NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 23rd - Page Three

Jump to Page 1 2 3


Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche

Edmonton Oilers Colorado Avalanche
Article Image Laurent Brossoit Article Image Jeremy Smith
Record Record
39-25-9 20-49-3
Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK% Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK%
Team Stats 2.79 2.56 22.40% 80.10% Team Stats 1.91 3.30 12.70% 78.10%

Oilers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.2 CF% / 58.2 GF% / 50 xGF%
Avalanche 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.7 CF% / 36.4 GF% / 45 xGF%

Following a tough game in Anaheim last night, the Oilers will no doubt be looking to the Avalanche as a nice rebound performance. DFS players will no doubt look to Connor McDavid and pals as they look to help the Avs in the Tank Job of ’17. There isn’t much to say about McDavid at this point as he is matchup proof. He posted another three point night in defeat last night; Erik Johnson and the Colorado defense shouldn’t be any match for McJesus tonight. On top of Colorado’s woes among the skaters, Jeremy Smith will be in the blue paint (.890 save percentage in seven games). This could be a game that sees the elusive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins offensive ability make an appearance. He, Milan Lucic, and Jordan Eberle aren’t a bad pivot off McDavid in a favorable matchup. Colorado is a low event team as they look to compensate for their lack of offense, but the Oilers should be able to work over the defense. The Avalanche have a decent CA/60 rate, while their high-danger shots and scoring chances allowed have been increasing over the past 25 games while they play out string. Add in a poor penalty kill (78.1%) and poor goaltending and it should be a nice night for Edmonton.

If the Avalanche want to play spoilers, well, this is a decent set up for them to play the part. They’ll catch the Oilers on the back end of back-to-back and will likely avoid Cam Talbot, who can finally try to catch his breath. Prices are down on the Avalanche top six, so if salary cap relief is needed – especially in tournaments – this group can be used in a pinch. Keep in the mind the floor is below the waterline, of course. Matt Duchene still can’t get anything going but does at least have Gabriel Landeskog on his wing. Nathan MacKinnon is the best volume shooter on the team and is the “safest” plays of the Avs. Edmonton did get worked over by the high-end options of Anaheim last night, though nobody will confuse the Avs even for Carlyle’s Ducks. While it’s a promising set up for Colorado as Edmonton has high CA/60 and HDCA/60 numbers at 5v5, the ceiling remains quite low for the Avs.

Oilers Elite Plays:Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic, Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera
Oilers Secondary Plays: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Mark Letestu

Avalanche Elite Plays:Nathan MacKinnon
Avalanche Secondary Plays:Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie

Winnipeg Jets at Los Angeles Kings

Winnipeg Jets Los Angeles Kings
Article Image Connor Hellebuyck Article Image Jonathan Quick
Record Record
33-33-7 34-31-7
Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK% Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK%
Team Stats 2.99 3.16 17.50% 77.00% Team Stats 2.41 2.47 18.80% 85.00%

Jets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.3 CF% / 51.2 GF% / 50 xGF%
Kings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 55.6 CF% / 46.2 GF% / 52.8 xGF%

The strong Winnipeg top six will look to keep rolling tonight in Los Angeles. Unfortunately, the on-paper (or screen) matchup is unfavorable for the Jets, as it is for many against the Kings. The Jets don’t particularly push play well or generate above average scoring chances or high-danger shot attempts. To be sure, Patrik Laine and Blake Wheeler are very strong players. They will have their hands full against a Kings’ system and defense that doesn’t allow many shots or scoring chances and can dominate puck possession. While LA is going through an ill-timed rough patch, the offense failing to score has mostly been the problem, not so much the defense or goaltending. Jonathan Quick has been consistent in not allowing more than two goals of late, though Ben Bishop has struggled (Quick should start tonight). With the game in LA, the Kings can put Anze Kopitar out in their preferred matchups – he’ll see plenty of the top six. Los Angeles has one of the league’s better penalty kills and they don’t many penalties, so the non-5v5 matchups aren’t great either.

A get-well game is much needed for the Kings even if it is too little, too late for their playoff hopes. The Jets have been trending favorably for opposing offenses, so there is potential for LA skaters. They should under the radar on a loaded slate combined with their recent struggles, but the Kings forwards could come through. The Jets have a middle of the road xGA/60 rate at 5v5 but they do tend to allow a good deal of scoring chances. They are also lead the league in times shorthanded, and with a weak penalty kill, the LA power play gets a green light. Going overboard with LA skaters could be risky due to their inability to score of late, but they make solid GPP plays. Connor Hellebuyck has been inconsistent and has typically played better at home this year (.917 home, .899 away). Jacob Trouba remains out of the lineup, which is a good development for the Kings forwards as he is a strong defender. Keep an eye on line assignments as it looks like the lines have been shuffled up to break the slump. Tanner Pearson remains next to Jeff Carter while Tyler Toffoli was bumped down to the third line; Anze Kopitar remains a poor 5v5 play due to his linemates (Trevor Lewis and the ghost of Dustin Brown) but he does see ample power play time.

Jets Elite Plays:Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien
Jets Secondary Plays: Bryan Little, Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine

Kings Elite Plays:Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty
Kings Secondary Plays: Tyler Toffoli, Jarome Iginla, Anze Kopitar, Alec Martinez

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

benwell311
Ben (benwell311)

Ben has been playing fantasy hockey since the turn of the century, focusing on NHL DFS over the past three seasons. He has previously written hockey content for eDraft and The Fake Hockey. Feel free to reach out with questions, comments, and memes on Twitter @Benwell_B.