Week 13, In Which We Pace And Mumble
This has become an annual tradition – right around this time of the year: The “Pace and Mumble” edition of my home page NFL article.
The premise is simple:
As a mostly single-entry DFSer, I spend a lot of time digging into a slate in an effort to narrow down the list of available players to the sharpest possible point. Part of my process in this area entails what I term “Immersion”: put simply, this means spending a large amount of time each week scrolling through available players, messing around with various roster construction approaches, coming across new items I want to research or dig more deeply into, and basically just doing everything I can to uncover clues that will lead me to an optimal team. Part of this process also, generally, includes pacing around and mumbling to myself – talking through the available options on the slate, and working through the ways in which these options potentially fit together.
Sometimes (you know – roughly once a year…around this point in the season), it’s nice to “pace and mumble” on paper. So let’s do exactly that.
Let’s pace and mumble together…
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It’s a truly weird week. Unlike last week, in which only two games on the main slate had an Over/Under above 47, there are six such games this week. This should, theoretically, lead to lots of strong DFS plays. But things are a bit weird once we start actually digging into the available players from these games.
Starting from the top down:
Detroit and New Orleans is obviously a strong spot to target, but we need to keep in mind that the Lions limit opponent plays as well as any team in the NFL. While the Saints still project to run around 65 to 66 plays (a couple plays above the league average), this is several plays below the Saints’ average on the season. That’s a weak argument against the Saints, sure; it’s the Saints at home, after all, and they should be heavily considered. But we also have the fact that the Saints spread the ball around so much, it’s difficult to feel supremely confident that we are targeting the right guys. The Saints’ entire team has only five double-digit target games on the year – in spite of having the second most pass attempts in the NFL.
Washington at Arizona is the next highest total (49.5), but it’s tough to get excited about old man Carson Palmer when he is absolutely incapable of throwing outside the numbers, and while David Johnson is clearly one of the top raw-points plays on the weekend, the Redskins rank third in DVOA defending running backs out of the backfield. Considering Bruce Arians is extraordinarily hard-headed in his commitment to the pass, DJ won’t be set up to take advantage of this tremendous “on the ground” matchup in the way he should, and he will have a tougher time through the air than most are expecting. Still a great play? Absolutely! But worth his price tag? That’s a tougher call. As for the Redskins: their Vegas-implied total seems lofty against a team that has allowed only nine passing touchdowns all season (first in the NFL), while allowing only 195 passing yards per game (second best in the NFL).
The game in Atlanta (Chiefs at Falcons) has an Over/Under of 49.0, but the Chiefs have had three games this year against high-powered offenses that have a bad run defense on the other side. In two of those games, the Chiefs have tried to play “Cowboys ball” by pounding on the ground and keeping the opponent off the field. The matchup is great for the Falcons…but will they have the ball as much as most are expecting?
Right below this game, we have Buffalo at Oakland – in a game that opened with an Over/Under of 50.0, but has dropped to 48.5. Still, this is the spot in which I see the least to be concerned about, as we know how things will shape up. LeSean McCoy sees only about 20 touches per game (he has topped 21 touches only twice all season), but the matchup in this spot is tremendous, with the Bills ranking second in run offense DVOA and the Raiders ranking 27th in run defense DVOA. On the other side, Derek Carr and company should be able to rack up yards and points against a beat-up and underperforming Bills pass defense.
The Over/Under in the Giants at Steelers game sits at 48.0. This game also opened at 50.0, so the drop is a bit concerning, but the drop also makes sense given that the Giants’ offense has been pretty poor this year (while the Steelers’ defense continues to improve), and the Giants’ defense ranks in the top eight in run DVOA, pass DVOA, yards allowed per carry, and yards allowed per pass attempt. New York has allowed only 10 passing touchdowns all year (tied with the Seahawks and the Broncos for the second best mark in the NFL). Still, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 13 of his last 14 home games against non-division opponents (dating back to late 2013), and he has topped 300 yards in 12 of his last 14 such games. This is a sneaky-good spot for the classic, tourney-winning three-man Steelers stack (Ben/Bell/Brown).
Finally, for high-projected games, we have Tampa at San Diego…but while Tampa is sure to be labeled by most as being in a “letdown spot,” coming off two huge wins against playoff-bound teams, I believe Dirk Koetter has this team focused. If we take away the hypothesis that the Bucs will come out flat, we have an improving defense (10th in pass defense DVOA, in spite of their breakdowns for a few weeks there) on one side, and we have a strong defense on the other (the Chargers rank 13th in run defense DVOA and ninth in pass defense DVOA).
I should point out that I like aspects of all these games. I’m just saying that it’s a weird week, in that there are clear things to dislike in each of the spots Vegas points us toward.
It seems that the public consensus (whether the public realizes it or not) is the same, as our RotoGrinders Premium Ownership Projections currently have only three players on DraftKings projected for ownership over 20%, with only five players on FanDuel projected for ownership over 20%. That’s the great news this week: the chalk will be less heavy than it has been in most weeks this season…which means we can succeed by worrying a lot more about the players each of us considers to be the “top plays,” as opposed to worrying too heavily about game theory. Because ownership will be somewhat spread out this week, identifying the top plays and sticking with them will make a massive difference.
Of course, the quarterback position is seemingly the easiest spot in which to identify the “top play,” as Drew Brees at home is always a top play. People seem to forget this; last week, after all, Brees had minimal ownership, as people worried too much about the matchup. That will not be the case this week…
…but then, don’t we always talk about how Roethlisberger at home is a lock for a big game? If we should have been on Brees more heavily last week against the Rams, we should be on Big Ben more heavily this week, even against the Giants.
There is plenty to like away from these guys, too. Matthew Stafford has gone eight straight games without topping 280 yards…but he has played eight straight games against pass defenses that rank 18th or better in DVOA. His upside is not as high as some of these other guys, with the short passing game of the Lions, but any quarterback in the Superdome is in play this season. Matt Ryan only projects for around 33 to 35 passes even if the Chiefs do not execute a ball control approach, but Ryan is always in play this year – especially at home, in a game in which Julio Jones should mostly be able to enjoy man coverage. Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball as much as any other quarterback, and he leads the NFL in red zone passes. He’s another guy in a tough matchup whom we should nevertheless strongly consider. And then you have the West Coast games: Derek Carr against Buffalo, Philip Rivers against Tampa, and Russell Wilson against the Panthers. I believe I would rank those guys in that order, but all are worthy of consideration. And all of that fails to mention Colin Kaepernick against Matt Barkley; Kaep is apparently a weekly Top 12 QB, while Barkley projects for a good 40 pass attempts once again.
Sheesh!
I’ll likely stick to the elite arms myself this week. Brees, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers are the guys I am most drawn toward. I don’t think we need to worry as much about ownership this week as we need to worry about “who we think is the best play” – but any of these guys (as well as, possibly, some of the other guys explored above) could certainly top that list.
Meanwhile, at running back, we have the obvious guys – absolutely. David Johnson is facing the 32nd-ranked DVOA run defense; Le’Veon Bell is always in play with his pass game involvement; and LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon both have strong matchups (McCoy has the edge in talent and explosiveness, while Melvin has the edge in usage – including leading the league in carries inside the five-yard-line and inside the 10-yard-line). But what about the old “roster high-usage running backs at a discount, and pay up for targets at wide receiver” approach? Doug Martin has as much usage the last couple weeks as any running back in the NFL. Tim Hightower is #notgood, but he’s seeing more work than Mark Ingram – and if Ingram misses this week, Hightower should soak up all the work. Jeremy Hill is still priced too cheaply, and he saw a career-high six targets last week. Latavius Murray has been far more reliably used lately than most seem to realize, and he has a strong matchup this week. Carlos Hyde always goes overlooked, and he should be able to take advantage of the injuries and suspensions that have destroyed the Bears’ defense. The list goes on and on.
What to do?
I don’t know quite yet, but it seems this is a strong week to break away from the pack and roster high-usage running backs others will not be on. Moreover, this is probably a strong week to save a bit of money at running back. We know ownership will flow toward DJ and Bell and probably even Shady. But can’t we get a good 70% of the production those guys will get, for less than 70% of the price?
With that said, I love DJ, Bell, and probably even Shady this week. If I can find savings at wide receiver that I love, I may join the crowd in loading up on those higher-priced running backs.
And hey, maybe there is some love to hand out to lower-priced receivers. Shouldn’t Malcolm Mitchell see the field a bit more this week with Rob Gronkowski out and the Patriots going to more three-wide sets as a result? Shouldn’t Marquess Wilson see his snaps bump up a bit more, and see a good eight or more targets again? Shouldn’t Dontrelle Inman be strongly considered with Tyrell Williams banged up and Travis Benjamin doing little lately and the Bucs being weakest over the middle? Shouldn’t Will Fuller be strongly considered in tournaments as a guy who just might pop off for a big game against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA defending both the left and right sides of the field?
At the same time, however, shouldn’t we have interest in paying up for Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree? Shouldn’t we love that Jordy Nelson is the most heavily-used receiver in the NFL in the red zone, and that Davante Adams is not far behind him? Shouldn’t we love that Brandin Cooks is in a classic “squeaky wheel” spot, and that Michael Thomas should have no trouble destroying the Lions’ corners? And of course, Julio Jones will have man coverage much of the Falcons’ game, Antonio Brown will be heavily targeted at home, Mike Evans may be low-owned in a “tough spot” against San Diego in spite of already having done work this year against Patrick Peterson, Desmond Trufant, and Richard Sherman, and Odell Beckham will surely be moved around the formation all week in Pittsburgh in an effort to let him match Brown on the other side and keep this game close.
There are plenty of wide receivers this week who have big upside. There are also plenty of wide receivers who will go low-owned this week with big upside. #justsaying
The tight end position is its usual mess, with a bunch of guys who shape up as high-upside plays…with low floors. Jimmy Graham is probably the guy on this slate with the highest projected output (challenged only by maybe Travis Kelce), but his usage has dipped over the last month to a slightly concerning extent. Greg Olsen and Tyler Eifert each have enormous upside and usage-potential, but Eifert is taking on Philadelphia and Olsen is taking on Seattle; Philly ranks third in DVOA against the position, while Seattle is sure to focus on Olsen.
Zach Ertz is a strong yardage play, but he sees hardly any usage near the goal line.
Antonio Gates sees tons of usage near the goal line, but he has a low yardage ceiling.
Eric Ebron is in a great spot against New Orleans, though we do have to be worried about his one-target, zero-catch game last week. And then we have guys like Vance McDonald (solid usage and solid matchup, but inconsistent hands and inconsistent quarterback accuracy) and Jermaine Gresham (tremendous matchup and solid usage lately, but on an offense that does not emphasize the tight end at all).
My thoughts here: if not working to fit in one of the high-upside guys (Graham, Olsen, Kelce, Ebron, etc.), simply look for the most targets at the cheapest price, and use these savings to load up elsewhere.
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This is a great week to go tourney-heavy. This is also a great week, if you are a limited-entry player, to deviate from this approach, and to throw in a few extra teams that mix and match things a bit. If, for example, you typically play only one lineup, in every tourney up to the $50 buy-in level, consider shaking up your approach this week – throwing a few more teams into lower-dollar buy-ins instead. If you typically go 80/20 in favor of cash games, consider skewing a bit more heavily toward tourneys. And if you do play cash games, recognize that ownership is likely to be spread out there as well; take what you feel are the most obvious plays, without worrying too much about what others will be doing themselves.
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Target the games with the high Over/Unders this week, but also be discerning on which individual plays actually offer the highest safety/upside combo. Recognize, also, that a high Over/Under does not necessarily mean both teams should be heavily targeted. For example: the “Lions at Saints” game has, by far, the highest Over/Under on the weekend…but nine teams on the main slate have a higher Vegas-implied total than the Lions. That’s not to say we should dislike the Lions; but it is to say we should recognize that there are other spots we should be looking toward as well. Along these same lines, recognize that the Patriots have the second highest Vegas-implied total, the Packers have the fifth highest Vegas-implied total, and the Seahawks have the sixth highest Vegas-implied total – in spite of all three teams being in games with lower Over/Unders.
Recognize this week that there is a lot to like in various spots – and that there is very little to truly, unequivocally love.
Realize that this is the sort of week in which those who are willing to think for themselves are those who will be likeliest to post a big weekend, as the chalk (such as it is) is not necessarily significantly more attractive than a lot of the less-popular plays.
Realize that this can be your biggest weekend of the season.
Buckle down. Outwork your competition. Immerse yourself in this slate. Then crush.
I’ll do the same – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards when it’s all said and done.