s offense didn’t look good in Week 1, so this seems like a spot to fade them. Perhaps they can get back on track next week, and perhaps the skill players will come even cheaper for DFS purposes if Week 2 is yet another struggle. DeMarco Murray and Delanie Walker are reasonable plays, but nobody else really grabs my attention at all.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The Jaguars may have rolled over the Texans in Week 1, but it was largely due to their defense and Leonard Fournette. It certainly wasn’t due to Blake Bortles, who barely won the job coming out of the preseason. His numbers in the first game? 11-for-21 with 125 yards passing and one touchdown. That is not going to help you win any daily fantasy contests, and the Jags will look to hide Bortles and his weaknesses anytime they can. The loss of Allen Robinson isn’t going to help. Don’t bother looking here.
Running Back: Your surprise Week 1 total workhorse was Leonard Fournette. While I wasn’t surprised to see him get a lot of touches, I certainly did not expect him to hit almost 30. Fournette racked up 26 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown in the big win, and he saw three targets in the passing game in a contest where the Jaguars only threw the ball 21 times. There are some mild concerns this week, as T.J. Yeldon is expected to return, and the game flow likely isn’t going to be nearly as favorable this week. Still, after a solid debut, Fournette is a fine play in all formats. He’s on the fringe of being a top eight or nine overall running back option.
Pass Catchers: Although I am not a fan of Blake Bortles, we do at least have to talk about the Jacksonville receiving corps. With Allen Robinson out for the season, there will be plenty of targets up for grabs. We also have to temper expectations, though, as there will be games where Bortles really struggles, especially with the limited receiving depth. Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee will be the primary receivers and should both step into every down roles. Both are worth a look as value plays in a decent matchup, with Lee being the higher upside option. Marcedes Lewis doesn’t get nearly enough volume to be relevant.
The Takeaway: After their big Week 1 win, I am actually surprised that the Jaguars are home underdogs here, but it shows that we can’t overreact to one performance. Blake Bortles didn’t suddenly get any better, and the Jaguars lost their best wide receiver for the season. That gives us some potential value with Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee, and both of them are nice values in this spot. Leonard Fournette is also in play, but I don’t expect him to play as well as he did a week ago, nor do I expect him to get 29 touches again with T.J. Yeldon back in the mix.
| Philadelphia Eagles | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 47.5 | 21.5 | -4.5 | 47.5 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.0 | 4 | 6 | 24 | Offense | 42.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 24 | 20 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 17.0 | 9 | 16 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 28 | 19 | 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 12 | 14 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 7 | 3 | 0 | 38 | Hill | 8 | 7 | 1 | 133 | |
| Smith | 3 | 1 | 0 | 30 | Conley | 4 | 2 | 0 | 43 | |
| Agholor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 86 | Wilson | 5 | 5 | 0 | 37 | |
| Ertz | 8 | 8 | 0 | 93 | Kelce | 7 | 5 | 0 | 40 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: None
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
KC Matchup Rating: 7.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Carson Wentz was one of the best point-per-dollar scorers at the quarterback position last week, and he remains affordably priced on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft. He might be one of those quarterbacks that takes a big leap in his second full season, which is no surprise given his limited big game experience in college. Of course, the biggest hurdle this week is the matchup against a Chiefs team that stifled Tom Brady on the Thursday Night Football opener last week. However, they suffered a huge loss with Eric Berry out for the season, and that absence is going to make the underbelly of this defense very exploitable. I don’t mind Wentz as a mid-range play, but I don’t think I can pull the trigger in cash games here. He’s more of a GPP option.
Running Back: It was a big surprise to me, but the Eagles appear somewhat poised to use LeGarrette Blount as their feature back. He didn’t play well last week, rushing for just 46 yards on 14 carries with nary a single run longer than seven yards. He is a zero in the passing game and will still using passing down work to the other running backs. I also don’t expect the Eagles to be playing with a lead here, so we might see more of Sproles and Smallwood this week. Continue to avoid this unit for now, as it’s not like we are missing out on massive upside anyhow.
Pass Catchers: If you ask ten different people for their thoughts on Nelson Agholor, you will very likely hear ten different opinions. Those range from the very positive: that last week’s performance was fantastic because he scored a long touchdown and saw quite a few targets to the very negative: that last week’s performance means nothing because the long touchdown was on a fluky busted coverage. I lean somewhat toward the former, as he also had a few other big plays negated by good defense. It is clear that Agholor is going to be a focal point of this passing game, especially if extra coverage is rolled toward Alshon Jeffery. The best matchup here probably goes to Zach Ertz (again), as the Chiefs are going to be really weak in the middle with the loss of Eric Berry. That loss cannot be overstated, as he shut down Rob Gronkowski last week. All three are options this week, but I will rank them as Ertz, Agholor, and Jeffery on a projected points per dollar basis.
The Takeaway: The pass catchers carry the most appeal here. Zach Ertz gets a big boost thanks to the loss of Eric Berry, while Nelson Agholor remains a solid value play. I will be ignoring the running game until we see some clarity, and it’s not like there is a ton of upside there in any case.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: It is difficult to get an early read on his ownership, but the best way to do that at this point is to do some live drafts on the DRAFT app. I can tell you that based on that data, DFS players are drastically over-valuing Alex Smith. Was he fantastic on Monday against the Patriots? Yes. Does that change the fact that he has been nothing more than a game manager for multiple seasons in the NFL? Of course not. He has a ton of talent at his disposal, and his numbers are going to be better this year because of it, but this still feels like a clear case of chasing points. Don’t be the person that makes that mistake, and enjoy the fact that Smith is going to be over-owned in GPP formats this week.
Running Back: Speaking of players that are going to be over-owned this week, enter Kareem Hunt. While I feel comfortable potentially fading Alex Smith, I cannot say the same thing about Hunt. He got a ton of buzz in camp and during the preseason, and his projected role went sky high when Spencer Ware was lost for the season thanks to an injury during one of the preseason games. Hunt is a dynamic athlete, and we have seen RB #1’s shine under Andy Reid before. Reid is not afraid to use a bellcow back, and Hunt exploded with 246 total yards and three total touchdowns in the opener, as he almost topped 100 yards rushing AND receiving. His snap total was surprisingly low for his production at just 58%, but I am not concerned about that in the long-term. This is a super talented running back, and his price tag will likely only continue to climb. Ride the wave until that price increase hits.
Pass Catchers: Tyreek Hill is capable of taking any touch to the house, and he will have GPP appeal every single week. One defensive mistake could very easily lead to a 75 yard touchdown. The Eagles don’t have an elite cornerback to shut him down, either, so Hill certainly carries some appeal here (though he will likely be over-owned, too). Travis Kelce should rebound after a tough performance in Week 1, though the Eagles were the best team in the NFL against opposing tight ends a year ago. Hill is the primary target here, and the other wide receivers are all low upside, low target options.
The Takeaway: The Chiefs have a pair of truly dynamic athletes in Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, and both players are capable of huge performances pretty much any time they take the field. I am fine with firing up either one of them in any format this week. I will not be over-drafting Alex Smith after one good week, and I don’t love the matchup for Travis Kelce, but it’s hard to actively say to fade them given that the Chiefs have an implied team total of 26 points. I prefer Hill and Hunt, but Kelce is a reasonable target at tight end if you want to pay up and can’t get to Gronkowski (more on him shortly).
| New England Patriots | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 54.5 | 30.75 | 7 | 54.5 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 7 | 11 | 9 | Offense | 19.0 | 17 | 8 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.0 | 25 | 29 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 42.0 | 29 | 30 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 28 | 21 | 29 | 21 | New England Patriots | 30 | 30 | 26 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooks | 7 | 3 | 0 | 88 | Thomas | 8 | 5 | 0 | 45 | |
| Hogan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | Ginn | 5 | 4 | 0 | 53 | |
| Amendola | 7 | 6 | 0 | 100 | Coleman | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | |
| Gronkowski | 6 | 2 | 0 | 33 | Fleener | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Danny Amendola – NE WR – Out (Concussion)
NE Matchup Rating: 9.5
NO Matchup Rating: 7.0
New England Patriots
Quarterback: This game will undoubtedly be one of the most targeted games of the week, and for good reason. The Patriots have a mammoth 31 point implied team total, which is one of the largest I have ever seen for a road team. The potential is certainly there, as the Saints are devoid of talent on defense, while the Patriots should be “angry” after being humbled at home in their season opener. I don’t buy into that narrative too much, but I do buy into the fact that the Saints defense is atrocious. After all, Sam Bradford of all quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards against this defense. Imagine what Tom Brady can do! I expect the Patriots to play with tempo and confidence in this game, and Brady is definitely the top quarterback on the board. I don’t think you absolutely have to play him, because there are several quality quarterback options on the board, but Brady is still the top guy on an overall projected points basis.
Running Back: Here are the snap counts from Week 1 for the four-headed monster at running back in New England:
James White – 43 snaps
Mike Gillislee – 24 snaps
Rex Burkhead – 10 snaps
Dion Lewis – 6 snaps
In short, James White played more snaps than the other three running backs combined. While a lot of that was attributable to the Patriots falling behind, there is a lot we can gain from that. First off, we can cross Burkhead and Lewis off the list for now. Second, we know that White should be the guy when the Patriots are behind, while it is logical to conclude that Gillislee will be used when they are ahead. I expect Gillislee to be over-drafted this week because he luckboxed his way to three touchdowns last week, but White is the guy I want to target. He remains super cheap everywhere (especially on DraftKings and FantasyDraft), and the upside is there in the passing game. If the Patriots use tempo this week, as I expect, White should be the biggest beneficiary in the backfield. Say that ten times fast!
Pass Catchers: The Saints got torched by Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph last week, and there was enough volume to go around to support all three. Diggs scored twice, Rudolph scored once, and Thielen hauled in a ton of passes. I absolutely love Brandin Cooks in this matchup, and the revenge narrative is simply icing on the cake. I expect a massive game here, while both Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski should rebound after dud performances against the Chiefs. It would not surprise me to see the Patriots put up 375 yards in the air in this game, which would be enough for multiple pass catchers to make value. There’s nothing wrong with any of them.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Amendola’s absence only solidifies the value for all the other receivers. James White and Rex Burkhead get boosts as pass-catching backs that could play some slot WR. White is still the guy you want there.
The Takeaway: Fire away with all the players you want here. The Saints are a sieve on defense, and the Patriots have a massive team total. Brady, White, Cooks, Gronkowski, and Hogan are all in play, with Cooks being one of my favorite overall plays of the week. This game should feature plenty of offensive fireworks.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: It is certainly too early to make any conclusions, but is the Patriots defense poised to be (gasp)… below average? They showed several weaknesses against the Chiefs, and they might have trouble with speed and explosiveness. Drew Brees doesn’t bring said speed and explosiveness, but he does bring his always positive home splits and a nice ability to throw a football. The Saints will likely be playing from behind thanks to their awful defense, and we might see Brees sling the ball 45 times in this game. He is probably better off used as part of a game stack or mini-stack, as he will likely be a big part of any potential shootout. There are safer targets in cash games, but the GPP appeal is certainly there with Brees.
Running Back: It took Adrian Peterson all of one quarter to get upset about his usage in New Orleans, but I’m not exactly sure why he expected anything different than what he got. After all, it has been quite some time since Peterson has been a factor in the NFL, and Sean Payton is notorious for his frustrating usage of running backs. Given the amount of toys at his disposal with Peterson, Kamara, and of course Mark Ingram, this is going to be an impossible spot to peg — barring injury to someone. Throw in the likely pass-heavy game script for the Saints, and you can easily pass here.
Pass Catchers: Michael Thomas was extremely over-owned on the Monday night slate with a matchup against a shut-down corner in Xavier Rhodes, and his predictable struggles in that game might serve to lower his ownership this week. I will stress that you should not freak out about that one poor game. Rhodes has done his share of shutting down opposing wide receivers. Thomas wasn’t the first, and he won’t be the last. Thomas is a great GPP pairing with Brees and can be used in cash games as well. He should see a large target share moving forward. Ted Ginn is always in the GPP conversation because of his big play ability, and I will continue to target Coby Fleener as a value tight end play with Willie Snead on suspension.
The Takeaway: This game is the most likely shootout of the week, and the Saints passing game tends to thrive in said shootouts. I will avoid the three-headed trio of running backs, but Drew Brees is in play along with Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener in the passing game. Thomas should rebound in a more favorable matchup (though it’s still not ideal), while Fleener will continue to see more targets thanks to the suspension of Willie Snead. We could definitely see a 38-30 type game here.
| Minnesota Vikings | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 45.5 | 19.75 | -6 | 45.5 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | Offense | 21.0 | 13 | 12 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 12 | 14 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 13 | 23 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 | 8 | 13 | 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 15 | 14 | 16 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 8 | 7 | 2 | 93 | Brown | 11 | 11 | 0 | 182 | |
| Thielen | 10 | 9 | 0 | 157 | Bryant | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | |
| Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Rogers | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 | James | 8 | 6 | 2 | 41 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Sam Bradford – MIN QB – Questionable but expected to play (Knee)
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
PIT Matchup Rating: 6.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: If you simply based future predictions based on Week 1 performances, you might as well line up Sam Bradford and Alex Smith in the MVP race right now. Again, this is another spot where it’s important not to over-react to one week of data. Sam Bradford is not the next coming of Fran Tarkenton. He played the Saints. You can expect him to go back to his 250 yard, two touchdown ceiling moving forward, though the performance last week was nice to see. I’ll take my one week of profits and hop off the train before it derails.
Running Back: The rushing prop in Vegas last week for Dalvin Cook opened at 48 yards. I mentioned something on the Sunday Grinders Live show about this being far too low, and it ended up rising by about 15 yards by the time the game started on Monday. As it turns out, that was still far too low. Cook sliced and diced his way through the Saints defense to the tune of 22 carries for 127 yards, and he is an electric athlete. The sledding will be more difficult this week against a solid Pittsburgh front seven that shut down the Browns running game last week, but Cook remains under-priced in DFS. The matchup knocks him down a few notches, but he is still a reasonable target here.
Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs might be a top ten receiving talent in this league, and he would get a chance to show that talent more often with a better quarterback throwing the ball his way. If you don’t believe that, check out his highlight reel from the opening week victory. Adam Thielen has been a top 25 receiver since the middle of last year. Kyle Rudolph is one of the best red zone tight ends in the league. This team has weapons, but they will be highly owned this week because of their performances on Monday night. Thielen remains a nice bargain (especially on FanDuel), while Diggs and Rudolph are reasonably priced as well. The Steelers were the worst team in the league last year in DVOA against #1 wide receivers, and I don’t expect the addition of Joe Haden to make THAT much of a difference. Diggs is still the top play from this group.
The Takeaway: Stefon Diggs is going to be one of my favorite targets all year long, and that does not change with the Steelers on tap. Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook are still under-priced since the pricing for this week was set on most sites before their Monday night dominance, so this will be the last week to take advantage of that. While I like all these skill players, I still won’t be using Bradford at quarterback, as there are other similarly priced options that will be lower owned. I am not chasing one huge week from a league average (at best) quarterback. I’ll get my exposure to this team through the other skill players, and we also have to keep in mind that this is a much more difficult matchup in general than the one from a week ago.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Well, the Steelers offense didn’t exactly come out firing on all cylinders last week; they certainly didn’t perform as well as the aforementioned Vikings did. This game will provide another litmus test for recency bias, as the Steelers’ ownership will plummet while the Vikings’ ownership will soar, despite the fact that the Steelers are comfortable home favorites in this game. The Minnesota defense is very good, and while I don’t think they will shut the Steelers completely down, I respect this unit enough to avoid opposing quarterbacks against them. Ben Roethlsberger is simply too expensive, and there’s no reason to play him when you could spend up on Brady, Ryan, or Rodgers in more favorable matchups.
Running Back: Part of the reason why last week’s game was such a struggle was because Le’Veon Bell clearly looked rusty after returning from his weird holdout (or whatever you want to call it). Despite saying that he would play a full complement of snaps, the Steelers still worked him in with a 72% snap rate, whereas he was sitting at upwards of 90% last season. I do expect his snap count to increase this week, and the ownership will plummet after a poor game and with a difficult matchup on the horizon. Let’s not forget just how good Bell has been over the past few years. Don’t write him off after one bad game. His pass catching ability gives him a solid floor most weeks, and that Week 1 dud will likely be by far his worst outing of the year. He might even see more targets this week with Xavier Rhodes hounding Antonio Brown. This is a great spot to bank on a bounce-back, and the GPP ownership will be as low as we have seen in a long time.
Pass Catchers: The only reason the Steelers won against the Browns last week was because of the one man wrecking crew that was Antonio Brown. He single handedly helped win that game. The sledding shell be a lot tougher this week against the aforementioned Xavier Rhodes, and this definitely feels like a Martavis Bryant game. He could get loose for a big play in this one, and he did play on 83% of the snaps in the opener. He is definitely my preferred target here. I don’t pick on Rhodes often, and it certainly won’t be this week with how expensive Brown is. Don’t be sucked in by Jesse James and his two touchdown catches. James will be over-owned as a punt this week, though he did play on a ton of snaps and saw eight targets.
The Takeaway: Roethlisberger and Brown are fades for me here, as I respect the shut-down ability of Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes. I do like the bounce-back potential for Le’Veon Bell, and he is a steal if he is going to be low owned in GPPs. In the passing game, Martavis Bryant is my preferred option. However, I won’t have massive exposure to a Steelers team that is facing a very good defensive unit.
