The Fantasy Grout, Week 11 - Mistakes Were Made
I think I’m making some mistakes, and I’m not sure how to proceed. Let’s get some advice.
“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.” – Albert Einstein
Well, now I don’t feel so bad. I’m definitely not just rolling with the status quo.
”Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes.” – Mahatma Gandhi
Yeah, Freedom!
”Wise men learn by other men’s mistakes, fools by their own.” – Italian Proverb
Wait. I should let you make these mistakes?
“To err is human, to forgive, divine.” – Alexander Pope
Okay. So not only is in inevitable I’ll make mistakes, it’s on YOU to forgive me.
”Fou Yucked Up! (or something close to that, with a rhythmic point.)” – Badger Fans
I know. Jeez. You didn’t have to be so mean about it.
“Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time.” – George Bernard Shaw
Okay, so I just need to fix these mistakes.
“Some of the worst mistakes in my life were haircuts” – Jim Morrison
What are you trying to say? I’m getting a little bushy? Fine. I’ll get my ears lowered before GrindersLive on Friday. Can we stay on point?
“All men make mistakes, but a good man yields when he knows his course is wrong, and repairs the evil. The only crime is pride.” – Sophocles
Pride? Did you hear those Badger fans? It’s embarrassing for me. Time to “repair the evil”.
“We all make mistakes but one has to move on.” – Jeffery Archer
Alright, the bit has run it’s course. Let’s identify some of these mistakes, and see if we can fix them.
1) 3-4,000 Words. Come on.
My Week 2 article last year was 1,700 words. Now, I’m trying to do too much (see above). I refuse to go head-long into picks without some fantasy foreplay, but I promise to go less-is-more where possible. I’m going to pare way back on recapping last week, and I’m going to move all Grout for a Shout stuff in the comments section. Let’s see if we can say what we need to say in 2,500 words.
2) Not all picks are created equal. Act like it.
I don’t have the same confidence in all picks. In fact, sometimes, I’ll make a pick knowing that I’m not considering that person for my own lineups. Some of it has to do with downside risk (I’m mostly a cash player), and some is just being blustery. For Charcandrick West in Week 6 and Jeremy Langford in Week 9, I was all in. James Starks last week? Not until Eddie Lacy was ruled out was I really considering him. For all three, my tone here was the same. That ends now. I’m going to be much more clear about my confidence in these plays, going forward. That’s what you are here for, my honest opinions, right?
3) Knock it off with the cheap tight ends.
With a cap of $3,500, I end up recommending tight ends with no upside. Sure, Richard Rodgers scored last week, and his 14.2 on a $3,000 salary was good for 4.7 PT/$K. That 14.2 isn’t winning GPPs for anyone. Here on out, I’m going up to $4,500 as my salary ceiling. Sure, it doesn’t restrict many tight ends, but given the dearth of tight end talent, purely removing Gronk from the player pool makes it tough enough.
4) Can you be any more corny?
Yes. Staying at my current dad-joke level is doing you a favor. It gets much worse!
5) Can you try to get this up before the Thursday Night game starts?
Yes. I typically pull an all-nighter writing this Wednesday night, and it still bleeds into early afternoon Thursday. If I make a point to have most research done Monday, and if I tone down the 4,000 word novels, you should have this for your Thursday morning trip to the, uh, … reading room … at work.
Starting next week!
6) Win something already.
On it.
QUARTERBACK
The weird thing about the evolution of quarterback pricing on DraftKings is how much cheaper they are than all other players, despite way higher averages. For instance, Joe Flacco, who is averaging a shade over 19.5 DK PPG, is $5,300 this week. That means his average is 3.7 PT/$K. Meanwhile, Todd Gurley is $7,600 and Brandon Marshall is $7,000, both averaging less than Flacco.
When you’re doing calculations about how many PT/$K you need to cash, you almost need to adjust it by position, at this point. If you don’t get 4 PT/$K at QB, you probably picked the wrong guy. There are only eight non-Grout QBs this week. Meanwhile eight starters are $5,000 and another eight are more than $5,000 but less than $5,500. Pick ‘em If Ya Got ‘Em!
GANG GROUT
BLAKE BORTLES, $5,900 VS TEN – The era of the settlers was a simpler time. Material possessions were so few, that the things they did have were cherished. I imagine that is the reason wagons are still so prevalent in our expressions today. The meat wagon takes you to the hospital, the paddy wagon takes you to jail, while I’m told the honey wagon carries the exact opposite of honey. If you’re on the wagon, you’re not drinking (no Bortles & Jaymes onboard!), but if it’s a monkey wagon, you’re on drugs. With regard to Bortles, I was driving the bandwagon last week, and frankly, it crashed. I’m going to circle the wagons this week, and get back on the wagon. Plus, since everyone got off last week, there will be room to fit my W.A.G. on.
Ultimately, I’m trying to play a trustworthy quarterback every week, even deep down in the Grout. Surprisingly, Bortles qualifies, as the highest scoring QB, $6K or below, and the 8th highest scoring QB in the slate. If you’re a box checker, get your pen out: □ At Home. □ Strong Weapons. □ Lowish Ownership. □ Neutral Match-up. □ Wagons.
Also, he’s 8th in the NFL in attempts, and I believe that is helped by his 11 interceptions, 4th in the league. It creates situations where the other team can get out in front, without needing long, clock-eating drives to do it. Oh, and if you’re chapped about the -1, just know he’ll offset that with his feet, as he’s run for 20-30 yards in five of seven. Also, if every player gets three paragraphs, do you think I’m going finish in 2,500 words? Point your index finger straight in the air, and get your wag on.
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
MARK SANCHEZ, $5,000 VS TB – If I could Select All -> Delete Bradford’s nine games this year from my memory, I’d be drooling over Sanchez at a minimum salary. In nine games last year, Sanchez had 292 or more in five, and multiple TDs in seven. Alas, the Bradford stink lingers, which makes me wonder if the Boomer Sooner was a honey wagon.
MATTHEW STAFFORD, $5,400 VS OAK – Having a game this season with passing yardage in the 400s but none in the 300s, makes me think of a guy who decides to run marathon before running a half. With 8-of-9 games under 300, it makes me think of how that guy would fail.
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RUNNING BACK
Ten of twenty-eight starters are too expensive for us this week. Among the options in our price-range ($5,500 or less), the choices are obvious. “Less-is-More” time.
GANG GROUT
CHARCANDRICK WEST, $4,500 VS SD – Everything I said about him in Week 6 turned out to be absolutely true, albeit a week early. Now, as a nice little road favorite, he draws the team allowing the highest YPC to RBs, the 5th most RB receiving yards per game, and the 3rd most RB TDs per game.
So, all that’s left to do, after you plug him into 100% of your lineups, is to resolve this little matter. His first name IS a complete sentence, as dricking is definitely using fantasy football to get twitter followers.
DARREN MCFADDEN, $5,000 AT MIA – You know, if the New York Attorney General, Erik Schneiderman took as long to act as DraftKings does to adjust pricing, New Yorkers could easily celebrate the 10 year anniversary of Plaxico Burress shooting himself in a nightclub, three years from now, by taking a shot with an Eli/Odell/Rueben double barrel Giants stack.
McFadden was $3,800 in his first start three weeks ago, and his salary has only appreciated $1,200, despite averaging 25 touches a game in three subpar matchups. Now, he gets the Dolphins, who have allowed the most running back scores in the NFL, while surrendering the 4th most rush yards per game and allowing five+ receptions to four different backs over the last four weeks. To put that $5,000 in prospective, it is still only 1/17 of the money Schneiderman accepted in campaign contributions from casino-related donors last year. That is to say, a bargain!
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
LEGARRETTE BLOUNT, $5,000 VS BUF – If this is a Blount game, a successful Blount game, it will be. (I’m still working through my trust issues with Patriots backs, but it’s coming along.)
LESEAN MCCOY, $5,500 AT NE – Not a great spot, but a huge bargain on the Talent Per Dollar scale.
JONATHAN STEWART, $4,400 VS WAS – Can we just blatantly change his nickname to whatever Jon Stewart calls his new HBO project? One possibility for a show title is “A Touchdown Favorite Getting 20+ Carries Against a Sieve Defense,” although it is early in the brainstorming process.
WIDE RECEIVER
Between running back and wide receiver, there is going to be too much value this week. That’s a good thing, as you can make obvious plays at not quite as high an ownership level. Play West. Play the first recommendation below. Sprinkle the rest.
GANG GROUT
DANNY AMENDOLA, $4,000 VS BUF – Pro Football Focus can keep telling me how great the Bills’ corners are if they’d like. I’m done with the discussion though. They are what that green “22nd” tells us they are. The fact that Buffalo is especially vulnerable in the slot bolsters Amendola’s cause. Like the penthouse, he has an incredibly high floor.
My only hope is that Edelman’s scoring rubs off on Amendola. Edelman had four scores all of last year, but this year, in only nine games, he had six, on 17 red zone targets. Both lead the Patriots. In games where Edelman is out, Amendola basically becomes Edelman. Danny, just stay away from this chick.
STEVIE JOHNSON, $3,900 VS KC – The Raiders versus tight ends and the Chiefs versus wide receivers, how dare these teams improve! While the Chiefs are no longer the nuts as far as matchups for your wide outs go, they aren’t the 2013 Seahawks either. Johnson caught 7-for-70 on ten targets in the first game the Chargers played without Keenan Allen, and was a shoestring from a score on their 2nd-to-the-last drive.
The Chiefs have restricted Teddy Bridgewater, Landry Jones, Matthew Stafford, and 2015 Peyton Manning the last four weeks. Up against the quarterback leading the NFL in attempts and completions, and trailing only Tom Brady in yards, the Kansas City secondary doesn’t have to hold back a stream but rather an ocean of passing coming their way. The dam will break and gallons and gallons of pass yards will surge past them. (I’ve really made Philip Rivers’ passing sound lovely, which his full body shot-put surely isn’t!)
SAMMY WATKINS, $4,800 AT NE – The Patriots have ceded the third most receptions per game to wide receivers and the fourth most yards per game to wide receivers over the last half a season, and Watkins basically represents all of the Bills wide receivers. Huge upside, below $5,000. GPP ASAP.
More pressing is to note that at one time, Clemson had DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant on their roster. Last week, that was $19,200 in salary. Hopkins had 16.7, a down day, Bryant went off for 31.8, and Watkins was held in check (1.4) by Revis, for a total of 49.9 points and 2.599 PT/$K. Which trifecta of Tigers will have the highest composite day in 2015? The Clemson trio or the LSU group of Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Rueben Randle? Might Leonard Hankerson, Travis Benjamin, and Allen Hurns sneak in and take the WR title?
…
Okay, I’m back. “Who went to what school?” is some rabbit hole. I didn’t think I was going to make it back. Shout-out to Iowa, who have 23 players in the NFL: 8 O-Linemen & 5 Tight Ends on offense, 5 D-Linemen, 3 Linebackers & 2 Safeties on defense. Do what you do and do it well.
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
STEFON DIGGS, $5,000 VS GB – The last two weeks, he turned back to Steve Digs. Against the Packers’ swiss cheese secondary, the return of Stefon Diggs is inevitable.
BRANDON LAFELL, $4,300 VS BUF + MALCOM FLOYD, $3,900 VS KC – Like a utility infielder, I’m just covering my bases here.
MICHAEL FLOYD, $3,800 VS CIN – Hard to ignore the production, or the hamstring injury.
BRIAN QUICK, $3,000 AT BAL – … he said with no confidence whatsoever.
TIGHT END
Ugh. Tight end is the worst. Pay up for someone. I feel like I’m looking in the fridge nine days after the last shopping trip. There’s nothing there, but you just keep scanning. Eventually, you think to yourself, I could put cream cheese on toast, right?
GANG GROUT
ERIC EBRON, $3,500 VS OAK –He’s got five targets in every game since returning from injury and you know, Oakland. The cream cheese on toast of Fantasy Grout tight ends this week.
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
RICHARD RODGERS, $3,100 AT MIN – The stale Cheerios in water you chose not to have….
No mistaking this, I finished in 2,300 words!