The GPP Scene: Year 2, Week 11

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-08-12 14:40:40

Welcome to another edition of The GPP Scene! I got back to the regular programming this week, which breaks down as follows, in case you are joining us for the first time: I will enter the $10 FanDuel Line Drive GPP five days a week with three different teams, and only those three teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitcher I like best that fits within my remaining cap. ¹
Team #2 – My favorite expensive pitcher of the day with a team of lesser hitters.
Team #3 – A total punt at pitcher surrounded by a team of better hitters.

¹ – This is my general GPP strategy on FD.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the most recent week of results!

TUESDAY, JULY 28TH

Team #1 – Toronto was the obvious stack of the day against rookie LHP Adam Morgan, and I paired them with Houston as an under-the-radar stack against C.J. Wilson. Ironically enough, Houston put up a ten spot while Toronto scored just two runs. Noah Syndergaard fit well as the pitcher on this team, and he tossed eight fantastic innings, racking up nine strikeouts and earning a victory. It was a high scoring day, and the Blue Jays’ performance kept this team just below the cash line. Given their high ownership percentages and the solid games from the Astros bats and Syndergaard, I’m still surprised this team didn’t cash. It was just 2.5 points short, though. The Yankees putting up 21 runs probably played a big part in that.

• FINISH: 44.75 PTS / 498 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Jorse Fernandez performed well as the ace of the day, though owners were probably hoping for a few more strikeouts. As for the bats, both Freddie Freeman and Devon Travis homered. That’s where the fund ended, as the rest of my hitters combined to go 0-for-20 with one solitary walk. That’s not going to be good enough.

• FINISH: 22.75 PTS / 1832 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Zack Godley got the call as the punt pitcher of the day, and he earned his second major league win with a solid start against Seattle. Of course, I failed to put in any Yankees bats as my big hitters, which really put my squads at a disadvantage. I doubled up on some Toronto bats here, and both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were quiet. It just wasn’t my day.

• FINISH: 17.50 PTS / 2060 OF 2298 FOR $0.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 29TH

Team #1 – Toronto and St. Louis were the mini-stacks of choice, as they got to face off against Jerome Williams and Anthony DeSclafani, respectively. Toronto scored eight runs (good), while St. Louis scored zero runs (bad). The pitcher performed well on this team, as Lance McCullers tallied 15 FanDuel points. Unfortunately, this was a high scoring day and the performance from the Cardinals was enough to keep this team below the cash line.

• FINISH: 38.75 PTS / 800 OF 2201 FOR $0.

Team #2 – The pitching options on Wednesday were dreadful, with no true ace toeing the rubber after Clayton Kershaw got scratched. John Lackey seemed like the safest option, so he got the call. He did not disappoint, throwing eight solid innings while racking up eight strikeouts and allowing just one run. In what was a common theme for me this week, however, he didn’t get any run support and could not earn a victory. Outside of Troy Tulowitzki, none of the bats on this team exceeded 1.5 fantasy points (Tulowitzki had 13.5 by himself but was 47% owned). In short, there wasn’t much to get excited about with the cheap bats on this day as Joc Pederson continued his slide and Matt Wieters, Freddie Freeman, and company were quiet.

• FINISH: 28.75 PTS / 1499 OF 2201 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Since Clayton Kershaw got scratched early in the day, there was plenty of time for fantasy players to pivot to Mike Bolsinger as a cheap pitching option. 10.4% of my closest friends agreed, but Bolsinger was disappointing with a meager 6 fantasy point performance against the A’s. As for the big bats, Bryce Harper was great with a two home-run performance and 15.75 fantasy points. Everyone else…. was not so great. Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and the rest of the Yankees struggled against Texas a night after scoring 21 runs, and the hole from Bolsinger was too big to overcome.

• FINISH: 28.50 PTS / 1512 OF 2201 FOR $0.

FRIDAY, JULY 31ST

Team #1 – The stacks for today were Pittsburgh (against Michael Lorenzen) and Arizona (against Scott Feldman) with Carlos Rodon as a boom-or-bust pitching option against the Yankees. Rodon was hammered for eight runs in three innings, giving him a negative FanDuel score and sinking this team before it got going. Four of the bats in my stacks scored 5+ points, so the poor performance from Rodon was what sunk this squad. The bats scored 37.5 points and I still finished in the bottom half. It’s a reminder that you still have to hit your pitching spot correctly if you want to do well in DFS MLB.

• FINISH: 36.50 PTS / 1536 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #2 – It was a tough day on the pitching front. Clayton Kershaw got scratched about 45 minutes before roster lock and I didn’t catch it until it was five minutes too late. Zero points from a $13,300 salary pitcher? Let’s move along.

• FINISH: 9.75 PTS / 2291 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #3 – With all the bad on this day, there was some good. I chose Kendall Graveman as a punt pitcher facing the Indians, and he came through with 6 2/3 shutout innings, though he did not earn a victory. Still, that was good for a solid 12.66 FanDuel points. The bats were solid as well, led by 10.75 points from Nelson Cruz, 8.5 from Matt Carpenter, and 7.25 from J.D. Martinez. In total, my squad cracked six home runs and it was nice to see some cash come back on what was otherwise a missed opportunity of a day.

• FINISH: 53.16 PTS / 420 OF 2298 FOR $25.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 1ST

This was a high-scoring, early-only short slate.

Team #1 – The stack choices on this short slate were Kansas City and Toronto. They were playing against each other at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre in Toronto, with Mark Buehrle and a scuffling Yordano Ventura on the mound. The stacks went well, as this game played to a 7-6 finish. I also had both Ben Zobrist and Jose Bautista on this team, and both went deep twice. The unfortunate news is that Andrew Heaney was the pitcher I had to fit in to make this stack work, and he was heavily out-dueled by a highly owned Clayton Kershaw. In the end, the 12.67 point difference between Kershaw and Heaney (the two highest owned pitchers on the slate) was enough to keep this team short of the money line despite a score above 50 points.

• FINISH: 50.08 PTS / 216 OF 558 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Kershaw was the obvious ace choice, but his 19 points didn’t gain this team much on the field since Kershaw was 40% owned. I managed to put Zobrist on this team, too, but I failed to include any of the big Toronto bats as they did not fit with Kershaw. I was sure that this team would cash with Kershaw, Zobrist, and a near double-figure performance from Xander Bogaerts, but no slip-ups were allowed on such a high-scoring slate. A 0.25 performance from Salvador Perez and a 1 point performance from Alex Rios were too much to overcome. On any full slate, a person would be very disappointed to not cash with 51.25 fantasy points, but those are the risks you take by playing a short slate of games.

• FINISH: 51.25 PTS / 193 OF 558 FOR $0.

Team #3 – It was tough to pick a cheap pitcher, as there were only four options outside of Kershaw and Heaney. I couldn’t go for Buehrle or Ventura as I was stacking against them with Team #1. I couldn’t go with Matt Moore as he has been nothing short of terrible. That left Joe Kelly via process of elimination. He did earn a win along with 10 fantasy points, but I was on the wrong bats here. There was no reason to leave Jose Bautista off a team with a punt pitcher, but I did that in order to fit both Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson. This team still put up a decent score of 44, but that wasn’t even close to being good enough on this slate of games.

• FINISH: 44.00 PTS / 335 OF 558 FOR $0.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 2ND

Team #1 – To cap off the week, I stacked Seattle (against Mike Pelfrey) and Milwaukee (against Clayton Richard). The good news is that these teams both had enough cheap bats to where I could fit in Prince Fielder at first base, making this a 4-3-1 stack, along with Jose Fernandez at pitcher with a home date against the Padres on tap. Fernandez held up his end of the bargain, but the stacks did not perform well. Seattle didn’t score a single run until the 9th inning, finishing with four as the game went into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Brewers were held to one total run on the day. That’s simply not good enough to cash in a GPP.

• FINISH: 20.25 PTS / 581 OF 804 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Since I had Jose Fernandez at pitcher on the stack team, I used Noah Syndergaard as my ace for Team #2. I liked the home matchup against a struggling Washington team, and 21.6% of my closest friends agreed. The young hurler affectionately nicknamed “Thor” had a great outing, tossing eight sterling innings on his way to a victory and a sweep for the Mets. Lucas Duda was my first baseman on this squad, and he hit a home run as well. Their performances were just enough for this team to bring the “Sunday night hammer” to hurdle into a cashing position. The rest of the team was mediocre, with Miguel Sano, Hunter Pence, and Jhonny Peralta combining to go 0-for-12, so the late surge was an unexpected surprise.

• FINISH: 33.75 PTS / 134 OF 804 FOR $25.

Team #3 – For purposes of this article, I will almost always take a shot on any pitcher that is starting and priced at the FanDuel minimum of $3,000. Enter Keyvius Sampson making his major league debut against the Pirates. He actually didn’t pitch that poorly, as he allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six. Eight points for $3,000? I suppose I’ll take it most of the time. The problem here was that several big bats let me down. Mike Trout and Todd Frazier combined to go 0-for-9. Other bats were serviceable but not great, and you need great when you take a $3,000 pitcher. Jacoby Ellsbury was the only one to hit a home run. This was a low scoring day — and a low score from Syndergaard would have kept this team in the money — but it just fell below the cash line when the Mets’ pitcher picked up a win. In any event, that helped me cash with Team #2, and there was pretty much no way I could cash with both.

• FINISH: 29.50 PTS / 248 OF 804 FOR $0.

FINAL RESULTS: THROUGH 11 WEEKS

MY ANALYSIS

Another week, another ho-hum list of results. Two minimum cashes at least limited the damage, but that’s far from exciting news. There were days where I hit on the pitchers but missed on the bats (Tuesday and Wednesday), while the rest of the week I hit on the bats but couldn’t buy a win from a pitcher. Last year, I hit my big cash in August to make the whole article series worth it. I sure hope that comes again this time around.

In addition, this whole series can hopefully go to show that playing strictly GPP’s is frustrating at times. My overall ROI in this thing is not pretty. Granted, I am not actually using Team #2 or Team #3 here as a “true” GPP strategy outside of this exercise. However, it can still be used to show that no matter how long one has been playing DFS, you’re still going to go through very tough times. Cash game play is far less volatile.

It’s also a nice reminder as we head into football season. There are HUGE GPP’s lined up for the first week of NFL, and these tournaments are going to be amazing marketing tools for the sites. They are also extremely top-heavy, so make sure to supplement your tournament play with some games where you have a steadier, more predictable return on your investment.

As always, thanks for reading!