NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 13
Welcome to the Week 13 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted 250+ lineups into the big GPP (“pros”) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With over $5,000 at stake, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak of a single player’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Cam Newton $7400, 40.14 points (19.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 11.6 percent, Peak ownership: 45.0 percent
Prior to this week, Cam Newton had only had one game over 300 yards passing. This can be attributed to the low volume passing game (averaging 31.1 pass attempts per game; #27) and stout run game that Carolina has. As the Saints had been atrocious through the air as well as through the ground, we knew Cam would have a solid game and so did the public. While the high-floor Cam had shown this season so far and excellent matchup made him a solid pick for cash games, his ceiling had a good chance of being capped. This came from the blowout potential since Carolina’s top tier defense could limit Brees (even at home) which would transition the Panthers over to their run game. With New Orleans poor run defense (seventh-most fantasy points given up to RB), the Panthers would still continue being able to score while controlling the clock. As Cam has accrued over 25% less points per game on the road coupled with his projected sky-high ownership, the pro’s had him as a fade as compared to the field.
2. Marcus Mariota $5500, 40.92 points (3.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 1.2 percent, Peak ownership: 7.2 percent
While the Jaguars had given up an above average number of points to opposing QBs and had the #30 pass defense per DVOA, Mariota’s low ownership was for good reason. His #1 wide receiver in Kendall Wright had been recovering from a sprained MCL and played only limited snaps the prior week, requiring Mariota to continue relying heavily on Delanie Walker. The Titans had been averaging a below number of pass attempts per game and outside of the shootout with the Saints, Mariota had been capped around 25 Draftkings points mostly due to his low yardage totals (Week 1: 209 passing yards & four TD, zero INT for 24.96 points). With a handful of other established quarterbacks in juicy matchups around the league in Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Ryan Tannehill, the rookie took a backseat in ownership.
Running Back
1. Devonta Freeman $8000, 20.3 points (6.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 13.2 percent, Peak ownership: 35.5 percent
Since breaking out in Week 3 for 193 yards from scrimmage, five receptions, and three touchdowns, Devonta Freeman has been known for a sky-high ceiling, high floor, and as one of the keystones of the Falcons on the ground as well as through the air. With Leonard Hankerson out for the season with an injured hamstring, Devonta & Tamme were looking to have a high workload. While the Buccaneers only allowed 3.5 yards per rush and were ranked #2 in rush defense DVOA, the Falcons projected point total was approximately equal to their season average. Due to the matchup, the projected public ownership would be low and the pros pounced on a chance to relive a 40+ burger.
2. David Johnson $3400, 20.0 points (35.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 47.6 percent, Peak ownership: 100.0 percent
Imagine this scenario: The team that averages the most points per game in the NFL is a 5.5-point favorite against a team that gives up the fifth-least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, second least to wide receivers, but the fourth most to opposing running backs. That’s the spot David Johnson walked into when CJ2K and Andre Ellington were declared out with injuries early in the week. Not only would he inherit the workhorse role, but he was priced only $400 above the minimum running back salary of $3000. The only reasons to not have 100% exposure (although some did) were questions about Bruce Arians being truthful about his workload or diversifying in case of a freak injury. Needing only roughly ten points to reach a 3x ratio, David Johnson was a lock to reach a safe floor and had the opportunity for much more.
Wide Receiver
1. Alshon Jeffery $6900, 12.5 points (35.2% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 25.2 percent, Peak ownership: 49.7 percent
With Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson out, Alshon was looking to touch the 15-16 targets he had seen twice in the six games he had played. While normally a good source of value and valid strategy, there was the same situation happening over several other teams (Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, A.J. Green, Danny Amendola / Brandon LaFell). Even in a good matchup against the struggling 49ers (#31 pass DVOA, ninth-most points to WR), the potential for a blowout, re-emergence of Matt Forte, and variety of other options tempered the ownership from the pros.
2. Larry Fitzgerald $7400, 13.5 points (3.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 11.7 percent, Peak ownership: 51.4 percent
While Fitzgerald hasn’t been producing fantasy-wise like he was earlier in the season, over the previous four games, the targets (13/game) and catches (9.25/game) had been at season highs with yardage (92.5/game) around his average. With both Michael Floyd and John Brown still limited by hamstring injuries coming into this game, Fitzgerald was slated to see a high workload in the slot against the Rams who are blitz-heavy and ranked in the top-1/4th of teams in sacks. With a projected lower than normal public ownership stake due to the matchup, Fitz was slated to see a high floor with plenty of upside. Since most of his upside had come from touchdowns instead of insane yardage totals a la Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, or Mike Evans, he was also a good hedge on non-David Johnson teams.
Tight End
1. Travis Kelce $4700, 7.2 points (10.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 15.2 percent, Peak ownership: 28.5 percent
Kelce had averaged 7.5 targets over the last four games and was coming into a matchup against the Oakland Raiders who had been labeled as a “must-start-against” earlier in the season for perpetually taking beatings against even mediocre tight ends (second most points against). However, Kelce had only two touchdowns since his Week 1 breakout game in Houston (106 yards, two TD for 31.6 points). With other tight ends in great matchups (Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker) or carving out bigger roles due to injuries (Scott Chandler, Jacob Tamme), Kelce was a contrarian play in a great matchup of his own.
2. Scott Chandler $2500, 16.1 points (26.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 34.7 percent, Peak ownership: 66.8 percent
Stepping into the shadow of Gronk that wasn’t expected to be filled, Scott Chandler was still an easy pick to see an average number of targets and a lock for a 10-point performance (4x ratio). The Patriots were projected by Vegas to nearly match their season point average (-2 points less) without several key weapons and Chandler’s 6’7” frame ensured he would see plenty of red zone targets against an Eagles team that allowed the ninth-least fantasy points to opposing running backs (just two rushing touchdowns allowed on the year to RBs). The requirement of being a barn burner for the top heavy GPP may have overcome the general public enough to keep the ownership low, but the pros jumped on as he opened up salary for high-dollar receivers in good positions (Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr).
Defense & Special Teams
1. Buffalo Bills $2600, 4.0 points (2.5% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 7.4 percent, Peak ownership: 33.8 percent
The Bills had feasted on mistake-prone quarterback play all season (Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck) while getting trounced by those capable (Tom Brady twice, Andy Dalton, 2015 Eli Manning, Alex Smith), leading to an average fantasy point total. Houston was projected to score 1.9 points less than their season average (already 23rd lowest) and were ranked #4 pass defense DVOA against #1 WR (DeAndre Hopkins). The Bills would force Alfred Blue, Nate Washington, and Cecil Shorts III to beat them, which was a good contrarian bet to make.
2. Tennessee Titans $2600, 6.0 points (1.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 8.9 percent, Peak ownership: 59.8 percent
Blake Bortles has had a breakout year, but the inexperience has still been leading to costly errors (five fumbles recovered for touchdowns; sixth most points allowed to DST). The Titans came into this game with the 5th most sacks in the league (20 over the last five games) and were looking to increase that number against the Jaguars who gave up the fifth-most sacks in the league. Only two weeks prior, the Titans had held Bortles to 242 passing yards, one TD, and one INT in his house. The projected sack numbers and moderate point total would provide the Titans with a solid fantasy point floor while allowing for the opportunity of a DFR for a touchdown.