Week 16, In Which We Holiday
Happy Holidays!
Yes, that’s an exclamation point. Yes, I love the Holiday season. I may be the only one among us who does (if I’m wrong, let me know below…), but this is truly my favorite time of year.
My wife and I are spending Christmas with my side of the family this year – in a 300-year-old colonial house in New Hampshire (hardwood floors, six fireplaces, and snow all around us). Because I have Christmas on my mind (sort of a whipped cream on top of the chocolate cheesecake called “Week 16”), I have decided to make today’s article Christmas-themed. And what better way to do that than by allowing my family to contribute to this article.
The Roster of Helpers
ABBYtoWIN
Scouting Report:
Wife of JMToWin. Photographer. All-around cool gal. Football knowledge? She grew up in Oklahoma, in a family of big OU fans, and now she’s a big Patriots fan as well, due to being married to me. What being a “big fan” entails is hanging out and reading on the couch while the games are on, and knowing the names of the most important players on the team. DFS experience? She’s been to Toronto, Nashville, the Bahamas, and New York City with me for live finals and DFS events. She also helped me write an MLB article this last summer, in which I showed her pictures of players, and she recommended to readers whether they should use them or not, based on whether or not those players looked nice.
MAMMAtoWIN
Scouting Report:
Mother of JMToWin. Holiday organizer extraordinaire. Football knowledge? She grew up in Southern California and, as far as I know, did not follow football as a child. She became a Patriots fan to support me and my dad, and could certainly tell you who Tom Brady is, and could probably tell you who Bill Belichick and Rob Gronkowski are as well. Although my dad wears a Dont’a Hightower jersey while watching Patriots games, I’m not 100% certain she could tell you who Hightower is. DFS experience? She has watched my Friday night Round Table a few times, primarily because this allows her to see me, when I live on the other side of the country. She has also read a few of my articles, but she stops “once the football stuff starts.” She’s probably reading this one at the same time as you. Hi, Mom.
PAPPAtoWIN
Scouting Report:
Father of JMToWin. Makes the best homemade pizza in the world. Football knowledge? He grew up in Louisiana, but never liked the Saints, because they were so God-awful for so stinking long. He spent a couple decades as a Bears fan, and moved to New England in 1985. For non-NFL-historians: the Bears and Patriots played in the Super Bowl following the ’85 season. My dad committed to switching his core allegiance to the Patriots when he moved to Massachusetts…but said when he moved that he would wait until the ’85 season was over. Good move. DFS experience? He regularly asks me how DFS is going, but he doesn’t play himself. If he did, he would probably roster primarily Patriots – which wouldn’t be such a bad idea…especially this week.
STEPHANIEtoWIN
Scouting Report:
Older sister of JMToWin. Makes all the desserts for the family. Football knowledge? She gets into arguments with fans of other teams far more often than I do. As a resident of the Pacific Northwest, this presented her with some difficulties a couple years ago when the Patriots were preparing to play the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, and Seahawks fans were going on and on about the Patriots deflating footballs. She texted me to get the rundown on what she should say to these fans in response, so she could win the arguments she got into. DFS experience? I’m not entirely certain she knows what the initials “DFS” stand for – though I could be wrong on that (she and Abby are close, and I’m sure Abby says “DFS” from time to time). Her husband (who will arrive in town today) has played DFS two or three times as well, but she has no hands-on experience herself.
LAURENtoWIN
Scouting Report:
Younger sister of JMToWin. She was my tackling dummy when we were kids. She still wakes up at 4 A.M. with me on Christmas morning. Football knowledge? I’m pretty sure she knows who Tom Brady is. That’s about it. She would not be able to tell you whether or not the Patriots are any good this year – and she is perfectly happy with that. DFS experience? When she married her husband, she was thrilled that he wasn’t into sports. Then he began playing DFS, and that changed. She blames me.
JAREDtoWIN
Scouting Report:
Husband of LAURENtoWIN. He’s the most chill person you’ll ever meet – though he does not like losing at family games. Football knowledge? Jared began following football a few years ago through season-long fantasy, then he became a three-sport DFS player over the last couple years and now watches football each Sunday (sorry, Lauren). He refuses to be a Patriots fan; he likes the Broncos, and would probably tell you Peyton Manning was better than Tom Brady. DFS experience? He’s cashed in NBA tourneys the last three days. I know that because we’ve been here three days, and he’s played each day. He plays MLB, NBA, and NFL. He probably likes Notorious more than he likes me.
The Help: 5 Holiday Tips
I asked each of my Week 16 Article Helpers to provide me with five Holiday tips. These tips are included below.
Below that, you’ll find five tips from me – at each offensive position for the Week 16 DFS slate.
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Abby’s Holiday tips:
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1. If someone gets a treat for someone that’s just, like, a bag of unshelled pecans, and the person receiving the treat looks sad about it, just add chocolate. Everything will be fine.*
2. You can never watch Buddy the Elf too many times.
3. The best way to spread Christmas cheer is singing loud for all to hear.
4. Trick people into thinking you’re good at baking by only using recipes that require the microwave.
5. Believe in snow.
*My Mom bought me some unshelled pecans, thinking that was something I would be excited about. I don’t like pecans. Apparently, my reaction was unsatisfactory. Abby saved the day by melting chocolate (see Tip 4) and dipping the pecans into the chocolate, then letting the chocolate harden. Day: saved.
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Mamma’s Holiday tips:
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1. Let everyone take a turn cooking in the kitchen, so Mom stays nice.
2. When you’re unwrapping presents, have trash bags ready to put trash in immediately.
3. People will be eating a lot of sugar, so be kind to them.
4. Contrary to popular belief, gift boxes will last at least a decade for reuse.
5. Save time: you don’t have to take the price tags off your gifts.*
*I’m unclear as to why this is…
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Pappa’s Holiday tips:
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1. Hire someone to wrap your presents for you.
2. Women love that you attempted to wrap the present for them.
3. If you procrastinated, give her a picture of what you’re going to buy her.
4. If you’re going to buy yourself a car for Christmas, make sure you buy her something more than socks.
5. Uber after egg nog.
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Stephanie’s Holiday tips:
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1. Make sure you drink a lot of water during the Holidays.
2. Knock on that bathroom door twice. You can never knock enough times.
3. Christmas is a time of year for peace, not truth. Keep your opinions to yourself.
4. Every time you go to the tree to grab a present for someone else, hide one of yours in the back so you can be the last person to open a present.
5. Eat and drink like January 1st is one week away. You only have seven days to cram in all the things you’ll soon be swearing off.
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Lauren and Jared’s Holiday tips:
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1. (Jared:) If you get socks for Christmas, it could be worse. You could get Mad Libs instead.
2. (Jared:) If someone doesn’t like the gift you got them, just tell them they were on the naughty list.
3. (Lauren:) Pack 90% pajamas. Pack 10% normal clothes.
4. (Lauren:) If you watch Santa Clause 2 this Holiday season, be sure to watch the part where “Tim Allen” falls down the stairs – in slow motion.
5. (Lauren:) Don’t let your brother recline on someone else’s chair, because who’s going to pay for the repairs?*
*Oops.
JMToWin’s Week 16 tips
QUARTERBACK
1. Don’t overlook Blake Bortles: I know, I know, no one really wants to roster Blake Bortles. He’s been awful all season, and he only really puts up points in great matchups, in the fourth quarter. But…look at that! This is a great matchup, against a defense that has faced the third-most pass attempts in the NFL, and has allowed the third-most passing yards. The Jags prefer to attack through the air, and “through the air” is always the preferred approach against Tennessee, making this a spot with a high point-per-dollar expectation for Bortles, and with the same ceiling as the top quarterbacks on the slate (if you don’t believe me on that last statement, check out what Bortles did the last time these teams faced).
2. Realize that Tom Brady will pass a ton: The Patriots design their weekly game plan on an opponent-specific basis, and their opponent this week just happens to have the number three run defense DVOA…and the number 32 pass defense DVOA. Last time these teams faced, Brady threw a season-high 50 times, and a similar output is a reasonable expectation this week. While there is slight concern the Pats will take their foot off the gas with a big lead in the second half, I expect the Pats to remain fairly aggressive, fairly deep into the game, as they only have two more tuneups before the two-week layoff the precedes the divisional round of the playoffs.
3. Brees at the Superdome is still Brees at the Superdome: Honestly, I’m wording this tip the way I am wording it as a reminder to me, not to you. I say that because I’m guessing very few of you are as concerned about this matchup against the Bucs as I am. While the Bucs struggled early in the season and allowed a large chunk of splash plays, they have climbed all the way to seventh in opponent-adjusted pass defense DVOA (as in: they rate out as the seventh-best pass defense in the NFL). The Bucs have also changed up their offensive philosophy lately, going more run-heavy and implementing a keepaway approach. Drew Brees still projects as the highest-owned quarterback on the weekend, as a lot of people are simply looking at this and saying, “Brees had a huge game last week, and now he’s at the Superdome.” But if the matchup is concerning you (as it’s concerning me), this is a reminder that Brees can smash in any matchup when he is playing at home.
4. Want to get Lucky? Take a Carr to Oakland: That’s a terrible attempt at cleverness. But the point remains: the game in Oakland is one of the best spots to target for offense this week, and that includes both quarterbacks. The finger injury Derek Carr is dealing with (and the shotgun offense the Raiders are having to run as a result) has hurt Carr’s effectiveness the last couple weeks, but this is a clear “get right” spot for him, and Andrew Luck should have no problem carving up the Raiders – especially as the Raiders funnel action toward the middle of the field…where T.Y. Hilton does his damage.
5. Cleveland can’t defend quarterbacks: The Browns have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Only three quarterbacks have failed to notch double-digit scores against them. They rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt. This is a great spot for Philip Rivers.
RUNNING BACK
1. You can still “Jam In” DJ: If you are a regular viewer of our Friday night Round Table on RotoGrinders, you will hear Adam Levitan talking about being on “team JamEmIn” – in reference to finding a way to jam in David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell every week. This week, Bell is not playing on the main slate, which theoretically makes it easier to jam in DJ. With a matchup on tap against the Seahawks, however, many may be less interested than normal in making sure they have DJ on their roster. While I am with you (DJ is not a “must play” this week, in my opinion), we do need to realize that this man is a massive percentage of the Cardinals’ offense. While the Saints regularly double-teamed DJ last week – basically treating him as the Cardinals’ best wide receiver – the Seahawks play a straight-up style of defense and do not adjust for opponent. This will enable to DJ to receive his normal usage, and while he’ll have a harder time hitting his ceiling than he normally would, his ceiling remains intact…and he still probably carries the highest floor on the slate.
2. Bilal Powell is a wide receiver and a running back: We talk a lot about David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell justifying their salary because you basically get to roster a wide receiver and a running back all in one. Well, we can add a new guy to that list for as long as Matt Forte is banged up: Bilal Powell. Powell has 17 targets over the last two weeks (and has caught 16 of them), and although the Patriots are absolutely elite at stopping the run (fourth in DVOA against the run, with the second-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs in the NFL this year), they are mediocre at slowing down pass-catching backs. With the Jets likely to be trailing for much of this game, this is a great spot to grab a monster point-per-dollar floor from Powell’s pass game usage – even in half-PPR scoring.
3. Frank Gore has a high floor: Don’t believe me? How about this: On DraftKings, Gore has only three games all season with single-digit fantasy points. On FanDuel, he has only four such games. That means 10 (FD) to 11 (DK) games this year with double-digit points, which is better than Devonta Freeman, and is better than Spencer Ware, and is better than several other guys who most people think of rostering before they think of Gore. Gore will rarely post a tourney-winning score…but he will also rarely hurt your team (more often than not, he’s a tremendous point-per-dollar play), and this week’s game against Oakland is another great spot for him.
4. Ty Montgomery is still underpriced: I remember in 2014, during the epic rookie season of Odell Beckham, when OBJ’s price started climbing into the $7k range on both FanDuel and DraftKings…and his ownership dropped, as people weren’t really sure if he was truly worth that price tag, or if they were just chasing points. If we had more than just two weeks remaining in the 2016 season (and if Montgomery becomes a true 20-touch-per-game running back), I believe the same thing would happen here. Not to say Montgomery is “as good at running back” as OBJ is at wide receiver, but this is a talented player, and he is still underpriced compared to where he should be. Against a Minnesota defense that is beatable on the ground and is extremely tough through the air, this is a great spot to fire up Montgomery once again.
5. Cleveland can’t defend running backs: The Browns are barely behind the 49ers in yards allowed per carry, and they’re not far behind the 49ers in rushing touchdowns allowed. They rank 32nd in run defense DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per carry. This is a great spot for a bounce-back effort from Kenneth Farrow – at what should be lower ownership than he saw last week.
WIDE RECEIVER
1. The Bears’ passing attack matters: First off, Jordan Howard matters too. He stands alongside the five running backs mentioned above as part of my “favorite running back plays of the weekend” list. But the Redskins are a top-eight offense in pass offense DVOA, run offense DVOA, yards per pass attempt, and yards per rush attempt. “Which means what?” Which means that I expect the Redskins to move the ball and put up points this week against the Bears…and which means the Bears will not be able to simply control this game on the ground. Matt Barkley should have to fire off a good 30 or more pass attempts once more, and most of these should go to Cameron Meredith as the big body in the slot, and to Alshon Jeffery in a tough (but still winnable) matchup against Josh Norman.
2. The Jaguars’ passing attack matters: I already talked above about Blake Bortles. But who can you pair him with if you want to get frisky and stack? Allen Robinson or Marqise Lee, of course! As we have seen this season, the floor on these guys is low. But the ceiling on each guy remains fairly high – especially in a point-per-dollar sense with each guy dropping in price, and especially given the matchup these guys have against a burnable Tennessee secondary that will, furthermore, be missing their best cornerback this week in Jason McCourty.
3. The Texans’ passing attack matters: But you know this already, don’t you? It is worth noting that the Bengals have faced the second-fewest wide receiver targets in the NFL this year…while facing the third-most running back targets and the second-most tight end targets. Generally speaking, quarterbacks read the field against Cincinnati, see little to like at wide receiver, and dump the ball off to running backs or tight ends. This is the case that can be made for fading DeAndre Hopkins this week at high ownership. But the case for rostering him goes like this: He’s priced about $3k lower than he would have been priced in this matchup last year…and there is a good chance Tom Savage won’t care if Hopkins is covered; there is a good chance he won’t worry about “reading the field and going through progressions” at all, and will instead just chuck the ball up to Nuk over and over again.
4. Michael Thomas matters: Again, I’m probably not telling you anything you don’t know. But because Thomas may be my favorite price-considered wide receiver play on the weekend (which, as always, is subject to change by the time games kick off – but is certainly the case for me as I write this), I wanted to make sure I brought him up. The rundown here is simple: he’s the number one option in this powerful offense, and even though the Saints spread the ball around, Thomas enters each week with the best chance among Saints wide receivers of posting a big game.
5. Cleveland can’t defend wide receivers: Not only do the Browns rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, but they also rate out at 31st defending the left side of the field, 32nd defending the middle, 21st defending the right, 26th defending the deep ball, and 30th defending the short passing game. This is an embarrassingly good spot for the Chargers’ wide receivers.
TIGHT END
1. Attack Atlanta with tight ends: While the Falcons are susceptible in plenty of areas of the field, the best way to attack them this year has been with the tight end and with pass-catching running backs. Considering the Panthers’ only pass-catching running back is Fozzy Whittaker (who does not see much of the field when Jonathan Stewart is healthy), we can expect the Panthers to do what they often do in this spot: feed Greg Olsen the rock, and watch as he feasts. It helps that Kelvin Benjamin has hit a wall, Devin Funchess is unreliable, and Ted Ginn relies on splash plays to get his production; Olsen should be the focal point of this passing game this week, and he projects as a top raw-points play on Saturday.
2. Kyle Rudolph is in a tough spot, but: Although the Packers rank seventh in DVOA against the tight end position, Kyle Rudolph has become one of the most heavily-used tight ends in all of football, with double-digit looks in three of his last four games (and with eight targets in the game that did not see double-digit looks). Rudolph also leads the Vikings in both red zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard-line, making him a major scoring threat each week. With Stefon Diggs continuing to labor through lower-body injuries and Adam Thielen coming back from a neck injury, this is a great spot to fire up Rudolph and watch as the usage flows his way.
3. Jared Cook is not “chasing points”: Rostering Jared Cook never feels good. And rostering Cook after he posted a big game the week before is going to feel like you are “chasing points.” But while Cook brings a “zero-floor” with him, the Packers are taking on a Vikings pass defense that ranks in the top nine in DVOA against all three wide receiver positions, as well as against running backs out of the backfield…but that ranks 24th against the tight end. The best way for the Packers to attack this week will be A) on the ground, and B) through the air to Cook. There’s no guarantee the usage that should be there will be there, and there’s no guarantee Cook will actually catch the balls that are thrown his way. But in tourneys, Cook brings great point-per-dollar upside, and he just may wind up being a tournament-winner.
4. It’s a Vernon Davis kind of week: Although Chicago has done a decent job this year preventing tight end production, they rank 28th in DVOA against the position. Last week, the Packers attacked this matchup with Jared Cook with Jordan Reed looking less and less likely to suit up this week (and expected to see limited snaps if he does play), this is a great spot for a resurgent Vernon Davis to post another nice day, at an affordable salary.
Editor’s Note: Per CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, Jordan Reed has been ruled OUT for Week 16.
5. Cleveland can’t defend tight ends: Cleveland ranks dead last in DVOA against the tight end position (are you surprised?). While Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates will bite into one another’s value, you could not ask for a better matchup, and each guy comes with a solid tournament ceiling.
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Final tips:
Trust your research!
Build the best team you can build.
Go out there and crush!
And most of all: Enjoy the Holidays!
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards when it’s all said and done.