10 Notes: Week 9 Sneak Peek
Dear Daily Fantasy Football,
We like you just the way you are.
We understand that baseball is getting a lot of love with the World Series, and the whole “even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4” thing has its own appeal that, to you, might seem edgy and unpredictable. We know that all week, there’s been chatter of how the chalk was winning every single week, and that you might have seen this as us thinking you’re boring, or worse: “safe.” But here’s the thing: sometimes, safe is good. We don’t like it when Mike Trout goes 0-for-4 in a plus matchup. It’s frustrating. So when Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Spencer Ware, Jimmy Graham DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, etc. etc. etc. ALL put up duds, well, it feels like you’re trying to be something you’re not. It feels like you’re trying to be daily fantasy baseball. And sure, we like daily fantasy baseball, but we also like you, daily fantasy football. You’re predictable without being obvious, dependable without being dull. You know exactly how to surprise us, and when to surprise us, and how often. But in Week 8, if we’re being honest…it was just too much.
And we know that over the past week, it’s been NBA this, NBA that. It might feel like we’ve forgotten about daily fantasy football. But you’ve got nothing to worry about; daily fantasy basketball could never replace you. Once Sunday comes around, it’s all about you, daily fantasy football. Always has been. So we get it – it makes sense that you tried be like daily fantasy basketball with the whole Ty Montgomery “illness” late scratch. But it’s just not you. Why are you trying to be something you’re not? Leave the last-minute scratch stuff to the NBA, where it belongs – I mean, did you really think you’d be able to compete with two Dirk Nowitzki late scratches? The whole “is he going to play or isn’t he?” routine is the NBA’s gimmick, and it works there. We won’t deny it. It’s thrilling, but it’s thrilling in the same way playing Russian roulette or eating anything with ground beef as an ingredient at Taco Bell is thrilling. We miss being able to wake up and know exactly what we’re getting on Sunday morning. We miss you, daily fantasy football.
The bottom line is, just be yourself. Because we like you. And Week 8…we didn’t like Week 8 (that is, unless your name is jakz101, in which case you really liked Week 8). Come back, daily fantasy football. We miss you.
Sincerely,
Spurned DFS’ers Everywhere
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping Week 8 with 10 noteworthy happenings.
1. Week 8 is the place chalk comes to die. Take a look at some of the following notable DraftKings point totals. Julio Jones: 5.90 points. Mike Evans: 11.00 points. Spencer Ware: 6.70 points. Jimmy Graham: 6.40 points. You get the idea. If you took a more game theory centered approach, there’s a good chance you had a successful weekend. If you failed to go too far “left of center,” as JMToWin suggested, you’re probably writing a letter begging for the daily fantasy football you knew and loved to come back.
2. Injuries, injuries, injuries. The players who were injured and left their games included Spencer Ware, Jacquizz Rodgers, T.Y. Hilton, Will Fuller, Julio Jones, Devontae Booker, DeSean Jackson …and the list goes on. Football is a game where grown men turn themselves into projectiles and hurl themselves at each other; injuries are inevitable. But this week felt especially tilting.
3. Derek Carr had the 10th-most-prolific passing day in NFL history, at least from a yardage perspective. With 513 yards through the air, Carr tied Phil Simms’s mark, set in 1985, and set a new Raiders franchise record (and it’s not that close):
He’s on pace for 4,642 yards, 34 TDs, and just 6 INTs. While he’s nothing more than a GPP flier in Week 9 (as the Raiders face Denver), this performance might have vaulted him into the elite category of QBs.
4. Michael Crabtree (16) and Amari Cooper (15) finished ranked first and tied for second in targets. If you watched GrindersLive on Sunday morning, you likely heard BigT mention that the Oakland side of the game would go overlooked with everyone targeting the Jameis Winston + Mike Evans pairing. If you’re smarter than me, you took BigT’s advice and upped your Carr/Crabtree/Cooper exposure.
5. David Johnson turned Carolina cornerback Robert McClain into a hurdle.
6. Rob Gronkowski broke Stanley Morgan’s all-time Patriots record for receiving touchdowns, finding the end zone for the 69th time in his career. He’ll have company atop the high-priced tight end pool in the coming weeks, as Jordan Reed returned with a vengeance, catching nine of the 12 passes Kirk Cousins threw his way for 99 yards and a touchdown. Tyler Eifert also made his much-awaited return and didn’t disappoint, catching nine of 11 passes for 102 yards and a score, and Travis Kelce hauled in seven passes on 10 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown.
7. In Week 8 against the Lions, Brock Osweiler was in in a dream matchup. And he had a dream performance, as long as the dream is the one where you go to school in your underwear, or the one where your teeth fall out, or the one where you go to school in your underwear and then your teeth fall out. The Lions were missing Darius Slay, their best corner, and even before that, they ranked dead last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. Osweiler only targeted DeAndre Hopkins seven times, which yielded four catches for 44 yards. Moving forward, it’s hard to imagine any scenario that Texans receivers are in play, barring a QB change. Today, Texans owner was quoted as saying Osweiler is “still basically a rookie.” Yep. And I’m “still basically in my twenties.”
8. Breaking! Aaron Rodgers is still good. Despite being without Ty Montgomery, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Jared Cook, Rodgers still tossed four touchdown passes and ran one in, as well.
9. J.J. Nelson responded with 27.90 DraftKings points, or 0.2 points more than the combined point totals of Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Brandon Marshall. If you watched “Don West’s DFS Deals,” this shouldn’t have come as a surprise.
10. Cam Newton took a ton of hits, and according to USA Today, he doesn’t feel safe anymore. The article claims Newton used “choice words” about the lack of calls from officials. Among those choice words were “bullcrap” and “horsecrap” (that’s true). Newton plans to take it up with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, who has a proven track record of being logical and rational in matters like these. Given his concussion earlier in the year and now this, it’s feeling less and less safe to roster Newton on a weekly basis.
Week 9 Snap Judgments
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 9, using DraftKings prices.
Colin Kaepernick vs. New Orleans – $5,600 – Kaepernick is the 15th-most-expensive QB at DraftKings, and he’s rushed for 150 yards in his first two games as a starter in Chip Kelly’s offense. He hasn’t eclipsed 200 yards through the air, but he’s faced two competent pass defenses (Buffalo and Tampa Bay, ranked 16th and 17th, respectively, in Football Outsiders’ DVOA entering Week 8). New Orleans is not a competent pass defense, despite limiting a hobbled Russell Wilson on Sunday. Kaepernick should be the fashionable cheap QB option for Week 9.
Andrew Luck @ Green Bay – $6,700 – For those paying up at QB (and “paying up” is relative – Luck still costs less than Allen Robinson), Luck should be popular. Atlanta just showed what an NFL quarterback (read: not Matt Barkley) can do to them, completing 28 of 35 passes and finding the end zone three times. This is an early shootout candidate, and either QB will be worth paying up for.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Indianapolis – $7,800 – Rodgers is the most expensive quarterback of Week 9, but this matchup doesn’t get much better. He’s at home, and the Colts have allowed multi-touchdown QB performances in each of their past five games, including allowing three to the Alex Smith / Nick Foles tandem yesterday. Particularly if Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery return, Rodgers is a lock for a big game in Week 9.
Ezekiel Elliott @ Cleveland – $7,900 – Cleveland has given up five rushing TDs in the past two weeks, and entering Week 8, they ranked 30th in rush defense DVOA. On a week when David Johnson is on bye and Le’Veon Bell takes on the Ravens’ run defense, which is the best unit in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, I can’t see any scenario where Zeke isn’t the most popular high-end running back on the slate. That is, unless he starts hanging out with Ty Montgomery and catches his tummy ache and is ruled out on Sunday morning.
Devontae Booker @ Oakland – $6,400 (!!!) – Wow. That escalated quickly. Booker’s price has risen $2,700 from last week, when he was priced egregiously low at $3,700. He’s the sixth-highest-priced RB of DraftKings’ main slate in Week 9. And good for DraftKings; now everyone has a legitimate decision as to whether Booker is worth rostering. Against Oakland’s run defense (ranked 27th in DVOA entering Week 8), he’s still in consideration, although far from a steal.
Charcandrick West vs. Jacksonville – $4,400 – Obviously, this is contingent on the health of the Chiefs top two backs (Spencer Ware, Jamaal Charles). If both are ruled out, West will be the de facto “cheap guy who allows you to roster any high-priced guy you want” for Week 9, and he could see Devontae Booker-ish ownership levels in Week 9 in his positive matchup against Jacksonville (24th in rush defense DVOA entering Week 8).
Michael Thomas @ San Francisco – $5,500 – Thomas continues to defy the odds and be a safe, reliable, consistent target in a Drew-Brees-led offense. In Week 8, he caught all six of his targets for 63 yards against one of the best pass defenses in the league in Seattle. The Saints/49ers game in Week 9 is going to be full of fantasy goodness, as it pairs the team that runs the most plays per game (San Francisco) with the team that runs the fourth-most (New Orleans). Thomas’s price is inching upward, but he’s still affordable – he’s priced below Marvin Jones against Minnesota, for example. In fact, the whole $5k-$6k tier for receivers seems to have a lot of value (Thomas, Ty Montgomery, Davante Adams, Tyrell Williams, Willie Snead, and Stefon Diggs all seem like solid plays).
Antonio Brown @ Baltimore – $8,900 – Early reports are that Ben Roethlisberger could play in Week 9, which means that Antonio Brown should be back on our radars. And the best part is, his price has dropped over $1,000 from the $10,000+ he was at before Roethlisberger went down. He faces the Ravens’ funnel defense (ranked #1 in rush defense DVOA, #15 in pass defense DVOA entering Week 8) and a secondary that has allowed four different receivers (Corey Coleman, Allen Robinson, Michael Crabtree, Odell Beckham, Jr.) to have multi-touchdown games this year.
Davante Adams vs. Indianapolis – $5,900 – Adams caught 12-of-14 targets for 79 yards in Week 8. Of course his production got a boost when Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery were ruled out, and now his price has risen $1,000. If Cobb and/or Montgomery return (which they should), Adams is probably not worth the price tag, even after a few solid weeks of production.
Kyle Rudolph vs. Detroit – $4,000 – Another week, another TD for a tight end facing the Lions. C.J. Fiedorowicz was a popular value play in Week 8 as a tight end against Detroit, and he paid off with five catches for 43 yards and a score. While Rudolph isn’t quite as cheap as Fiedorowicz, he’s one of the more targeted tight ends in the league; in fact, he has the same number of targets as Jimmy Graham this year (44). Here’s hoping he has a dud on Monday Night Football in order to keep his ownership somewhat in check.
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Thanks for reading! All stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Reference, StatMuse, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and FootballGuys.com.
Be sure to check out “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for NFL Week 8, which will be published on Thursday. Good luck this week!