NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 23rd
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals
| Columbus Blue Jackets | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Sergei Bobrovsky |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 47-19-6 | 47-17-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.17 | 2.33 | 21.40% | 82.60% | Team Stats | 3.20 | 2.17 | 22.00% | 83.80% |
Blue Jackets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.1 CF% / 56.3 GF% / 51.4 xGF%
Capitals 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.4 CF% / 58.4 GF% / 52 xGF%
The Blue Jackets played at home against Toronto last night. The matchup will be much tougher tonight, as Washington is one of the stingiest defenses in the league. Kevin Shattenkirk’s addition has really bolstered the depth of the defenders. One area where Washington had been struggling defensively was high-danger shot attempts at 5v5 despite a strong Corsi-Allowed/60 number. However, they have turned this around so the few chances they are giving up right now are of diminished quality. This blunts the outlook for Columbus, a team that despite its goal scoring prowess this year hasn’t been a possession monster. Where Columbus is most effective offensively is in generating high-danger scoring chances. They will need to make the most of these as Braden Holtby has been virtually unbeatable on all other types of shots. He’s in a solid rhythm right now, adding risk to Columbus forwards. The Caps are pretty straight-forward in their line assignments, consistently using the top line against visiting top lines. That should lead to a very high-event ~15 minutes or so when Brandon Saad, Sam Gagner, and Cam Atkinson are on the ice. Both lines are, obviously, very strong in shot generation and don’t have strong shot suppression numbers. Defenders John Carlson and Karl Alzner figure to be the defensive pairing Atkinson’s line sees the most. They’ve been solid yet aren’t a lockdown unit based on their 5v5 CA/60 and scoring chances allowed. Things fall off a bit down the lineup, as Matt Niskanen on Washington’s second pair and Kevin Shattenkirk on the third lurk. Both have high-end defensive numbers, both in volume and quality. Columbus’s lines could change if Alex Wennberg is able to suit up, though he didn’t play last night.
While the matchup isn’t great for Columbus, the Washington offense is in a better spot. The top line of Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Alex Ovechkin are back together and coming off a strong performance against Calgary. As mentioned above, they’re likely to see a majority of their 5v5 time against Cam Atkinson’s line. This will be beneficial to them and Washington’s top trio should have no problem generating some scoring chances. Sam Gagner is out of his bottom six role due to injuries, and at this stage of his career, he creates a favorable matchup for opposing high-end centers like Backstrom or Kuznetsov. Unlike with the Blue Jackets, the Capitals matchup doesn’t get more difficult down the lineup. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams, and Marcus Johansson on the second line should see some favorable looks as well. Kuznetsov has slowed some, but he remains dangerous while Justin Williams sports a respectable HDCF/60 figure and Marcus Johansson is on the top power play unit. Also, with Andre Burakovsky back from injury, the Capitals have a quietly dangerous third scoring line. It might cutting it close to the “too cute” line with 11 other games going on tonight, but before Burakovsky got injured, he, Lars Eller, and Brett Connolly were making some music together. This line has value play implications if looking for salary cap relief. In all, this is a plus draw for the Capitals. The X-factor will be Sergei Bobrovsky who was rested last night. While the defense in front of him does tend to give up high-danger shot attempts regularly, he has been quite strong against them this year and ranks in the top five of regular starting goalies in high-danger save percentage.
Blue Jackets Elite Plays:Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays:Oliver Bjorkstrand, Sam Gagner (if Wennberg out), Zach Werenski, Seth Jones
Capitals Elite Plays:Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov
Capitals Secondary Plays:Justin Williams, John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky, Kevin Shattenkirk
Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Andrei Vasilevskiy |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 34-29-9 | 38-29-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.69 | 2.79 | 21.90% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 2.84 | 2.64 | 21.20% | 85.00% |
Lightning 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 53.7 CF% / 52.4 GF% / 51.5 xGF%
Bruins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 55.6 CF% / 50.2 GF% / 55.4 xGF%
With points beyond critical for the Lightning right now, the Lightning will find a silver lining in catching the Bruins on their third game in four nights. Tuukka Rask has been struggling, so while the Tampa Bay forwards aren’t burning up the boxscore, there is hope. At issue for the Lightning, as usual for Boston opponents, is the fact the underlying numbers don’t support a juicy matchup. Tyler Johnson won’t be back so Brayden Point will maintain his role on the top line with Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat. This line figures to see a healthy serving of Patrice Bergeron and Boston’s top line. This is suboptimal, to say the least. There are reasons to be skeptical of Jonathan Drouin and the secondary scoring lines to assume a leadership role here. On the whole the Bruins have one of the best CF% in the league; they drive play well. They have one of the lowest 5v5 CA/60 rates, scoring chances allowed, and high-danger shot attempts allowed per 60. After a few flat performances, bet on the Bruins having a bee in their bonnet. The healthy Lightning forwards with a healthy CF/60 will likely see the most difficult minutes, and the drop-off in upside is pretty severe – you’ll never feel confident rostering Vladislav Namestnikov off the top line or Yanni Gourde.
On the flipside, the outlook is a bit better for the Bruins. While Tampa Bay has solid defensive numbers, they do tend to get overwhelmed and Lightning goalies have allowed 13 goals over the past three games. Despite having a respectable 5v5 CA/60 number, Tampa Bay netminders are regularly seeing 30+ shots on net. This should be the case again tonight, and white hot Brad Marchand is basically matchup proof right now. The lack of center depth on the Lightning right now also boosts Patrice Bergeron, as though he’ll likely draw out against Nikita Kucherov, young Brayden Point should struggle in his section of the ice (to Point’s credit, he’s been good). The matchups should get a bit easier for the second and third lines, especially the third line with Brian Boyle out of town. That said, it’s probably best not to go overboard here as Tampa Bay is still a strong team.
Lightning Elite Plays:Nikita Kucherov
Lightning Secondary Plays:Jonathan Drouin, Victor Hedman Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat
Bruins Elite Plays:Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak
Bruins Secondary Plays:Torey Krug, Ryan Spooner, Frank Vatrano, David Backes
Arizona Coyotes at Florida Panthers
| Arizona Coyotes | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | James Reimer | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 27-37-9 | 31-30-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.36 | 3.18 | 14.70% | 78.00% | Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.82 | 16.40% | 85.90% |
Coyotes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 43.8 CF% / 46.6 GF% / 43.4 xGF%
Panthers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.1 CF% / 44.4 GF% / 47.4 xGF%
While Arizona played a great spoiler in Tampa Bay and made DFS fans of Nashville sweat the night prior, it’s another tough matchup to trust the Coyote forwards. The Panthers haven’t handed out many high-danger shot attempts this year. Seeing as how Arizona’s plucky offense hasn’t generated many, this sets up as another low danger affair that will pay off on lucky breaks and poor goaltending. The Panthers should have James Reimer back in the crease and he’s a fine goalie, so unless Retto Berra (lol) gets another start don’t look for goalie bump. Young Christian Fischer has been making mincemeat of his call-up, scoring three times in four NHL games this year. Still, it’s clear this is an outlier (six shots on net) and the remainder of Arizona’s forwards beyond Radim Vrbata and Max Domi don’t have consistency. Florida has a strong penalty kill, so a sneaky power play stack mixing 5v5 lines isn’t much of a viable option. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has goals in back-to-back games, completely erasing 60 other games of futility if you played him. His price is low due to his injury fueled slump but as he’s back in solid form, he makes for a decent mid-price option due to his workhorse role.
It’s been a string of frustrating performances for the Panther forwards, especially if chasing that seven goal breakout against Toronto. After all, it’s been frustrating season for Florida’s offense in general, but injuries are the problem anymore and the talent is there. In any event, Florida will be a popular play tonight despite their poor recent performance and low 5v5 xGF/60. The matchup is ripe for the plucking as Arizona has the worst across-the-board defensive metrics in the league. Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Jaromir Jagr have been the most consistent option for Florida all year and make for a terrific stack or cash game one-offs (specifically Barkov and Huberdeau). Vincent Trocheck typically gets the tough assignments at home, but tonight he’ll have it easy. He makes for a great play and has a nice floor despite his shots on goal down a bit over the past three contests. He could slip under the radar a bit after his torrid February has given way to an icy March; his price on FanDuel is especially attractive. In previously mentioned blurbs it’s been discussed to look elsewhere for cheap GPP plays – this game could feature mid-priced pivots. Jonathan Marchessault is playing quite well and Thomas Vanek, who joins him on the third line at 5v5, have nice upside tonight against Arizona’s depth. Aaron Ekblad played 18 minutes in his return from a concussion, so he’s back to a plug-and-play with bankable shot volume. Keith Yandle, who sees a good deal of power play time, has a lower floor due to an absence of shots on net but he has nice upside thanks to Arizona’s penalty kill ineptitude.
Coyotes Elite Plays: None
Coyotes Secondary Plays:Radim Vrbata, Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Panthers Elite Plays:Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Marchessault, Aaron Ekblad
Panthers Secondary Plays:Jaromir Jagr, Reilly Smith, Thomas Vanek, Jussi Jokinen, Keith Yandle, Michael Matheson
Carolina Hurricanes at Montréal Canadiens
| Carolina Hurricanes | Montréal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Eddie Lack |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 31-27-13 | 41-23-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.59 | 2.83 | 17.90% | 85.10% | Team Stats | 2.71 | 2.44 | 19.80% | 80.30% |
Hurricanes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.2 CF% / 44.2 GF% / 50.6 xGF%
Canadiens 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.8 CF% / 51 GF% / 52.5 xGF%
A surging Hurricane offense (categorically speaking, anyway) will have a tough test in Montreal. Under Claude Julien, the Canadiens have tightened things up defensively. And while they won’t be confused for Julien’s Bruins, they are still a less than ideal matchup. One thing that could work out in Carolina’s favor is it appears Carey Price is not 100% per a tweet from Renaud Lavoie yesterday. Al Montoya has been fine at home this year in relief efforts but he’s a journeyman backup for a reason. Stay tuned. Independent of goalies, however, the matchup is still a tough one for Carolina. The ‘Canes like to play at a high pace while Montreal will certainly look to slow things down. The Habs defense, over the past 25 games, have allowed the third fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5v5 and the eighth fewest high-danger shot attempts. Given that the Hurricanes have had issues putting the puck in the net despite carrying play well, a reduction in opportunity may present challenges. Carolina diversified their lines a bit of late so matching up against them is somewhat challenging; the top scoring line of Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen, and Sebastian Aho will be the main focus while a surging Elias Lindholm and dangerous Jeff Skinner lurk in the middle six. Skinner is now centered by Derek Ryan with Lee Stempniak on the wing, with whom he’s had solid chemistry this year. Despite a potentially Price-less Canadiens squad, the Hurricanes have a tough draw in Montreal and have more of a secondary option feel to them.
While Montreal has been tough on defense under Julien, the offense certainly has slowed its goal scoring pace since early in the year. To that end, Julien has moved Alex Galchenyuk to the wing and brought Phillip Danault back to the top line. This obviously impacts Galchenyuk’s appeal, especially as he won’t even be on a line with Brendan Gallagher. Danault reenters the value play conversation playing between Max Pacioretty and Alexander Radulov. On home ice the top line should be able to avoid Jordan Staal. With Carolina playing open and a young defensive core, there should be looks available to the top line. Pacioretty has bankable shot volume while Radulov is a little more volatile, though he’s proven to be a dangerous scorer this year. Carolina has trimmed the quality and quantity of scoring chances and shot attempts they allow, but defensive gains are given back by poor goaltending. Montreal will likely put Tomas Plekanec on against the top Carolina line, limiting the appeal of Paul Byron and Brendan Gallagher. Again, all is not lost when you’re facing Cam Ward or Eddie Lack. Carolina’s power play is one of the best in the league despite a few recent hiccups, so paying up for Shea Weber may not be the best play tonight with plenty of other viable options in his price range.
Hurricanes Elite Plays:Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm
Hurricanes Secondary Plays:Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Derek Ryan, Justin Faulk
Canadiens Elite Plays:Max Pacioretty, Alexander Radulov
Canadiens Secondary Plays:Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault, Paul Byron, Jeff Petry
Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Matt Murray |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 46-17-9 | 40-24-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.46 | 2.72 | 22.20% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.62 | 2.60 | 17.70% | 81.30% |
Penguins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.9 CF% / 59.2 GF% / 53.1 xGF%
Senators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.9 CF% / 45.9 GF% / 48.1 xGF%
After locking up a playoff spot (duh) in their last game, the Penguins will look to keep the pace with Washington in the Metro (and Presidents’ Trophy) race. The Senators come in off a nice win over the Bruins in which they kept the top line mostly quiet. Craig Anderson has been a strong performer when he’s played this year; it’s hard not to root for him. The Penguins can certainly agree tonight as it appears Anderson will sit for Mike Condon. Ottawa will be tasked with slowing down Sidney Crosby and his linemates. Conor Sheary has been red hot of late and makes a deadly combination with Crosby. Jake Guentzel was hurt against the Sabres and his status is up in the air. Chris Kunitz hopped back up top next to Crosby in Guentzel’s stead and really whomever plays on the top line has appeal. Crosby is on another plane right now. Evgeni Malkin will be out again so Matt Cullen will continue to center Phil Kessel while Nick Bonino also sees an expanded role. Bonino has been on fire this month, and with Patric Hornqvist back on playing next to him, make for a nice pairing. The Senators defense has improved dramatically over the past year, even with question marks on the blueline. With Ottawa having last change and all the attention going to Sidney Crosby, the second and third lines have intrigue. They will likely have no problem generating volume as Ottawa has one of the higher Corsi-Allowed/60 rates at 5v5 over the past 25 games. The potency of the shots allowed is on the weaker side but with Anderson out, this becomes a solid matchup for the lethal Penguin offense. Ottawa’s penalty kill is about average so it’s not a terrible matchup for the dangerous Pittsburgh power play. That puts Justin Schultz in play as always while he fills in for Kris Letang, with Chad Ruhwedel and Mark Streit the lower floor options seeing time on the second unit. With Malkin out Sheary has been seeing time on the top unit, further enhancing his appeal next to Sidney Crosby at both 5v5 and 5v4/3.
The matchup is beneficial to Ottawa forwards, which is good as Pittsburgh will most certainly press the issue. Of course, injuries on the Pittsburgh blueline are the major factor here, but the Penguins have been pretty generous defensively most of the year. Over their past 25 games, they are neither an overly favorable or unfavorable matchup defensively. Their Corsi-Allowed, scoring chances allowed, high-danger shots allowed, and penalty kill are all fine for attacking offenses. Between Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury, Penguins goalies have seen 30+ shots reach the net in four of the past five games. Mark Stone looks doubtful to play, which is a blow to the Ottawa offense, but the likes of Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris, and Derick Brassard still have a favorable matchup. Hoffman plays next to Jean-Gabriel Pageau at 5v5, and the Sens do like to put Pageau on opposing top lines. That would hurt Hoffman’s stock, but he sees a prominent role on the power play to help offset the matchup concerns. All told, Ottawa’s lines have some major holes in them for stacking purposes, with low floor (albeit cheap) options skating alongside the DFS targets. For example, Derick Brassard has a strong 5v5 CF%, but he’s playing next to Ryan Dzingel and Alexandre Burrows. While Ottawa certainly has appeal in tournaments, there are enough landmines in the lineup to force reconsideration.
Penguins Elite Plays:Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz, Patric Hornqvist
Penguins Secondary Plays:Phil Kessel, Matt Cullen, Nick Bonino, Chris Kunitz, Mark Streit
Senators Elite Plays:Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris
Senators Secondary Plays:Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Zack Smith, Bobby Ryan, Dion Phaneuf