NHL Grind Down: Thursday, November 24th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Carolina Hurricanes at Montréal Canadiens
| Carolina Hurricanes | Montréal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Cam Ward |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 8-6-4 | 14-4-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.56 | 2.72 | 21.10% | 91.80% | Team Stats | 3.15 | 2.25 | 23.40% | 81.80% |
Expectations were rather low for this Carolina team entering this season, but it doesn’t seem like anyone shared that with this young team. After a predictably rough start, they’ve seemingly turned the corner and after defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night, they’ve now rattled off five straight victories. With that said, they face a very tough test this evening as they travel to Montreal to battle a Canadiens team that owns an 11-1-1 record at the Bell Centre and that has allowed just 2.25 goals against per game on the young season. However, with just two games on tonight’s slate, you may still be faced into some exposure here. Jeff Skinner leads the attack for the Hurricanes and enters with a team best 16 points in 17 games this season. He’s picked up points in each of the last three games and found the back of the net when Carolina defeated Montreal in their only previous meeting this season. He’s joined on the top forward line by the dangerous duo of Jordan Staal and Sebastian Aho. Meanwhile, Victor Rask centers a very capable secondary scoring line and the 23 year old also centers the #1 power-play unit. On defense, Justin Faulk anchors that #1 power-play unit and is a fine option on the blue-line every time he hits the ice. Alternatively, Noah Hanifin continues to develop into a top pair defenseman and has posted a goal and seven assists in 18 games. He sees a healthy dose of playing time on the point of the second power-play and sports a much cheaper asking price across the industry.
After bursting out of the gates to a 13-1-1 start, things have turned around a bit lately for Montreal as a home loss to the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday means they have now dropped four of their last five games. This all seems eerily similar to 15-16 season and Michel Therrien will certainly want to nip any feelings of uncertainty in the bud quickly before it takes a toll on his hockey club. With some doubt potentially setting in and an ugly five game road trip kicking off over the weekend, tonight’s clash with Carolina carries some added significance. Offensively, we’ve grown somewhat accustomed to Max Pacioretty leading the charge in recent seasons, but with just 13 points in 20 games this season, there Captain no longer appears to the top fantasy option. As far as forwards go, that honor currently belongs to Alex Galchenyuk. The former third overall draft pick posted a career high 56 points last season and looks poised to take a major step towards NHL stardom this time around. He’s posted 21 points in 20 games this season and has thrived at the Bell Centre where he owns eight goals and nine assists in just 12 home games. He’ll be joined by Alexander Radulov (and Paul Byron) on the top forward line and both players also see plenty of playing time with the man advantage. Meanwhile, Pacioretty has been relegated to third line duties, but does remain a scoring threat on the wing of Montreal’s #1 power-play unit. On defense, both Shea Weber and Andrei Markov are fine options on a nightly basis and loom as very dangerous weapons on the point of that #1 power-play unit. Both players are very fine options on a two game slate, but Carolina does own the NHL’s #1 penalty kill this season, so keep your expectations in check.
Carolina Hurricanes
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 53.27 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -5, 109.09 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Jeff Skinner ($6,600 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.45 CF60, 3.14 xGF60, 102.2 PDO
Jordan Staal ($5,100 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.15 CF60, 3.5 xGF60, 99.41 PDO
Victor Rask ($6,000 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.84 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 105.67 PDO
Sebastian Aho ($4,000 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.28 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 97.94 PDO
Justin Faulk ($5,300 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.83 CF60, 3 xGF60, 98.53 PDO
Expected Netminder
Cam Ward – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 7 GPP
Montreal Canadiens
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.19 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 12, 118.87 CP60
Elite Options
Alex Galchenyuk ($6,900 FD, $7,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.53 CF60, 3.38 xGF60, 105.61 PDO
Shea Weber ($6,700 FD, $7,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.92 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 105.3 PDO
Secondary Options
Alexander Radulov ($6,400 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.1 CF60, 2.8 xGF60, 104.75 PDO
Max Pacioretty ($6,800 FD, $6,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 67.24 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 101.8 PDO
Brendan Gallagher ($5,500 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 69.23 CF60, 3.26 xGF60, 102.66 PDO
Andrei Markov ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.06 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 101.09 PDO
Expected Netminder
Carey Price – My Ratings (out of 10): 9 Cash, 8.5 GPP
Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators
| Boston Bruins | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 11-8-0 | 11-7-1 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.42 | 2.32 | 14.80% | 85.70% | Team Stats | 2.16 | 2.58 | 10.50% | 86.40% |
Despite outshooting the St. Louis Blues 41-28, the Bruins dropped a tough 4-2 decision on Tuesday night. However, they’ve still posted a rock solid 8-4-0 record since a mediocre start to the season and look to be finally getting back to near full health (Zdeno Chara is now sidelined for the foreseeable future). Claude Julien has two very dangerous forward lines to throw over the boards and it all starts with the dynamic duo of Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron on the top line. It’s been a very slow start for Bergeron this season (just three goals and a pair of assists in 16 games) but he’s one of the best two-way players in the NHL and he posted 32 goals and 36 assists last season. On the other hand, Marchand is actually off to a fine start as he leads the team with 17 points in 19 games. Those two will be happy to finally have David Pastrnak back on their wing as he’s posted four goals and ten assists in 14 games this season but has been sidelined for nearly two weeks with an upper body injury. David Krejci is often overlooked from a fantasy standpoint, but with David Backes and Matt Beleskey on his wing, he’s more than capable of a multi-point effort if the Senators put too much focus on slowing down Marchand/Bergeron. On defense, Chara’s absence means all the minutes Torey Krug can handle. Krug quarterback’s the #1 power-play unit and has picked up points in each of the last two games. The Chara injury also means a heavier workload for John-Michael Liles but despite flashing some offensive upside in the past, he’s simply been unable to generate much offense thus far this season.
The Senators picked up a big 4-3 win in Montreal on Tuesday night and now find themselves sitting just one point ahead of these Boston Bruins in the Atlantic Division. When targeting them in DFS hockey, you simply have to start with Erik Karlsson on the blue-line. He’s arguably the #1 fantasy defenseman in the entire league (Brent Burns may disagree) and unsurprisingly leads the team with 16 points in 19 games. He racked up six assists in the four games against this Boston team last season and can be used with confidence in all formats if you can find a way to squeeze his big-ticket asking price into your lineups. Up-front, things are a little bit more foggy. Bobby Ryan is unlikely to play this evening with a broken finger and Guy Boucher has spread his other reliable scoring options across three different forward lines. Further complicating things is the potentially very difficult matchup for whichever forward line Claude Julien may decide who to shadow with the defensively stout duo of Bergeron and Marchand. However, on a two-game slate, we don’t have the luxury of looking elsewhere and for that reason I’ll be targeting the Ottawa power-play tonight. Kyle Turris and Mark Stone both enter tonight’s game with 11 points on the season and are joined by the speedy Mike Hoffman and Derick Brassard on the #1 power-play unit (with Karlsson facilitating things from the point). All four forwards offer plenty of offensive upside and also happen to be very reasonably priced on most sites.
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 53.92 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 2, 112.19 CP60
Elite Options
None
Patrice Bergeron ($6,700 FD, $6,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 71.84 CF60, 2.66 xGF60, 98.62 PDO
Secondary Options
David Krejci ($5,700 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.53 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 97 PDO
David Pastrnak ($6,200 FD, $6,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 76.26 CF60, 3.7 xGF60, 105.13 PDO
David Backes ($5,600 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.74 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 104.38 PDO
Torey Krug ($5,500 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.27 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 97.36 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Ottawa Senators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 48.31 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -11, 117.45 CP60
Elite Options
Erik Karlsson ($7,200 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.41 CF60, 2.8 xGF60, 99.94 PDO
Secondary Options
Mike Hoffman ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.1 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 98.68 PDO
Kyle Turris ($5,300 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.29 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 98.81 PDO
Mark Stone ($5,900 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.43 CF60, 3.15 xGF60, 96.03 PDO
Derick Brassard ($4,900 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.54 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 96.94 PDO
Ryan Dzingel ($3,500 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59 CF60, 2.83 xGF60, 101.52 PDO
Expected Netminder
Craig Anderson – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 7 GPP