The Fantasy Grout, Week 6 - Ownership

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2015-10-20 14:33:35

“Are we still doing this? Really?” – Me, Monday morning, upon discovering that all the noise surrounding the daily fantasy scandal hadn’t ended with week 5 of the NFL season. Sigh.

Well, if we’re still going forward with Insider Trading Gate(?) (Ethangate? Might as well be Backlash-Against-The-Commercials-Gate), I thought this week, we’d live a week in the life of the lucky. A week in the life of those In-The-Know. A week with all the “Insider Information”!

To start, I double-checked, and confirmed that, contrary to New York Times reporting, no DraftKings employees had access to a crystal ball before lineup lock. Player performance was still a mystery to them, like everyone else. The sensitive information we’re discussing is just ownership percentages, and even though Ethan didn’t have access to these numbers before lineup lock, let’s pretend we do.

Instead of focusing on the Optimal Lineup, let’s look at optimal ownership, which is the presumed advantage those “insiders” had. We’ll work off now known data about player ownership in the Millionaire Maker tournament, and see if we can beat chenthai15’s winning lineup.

Also, after noting a player’s ownership percentage in the Millionaire Maker, I may also mention in parenthesis their ownership percentage from FanDuel’s Thursday night lock, 4,600 entry $1-Dive. This information was public days before Sunday lineup lock, so it might shine some light on how close us uninformed masses are to knowing the same “sensitive information” about which, the New York Times was so worried.

(The link above is from louiescards’ NFL Field Report: Week 5, available on this site every week. If you think this helpful, wait until you click “Sign Up” in the top right-hand corner, go through the links to deposit on a daily fantasy site, and get your hands on the Incentives. Crack for Football Stat-Junkies.)

LAST WEEK

We’ll start at quarterback where, with the bye week and Thursday night signal callers removed, we had 26 starting QBs from which to choose. Obviously, we wouldn’t be starting Tom Brady, who ended up with 25.3 points, as he was owned in 21.17% of Millionaire Maker lineups (23.7% on FanDuel, Thursday). If we are going to flatly pick the lowest owned, we’re looking at Brandon Weeden’s 8.32 points, Nick Foles’ 5.84 or Mike Vick’s 13.52, all 0% owned, when rounded. I’ll be fair though, as I think most struggle to stomach starting a QB below $5,500. At that level or above, your “Insider Trading” quarterback:

With the remaining three positions, there are going to be many, many 0% ownerships, so we’ve got to establish guidelines. We’ll plan to roster a running back in the flex, making it three of each for RB & WR, and we’ll take a high-priced, mid-priced, and value-guy at both positions.

At running back, you won’t be experiencing any of Le’Veon Bell’s 25.7 (36.83%-MM, 30.5%-FD), Dion Lewis’s 23.3 (27.37%-MM, 12.6%-FD), or Justin Forsett’s 30 (23.78%-MM, 12.4%-FD). On the flipside, congrats on avoiding, Jamaal Charles’s ACL-induced 9.4 (29.68%, 15.8%).

As a side note, you’re going to see positional players with a higher ownership in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker than FanDuel’s Thursday numbers, and for good reason. Because you only start two backs and three wide receivers on FanDuel, with no flex, it skews those numbers down. They are still in the same basic order, ownership-wise, so using Thursday data to figure out Sunday ownership is still a job I’d feel comfortable delegating to an 8 year-old.

If we take the Top 10 running backs, price-wise, the price floor is $6,000, exactly. The two guys below 1% ownership, i.e. the ones people get a huge advantage in owning were … Jeremy Hill’s 3.5 points and Latavius Murray’s 8.7. Hill’s ownership was lower, by 0.62%, so he’s your “stud.”

For your mid-tier back, we’ll go from sub-$6000 to $4,500, leaving 14 un-injured options available to the Millionaire Maker slate. Your lowest-owned, Insider-Trading-Special is … DeAngelo Williams. Then Andre Ellington. Both guys round to 0%. I understand no one is rationally starting a backup in the mid-tier price range in most cases, so I’ll hop up to the next lowest-owned guy, Melvin Gordon.

At value RB, I’m going to give you the lowest-owned running back over 0.50%. While that means you will miss out on Theo Riddick’s 21.3 and Ryan Mathews’s 18.6, both less than half-a-percent owned, you also are avoiding Tevin Coleman’s 0.3 and Andre Williams’s bagel. Frankly, if I just give you the lowest owned running back who played, you’re take a zero, every week, so be happy with what you get! And that player is … Charles Sims’s 136 total yards, with four receptions. Congrats!

The Top 15 wide receivers, by price, span from Julio Jones to $6,000 (Jeremy Maclin). The mid-range, fitting in under $6,000 and over $4,000, is 20 receivers deep. For value WR and for your tight end, we consider anyone not in another section, over 0.5% owned. Your receiving corps:

Lastly, defense is pretty self-explanatory. So, your all “Insider Trading” Millionaire Maker Roster is…

Total Points: 75.72
Total Salary: $40,900

It seems we fell a little sort of chenthai15’s 255.62. Maybe ownership information isn’t that important, and to the extent it is important, it’s readily available? Nah. More scandal!

QUARTERBACK

We are continuing to impose the new Fantasy Grout price limit of $6,000, as quarterback salaries sag. There was a time on DraftKings, when Tyrod Taylor’s injury becoming public, after prices had come out, meant his backup would be a hot commodity. With Colin Kaepernick being minimum-priced already, coming off a 20+ point performance, it’s moot. In the same vein as the tight end salary floor being dropped for this season, I wonder if there will be some tweaks to the quarterback pricing framework going into next year.

GANG GROUT

ANDY DALTON, $5,700 AT BUF – Andy, please forgive me. I know over the first four weeks, putting you on Gang Grout or at least leaving you in the bucket, was nothing but successful. I know I shouldn’t have passed on you last week. For a fantasy stud like yourself, you see the words “The Legion of Boom,” and just notice the holes in the four “o”s. They couldn’t stop you from amassing over 31 points, including a scoring QB-dive from just outside the red zone (yardage approximate). I was wrong. Please take me back.

If I was a DraftKings employee, the real information I’d like access to is the pricing algorithm. Does it have a glitch? Is it seeing the red in Dalton’s hair and assuming his fantasy score starts negative each week, rather than at “0”? It’s not like he played a Sunday or Monday night game, where his price couldn’t be adjusted in time. How can he only be $5,700, tied for the 16th highest priced QB across the whole 14 game slate? He’s the second highest scoring quarterback this year, using DraftKings’ scoring on a per game basis.

A couple weeks back, I joked that pricing was taking into account the narrative of him being a bad quarterback because he’s (0-4) in the playoffs. Today, I officially remove the “joking” qualifier from that comment. Maybe that narrative is seeping into pricing through ownership data, where he was only 1.4% owned in the Millionaire Maker in week 5. Still that piggy-backs on a 16.5% ownership the week prior to that. Much like George Costanza’s stance on Frog, $5,700 is wrong.

By the way, Dalton’s matchup for the week, Rex Ryan’s pass defense, isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Maybe it’s due to the effectiveness of their run-stopping or maybe it’s the level of QB competition they’ve faced thus far, but the Bills have been generous through the air this year. Before stifling Marcus Mariota last week, they ceded 300-and-2.5 per game over their first four. Even if they were the ’85 Bears, at this point, it’s obvious: You can’t stop the Red Rifle, you can only hope to contain him.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

SAM BRADFORD, $6,000 VS NYG – I said last week on The Friday Night Grind, that Sam Bradford looks like a backup quarterback. I wasn’t wrong. Beermakersfan countered that with the system and the matchup, it didn’t matter. He was even less wrong.

COLIN KAEPERNICK, $5,000 VS BAL – But not in cash…

RUNNING BACK

I rostered Dion Lewis in nearly every lineup last week. Upon hearing his running back coach’s assessment of Boobie Dixon’s explosiveness, I rostered him in none. I apologize to you, for this article last week not reflecting those opinions. Dixon was a change of viewpoint, but Lewis was a flat oversight. Making this silly mistake makes me feel like a Boobie.

GANG GROUT

CHARCANDRICK WEST, $4,000 AT MIN – Plug-and-Play. Andy Reid just makes running backs look good, in much the same way Will Smith makes the Men in Black outfit look good and Brooklyn Decker makes anything look good. Don’t let it deter you that he’s undrafted. from only the second most famous Christian school in Texas. Don’t fret that when you click on his name, DraftKings doesn’t even have a picture. Don’t worry for a second that he wasn’t even invited at the Combine. (He ran 4.27 at his pro day.) Plug-and-Play.

For any worries that Knile Davis is the guy, know that West ran with the 1s in preseason. He had a 7-to-2 advantage in carries and a 18-to-4 advantage in snaps, after Charles went down last week. He also went for 3.4 more yards per carry in that game. Coach Andy Reid, prior to week 5, confirmed West had taken over as the backup, in part, because of his ability in the pass game (“PPR Me ASAP!”) Davis hadn’t even taken an offensive snap in the prior two weeks.

If you’re concerned about his ability to thrive in the role, Charles only played two series before ceding to West in the preseason week 3 dress rehearsal. West went for 5.2 YPC on 9 totes, caught a couple balls out of the backfield, and even scored on a 2-point conversion rush. To me, I’m much more concerned with his name. “C West” puts him in the exclusive “Name is a Complete Sentence” club, but more importantly, if “dricking” is a thing, he joins the ‘First Name is a Complete Sentence’ club, becoming possibly the only member.

DANNY WOODHEAD, $4,700 AT GB – Better late than never, DraftKings. It only took six weeks to price Woodhead ahead of Gordon. Now, if we can just address that $4,700 is still way too low. At this salary, his highest to date, he would have gone for 4.51, 3.49, 1.55, 3.79, and 2.68 PT/$K this season.

Now, as the “passing downs back,” in a game where the Chargers are the biggest underdog of the weekend, I’d expect Woodhead to get more grabs than a handsy salesman after a couple whiskeys. Lest we forget, he’s still the “goal-line back” as well, out-touching Gordon 9-to-1 in red zone this year. (Did I mention RotoGrinders’ Incentives are helpful?) It is because of all this, I’m forgoing the #NarrativeStreet play of Gordon returning to Wisconsin and recommending the pride of Chadron State instead!

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

LEGARRETTE BLOUNT, $4,400 AT IND – “I know what you’re thinking. ‘Do the Patriots clobber the Colts through the air or on the ground?’ I’m not sure myself. But being that the last three times they’ve met, the Pats big back has gone for 148-and-3, 201-and-4, & 166-and-4, you’ve gotta ask yourself one question, ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya, punk?”

JAVORIUS ALLEN, $4,300 AT SF – If Forsett sits, Gitty Up, Buckeroo.

CHRIS JOHNSON, 4,600 AT PIT – Andre Ellington is priced $400 more than Chris Johnson. Obviously DraftKings is thinking … … I don’t know what the hell they’re thinking.

(By the way, don’t worry about the other Johnson twice playing the vulture last game. Chris is third in the NFL in red zone carries, behind only Devonta Freeman and Jeremy Hill. Why don’t you have Incentives, butthead?)

GIOVANI BERNARD, $4,600 AT BUF – Gio, surprisingly, is tied for fourth on that list.

WIDE RECEIVER

There’s a lot less value out there at wide receiver than last week. We’ll make due, as always, but you might consider wide receiver boulders held in place by running back grout this week.

GANG GROUT

DWAYNE HARRIS, $3,100 AT PHI – I never say never, but it is extremely unlikely that Eli Manning will drop back to pass this week, against the accommodating Eagles secondary, and throw it to no one in particular. If Beckham Jr. and Randle’s hamstrings sting Monday night, something Dan Graziano has implied is possible, Harris would represent 85% of all Giant wide receiver receptions activated for the game.

Just a guy, getting a bump in targets is one thing. These targets, though, are against the Eagles, who are allowing the third most receiver yardage on the year. “Number One” receivers, including Terrance Williams, an understudy “Number One,” standing in, have tallied the following five totals against Philly in 2015:

—9-for-141-and-2 — 4-for-84-and-1 — 10-for-109-and-1 — 7-for-55-and-1 — 5-for-107-and-1 —

So pretty.

MIKE WALLACE, $4,500 VS KC – And if those totals are pretty, the numbers allowed to receivers by the Chiefs defense are Brooklyn Decker. In fact, the numbers are so racy, the FCC doesn’t allow them to be broadcast in free articles, which basically makes RotoGrinders’ Incentives the Skin-a-Max of daily fantasy. By the way, Brooklyn Decker is a charter member of the “Name Could Double As The Name of A Borough-Specific Deli Sandwich” club. A club sandwich, I might point out, that would be stacked!

Just to cover all bases, if you have any lingering Charles Johnson preseason, season-long love, Wallace has three times the targets, over three times the receptions, five times the yards, and infinity times the touchdowns. Also, Charles Johnson only had two scores last season and topped 104 yards zero times, so, uh, why was he a thing? How did this become a Charles Johnson bashing session? Oh well. His hair makes him look like a Cabbage Patch Doll!

ERIC DECKER, $4,900 VS WAS – Brooklyn’s cousin Eric has missed a game and been on bye already. In the three games he’s played, he scored in every one and is averaging a shade under 5 grabs for exactly 60 yards. How his price has sagged $1,100 in that span is another pricing algorithm mystery. (A weekly half-hour show titled Unsolved Mysteries: Daily Fantasy Pricing would be appointment viewing for me. You?) With how banged up the Redskins secondary is, expect this to be a “Get Your Salary Right” game.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

KAMAR AIKEN, $4,300 AT SF – Steve Smith has a broken back. Multiple. Fractures. In. His Back. When he plays Sunday, after only one week on the shelf, it still won’t be as manly as Fred Jackson, a running back, not missing a single game with a high ankle sprain (the bad one). You use your ankles to run. Bully.

Even when Smiff does play, there’s still enough Fantasy Goodness (copyright: CSUram88) to go around.

DONTE MONCRIEF, $5,000 VS NE – On a fast track, in a game they will have to score, and most importantly, with Andrew Luck under center, don’t fret this play until the last whistle is blown because there is a huge potential for junk time, as the Colts play catch-up.

Digression of the Week

Those who live in glass houses, man. If you’re one of those snobby hot dog people, who turn up your nose at someone using ketchup, you better not also be someone putting creamer in your coffee, or drinking a pilsner, or listening to pop music, or asking the waitress for “Not much pink in the middle.” The fact you are getting snobby about the least sophisticated meat product currently in existence, is an indictment of YOUR taste, frankly. (Frank-ly!) Plus, ketchup is basically the America of condiments. ‘Merica!

TORREY SMITH, $4,200 VS BAL – #NarrativeStreet let me down last week, with Hankerson. Another letdown, and I’m calling a realtor.

LEONARD HANKERSON, $4,200 AT NO & WILLIE SNEAD, $3,300 V ATL – Speaking of Hankerson, I try not to recommend Thursday guys, because even though my editor asks me to get this article in on Wednesday, there’s always something that pushes it to Thursday. (This week, it was last week’s Millionaire Maker data.) Possibly the two best Grout wide receiver plays, and I’ll throw in minimum priced Tamme too, go on Thursday though, so exceptions! When it comes to the salary relief that you’re going to need on Sunday. Don’t be like me: Take care of it ahead of time!

TIGHT END

With how cheap tight end pricing is these days, having Owen Daniels goose-egg you is easily overcomeable. That said, woof. I’d like to offer a special shout-out to daveinchi1975, who popped into the comments last week, not to offer a Grout-For-A-Shout pick or even offer some constructive commentary, but rather just to tell me my soul was going to be crushed. Thanks Dave! I offer, now and forever going forward, crushed-soul Fantasy Grout tight end recommendations.

GANG GROUT

LARRY DONNELL, $2,800 AT PHI – As backlashes go, after a recommendation that leaves (goose) egg on your face, you go safe. In the realm of tight ends $3,500 or less, Donnell is as safe as it gets. At least three grabs and over 20 yards in all five games. Now with Eli Manning playing the role of Ol’ Mother Hubbard, Donnell becomes that half bag of stale tortilla chips, with no cheese or salsa, that starts looking pretty good!

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

RICHARD RODGERS, $3,100 VS SD – Nearly as safe as Donnell, but with a 2-for-15 as his nadir. On the other hand, with 5- and 6-reception weeks the last two, he’s trending in the right direction.