10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 25th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Friday, August 25th.
1. Below are the top five home ERA marks by Diamondbacks pitchers (min. 90 IP), with one name omitted:
Randy Johnson (2002) – 2.12
____________________ – 2.34
Randy Johnson (2004) – 2.47
Randy Johnson (2000) – 2.51
Randy Johnson (2001) – 2.54
I’ll give you a hint: the missing player is not Zach Godley (although I wish it was for the sake of my 4th-place season-long team, In Godley We Trust). You’ve certainly guessed by now that Zack Greinke’s 2.34 home ERA this year is second-best in D-backs history. One year after posting a 4.81 ERA in his first season at Chase Field, Greinke has completely flipped the script and has been dominant at home. On Friday, he’s in an excellent matchup against the Giants, who, despite their ability to make good contact (19.4% K rate against righties is fifth-lowest in MLB), the Giants are woeful against right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 80, which ranks 27th in MLB. While he’s a bit pricey at DraftKings and FantasyDraft ($12,600), he’s a bargain at FanDuel ($9,600).
2. Since 2015, Jacob deGrom has allowed three or fewer earned runs and struck out at least six batters in seven consecutive games against the Nationals; that’s the longest streak of such games by any pitcher against Washington during that span. deGrom already has two games of double-digit strikeouts against the Nationals this year, and those both came in April when the Nationals were at full strength; since then, they’ve lost Adam Eaton, Jayson Werth, Trea Turner, Brian Goodwin, Stephen Drew, and more recently, Bryce Harper. This is a watered-down Nationals lineup, and it explains why the Nationals are tied for 28th with a wRC+ of 82 over the past 30 days. Their 23.3% strikeout rate against righties during that stretch says there’s also the strikeout upside necessary for tournaments. deGrom is neck-and-neck with Greinke as the top pitching option on Friday’s slate.
3. The Rays have a .289 wOBA in August, the worst mark in MLB. Now, if you’re reading this, you understand what wOBA is, and you understand that .289 is not very good. But just to put a finer point on it…their .289 wOBA the same as the career wOBA of Emilio Bonifacio. There’s been strikeout upside in targeting pitchers against the Rays all season, as they strikeout 24.7% of time against righties this year (fourth-highest in MLB). On Friday, they face Michael Wacha, who is a quality pitcher, but let’s be honest – this one’s more about the matchup. Even so, in Wacha’s favor is the fact that he’s pitching at home. He’s shown a real preference for pitching in Busch Stadium this year, compiling a 2.99 ERA while allowing just 25.2% hard hits. Only two other qualified pitchers can say that: Alex Wood and Max Scherzer. At just $7,400 at DraftKings and FanDuel (cheaper than fresh-off-the-DL Chase Anderson at both sites), Wacha is priced to buy in an excellent matchup.
4. Since joining the Cubs on July 16th, Jose Quintana is one of three pitchers with 27.0%+ strikeout rate, a 47.0% ground ball rate, and a 3.73 ERA or lower. The other pitchers on that short list are pretty good: they’re Luis Severino and James Paxton. While none of Quintana’s marks in those categories (27.2 K%, 47.2 GB%, 3.73 ERA) stands out as elite on their own, when combined, they show what a steady, consistent pitcher Quintana is: he keeps the ball down, gets enough strikeouts, and limits the runs. In th right matchup, he can become an elite play, and on Friday, he gets the Phillies, who have an 84 wRC+ against lefties this year, which ranks 24th in MLB. Although the upside is a bit capped, he is an excellent cash game option. But he doesn’t come without risk; the Phillies have some sneaky power against lefties, ranking 12th in ISO at .171. Speaking of power…
5. Rhys Hoskins now has eight home runs in his first 15 games, tying Carlos Delgado (1994) and Trevor Story (2015) for most of any player since 1913 in his first 15 games. But’s it’s not all power; Hoskins has shown an excellent batting eye early in his career, with a 16.4% walk rate that matches his low 16.4% strikeout rate. He’s obviously just a tournament play, but he is reasonably priced across the industry, and Quintana is a strong enough pitcher that his ownership shouldn’t get out of control, despite the hype.
6. The Arizona Diamondbacks take on Ty Blach and his sad 12.0% strikeout rate against righties at Chase Field on Friday, and you know what that means: it’s time for Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez to crush some baseballs. Since 2014, Goldschmidt has a .492 wOBA (best in MLB) with more walks than strikeouts (21.8% BB rate, 21.0% K rate) against lefties at home. And Martinez, for his part, ranks first in MLB with a .418 ISO against lefties since 2014 (Nolan Arenado is next-closest at .381). Neither will come cheap, but the pair makes for an excellent mini-stack if you can afford it.
7. Here are Josh Donaldson’s home run totals by month this year:
April – 2 (35 PA)
May – 1 (17 PA)
June – 5 (110 PA)
July – 3 (107 PA)
August – 11 (93 PA)
After battling injury early in the year, Donaldson seems to be making up for lost time in August, with 11 homers and ranking third in ISO (.514) behind only Joey Gallo (.561) and Giancarlo Stanton (.544). Colon is having a tough year, to put it mildly, and he’s faring worse against righties, allowing a .400 wOBA and 1.69 HR/9 to go with a Ty Blach-esque 13.8% strikeout rate. There’s a good chance Donaldson puts the ball in play on a few occasions, and if that happens, it won’t end well for Colon.
8. Since 2015, Kris Bryant has a .352 ISO and a .404 wOBA against right-handed curveballs; both of those numbers are eighth-best in MLB (min. 50 ABs). This is significant because the curve the signature pitch of Bryant’s opponent on the mound on Friday, Philadelphia’s Jerad Eickhoff. His curve is the reason Eickhoff so effective against right-handers, as he throws it nearly one-third of the time (33.16%) and has allowed a .188 wOBA, third-best in MLB. If Bryant is able to neutralize Eickhoff’s best weapon, he’s got an excellent shot at doing some damage, and at likely lower-than-usual ownership given how loaded third base is on Friday.
9. In the month of August, only three qualified hitters have .450+ wOBA, .290 ISO, and a 14.0 K% or below: Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, and … Jorge Polanco. Now, is this real or sustainable in any way? No. Of course not. This is a guy who slashed .078/.158/.118 on 17.1% hard hits in the month of July. Imagine Dallas Keuchel combined with Chris Sale (well, pre-August 24th Sale…the good Sale) with some Pedro Martinez thrown in, and Polanco made it look like he was facing that pitcher every plate appearance just last month. However, he’s still reasonably cheap at FanDuel ($3,400), and it certainly doesn’t hurt to be batting third for the Twins, the team that has scored the second-most runs in MLB (132) this month, trailing only the Cubs. Overall, though (and especially at DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where he’s way overpriced), this feels like a classic case of selling high on a player and waiting for the price to drop back to a reasonable level.
10. Curtis Granderson has a .333 ISO against four-seam fastballs this year, tied for 21st in MLB…with Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Votto, and Robinson Cano. Chase Anderson is a fly ball pitcher who relies on his four-seamer more than any other pitch (36.3%), and Granderson, with another home run on Thursday (his third since joining the Dodgers on August 19th), has shown serious power against the pitch. Like Polanco, Granderson just feels overpriced at DraftKings, but at just $3,500 at FanDuel, he’s an interesting one-off if you’re home run hunting in tournaments.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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