10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Sunday, June 2nd
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Sunday, June 2nd..
1. Max Scherzer has shaved 13.4 points off his fly ball rate from 2018 to 2019, the largest decrease in fly ball rate by a pitcher in MLB. There was once a time when the narrative around Scherzer was something, “Sure, he may give up a solo home run or two, but it doesn’t matter because strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts.” Well, he’s shored up that aspect of his game. Check out how his HR/9 totals have dropped over the last few seasons:
Scherzer’s newfound ability to keep the ball from being elevated should come in handy in Great American Ball Park and mitigate some of the risk inherent whenever a fly ball pitcher finds himself in a hitter-friendly venue. For cash games, this is a “don’t overthink it” spot; the Reds are below average against righties (85 wRC+ and 24.2% K rate), and Scherzer is the one truly elite pitcher on the slate (sorry, Matt Boyd and Lucas Giolito got a ways to go to catch up with Max).
2. While Scherzer is easily the top option on Sunday’s main slate, the most interesting option may be erstwhile DFS punching bag Lucas Giolito. Last year, Giolito had a 5.37 SIERA that ranked dead last among 57 qualified pitchers. This year, the once elite prospect may have transformed into an elite big-leaguer. Here are three quick notes on the new-and-improved Giolito:
— In his most recent start, an eight-inning, 10-strikeout gem against the Royals, Giolito induced 26 swings and misses, by far a career high; his previous career high was 17.
— On the season, he’s seen a 4.5 percent jump in his swinging-strike rate, the largest jump in MLB from 2018 to 2019.
— He’s made a 13.2 percent increase in his strikeout rate from last year (16.1%) to this year (29.4%), also the biggest improvement in MLB, and it’s not close; the second-largest bump in K rate belongs to Matt Boyd, who upped his rate by 7.5 percent.
Giolito faces an Indians team that, somewhat surprisingly, has the fifth-worst wRC+ in MLB against righties (82). The problem is his price tag: both DraftKings and FanDuel are forcing you to silence your inner Derek Carty and buy into the small sample; compared to Scherzer, Giolito is just $700 cheaper at DraftKings and $400 at FanDuel. At Yahoo, though, Giolito is priced at a much more playable $45.
3. It’s a tough day for SP2 at two-pitcher sites, but luckily, Julio Teheran is a person that exists in the world, and so do his crazy platoon splits. Teheran has been, for a long time, a pitcher to attack with lefty bats. But Teheran has a real ability to limit the damage against right-handed batters. Consider this: since 2018, he’s allowed right-handed batters to slash just .199/.302/.367. The only other pitchers in MLB to limit righties to .199/.302/.367 are Chris Sale, Blake Snell, and Justin Verlander. His splits matter today, because he’ll take on a right-heavy Tigers lineup that will only include a few relatively non-threatening lefties (Nico Goodrum, Christin Stewart, Jeimer Candelario). The Tigers are a whiff-happy bunch (26.5 K% against RHPs, 2nd-highest in MLB), and even when they do make contact, it’s not productive contact (.282 wOBA against RHPs ranks 29th). Teheran presents a nice floor/upside combo given his splits and the solid matchup, but he’ll likely be popular, making him a stronger play in cash games.
4. Only two qualified pitchers in baseball this year pair a 55 percent ground ball rate with a 27 percent strikeout rate. One is one of the biggest breakouts of the year in Luis Castillo; the other is his teammate, Sonny Gray. The ground balls have always been there for Gray, but the strikeouts are new, and they’re partially the result of his throwing a career-high 19.5 percent sliders. Gray’s slider has great horizontal movement on his slide piece (10.5 inches, third-most in MLB). Take a look at his slider over there on the far right in this slider movement chart from Baseball Savant:
Here’s hoping he throws the pitch early and often against the Nationals. With an 83 wRC+ (ranked 25th in MLB) and a 24.4 percent strikeout rate (9th-highest in MLB), the Nats have been weaker against right-handed pitching than you might think. He’s a fantastic tournament day, given that many will steer clear due to matchup concerns.
5. Since his debut on April 26th, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. is responsible for 23 percent of the batted balls across all of MLB hit at 115 mph or greater (he’s got 3; everyone else in MLB has 10). He’s absolutely crushing the ball, as we all knew he would, and a series at Coors Field certainly isn’t hurting anything: he’s got four hits (three of them for extra bases) in the first two of the three-game set. This is a DraftKings-only play, as FanDuel has opted to leave the Coors Field game off their main slate. But at just $4,400, Guerrero seems underpriced for his upside in a matchup against a guy who is a candidate for the “how is this dude a real starter in MLB” award, Antonio Senzatela. With Senzatela allowing 1.69 HR/9 and punching out just 13.4 percent of batters this year, there’s a good chance Vlad gets a hold of one.
6. Only five players in MLB have batting averages of .350 or better against ground ball pitchers since 2016, and two of them are Rockies: David Dahl and Daniel Murphy. (In case you’re wondering, the others on the list are Mike Trout, D.J. LeMahieu, and just in time to ruin a perfectly good and meaningful list … Lonnie Chisenhall). I don’t care that Aaron Sanchez has allowed just a .296 wOBA to lefties this year; Dahl and Murphy and Charlie Blackmon and Tony Wolters and any lefties you can find are in play here; I’d roster Vinny Castilla or Andres Gallaraga at their current ages if they suited up for a team with an implied team total pushing 7 runs. (And on a side note: my sense of reality is really shaken because I just noticed that it is June 2nd and Tony Wolters is worth more bWAR than Charlie Blackmon…).
7. Over the last two seasons (in an admittedly small sample of a couple hundred plate appearances), C.J. Cron is a top 10 hitter against left-handed pitchers, at least according to wRC+. His 161 wRC+ ranks 10th in MLB, and take a look at the elite hitter he just barely edges out in the rankings: Mookie Betts ranks 11th (156), and Alex Bregman ranks 12th (155). Cron finds himself in a solid matchup with the platoon edge against Ryan Yarbrough, who has scuffled in 2019 to the tune of a 5.53 ERA. At just $3,800 at DraftKings and $3,300 at FanDuel, Cron is a great point-per-dollar play who may go a bit overlooked. He makes for an excellent tournament one-off, and he’s a must for any Twins stack.
8. Adalberto Mondesi has been in the majors for roughly one year (he debuted on June 17, 2018). Over the last calendar year, he has 20 home runs and 53 steals and has batted .281; if you look at individual seasons in MLB history, that’s a line that has only occurred 15 times, by pretty much all legendary figures in baseball history. Here’s the full list:
He can hit, he can hit for power, he can steal bags; he’s one of the most dynamic players in baseball, and given Kansas City’s 5.29 implied total, he’s clearly in a great offensive environment on Sunday. Any halfway decent Royals hitter is in play against the woeful offerings of Adrian Sampson (and perhaps especially the righties, as Sampson has allowed a .392 wOBA to them this year), but Mondesi always makes for an interesting game theory play whenever there’s a Coors Field game on the slate. Trevor Story is (as always) a priority in cash games, and it’s hard to justify paying all the way up for Mondesi. The upside is there, though. Give him a look as a contrarian GPP option.
9. Anthony Rizzo is pretty much as hot as he’s ever been. He’s in the midst of a 13-game hitting streak over which he’s posted a .559 wOBA (he did have a 13-game stretch with a .567 wOBA in 2015). Check it out:
The Cubs have a middling (on this slate) 4.45 implied run total, but I love the idea of targeting Rizzo as a one-off, or maybe even as a Cubs stack. Adam Wainwright has been hammered by lefties this year, allowing (get ready) a .409 wOBA and 2.35 HR/9 against southpaws this year. It feels like a certainty that Rizzo will get at least one knock and keep his hit streak alive (and yes, I’m aware that this last sentence basically guarantees that Rizzo goes hitless…).
10. Austin Riley is the second player in MLB history (joining Rhys Hoskins in 2017) to hit 8 home runs in his first 16 games in Major League Baseball. He’s doing damage seemingly every time he steps to the plate, and he should be virtually unowned on Sunday. Okay, he’ll be virtually unowned because he faces a really good pitcher in Tigers lefty Matt Boyd. But he does have the platoon edge against Boyd, and even if he is shut down by Boyd, Riley should get an at-bat or two against a putrid Tigers bullpen that has surrendered 1.88 HR/9, the second-most in MLB. He should be nowhere near cash games, but he’s an off-the-radar tournament option with home run upside.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!