Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, July 10th
One quick note and unimportant, but necessary note to get to before we start today. Friday’s scheduled starter for the Rockies entered Thursday night’s game as I was in preparation for today. At first this was frustrating because Colorado now had a TBD for a starter, but then I remembered that nobody cares about Colorado pitching and all was well again. You just want to know if it’s a left or a right-handed beating.
Happy All-Star week off to all and we’ll see you back here next Friday when baseball resumes.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -12 | 4.16 | 5.4 | 1.84 | 1.05 | 3.47 | 3.73 | CHC | 82 | 103 | 68 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 20.8% | 14.2% | 8.6% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.4 | 4.01 | 5.71 | 1.19 | 0.88 | 4.05 | 5 | NYM | 98 | 84 | 82 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 21.3% | 10.6% | 8.9% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.1 | 4.17 | 6.03 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 4.27 | 3.37 | WAS | 103 | 98 | 74 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 18.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | -3.8 | 3.74 | 6.21 | 1.44 | 1.07 | 3.63 | 3.01 | NYY | 88 | 107 | 90 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 19.4% | 8.6% | 11.2% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | -2.4 | 3.26 | 6.85 | 1.42 | 0.87 | 3.32 | 2.65 | SFO | 101 | 96 | 33 | 22.2% | 5.8% | 18.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -3.9 | 3.54 | 6.09 | 1.24 | 0.94 | 3.51 | 4.32 | TAM | 100 | 92 | 107 | 20.8% | 7.5% | 20.5% | 7.9% | 11.3% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 12.4 | 4.44 | 5.39 | 0.83 | 1.04 | 4.78 | 5.11 | TOR | 96 | 132 | 77 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 20.4% | 10.3% | 15.0% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -5.1 | 3.03 | 5.6 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 3.21 | 4.04 | OAK | 96 | 105 | 71 | 21.7% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 5.2 | 4.21 | 5.8 | 1.24 | 1.01 | 3.87 | 3.54 | CIN | 85 | 94 | 75 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 7.1% | 12.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 12.9 | 4.23 | 5.11 | 1.12 | 0.94 | 4.61 | 3.94 | HOU | 99 | 104 | 89 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 19.7% | 12.4% | 11.3% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3 | 3.77 | 6.32 | 1.34 | 1.05 | 3.52 | 3.45 | DET | 110 | 110 | 166 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 8.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -5.5 | 3.09 | 6.34 | 1.77 | 0.91 | 2.99 | 2.7 | STL | 93 | 103 | 59 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 21.9% | 7.6% | 12.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -3.4 | 3.58 | 5.91 | 1.5 | 1.04 | 3.52 | 3.01 | BAL | 111 | 95 | 71 | 22.8% | 6.0% | 18.2% | 10.7% | 7.0% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 1.9 | 4.39 | 5.46 | 0.63 | 0.85 | 4.41 | 4.31 | SEA | 98 | 94 | 129 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 19.0% | 9.4% | 11.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -13.3 | 3.68 | 5.81 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 3.52 | 3.92 | TEX | 96 | 99 | 61 | 20.1% | 6.3% | 21.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.4 | 3.9 | 5.83 | 1.56 | 0.89 | 4.31 | 3.94 | LOS | 124 | 120 | 107 | 18.6% | 8.3% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 7.6% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 5.1 | 4.14 | 6.44 | 0.9 | 1.05 | 3.83 | 5.48 | MIN | 107 | 91 | 105 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 20.5% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -8.1 | 4.32 | 5.92 | 1.74 | 0.94 | 3.84 | 5.31 | CLE | 110 | 96 | 80 | 15.9% | 8.4% | 23.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 5.4 | 3.73 | 5.93 | 1.49 | 1.05 | 3.24 | 2.96 | CHW | 83 | 85 | 87 | 20.2% | 4.9% | 19.4% | 7.3% | 10.3% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 5.7 | 3.74 | 6.11 | 1.25 | 0.91 | 3.58 | 3.62 | PIT | 98 | 95 | 62 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 6.9% | 9.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.5 | 3.09 | 6.57 | 1.27 | 0.87 | 2.9 | 3.43 | PHI | 80 | 95 | 91 | 23.3% | 6.2% | 22.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.9 | 3.8 | 6.03 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 4.37 | 6.42 | KAN | 107 | 105 | 134 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | -4.8 | 4.29 | 7.14 | 1.29 | 0.85 | 4.08 | 4.46 | ANA | 100 | 98 | 168 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 19.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -5.2 | 3 | 6.07 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 2.95 | 2.03 | BOS | 105 | 101 | 100 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 19.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 5.7 | 3.46 | 5.53 | 2.12 | 0.89 | 3.05 | 3.16 | MIL | 92 | 92 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.1% | 19.4% | 10.2% | 6.4% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 1.2 | 3.81 | 6.32 | 1.96 | 1.01 | 3.77 | 3.78 | FLA | 87 | 81 | 62 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 23.7% | 13.0% | 5.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.2 | 3.12 | 5.82 | 1.4 | 0.88 | 3.17 | 3.24 | ARI | 98 | 96 | 128 | 21.5% | 6.3% | 21.1% | 8.5% | 11.9% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -2.1 | 4.34 | 5.87 | 1.14 | 1.4 | 4.24 | 2.69 | COL | 95 | 96 | 98 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 3.7 | 4.32 | 5.26 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 4.7 | 4.68 | SDG | 84 | 88 | 57 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 22.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% |
Chase Anderson has had a serious meeting with regression over his last three starts, allowing seven of his 10 HRs on the season, including three in San Diego. With a 13.6 HR/FB last year and pitching for Arizona, we knew this was coming, but what wasn’t expected was his total inability to miss bats over the last month. His strikeout rate for the season is now down to 15.2%, though he did have five in his last start. If that’s the bad news, here’s some good: his walk rate is down to 5.8%, allowing him to maintain a near 10 K-BB% despite the sharp drop in Ks. Here’s some more good news. He gets a big upgrade in park facing the Mets in NY. The Mets have just a single HR over the last 10 games and the 3rd worst offense vs RHP (7.5 HR/FB).
Chris Tillman has struck out 10 of his last 49 batters giving him an 18.4 K-BB% over his last two starts and that’s about all the good we can say about him as he shows up with a 6.0 K-BB% for the year, although his contact authority rates (8.8 Hard-Soft%) aren’t too bad and he does have just a 7.0 HR/FB at home since last season. I mention that because he faces a very mediocre and currently cold Washington offense at home tonight, which sets up as a neutral park adjusted matchup. Their biggest strength is power (13.1 HR/FB on the road, 12.6 HR/FB vs RHP).
Clay Buchholz has gone at least seven innings with exactly one ER in three straight starts and may be pitching the best ball of his career now that he’s finally healthy. His 17.9 K-BB% is a career best and he’s doing a great job managing contact as well (4.4 Hard-Soft%). It’s not the easiest matchup against the Yankees tonight, but they’ve struggled on the road and Boston isn’t very friendly to LH power. In fact, Buchholz has just a 7.4 HR/FB at home since last season and hasn’t allowed any HRs in his last eight starts. That said, the left-handed bats of the Yankees do hit RHP very well and can do other things than just hit HRs over the short RF porch at home and the park plays in favor of offense overall.
Cole Hamels is someone I often mention as a very good, but not great pitcher, a solid #2 on any staff. His ERA and all of his estimators are just above three now for the season. He’s coming off two very strong starts and now gets a great park to pitch in against an ice cold offense and hasn’t allowed a HR in just over a month. In fact, he has a 5.3 HR/FB away from Philadelphia since the start of last season. The Giants have a 19.0 K-BB% over the last week offensively with a 4.3 HR/FB. They set up as one of the top park adjusted matchups of the night.
Collin McHugh hasn’t been able to repeat his 25.4 K% from last season, but still has a double digit SwStr% despite an 18.6 K%. The one thing he has been able to repeat though, is some strong contact management skills with a 27.3 Hard% nearly identical to last year. He was coming off two quality starts before being roughed up in Boston last time out, but seems to be in a bit better of a spot here in a bigger park than he usually pitches in against a team with limited power. In fact, McHugh has only allowed one of his 13 HRs in his four starts in parks with a negative run factor this year and only one of those starts has come since May 7th. The Rays are a decent overall offense, but not as good vs RHP, representing a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup. They strike out 23.5% at home.
Danny Salazar is a guy you generally look to more for strikeouts than run prevention and that’s fine in daily fantasy baseball, but he’s now failed to last even five innings in three of his last four starts with just two strikeouts the one time he did and today he gets Oakland who strike out just 17.6% vs RHP. He should still generate a solid strikeout rate and be in the running for top K% of the night, but that’s mostly because nobody looks to be really elite in that category tonight. Oakland does hit RHP well, but park adjusts down to a favorable overall matchup here.
David Phelps rarely gets the full treatment here and for good reason. He combines and 18.2 Hard-Soft% with a 4.3 SwStr% to somehow get enough outs to generate an ERA and estimators right around four. His last two appearances have been in relief, but he hasn’t allowed a hit to 15 batters, striking out three. The real interest lies in the opposition. The Reds struggle on the road and aren’t much better vs RHP. They just aren’t very good in situations where the power in the middle of the order can’t play up and the park in Miami should be one of those situations.
Erasmo Ramirez is one of our sneaky contenders for top K% of the night, though I guess it’s never too sneaky facing the Astros. He has a perfectly average 20.2 K% and 11.9 K-BB% for the season, but Houston strikes out 24.3% on the road, 25.6% vs RHP, and 23.8% over the last week and there is even more hope in his SwStr%. Ramirez does have a 30.9 Hard%, which could be problematic against Houston’s 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP, but the park should serve him well here.
Ervin Santana impressively struck out eight of 29 Royals, lasting eight full innings in his debut. I guess he has a lot of innings to make up for. He faces a really tough offense that you wouldn’t know is missing their best hitter right now. They represent the toughest park adjusted matchup outside of Colorado tonight. They have an 18.6 HR/FB over the last week that includes a series in Seattle.
Gerrit Cole matches up with a cold St Louis offense in Pittsburgh. Cole has been more average than great over the last month (3.62 ERA and estimators, 20.6 K%), but still has only allowed more than three ERs in one start this year and has a 2.99 xFIP at home since last season. The Cardinals haven’t been hitting well, as mentioned, and struggle on the road, giving Cole one of the better park adjusted matchups and potentially one of the top strikeout rates tonight.
Gio Gonzalez faces a tough Baltimore offense in a tough park, but his 2.58 GB/FB is double his mark over the last two years and he combines that with a solid HR/FB throughout his career to almost never let the ball leave the park anymore. It hasn’t served him that well overall because his strikeout rate is now just average without cutting down on the walks, but the ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the park will serve him well here against a team with a 15.6 HR/FB at home. They represent about a neutral matchup here and will swing and miss, including a 24.2 K% over the last week. Due to the opposition, I have Gonzalez in the running for top K% tonight.
Lance Lynn may have superpowers at home, but is still essentially at least league average on the road, the biggest difference being in a closer to league average HR rate. He’s been pitching well and gets another great park against a mediocre offense that’s been struggling. Lynn’s 2.4 Hard-Soft% should help him keep the ball in the park here in a good park adjusted matchup.
Madison Bumgarner caught a beating in his last start in Washington, but had strung together four high quality ones previously and is the cream of the crop in a home matchup against the Phillies tonight. He actually compares very favorably to Cole Hamels this year across the board with the biggest difference being that he pitches in a much better park. The Phillies are now the 3rd worst road offense (they’re improving) with just a 6.0 HR/FB away from home and a -0.2 Hard-Soft% vs LHP. The high HR/FB in the main chart stems mostly from the three Bumgarner has allowed over the last two starts. The Phils represent one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight and Bumgarner would be my pick for top K% tonight by a narrow margin.
Michael Pineda generally does the exact opposite of whatever I write, so let’s just start there. His peripherals are dominant as has his performance been on occasion. Consider that in three of his last five starts, he’s allowed a total of three ERs with 27 strikeouts. In the other two, he struck out a total of two with 13 ERs and one of the bad ones was against the Phillies. I’m going to take his 22.2 K-BB% this year and lean good again, but Boston (16.3 K% vs RHP) should pull his K% down towards a more league average mark. They are not a favorable park adjusted matchup.
Mike Bolsinger had a rough outing last time out and hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last five starts. He’s facing a hot offense with an 18.2 HR/FB over the last week, but one that has been below average for the season in a good park. Milwaukee leans heavily right handed and Bolsinger, when he’s struggled, it’s generally been against LH bats.
Mike Leake doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts and does have a HR problem (14.0 career HR/FB), but it’s mitigated a bit by a high ground ball rate and he pitches in a tough home park. This would seem like a great spot for him against the 2nd worst offense against RHP and an ice cold team overall. The Marlins have a 23.0 K% and -0.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Facing a cold offense in a big park without their top power hitter should bode well for him here.
Noah Syndergaard dominated the Dodgers in his last start and now returns home to face a lesser offense. He’s allowed exactly one ER in three of his last four starts and has a 19.6 K-BB% in five home starts, while exhibiting strong contact management skills on the season (3.5 Hard-Soft%). The Diamondbacks have been hitting well, but are really an average offense overall in just about every way you can find and receive a park adjustment in the pitcher’s favor tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Hector Santiago (.234 BABIP – 89.0 LOB% – 8.8 HR/FB)
Kendall Graveman (.289 BABIP – 81.4 LOB% – 11.0 HR/FB) – I know this is the most likely placement to draw comments, especially after going at least seven innings in each of his last six starts with two ERs or less, but he’s stranded 100% of his runners in five of those six and has a total of eight strikeouts over his last three starts. He has just a 6.4 K-BB%, which probably won’t improve against Cleveland.
Mike Montgomery (.221 BABIP – 86.6 LOB% – 3.9 HR/FB)
Shelby Miller (.258 BABIP – 80.0 LOB% – 5.3 HR/FB) – He’s also in Colorado tonight.
Marco Estrada (.242 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 9.2 HR/FB) – He’s struck out just four of his last 36 batters and has one of the lowest projected strikeout rates tonight due to Kansas City (14.5 K% at home, 16.2% vs RHP)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ian Kennedy is the only pitcher with an above average projected K% that I’m not talking about today, but it’s barely above average and I don’t like the spot he’s in against a lot of LH power that should play better than they have against RHP. His tendency for HRs could play up here. Texas isn’t the park it used to be for LH power, but it’s not Petco either. Kennedy is essentially my cutoff.
Danny Duffy is lucky this game is not in Toronto at least.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 22.6% | 12.8% | Road | 22.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 14.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 18.7% | 7.2% | Road | 17.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 18.6% | 8.0% | Home | 17.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 2.0% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.6% | 6.6% | Home | 19.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 23.9% | 6.4% | Road | 24.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 1.9% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.4% | 6.0% | Road | 20.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 18.3% | 9.5% | Home | 17.4% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 27.7% | 7.1% | Home | 26.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 17.6% | 8.2% | Home | 19.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 18.5% | 8.8% | Home | 19.5% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 20.6% | 7.5% | Home | 22.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 10.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 24.6% | 6.5% | Home | 24.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 1.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.2% | 8.6% | Road | 23.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 19.8% | 9.5% | Road | 20.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.0% | 8.4% | Road | 23.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 2.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.0% | 7.7% | Road | 17.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 18.6% | 7.6% | Road | 19.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 12.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 14.2% | 7.0% | Road | 16.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 17.6% | 4.6% | Home | 19.6% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 4.2% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.1% | 8.5% | Road | 23.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 10.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 25.0% | 5.6% | Home | 26.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 21.4% | 7.1% | Road | 20.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.9% |
| Mike Montgomery | Mariners | 16.1% | 6.7% | Home | 15.9% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 23.3% | 2.8% | Road | 22.0% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 1.8% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 21.6% | 8.0% | Home | 21.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 16.7% | 6.2% | Road | 14.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 24.2% | 4.9% | Home | 22.7% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 3.9% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.1% | 9.2% | Road | 18.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.3% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 17.4% | 8.2% | Home | 13.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 23.9% | 9.2% | LH | 21.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.9% |
| Mets | Home | 19.4% | 8.4% | RH | 20.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.0% | 8.1% | RH | 18.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 13.4% |
| Giants | Home | 17.9% | 7.5% | LH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 4.0% |
| Rays | Home | 23.5% | 7.3% | RH | 21.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.6% | 7.4% | LH | 17.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.1% | 8.2% | RH | 17.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 4.2% |
| Braves | Road | 18.2% | 7.0% | RH | 17.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.2% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 7.3% | RH | 18.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.7% | 4.6% |
| Astros | Road | 24.3% | 7.1% | RH | 25.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.4% | 7.8% | RH | 19.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 7.5% | RH | 19.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.8% | 6.7% | LH | 21.2% | 5.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.9% | 8.0% | LH | 20.2% | 5.6% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.9% | 7.9% | RH | 20.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 15.2% | 4.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.5% | 8.7% | RH | 19.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Twins | Home | 18.6% | 6.6% | RH | 20.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.4% |
| Indians | Home | 18.9% | 10.3% | RH | 18.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.3% | 5.5% | RH | 19.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 4.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.9% | 7.1% | RH | 19.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.2% | 5.9% | LH | 20.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.0% |
| Royals | Home | 14.5% | 6.7% | RH | 16.2% | 6.0% | L7Days | 15.3% | 7.8% |
| Angels | Road | 18.2% | 7.9% | LH | 19.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 13.5% | 9.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 8.3% | RH | 16.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.5% | 11.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.3% | 6.0% | RH | 20.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 15.9% | 11.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.8% | 7.0% | RH | 20.6% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 10.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.5% | 6.8% | RH | 19.4% | 6.0% | L7Days | 17.5% | 5.7% |
| Padres | Road | 22.1% | 7.5% | LH | 24.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 24.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | Road | 22.0% | 12.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 23.3% | 11.8% | 9.0% | Road | 25.1% | 12.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 21.1% | 5.3% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 20.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | Home | 20.5% | 7.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | Home | 22.6% | 7.4% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 21.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | Road | 19.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 22.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | Road | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.7% | 6.2% | 13.1% | Home | 23.0% | 5.4% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 22.2% | 12.4% | 11.3% | Home | 20.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 23.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | Home | 22.8% | 6.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.4% | 12.3% | 7.5% | Home | 21.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 23.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | Home | 22.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 21.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | Home | 21.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | Road | 18.5% | 9.6% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 5.6% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.6% | 8.3% | 13.1% | Road | 19.9% | 8.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 22.7% | 12.1% | 8.4% | Road | 22.8% | 8.2% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.4% | 11.2% | 9.4% | Road | 19.9% | 6.5% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.5% | 8.1% | 12.4% | Road | 23.6% | 9.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 23.4% | 10.8% | 6.8% | Road | 22.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.6% | 7.6% | 11.2% | Home | 18.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 20.5% | 7.0% | 10.9% | Road | 22.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% | 21.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.2% | 9.4% | 13.0% | Home | 24.3% | 9.6% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 17.6% | 11.0% | 13.0% | Road | 16.3% | 12.6% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Mike Montgomery | Mariners | 20.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | Home | 19.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 19.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | Road | 20.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 19.7% | 11.1% | 3.3% | Home | 17.6% | 11.9% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 22.4% | 14.3% | 6.3% | Road | 21.1% | 14.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 21.0% | 9.1% | 12.7% | Home | 19.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% | Road | 16.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 21.2% | 14.5% | 8.1% | Home | 21.3% | 13.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 21.1% | 8.6% | 11.9% | LH | 23.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 16.0% | 4.7% | 7.8% |
| Mets | Home | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | RH | 22.7% | 7.5% | 11.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 1.7% | 6.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.4% | 13.1% | 9.2% | RH | 20.8% | 12.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 14.3% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | RH | 21.2% | 13.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 13.0% | 14.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | LH | 21.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | L7Days | 15.6% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Rays | Home | 21.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | RH | 21.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.0% | 11.4% | 15.0% | LH | 21.2% | 13.8% | 18.1% | L7Days | 15.8% | 11.7% | 20.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.1% | 11.1% | 8.4% | RH | 21.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.3% | 16.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | RH | 21.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 21.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Reds | Road | 20.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | RH | 21.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.2% | 12.3% |
| Astros | Road | 22.8% | 12.2% | 11.3% | RH | 20.6% | 15.3% | 11.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.7% | 13.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 12.0% | 5.8% | RH | 21.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.6% | 18.6% | 5.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.1% | 10.8% | 11.4% | RH | 22.5% | 9.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 5.0% | 11.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.9% | 15.6% | 7.8% | LH | 22.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.3% | 14.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.7% | 11.1% | 8.7% | LH | 18.4% | 13.7% | 13.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 14.9% | 13.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | RH | 18.1% | 11.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 5.9% | 11.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.4% | 14.4% | 8.0% | RH | 21.5% | 15.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.6% | 13.2% | 7.4% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 11.2% | 11.0% | RH | 20.7% | 9.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Indians | Home | 23.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | RH | 20.9% | 10.2% | 11.5% | L7Days | 28.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | RH | 21.3% | 9.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.2% | 9.6% | 5.1% | RH | 21.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.1% | 6.0% | 9.7% | LH | 22.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| Royals | Home | 21.5% | 7.1% | 9.6% | RH | 21.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.9% | 4.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.5% | 11.6% | 8.1% | LH | 18.4% | 11.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 18.7% | 16.2% | 13.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% | RH | 20.3% | 9.7% | 12.0% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | RH | 21.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 18.2% | 3.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | RH | 20.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.1% | 2.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | RH | 21.1% | 10.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.5% | 12.5% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 13.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% |
| Padres | Road | 20.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | LH | 22.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.0% | 16.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.15 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 2.03 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 15.2% | 7.1% | 2.14 | 10.6% | 5.5% | 1.93 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 16.2% | 7.3% | 2.22 | 15.0% | 6.6% | 2.27 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 23.0% | 10.7% | 2.15 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.27 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 25.4% | 13.4% | 1.90 | 25.9% | 13.7% | 1.89 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 18.6% | 10.2% | 1.82 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.86 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 16.4% | 6.5% | 2.52 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.07 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 28.9% | 12.8% | 2.26 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.94 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 16.0% | 4.3% | 3.72 | 17.0% | 3.9% | 4.36 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 20.2% | 12.7% | 1.59 | 19.6% | 11.9% | 1.65 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 27.6% | 11.8% | 2.34 | 27.6% | 11.8% | 2.34 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 25.5% | 9.8% | 2.60 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 2.22 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.5% | 8.6% | 2.38 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.00 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.53 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 2.85 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.12 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 2.29 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.3% | 10.4% | 1.86 | 12.6% | 7.2% | 1.75 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 11.4% | 7.0% | 1.63 | 11.4% | 7.0% | 1.63 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 13.8% | 7.4% | 1.86 | 15.1% | 8.6% | 1.76 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.1% | 7.2% | 2.79 | 20.7% | 7.6% | 2.72 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 25.1% | 9.4% | 2.67 | 26.3% | 7.6% | 3.46 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 25.0% | 12.1% | 2.07 | 30.0% | 14.3% | 2.10 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 20.1% | 10.8% | 1.86 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 1.96 |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | 16.1% | 7.7% | 2.09 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 2.18 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 25.4% | 12.2% | 2.08 | 23.4% | 14.1% | 1.66 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 22.9% | 8.4% | 2.73 | 25.0% | 7.4% | 3.38 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 15.4% | 6.4% | 2.41 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 2.27 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 24.2% | 10.2% | 2.37 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 1.78 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 20.0% | 8.8% | 2.27 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 2.58 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 17.9% | 6.0% | 2.98 | 15.4% | 6.1% | 2.52 |
David Phelps – I call attention to his complete inability to generate swinging strikes, but have no idea how he’s turning it into a nearly respectable strikeout rate. The Marlins, aside from Jeff Mathis, have been below average pitch framers. Theoretically, his K% should drop off a cliff.
Erasmo Ramirez had his lowest StrStr rate (7.1%) in a start this year last time out, striking out just three of 25 Yankees. He’s been below 9.9% in just one of his other 11 starts. The Rays have had a solid catching corps in terms of framing pitches according to StatCorner.com, so there seems to be some other issue at play here and maybe it’s the walk rate, as he’s failing to get to strike three before ball four too often? Perhaps if he can improve on that, he can realize the potential in his SwStr%, but that’s just a guess.
Lance Lynn has masked a drop in SwStr% over the last month with even a slight increase to his K%. He’s had only three starts, but has had either a 7.6% or 7.7% in each after being higher than that in all but one start this season until the one right before he missed two weeks prior to these three. It makes you wonder if he’s hurt, but there’s no corresponding drop in velocity, so we’ll just mark it as something to watch with interest tonight and after the all-star break.
Michael Pineda – From the initial paragraph above, we know that this is result of a roller coaster of starts over the last month. His outing against the Phillies was terrible in every way, including a 6.6 SwStr% without a single strikeout, but he was above 11% in each of the other four including when he struck out just two Orioles.
Mike Bolsinger – There is some concern that he’ll be able to maintain an above average K% with a below average ability to miss bats. His overall SwStr% was essentially the same last year with an exactly league average K rate. This year, he has an elite framer in Grandal (+12.1 RAA is 2nd in the majors), so that could explain the increase, but he’s on the edge of what’s acceptable now and I’m definitely not buying a rise in K% over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.18 | 4.16 | -0.02 | 3.85 | -0.33 | 3.68 | -0.5 | 5.61 | 3.63 | -1.98 | 3.26 | -2.35 | 4.13 | -1.48 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 3.71 | 4.31 | 0.6 | 4.22 | 0.51 | 4.08 | 0.37 | 4.99 | 5.12 | 0.13 | 4.98 | -0.01 | 6.18 | 1.19 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.57 | 4.79 | -0.78 | 4.83 | -0.74 | 4.59 | -0.98 | 5.47 | 4.57 | -0.9 | 4.71 | -0.76 | 4.09 | -1.38 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 3.27 | 3.17 | -0.1 | 3.15 | -0.12 | 2.54 | -0.73 | 1.7 | 3.09 | 1.39 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.86 | 0.16 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 3.02 | 3.22 | 0.2 | 3.19 | 0.17 | 3.33 | 0.31 | 2.42 | 2.62 | 0.2 | 2.71 | 0.29 | 1.85 | -0.57 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.54 | 3.89 | -0.65 | 3.98 | -0.56 | 4.02 | -0.52 | 5.04 | 4.51 | -0.53 | 4.67 | -0.37 | 4.17 | -0.87 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.14 | 4.71 | -0.43 | 4.6 | -0.54 | 4.4 | -0.74 | 3.57 | 4.57 | 1 | 4.26 | 0.69 | 4.16 | 0.59 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.1 | 2.87 | -1.23 | 2.96 | -1.14 | 3.52 | -0.58 | 5.4 | 3.59 | -1.81 | 3.69 | -1.71 | 3.86 | -1.54 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 4.03 | 4.23 | 0.2 | 4.17 | 0.14 | 3.77 | -0.26 | 2.52 | 4.02 | 1.5 | 4.36 | 1.84 | 3.84 | 1.32 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.8 | 3.88 | 0.08 | 4.08 | 0.28 | 3.87 | 0.07 | 1.4 | 3.98 | 2.58 | 4.33 | 2.93 | 3.82 | 2.42 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.25 | 3.45 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 1.35 | 3.83 | 1.58 | 2.25 | 3.45 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 1.35 | 3.83 | 1.58 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.28 | 2.91 | 0.63 | 2.86 | 0.58 | 2.61 | 0.33 | 3.62 | 3.42 | -0.2 | 3.31 | -0.31 | 2.96 | -0.66 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.16 | 3.6 | -0.56 | 3.47 | -0.69 | 3.16 | -1 | 3.04 | 4.08 | 1.04 | 4.17 | 1.13 | 3.54 | 0.5 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.4 | 4.08 | 1.68 | 4.47 | 2.07 | 4.11 | 1.71 | 2.05 | 3.75 | 1.7 | 4.12 | 2.07 | 4.06 | 2.01 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 4.84 | 3.69 | -1.15 | 3.78 | -1.06 | 5.2 | 0.36 | 2.1 | 3.96 | 1.86 | 4.12 | 2.02 | 5.05 | 2.95 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.5 | 3.99 | -0.51 | 3.99 | -0.51 | 4.37 | -0.13 | 5.65 | 4.56 | -1.09 | 4.56 | -1.09 | 5.28 | -0.37 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 6.75 | 5.43 | -1.32 | 5.76 | -0.99 | 7.05 | 0.3 | 6.75 | 5.44 | -1.31 | 5.76 | -0.99 | 7.05 | 0.3 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 3.16 | 4.49 | 1.33 | 4.32 | 1.16 | 4.35 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 4.16 | 2.91 | 3.85 | 2.6 | 3.58 | 2.33 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.82 | 3.46 | -0.36 | 3.48 | -0.34 | 3.41 | -0.41 | 3.49 | 3.31 | -0.18 | 3.21 | -0.28 | 3.26 | -0.23 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.53 | 3.44 | 0.91 | 3.42 | 0.89 | 2.72 | 0.19 | 0.47 | 3.62 | 3.15 | 3.63 | 3.16 | 2.24 | 1.77 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.34 | 3.08 | -0.26 | 3.13 | -0.21 | 3.22 | -0.12 | 3.25 | 2.62 | -0.63 | 2.46 | -0.79 | 2.5 | -0.75 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.59 | 4.13 | 0.54 | 4.42 | 0.83 | 4.15 | 0.56 | 3.21 | 4.62 | 1.41 | 4.96 | 1.75 | 4.12 | 0.91 |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | 1.62 | 4.29 | 2.67 | 4.16 | 2.54 | 3.26 | 1.64 | 1.46 | 4.14 | 2.68 | 4 | 2.54 | 3.11 | 1.65 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.79 | 2.71 | -1.08 | 2.62 | -1.17 | 2.57 | -1.22 | 4.91 | 3.25 | -1.66 | 3.14 | -1.77 | 3.05 | -1.86 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 3.09 | 3.44 | 0.35 | 3.27 | 0.18 | 2.9 | -0.19 | 4.94 | 3.2 | -1.74 | 2.89 | -2.05 | 2.62 | -2.32 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 4.39 | 3.99 | -0.4 | 3.72 | -0.67 | 4.39 | 0 | 4.66 | 3.44 | -1.22 | 3.21 | -1.45 | 3.39 | -1.27 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 3.38 | 3.11 | -0.27 | 3.09 | -0.29 | 2.89 | -0.49 | 3 | 3.33 | 0.33 | 3.29 | 0.29 | 3.38 | 0.38 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 2.07 | 3.81 | 1.74 | 3.7 | 1.63 | 3.08 | 1.01 | 2.67 | 3.33 | 0.66 | 3.16 | 0.49 | 2.35 | -0.32 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 4.23 | 4.33 | 0.1 | 4.28 | 0.05 | 4.1 | -0.13 | 6.23 | 4.92 | -1.31 | 4.86 | -1.37 | 5.04 | -1.19 |
Chris Tillman has a .322 BABIP despite a fairly even batted ball distribution with as many fly balls as ground balls and half as many line drives, but averages more than one pop up per start. With a reasonable Z-Contact rate and not a ton of hard hit balls (26.9%), you would expect better with a solid defense behind him. His 67.2 LOB% is 6.5 points below his career average as well. Improvement in these areas would bring his ERA below five, but what then?
Collin McHugh – There is a little bit to be optimistic about here. His .306 BABIP comes with a very similar 1.28 GB/FB to last year, but a 5.6 point drop in LD%. He may have been a bit fortunate at .259 last year, but with a quality defense or at least well positioned one, I’d think there’s a good chance his BABIP drops below .300 and with it, his ERA closer to four. That’s not great in and of itself, but his double digit strikeout rate suggests there may be some room for his K% to improve even if not to what it was last season. This could further improve his ERA outlook. In short, last year was probably an outlier, but there’s reason to believe he can be a league average, mid-rotation pitcher, useful for daily fantasy purposes in the right settings.
Danny Salazar has a 15.3 HR/FB. He’s only allowed more than one once, but has allowed at least one in all but three starts. So that HR is pretty consistently going to be there and has been an issue throughout his young career, although his 7.2 Hard-Soft% is about half of what it was last year, meaning that he’s managing contact quality better. The other problem is when he keeps the ball in the park, his defense can’t catch it. He has just an 18.5 LD% and an elite Z-Contact%, but Cleveland. What are you gonna do? Strike out everybody?
Erasmo Ramirez – Unfortunately, it’s been a .217 BABIP and 95.2 LOB% that’s led to his ERA drop over the last month and not a spike in strikeouts. He’s only allowed two solo HRs to score over his last four starts. It’s hard to complain about his .259 season BABIP when you see what the defense is doing.
Gio Gonzalez picked a bad year to start generating a ton of ground balls. His defense doesn’t seem to be able to turn them into outs. Combine that with just a single pop up and you have a .345 BABIP with otherwise average indicators (LD%, Z-Contact%). His 71.0 LOB% is exactly what it was last year and not far below his career average, while his 7.0 HR/FB has led to just three HRs this year. He has never had a HR/FB in double digits in any season with at least 100 innings pitched, so with the new ground ball rate, he’s never going to give them up, but he doesn’t seem to be that much better off while still walking people and having Ian Desmond at shortstop. It should improve some though.
Michael Pineda has had five blow up starts where he’s allowed at least five runs, but has otherwise been dominant. He’s gone from a fly ball to a ground ball pitcher this year and unfortunately seen his BABIP go through the roof. He doesn’t have any bad indicators and a LD rate below 20%, so there’s hope that he turns it around, but the defense hasn’t been very good. His 68.6 LOB% isn’t terrible, but could probably see some improvement too with his stuff.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.318 | 0.349 | 0.031 | 6.7% | 86.9% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.292 | 0.270 | -0.022 | 8.7% | 89.1% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.286 | 0.322 | 0.036 | 15.7% | 88.9% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.308 | 0.326 | 0.018 | 8.4% | 86.8% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 0.315 | 0.276 | -0.039 | 15.2% | 83.9% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.280 | 0.306 | 0.026 | 8.5% | 87.0% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.274 | 0.333 | 0.059 | 14.1% | 88.5% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.305 | 0.308 | 0.003 | 7.1% | 81.4% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.291 | 0.286 | -0.005 | 10.1% | 91.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.282 | 0.259 | -0.023 | 10.4% | 81.2% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.296 | 0.118 | -0.178 | 12.5% | 94.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.296 | 0.311 | 0.015 | 5.3% | 89.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.310 | 0.345 | 0.035 | 1.8% | 87.1% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.278 | 0.234 | -0.044 | 12.2% | 86.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.304 | 0.292 | -0.012 | 10.5% | 85.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.292 | -0.013 | 9.7% | 86.5% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.294 | 0.267 | -0.027 | 8.6% | 92.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.279 | 0.289 | 0.01 | 6.8% | 92.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.289 | 0.299 | 0.01 | 7.9% | 90.2% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.290 | 0.310 | 0.02 | 10.8% | 87.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.005 | 14.9% | 86.7% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.291 | 0.242 | -0.049 | 10.1% | 80.6% |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | 0.288 | 0.221 | -0.067 | 3.9% | 91.5% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.303 | 0.347 | 0.044 | 8.0% | 84.6% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.301 | 0.321 | 0.02 | 2.2% | 92.5% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 0.278 | 0.282 | 0.004 | 7.6% | 95.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.285 | 0.307 | 0.022 | 12.7% | 88.3% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.302 | 0.258 | -0.044 | 7.4% | 87.1% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 0.291 | 0.316 | 0.025 | 9.4% | 91.6% |
Cole Hamels has some great contact authority numbers this season with just a 1.9 Hard-Soft%. This isn’t showing in his 12.0 HR/FB this season (although most of those struggles were early) because his 26.3 Hard% is fairly normal, but it’s the 24.4 Soft% that I’d suggest might be keeping his BABIP down. His .276 mark is not that far from his .284 career rate, but to do that with this Philadelphia defense is quite the accomplishment and as you can see in the chart above, he has some elite indicators. I can’t argue with this. Carry on.
In a practice started last week, we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It’s a really tough group to separate into tiers today. A lot of the more usable pitchers run very closely together as a group, at least in terms of value and the one the numbers say is #1, I don’t entirely agree with, so just keep that in mind while we try anyway.
Value Tier One
Mike Bolsinger (7t) – This is the one that numbers really like and I think it’s because Bolsinger has a low price and 3.05 xFIP at home in his career, which basically normalizes for the two different homes he’s had over the last two years. Where I tend to buy in is a great home park against a team that lives on it’s RH power and he’s really dominated RH bats this year. I’m going to leave him here, but close the gap a bit and mention that there is a lot of risk here, making him more of a GPP play. The range of outcomes here is wide, but the conditions exist for a strong possibility of above average work at a below average cost across the board.
Noah Syndergaard (4) has been as advertised and in the few bad starts he’s had, he’s been mostly BABIP’d. You can see the improvements he’s made just from his first start just two months ago to a guy who is now missing more bats and using his secondary pitches confidently with success, making his fastball even more dangerous at over 95 mph on average. He has a good park adjusted matchup at a price tag not much above average. The difference between this and some previous starts is that I’m getting to a point where I’m starting to trust him in cash games/double ups.
Value Tier Two
David Phelps is our dumpster diving special today. He’s not good and has very little upside, but he costs the site minimum or very close to it on nearly every site tonight and is in a very good spot. Cincinnati is really just Joey Votto when you take away the power and they are not a good road team. There’s a decent chance Phelps could put together five okay innings before exiting if you wish to pair him with Bumgarner and go heavy on offense.
Cole Hamels (2) and is virtually interchangeable with his counterpart tonight. I have the latter rated slightly higher overall due mostly to matchup, but the Giants have been so cold that you could really go either way due to the difference in price with Hamels being a little lower.
Madison Bumgarner (1) may end up with a slight edge in strikeouts. As mentioned earlier, he gets my top projection for K% and has a great matchup in a great park, but a small price difference as the top guy on most sites probably removes the gap in value between he and Hamels.
Value Tier Three
Michael Pineda (5t) – I totally expect him to blow up and shove it in my face again today because that’s the way he’s rolled this year, but I have to throw that out the window and go with what makes sense. He doesn’t have the best matchup and should lose something in his strikeout rate, but against Boston, but the underlying numbers are dominant as he’s been several occasions. Unfortunately, there’s rarely any in between with him, but the cost is reasonable for a pitcher with so much upside.
Mike Leake – Alone, he’s not that interesting, but starting pitchers are never alone. They’re always pitching against somebody and a Miami offense that has been terrible against RHP are those somebodies. Similar to his counterpart, there’s a good chance this entire game is an exercise in offensive futility more due to the park and offenses than pitcher ability. Also like his counterpart, there’s not much upside in his strikeout rate, but that’s why we have the low cost.
Danny Salazar (5t) drops from a normally higher rating due to a normally higher expected strikeout rate, but his inability to complete five innings in three of his last four starts is perplexing and the K rate might take a hit. He should still generate them at an above average rate, but probably not an elite one and there is some risk in a higher end price tag.
Gerrit Cole (3) has been more average than great over the last month, but that’s very likely a bump in the road rather than any diminishing skills. He has to be in the conversation when you’re talking about top strikeout guys tonight and even though the Cardinals better than average vs RHP, he’s in a great home park and is anywhere from the top priced guy to number three tonight.
Value Tier Three A
Collin McHugh (9t) – There feels like there should be a small gap between the group above and him and then another small one to the next pitcher or two before we get to the rest of the group. McHugh hasn’t been as good as last year and likely won’t be again, but he’s also something likely better than what his ERA says this year. We’ve gone through the upside in his game today and putting him in a good park against a team that is below average vs RHP should give him a good chance at realizing some value beyond his price tag. Unfortunately, that price tag isn’t as low as I’d like in most places or I’d have him higher.
Value Tier Three B
Gio Gonzalez (9t) – Similar to McHugh, he’s likely better than what his ERA says, but the Nationals don’t catch ground balls. He’s in a tough spot tonight, but it may not be as bad as you think because of those ground balls and an ability he’s always shown to keep the ball in the park. The Orioles could also increase his league average strikeout rate this year. Again, I wish he were cheaper, but I don’t think he’s in as bad of a spot as it looks in Baltimore and stands a decent chance of exceeding expectations here.
Erasmo Ramirez is the ultimate risk/reward play today. Houston is not an easy offense to navigate with a lot of power and he allows a lot of hard contact. Fortunately, he pitches in a great park at a very low price against a team that strikes out a ton and may provide even further upside due to his SwStr rate. He’s my stealth candidate for one of the top K rates tonight, although he carries more risk and may not go as deep into the game as some others.
Value Tier Four – I feel these guys are basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Lance Lynn (7t) probably could fit into that 3B tier, but he’s a high priced guy who I often see as accurately or even a bit over-priced on the road. It leans more towards accurate tonight in a great park against a mediocre offense. The one concern I do have about his recent SwStr rates was mentioned above.
Chris Tillman is now dirt cheap and while I was calling for regression all of last year, I never thought he was this bad. His price now fits the expected performance.
Clay Buchholz – He’s cheaper on DraftKings where I’d be most likely to consider using him tonight if need be in a slightly unfavorable matchup.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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