10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 16th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, May 16, 2016.
1. The Boston Red Sox have at least one homer in 16 consecutive games (the longest current streak in MLB), and if there’s one hitter who could extend that streak on Monday, it’s David Ortiz. Ortiz leads all of baseball with a .420 ISO, and he takes on a pitcher in Kansas City’s Yordano Ventura who, in a limited sample in 2016, is only striking out left-handed batters at an 11.0% rate. That mark is the seventh-lowest among qualified starters in MLB, and the names Ventura is surrounded by on that list (Wily Peralta, Mat Latos, Mike Pelfrey) indicate that, despite his reputation as a promising young arm, he can be targeted by lefties who make a lot of contact. Ortiz does just that, owning a 12.7 K% against RHP in 2016. One more point in Ortiz’s favor: Ventura has a groundball lean (49.3% grounders to LHP since 2015), and Ortiz’s .393 ISO against groundball pitchers is second-best among active left-handed batters (only Chris Davis, at an insane .477, is better).
2. Ortiz’s 1.075 OPS ranks sixth in MLB and is just slightly better than that of his teammate, the much smaller, much younger Jackie Bradley, who has posted a 1.059 OPS. Bradley’s current 21-game hitting streak has been well-documented. During the streak, he’s had eight multi-hit games, more than Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Votto, Miguel Sano, J.D. Martinez, Adam Jones, and Matt Holliday (and lots of others, but you get the point) have had all season. More importantly for DFS players, Bradley has finally been moved out of the 9 spot in the order (of course, on the same day I declared Bradley useless for DFS purposes given his lineup spot), batting 2nd on Saturday and 6th on Sunday.
3. Marcell Ozuna is also (somewhat quietly) in the midst of an impressive hitting streak, with hits in 14 consecutive games. During that span, he’s slashing a ridiculous .446/.475/.732. Okay, so he doesn’t walk much (just three in the 59 PAs during his streak), but he has hit four homers in that span. He’s in for a test on Monday, as he faces…
4. Jerad Eickhoff, whose .218 wOBA allowed to RHB since 2015 is third-best among starters in MLB (minimum 50 IP to RHB) and better than the marks posted by Jose Fernandez (.219), Clayton Kershaw (.226), Jacob deGrom (.226), Jake Arrieta (.227), and Max Scherzer (.228). Sure, we’re still in small sample land with Eickhoff, and while he’s not in the same class as any of the aforementioned, he represents a tough matchup for Ozuna and other Marlins righties not named Stanton. One more feather in Eickhoff’s cap: at 29.0%, he owns the highest K% against RHB among pitchers on Monday’s slate. (Okay, Monday’s slate is terrible for pitchers, so it isn’t that bright of a feather. But it’s a feather).
5. In his first four MLB starts (31.1 IP), Kenta Maeda allowed a total of one earned run. Then, the regression monster hit. In the three starts since (17.2 IP), he’s allowed 10 earned runs. Maeda lacks real K upside (his 22.2 K% is squarely in Nate Eovaldi territory and is ranked 39th among qualified starters). However, Monday is a slate devoid of aces, and his matchup against the punchless Angels is the definition of a safe, high-floor cash game play – the Angels’ 21.6% soft contact rate is the second-highest in MLB, their 27.5% hard contact rate is the fifth-lowest, and their .130 ISO is second-lowest (although it’s about time we start to consider whether or not we can count the Braves and their .068 ISO as a major league team).
6. Continuing with today’s trend of starting pitchers who are relatively safe but offer little upside, we have Rick Porcello. Starting pitchers against the Royals is typically a losing proposition given that their high-contact approach limits opposing pitchers’ strikeout upside. But dating back to 2015, the Royals have been toothless against groundball pitchers, posting a .102 ISO just barely above the Braves’ league-low mark of .099. This year, they’ve been worse, ranking dead last in ISO (.054) and OPS (.531) against groundballers. Porcello hasn’t induced grounders at the same rate as earlier in his career, and he is not a high-upside play. But in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium, the risk of a blowup is low, and that might be all you need on today’s slate.
7. If you found out that the pitcher you rostered only gave up two hits in a matchup with the Blue Jays, chances are you’d be thrilled. That was the case the last time Drew Smyly faced the Jays, back on April 29. The two hits, though, were both home runs. Luckily, they were both solo shots, as Smyly was especially frugal with the free passes – he issued just one walk in that game. In the previous start against Toronto, on April 4, it was the same story: just five hits allowed, but three of them were home runs, albeit solo shots because Smyly, again, issued just one walk. Go further back (August 22, 2014), and you’ll find a complete game, two-hit shutout. Basically, it’s impossible to know what you’ll get from Smyly on Monday, and that makes him a great tournament play.
8. Over 45% of Paul Goldschmidt plate appearances in 2016 have ended with either a walk or a strikeout (43 Ks and 37 BBs in 177 PAs). Apart from David Wright (51.1%) and Domingo Santana (46.4%), that’s more than any other player in baseball. Today, against Chad Green, a last-minute minor league callup by the Yankees (Michael Pineda start was moved to Tuesday), Paul Goldschmidt makes for a great tournament play who should be lower-owned than David Ortiz.
9. Since the start of 2015, Williams Perez has allowed a .373 wOBA to left-handed batters – that’s the 13th-highest mark in MLB. It would seem like Gregory Polanco, recently moved to the #3 spot in the order when Pittsburgh is facing a RHP, an excellent play on Monday. But the upside may not be as high as it seems. Perez is a groundball pitcher, and Polanco’s numbers suffer in matchups against groundballers – in 294 PAs against groundballers since 2014, he has a .091 ISO, while in 307 PAs against flyball pitchers, he has a .179 ISO. With the sixth-highest contact rate in MLB (88.4%) Perez’s stuff is extremely hittable, so it’s possible Polanco could get hold of one. Still, with an ISO under .100 in that split, he’s likely better suited to cash games than GPPs.
10. Another Pirates player who offers little upside against groundball pitchers is Jung Ho Kang. In 107 career PAs against groundball pitchers, he has a .202 average, has hit one career home run, and has a slugging percentage (.298) lower than his on-base percentage (.299).