10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Wednesday, June 20th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Wednesday, June 20th.
Wednesday, June 20th
1. The Minnesota Twins have 11 home runs against left-handed pitchers this year, fewest of any team in MLB; for context, that’s the same number of homers as Christian Villanueva has against lefties, all by himself. On the season, the Twins’ .130 ISO against southpaws ranks 27th in MLB, and it should be even weaker now that of its biggest power threats, Miguel Sano, has been sent to Triple-A. Their 24.0 percent strikeout rate also ranks in the bottom-third of MLB, making David Price arguably the top option on an iffy slate for pitching.
2. Arguably, because Charlie Morton also takes the hill in an even better matchup. Morton is the only pitcher in MLB with a 28 percent strikeout rate and 50 percent ground balls since 2017. While he’s been scuffling as of late, with an uncharacteristic 55.3 percent hard hits and 6.00 ERA over his past three starts, Wednesday’s matchup with the Rays sets up as a perfect get-right spot for Morton. Tampa Bay owns a paltry .130 ISO against righties on the year, ranking 27th in MLB. And while the 2018 version of the Rays doesn’t fan quite as freely as in years past, Morton possesses a wicked curve that should allow him to generate enough punchouts on a slate without many high-upside arms. Morton’s curve (is it too on-the-nose to call it Morton’s Uncle Charlie? I think so…), which he throws 29.5 percent of the time (fifth-most in MLB), has generated an insane 49 percent whiff rate, best of any other curveball in MLB. His price tag is high, but Morton’s combination of safety and upside is unrivaled on Wednesday’s slate.
3. In his MLB debut, Jonathan Loaisiga tossed five innings of scoreless ball, collecting six strikeouts along the way; kind of amazingly, he’s the only Yankees hurler in history to post that line in his first start in the majors. Now, one great start doesn’t etch Loaisiga’s hard-to-spell, harder-to-pronounce name in Cooperstown; just taking a look at others in recent history who have matched that line in their MLB debuts will confirm (Mike Wright, Manny Banuelos, Antonio Senzatela, to name a few). But can he keep it going for one more start? The Mariners do not represent an elite matchup, striking out just 20.5 percent of the time against righties, fifth-lowest in MLB. Adding more risk to the matchup, Seattle ranks in the top 10 in team wOBA against righties, as well. However, if we can indulge in a bit of recency bias, it’s worth noting that the Mariners have allowed 17+ DraftKings points to the last five starters they’ve faced, including 34.55 to Loaisiga’s rotation-mate Domingo German just last night. The pitching on this slate is ugly enough that Loaisiga is viable as an SP2, albeit one with plenty of risk given his inexperience and the subpar matchup.
4. This year, Gio Gonzalez has allowed a .210 wOBA to left-handed batters this year, compared to a .327 mark versus righties; he’s striking out 31.3 percent of lefties, compared to just 20.4 percent of righties; he’s allowing an elite 25.6 percent hard contact to lefties but 33.0 percent hard contact to righties…you get the idea. Of course we’re dealing in small samples (especially with the lefty numbers), but Gonzalez has a long history of being elite versus same-handed hitters and below average against righties. While Baltimore is far from a potent offense, they do have the ability to roll out a lineup of nine right-handers, as they did when they last faced a lefty (Wei-Yin Chen on June 16th). Gonzalez’s wide platoon splits and the likelihood of being without the platoon edge for much of the night relegates him a distant third in terms of overall points on Wednesday’s slate, well behind Morton and Price. Sure, he’s in play for tournaments, as the Orioles have shown their incompetence all year (83 wRC+, .293 wOBA). For cash games, though, he’s not worth the risk.
5. Of the 199 players with at least 50 batted ball events against right-handed curveballs over the past three seasons, Charlie Blackmon’s .386 ISO ranks fourth. Not surprisingly, Blackmon’s ISO against curves jumps to .419 when he’s at home. This is significant, with Seth Lugo throwing his curve nearly a third of the time this year. We’ll keep this one short, since it’s a bit obvious, but in case you needed any more reason to play Charlie Blackmon, the fact that he crushes Lugo’s best pitch certainly doesn’t hurt his case.
6. On Monday night, Brandon Nimmo hit his 11th and 12th home runs (including this inside-the-parker); in the minors, Nimmo’s career-high for any season was 11 home runs, back in Triple-A in 2016, and it took him 444 plate appearances in to get there (compared to the 210 it’s taken him to reach 12 this year). While it’s easy to call Nimmo’s added power an early-season fluke, it’s worth noting that he is consistently making good contact, with a 43.9 percent hard-hit rate that’s in the same range as guys like Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich, and Bryce Harper. He’s also raised his launch angle significantly, from 9.6 degrees in 2017 up to 15.1 degrees this year. Against Chad Bettis (five earned runs allowed in four straight games), Nimmo and the rest of the Mets are high-priority bats in what could turn into another shootout at Coors.
7. Eric Thames hit the ball hard last year, but this year, it’s another thing altogether. Last year, he barreled up 11.1 percent of balls in play; this year, that number has nearly doubled, up to 21.4 percent. Among players with 50 batted balls, that 21.4 percent rate ranks second in MLB, trailing only only Joey Gallo. Put another way, in limited playing time Thames already has 12 barrels, which is more than Nolan Arenado’s 11 despite the fact that Arenado had 144 more chances (199 batted ball events to Thames’s 56). Chad Kuhl is abysmal versus lefties, and in 2018, he’s allowing career-highs in fly ball rate (43.9%), HR/FB rate (17.0%), hard-hit rate (41.4%) to lefties. Thames could easily take Kuhl deep, and if he does, you’ll have him at likely low ownership due to his (admittedly high) $5,000 tag at DraftKings.
8. Kyle Seager has a .214 BABIP on 41.9 percent hard hits against right-handed batters; that’s the second-lowest BABIP of any player with 41.0 percent hard hits (and the player with the lowest, Bryce Harper, is a bit of a mirage, as he’s banged out 14 homers that are not included in his low BABIP). Clearly, Seager is past due for some positive regression, but perhaps what is most enticing about him on Wednesday (apart from his affordable price tag across the industry) is his 46.6 percent fly ball rate against righties (16th-highest in MLB), which could come into play given Yankee Stadium’s notoriously short right field porch. If you’re playing Loaisiga, you’re most likely looking elsewhere at third base. However, Seager has a great chance to go deep in this one, making him an excellent play if you’re fading the young Yankees hurler.
9. Speaking of potential homers in Yankee Stadium, consider this: 10 of Didi Gregorius’ 14 home runs this year have come against righties at home; that’s good for a .350 ISO, bettered only by J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge, Manny Machado. While Felix Hernandez has had his moments this year, the changeup that once neutralized left-handed batters is now an average pitch, leading to Felix posting a .356 wOBA and 1.6 HR/9 over the past two seasons; for context, Bartolo Colon has allowed a .367 wOBA and 1.7 HR/9 to lefties over that same stretch, not too far off from Felix’s numbers. Despite Felix’s name recognition, don’t be afraid to fire up Yankees lefties, including Gregorius, and hope for a few home runs in tournaments.
10. Here is the complete list of players with higher ISOs against fly ball pitchers since 2016 than Robinson Chirinos .312 mark: J.D. Martinez, Gary Sanchez, Bryce Harper, Khris Davis, Mike Trout. Yes, it’s a small sample (256 plate appearances). But with Chirinos being affordably priced ($3,000 at DraftKings) in a matchup with fly ball pitcher Jakob Junis, it may be worth taking a shot that Chirinos’ insane power numbers against fly ball pitchers are real. Junis tends to allow more fly balls to lefties, but his 41.1 percent hard contact to righties says this is still a positive matchup for Chirinos. He’s one of the better punt options on the slate and provides an easy path to freeing up salary for more Coors Field exposure.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!