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NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Two

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Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings
7 8
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
-3.5 47 25.25 3.5 47 21.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 27.4 6 8 22 Offense 19.8 19 12 11
Opp. Defense 18.6 8 20 7 Opp. Defense 22.4 19 8 20
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Minnesota Vikings 8 2 18 23 Green Bay Packers 12 19 20 1
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Nelson 28 19 6 230 Diggs 36 23 4 395
Cobb 31 23 1 218 Thielen 40 29 0 392
Adams 39 23 4 285 Treadwell 10 5 0 42
Bennett 31 20 0 194 Rudolph 24 16 2 154

Notable injuries and suspensions: Ty Montgomery (GB RB) – Questionable (Ribs) / Sam Bradford (MIN QB) – Out (Ribs) / Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Out (Groin)

GB Matchup Rating: 6.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.0

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers was predictably great in last week’s game against the Cowboys, but this is a prime spot for a potential letdown. The Packers travel on the road to take on the Vikings in a key divisional road game. This is a tough place to play, and the Vikings boast a solid pass defense. Though they haven’t been great from a yardage perspective, they have allowed just seven passing touchdowns in five games. In my opinion, it just doesn’t make sense to pay the premium for Rodgers in a tough road game. He will almost certainly put up decent numbers, but you need a big performance at his current salary. Although he played well at home against this Minnesota team last year, he threw for just 217 yards and one touchdown at U.S. Bank Stadium. There are better point per dollar options in my book.

Running Backs: The breakout star of Week 5 was almost certainly Aaron Jones, who played on a ton of offensive snaps and looked downright impressive in the process. He rushed for 125 yards on 19 carries, though it must be noted that Dallas has struggled to contain running backs this season. With everyone talking about the potential for other cheap running backs this week, is everyone completely forgetting what Jones did? I know his price is elevated, and I likely won’t go here if Ty Montgomery is expected to play, but Jones is definitely on the radar if Montgomery remains sidelined. Keep an eye on this situation as we get closer to Sunday, as Jones is certainly worth a look as a low owned play if he draws another start.

SATURDAY UPDATE – We still don’t have clarity on Montgomery’s status, and it sounds like this will come down to a game time decision.

Pass Catchers: It will be interesting to see what happens with the Green Bay receiving crew this week. Remember last year, when the Vikings secondary supposedly disregarded orders to have Xavier Rhodes cover Jordy Nelson? That situation remains a mystery, but Nelson logged just two catches for nine yards after Rhodes starting shadowing him in the second half of that contest. You can bet that Rhodes will be glued to him this time around. That is an upgrade for Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, and Adams is coming off a 7/66/2 line on a healthy 11 targets last week. That even came in a contest where he wasn’t even a sure thing to suit up as we hit the weekend. He is my preferred option this week with the better of the individual matchups. Martellus Bennett saw only three targets and doesn’t appear to have a good rapport with Aaron Rodgers, so he is off limits for me at this point.

The Takeaway: This doesn’t feel like the best spot to pay a premium for Aaron Rodgers, but I don’t mind taking another piece from the offense. Aaron Jones remains an elite play if Ty Montgomery is sidelined for a second straight week, while Davante Adams lines up as the best option at receiver with Xavier Rhodes likely to shadow Jordy Nelson. The Bears did not throw a single pass in Rhodes’ direction on Monday night.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: As of now, I am expecting Case Keenum to get the start under center for the Vikings this week, after Sam Bradford tried to play against the Bears and showed the agility of an 80 year-old in the process. Keenum has shown surprisingly well in a few of his outings this year, and he did enough for the Vikings to earn a victory over the Bears on Monday. While he is not usually a fantasy option, he carries some deep GPP appeal if the game happens to turn into a shootout with the Vikings falling behind. The passing game will be forced to do a little more heavy lifting with Dalvin Cook out for the season. Keep expectations in check, but Keenum is a better option than some of the other punt plays out there.

Running Backs: I was curious to see how the snaps would play out in this backfield sans Dalvin Cook, particularly in close games. We got one of those right away, as the Monday tilt between the Vikings and Bears was competitive (though ugly) throughout. Jerick McKinnon logged 47 snaps in the game, while Latavius Murray saw the field on just 22. That’s more than a 2-to-1 advantage for McKinnon, and I would expect a similar distribution moving forward after McKinnon looked far more explosive a week ago. He gives the Vikings a better shot to be competitive against the Packers, and he’s a far superior option in the passing game. He will be wildly popular this week, but the upside is certainly enticing for the reasonable cost at which you can acquire his services for the week. I’m a buyer.

Pass Catchers: It may seem backwards, but I do prefer the Minnesota pass catchers with Keenum at the controls, especially given the current health state of Sam Bradford. The Packers don’t have the cornerbacks to shut down Stefon Diggs, and Diggs peppered them for a massive 9/182/1 line in the home game a year ago. Although he was quiet on Monday against the Bears, I think Diggs finds a rhythm this week. He’s a great tournament play who will likely get over-looked after last week’s dud. Adam Thielen remains a steady mid-range option, while Kyle Rudolph is an interesting cheap target at tight end. He caught a second half touchdown from Keenum last week and remains one of the best red zone tight ends in football.

FRIDAY UPDATE – Bradford is out, and Keenum will start again. However, the bigger news is that Stefon Diggs has yet to practice this week. If he can’t play in this game, I really like Thielen as a safe mid-range play with some upside as well.

The Takeaway: Don’t sleep on the Vikings in this game. They will need to score to keep pace with the potent Green Bay offense, and there are some playmakers on this team. Jerick McKinnon and Stefon Diggs have solid upside in this matchup, while Adam Thielen can be used as a cash game target. Kyle Rudolph is also in play if you are looking for value. This whole analysis hinges on Keenum starting at quarterback, so keep an eye on that news throughout the week. If Bradford is the starter, I’ll give the skill players a bit of a downgrade.

Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints
6 23
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
** ** ** ** ** **
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 24.6 10 23 26 Offense 23.3 12 4 21
Opp. Defense 19.5 12 27 16 Opp. Defense 19.4 10 26 3
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New Orleans Saints 21 26 21 12 Detroit Lions 10 15 18 18
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Tate 40 29 1 267 Thomas 37 25 2 310
Jones 26 14 2 184 Snead
Golladay 15 7 2 102 Ginn 16 11 1 146
Ebron 23 12 1 93 Fleener 15 11 2 129

Notable injuries and suspensions: Matthew Stafford (DET QB) – Questionable but likely to play (Ankle) / Kenny Golladay (DET WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Willie Snead (NO WR) – Questionable but likely to play (Hamstring)

DET Matchup Rating: 7.0
NO Matchup Rating: 8.0

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: This is the most likely shootout of the week, and we have a sturdy Vegas total of 50 points as the Lions and Saints square off in the dome in New Orleans. Expect both Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees to sling it in this one, but we need to be a little cautious with Stafford. Despite limited talent in the secondary and a rash of injuries, the Saints have been surprisingly competent at defending the pass so far in 2017. Some of that is variance, and some of it is because they faced Jay Cutler a couple weeks ago, but this team may not be quite as bad defensively as we all thought. The Saints are also coming off a bye, so they have had plenty of time to prepare for the Lions here. If you are searching for a quarterback in this game, I’d much rather pay for Brees on the other side.

Running Backs: Theo Riddick out-snapped Ameer Abdullah 30 to 22 last week, but part of that was because the Lions fell into a fairly sizable hole against the Panthers. However, Abdullah has yet to play on more than 50% of the snaps in any game this season. He also lost a goal line touchdown to Zach Zenner last week. That’s a bad combination. If the snaps are in question, it’s really a problem if said player isn’t getting the goal line touches. This does profile as a potentially good spot for Riddick as a PPR machine, but there are so many high upside, cheap running backs this week that it’s hard to vault him up the list too far. The matchup for Abdullah is solid against a Saints team that ranks 30th in DVOA against the run, but I just can’t trust the workload. I want to like someone from this group, but I’m having trouble making the pieces come together to really love it.

Pass Catchers: While the Lions wide receivers don’t really have #1 and #2 designations, it may be shocking to see that Golden Tate has more than twice as many catches and 14 more targets than Marvin Jones through just five weeks. Tate is clearly the volume guy and has always been the more reliable PPR target, but that difference has been exacerbated so far this year. I still feel like a random big Marvin Jones week is coming, and this just might be the week for that. He tends to explode with big games out of nowhere, he’s cheap in DFS formats, and this game could be a genuine shootout. It doesn’t have the best statistical backing, but Jones is one of my favorite gut call GPP plays on the week. Eric Ebron has failed to capitalize on his “potential” for about the 17th year in a row now, so don’t bother with him at the moment. Your blood pressure will be better off for it.

The Takeaway: Feel free to get some exposure to what should be one of the highest scoring games of the week. I am a little cautious about the Detroit side because the Saints have had extra preparation time, but the concern is mild at best. Matthew Stafford is in play at quarterback, though I prefer the signal-caller on the other side of this game. The best place to look will be at wide receiver, where Golden Tate is a safe PPR option and Marvin Jones has some interesting upside. If you think the Lions will get pass-happy in this one, Theo Riddick is an intriguing GPP play as well. It’s difficult to trust Ameer Abdullah with his low snap count and inconsistent red zone usage.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: The Detroit defense is better than a lot of people give them credit for, but some of their performance is skewed thanks to early season matchups against the Giants and Vikings. They were exposed quite a bit by Cam Newton last week, and they were playing a bit over their heads at the outset. This is a different type of challenge against Drew Brees in New Orleans, and everyone knows how good Brees has been in his career at home. With the Saints coming off an impressive win in London and a bye week, all the momentum is in their favor. It is very telling that Vegas has them installed as four point favorites with a 28 point team total in this game. I’m definitely on Team Brees this weekend.

Running Backs: Hello, value! With Adrian Peterson off to Arizona, one piece has been removed from this backfield matrix. That leaves Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to share duties and likely split snaps. Kamara seems to be getting more buzz this week, especially in full PPR formats. However, we have seen Ingram have big games before, and I like him as a GPP pivot with the herd flocking to Kamara. All told, both of them are affordable, and one of them is likely going to smash value for that affordable price tag. There isn’t necessarily a wrong answer here, but there is a bit of uncertainty because we don’t know how the snaps will shake out, and Sean Payton is notoriously unpredictable with his running back usage.

Pass Catchers: I am generally a Michael Thomas fan, but that train is making a stop this week. The Lions used Darius Slay to shadow Michael Thomas in last year’s meeting, and Thomas had a very quiet game with just four grabs for 42 yards. Willie Snead will be making his first appearance of the year after a suspension and an injury, and he will have to deal with the emerging Quandre Diggs in the slot, so he’s a very risky proposition. Coby Fleener hasn’t seen as many snaps as I would like and is always inconsistent. I like Drew Brees this week, but it’s hard to nail down who the best pass catcher will be. Perhaps the running backs carry even more value? That is a rhetorical question. The only remaining receiver is Ted Ginn, and he carries some intrigue as a GPP boom/bust pairing with Brees if you want to take that angle.

The Takeaway: The Saints have one of the highest implied team totals of the week, so feel free to fire up some New Orleans skill players. The running backs are great values with Adrian Peterson no longer in the mix, and Drew Brees is always a solid option at home. I can’t trust Michael Thomas or Willie Snead in their individual matchups, but Ted Ginn is an interesting tournament play. You can also play Brees without pairing him with a pass catcher, as this could be a typical game where he spreads the ball around to a lot of different receivers.

New England Patriots New York Jets
11 12
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
-9.5 47.5 28.5 9.5 47.5 19
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 29.6 3 1 18 Offense 18.4 23 25 13
Opp. Defense 21.2 14 9 28 Opp. Defense 28.4 29 30 22
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New York Jets 18 28 14 9 New England Patriots 30 30 26 27
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Cooks 32 18 2 379 Anderson 29 14 1 220
Hogan 37 23 5 288 Kearse 28 22 3 220
Amendola 27 23 1 267 Kerley 17 17 0 132
Gronkowski 30 20 2 318 Seferian-Jenkins 18 15 1 106

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rex Burkhead (NE RB) – Questionable (Ribs) / Bilal Powell (NYJ RB) – Questionable (Calf)

NE Matchup Rating: 8.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.0

New England Patriots

Quarterback: The defense has been porous enough for the Patriots this year that it has kept Tom Brady throwing, throwing, and throwing some more. Brady is showing what he can do when he is needed, as he leads the league in passing yards by more than 100. The defense did show up last week against Tampa Bay, though, and they are showing some signs of improvement. The Patriots are very large road favorites in this game, as Vegas clearly is not buying into the Jets’ three game win streak. This might finally be a game where the Patriots can run the ball a little more often, though you never know what Bill Belichick will use for a game plan. As is the case with Aaron Rodgers, I just don’t love paying up for Brady this week. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack against the pass and are worse against the run, so I would expect more of a run-oriented game plan in this one.

Running Backs: As I mentioned above, I do expect the Patriots to look to establish the run more often in this game. Although the snap counts have been all over the place, Mike Gillislee does have more than three times as many carries as any other New England player. There is going to be a week where he gets 20 touches, 100+ yards, and scores a couple of touchdowns. If there were a logical spot for that to happen, this would be it. I expect Gillislee to score a touchdown early and then be used as a late game hammer to bleed the clock. There is a little too much risk for cash games because of the uncertain workload, but I like the tournament appeal here. If you buy the run-oriented approach, James White carries less appeal in this one.

Pass Catchers: Chris Hogan continues to play over his head, but perhaps that is just me underrating his value with Tom Brady chucking him footballs every week. Keep my potential bias in mind. If you think Hogan can keep up this touchdown per game pace, by all means continue to fire him up in DFS. I still think Brandin Cooks ends up with the better numbers by the end of the year, and as such he is my preferred DFS play of the two. Rob Gronkowski is always a top tight end play, but it is worth noting that the Jets currently rank 2nd in DVOA against the position so far this year. On a points per dollar basis, I would rank them Cooks > Gronkowski > Hogan this week, but it’s not clear-cut by any stretch.

The Takeaway: in tournament formats, I absolutely love Mike Gillislee with the way this game sets up from a flow perspective. Tom Brady and the passing game should be able to post fine numbers, but a ton of volume likely won’t be needed with the Patriots checking in as large favorites. Brandin Cooks is my favorite receiving target, and I have some concerns about Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski. Hogan can’t keep up this touchdown pace, and the Jets have done well against tight ends so far.

New York Jets

Quarterback: I am not purposely attempting to poke holes in the three game winning streak that the Jets have going, but it’s simply very easy to accomplish that task. Their wins have come over the Dolphins (a team that is not nearly as good people thought heading into the season), the Jaguars (in overtime a week after the Jags had to play in London), and the Browns (who remain winless). As I wrote above, Vegas clearly isn’t buying them, as it is very rare to see a team be a double digit underdog at home. Josh McCown still hasn’t cleared 250 passing yards in a game and has just five touchdowns in five contests, so everything needs to go right just for him to put up serviceable numbers. I know the Patriots have been an awful pass defense, but it’s very difficult to trust McCown with the Jets carrying such a low team total.

Running Backs: This spot hinges on the status of Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. The current buzz seems to indicate that Elijah McGuire is going to play a major role in this game, and he would carry plenty of value appeal should both Forte and Powell be sidelined. If only one of them is out, McGuire will be a much riskier option. It’s difficult to break down at this point. We will need to check for updates as we get closer to the weekend.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Forte is going to play. Powell is listed as questionable but seems closer to doubtful. I still don’t mind McGuire as a GPP play, but he’s a little too risky for cash games with Forte active.

Pass Catchers: Upside is a problem with this group, especially with McCown at quarterback. Jermaine Kearse has been the most consistent option and has the best overall numbers, but he has now been held below 50 receiving yards in three straight games. The targets should be there with the Jets likely playing from behind in this game, and the price tag is reasonable at $6,100 on FanDuel, $4,800 on DraftKings, and $9,500 on FantasyDraft. I can’t get behind Robby Anderson or Austin Seferian-Jenkins in this spot.

The Takeaway: Don’t get too excited here, as the Jets have a sub-20 point implied team total. Even though the Patriots have been bad defensively this year, they looked better last week and might actually be in play as a D/ST option. If both Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are sidelined, we can get a nice value play in Elijah McGuire. Outside of that, Jermaine Kearse is the only player with a lot of fantasy relevance.

San Francisco 49ers Washington Redskins
31 20
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
9.5 46.5 18.5 -9.5 46.5 28
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense Offense 22.8 13 14 7
Opp. Defense 22.3 17 16 8 Opp. Defense
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Washington Redskins 16 12 2 28 San Francisco Niners 0 0 0 0
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Garcon 44 28 0 379 Pryor 24 13 1 186
Goodwin 30 14 0 243 Crowder 19 14 0 106
Robinson 19 7 0 87 Doctson 6 3 1 79
Kittle 23 17 1 166 Reed 19 14 0 105

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rob Kelley (WAS RB) – Questionable (Ankle) / Josh Norman (WAS CB) – Out (Ribs)

SF Matchup Rating: 3.5
WAS Matchup Rating: 7.5

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: Brian Hoyer put up a solid performance as a value quarterback in DFS a week ago, but the sledding will be much more difficult this week in Washington. The Redskins have displayed a very solid defensive unit this year, and they have allowed just five touchdown passes to date. They rank 7th in DVOA against the pass and made Derek Carr look terrible a few weeks back. The volume should be there for Hoyer, as the 49ers are double digit road underdogs in this game, but it’s tough for me to pick on a Washington secondary that is still solid even without Josh Norman.

Running Backs: Here we go with the revolving door of a depth chart. The 49ers coaching staff is casting doubt on the volume for Carlos Hyde going forward by saying they will ride the hot hand in the backfield. Matt Breida might be in line for more work going forward, and the snaps were split almost evenly a week ago. There’s no point in trying to extract a viable play in this spot with San Francisco being such large underdogs in the game. Move along.

Pass Catchers: I already mentioned the success that Washington is experiencing with their secondary, and here are Washington’s DVOA ranks against respective receiver positions:

vs. #1 WR = 5th
vs. #2 WR = 2nd
vs. Other WR = 4th
vs. TE = 31st

Hello, George Kittle week, Part Deux! The Kittle man helped win RotoGrinders CEO Cal Spears a million dollars last week, and a larger herd will likely head that way this week. His price tag has risen a little bit, but I can still endorse playing him given the matchup. It does feel a bit like chasing points, but it makes sense against Washington. I don’t want to mess with the outside receivers against this secondary, though the corners are less scary with Josh Norman out for a few weeks. It’s still tough for me to endorse Pierre Garcon over a guy like Adam Thielen or Tyreek Hill.

The Takeaway: This isn’t a great matchup against an emerging Washington defense, and I actually like the Redskins as a defense play that might get overlooked to some degree. The running game for San Francisco is off limits with the newly minted time split between Breida and Hyde, and it’s tough to trust the passing game against such a good secondary. The only play I am really interested in is George Kittle, who will certainly be more popular this week after a huge Week 5 performance.

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: At this time of year, I do like targeting teams that are coming off bye weeks, so the Redskins fit that mold. They have played respectably well in prime time in their last two games, dominating the Raiders at home before falling to the Chiefs in a competitive game. Kirk Cousins is an intriguing option this week against a 49ers squad that does not possess a solid pass defense, but the issue I have is that Cousins seems a bit over-priced on almost every site. It’s hard to make a case for him over the likes of Matt Ryan, for instance, and Ryan is only a little bit more expensive than Cousins everywhere. The matchup is fine, but I just can’t pay that tag. On the flip side, that will serve to keep Cousins’ ownership in check in GPPs, if that angle interests you.

Running Backs: After championing the “fade Chris Thompson” bandwagon for a few weeks, it finally paid off against the Chiefs two weeks ago. The Redskins have reiterated that they will not dramatically increase Thompson’s touches, as he is not built like a feature back. The per-touch production from the first three weeks was simply unsustainable in the long term. However, this is a golden matchup against a 49ers team that really struggles against pass catching running backs. I might have a little Thompson exposure this week, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Rob Kelley is likely going to be out again. I haven’t seen enough upside from Samaje Perine to put him on the fantasy radar as of yet.

Pass Catchers: The 49ers pass defense is basically the inverse of the Redskins pass defense, which is kind of strange/cool/exciting/perhaps I’m just getting tired. San Francisco has the best DVOA in the league against tight ends, but they struggle against wide receivers. Herein lies the problem: what wide receiver do you want to trust in this spot? Terrelle Pryor? Jamison Crowder? Josh Doctson? Ryan Grant? The situation is very cloudy. Pryor was supposed to be the clear cut #1 guy, but he has been relatively disappointing. None of these guys can be used in cash games right now despite the favorable matchup, but a GPP flier could certainly pay off.

The Takeaway: I like the spot, but it’s tough to peg where the production will come from in this offense. You could likely get quite a bit of it simply by taking Kirk Cousins, but he doesn’t come cheap these days. This is a good matchup for Chris Thompson, and I will likely have some exposure to him even though I’m not a huge fan of the limited volume. A wide receiver or two will likely make value, but your guess is as good as mine as to who will step up in that capacity. The tight end spot is off limits for me, as the 49ers have done well at shutting that position down so far this season.


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About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on X – @stlcardinals84