Week 8, In Which We Step To the Left Of Center
It wasn’t even my joke.
Actually, it was his joke. He just didn’t remember having told it to me years earlier.
But I swear, I had never seen him laugh so hard. He hadn’t heard the joke in probably 20 years, and when I told it, he thought it was just the best thing ever.
I probably could have told a few more jokes after that. I probably could have drawn a few more laughs – from decades-old jokes that had once belonged to him, and that he no longer remembered.
The reason I remember all those jokes myself is because…quite simply, they made no sense.
_____
My dad has always enjoyed jokes. “Humor,” I guess you could call it – though that word definitely belongs in quotations as things pertain to some of the jokes he used to tell. (The grand irony of it all is that my wife is actually a connoisseur of “dad humor” herself. Maybe I’ll get there too, someday – probably just as soon as I have kids of my own…)
When I was a kid, my dad would regularly come home with a new joke that he would tell us around the dinner table. My sisters would sometimes laugh. I guess I would sometimes laugh, too. But usually, instead of laughing, I would sit there and think, “Wait. There’s a hole in this story…”
Here, let me tell you the joke I repeated to him a few weeks ago – the joke that made him laugh harder than I had probably ever seen him laugh before…
_____
There was this guy who was having real bad problems with gas. He just kept farting – and no matter what he did, he couldn’t get the farts to stop. Finally, he decided to go to the doctor to see if he could help.
“Doc, I have this problem, and I need your help. I keep farting all the time. They don’t make any sound, and they don’t smell bad, but it’s just annoying. It happens all the time – and I cannot get it to stop.”
“Hmmm,” the doctor said. “I think I know what the trouble is. Here, I’m going to write you a prescription; take these, and come back in a week so I can see you again.”
The guy with the farting problem got the prescription filled and took the pills and came back a week later – thoroughly upset. Once he finally got out of the waiting room and got in to see the doc, he said, “I don’t know what you did to me, doc, but I’m still farting all the time. The farts still don’t make any noise. But now, they stink!”
The doc wrote down something on his clipboard, then he looked at the patient. “Good,” he said. “We got your sense of smell fixed. Now, let’s work on your hearing.”
_____
I told that joke to my dad recently, not because I thought it was particularly funny (though he would disagree), but because it had stuck in my head for over 20 years, for the simple fact that it made no sense. I was probably 10 years old when he told that joke, and my immediate thought at the time was, “Wait – if he couldn’t hear well enough to hear his own farts, he wouldn’t have been able to hear the doctor talking to him.” That was my takeaway from that joke, as a kid. And that was the reason that joke stuck with me for two decades.
Oh – and yes. I was an extremely logical child. I had a complete inability to deal with anything illogical. In my mind, everything had to be in exactly the right order – everything had to be quantifiable and justifiable. Everything had to make sense.
Thankfully, I have moved on from that. I mean…not fully. But enough. Enough that I no longer get tripped up by logic in the silliest situations. Enough that I can hear a joke and enjoy it for the idea behind it, even if it does not make sense.
Thankfully, I have gotten over my “logic block” enough to do well in DFS, too. And really, that’s what this is all about…
_____
If you pay attention, you will notice that those who truly “know the most about a sport” – those who know a sport inside and out, and have as much knowledge as (or more knowledge than) anyone else in the country – tend to do only okay in DFS. Sometimes, such people even do downright poorly.
It’s a strange situation. After all, logic (freaking logic!) would dictate that those who know the most about a sport will inevitably be those who will do best in DFS in that sport. And yet, this is often not the case. Talk to people who know “too much,” and the entire focus of roster construction is on figuring out who the absolute best players are, and playing only those players. Then, in order to fit those “absolute best” players on a roster, these individuals will often take the “absolute best” value plays who can reach their “salary multiplier” and keep the roster afloat.
But it’s a funny thing: DFS is, honestly, a bit illogical. DFS rosters that are just a bit illogical are often the rosters that do best. And it is those who are willing to look at things differently – approaching things from a different angle – who end up achieving the most success.
It is those who are willing to be a bit illogical – doing what I call “taking a step to the left of center” – who make more money than anyone else.
_____
In DFS tourneys, we want the best plays on our roster. But more than that, we want the best plays no one is on.
It’s tough to talk about this right now, when “chalk” has been hitting so heavily, week in and week out. And frankly, there is a good week’s worth of reading you could do on the subject of Game Theory in DFS (and by “a week’s worth of reading,” I don’t mean “a week’s worth of reading in your spare time” – I mean you could take a week off work and dive into nothing but “Game Theory DFS” study and fill up your whole week), but suffice it in this space to say: if you have played DFS long enough, you know a time is coming – a week (or several weeks in a row) in which several of the most popular plays will fail to perform. A week in which the “chalk” gets erased.
Furthermore, a balance will fall on the DFS landscape once the chalk misses a couple times. Once we reach that point, the “chalk” will become less chalky. You’ll be able to feel a bit more comfortable going to the most obvious plays, as we won’t have the constant 40% and 50% ownership we have been seeing lately.
But know, nevertheless, that the time is coming when the chalk will miss. And when that happens, those who have taken a step to the left of center will benefit – bigly.
Even more than that, however, taking “a step to the left of center,” in my mind, means more than simply “finding a pivot off the chalk.” It means, instead, looking at things in a different way, in order to find plays that others may be overlooking. Terrelle Pryor was low-owned the first week he played the “Slash” role on the Browns. Jay Ajayi was low-owned last week, even after rushing for over 200 yards the week before (was he a sure-thing play last week? – of course not, but as we talked about in the NFL Edge last week, Miami beat writers were acting like Ajayi was officially the lead back, and if that was going to be the case, he was going to be a strong play again). Those are just two examples, but every week there are a few plays that go off at low ownership – and most of the time (if you are not on those plays yourself), you can look at those plays in retrospect and say, “Wow – how was that play not the chalk?”
This week, stick to your convictions. Play what you feel are the best plays. If you are convinced that “the most popular play on the weekend” is the best play, stay there! But also, if you uncover something you feel others will not be on, and you dig around, and you become convinced that the field is making a mistake by overlooking that spot, stick to your convictions. Stand on that spot to the left of center. Play the play that others are not seeing.
If it works, you just might find yourself enjoying your best weekend of the season.
Without further ado, then, let’s bid adieu to the intro. Let’s take a look at some of the plays this week that reside a step to the left of center.
_____
This week, we are going to do things a bit differently. Rather than going through just a few “favorite plays” at each position, I am going to talk through the position as a whole – sharing my overall thoughts as I see them at the moment. This is certainly a more fun approach than simply listing a few favorite plays – but I also feel this is a more valuable approach for you, the reader. Let me know in the comments what you think!
QUARTERBACKS
First off, let’s mention what matters most in terms of “taking a step to the left of center” at the quarterback position: With FanDuel and DraftKings each requiring you to roster only one quarterback, and with there inevitably being a number of appealing quarterbacks available each week, ownership tends to get spread out. Sure, you’ll be able to find some guys at 2% or 3% ownership, but you’ll almost never see anyone over 20% owned. As such, you can typically feel comfortable going with the quarterback you feel is the best point-per-dollar play on the board.
This week, a number of guys potentially land in that category. The obvious guys seem to be Jameis Winston, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers. I guess you could throw Russell Wilson in there as well, and you could throw in Derek Carr on the other side of the Jameis game.
The matchup could not be sweeter for Jameis, and while the Bucs have held him to only 30 pass attempts in back-to-back games, they are likelier to let him open things up at home (where the Bucs are also aiming to work on their no-huddle, hurry-up offense a bit). He’s definitely a top play this weekend.
The same goes for Carr on the other side, as a quarterback people are seemingly still not ready to acknowledge is one of the elite passers in the game. The Bucs are fairly susceptible both on the ground and through the air this year, which could lead to a balanced attack from an Oakland team that has been balanced all year (12th in the NFL in “passing play percentage”), though the likely up-tempo play of the Bucs could lead to extra opportunities here.
Brady, Ryan, and Rodgers are all fine plays, and while I don’t love Russell Wilson, he should post a solid game (I like him, sure – but given how beat up he is, I feel there are better plays), but Carr and Jameis are not the only “cheaper” guys worth mentioning. We also have a game in Cleveland that deserves our attention.
That game in Cleveland pairs two of the NFL’s three worst pass defenses (DVOA) – which would typically bring DFSers flocking…except that the quarterbacks taking the field against those pass defenses are Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Over the last three seasons, McCown (for the Browns, Buccaneers, and Bears) has 17 games in which he has thrown at least 30 pass attempts. He has thrown for at least 300 yards in eight of those games, and he has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 13 of those games. He is a much better quarterback than a number of NFL starters, and against a Jets defense that stifles the run and gets torched by the pass, we should expect a lot of passes – and a strong game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a bit tougher to trust, as he has only four touchdown passes in his last six games. But against a Browns defense that has allowed at least two passing touchdowns to every quarterback they have faced this year (while allowing 275 passing yards to six of seven quarterbacks), “Angry Fitz” is in play. This is not as sexy as “Angry Brady,” but the last time we saw “Angry Fitz” (after the Texans benched him), he threw for six touchdowns against the Titans.
The last guy I want to bring up here is a man most seem content to overlook, even though he has thrown for 300 yards four times already this year (including in all three of his home games), and has amassed 14 touchdown passes through the first seven games of the season. This man is also priced down a bit on both DraftKings and FanDuel – and he has a glorious neck beard. At home, on the fast turf of Lucas Oil Stadium, against a Chiefs secondary that can be burned in man coverage by the Colts’ speedy wideouts, I like Andrew Luck a lot.
RUNNING BACKS
Before you step too far to the left of center, let’s stand directly on this center square for just a moment and talk about Devontae Booker, Devonta Freeman, Spencer Ware, and Jacquizz Rodgers.
Booker: Play him. Seriously. I know it might be tempting to look for a reason to fade (“The Chargers’ run defense has been pretty solid since Joey Bosa finally took the field,” and all that), realize that the strongest roster construction this weekend includes taking the salary savings with Booker. With very little on the board in other spots in terms of “clear value,” this is a place where I have no interest in getting cute or trying to outsmart the field. If you have read enough of my content, you know I typically play only one lineup – though I do throw anywhere from 10 to 20 additional lineups into the Millionaire Maker most weeks. Even on those teams, I will plan to have full exposure to Booker.
Freeman: In this week’s NFL Edge, I mentioned the following statistic: Through seven games this season, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have combined for the following touch totals: 29, 21, 36, 26, 34, 31, and 28. Obviously, there will not be a direct one-for-one swap here, where Freeman suddenly absorbs all the work. But there is a lot of work to go around, and in an offense that enjoys throwing the ball to the running back, I do like Freeman this week – even with how strong the Packers’ run defense is.
Ware: Also from this week’s NFL Edge: Ware has gone above 21 touches only once all season – making him a lower-floor option than most people want to pretend. He does have a tremendous matchup, and we have seen him post a couple big games this year on limited usage. We saw LeSean McCoy do the same thing a couple weeks back against the 49ers. I like Ware this week – don’t get me wrong. I just think that usage needs to be mentioned.
Rodgers: The Buccaneers could eventually decide to scale back the workload for Quizz (which could happen if they think they will need to ride him for a while longer, or if they feel Peyton Barber is finally ready to take on important snaps), but I still think this is a week in which he will see at least 25 touches – with upside for more. I am a huge sucker for running back volume, and I think Quizz sees more volume this week than either Freeman or Ware.
As appealing as these “center squares” are, there are still a few things to look at over here…one step to the left:
Latavius Murray played over 40 snaps last week and saw 20 touches. Murray is not a particularly talented running back, but the Bucs have been mediocre against the run this year (15th in run defense DVOA, and 15th in yards allowed per carry), and the Raiders have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. While Murray was splitting work early in the season with both DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, the San Francisco Chronicle expects Murray to take on lead back duties moving forward. This is not quite on the same level as Miami Dolphins beat writers last week writing up their articles as if it was a foregone conclusion that Ajayi would remain ahead of Arian Foster, but if this prediction holds true, Murray could see 18 to 20 touches yet again – at a low price, and low ownership.
Frank Gore and Theo Riddick quietly have better matchups than most assume (the Chiefs, against Gore, rank 23rd in yards allowed per carry, while the Texans, against Riddick, rank 22nd; each defense ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in run defense DVOA), and while neither guy is a sexy play, each guy sees locked-in volume and should be able to provide a solid game.
Speaking of teams that are surprisingly poor against the run: the Broncos rank 14th in run defense DVOA and 17th in yards allowed per carry. Not that we can expect Melvin “3.3 yards per carry” Gordon to post a big yardage game, but usage should be there yet again, and he leads the NFL in red zone carries.
Lamar Miller did not suddenly become a committee back. If his shoulder is truly healthy this week (keep a close eye on what beat writers are saying leading up to Sunday), he should go back to full-time usage – against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, in the Lions.
Matt Forte did not suddenly become a workhorse back. But if Bilal Powell is slowed by his turf toe yet again (keep a close eye on what beat writers are saying leading up to Sunday), Forte should see the bulk of the work once more – against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, in the Browns.
With all the attention on the “values,” the more expensive guys could go overlooked. The Eagles have been lights-out against the pass (1st in DVOA; 7th in yards allowed per pass attempt), but they have been susceptible on the ground (13th in DVOA; 24th in yards allowed per carry), making this a great spot for Ezekiel Elliot (as if every week is not a great spot for this run game already). Christine Michael has what might be the worst offensive line in the NFL, but his speed should play marvelously on the turf of the Superdome, and the Saints are not well-versed in the art of tackling. And David Johnson is facing a tough run D in Carolina, but he is playing alongside a quarterback in Carson Palmer who is starting to look like late-career Peyton Manning; DJ should be a big part of the dump-off passing game in this one, and is always a solid bet for a big game.
“I could go on forever, baby.” (Name that movie. Or…don’t. I just realized that might be a dirty line from a dirty movie I don’t know. I was thinking of Home Alone 2: Lost in New York, so if you were thinking that, you win.) But I won’t go on forever. The point is: there are some clear, strong plays at running back. If you use those plays, you’ll probably be in good shape. But much like last week – when you could have pivoted off the chalk to Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon and had an even better day – there may be spots this week where you can take a step to the left of center and do even better than the field. Some of these guys I just detailed might be those plays. Or, there may be others overlooked in this space whom you can uncover yourself.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Randall Cobb is not expected to play in Week 8.
Volume.
Volume.
Volume, volume, volume.
Read enough of my stuff, and you’ll get tired of seeing that word. (Heck, you might be tired of that word already – after I typed it five times in a row to ruin what was once a pretty stretch of empty page.) But volume is a big deal to me.
And honestly? – I don’t see a single cheap wide receiver who can be comfortably relied on for seven or more targets. If we are optimally looking to roster only players we feel have a solid shot at 20+ points (we are), it’s tough to use up roster spots on four-and five-target wide receivers. If I am wrong, however, let me know; if there are cheap wide receivers you feel are a solid bet for seven-plus targets (or who have a truly strong shot at 20+ points), enlighten us in the comments.
Until then…
The obvious places for volume this week are Ty Montgomery, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, and Julio Jones. I like all those guys. Montgomery could see fewer targets (and carries) than he saw the last couple weeks if Don Jackson is able to hold a football or if Knile Davis has learned the offense, but I still think his role will be expansive enough that he is underpriced (this is especially true if Randall Cobb fails to find his way onto the field this week). Each of the Broncos’ wide receivers has seen at least seven targets in all but one game this year, and each guy is near the top of the NFL in red zone usage. Marshall should clear 10 looks with ease against a weak Browns secondary, with Fitzpatrick under center. Hilton’s target low on the season is nine (only Mike Evans averages more targets per game than Hilton), and he is unlikely to lose many looks even with Donte Moncrief set to return. Evans is the NFL’s target monster this season. And while Julio has infuriatingly had five games already in which he has seen single-digit targets (after only two such games all of last season; man, just imagine the sort of season he would be having this year if he were seeing last year’s targets!), his upside is such that he can post the highest score of the weekend on even the limited looks he has been seeing; if you roster him and he happens to grab double-digit targets, look out!
But there are other places to look this weekend. Here are some of my favorites:
Four games back, Amari Cooper saw a lot of Jimmy Smith, against the Ravens. In that game, he received only six targets. Last week, Amari saw a lot of Jalen Ramsey, against the Jaguars. In that game, he received only five targets. Michael Crabtree, meanwhile, saw 23 combined targets in those two games (to the 11 Amari saw). The two games in between? – Amari saw 25 total looks, while Crabtree saw only 11. The Bucs do not have an elite cover corner they can match up on Amari – and this should lead to Amari seeing double-digit looks (and grabbing a massive amount of upside as a result) once again.
The Detroit Lions are tied with the Cleveland Browns for the most passing touchdowns allowed in the NFL, with 18. This week, the Lions take on a Houston offense that has thrown for only eight touchdowns all year. Something has to give – and even with as bad as Brock Osweiler has been this year, I am comfortable banking on the talent of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Hopkins quietly ranks eighth in the NFL in targets per game, at 9.86, while Fuller has a not-too-shabby 7.83 looks per game himself. Against the Lions: Giddy up.
Before playing only 31 snaps last week on a bum hamstring, Terrelle Pryor saw target totals in his previous five games of 13, six (versus New England), nine, 14, and 10. This is another spot where we will want to pay close attention to beat writer reports leading up to Sunday; if those close to the team think Pryor is 100% (or even 90%) healthy, he should be a big part of the Browns’ offense this week, against one of the worst pass defenses the NFL has to offer.
If Donte Moncrief plays this week, I expect seven or more targets for him, and he can beat the Chiefs’ man coverage on the fast turf.
If Randall Cobb is out this week, I expect Davante Adams to receive plenty of targets once more. Desmond Trufant should be on Jordy Nelson (who is getting very little separation this season), which will filter looks toward Davante.
And while the Seahawks have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, we saw last year when the Steelers faced them what a team with a lot of weapons can do. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant were each held under 70 yards (in spite of seeing 12+ targets apiece)…but Markus Wheaton blew up in that game for 201 yards. The Saints have a lot of weapons, and I am expecting one guy to have a solid game. Logic says that “one guy” will be Willie Snead, as he is technically the “number three” option among the wide receivers, and he plays in the slot, but logic is not always what leads us to the correct, off-center spot. If you think you can pinpoint which Saints receiver is likeliest to pick up yards this week, feel free to throw that guy on a deep-tourney entry.
There are probably some other spots to like. There always are! But those are the wide receivers I am seeing at this point who have the best shot at a big game – some of whom certainly reside a step to the left of center.
TIGHT ENDS
Thanks for hanging out this week.
I’ll see you back here next week – same time, same…
What? You want more?
Okay, fine. Though I will say that Graham is probably pretty similar in my mind this week to Devontae Booker. You might be able to step away and find an even better point-per-dollar play, but the floor/ceiling combo is tremendous enough that I do not at all mind simply staying here. Graham has more targets over his last four games (36) than any tight end on the main slate besides Greg Olsen, and while Olsen has to take on a Cardinals defense that shuts down tight ends (5th in DVOA against the position), Graham gets to travel to New Orleans – with a “revenge game” narrative, no less – to take on one of the worst tight end defenses in the NFL.
Of course, Rob Gronkowski gets to play in Buffalo – where he grew up. And while “Narrative Street” is never something we want to rely on too heavily, it does seem Brady and Gronk visit this street each time the team travels to Buffalo. Here are Gronk’s career lines in his five games at Buffalo:
Four catches, 54 yards, two touchdowns
Seven catches, 109 yards, two touchdowns
Five catches, 104 yards, and a touchdown
Seven catches, 94 yards
Seven catches, 113 yards, and a touchdown
Hmmmm.
If fading Gronk or Jimmy, I am likely to go cheap. While I will probably leave Jack Doyle alone (as he will be covered primarily by Eric Berry), and while I will likely avoid Cameron Brate (three targets in back-to-back weeks leaves us wanting more), I do like Gary Barnidge. I especially like Gary Barnidge if Terrelle Pryor projects to be limited once more. Barnidge is averaging 6.6 targets per game over his last five outings, and he is a favorite target of McCown’s. The Jets also rank 20th in DVOA against the position, as Todd Bowles’ blitz scheme often leaves the tight end open.
C.J. Fiedorowicz has also seen seven or more targets in three consecutive games. This is not an offense that emphasizes the tight end, but Brock Osweiler would seemingly rather throw to C.J. than to his stud receivers. Great move, Brock!
And of course, the Chargers will have to move the ball somehow against the Broncos. Like most teams, this will likely take the form of throwing to running backs and tight ends – creating a good spot for Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates.
Because I do not want to end this article talking about Antonio Gates, I’ll add this:
Thanks for hanging out this week.
I’ll see you back here next week – same time, same place.
And in between time, I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend – where we’ll all be hanging out together, a step to the left of center.