The Fantasy Grout, Week 4 - Smile!

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2015-10-08 16:51:28

Monday was the two-year anniversary of the day I lost a friend of mine in a car crash. He was 31.

I am not here to eulogize him. Enough time has passed, and I have long since come to grips with the fact that sometimes Life Sucks. There are countless people, myself included, who could have passed in his place, and the effect on the world of that swap would be a net positive. That is not how it works, unfortunately. Life Sucks.

I am also not here to tell you he was my best friend, or me, his. Over my college career, I don’t know if I have a single memory without him in it, so maybe he was then. After college, we went back to being what we always had been since we were young: Friends.

The thing that set him apart was the vast number of people who considered him the same as I did: Friend. In high school, in college, and afterward, everyone knew him and everyone liked him. He floated through every social circle without ever seeming out of place. He was a good student. He liked sports. He partied. He nerded out, from time to time. Somehow, he always put his family first and his friends first. He always made you smile. Like I said, net positive.

Monday night, as I assume I will do every September 28th, I thought a lot about him. Monday, by coincidence, was the night our home state Packers crushed the Chiefs. It was also a very profitable night for me, as I went in sitting on a robust -90% ROI and finished the game over 20%. Thank you Mr. Rodgers. Thank you Mr. Cobb. Thank you Mr. Charles. I was confident going in, as those were some of my favorite plays for the week, but -90% isn’t the sort of number that puts a smile on your face.

Yet I did have one on. Thinking of after-bar chess matches, Pizza and Smallville, Panama City Beach, and the like, always brings a smile to my face. It also got me thinking of the times he didn’t have a smile on his face. That is, never.

That is why I’m bringing him up here. Having a losing week sucks. Injuries. Unfortunate Swaps. Good Process-Bad Results. There are many reasons, but regardless, losing sucks. Those weeks, though, are just part of the process of daily fantasy. There is no variance vaccine, but when it comes to how you handle that variance, I think my buddy had it figured it out. In losing him, it has helped me figure it out as well. Even when Life Sucks presents itself in daily fantasy, remember, life is too short not to live it with a smile on your face.

LAST WEEK

Week 1 was The Week of the Tight End. Week 2, The Week of the Underdog. This past week was definitely The Week of the Running Back. From the Tippy Top down to the Bargain Basement, there were big scores to go around. Did four different running backs have three touchdowns? Why, yes. Even then, with 40 total running back TDs, it is still a wide receiver in the flex of the Highest Scoring lineup. Might as well put a yellow dashed line through the middle of the NFL, as it is clearly a passing league.

HIGHEST SCORING

Total Salary: $57,200.00
Total Points: 356.82

One thing you’ll notice is that the Highest Scoring lineup is way too pricy to be the Optimal lineup this week, with Devonta Freeman constituting the entirety of the Grout-priced portion of the max roster. That changes when you pivot down to a salary-constrained lineup, where three changes are necessary.

OPTIMAL

Total Salary: $48,300.00
Total Points: 348.02

Those three swaps cleared $8,900 off the books, at a cost of only 8.8 points, while adding two more Grout-priced players to the lineup. Subbing in Andy Dalton, who was suggested to you here last week, for Aaron Rodgers, took 2.6 points off the bottom line, while saving $2,300. A quick exchange of Chris Johnson for Jamaal Charles, subtracted only .2 points and $3,200, while adding another low-priced guy to the fold. The last swap was Larry Fitzgerald in and Julio Jones out, which nets six points less, but at a savings of $3,200.

Also, as a note, there was a such as gap between the #1 tight end, Greg Olsen (36.4), and the #2, Gary Barnidge (25.5), it basically made Olsen the runner up for Week 3 MVP, behind Devonta Freeman. There were seven total tight end scores, three guys over 100 yards, and what feels like three eons since week one’s tight end scoring barrage.

Speaking of TEs, if you spend any time in my comments, picking your own personal Grout for the week, you vie for this shout, but you fell short. That is, unless “you” is Jimmyhefner333. That one specific “you” discovered the power of dividing by the minimum, picked Gary Barnidge (10.2 PT/$K) for his Grout, and this is his Shout. Jimmyhefner333!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

QUARTERBACK

The list of signal callers priced over $6,500 is Rodgers, Manning, Wilson, Manning, Newton, Ryan and Palmer. Luck and Brees fit into that category as well, if they play. That still leaves at least 21 of 30 starting quarterbacks for our consideration. Next week is it. If we still have 20 QBs to choose from, we’ll have no choice but to reduce the allowable Grout price.

ANDY DALTON, $5,900 VS KC – Might as well make this a season-long article. Dalton has been either on Gang Grout or Left in the Bucket each of the season’s four weeks. In the first three, his scores of 18.86, 21.56, and 35.32 represent values of 3.092, 3.717, and 6.196 PT/$K respectively. In other words, good, great, and Optimal Lineup.

If you ignore last season, with a depleted weapons cache, this is not even that surprising. It is almost as if DraftKings has his Playoff Failure narrative, built into his price. Yes, an unprecedented #NarrativeStreet pricing. Now, not only does he have arguably the best complement of weapons in the NFL, but he draws a Kansas City secondary that is still giving up passing touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers, even as I type this. Also, the Chiefs’ 2014 third round pick and starting corner Phillip Gaines was just ruled out for the year with an ACL tear. Their losses should be Dalton’s … Gaines! (Listen, the other option was another Red pun. Is that what you want?)

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

TYROD TAYLOR, $5,800 VS NYG – If Dalton is the season-long QB of this article, Taylor is the backup, mentioned now for the third time in four weeks.

Week 1: 15.90 – $5,000 – 3.180 PT/$K
Week 2: 28.98 – $6,200 – 4.674 PT/$K
Week 3: 24.28 – $5,800 – 4.186 PT/$K

Now, can we just be done with “T Mobile” and “Tygod?” The name is “The Rod”. In the words of George Costanza, “It’s smart. It’s a smart name, and a smart crowd will appreciate it. And, I’m not gonna dumb it down for some bonehead mass audience!”

DEREK CARR, $5,300 AT CHI – There is a nonzero chance that the Bears will trade a defender mid-play.

RUNNING BACK

When you pull out likely inactives Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy, we are left with 12 backs over $5,500, making it now a four week declining trend. If Marshawn Lynch and/or DeMarco Murray sit this week out, well that messes it all up now doesn’t it!

KARLOS WILLIAMS, $3,400 VS NYG – He might be over a 100% owned in the Millionaire Maker. Likely the cheapest back to start this week and sporting Pro Football Focus’s third-best pure rush grade, there’s only one thing that could stop Williams from making it effectively an eight roster spot week: the “fade chalk people,” to which I replay…

”Don’t worry fellas. You’re right. We’re wrong. You definitely don’t want him in your lineup. #PointsAren’tPoints. Yeah, too popular. Gurley is definitely the better play. Yeah, leverage. Do it. You got this.”

I’m high on Williams. Frankly, the only thing I could see going wrong is Taylor pulling out a couple of zone reads in the red-zone, taking them in himself. When The Rod takes your scores, then you feel Kar-los.

MELVIN GORDON, $4,900 VS CLE – Cleveland-versus-the-Running-Back must be the Dealer’s Showing A Six of daily fantasy because I’m doubling down! What is worse than Cleveland allowing 5.2 YPC (12 for 62) to Bilal Powell in Week 1 you ask? Allowing 9.8 YPC (10 for 98) to Dexter McCluster! Then, there was that pesky Latavius Murray 26 for 139 explosion last week.

This is the matchup for the “running running back,” in San Diego. In fact, the Chargers are (1-2) with a blowout loss at Minnesota and a win versus Detroit that featured a 21-3 deficit and Rivers throwing for 400 yards. Now, seven point favorites at home, this is MGIII’s Waterloo. If Gordon doesn’t eat this week, he’s an anorexic.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

FRANK GORE, $4,700 VS JAC – What if he fills the Dion Lewis AND the LeGarrette Blount role?

JONATHAN STEWART, $4,700 AT TB – He hasn’t scored a TD this year, but this week, I expect him to … Buc … the trend.

ALFRED BLUE, $3,900 AT ATL – If Foster sits…
RYAN MATHEWS, $3,800 AT WAS – If Murray sits…
THOMAS RAWLS, $3,000 VS DET – If Lynch sits…

WIDE RECEIVER

MARVIN JONES, $3,800 VS KC – What do receivers talk about in the end zone after one of them scores? I hope it is not just a bunch of “Good Jobs” and “Way To Gos.”

I ask mainly because Jones has scored on 22.2% of his receptions this year, after scoring on 19.6% of his receptions in 2013. Now he gets a matchup with Kansas City’s secondary, who were halfway to allowing double-digit WR TDs last week. Also, I can’t help but feel sorry for Alex Smith, who struggles to throw touchdowns to wide receivers, yet never gets to face the Chiefs.

Oh, by the way, after Marvin scores this week, I bet Mr. Jones strikes up a conversation, with a black-hair, flamenco dancer.

QUINCY ENUNWA, $3,200 AT MIA (London) – I can’t imagine scouts are thrilled, trying to pronounce his last name, but his 6’2”, 225 pound frame moving at 4.45 speed doesn’t disappoint. He got you 3.333 PT/$K last week on 5-for-50, that is, if you figured out who is was. Now, with Eric Decker likely out, he draws a soft Dolphin secondary but with Brent Grimes likely shadowing Brandon Marshall. It’s like an obstacle course where you get over the beam and under the bar just perfectly.

Plus, playing the early game in London, there’s always the chance he takes the first play on a reverse for a score, and you have the opportunity to screen shot yourself as the current Millionaire Maker leader! (Or you can just start Tannehill and Landry, but still…)

MICHAEL CRABTREE, $4,600 AT CHI – Like, I wasn’t kidding about trading a defensive player, mid-play. The Bears are tanking in such an obvious way, that the 76ers are kind of shaking their head toward Chicago in disappointment.

Crabtree took a body blow last week, in the battle of Can’t Miss WR Prospect versus Former Can’t Miss WR Prospect, but Cooper couldn’t land a score. In fact, Cooper has yet to be within a quarter field of paydirt, meanwhile Mike Clay tells us that Crabtree has 10 targets inside the 25 and that only nine receivers have more total targets than him.

And, that matchup, man. I mean, the Bears are tanking so hard they might trade FOR Byron Maxwell.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

TY MONTGOMERY, $3,000 AT SF – The Packers run 3-wide out there on 99% of their plays. What happened on the one play they did not have three wide out there. Adams couldn’t find his helmet? Also, to get every players’ weekly snap percentages, you need Incentives. To get Incentives, you need to click here.

Digression of the Week

Why are we afraid of “100”? When discussing percentages, we will often site “99%”, ignoring the rounding rules we would normally use to bump, say 86+% up to 87%. Then, we will go the other way too, “Giving It 110%.” “Sir, 100% suffices. It is the most. Saying 110% just shows you’re lying, not that you’re trying.” As a nation, we are certainly not afraid of superlatives, as GOAT now means ‘pretty good’. Why can’t we all just keep it 100, and use it how it’s supposed to be used?

DONTE MONCRIEF, $5,000 VS JAC – Let’s give him a fine Fantasy Grout send off as his salary George Jeffersons in the coming weeks.

ALLEN HURNS, $3,900 AT IND – … with the other Allen getting VD this week.

TED GINN JR, $3,400 AT TB – The day Ginn becomes a volume play is the day … that comes after Saturday, this week. Averaging over 7 targets a game.

TIGHT END

ERIC EBRON, $3,500 AT SEA – A super, duper talent. When you adjust for how long it takes a tight end to start clicking in the NFL, this, Ebron’s second season, is roughly the equivalent of Kelvin Benjamin’s rookie breakout. Tied for sixth in the NFL with 20 TE targets, tied for seventh in TE yards, and tied for third with two TE TDs. I can’t say this now, as he hasn’t earned it yet, but some time this season, I’m going to say “’LeBron?’ More like ‘Ebron’.” Oh, I just said it? Well, now it’s out there.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

CHARLES CLAY, $3,300 VS NYG – If he would just go by “Chuck,” he would make his way to the highly exclusive Name Is Also A Complete Sentence Club. If only.