NFL Grind Down: Week 6
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 46 | 21.5 | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | Offense | 21.0 | 18 | 15 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.8 | 9 | 5 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 19.8 | 13 | 28 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 13 | 13 | 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 19 | 5 | 29 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 38 | 20 | 2 | 246 | Benjamin | 25 | 17 | 1 | 272 | |
| Smith | 23 | 13 | 1 | 204 | Funchess | 36 | 24 | 3 | 269 | |
| Agholor | 23 | 16 | 3 | 266 | Shepard | 8 | 6 | 1 | 87 | |
| Ertz | 48 | 32 | 2 | 387 | Dickson | 14 | 11 | 0 | 271 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 7.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: What’s up, NFL DFS junkies? We start Week 6 off with what should be a fun game between the Eagles and Panthers. Despite some difficult matchups in the early part of the season, Carson Wentz has been nothing short of spectacular to start his second season in the NFL. He ranks inside the top ten quarterbacks in the league in yards, touchdowns, and passer rating so far this season. This isn’t a great matchup against a solid Carolina defense, and when you combine that with the fact that Thursday players tend to be over-owned, I think Wentz is a calculated fade in this spot. The Eagles have a surprisingly low team total, and I’ll gladly pivot to other options at this salary level this week.
Running Backs: Last week’s game set up as the perfect scenario for LeGarrette Blount. Wendell Smallwood was out, and the Eagles raced out to a three score lead in the first quarter. However, Blount ended up with just 14 of the team’s 33 rushing attempts in the game, and he played on less than 40% of the offensive snaps. This is a pass-first team, and they are likely not going to race out to a lead in this game. It’s tough to trust anyone in this group, even with both Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood out of commission. I don’t expect Smallwood to return on a short week to play on Thursday. There are better options out there.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery has had perhaps the most ridiculous schedule for a #1 wide receiver through the first five weeks of the season. Seriously, he has had to face Casey Hayward, Josh Norman, Janoris Jenkins, Marcus Peters, and Patrick Peterson in five games. It doesn’t get a lot easier this week against Carolina, but at least the Panthers don’t have an elite “shut down” shadow corner. Jeffery is getting cheaper and cheaper by the week in DFS, and there will be a time where he absolutely smashes value. I love this spot for tournaments, especially since the Eagles don’t have other reliable options at wide receiver. Zach Ertz is a consistent option at tight end, but he’s expensive now and the Panthers have done well against the position so far. I prefer to spend elsewhere this week.
The Takeaway: This isn’t a great spot for the Eagles, as they are on the road with a short week against a solid defense. Wentz and Ertz aren’t the best point per dollar options in my book this week, though the floors are nice and safe. I am off the running game completely for now. Alshon Jeffery is the most interesting GPP option of the bunch, and I don’t mind taking a shot with the Carolina defense in this spot.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton hasn’t really been making positive waves with the media lately, but he sure has been playing well on the football field. He has completed 77% of his passes over the last two games with seven total touchdowns (six via the air). He has thrown for 315+ yards in both of those contests, and both came on the road. Those didn’t exactly come against great pass defenses, but the Eagles don’t necessarily boast an elite secondary, either. They rank in the middle of the road in most defensive metrics. I can’t see paying a premium for Newton chasing the production of the last few weeks, but it’s hard to argue against him at this point. I will likely play a cautious fade here.
Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey is basically a glorified wide receiver at this point. He logged just three carries last week and has 96 rushing yards on 34 attempts so far on the year. That’s hard to get excited about, though there is always some PPR appeal here. Jonathan Stewart is a touchdown dependent option that doesn’t have a whole lot of DFS upside. There’s not much to love in this group right now with Newton shouldering the offensive load.
Pass Catchers: Although the Eagles have respectable pass defense numbers this year, their secondary still doesn’t do a whole lot to strike fear into opposing wide receivers. Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess will both benefit from the improved play of Cam Newton, and they both caught touchdown passes last week. I can see the viability in both of them as mid-range WR targets in Week 6. I am not buying into the recent success and 175 yard game from Ed Dickson, so don’t be fooled by last week’s line.
The Takeaway: Even though I like this game from a “watchability” standpoint, I don’t love it for DFS. Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess are my favorite options for the Panthers, and Cam Newton is fine if you want to buy into his recent surge. He still hasn’t produced much with his legs, and the DFS price tag feels a little inflated this week. On a short week, I expect both offenses to struggle just a little bit, too.
| Miami Dolphins | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | 47 | 17.75 | -11.5 | 47 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 10.3 | 32 | 30 | 31 | Offense | 26.0 | 8 | 7 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 17 | 23 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 16.8 | 4 | 19 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 11 | 27 | 8 | 14 | Miami Dolphins | 9 | 7 | 10 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Parker | 28 | 19 | 1 | 236 | Jones | 30 | 19 | 0 | 295 | |
| Landry | 43 | 30 | 1 | 210 | Gabriel | 18 | 10 | 1 | 129 | |
| Stills | 20 | 10 | 1 | 114 | Hardy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 31 | |
| Thomas | 16 | 9 | 0 | 86 | Hooper | 13 | 10 | 1 | 194 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Doubtful (Ankle) / Mohamed Sanu (ATL WR) – Out (Hamstring)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.5
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.5
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: I will refrain from the easily accessible jokes around the Miami offense and coaching staff right now, other than to say that they have now been awful as a unit for three weeks now — and those came in matchups against the Jets, Saints, and Titans. They won last week, but their biggest play was a touchdown that was scored… by the defense. Jay Cutler completed 46% of his passes and threw for 92 yards in the win. The fans are clamoring for him to be benched. There’s nothing exciting for DFS purposes here.
Running Backs: Jay Ajayi has a ton of talent, but he’s playing with a below average quarterback and running behind an abysmal offensive line. He’s still getting plenty of snaps, though that could be a bit of an issue this week if the Dolphins fall way behind. The only thing appealing about Ajayi is that his price tag is now super cheap, but he’s nothing more than a massive risk/reward GPP play given the overall state of the offense and the fact that the Dolphins are large underdogs in this contest.
Pass Catchers: Keep an eye on the status of DeVante Parker. He left last week’s game early with an ankle injury, crushing a lot of lineups in the process. If he is out this week, Jarvis Landry will likely get peppered with targets in a game where the Dolphins are trailing. Landry would be a safe volume-based option for cash games should that circumstance come to fruition, especially since the Dolphins will likely be trailing in this game. I can’t trust Kenny Stills with Cutler at quarterback.
The Takeaway: Assuming DeVante Parker is out, the case can be made for using Jarvis Landry, especially in cash games. He would likely see a ton of targets in a game where Miami is likely to be trailing. Jay Ajayi has a lot of talent, but he’s been terrible behind a bad offensive line and is strictly a GPP play at this juncture.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Parker is doubtful for this game, so upgrade Landry as a fine play in Week 6.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The Falcons are my favorite offense to target this week. They are playing a bad team at home and are coming off a bye, and they have an implied team total approaching 30. That is the highest you will find on the board, and Matt Ryan is perhaps the safest quarterback play of Week 6. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal and a great matchup in a dome. What more can we ask for? Fire him up with confidence in all formats.
Running Backs: Game flow should favor some additional rushing attempts this week, and the Falcons are good at keeping with their normal snap counts of around 65% for Devonta Freeman and 35% for Tevin Coleman. This feels like a week where Freeman could get loose and do some damage, especially coming out of the bye week, whereas the Dolphins had a London trip and a team fiasco over the last two weeks. It’s impossible to overstate how good this spot is for Atlanta.
Pass Catchers: This game is the perfect recipe for Julio Jones to explode. Injuries have been a problem. Consistency has been a problem. His numbers through the first four games are very un-Julio like. That is going to change at some point, and this game should be the one. The Dolphins rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 29th in DVOA against #1 wide receivers. They have nobody capable of containing Jones, and a big play seems more likely than not in this spot. I’ll call my shot with a 200+ yard day from Jones, and I think he finds the end zone for the first time all year. The fringe guys are certainly in the conversation if you are looking to save some money, especially if Mohamed Sanu is out. That would increase the potential for guys like Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper.
The Takeaway: I am the conductor of the Julio Jones train this week and will be overweight on him in all formats. The entire offense is in play here, from Jones to Ryan to Freeman to Gabriel to Hooper, though the last two are really only interesting if Mohamed Sanu can’t play. In short, the Falcons are going to score some points in this spot.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Sanu is out. Upgrade Gabriel and Hooper quite a bit.
| Chicago Bears | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 40 | 16.75 | -6.5 | 40 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.6 | 30 | 27 | 12 | Offense | 18.0 | 24 | 31 | 6 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 24 | 10 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 21 | 6 | 22 | Chicago Bears | 13 | 17 | 15 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wright | 23 | 18 | 1 | 200 | Maclin | 28 | 16 | 2 | 159 | |
| Thompson | 18 | 11 | 1 | 125 | Wallace | 22 | 12 | 1 | 209 | |
| Wheaton | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Perriman | 16 | 4 | 0 | 26 | |
| Miller | 27 | 16 | 1 | 182 | Watson | 22 | 18 | 1 | 148 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Markus Wheaton (CHI WR) – Out (Groin) / Terrance West (BAL RB) – Out (Calf)
CHI Matchup Rating: 2.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.0
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky might be the future of the Chicago Bears, but it’s pretty clear that he remains a step behind in his development compared to guys like Deshaun Watson. His touchdown pass on Monday night could have very easily been an interception, and now he draws a very difficult road matchup on a short week against a good pass defense. In short, there’s no reason to go here.
Running Backs: While the overall snap count and his lack of involvement in the passing game is a major drag, it would be a disservice to completely dismiss Jordan Howard as an NFL back. He runs hard and is capable of big numbers on the ground, and he had a 40 yard touchdown called back last week because of a questionable holding penalty on Markus Wheaton. The Ravens have slipped a bit in rush defense this year, but the game script is a real concern. With the Bears sitting as seven point underdogs, we might see a lot of Benny Cunningham and Tarik Cohen in the second half. Cunningham’s emergence in the passing game has sapped any of Cohen’s value at this point. It’s probably best to avoid this group.
Pass Catchers: The Bears have the worst wide receivers in football, a rookie quarterback at the helm, and they are facing a Ravens team that ranks 2nd in DVOA against the pass. This is an easy fade. However, the Ravens have really struggled against tight ends, so this could be a sneaky spot to get Zach Miller on the cheap. There aren’t a lot of great tight end matchups out there this week, so I don’t mind saving some salary and punting the position.
The Takeaway: Baltimore’s defense will likely be the most popular unit of the week, and there is good logic behind that. The Bears have the lowest implied team total of the week at just over 16 points. Zach Miller is a reasonable cheap target at tight end, but I’m not really that interested in anyone else from this team.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Through five games this season, Joe Flacco has four touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 165 passing yards per game. If that is what you are looking for in your DFS contests, you must be a huge Baltimore supporter. Even as a Ravens fan myself, I can’t make a case for Flacco in any format.
Running Backs: This is a fluid spot on a weekly basis, but this is trending toward being a backfield belonging to Javorius Allen. He was previously thought of as merely the “passing down” guy, but it was eye-opening to see him play on 71% of the snaps last week despite the fact that Baltimore held a solid lead for pretty much the entire game. Alex Collins has been in the doghouse thanks to his fumbling problems, and that has opened up the opportunity for Allen to take control. He will largely get ignored on a week that features a lot of good value running backs, but Allen is at least on the GPP radar here.
Pass Catchers: Mike Wallace finally made a big play last week, while Jeremy Maclin also saw the most targets he has seen as a member of the Ravens. It’s still hard to get behind either guy as a safe DFS option with a scuffling Flacco at quarterback. You can make a case in tournaments, but I won’t be looking to anyone from this group in Week 6.
The Takeaway: This game is one of the least exciting games of the week from a fantasy perspective, as the Vegas total of just under 40 points would indicate. Don’t get too excited about any offensive weapons in this contest. Javorius Allen is a reasonable target at running back, especially in tournaments, as his ownership will be very low compared to the likes of the Saints’ running backs and Jerick McKinnon. Outside of Allen, I can give the rest of this inconsistent offense a hard pass.
| Cleveland Browns | Houston Texans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 46.5 | 18.25 | -10 | 46.5 | 28.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.4 | 31 | 16 | 25 | Offense | 28.8 | 4 | 21 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.0 | 27 | 14 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 24 | 17 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 23 | 6 | 16 | 21 | Cleveland Browns | 27 | 9 | 9 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Britt | 23 | 8 | 1 | 121 | Hopkins | 61 | 35 | 5 | 363 | |
| Louis | 28 | 15 | 0 | 204 | Fuller | 9 | 6 | 4 | 92 | |
| Higgins | 25 | 11 | 0 | 112 | Ellington | 16 | 9 | 1 | 133 | |
| DeValve | 22 | 12 | 0 | 158 | Griffin | 16 | 9 | 1 | 96 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kenny Britt (CLE WR) – Questionable (Knee)
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 7.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Well, at least we will get the awful offensive teams out of the way here early in the article. The Browns also have one of the lowest implied team totals of the week, and they are double digit underdogs on the road despite facing a defense that just lost its best player for the season due to injury. As of the time I am writing this, Cleveland has not made a decision on who will start at quarterback between DeShone Kizer and Kevin Hogan. Regardless of who draws the start, neither player is a fantasy option at this point.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Kevin Hogan will start. I suppose you can consider him at a sub-$5,000 price tag on DraftKings because the cap is so tight over there, but he’s off the FanDuel radar given their salary structure.
Running Backs: Well, if Crowell couldn’t get the job done against the Jets a week ago, it was probably safe to write him off for the year. He responded with a 16 carry, 60 yard, good but not great, performance. The game flow is likely going to be a nightmare for him this week with Cleveland being such large underdogs, and that means we will likely see a lot more of Duke Johnson in the second half. It’s hard to endorse these guys over some of the other options on the board at similar price points.
Pass Catchers: Although the Houston pass rush won’t be the same without J.J. Watt, they still boast a respectable secondary that should not be picked on with reckless abandon. Cleveland’s wide receiving group rivals the Bears and Jets as one of the worst in the NFL. Pass on this whole unit.
The Takeaway: Cleveland does not have anyone that I am really interested in this week. You can fade the whole team and not feel like you are missing out on anything. I don’t love Houston’s defense without J.J. Watt, but this is a spot where they could get a defensive touchdown at some point.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: What a whirlwind start it has been for Deshaun Watson at quarterback for the Texans. He has been nothing short of fantastic in each of his last three games, though it should be noted that game flow played a huge part in his performance last week. The Texans were down by two scores for the entire second half, putting them into pass-happy mode for the entire half. Also, the Chiefs ran a punt back for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, which extended that lead and gave the ball right back to Watson. I am not trying to poke holes in his start, but I do think that he cannot be expected to keep up this kind of pace. This profiles as the perfect matchup for Houston to dial him back a bit, in a game where they should be comfortably ahead. Watson is going to be very popular this week, and this is the perfect time to hop off the train. I’ll look elsewhere because of ownership and the likelihood that Houston builds a comfortable lead.
Running Backs: Lamar Miller seems to be solidifying his hold on the top running back spot in Houston, and it was a bit of a surprise to see him play on almost 90% of the snaps last week with Houston in come from behind mode for much of the game. D’Onta Foreman has a bright future, but Miller has been solid of late and remains the preferred target in this backfield. Miller is a safe, solid option against the Browns, though it has to be noted that this isn’t as good of a matchup as it might appear on the surface. The Browns quietly rank 3rd in DVOA against the run this season. I don’t mind Miller in cash games, but I will search elsewhere for GPP upside.
Pass Catchers: Cleveland has had their struggles in pass defense this season, and they have the second worst pass defense DVOA in the NFL right now. While game flow does concern me in terms of volume here and I stated my reasons for fading Deshaun Watson above, that doesn’t mean that this passing game is off limits. Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins are clearly going to see a huge percentage of targets going forward, and they combined for all five of Houston’s touchdown catches last week against the Chiefs. Nobody in this Cleveland secondary can cover them, and Hopkins is second to only Antonio Brown among the league target leaders. Hopkins is in play for all formats, while Fuller is more of a GPP option.
The Takeaway: Houston should win this game comfortably, and that has not been the case for them lately. That game script makes Deshaun Watson a little more risky, and I will search for other options with Watson likely trending toward being highly owned in GPP contests. Lamar Miller is in play as a positive game script based RB option, though the Browns are much more stout against the run than the pass. My preferred plays will be the wideouts, with DeAndre Hopkins being a rock solid play and Will Fuller bringing upside to the table. In total, though, I will likely have lower exposure to this offense than the rest of the DFS population.