NFL Preseason Picks: Friday, August 28th
Tonight is the beginning of Week 3 of the NFL Preseason. Tonight’s games are effectively the “dress rehearsal” for Week 1 starters. Unless noted, you can expect starters to play the entire first half and then possibly one series of the third quarter. With that in mind, we are targeting mostly starters tonight with possibly a backup or two mixed in. The score to cash in a GPP tonight should be somewhere around 70 and the winning score will be around 130. This is in line with getting about one-half of the production you would expect from a regular season starter. Below are some plays I have identified based on “What to Watch for” articles and various tweets from beat writers. This article is a bit shorter than normal because anyone who starts is in play. I can’t possibly list every single option for tonight. Mostly, I focused on keeping you up to date on who not to play. For example, Calvin Johnson will not play tonight. Around 10% of your opponents tonight will start him anyways. Without further ado, let’s get into the picks.
New England at Carolina
New England
QB: Tom Brady – Tonight is the final tune-up for New England’s starters including Tom Brady. As of this writing, Brady’s playing time is still unknown, but I would guess he gets the bulk of the first half. The problem here is that Brady will face this test without Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and likely Rob Gronkowski. That leaves Brady throwing to the likes of Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and newly acquired Reggie Wayne. After Brady is finished, we will see Jimmy Garoppolo as he readies himself for possibly starting Week 1. Both Brady and Garoppolo get my “play at your own risk” label tonight.
RB: James White and Dion Lewis – One key battle to watch is the Patriots’ third-down-RB role. Brandon Bolden is in the competition but has yet to play in a preseason game. He is in a fierce competition with James White and Dion Lewis for the third-down back role. Travaris Cadet is also in the mix, but he’s a long-shot. James White and Dion Lewis seem to be the guys to watch tonight. I wouldn’t blame you for avoiding this situation though and picking one of the RBs below.
WR: Chris Harper, Aaron Dobson, Danny Amendola – The Patriots are mighty thin at WR right now. Brandon Gibson tore his ACL last week, Brian Tyms was cut, Brandon Lafell is on the PUP list and Josh Boyce is unlikely to play for an unknown reason. That leaves Aaron Dobson as the likely #3 WR while Reggie Wayne and Chris Harper battle it out for #4. I don’t mind Amendola, especially on PPR sites, and Harper and Dobson are both fine options for a Brady handcuff.
TE: Sorry, Rob Gronkowski is not one of the Patriots’ starters playing extended reps tonight. There is no need to look at any Patriots TE when Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen are on this slate. Let’s move on.
Carolina
QB: Cam Newton – Ron Rivera plans to play his starters 35-40 plays which he hopes stretches into the second half. That puts Cam Newton firmly in play. The only drawback to using Newton is that his offensive weapons are a bit thin after the loss of Kelvin Benjamin. Still, what Newton loses in receiving options he gains back with his scrambling ability.
RB: The Panthers go six deep at RB. The likely Week 1 depth chart is Jonathan Stewart, Fozzy Whittaker, Mike Tolbert, Cameron Artis-Payne, Jordan Todman and Brandon Wegher. The Panthers goal is to keep starter Jonathan Stewart healthy. He will play tonight, but it is still unclear how much. I would avoid this situation for the most part as no RB is a candidate to get the majority of the work.
WR: Philly Brown – Rookie Devin Funchess is recovering from a hamstring injury. He returned to practice on Wednesday, and should play tonight. He should be considered, but he’s nothing close to a must-play if a play at all. The WR to target here is Philly Brown who is a candidate to become the Panther’s #1 WR this year. Brown has decent speed and some familiarity working with Newton. Also Consider Ted Ginn, Brenton Bersin
TE Greg Olsen – The one guy you can count on getting targets in this offense is Greg Olsen. If I decide to use Cam tonight, I’m probably more likely to handcuff him with Olsen than a WR. I would say that Olsen and Travis Kelce are basically the only TEs you need to consider tonight.
Detroit at Jacksonville
Detroit
QB: Matthew Stafford – Lions QB Matthew Stafford has played only three series across two preseason games. That will change tonight with the Lions’ starters playing the entire first half. Stafford has looked sharp in his limited time and there is no reason to think that will change tonight.
RB: Ameer Abdullah – In the first half we will likely see a mix of Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah. Both are in play, but I think Abdullah is the stronger play. Abdullah has shown flashes of what he can do in limited action so far this preseason. He has 74 yards on just 9 carries including a 45-yarder. If you want to target some second-half carries, Zach Zenner and George Winn should split those.
WR: Golden Tate – With Calvin Johnson unlikely to play, Golden Tate should step into the #1 WR role tonight. Tate already has one touchdown this preseason in limited action. Tate should play the entire first half and with any luck see 6-10 targets. Deep threat Corey Fuller is also in play here and so is Greg Salas who leads the team with 6 catches for 100 yards this preseason. If you want to target the fringe guys, also take a look at Ryan Broyles.
TE: Eric Ebron – It seems like I recommend Eric Ebron every single time I write an article. With Ebron likely playing a half tonight, it only seems right that I include him again.
Jacksonville:
QB: Blake Bortles: We can expect the Jaguars to play their starters for the entire first half. That means Bortles will see enough reps to be a viable play. He’s not my favorite play here because I’m likely targeting T.J. Yeldon ,but if you are considering a Jaguars QB, Bortles is the one you want.
RB: T.J. Yeldon – After sitting out the first two preseason games with a sprained thumb, T.J. Yeldon practiced without restriction this week. Yeldon is presumed to be the Week 1 starter, but the Jaguars need to actually see what he is capable of in a game. As an added bonus, Yeldon will do his work against a Lions defense that will be missing their entire starting defensive line.
WR: Rashad Greene – Marqise Lee is still out with a hamstring injury. That should open up a few more reps for Rashad Greene who is trying to earn the #3 WR job. So far, he has just two catches for 14 yards this preseason. He should be able to improve on that tonight. Starters Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are also in play.
TE: Clay Harbor – With starting TE Julius Thomas sidelined for the remainder of the preseason, we should see Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor run with the starters. I prefer Harbor here because he sees more targets in the passing game. Lewis is more of a blocking TE.
Tennessee at Kansas City
Tennessee
QB: Marcus Mariota – Be careful with the Titans tonight. They played the Rams just four days ago. Coach Whisenhunt has said the starters may not play the entire first half because of the quick turnaround. That could mean a quick hook for Mariota and other offensive players especially if things go well.
RB: Bishop Sankey – This might be the clearest RB situation on tonight’s slate. Rookie David Cobb injured his calf in practice yesterday and will not play. That should leave the bulk of first half carries to Bishop Sankey and Dexter McCluster. Sankey is a very strong play at RB tonight. With Sankey and McCluster getting first half reps, there should be plenty of garbage time for Antonio Andrews. He’s worth a look tonight as well. If you want some fourth quarter carries, you could even take a flyer on David Fluellen.
WR: Justin Hunter – Keep an eye on Doriel Green-Beckham who injured his ankle in practice this week. He made the trip but his playing time is still up in the air. Starters Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, and Justin Hunter could also see less playing time with only four days off since playing St. Louis. Again, approach this situation with caution.
UPDATE: Jason Cole of Bleacher Report confirmed that Doriel Green-Beckham will not play tonight.
TE: Delanie Walker – After injuring his thumb in practice, Walker has missed both of the Titan’s preseason contests. He will make his debut tonight. QB Marcus Mariota has already completed 14 passes to TEs this preseason. Walker makes a good but not great play tonight.
Kansas City
QB: Alex Smith – According to Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star, The Chiefs starters could play three quarters tonight. That makes our decision on Smith or Chase Daniel very easy. I love Smith tonight and just about every other Chiefs’ starters as well.
RB: Knile Davis – The one starter I’m not a big fan of is Jamaal Charles. I haven’t seen anything definitive on Charles’ playing time tonight but I have a hunch it will be limited. I think we see more Knile Davis than we do Charles in the first half. I could even make a case for Charcandrick West again this week as he should see the bulk of second-half carries.
WR: Jeremy Maclin – With the starters potentially playing three quarters, Jeremy Maclin is the obvious target at WR. Rumor has it Chris Conley will see increased playing time tonight. That increase, by the way, is on top of the team-high in snaps he played last week at WR. He’s worth a look just based on volume even though he hasn’t caught a pass yet this preseason. I also wouldn’t talk anyone out of Frankie Hammond or Fred Williams again, as they have been great so far in preseason and one of them may not make the cut next Tuesday.
TE: Travis Kelce – If someone offers me three quarters of Travis Kelce, I take that every single time. If there is such a thing as a “cash game” play in preseason he is it tonight. He’s easily the top TE on this slate with Greg Olsen right behind him.
That’s it for tonight’s slate. Good luck in your MON-FRI contests as well as the contests that begin tonight. Hopefully the picks above give you a strong foundation to build your team from. Let me know in the comments if I missed anyone. Also, feel free to join me in the Preseason Week 3 Forum Thread. Any breaking news will be posted there first, and then updated here if time allows.