Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, August 5th
We’re listing all the pitchers today with the afternoon games starting later, but only covering tonight’s pitchers in the written portion. Two more young pitchers make their major league debuts tonight, while Detroit continues trying out their new toys this week. One of these guys might actually even be interesting.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -6.9 | 4.26 | 6.07 | 0.9 | 1.01 | 4 | 4.54 | LOS | 103 | 111 | 135 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 26.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4.8 | 3.31 | 5.75 | 3.24 | 1.01 | 3.07 | 4.04 | PHI | 89 | 97 | 122 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 18.5% | 10.8% | 5.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 1.4 | 3.45 | 5.78 | 1.98 | 1.02 | 3.17 | 2.54 | CIN | 108 | 96 | 107 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 21.3% | 11.3% | 6.4% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -6.3 | 4.15 | 5.23 | 1.79 | 1.08 | 4.5 | 3.46 | TAM | 95 | 110 | 129 | 23.4% | 10.4% | 23.2% | 12.2% | 8.3% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | -0.5 | 4.2 | 5.46 | 1.96 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 2.61 | SEA | 90 | 94 | 121 | 18.7% | 5.0% | 21.1% | 17.9% | 9.6% |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 3.2 | 3.86 | 5.91 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 3.93 | 4.77 | PIT | 102 | 96 | 93 | 18.7% | 6.0% | 18.8% | 12.6% | 10.6% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -4.1 | 3.1 | 5.73 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 3.34 | 3.55 | ANA | 104 | 101 | 40 | 23.2% | 6.9% | 18.7% | 10.7% | 8.2% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 2.9 | 5.58 | 4.71 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 5.77 | 5.13 | STL | 94 | 89 | 127 | 17.6% | 9.9% | 18.2% | 13.9% | 6.1% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 5.2 | 4.27 | 5.77 | 1.23 | 1.01 | 3.96 | 4.04 | NYM | 76 | 90 | 115 | 19.8% | 7.1% | 22.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | -2 | 3.74 | 5.61 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 3.55 | 5.05 | MIN | 69 | 86 | 48 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 21.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 9.6 | 4.13 | 5.18 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 4.14 | 3.99 | CHW | 84 | 92 | 128 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 20.6% | 11.2% | 11.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -4.5 | 3.65 | 5.91 | 1.56 | 1.03 | 3.36 | 3.57 | ARI | 95 | 94 | 91 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 19.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3 | 4.35 | 5.37 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 4.59 | 5.01 | CLE | 90 | 99 | 90 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -8.6 | 3.63 | 5.83 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 3.66 | 3.42 | MIL | 86 | 89 | 58 | 21.7% | 7.1% | 22.0% | 10.7% | 7.4% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -4.5 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 1.97 | 0.91 | 3.74 | 4.36 | CHC | 96 | 98 | 104 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 24.7% | 11.7% | 5.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 10 | 3.25 | 7. | 1.28 | 1.05 | 3.59 | 3.58 | DET | 111 | 106 | 101 | 21.2% | 6.3% | 22.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -8.5 | 4.32 | 5.65 | 1.78 | 0.93 | 4.46 | 4.36 | BAL | 90 | 103 | 113 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 20.4% | 17.1% | 7.1% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | -5.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.02 | BOS | 84 | 95 | 115 | ||||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 1.7 | 3.11 | 6.5 | 1.24 | 0.98 | 3.14 | 2.86 | ATL | 89 | 77 | 86 | 21.4% | 5.3% | 22.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.4 | 3.62 | 3.1 | 1 | 1.05 | 3.78 | KAN | 95 | 97 | 55 | ||||||
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 3.4 | 3.41 | 6.68 | 1.27 | 1.01 | 3.79 | 3.07 | FLA | 82 | 78 | 30 | 21.3% | 5.5% | 16.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 2.4 | 5.02 | 5.6 | 0.91 | 1.08 | 5.21 | 4.64 | HOU | 94 | 107 | 129 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 23.1% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 3.1 | 3.93 | 5.93 | 1.55 | 1.03 | 3.92 | 3.45 | WAS | 91 | 96 | 70 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 19.5% | 15.1% | 6.6% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | -1.7 | 3.51 | 5.92 | 1.15 | 1.08 | 3.71 | 4.97 | TEX | 97 | 84 | 141 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 19.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | -2.1 | 4.04 | 5.01 | 1.22 | 1.02 | 4.61 | 3.65 | NYY | 124 | 110 | 156 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 19.1% | 15.4% | 5.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -2.7 | 3.61 | 5.69 | 1.08 | 1.4 | 3.86 | 2.91 | COL | 99 | 103 | 99 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 22.4% | 15.1% | 9.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | -3.8 | 3.82 | 6.42 | 1.72 | 1.07 | 3.73 | 3.71 | SDG | 87 | 91 | 123 | 22.3% | 8.3% | 22.5% | 5.4% | 9.6% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.05 | TOR | 127 | 108 | 136 | ||||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 7.6 | 3.83 | 6. | 1.01 | 0.93 | 4.1 | 4.05 | OAK | 98 | 91 | 59 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | -3.9 | 4.6 | 5.67 | 1.8 | 0.98 | 4.29 | 6.03 | SFO | 112 | 116 | 126 | 17.1% | 9.5% | 23.3% | 14.1% | 4.9% |
Brett Anderson generates weak ground balls and you should know how I feel about him. He’s one of the lower ceiling pitchers I usually recommend, but his floor is very high due to the type of contact he so frequently induces. The risk is that a few too many of those ground balls sneak through and he can’t make up for them with strikeouts, but that’s why a guy with a low ERA and estimators usually carries a low price tag in great spots. He leads the majors with a 66.4 GB% and has a 1.1 Hard-Soft%. He’s actually in a rather neutral situation tonight against a Phillies team that is average against lefties and hitting the ball well lately, but bad at home. They do compliment him well with an 8.1 HR/FB and 0.8 Hard-Soft% vs LHP.
Carlos Martinez allowed more than a single ER for the first time in 13 starts last time out and more than three ERs for the first time in that span. He still struck out six without a walk and had a 64.7 GB%. It happens. His 15.3 K-BB% this year is not elite, but it’s pretty damn good and his 3.6 Hard-Soft% is even better. The only thing better than a guy who generates a ton of weak contact is a guy who does it while striking out a lot of batters too. Cincinnati is a tough assignment at home (9.8 K-BB%, 13.4 HR/FB).
Dan Haren makes his debut for the Cubs. He’s pitched exactly six useful, but unimpressive innings in each of his last five starts. Useful, but unimpressive is probably what he is right now in terms of real baseball. A continuously dropping K% makes him less so for our purposes as daily fantasy baseball players. He does have a decent matchup in a good park at a low price, though. Pittsburgh is a fairly average offense that park adjusts down a bit.
David Phelps turns hard contact (19.1 Hard-Soft%) and a 4.6 SwStr% into a league average ERA somehow. I’m guessing some of it has to do with a 7.0 HR/FB in a big park, but I bet the rest of it will be painfully realized by whoever chooses to employ him next season. He is at home tonight, though, where he’s only allowed a single HR in seven starts, and he continues to remain cheap. It’s a different Mets offense, but they still rank 2nd worst on the road (22.2 K%, 7.3 HR/FB).
Drew Hutchison had a rare rough home start against the Royals last time out, striking out just one of 21 batters and allowing three ERs in five innings. He has a 17.5 K-BB% at home since last year though and everything seems to be better for him in Toronto, including his GB, LD, and HR rates. For some reason, he’s an above average pitcher at home and a terrible one on the road. The Twins are the worst road offense in baseball (22.1 K%, 7.2 HR/FB), 3rd worst against RHP (14.2 K-BB%), and ice cold over the last week (25.9 K%). Even with a positive park adjustment, they are one of the top matchups tonight.
Gio Gonzalez started well enough in his last start, but lost control land didn’t make it out of the fifth inning after his fourth walk, as sometimes happens with him. He’s otherwise been forcing a lot of ground balls and not allowed more than one ER in eight of his last nine starts though he boasts just an average K-BB%. He has just a 3.0 HR/FB at home since last season, which is unsustainable, but with such a stronger ground ball rate this year (56.8%), you could see how he’d rarely allow HRs at home. Arizona is a fairly neutral offense with the park adjustment slightly upward.
Ian Kennedy has put together three strong outings in a row, which he’ll look to build on in a tough park in Milwaukee for a HR prone pitcher tonight. He’s allowed at least one HR in nine straight starts with a HR/FB that still sits at 20.2%. An above average strikeout rate keeps him above float as an occasional DFS option, though. While he might have to be concerned with the park, he doesn’t have to be concerned as much with the weak offense that calls it home. They are a good matchup even with the upward bump with the 4th worst home offense and just a 4.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Jeff Locke has not exceeded five innings in five of his last seven starts and hasn’t been all that impressive while he’s been in there, though he has been about league average at home since last season. A 2.11 GB/FB and 3.1 Hard-Soft% occasionally help overcome a marginal strikeout rate, but what makes him worthy of some words today is a strong SwStr% and an opponent that strikes out a lot (24% on the road, 23% vs LHP, 25% over the last week). The Cubs are a good park adjusted matchup here with just a 7.1 HR/FB vs LHP.
Johnny Cueto was just average in his first AL start in a tough environment in Toronto and has another such one in Detroit tonight. He already had a good defense behind him but benefits from possibly the best in the league now. Add that to a 17.7 K-BB% and you have the potential for, well, Johnny Cueto-like numbers. The Tigers are a tough assignment in Detroit.
Luis Severino was labeled the top Yankee prospect by Fangraphs in January with a great fastball and plus change-up. The 3rd pitch (a slider) needed work, though. His transition to AAA this year has been a mixed bag. After striking out 30% of 157 AA batters this season, he’s been more average with a 20.9 K% at AAA (239 batters). He immediately faces a bad road team, but the park pulls the overall matchup up to neutral and they have just a 16.5 K% vs RHP.
Madison Bumgarner requires very little prose. He is coming off a rough outing in Texas but still rebounded to finish with eight strikeouts. He has the top ERA estimators in the main chart above today and a 20.0 K-BB% on the road since last season that matches his overall mark both this season and last. The Braves have a reputation for making a lot of weak contact this year with the exception being against LHP. They still make weak contact against them (4.5 Hard-Soft%) but also strike out more against them (21.3%). The Braves are the 4th worst offense vs LHP and a great park adjusted matchup overall.
Matt Harvey did not have our support for the first time possibly ever in his last outing due to not just one start, but a string of almost two months where he was performing below his usual standards. He responded with fury in dominating Washington, striking out nine for only the 2nd time since early June, though an 8.3 SwStr% still leaves something to be desired. He has an above average, but not dominant 14.8 K-BB% on the road this year and should be able to keep the ball in the park in Miami. He has the top park adjusted matchup of the night against a Miami team that are worst in baseball both at home and vs RHP. If that’s not enough, they are also the coldest offense in baseball over the last week.
Rubby de la Rosa remains incredibly HR prone (20.3 HR/FB), but combines that with a respectable 13.2 K-BB%, though his K% has tanked over the last month. He has allowed 10 HRs over his last seven starts but has only even pitched in a neutral park just once in that span (and he allowed three HRs in that game). The Nationals appeared like they were going to break out last night, scoring three in the first, but added just two more the rest of the night. They aren’t a bad park adjusted matchup here and do strike out slightly more than average.
Taylor Jungmann has allowed more than two ERs in just one of his 10 starts, although his estimators suggest someone more league average. He has done a good job limiting contact authority (4.5 Hard-Soft%) and that’s probably part of the reason he’s succeeding in a tough environment, though no HRs in four starts in Milwaukee is not sustainable. The Padres are a bad offense that’s been hitting well lately and gets the park bump to a neutral matchup here, but they strike out slightly more than average and may be missing their biggest bat in Justin Upton.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Scott Kazmir (.247 BABIP – 79.4 LOB% – 5.8 HR/FB) – I expect this decision to draw a lot of heat, but I think it’s the right one considering the cost (as much as anybody cares about my opinion). I’m not saying he’s a bad pitcher, but all of these numbers are way off his career rate with his 14.2 K-BB% just slightly worse than last year with an ERA a run and a half higher. He’s over-valued right now and seemed to have tanked late last year due to a heavy workload for the first time in years. The Rangers are one of the hottest offenses in baseball and a tough home team. The thing in his favor, though is that they lean heavily LH and are one of the worst offenses against them (23.0 K%). Again, I’m calling him over-valued, not bad. His ERA estimators suggest a league average pitcher and his FIP an above average one if you believe a low Oakland HR/FB to be sustainable in Houston.
Nick Martinez (.292 BABIP – 74.3 LOB% – 10.4 HR/FB) – As the preceding numbers have trended towards average, we’ve seen his ERA increase to over four. Now he’s there, but it can still get worse with a 5.4 K-BB% and probably looks better than it is due to eight unearned runs. Houston could inflict some pain on a pitcher who doesn’t strike out batters and allows quite a bit of hard contact.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Boyd does not have much prospect shine as a nearly 25-year-old now out of the 6th round in 2013, but does have a 20.3 K-BB% in 39 AAA innings this year. He struck out seven of 36 major league batters in two starts about a month ago for the Blue Jays but allowed five HRs. That’s a HR every seven batters. His strikeout rate is likely to be diminished against Kansas City, leaving us with just the HRs. Against a more strikeout prone offense, he might be worth a look, however.
Tyler Duffey has very little information available about him and that’s probably his best chance against Toronto. Projections systems project (because that’s what projection systems do) him for an ERA above four in the majors.
Williams Perez has a 5.8 K-BB% and just a 5.4 SwStr%.
David Holmberg walked three and struck out just four of 25 Pirates in his first start of the season with hard contact on a third of batted balls.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 18.1% | 7.7% | Home | 19.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.4% | 6.9% | Road | 20.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 7.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 23.0% | 9.1% | Road | 24.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 1.9% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 23.8% | 13.1% | Home | 22.4% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 10.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 14.2% | 7.0% | Home | 17.4% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 18.7% | 4.7% | Road | 19.1% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 4.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 27.3% | 7.1% | Road | 26.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.8% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 12.1% | 12.1% | Home | 13.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 17.3% | 8.1% | Home | 19.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.0% | 7.4% | Home | 24.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 18.6% | 8.2% | Road | 18.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 3.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.6% | 8.8% | Home | 22.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 9.5% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 19.7% | 9.1% | Home | 22.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.3% | 8.2% | Road | 22.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 16.8% | 8.9% | Home | 16.3% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 24.5% | 6.5% | Road | 21.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 15.4% | 7.8% | Home | 13.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 11.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 24.8% | 5.4% | Road | 23.5% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 3.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 19.4% | 2.8% | Home | 19.4% | 2.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 22.3% | 5.1% | Road | 22.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 1.8% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 13.1% | 8.7% | Home | 13.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 9.6% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.2% | 7.1% | Road | 17.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.3% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 22.8% | 6.7% | Road | 21.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 17.8% | 7.5% | Road | 15.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.8% | 7.2% | Road | 20.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 5.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 20.5% | 8.1% | Home | 22.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 11.5% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.0% | 5.3% | Road | 18.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 1.4% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 17.1% | 11.3% | Home | 22.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 14.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Road | 20.6% | 9.6% | RH | 20.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.5% | 6.5% | LH | 20.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.7% |
| Reds | Home | 18.4% | 8.6% | RH | 18.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.5% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 7.5% | LH | 22.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.0% | 7.2% | LH | 20.5% | 5.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 7.0% | RH | 20.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Home | 20.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 3.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.7% | 7.5% | LH | 23.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.2% | 6.5% | RH | 20.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 7.0% | RH | 20.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.9% | 7.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.7% | 6.7% | RH | 20.6% | 6.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.4% | 7.5% | LH | 21.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.9% | 4.4% |
| Indians | Road | 18.6% | 8.6% | LH | 18.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.7% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.9% | 7.2% | RH | 20.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.0% | 8.8% | LH | 23.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 9.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.7% | 7.5% | RH | 19.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.5% | RH | 22.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.3% | 7.9% | RH | 16.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Home | 18.6% | 8.3% | LH | 21.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 13.7% | 3.0% |
| Royals | Road | 16.6% | 5.1% | LH | 14.8% | 5.2% | L7Days | 14.8% | 1.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | RH | 20.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 5.3% |
| Astros | Road | 23.3% | 7.1% | RH | 24.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.0% | 8.1% | RH | 21.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.9% | 8.4% | LH | 23.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.0% | 9.0% | RH | 18.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.9% | 7.2% | RH | 19.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 25.3% | 5.9% |
| Padres | Road | 21.8% | 7.4% | RH | 21.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 15.7% | 9.7% | RH | 18.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 14.1% | 9.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.8% | 7.3% | LH | 16.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.8% |
| Giants | Road | 18.7% | 7.0% | RH | 17.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.3% | 6.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 22.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | Home | 22.0% | 5.9% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.3% | 12.0% | 3.7% | Road | 12.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 19.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | Road | 20.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 26.4% | 10.3% | 6.9% | Home | 26.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 22.5% | 15.9% | 11.5% | Home | 18.5% | 13.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 37.5% | 12.5% |
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 19.9% | 11.2% | 11.0% | Road | 20.0% | 14.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 21.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% | Road | 20.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 17.6% | 15.8% | 5.3% | Home | 16.4% | 18.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 23.4% | 8.8% | 10.1% | Home | 23.5% | 6.6% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 21.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | Home | 20.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | Road | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.3% | 25.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 20.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | Home | 20.8% | 3.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | Home | 17.8% | 8.1% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 22.1% | 12.6% | 8.2% | Road | 21.7% | 9.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 22.7% | 12.2% | 7.9% | Home | 22.5% | 9.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 19.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | Road | 21.3% | 7.1% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 22.6% | 13.2% | 5.5% | Home | 22.0% | 16.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.4% | 10.1% | 12.6% | Road | 18.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 18.5% | 45.5% | 0.0% | Home | 18.5% | 45.5% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 18.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% | Road | 14.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 21.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | Home | 21.9% | 8.6% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 20.0% | 16.0% | 7.6% | Road | 22.6% | 17.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 20.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | Road | 21.2% | 10.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 15.4% | 13.4% | 4.1% | Road | 15.3% | 17.4% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.5% | 12.0% | 11.4% | Road | 24.2% | 12.1% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 18.6% | 3.8% | 7.5% | Home | 25.4% | 0.0% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 21.6% | 12.8% | 10.3% | Road | 18.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 21.3% | 10.9% | 4.3% | Home | 23.1% | 13.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Road | 20.4% | 13.9% | 8.2% | RH | 21.3% | 14.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 15.6% | 11.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | LH | 22.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Reds | Home | 23.3% | 13.4% | 8.3% | RH | 21.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 12.8% | 4.3% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | LH | 19.9% | 12.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 13.6% | 5.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.8% | 12.9% | 7.9% | LH | 21.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 15.6% | 4.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.1% | 10.4% | 6.2% | RH | 20.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Home | 21.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | RH | 20.3% | 11.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 14.9% | 6.3% | 9.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.3% | 11.1% | 11.1% | LH | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 13.2% | 3.8% |
| Mets | Road | 23.4% | 7.3% | 10.9% | RH | 22.8% | 9.4% | 11.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Twins | Road | 18.8% | 7.2% | 11.2% | RH | 20.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | RH | 21.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.9% | 16.2% | 5.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | LH | 18.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| Indians | Road | 20.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | LH | 23.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | L7Days | 17.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.2% | 11.3% | 6.8% | RH | 21.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.0% | 4.9% | 9.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.4% | 10.4% | 7.7% | LH | 24.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 14.6% | 2.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | RH | 21.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 25.3% | 10.9% | 16.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | RH | 21.2% | 14.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 16.9% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.9% | 8.9% | 12.2% | RH | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.0% | 2.0% |
| Braves | Home | 21.5% | 8.1% | 10.3% | LH | 21.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 13.0% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Road | 22.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | LH | 23.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | RH | 20.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 14.0% | 5.5% | 9.1% |
| Astros | Road | 21.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | RH | 20.1% | 15.6% | 10.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 18.7% | 9.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.1% | 11.5% | 9.0% | RH | 21.0% | 12.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 14.3% | 5.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | LH | 19.2% | 12.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.9% | 15.5% | 10.0% | RH | 21.6% | 13.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.1% | 18.6% | 6.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.7% | 13.4% | 8.6% | RH | 21.6% | 14.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| Padres | Road | 20.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | RH | 19.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.3% | 15.2% | 14.4% | RH | 18.6% | 13.6% | 13.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 15.8% | 14.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | 11.7% | LH | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.7% | L7Days | 16.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% |
| Giants | Road | 23.0% | 13.5% | 5.9% | RH | 21.7% | 11.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 16.4% | 7.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 16.2% | 8.2% | 1.98 | 12.0% | 12.5% | 0.96 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 16.8% | 7.0% | 2.40 | 12.9% | 7.3% | 1.77 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 24.7% | 9.9% | 2.49 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 2.63 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 23.8% | 10.4% | 2.29 | 27.6% | 11.2% | 2.46 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 15.8% | 9.4% | 1.68 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 1.83 |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 16.8% | 5.9% | 2.85 | 13.3% | 6.0% | 2.22 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 28.0% | 12.5% | 2.24 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 2.19 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 16.0% | 4.0% | 4.00 | 16.0% | 4.0% | 4.00 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 15.7% | 4.6% | 3.41 | 14.6% | 5.4% | 2.70 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 19.7% | 9.5% | 2.07 | 15.4% | 9.7% | 1.59 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.9% | 12.6% | 1.58 | 17.4% | 11.1% | 1.57 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.7% | 9.1% | 2.27 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.94 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 22.1% | 8.7% | 2.54 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 2.59 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 21.5% | 9.7% | 2.22 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 2.56 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.9% | 9.5% | 1.88 | 18.6% | 11.5% | 1.62 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 23.4% | 10.8% | 2.17 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 2.06 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.99 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | ||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 24.8% | 12.0% | 2.07 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 2.00 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 19.4% | 9.9% | 1.96 | |||
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 23.4% | 11.2% | 2.09 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.28 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.7% | 7.3% | 1.88 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 2.19 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 19.9% | 11.5% | 1.73 | 12.5% | 8.1% | 1.54 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 22.1% | 10.8% | 2.05 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 1.69 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 15.2% | 8.9% | 1.71 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.45 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 23.6% | 10.5% | 2.25 | 25.2% | 11.8% | 2.14 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 20.5% | 7.7% | 2.66 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 2.61 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | ||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 19.9% | 8.8% | 2.26 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 1.78 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 17.1% | 5.4% | 3.17 | 11.1% | 6.7% | 1.66 |
Dan Haren – We’ve seen a dip in the strikeout rate with no change in the SwStr% over the last month. This is what we might expect going forward except for the fact that he might get a major upgrade in pitch framing from J.T. Realmuto (-4.8 RAA) to whoever catches him in Chicago, though Kyle Schwarber has graded slightly negatively (-0.2 RAA) so far. Miguel Montero and David Ross are both strong pitch framers.
David Phelps has peaked at a 7.7 SwStr% in 17 starts. That SwStr all year should give him his current 15.7 K%. It’s pretty damn low either way and not worth the effort, but there’s no way I can buy into that as anything other than an outlier this season.
Drew Hutchison did not see his SwStr% decrease with his K% over the last month and he had a start against Kansas City thrown in there. I wouldn’t worry about it.
Jeff Locke – We’ve talked several times this season about some potential in his SwStr rate and that’s been even more prevalent with an 11.5 SwStr% over the last month and only a single mark below 9% in his last 13 starts. A high walk rate may be part of what hinders him, but there’s definitely some potential there.
Rubby de la Rosa has struck out more than four in just one of his last five starts. The concern for the SwStr% is not as much though that too has dipped. He has the misfortune of dealing with maybe the worst catching staff in the league in terms of pitch framing. Perhaps Dave Stewart and company believe it builds character. You might consider that he’s approaching a professional career high in workload but hasn’t experienced a drop in velocity.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 3.97 | 4.44 | 0.47 | 4.57 | 0.6 | 4.02 | 0.05 | 1.8 | 4.54 | 2.74 | 3.62 | 1.82 | 2.49 | 0.69 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.14 | 3.32 | 0.18 | 3.41 | 0.27 | 3.66 | 0.52 | 3.74 | 3.89 | 0.15 | 3.79 | 0.05 | 4.47 | 0.73 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.61 | 3.39 | 0.78 | 3.24 | 0.63 | 3.45 | 0.84 | 2.22 | 3.34 | 1.12 | 3.38 | 1.16 | 2.92 | 0.7 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.84 | 4.15 | -0.69 | 3.89 | -0.95 | 3.84 | -1 | 6.57 | 4.05 | -2.52 | 3.85 | -2.72 | 4.51 | -2.06 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 4.61 | 3.81 | -0.8 | 3.67 | -0.94 | 4.51 | -0.1 | 5.25 | 3.3 | -1.95 | 3.15 | -2.1 | 4.8 | -0.45 |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 3.42 | 4.38 | 0.96 | 4.58 | 1.16 | 4.58 | 1.16 | 3.3 | 5 | 1.7 | 5.27 | 1.97 | 5.56 | 2.26 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.47 | 3 | -0.47 | 3.11 | -0.36 | 3.42 | -0.05 | 2.65 | 3.17 | 0.52 | 3.25 | 0.6 | 3.15 | 0.5 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 3 | 5.13 | 2.13 | 4.91 | 1.91 | 5.42 | 2.42 | 3 | 5.13 | 2.13 | 4.91 | 1.91 | 5.42 | 2.42 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 3.93 | 4.35 | 0.42 | 4.25 | 0.32 | 3.69 | -0.24 | 3.57 | 4.64 | 1.07 | 4.41 | 0.84 | 3.35 | -0.22 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 5.42 | 3.97 | -1.45 | 4.02 | -1.4 | 3.97 | -1.45 | 6.3 | 4.59 | -1.71 | 4.82 | -1.48 | 5.14 | -1.16 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.61 | 3.81 | 0.2 | 3.93 | 0.32 | 3.67 | 0.06 | 2.7 | 3.91 | 1.21 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 3.69 | 0.99 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.75 | 3.7 | -0.05 | 3.55 | -0.2 | 3.18 | -0.57 | 2.08 | 3.93 | 1.85 | 3.81 | 1.73 | 3.23 | 1.15 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.7 | 3.96 | 1.26 | 4.38 | 1.68 | 4.03 | 1.33 | 4.09 | 3.39 | -0.7 | 3.73 | -0.36 | 3.63 | -0.46 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 4.44 | 3.78 | -0.66 | 3.88 | -0.56 | 5.21 | 0.77 | 3.38 | 3.94 | 0.56 | 4.16 | 0.78 | 5.03 | 1.65 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.21 | 4.12 | -0.09 | 3.88 | -0.33 | 3.75 | -0.46 | 4.43 | 4.44 | 0.01 | 4.04 | -0.39 | 3.67 | -0.76 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 2.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 3.44 | 0.74 | 3.09 | 0.39 | 2.25 | 4.02 | 1.77 | 3.99 | 1.74 | 2.53 | 0.28 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 3.84 | 4.45 | 0.61 | 4.29 | 0.45 | 4.59 | 0.75 | 6.63 | 4.2 | -2.43 | 4.04 | -2.59 | 5.51 | -1.12 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | ||||||||||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.39 | 3.15 | -0.24 | 3.2 | -0.19 | 3.28 | -0.11 | 3.65 | 3.28 | -0.37 | 3.35 | -0.3 | 3.49 | -0.16 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 14.85 | 3.59 | -11.26 | 3.78 | -11.07 | 11.19 | -3.66 | |||||||
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2.91 | 3.41 | 0.5 | 3.47 | 0.56 | 3.56 | 0.65 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 3.88 | 1.68 | 3.75 | 1.55 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.01 | 4.83 | 0.82 | 4.9 | 0.89 | 4.82 | 0.81 | 7.63 | 4.86 | -2.77 | 4.79 | -2.84 | 5.76 | -1.87 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.59 | 3.7 | -0.89 | 3.58 | -1.01 | 4.68 | 0.09 | 4.55 | 4.73 | 0.18 | 4.6 | 0.05 | 6.63 | 2.08 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 2.1 | 3.78 | 1.68 | 3.72 | 1.62 | 3.08 | 0.98 | 0.35 | 4.24 | 3.89 | 4.27 | 3.92 | 2.47 | 2.12 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 4.53 | 4.56 | 0.03 | 4.83 | 0.3 | 5.23 | 0.7 | 5.51 | 4.33 | -1.18 | 4.72 | -0.79 | 5.9 | 0.39 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.73 | 3.46 | -1.27 | 3.67 | -1.06 | 4.17 | -0.56 | 5.93 | 3.1 | -2.83 | 3.38 | -2.55 | 4.84 | -1.09 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 2.23 | 3.82 | 1.59 | 3.86 | 1.63 | 3.1 | 0.87 | 1.77 | 3.97 | 2.2 | 3.82 | 2.05 | 2.58 | 0.81 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | ||||||||||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 3.24 | 3.81 | 0.57 | 3.94 | 0.7 | 4.46 | 1.22 | 4.5 | 3.82 | -0.68 | 3.93 | -0.57 | 5.02 | 0.52 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 4.14 | 4.6 | 0.46 | 4.66 | 0.52 | 4.65 | 0.51 | 18.69 | 6.03 | -12.66 | 6.8 | -11.89 | 8.17 | -10.52 |
Carlos Martinez – That run he was on of not allowing more than a run ever was going to end. An 84.5 LOB% this season is not really sustainable over the long run. His 13.5 HR/FB is interesting, but he’s allowed just four over his last 13 starts. It’s slow to decrease though because he had a 56% ground ball rate.
Dan Haren has generated 26 pop ups this year. That’s probably near the league lead with a 0.64 GB/FB. That and a 19.4 LD% have greatly helped his BABIP, but his current rate is still not sustainable. He really doesn’t gain or lose much of anything defensively in the trade, though his HR rate might suffer leaving Miami and going to Wrigley. Luckily, he doesn’t have to worry about that immediately. His 82.6 LOB% is likewise unsustainable. A BABIP around .270 and a good defense should keep his ERA around four the rest of the season.
Drew Hutchison – As explained last time, this is really a home and away thing. He has a .287 BABIP with a 76.4 LOB% at home vs a .420 BABIP and 57.0 LOB% on the road. Since he’s at home, we’ll just focus on the good and note that his 2.47 home ERA actually beats his 3.5 xFIP this year due to a 1.4 GB/FB with a 5.4 HR/FB. That’s not likely sustainable in Toronto by the way. About three and a half seems right.
Ian Kennedy has an ERA smack in the middle of his FIP and other estimators, possibly due to the good BABIP that accompanies it. A 14.7 K-BB% also favors him but cut that HR rate in half and he’s an average pitcher.
Johnny Cueto has an ERA in line with his FIP with a slightly below average 8.1 HR/FB. Although he has a normal 9.9 HR/FB for his career and you might expect regression in Cincinnati, this might be perfectly fine pitching in Kansas City more often. He actually had a .412 BABIP in last start, but still just .243 for the year. His indicators are fine and Kansas City allows the same BABIP as Cincinnati, but at this point it’s difficult to immediately point at what exactly is unsustainable when he’s doing it for the third straight year. One major difference this year though is a strand rate that’s below 80% for the first time in three years and closer to his career rate of 76.8%.
Rubby de la Rosa – This is all about the HRs with an ERA that matches his FIP.
Taylor Jungmann hits the triple whammy here. His BABIP is a bit low without any great indicators, though is contact authority and 18.6% line drive rates are both strong. His 79.5 LOB% will regress and a 3.8 HR/FB is entirely unsustainable. Six of his 10 starts have been on the road, but only two in pitcher’s parks and one of his two HRs was allowed in Pittsburgh, so go figure.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.319 | 0.289 | -0.03 | 11.1% | 89.0% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.297 | 0.311 | 0.014 | 1.4% | 92.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.290 | 0.302 | 0.012 | 7.3% | 88.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.318 | 0.362 | 0.044 | 6.9% | 86.8% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.315 | 0.343 | 0.028 | 10.2% | 87.6% |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 0.291 | 0.248 | -0.043 | 13.5% | 91.8% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.299 | 0.274 | -0.025 | 5.4% | 81.6% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 0.281 | 0.235 | -0.046 | 0.0% | 90.0% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 9.6% | 91.7% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.283 | 0.352 | 0.069 | 13.0% | 85.2% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.279 | 0.255 | -0.024 | 15.4% | 81.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.307 | 0.340 | 0.033 | 2.7% | 87.4% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.280 | 0.265 | -0.015 | 10.2% | 86.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.295 | 0.282 | -0.013 | 7.9% | 87.0% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.304 | 0.315 | 0.011 | 4.8% | 86.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.280 | 0.243 | -0.037 | 10.4% | 85.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.283 | 0.303 | 0.02 | 5.6% | 92.1% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.299 | ||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.288 | 0.297 | 0.009 | 14.4% | 87.4% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.302 | 0.435 | 0.133 | 0.0% | 88.4% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.283 | 0.263 | -0.02 | 11.6% | 83.2% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.294 | 0.292 | -0.002 | 10.4% | 91.3% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.292 | 0.287 | -0.005 | 5.9% | 83.5% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.282 | 0.247 | -0.035 | 5.0% | 85.9% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.307 | 0.254 | -0.053 | 4.8% | 81.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.291 | 0.294 | 0.003 | 10.7% | 84.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 0.304 | 0.271 | -0.033 | 7.5% | 90.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.294 | ||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.288 | 0.276 | -0.012 | 11.0% | 87.4% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.306 | 0.306 | 0 | 4.3% | 91.5% |
Gio Gonzalez has had a BABIP just below .300 each of the last two months. A continuation of that trend should have him back within range at the end of the season. Although he doesn’t have any positive indicators, a high line drive rate and defense that struggled with ground balls likely put him in the early hole.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Brett Anderson (3t) – A fairly low ceiling, but high enough floor in another good spot at a low price for a cult classic in these parts. If I’m looking to roster a stud in a cash game, this is a great pitcher to pair him with. While the strikeout rate may be below average, he’s gone at least six innings in 10 of his last 13 starts and generates more weak ground balls than any pitcher in the league. Call him Dallas Kuechel light, only because the K% is lower, but so is the cost……significantly. The Phillies and their 0.8 Hard-Soft% vs LHP only help.
Value Tier Two
Madison Bumgarner (1) needs no explanation here. The Braves, sans Freeman again (though that’s less of an issue against a top lefty anyway) have no offensive threats in this lineup and strike out more than average against LHP. The price tag actually seems slightly too low today.
Drew Hutchison is a more speculative GPP play today and his last outing cast some doubt on those Home/Away splits that defy logic, but a low price tag everywhere except FanDuel with a great matchup against a terrible road team makes him more than worth another shot here.
Value Tier Three
Rubby de la Rosa is a high risk, mid-priced GPP option. The risk obviously comes from the enormous HR rate with a drop in his K rate over the last month. The upside shows up in the Washington offense being slightly over-valued and the strikeout rate drop not being fully supported in his SwStr rate, although that too is lower. There’s just not a lot of low priced upside tonight though.
Carlos Martinez (3t) – Here we start to find a few more flaws or caution flags. For Martinez, it’s facing a tough home team with some power in a park that plays it up. There’s at least some chance that he could find some trouble here, but the price is reasonable, possibly due to the rough outing last time out and the park shift, and it’s more likely that he’ll be fine.
Matt Harvey (2) looked great in his last start though the nine strikeouts may have been deceiving with a below average SwStr rate. He’s struggled with the Marlins in Miami in the past, but this is a weak lineup and a great matchup.
Ian Kennedy – While the park might scare you for such a HR prone pitcher, the weaker offense that inhibits it does not so much. He has some strikeout upside at a reasonable price and has been pitching well lately.
Gio Gonzalez – The price tag on DraftKings surprises me (low). He may have a reduced strikeout rate this year, but it’s still league average and he keeps the ball on the ground now, rarely letting it leave the park. The D’Backs have a couple of legitimate bats, but nothing towards the 2nd half of the order and shouldn’t scare you here as much as his own control issues.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Johnny Cueto (3t) has a tough matchup I’m not thrilled about paying up for tonight, but I don’t expect him to be bad.
Taylor Jungmann might not be as good as his ERA, but has a decent matchup and doesn’t seem to be too over-valued here.
Jeff Locke should see an increase in strikeouts tonight at a reasonable price.
Luis Severino has the potential to be good, but is a work in progress and faces a team that doesn’t not strike out often. The low cost might be worth a flyer though he’s more of a huge range of outcomes guy than an adequately priced one.
David Phelps – The very low cost is probably just about adequate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.