10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 13th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Sunday, August 13th.
1. Corey Kluber has posted complete game three-hitters with 11 strikeouts in each of his last two starts, against the Yankees and Rockies, respectively; it’s the first time a pitcher has put together two straight complete game three-hitters with 11+ punchouts since R.A. Dickey did it in 2012, and it’s just the 11th time in MLB history a player has had two such games in a row. Kluber is absolutely rolling, and now he’s facing a strikeout-happy Rays team that has allowed opposing starters to reach double-digits in strikeouts an MLB-leading 13 times. And it doesn’t look like their strikeout tendencies are improving; over the last six games, Tampa Bay has fanned 9, 13, 7, 8, 10, and 9 times againstthe last six starters they’ve faced (Nelson, Sale, Porcello, Salazar, Carrasco, and Clevinger). As if all this isn’t enough, Kluber gets a massive ballpark boost, as well, as he’ll be pitching in Tropicana Field. As a massive -200 favorite, Kluber is the lock-and-load option for cash games on Sunday.
2. Michael Wacha has allowed a .252 wOBA over his last eight starts, dating back to June 26th; the only pitchers (min. 40 IP) who have been better during that span are Sonny Gray (.219), Corey Kluber (.219), James Paxton (.220), Gio Gonzalez (.230), and Chris Sale (.231). Wacha has also upped his typically pedestrian strikeouts during this stretch, posting an excellent 27.2% strikeout rate to go with a solid 29.9% hard hit rate. Wacha has the added benefit of pitching at home, where he’s been far better this year (2.67 ERA at home, 5.11 away), which makes sense given that Busch Stadium is the fifth-most pitcher-friendly park in baseball, per ESPN. The Braves have the fourth-lowest implied run total of the day at just 3.76 runs, and at an affordable price ($9,300 at DraftKings, $18,000 at FantasyDraft), Wacha fits the bill as a top SP2 option to pair with Kluber on Sunday’s main slate.
3. In his 11 starts before landing on the disabled list (75 2/3 IP), Dallas Keuchel allowed 14 earned runs; in his three starts since returning from the disabled list (12 IP), Dallas Keuchel has allowed…14 earned runs. His ERA has risen by 71.9 percent over these last three games (up from 1.67 to 2.87), and the advanced numbers — the 5.79 SIERA, 38.5% hard hits, the 10.5% strikeout rate — all suggest that this isn’t simply variance working against Keuchel. Whether he’s still dealing with the neck injury that caused him to miss nearly two months is something we can only speculate on, but Vegas has zero faith in Keuchel, as his opponent, the Texas Rangers, have the third-highest implied run total of the day at 5.32 runs. While the Rangers’ lefty-heavy lineup makes them difficult to stack against left-handed pitching, right-handers like Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Napoli all make for fantastic one-offs in tournaments given that Keuchel’s name value could scare off some ownership.
4. Since the All-Star break, J.A. Happ has allowed an 81.7 average exit velocity, the lowest of any pitcher in MLB (min. 500 pitches). He’s also allowed hits 95 mph or faster on just 3.32 percent of his pitches thrown, which is second-best in MLB (trailing only Charlie Morton). If you take out one ugly start in Cleveland where he allowed seven earned runs, Happ has a 2.44 ERA and .271 wOBA over his last 10 starts dating back to July 11th, numbers which would rank ninth and 13th in MLB (min. 40 IP), respectively. Now, there are obvious problems with simply removing an inconvenient game from a player’s game logs, but it’s worth noting that Happ was the victim of some bad luck in that game, posting a .333 BABIP on just 24.0% hard hits. In a matchup with the Pirates, a high-contact team with a low 19.5% strikeout rate against lefties, Happ’s upside is very low. But we’re scrounging for SP2 options not named Wacha on this slate, and Happ’s ability to induce weak contact gives him a leg up on some of the other non-exciting pitcher options on Sunday’s main slate.
5. Joey Votto is in the midst of a 17-game hitting streak in which he has a .627 on-base percentage; that’s more than 100 points higher than the second-place player during that stretch, Mike Trout, with his puny .526 mark. Against Matt Garza .346 wOBA allowed and low 11.6% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters, Votto is, as always, one of the premier cash game plays on the slate.
6. Since Michael Conforto made his major league debut on July 24th, 2015, he’s posted a .262 ISO and 41.6% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching. Only three other players (min. 600 PA) can match or beat those numbers: Matt Carpenter, Chris Davis, and David Ortiz. Not bad company for Conforto, and on Sunday, he not only faces a righty, but he faces a righty who has been torched for a .380 wOBA for his career against righties in the Phillies’ Zach Eflin. Eflin has also allowed 37.0% hard hits to lefties, and he’s only struck them out at an almost invisible 10.3% clip. All of this, of course, bodes well for Conforto. But there’s more. Eflin throws his two-seam fastball more than half the time against southpaws, and Conforto’s .577 wOBA against right-handed two-seamers since 2016 ranks third-best in MLB (min. 75 ABs), trailing Anthony Rizzo at .599 and Charlie Blackmon at .595. With a ballpark boost in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, Conforto is a top option in all formats on Sunday.
7. So, I mentioned that Conforto crushes two-seam fastballs. Well, his teammate Curtis Granderson isn’t bad against that pitchy type either. Granderson’s .491 wOBA against right-handed two-seam fastballs ranks fifth on that list, and the players he’s sandwiched between are both pretty good: Mike Trout (.505) and Paul Goldschmidt (.488) rank fourth and seventh, respectively. Granderson (and to a lesser extent, Conforto) could fly under the radar given some of the other top hitting environments on Sunday, making the pair an excellent mini-stack in tournaments, particularly if they’re near each other in the Mets’ batting order.
8. After a four-hit barrage last night, Tim Beckham now has nine multi-hit games in 12 games since joining the Orioles, the most in MLB during that span; he had only eight games of 2+ hits in his last two months as a Ray, in 36 games across June and July. Beckham is slashing an absurd .531/.549/.939 since joining Baltimore, and while his .622 BABIP is beyond ridiculous, it’s worth noting that the 42.5% hard hit rate he’s posted as an Oriole isn’t an aberration. He’s hit the ball hard all year, with a 42.6% hard hit rate that is 12th-best in MLB and ranks ahead of noted mashers like Michael Conforto (40.7%), Manny Machado (38.8%), and Giancarlo Stanton (38.8%). Beckham has hit leadoff for three days in a row, and if that continues, he’s an absolute steal at DraftKings at just $3,300 (as are all of the Orioles bats, especially Jonathan Schoop at $3,600, Chris Davis at $2,900, and Adam Jones at $3,900). He’ll face Kendall Graveman, who can limit damage (career .317 wOBA, 27.4% hard hits vs. RHB), but whose meager 14.4% strikeout rate should mitigate some of the strikeout risk normally associated with Beckham (30.6 K% vs. RHP this year).
9. Since 2015, Mike Trout ranks first in average (.348), on-base percentage (.479), and slugging (.691) against fly ball pitchers. I rarely write about Trout, simply because it’s really difficult to say “”(player-popup)Mike Trout”:/players/mike-trout-11380 is good” in a new or interesting way, but his 140 tOPS+ against fly ball pitchers during this stretch, compared to his 67 tOPS+ against ground ball pitchers and his 89 tOPS+ against neutral pitchers, says that the best player in the world is at his best against fly ball pitchers (tOPS+ is a Baseball Reference metric that measures a player’s OPS relative to his OPS against other types of pitchers). If you’re going to pay top dollar for him, you’re better off doing it against a pitcher who gives up fly balls. On Sunday, Trout is (as usual) an elite play against Seattle lefty Ariel Miranda, whose 55.9% fly ball rate against right-handed batters this year is the highest mark in MLB. This late in the season, there should be more than enough value out there to fit in Trout, even in Chris Sale lineups.
10. Against left-handed pitching this year, Andrew McCutchen has struck out 15 times; against left-handed pitching this year, Andrew McCutchen has 11 home runs. McCutchen is currently carrying a .461 ISO against southpaw, which is crazy, but just to illustrate how crazy it is, consider that the last player with a .460+ ISO over a full season against lefties was Ryan Braun in 2007. McCutchen’s 28.2% HR/FB rate is certain to regress; he has only had one season with a HR/FB rate above 20.0%, and it’s much easier to believe this is a small sample mirage than that he’s found untapped power in his age-30 season, his ninth as a big-leaguer. However, McCutchen’s 44.6% hard hit rate is smashing his previous career high of 39.5%, so maybe the regression won’t be as severe as we think. Either way, he’s underpriced across the industry, and he’s a fine tournament play as he gets a park upgrade on the road against Blue Jays’ southpaw J.A. Happ.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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