Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 22nd

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-04-23 01:51:31

Today is the first time we’re forced to consider an entire 15-game slate as there’s previously always been one at least one afternoon game. We won’t have time to drop a couple hundred words on a single pitcher like yesterday with Keuchel (I hope it helped) and won’t be telling you why some pitchers are being passed on today, there’s plan remains to provide as much quality information as possible.

New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again. Park factors were supposed to be updated last week, but Seamheads.com still seems to be behind, so I think we’re officially now searching for another option before the end of the month, which I’m not all that happy about because I really liked the three year thing they did.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Editor’s Note: Felix Hernandez scratched; Hisashi Iwakuma to start in his place.

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Aaron Nola pitched well in two starts against weak offenses (14 IP – 5 ER – 2 HR – 0 BB – 17 K) before being blasted by Washington last time out. Since his entire career is just under 100 innings at this point we can take it in all together and see that he has an exceptional 17.5 K-BB% for a pitcher not yet two years removed from the draft with both numbers going in the right direction so far this year. The overall contact is average stuff (1.37 GB/FB, 9.7 Hard-Soft%), but he has shown a bit of a HR problem (15.4 HR/FB), though he’s still not yet even 100 fly balls into his career, so we can’t judge too harshly. Yet we also have to remember he plays in a power friendly park too. The Brewers strike out and hit for power, but also have walked a fair bit and are probably a slightly unfavorable matchup considering their even more positive run environment.

Aaron Sanchez has walked seven of 51 after putting a zero in the BB column initially. However, he’s finished six innings with at least five Ks in every start with one ER allowed in each. Further, having not yet stepped out of a tough AL East (though easier when you don’t have to face Toronto), the contact management has been remarkable (59.2 GB%, 18.4 Hard% – both matching last year’s rates). Overall, the walk rate and SwStr% are a bit of a concern (read below), but if he can bring those to even average and continue to induce the type of contact he has, he could live up to his prospect status. The HR rate is a bit high, but less of an issue when you’re fly ball rate is under 25%. The A’s are coming off a sweep of the Yankees in NY, but mostly because the Yankees stopped hitting. They have a few bats that handle RH pitching well and few offenses provide very favorable spots in Toronto, but it’s not a matchup to fear.

Andrew Cashner has surface numbers that look much worse than the peripherals. He’s walked either one or two with exactly five strikeouts in all three starts. He’s been getting fewer ground balls, but has a 0.0 Hard-Soft% so far, making the high BABIP even odder. There’s been no change in velocity, though there has been a sizable drop in SwStr%, though not worrisome yet. His pitch mix looks very different from last season according to Brooks Baseball with differing frequencies on five pitches, though more fastballs in total than ever, which could explain the SwStr% drop. He’s been very good at home since last season, striking out a quarter of the batters he’s faced and keeping the ball in the park (6.3 HR/FB), unlike other San Diego pitchers. The Cardinals are a solid offense against RHP and have been hitting the ball well, but they could see somewhat of a neutralizing effect in a tough park.

Collin McHugh has struck out 11 of 56 batters with just one walk since his disaster against the Yankees. It’s more impressive when you know he did those things against KC and DET. Only eight of the 48 batted balls against him have been hit hard, which matches his LD% with just one HR. His ERA is still trying to work off that mess in NY where he lasted less than an inning. Otherwise, he’s certainly looked better since and his SwStr (10.3%) matches last year exactly. Boston is not entirely a favorable matchup, but have been slumping, while McHugh has pitched well at home, suppressing hard contact (-1.2 Hard-Soft%) since last season.

Felix Hernandez has shown some very troubling signs, including his ability to find the strike zone and further velocity loss. He’s been dropping in velocity for years, but handles it well because his changeup is so good he can get swings and misses even if they know it’s coming and there’s not separation from his fastball. His 11.7 SwStr% is the 2nd highest of his career. While that’s one main reason I’m considering sticking with him today, the second is that he seems to have a really good matchup. The Angels have been terrible vs RHP. They’re not striking out much, but have just a 2.6 HR/FB and -2.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.

Gio Gonzalez has pitched well through two starts (13 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 12 K) against two of the worst offenses in baseball (ATL, PHI). He seems to have ditched the ground ball approach (0.81 GB/FB) and gone back to trying to get swings and misses (11.3 SwStr% – career high, but let’s wait until he faces some real teams). This seems to be the approach that works best for him and importantly, he’s throwing more strikes, which should allow him to go more than five innings he’s averaged the last two years consistently. Brooks Baseball doesn’t show much of a change in his pitch mix, just a few more changeups in place of curveballs, but that could be opponent dependent at this point rather than a conscious shift. The Twins aren’t a great offense, but they have been hot. One concern is that they’ve taken their walks, but they’ll also swing and miss some. Gio has allowed just 19 total HRs since the 2014 season began, but it’ll be interesting to see if that will remain the case if he does indeed alter his approach.

Jon Lester has just kept on doing what he does to start the season. Everything is not totally in line and we’ll speak briefly about those things below, but strikeouts, walks, and most batted ball stuff looks fine. The results have been great. He faces the Reds, who have been solid vs LHP (20.7 HR/FB), but it’s still very early. It would seem like a fairly favorable spot here.

Jose Quintana is sort of a Lester-lite. He’s not going to over-power you (at least he didn’t used to), but he’s just going to put up solid numbers and rarely take much of a beating. He’s actually been even better than that in his first three starts this year (see SwStr chart) and gets his first chance at home now. The Rangers have hit LHP well so far, but the personal doesn’t exactly bear that out (no platoons) and the underlying numbers aren’t entirely impressive (21.9 K-BB%).
Justin Verlander looked decent for the first time in his last start, but the double digit SwStr% has been there in two of his three starts even if the velocity is down another tick on the radar gun. He is allowing a bit more hard contact than you’d like to see with a ceiling that’s more above average than All Star at his best now. Cleveland is not an offense you can find a lot to say about either way.

Matt Harvey has not looked right in any of his three starts. You may want to move on as there may be some bias here, but following the Mets more closely than any other team, it’s not that I have information others don’t have access too, but I do read more into this team than any other. He’s been good early in games and then falling apart around the 5th inning. The velocity hasn’t been completely there, but it was in March and has shown up early in starts, so I’m not entirely concerned. Additionally, PC Dan Warthen claims he’s spotted and now fixed a mechanical flaw in his delivery that he believes will right the ship. With me (maybe not with you) he (Warthen) has earned his chance (one start) to prove it. If you need additional inspiration, he still has the 9th lowest exit velocity (88.23 mph) among pitchers with at least 20 batted balls. He’s got a great matchup, which he may be even to prevail in even if not entirely fixed.

Matt Moore is a bit of a post-hype sleeper for me today in what might be a sneakily good spot. His velocity is up nearly a mile per hour and his SwStr% has been at least league average in every start, peaking at 18.3% in his last start. Equally importantly, he’s walked just three batters in three starts. The contact is still really hard (20.8 Hard-Soft%), but there are some really positive signs underneath and the Yankees have looked old. They’re still patient and could draw out his old control problems and make this look stupid, but better a lefty in Yankee Stadium than a righty (2.6 HR/FB, -2.0 HR/FB vs LHP so far).

Nicholas Tropeano is not what his ERA says, but may still be useful and a bit better than his estimators suggest. He generated 16 SwStrs in his first start, but just six in his second, but has consistently generated strikeouts in the 23-24% range through the minors with a slightly better than average BB%. He’s not a top prospect, but there seems to be a bit of talent in this arm. He hasn’t shown any special ability to suppress HRs in the minors, but the west coast parks might help him do that as I’m hoping that’s part of what might make him useful tonight against a hard hitting offense in a spacious park with a good defense behind him as a rather extreme fly ball pitcher (0.80 GB/FB) thus far.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)

Sonny Gray (.278 BABIP – 79.7 LOB% – 6.7 HR/FB) – I’m not of the mind that his situation and skill set can’t afford him the benefit of some uncommon leeway with these numbers. I really wanted to find a reason to use him today, but just not in Toronto.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Adam Wainwright looks like toast. It hurts to not even be able to consider him against San Diego, but Atlanta and Cincinnati have pummeled him. It’s probably not this bad, but I almost hope he’s injured because this could be the end of a once great pitcher if not.

Bud Norris

C.C. Sabathia has a double digit walk rate and the velocity has tanked another several miles per hour. It’s only 10.2 innings, but he was already trending down and only occasionally DFS useful when all the stars aligned last year. This might be the end for him too.

Chris Young is showing slightly increased velocity with at least a 9.7 SwStr% in every game. I mean I’m never using his skillset against a team like Baltimore, even in a big park like Kansas City, but I’m just saying it’s odd that now his BABIP is up over 100 points?

Jared Cosart

Jeff Samardzija hasn’t been all bad so far, but is still priced as if he’s a big deal and has been anything but for more than a year now.

Jon Moscot is not a highly ranked prospect in this system.

Jon Niese – Doesn’t anybody use the damn H anymore?

Jonathan Gray

Josh Tomlin pitched well, but left his first and only start with a hamstring issue less than a week ago. If he’s healed up, he could be ok and might even be better than you expect, but hamstrings are tricky (Liriano) and the matchup isn’t great.

Kyle Gibson – I’m not placing him in the “Not As Good As They Look” section because I still believe he can be good, but after two years, I’m starting to get a little sick of waiting for his K% to catch up with his SwStr%. He’s like a reverse Bartolo Colon.

Martin Perez is all discombobulated. He’s actually missing more bats, walking more batters, and is two-thirds of the way to his HR total of each of the last two (abbreviated) seasons already.

Patrick Corbin hasn’t been bad, but has been more average than spectacular and maybe that’s more what he is than the double digit SwStr% we’ve seen for his last 300 innings previous to this season, though I’m not ready to concede that yet. However, he’s a tough sell at home in a not particularly great spot. This is the pitcher on this list you’re most likely to change my mind on if you tried, so don’t change yours if you feel differently before reading this. With 30 pitchers to separate and file it’s entirely possible I’ve missed a few things today.

Scott Kazmir probably lands without Colorado as an excuse.

Steven Wright was a name I expected to much more quickly pass on than I actually did. He’s missing bats and has confounded the Blue Jays in both starts. However, he doesn’t have a history of such and I don’t know that I want to push my luck with an inexperienced knuckleballer in Houston. The cost is low though for those with more risk tolerance and he’s bound to have next to no ownership so if you see something to suggest the Astros might have more trouble than expected with the knuckler…???

Yovani Gallardo – I should just tattoo his name in this section because I find it hard to see a scenario where he’ll move from it.

Zachary Davies – I really looked for something positively interesting here, but couldn’t find it. Maybe you’ll have better luck because it’s a favorable matchup even in a tough park. His only start was a disaster. According to his fangraphs organizational prospect ranking (10th) he has some decent pitches, but his mistakes are often destroyed at under 90 mph. Although, he did eclipse crack that mark in his first start. I’ve probably convinced myself to toss in one GPP Davies/Wright/Coors stack.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Aaron Nola – You’re probably barking up the wrong tree if you’re expecting him to hold a 30% strikeout rate, but he’s had a SwStr above 8% in all three starts, higher than last year, so a 25 K% might not be out of the question, but I’d like to see him face some tougher offenses first.

Aaron Sanchez had a double digit SwStr% against the high strikeout team (TB), but was well below 7% against the next two opponents (BOS, NYY). He throws a hard sinker over 60% of the time which is great for ground balls, but less so for whiffs. He doesn’t really have a dominant swing and miss pitch, though his gets about 15%.

Andrew Cashner – It’s just a theory, but I’m selling more on the SwStr% than the K%, considering this might be a pitch choice thing more than a decline in stuff. It’s not much, but he should be able to get the SwStr back to the 8% mark he’s been the last three seasons, which would signify a smaller drop in K%.

Collin McHugh has used three very different starts (4.7 – 8.8 – 14.3 SwStr%) to get to exactly the same mark he had last year (10.3 SwStr%). He should be about a league average strikeout pitcher.

Jon Lester has experienced a dip in SwStr%, but it’s not too severe and he’s just coming off a 13.1% game. This is a stat that can fluctuate from game to game and small movements overall shouldn’t be concerning for a while.

Matt Harvey – Yeah, he has consistently not missed bats at above a league average rate in any start yet.

Nicholas Tropeano – I’d lean more on his minor league track record and disregard two starkly different SwStr rates in two starts this season at this point.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

None of this stuff yet means much after two or even three starts, but there are a few interesting tidbits.

Aaron Nola has had one bad start despite allowing at least four runs in two. He’s stranded just 50.6% of his runners. He might hold a higher than normal HR rate in that park and could have issues keeping it in the yard tonight.

Aaron Sanchez with a .170 BABIP and 91.6 LOB%. Weak ground balls are awesome, but nobody can throw them often enough to maintain a sub-.200 BABIP. Look for that to jump about 100 points and his K% to likely decrease. I’m sure the Blue Jays would sign for something in the three and a half range this year.

Andrew Cashner seems to be getting BABIPed and is only stranding 63.1% of runners. The contact has been weaker so far, but his Hard% has generally been around 30% (10 points higher) each of the last three years.

Collin McHugh is still working off his horrendous first start.

Felix Hernandez – The BABIP is not going to remain that low, the strand rate (82.6%) is going to tumble, and eventually there will be HRs, but he’s still missing bats and is in a good spot tonight.

Gio Gonzalez has a .182 BABIP and has stranded all runners so far.

Justin Verlander hadn’t pitched well until his most recent start, but all of his ERA gap factors (BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB) are out of whack early on as well as an elevated BB%.

Matt Harvey has suffered from big inning syndrome, bunching hits and stranding just 58.6% of runners. The BABIP has been elevated too, but the Mets planned their defense around not expecting anybody to actually hit the ball.

Nicholas Tropeano has not allowed a HR yet and stranded 93.3% of runners.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Jose Quintana has countered his high BABIP by not allowing a HR yet. The LD% needs to regress, but the rest of it looks great.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

We’re still just talking a bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags in no particular order until we get a bit more information about 2016. We’ll probably return to last year’s format after one more turn through the rotation.

Aaron Nola carries some risk in the HR department tonight, but could also generate one of the higher strikeout rates of the night. He hasn’t shown a propensity to walk batters so if he can keep the bases clean, a solo HR or two shouldn’t be a problem with strikeouts preceding and following. There is some discrepancy in his price, but although you’d prefer him on FanDuel ($6.7K), don’t feel the need to avoid him on DraftKings ($8.3K).

Aaron Sanchez – The stuff looks good, he’s in a decent spot, and he’s very affordable. While the hope is that he’ll develop and utilize a strikeout pitch, if he can even get to average in the K & BB departments, there’s good things to come. Ground balls don’t leave the park.

Andrew Cashner is sort of a borderline option for me. He’s kind of the guy I’m not going to build around or even look for, but I wouldn’t look to change a lineup I liked if he was the only pitcher who fit in my only remaining slot. I’ll likely have very little exposure, but don’t really mind him. He’d be a classic Tier Four pitcher (more or less accurately priced) from last year.

Collin McHugh is in Cashner territory. I’m not reaching for him, but I’m not throwing the whole meal out if he lands in my plate. I should also mention that a velocity loss here is less concerning because of how infrequently he even throws a normal fastball.

Felix Hernandez is the highest priced pitcher of the day. This is much riskier than it looks from his ERA. I’d easily pass in probably even neutral matchups, but he’s in a good spot against a struggling offense and is still missing bats at a high rate. I certainly don’t have the confidence in him that you usually do in a pitcher at this price, but, as you’ll see, there are many issues with tonight’s top priced pitchers.

Gio Gonzalez is not cheap, but has looked good (albeit against weak teams) early on and is throwing strikes. He should be in a decent enough spot at home today to continue the good work, but there’s still a chance that he could return to [expletive] Gio and be gone by the fifth.

Jon Lester seems to be as safe as it gets (not that anything in baseball is ever safe). His SwStr% and BABIP are a bit off and may see some adjustment, but everything mostly seems to be in line. He’s not a huge upside guy, but is generally consistently very good.

Justin Verlander is another meal (Cashner, McHugh) that I’m neither excited about nor throwing out at this price. If it appears on the plate, fine. If it doesn’t, fine.

Matt Harvey may or may not be fixed according to the Mets. If he is, you may gain the benefit of others being soured on him even in a great spot. If not, well, this is his last opportunity in my mind. Maybe he’s already reached that point with you. I don’t know. I’ve already admitted to being biased. I’m not saying he’ll be low owned with this cast of characters even on a full slate, but he might be lower owned than usual against a bottom offense.

Matt Moore – Maybe I’m behind and the general public recalls his prospect hype and have already jumped back on this bandwagon. If not, or even if so, the stuff seems stronger, the command appears improved, the spot may be better than perceived, and the cost is affordable. I believe I’ll have more GPP (or even cash game) exposure than any other pitcher. A Lester/Moore combination immediately stands out on DraftKings.

Nicholas Tropeano is not a great upside play or potential sleeper or anything spectacular really, but among those in his price range, he seems to be the best option to potentially eek out something useful tonight. Though I’ve since become slightly more intrigued with Wright and Davies since writing this, but probably not enough to actually act on it.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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