NFL Grind Down: Week 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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Implied Team Totals
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Houston Texans | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 38 | 16.25 | -5.5 | 38 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 7.0 | 27 | 27 | 13 | Offense | 0.0 | 30 | 26 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 15 | 1 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 29.0 | 25 | 2 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | 25 | 5 | 6 | Houston Texans | 8 | 27 | 1 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 16 | 7 | 1 | 55 | Green | 10 | 5 | 0 | 74 | |
| Strong | LaFell | 5 | 3 | 0 | 24 | |||||
| Miller | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Boyd | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Baylis | Eifert | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |||||
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Ryan Griffin – HOU TE – Out (Concussion) / Will Fuller – HOU WR – Out (Shoulder)
HOU Matchup Rating: 3.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Houston Texans
Quarterback: The season opener last Thursday did not set up as a game where we could avoid the Thursday game and gain an edge on the field. As we all know, players in the Thursday game usually tend to be over-owned in DFS contests because people want to get a sweat with the early start. This week’s game, however, does set up as a potential Thursday fade spot. We have a low Vegas total of just 38 points in this game, and Houston has one of the lowest team totals of the week. It’s also a tough spot for them on a short week, as they will either be starting an underwhelming quarterback in Tom Savage or a rookie who just made his first NFL appearance four days prior in Deshaun Watson. Either way, this seems like a lose/lose spot for the Texans. Watson has the most talent, but the short week would really hamper him as a player with limited NFL experience. The team has unofficially given Watson the nod, but there is no way you will get me to touch this spot with a ten foot pole.
Running Back: With the Texans getting slaughtered by the Jaguars in the opener, we didn’t really get a chance to see what the running game could do. Lamar Miller carried some appeal in that game with a potential favorable game script, but the coaching staff has now come out and said that D’Onta Foreman will get more carries going forward. While this is still likely Miller’s backfield to lead, it is fair to question whether he will see a true three-down role. His upside is limited even when he is getting a full complement of touches, and I certainly don’t want to take a chance on him in a game where the Texans have an implied team total of just under 17 points.
Pass Catchers: It appears as though DeAndre Hopkins might see a slight boost in value with Deshaun Watson under center, as he repeatedly looked Hopkins’ way after entering the game last week. Hopkins saw a whopping 16 targets in the game, which was 44% of the team’s pass attempts. What Hopkins loses in efficiency, he makes up for with volume, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. The Texans have literally no reliable receiving threats outside of Hopkins for as long as Will Fuller is out, and Hopkins is the only Houston player on my radar here.
The Takeaway: Feel free to play DeAndre Hopkins thanks to his sure-fire volume, but there is absolutely no reason to look at anyone else on this squad. Deshaun Watson is likely going to struggle in his first start, especially on a short week. I have no interest in the running game with Lamar Miller facing workload questions and Houston owning such a low team total.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: There was some buzz around Andy Dalton as a potential value play in DFS this season, and that buzz has come crashing to the earth in a matter of one week. Dalton looked like an incompetent rookie in the opener, throwing four interceptions and turning the ball over five times against the Ravens. Even though Houston’s secondary appears like it is going to be much weaker without A.J. Bouye, we need to see some results out of Dalton before we attempt to go here. There are better options in all formats.
Running Back: Jeremy Hill was tabbed as the Bengals “starter” heading into the opening week, and of course he saw the fewest snaps of any of the three Cincinnati running backs. Giovani Bernard led the way with 29, Joe Mixon logged 22, and Hill saw just ten. Part of this was because the Bengals fell way behind in the game, and Hill tends to get the short end of the stick in those situations. What we do know, however, is that this is going to be some ugly three man committee for now. A three man committee backfield is an easy fade, especially when said backfield plays on Thursday night. Even though Leonard Fournette ran well against this Houston defense last week, I have no interest here.
Pass Catchers: Number one receivers should have a much easier time performing well against Houston this year thanks to the loss of A.J. Bouye, and elite top receivers get an even larger bump. Although I am not high on this game in general, Green is a viable roster candidate. He has 150+ yard upside and of course has touchdown ability anytime he steps on the field. The rest of the Cincinnati receiving corps is ugly, so I do not have a lot of interest there. In many ways, the Cincinnati WR situation parallels that of Houston in that they have one great receiver, one injured receiver (John Ross is already hurt for Cincinnati), and not a whole lot else. Tyler Eifert always has potential at the tight end position, but there are better plays this week.
The Takeaway: This is definitely a “fade Thursday” kind of week for me. I am not interested in a whole lot on either side of the ball, and both defenses could be used as viable plays. The Houston defense should be better than they were a week ago against Jacksonville, though A.J. Green is interesting if you want a piece of offense from this game. Outside of Hopkins and Green, the entirety of my interest is on the defenses.
| Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 41 | 16.75 | -7.5 | 41 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 19 | 17 | 25 | Offense | 20.0 | 16 | 30 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 16 | 19 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 8 | 6 | 1 | Cleveland Browns | 17 | 2 | 20 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Coleman | 6 | 5 | 1 | 53 | Maclin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 56 | |
| Britt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | Wallace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Louis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 32 | Perriman | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| DeValve | 5 | 4 | 0 | 42 | Watson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: None
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: DeShone Kizer played about as well as we could have expected in his first NFL game, and he accounted for one rushing and one passing touchdown against the Steelers. He completed 67% of his passes and had five rushing attempts in the game, and he is going to have upside with his legs this year. However, I am not going to pull the trigger on him in a road game against a Ravens defense that appears to be very solid this year. They shut out the aforementioned Andy Dalton and the Bengals a week ago, and this is a tall task for the rookie quarterback. There are going to be games where Kizer is worth a look as a value pick, but this is not going to be one of those weeks.
Running Back: It appears as though the Browns are converting Duke Johnson to a full-time receiver role, which means the backfield snaps should be very secure for Isaiah Crowell. This is a massive boost to his long-term outlook, with only plodder Matthew Dayes behind him. Crowell really struggled in the opener against the Steelers, but he did handle 17 carries to just three for Dayes, so this is Crowell’s backfield. Unfortunately, he draws a very difficult matchup here with a Ravens defense that appears to be trending back to elite status. The ideal situation would be to fade Crowell this week, hope he struggles again, and then load up next week against the Colts. The time is coming, but we need to wait another week.
Pass Catchers: Corey Coleman impressed me last week with his game. He caught five of the six targets that came his way, including an impressive short touchdown catch in the second half. Coleman also blitzed the Ravens for 104 yards and two scores in one of their meetings last year. Coleman has the potential to be a big play receiver in this league with even average quarterback play, and his arrow is pointing upward with Kizer playing fairly well. Duke Johnson saw five targets last week, and no other receiver saw more than three. I am not ready to trust Johnson’s role just yet, so it’s either Coleman or bust here. While Coleman is by no means a must play against a tough set of corners, he is on the radar, especially for GPPs.
The Takeaway: This projects to be a game where the Browns will struggle, as they face a good defense on the road. Be patient for one more week, as a matchup with the Colts looms next week. We will be able to find some Cleveland value then, but I will largely ignore the unit this week. Baltimore’s defense is a top play, and the only Cleveland player I am interested in is a potential GPP dart on Corey Coleman.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: I’ve been fading Joe Flacco in DFS ever since he was elite… or, more accurately, ever since he was perceived as elite. The upside just isn’t there with Flacco, as it seems like 275 yards and a couple scores is about where the ceiling is. The Ravens are trying to go with more of a ground-and-pound approach this season, and that’s certainly a route they could take in a home game against Cleveland. Baltimore ran out to a multiple score lead early last week against the Bengals, and they ended up with 42 rushing attempts and just 17 passing attempts in the game. Flacco was a low upside option even in more of a pass happy offense. Now, it’s even easier to say no thanks.
Running Back: There could be some value to be had in the backfield thanks to the injury to Danny Woodhead, who might be out for a long time with a hamstring injury. It’s a tough blow for Baltimore, and they will now be forced to turn to some combination of Terrance West and Javorius Allen in the backfield. They split snaps and carries almost right down the middle last week, but Allen profiles as the higher upside option. He is also cheaper on almost every site, so I will give Allen the slight nod. Given the likely favorable game script here, we could see both players top 15 carries again, and both are in play as reasonably priced values at the running back position.
Pass Catchers: Part of the reason why Joe Flacco hasn’t put up better numbers in his career is because the receiving corps in Baltimore is always pedestrian, at best. Anytime Flacco has had an elite receiver to throw to, it has always been in the twilight of a career. First it was Anquan Boldin. Then it was Steve Smith Sr. Now, it is Jeremy Maclin. That isn’t to disparage Maclin. He is fine, but he’s not an electric, big play threat at this stage of his career. This offense also isn’t going to have enough passing volume to support consistent receiver play. I will easily pass on this whole unit, and the only games where it will be advisable to target Baltimore pass catchers is in games where they project to be playing from behind.
The Takeaway: The Ravens are going to run the ball more this year, and that is extremely evident given their play calling in Week 1. This projects as another game where they will have a lead, so expect a heavy dose of West and Allen with Danny Woodhead on the sidelines. I will take the discount and opt for Allen on most sites, but both running backs are viable plays in a favorable matchup. Outside of that, I have little to no interest. There isn’t enough passing volume to make anyone a safe play in the group.
| Buffalo Bills | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.0 | 13 | 16 | 1 | Offense | 23.0 | 10 | 25 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 3.0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 12.0 | 7 | 8 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | Buffalo Bills | 10 | 5 | 7 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 3 | 2 | 0 | 61 | Benjamin | 5 | 1 | 0 | 25 | |
| Jones | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | Funchess | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 | |
| Holmes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Shepard | 2 | 2 | 1 | 53 | |
| Clay | 9 | 4 | 1 | 53 | Olsen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: None
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 7.0
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: The Panthers have a better defense than a lot of people (myself included) give them credit for, and they are generally not a team that we should mess with in DFS. That has been a theme with the games on the first page of the Grind Down this week, but I promise that games with fantasy goodness are coming soon! Tyrod Taylor has a similar problem to Joe Flacco in that he lacks receiving weapons (especially now that Sammy Watkins is gone), and there tends to be a limited amount of passing volume with this team. The Bills want to take a run-first approach to their play, and though Taylor does not have the same skill set as Flacco, the results are often similar. This matchup might force the Bills to the air a little more than last week’s did, but I’m still not interested in Taylor. There are better options.
Running Back: It might seem like LeSean McCoy was a bust last week, but he quietly put up better numbers than you might realize. He handled a massive workload of 27 touches, and the only reason he got vultured by Tolbert on the goal line was because he briefly left with a wrist injury. Do not fall for the narrative that might circulate regarding Tolbert being the goal line back. The Bills have stated that they don’t mind feeding McCoy the ball 30 times, and his volume is as secure as any running back in the entire league. That gives McCoy an element of safety, but I’m not that excited about rolling him out there at a high price tag against a good defense. He is a top ten option this week, but he’s not much higher than that.
Pass Catchers: If you have a Buffalo wide receiver that you like, go right ahead and play them. I’m not interested. You could maybe interest me in a cheap Charles Clay share if saving money at tight end, as Clay saw 33% of the targets from Tyrod Taylor in the opener. While he wasn’t overly efficient with those targets, he did end up with four catches and a touchdown on the day. With most DFS players looking to pay up for Gronkowski or Kelce at the position, Clay is a fine value pick. He played on a very healthy 65 snaps (84%) in the first game, which is a great sign moving forward.
The Takeaway: LeSean McCoy is a safe running back selection thanks to his volume, but this is a difficult matchup. The passing game can largely be ignored, though I don’t hate Charles Clay as a value option at tight end. There’s not much to love here in a difficult road matchup, as the Bills have an implied team total of just 18 points in this game. Don’t go nuts.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Carolina was able to take the ball out of the air early last week after getting out to a big early lead against the 49ers, and there is also a concern about the overall health of Cam Newton. His upside is lower these days because the Panthers are not asking him to run as much near the goal line, so that is also working against him. The Bills don’t have a great defense, but this game has one of the lower totals of the week. I would put Cam as a top 15 or so option this week, but I’m not moving him much higher than that.
Running Back: Christian McCaffrey played on 70% of the offensive snaps last week, while Jonathan Stewart played on just 43% of them. Stewart is going to see the ball on a higher percentage of snaps, because he is generally in there to run the football. McCaffrey can be used all over the field and even has value as a decoy. While the numbers weren’t great for either guy on the ground last week, the usage for McCaffrey was encouraging. He saw 13 carries and seven additional targets in the passing game, and he will find greater yardage most weeks. I’m fully on board using him as a GPP play this week, while Stewart isn’t all that appealing.
Pass Catchers: Kelvin Benjamin was one of the biggest disappointments of the opening weekend, but much of that was due to the Panthers focusing on a run-heavy approach and a lot of short passes. Benjamin caught just one of five targets, and we’ve seen this movie before. Benjamin has long been a hype machine that disappoints when it counts, but his ownership is going to go from very high (last week) to very low (this week) because of that recency bias. That gives me an ear-perk in tournaments, where we know how low ownership and upside can go hand-in-hand. Benjamin is by no means a top play, but I would probably look to put him on 10-15% of my rosters if I was building a ton of lineups, especially given how poor the rest of the receiving corps is. Greg Olsen seems over-priced to me, and I prefer looking to Gronkowski or Kelce if spending up at tight end, especially since Buffalo ranked 11th in DVOA against the tight end position a year ago.
The Takeaway: Christian McCaffrey and Kelvin Benjamin are my favorite plays here, especially in GPP formats. Last week’s game wasn’t a true testament of Carolina’s offensive ability, as San Francisco did not threaten in the game at all. There’s quite a bit of risk if targeting players for cash games here, as I don’t love the floor for a lot of the players. Jonathan Stewart is going to be boom or bust depending on game flow and volume, while the rest of the receivers are dart throws at best.
| Arizona Cardinals | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | 44.5 | 26 | 7.5 | 44.5 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.0 | 10 | 9 | 27 | Offense | 9.0 | 25 | 24 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 46.0 | 30 | 27 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 35.0 | 28 | 24 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 16 | 24 | 24 | 17 | Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 18 | 30 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 13 | 6 | 0 | 74 | Hilton | 7 | 3 | 0 | 57 | |
| Brown | 9 | 4 | 0 | 32 | Moncrief | 4 | 1 | 0 | 50 | |
| Nelson | 6 | 5 | 1 | 43 | Rogers | |||||
| Gresham | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | Doyle | 3 | 2 | 0 | 41 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: John Brown – ARI WR – Out (Quad) / Jermaine Gresham – ARI TE – Questionable (Ribs) / Andrew Luck – IND QB – Out (Shoulder)
ARI Matchup Rating: 8.0
IND Matchup Rating: 2.0
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: The Colts appear to be one of the worst all around teams in football this season, and loading up on players against them is going to be a common theme. I have no idea what to expect out of the Cardinals now that they have lost David Johnson, but we should at least expect more duties to fall on the passing game. Carson Palmer — that means it’s time for you to step up. He threw three picks in the opener, and I constantly harped on his decline last year in this space, but the opportunity is going to be there for Palmer to chuck the ball 35-40 times a game with Johnson out of commission. The Indianapolis defense has leaks at every level, and I will be happy to use Palmer as a mid-tier quarterback option in DFS this week.
Running Back: Kerwynn Williams is going to be massive chalk this weekend with a cheap price tag of $4,800 on DrafKings, $6,100 on FanDuel, and $9,500 on FantasyDraft. While he will certainly get more opportunities with David Johnson out of the mix, I do have my reservations. Andre Ellington will be heavily involved on passing downs, and the Cardinals have already gone out and re-signed Chris Johnson. I will make two very clear points here: 1) Williams is not the slam dunk play that everyone is going to make him out to be but 2) Williams could easily have a fine game because of how awful the Colts defense is. I really wish the Cardinals had a tough matchup this week, because I would love to play the GPP fade in that spot. However, as it stands now, I might have to grab some ownership simply based on the matchup. Keep an eye out for news on a potential workload split as we get closer to kickoff.
Pass Catchers: We have a pair of good matchups to kick off the year for Larry Fitzgerald. He was under-priced and very popular last week, and he remains under-priced and will be very popular again this week. His target volume gives him a very safe floor, and he saw 13 targets in the game against Detroit. His size makes him a red zone weapon, and I expect him to find the end zone against the abysmal Colts defense. While he isn’t going to break 50+ yard plays any more, he is one of the safest wide receiver picks out there. J.J. Nelson put up the best overall stat line of the receiving corps last week, but he did that despite playing on just 40% of the snaps. John Brown played on 84% of them and appears to be the clear #2 behind Fitzgerald. I will be fading Nelson in all formats this week, especially since the Cardinals are likely to be leading this game in the second half. Brown and Fitzgerald are both viable options given the matchup, though.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Brown is injured and has been ruled OUT for this week. That changes the landscape entirely. Nelson becomes a much more interesting option, though his boom/bust nature does not make him safe for cash games. He is a very intriguing GPP option now. Larry Fitzgerald should see a ton of targets and is a great option in all formats.
The Takeaway: Matchups against the Colts are going to be ripe with fantasy goodness all year, and this week will be no exception. With David Johnson sidelined, expect Carson Palmer to do a little more heavy lifting, especially in the first half. Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown are solid WR targets, as it looks like a healthy Brown is the clear #2 receiving option. Kerwynn Williams might draws some attention as a value play, but he carries more risk than the general public perception seems to be letting on at this point.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Wow, how bad is this Colts team going to be without Andrew Luck? They got absolutely embarrassed by a less than stellar Rams squad in the opener in a game that wasn’t even competitive for any stretch. Scott Tolzien threw two pick-sixes in the game, and Jacoby Brissett might end up starting this game. Regardless of who starts the game, I would expect that person to really struggle against a good Cardinals secondary that is primed to recover from a poor performance against Matthew Stafford a week ago.
Running Back: I have no idea what to expect from this backfield on a week-to-week basis. Both Frank Gore and Marlon Mack logged ten carries a week ago, while Robert Turbin saw just two. However, garbage time came about pretty quickly in this game, so I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into Mack’s late touchdown. This still projects to be some sort of committee, and I have no interest in trying to pluck out an option against a rush defense that projects to be fairly stout. With the Colts likely to fall behind again, this is another easy fade spot.
Pass Catchers: Poor T.Y. Hilton. You could certainly argue that no receiver in the league that loses more value with the drop-off in quarterback play from starter to backup than Hilton (and the rest of the Colts receiving corps). The Colts completed just 11 passes in the loss to the Rams, and there is no reason to even consider anyone from this group against the Arizona secondary.
The Takeaway: This whole team is the easiest fade of the week. The Arizona defense should rebound nicely after a disappointing game a week ago, and they are a top tier defensive option in Week 2. Fade the Colts and don’t think twice about it.
RECAP: Boy, this page is filled with a whole lot of nothing with regard to offensive options. (Well, some of them are offensive). Sorry for that word play. Yikes. Better options await!