Stuff Happened - Week 14 Edition
Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Matt Asiata are ruining daily fantasy football. They are. Seriously.
For Le’Veon, you can’t not own him. It’s not just Week 14, where he rushed for 236 yards and three scores, while adding in 62 yards receiving on four grabs. He’s had at least 23 carries in each of the last four weeks, which has translated into 110+ yards and a 3-point bonus in each week, to go with five total scores. Then, if that’s not enough, he’s averaged 6.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 50.75 yards receiving over the same span. With that sort of upside, you can’t conceive of fading him in tournaments.
David Johnson’s ceiling is the same.
In cash, you can’t not own David Johnson. His lowest score this entire season is 15.4. He’s been under 23 just four times. His average volume load is 20 carries and 8 targets. He has a larger portion of his team’s scores than anyone else in the NFL. There’s no better way to lock up points than David Johnson.
Le’Veon Bell’s floor is the same.
How can you fade either of them? Simply put, you can’t. That means, this week, you’re starting by using 40% of your salary cap ($19,900 combined), on 22% of your roster. How does that ruin daily fantasy? It means to beat your competition, who obviously know you can’t fade either guy as well, you must beat them with tight end, fill in wide receivers, and defenses. Not exactly the exhilarating experience you look for when signing up.
Also, it negates your skills. Think you can assess the top-tier wide receivers better than your competition? Who cares, you can’t play them. Are you the Andrew Luck whisperer, knowing when he’ll go off? Worthless. Think you can pick between Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Travis Kelce better than anyone else? Do it in season-long then. You can’t afford them. All because you have to pay for Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson every week.
Ruining Fantasy.
And, Matt Asiata you ask?
Stuff Happened, Week 14 Edition
QB – If you’re looking for the reason why scoring was down in Week 14, look no further than quarterback play. Whether weather, second in-division games (6), or something else was to blame, ESPN Stats & Info tweeted that going into the Monday Night game, Week 14 was on pace to have the lowest cumulative Total QBR since they started calculating it in 2006. I don’t know what a Total QBR is, and I couldn’t pick one out of a stat lineup. Still, that can’t be good.
On the main slate, the scores were very bunched, mainly because they were all under 22. There’s just not that much space for 28 scores to fit. Matt Ryan led the way with a 21.48, followed by Aaron Rodgers (21.24) and Trevor Siemian (20.36). As you can see, the concession from Ryan to Siemian was one of the alterations necessary to fit the highest scoring lineup under the salary cap. Also, no Grout level quarterback even put up 4 PT/$K, but the closest was Siemian, at 3.992. I read about him somewhere this week, but I can’t recall where.
What was nice was that quarterback ownership was spread out, so we each had our very own disappointing score. The four QBs over 7% ownership in the FF Millionaire were Andrew Luck (19.24 PTs, 7.49%), Kirk Cousins (16.96 PTs, 11.51%), Jameis Winston (8.96 PTs, 13.45%), and Eli Manning (8.52 PTs, 8.86%).
RB – You might expect running back scoring to be up, as the other end of the teeter-totter from passing stats. Or, you might expect running back scoring to be down. Those third-and-longs aren’t going to convert themselves, after all. Either way, you’re wrong. The position was pretty much the same: three scores in the 30s, six over 20, and a couple close behind. For the 23.12% in the FF Millionaire that had Le’Veon and our highest score for the year, scoring was up. For the rest though, the same.
Of the three 30-point scores, Le’Veon’s was the easiest to put in your lineup. In fact, you had to do it! Between Bilal Powell (37.9 PTs) and Carlos Hyde (30 PTs), you were choosing between a back-up running back in a great matchup and a starter in terrible one. It’s hard to choose either, so congrats to anyone who chose both. Given Powell’s 0.26% ownership in the FF Millionaire, I’m guessing the only lineup to make that choice was the optimal one.
Following those three 30-pointers were three in the 20s. Jeremy Hill cracked 1.5 YPC mark for the first time in two weeks, on his way to 26.2 points, while LeSean McCoy cracked the goal line for the first time in the same span, totaling 22.8 in the process. Then there was Lamar Miller’s 22.1 on $5,100. Again, somewhere. I don’t know.
Lastly, my apologies to the 18.63% of FF Millionaire owners that had Devonta Freeman ($6,100, 3.8 PTs), to the 11.31% who owned Matt Forte ($6,800, 0.8%), and to the 9.13% who owned Melvin Gordon ($7,400, 0.5 PTs). Blowouts, both in score and to knees and hips, suck.
WR
Yep. And, Emmanuel Sanders couldn’t have made it by less, totaling exactly 30 points. T.Y. Hilton trailed him by only a half-point, with 29.5, and Sanders’ teammate, Demaryius Thomas, was third on the main slate with 25.6. There were seven total wide receivers with 20-or-more points this week, and every one of them except Kenny Stills ($3,700, 21.7) was over $5,000 (non-Grout). The concession from Thomas down to Stills was a 3.9-point drop, but it was the other necessary move to make the highest scoring lineup fit the $50,000 salary cap guidelines.
Sanders and Hilton were two of the six most owned receivers in the FF Millionaire, coming in at fifth (Sanders, 13.34%) and sixth (Hilton, 12.81%) respectively. The highest-owned pass catcher, Taylor Gabriel (31.11%), continued to make just a few touches count. He caught only three balls in the Falcons’ Jeff Fisher – Finish Him game, but one was 64-yard score. Mustachality!
TE – There’s a theory, that older guys wear down late in the season. Players like Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, and Frank Gore, who start the year with spry legs and high scores, tend to fizzle at the end. Maybe that’s true. What’s the explanation then, for Zach Ertz? Last season, in his last three games, he totaled 30 receptions for 352 yards, which were 40% and 41% of his season totals, respectively. It’s starting earlier this year, but his 19 receptions and 191 yards over the last two weeks are 33% and 34% of his season totals this year.
Anyway, his 24.2 points led the position for the week, and he had one of only two 20-point games at the position on the main slate (Tyler Eifert, 21.8 PTs). There was a little cliff after that, as Kyle Rudolph’s 16-point game was the only other TE score over 15.
DST – The Falcons had 50% of all the defensive scores on the main slate, so it’s unsurprising they led the field by a full seven points. What was surprising was that none of the four highest priced squads made it to double digits, something 10 teams did. In fact, within the nine most expensive team defenses, you find the Falcon’s 29 points, the Titan’s 11, and seven of the 18 total single digit scores for the slate, including Seattle’s -3. Absent the Falcons, the less you paid at defense, the better.
Making a Millionaire
amorris525 took down the FF Millionaire crown this week, and for the first time in three weeks, it was a competitive race. He bested sharrison324 by 1.40. (Am I the only one in the world that wishes he would have won by 2.01? 525-324. I am, aren’t I?)
Alfred won with just four players from the optimal scoring lineup, Le’Veon Bell, Emmanuel Sanders, Zach Ertz, and the Falcons defense, though they were the highest scoring players at four of the five positions. The remaining five players were responsible for the 40.6 points he was shy of perfect, with the blame falling as follows:
Kirk Cousins was 4.52 points shy of Matt Ryan
Jeremy Hill was 11.7 points shy of Bilal Powell
Taylor Gabriel was 12.3 points shy of T.Y. Hilton
Jarvis Landry was 5.4 points shy of Kenny Stills (right team though!)
DeSean Jackson was 7.8 points shy of Carlos Hyde (flex)
His total score 233.86 was only 85% of the optimal score, one of the lower percentages this season. Given that one player put up 20% of the optimal score (L. Bell) and given that quarterback scores were so bunched, I find that somewhat surprising. Then again, the optimal score, excluding Bilal Powell was 262.76, and Alf had 89% of that, which has been the most common portion of optimal this season.
Lastly, on the mass multi-entry front, janxon007 had a good week. Of his 150 entries, four of them finished in the Top 20: fourth, seventh, eighth, and twentieth. Beyond him though, no one else with even 5 entries finished in the top eleven, and no one else with 25+ entries finished in the Top 26. Likely another losing weekend for the MME-crowd.
Grout for a Shout
I intentionally spurned @ScottBarrettDFS’s suggestion and left Robby Anderson out of my Fantasy Grout column. After all, Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa were still healthy and on the field. Plus, I just couldn’t get behind Bryce Petty. Yet, “get behind” was exactly what the Jets did, and it only took slightly more than a minute. Their deficit grew to 14 by the time 270 seconds had lapsed, and they trailed until their tying field goal with 38 seconds left.
Meanwhile, the Falcons took a 7-point lead 10 seconds into their contest, a lead they would never relinquish. While I preferred Aldrick Robinson over Robby Anderson, and that proved to be wrong, I still stand by my decision.
With that said, NickyJ51, Indycrocodile, reddogv31, shanekern03, and 1010mg, they stand by their results. They all picked Anderson, who went for 17.10 points on his minimum salary, good for 5.7 PT/$K. In a low scoring week, that was good for the fifth highest Grout level player (B. Powell, C. Hyde, K. Stills & Terrance Williams), and the highest Grout player selected. I can only think of one way to should out five people who all picked Mr. Anderson.
NickyJ51 used consecutive Grout for a Shout wins to climb from 13th to 5th, over two weeks. I’m a little miffed about him using his one-time twice, but you know, what’s an extra time between friends?
The main mover, though, was TherealTG, who was in second place last week. He had made a pick nine weeks in a row, before taking the last four weeks off. In turn, he fell below the two-thirds threshold and out of the running. If someone knows TherealTG, can you check on him? I’d like to be sure he’s alright.
Then, there’s SwaguarsFan, who is running away with this thing. He’s over 0.4 PT/$K clear of the field, and now that he’s not taking running backs anymore, it might be time to pack this whole thing up.
You would have thought that consecutive wins at least would be enough to springboard NickyJ51 into the lead in the Second Half competition, but nope. Second place is the best he could do. RoofingMan continues to hold it down, with finishes dating back to Week 10 of 2nd, 2nd, T-20th, 9th, and T-13th. Will the RoofingMan stay on top? Come back next week to find out!
Oh, one last thing. JMtoWin picked Joshua Bellamy to take an 8-6 lead on me. Of all the people to run bad on Grout for a Shout picks, I’m the one it hurts the most. Yet…
If I had run better on any of these three instances, it’d be a tie ball game. Instead, I’m chasing without much track left to chase on. Yes Michelle Tanner, Bummer Dude indeed.