Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, August 5th
On a full Friday, we have some strength and we look to have some value, which is all you can ask for from your daily fantasy pitching. Then, of course, there’s DraftKings taking Justin Verlander just about off the board at $13.6K. I’m having trouble understanding what would necessitate a price tag $2.4K higher than the next pitcher, whom he’s facing tonight, and $3.7K higher than his FanDuel cost.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | -0.8 | 3.99 | 6. | 1.27 | 0.95 | 4.39 | 3.89 | PIT | 115 | 96 | 44 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -3.3 | 4.5 | 5.47 | 1.26 | 0.97 | 4.41 | 3.96 | MIN | 103 | 105 | 158 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | -7.3 | 4.91 | 5.55 | 1.64 | 1.07 | 4.91 | MIL | 83 | 86 | 115 | |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -7.9 | 4.33 | 5.33 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 4.44 | 3.25 | ARI | 90 | 86 | 60 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | -5.9 | 4.46 | 5.29 | 1.43 | 0.86 | 4.39 | 6.14 | PHI | 91 | 75 | 86 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 8.2 | 3.22 | 6.78 | 2.89 | 1.01 | 2.53 | 4.42 | TEX | 91 | 102 | 97 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 3.8 | 4.07 | 5.59 | 1.16 | 1.37 | 4.57 | 3.32 | COL | 103 | 92 | 108 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 5.3 | 4.43 | 5.54 | 1.29 | 1.04 | 4.58 | 5.49 | TOR | 98 | 103 | 77 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | -10 | 6.07 | 4.53 | 0.38 | 0.95 | 6.52 | 7.34 | CHC | 110 | 115 | 103 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -4.5 | 4.35 | 6.09 | 1.09 | 0.97 | 4.59 | 3.78 | TAM | 93 | 93 | 104 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -4.9 | 3.5 | 6.42 | 2.08 | 0.9 | 3.55 | 4.39 | ANA | 104 | 103 | 111 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.7 | 3.85 | 5.82 | 1.92 | 1.04 | 3.91 | 3.1 | KAN | 102 | 98 | 45 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 5.2 | 3.81 | 5.78 | 1.69 | 1.02 | 3.43 | 5.77 | SFO | 93 | 105 | 97 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | -6.5 | 3.73 | 6.12 | 2.54 | 0.97 | 3.2 | 4.42 | ATL | 77 | 77 | 106 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -3 | 3.33 | 5.75 | 2.3 | 0.95 | 3.47 | 2.43 | CIN | 80 | 85 | 98 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.8 | 3.98 | 6.61 | 1.19 | 1.02 | 4.36 | 5.4 | WAS | 96 | 95 | 119 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -2.4 | 4.07 | 5.54 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 4.32 | 5.94 | SDG | 95 | 83 | 94 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 0.2 | 4.99 | 5.37 | 1.07 | 0.97 | 4.04 | 5.19 | STL | 102 | 112 | 97 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 8.8 | 3.37 | 6.4 | 1.44 | 0.95 | 3.44 | 4.22 | OAK | 86 | 97 | 108 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 1.9 | 4.29 | 5.62 | 1.72 | 1.37 | 4.19 | 5.11 | FLA | 101 | 99 | 103 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.4 | 3.85 | 6.32 | 1 | 1.02 | 4 | 2.96 | NYY | 92 | 85 | 72 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -6.8 | 3.75 | 6.59 | 0.79 | 1.01 | 4.02 | 3.12 | NYM | 88 | 93 | 99 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 6.1 | 4.83 | 5.86 | 2.29 | 1.01 | 4.85 | 4.02 | HOU | 93 | 93 | 27 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 1.8 | 3.19 | 5.9 | 1.43 | 1.02 | 3.19 | 3.74 | CLE | 86 | 107 | 132 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 2.2 | 4.46 | 5.8 | 1.08 | 0.99 | 4.46 | 3.69 | BAL | 95 | 109 | 76 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -1.3 | 2.87 | 6.18 | 1.6 | 1.01 | 3.02 | 3.58 | DET | 111 | 107 | 140 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.5 | 4 | 5.71 | 1.09 | 0.9 | 3.72 | 3.5 | BOS | 106 | 112 | 74 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 2.1 | 4.3 | 6.29 | 1.25 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 4.44 | LOS | 100 | 101 | 128 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 3.8 | 4.88 | 4.74 | 1.36 | 0.9 | 5.22 | 8.5 | SEA | 111 | 110 | 70 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -3.3 | 4.74 | 5.48 | 1.49 | 0.99 | 4.51 | 4.87 | CHW | 93 | 87 | 97 |
Dallas Keuchel ended an otherwise strong month by getting thumped in Detroit last time out. He had a double digit SwStr% with a hard contact rate below 30% and 50% of batted balls on the ground. He walked three and two of his seven fly balls left the yard. This is essentially what did him in as six of his seven runs came in the first. Somehow, that makes it feel less concerning. He improved on his SwStr% last month without it even really showing up in his K%, generating ground balls 52% of the time with just 26% hard contact. Take away that one inning in Detroit and he had a great month. He gets the new look Rangers at home tonight. Maybe they’re a bit above average now with their new additions, but it still doesn’t seem like an offense to be feared yet.
Francisco Liriano makes his first start for Toronto and while it’s a major park downgrade, he breaks in with something in the middle (a positive run environment that suppresses power). What may surprise you is the defensive upgrade. Toronto has a team BABIP allowed nearly 30 points lower than Pittsburgh. He actually had his lowest walk rate (10.7%) and highest strikeout rate (23.6%) in July. Not great, but at least useful for our purposes. His 19.6 HR/FB is through the roof (five over his last three starts) with a 35.0 Hard% not helping much and wait until he gets to Toronto, but it might not hurt him too bad in Kansas City. It’s a big park (9.8 HR/FB at home), though not as favorable as Pittsburgh and 51.9% of his contact has been on the ground. The Royals haven’t been bad at home or vs LHP, but have been pretty awful recently.
Jaime Garcia has struck out a total of 12 batters over his last four starts and has completed six innings with a ground ball rate above 50% in just one of his last five. He allowed six runs to the Marlins in his last start with his lowest velocity of the season, averaging just 89 mph on his fastball. He’s at 121 innings now and hasn’t passed 130 since 2011. There are still two reasons for consideration today. First, he’s generally very good at home (14.2 K-BB% since last season), like many Cardinal pitchers. More importantly, the Braves are the second worst offense both on the road (26.2 Hard%, 8.9 HR/FB) and vs LHP (6.7 HR/FB).
Jameson Taillon has gone exactly six innings in each of his last four starts. He’s allowed two or fewer runs and struck out at least six three times each. He has a 23.4 K-BB% over that span, which is also his K%. That’s right. He has not walked a batter in four starts with a 57.7 GB%. One-third of his contact has been hit hard, but he’s been otherwise flawless. Tonight, he gets a poor Cincinnati offense that just traded away one of their top two bats at home in one of the top park adjusted matchups. The Reds have a 14.8 K-BB% on the road and 14.3 K-BB% vs RHP with much less power away from home.
Jon Lester had an ERA over seven in July. He had a stretch of three games where he walked 11 batters, striking out just two more than that, but he has struck out 14 of his last 46 and seemed to get back on track against the Mariners with six shutout innings last time out. His season estimators are a bit higher than they’ve been the last few years with a lower, but still solid 16.8 K-BB%. Some of it is in a higher walk rate as his strikeout rate is still in line. Some of it is in a much higher HR rate (17 allowed already), but he’s not allowing any more contact that usual (6.5 Hard-Soft%). The A’s are an interesting spot tonight. They do have some lefty mashers and are better against LHP (17.4 K%), but still rarely take walks and have little power at home (9.4 HR/FB).
Michael Pineda allowed five runs again in his last start and that seems to be the magic number for him as it’s something he’s done in three of his last five starts, but he did garner some strong results in each of the two previous ones (13 IP – 1 R – 1 HR – 16 K – 53 BF) and has actually struck out exactly eight in each of his last three. To give him an arbitrary endpoint, he has a 3.68 ERA (estimators still lower) with a 31.1 K% (15.5 SwStr%) and just nine HRs over his last 11 starts with three of the homers coming in one game against Boston. Cleveland is strong against RHP, but have the largest home/road splits of any team in baseball for some reason. We’re definitely not calling this a favorable spot though.
Noah Syndergaard started the season so dominantly that people really fail to appreciate that he’s still been very good outside of a few starts recently. He walked a few more batters in July, but his strikeout rate was still elite enough to keep his K-BB at 20.3% despite the league average walk rate. He did have a poor month in terms of hard contact (33.8%), but he’s still below 30% for the season, failing to justify his .347 BABIP. His ground ball rate was just 39.5% in July, his first month below 50% with his velocity plummeting all the way to 97.7 mph. The Tigers are a top five offense at home and vs RHP. They also just got one of their top bats back in the middle of the lineup.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Anthony DeSclafani (.314 – 80.9 – 10.6) isn’t in a bad spot with a park upgrade in Pittsburgh against the ice cold Pirates. He’s been a perfectly competent pitcher, but may be a tad overpriced on DraftKings especially ($9.4K). He’s one of about five or six very borderline pitchers below the arbitrary cutoff today that I couldn’t argue too hard against using. There seem to be several more favorable choices in his price range on either site though.
Felix Hernandez (.270 – 75.7% – 14.3) has six unearned runs against his name, 16.2% of his total. He struck out just five of his first 59 batters after returning from a two month DL stint, allowing three HRs. He struck out eight of 24 Cubs without a HR last time out, but with five walks. We know he’s still a ground ball pitcher (>50%), but beyond that, I don’t know right now to be honest. What we do know is that the Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball and Trout vs Felix is one of the few BvP matchups that everybody knows.
Ervin Santana (.290 – 71.1% – 9.6) would have a total run average above four, counting his seven unearned runs (12.5%). He did have his best month with a 13.6 K-BB% in July, but a .230 BABIP and 4.8 HR/FB had his ERA more than two runs below his peripherals.
Blake Snell (.317 – 71.9 – 4.3) has struck out 29 of 95 batters over his last four starts and that is backed up by a 13.4 SwStr%. He’s not allowing a lot of hard contact (26.8% over this span), but his HR rate is still way too low. A continued double digit walk rate has only gotten him through six innings in half of his eight start and more than that only twice. The Minnesota offense strikes out a bit (23% vs LHP), but has been mashing lefties for a while now and just about everyone else over the last week.
Steven Wright (.283 – 67.9 – 5.7) has an ERA above six over the last month (though that’s mostly due to one terrible start against Detroit).
Martin Perez (.284 – 69.8% – 11.5) is another unearned run guy (12.7%). There have been so many of these, I’m considering just including it for everyone from now on. While he has a strong ground ball rate, I don’t know how he gets by on a 1.4 K-BB% and a 16.4 Hard-Soft%.
Joel de la Cruz (.263 – 70.9% – 13.8) has worked mostly out of the bullpen with three starts and just a 6.9 K-BB% and 35.7 Hard% overall.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Scott Kazmir has not walked a batter in three starts, but has now allowed a HR in four straight. His strikeouts have been up and down too. Overall the peripherals look strong, but the inconsistency and volatility has been maddening. It’s not that he’s not usable against a slumping Boston offense without their DH (though with Hanley out, Ortiz will likely play First), it’s just that his upside is not so high that he’s generally worth the headache on a decent full slate. I have no issue plugging him into the starting pitcher number two spot if he’s the guy who fits in a GPP though.
David Phelps is a failed former starter who has pitched well out of the bullpen, but we don’t want to disillusion ourselves that his 31.5 K% from a 9.6 SwStr% can transition to the rotation, in Colorado tonight no less. You start to wonder when he costs just $4K, but the 2.2 innings in his last appearance was his longest outing since the first week of the season. Pitching like he’s coming out of the bullpen for three or four innings and putting up 10 to 12 points is probably the best anyone who wanted to punt their second pitcher spot could hope for.
Josh Tomlin has increased his strikeout rate and reduced his non-FIP estimators over the last month, while his ERA has actually increased. That FIP is the problem though. Only two pitchers have allowed more than his 25 HRs and while the Yankee offense is broken and it’s not a bad overall spot, they can still pop the ball up over that right field wall.
Justin Verlander remains here solely because of his ridiculous $13.6K cost on DraftKings. I’d be open to considering on FanDuel because while I still don’t consider him today’s top pitcher or top value, I’m starting to come around on him as more than an average pitcher, though we have to be conscious that he went from a 17.4 HR/FB in June to a 2.7 HR/FB with a .238 BABIP in July. He is a low BABIP generator when he’s right, but it’s still not 2011 anymore and the pricing is much too aggressive here. That said, he did have a 21.3 K-BB% in July and the Mets will strike out a bit. There is one other thing slightly in his favor here. The Mets lean strongly LH right now and he has a slight reverse split this season and even the smallest of one (eight points of wOBA) in his career.
Chase Anderson comes surprisingly close to being useful today. He seems to have gotten his HR issues under control (just two over his last six starts) and actually struck out a season high seven in his last start. He’s been a little better recently and despite getting Peralta back, the Diamondbacks continue to be inept against RHP (16.8 K-BB%) and now even have a 17.3 K-BB% at home, but the contact they do make in that park is dangerous (16.2 HR/FB, 19.4 Hard-Soft%) and he hasn’t gone more than five innings since the beginning of June.
Gio Gonzalez didn’t allow many runs in July, but had just a 4.5 K-BB% with a .244 BABIP and 79.9 LOB%. His estimators were two and a half runs higher than his ERA. The Giants have just a 9.5 K-BB% vs LHP.
Jeremy Hellickson was someone that I originally thought would slot in well, but then noticed he’s struck out just three of his last 46 batters with a 5.6 SwStr%. We can hope that it’s just a blip on the radar, but his velocity is down slightly, almost a mile per hour. Though this is still a strong spot in Petco and the Padres have a 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP, they’ve turned to a more balanced lineup, adding several LHBs over the last couple of months. I’d still be open to considering him if he didn’t cost $9.3K on DraftKings.
Miguel Gonzalez had a .239 BABIP and 7.5 HR/FB in July, while his SwStr has been above 9% just once in his last nine starts, so we’re not buying into the recent K% increase. His old team will strike out, but still has a lot of power vs RHP.
Jorge de la Rosa
Jeff Samardzija may not have been worth that big contract.
Christian Friedrich has been so bad that we can’t use him against the worst offense in baseball against LHP in one of the best parks.
Braden Shipley may have looked like he fared much better in his second major league start than his first, but had a 72.2 Hard% against the Dodgers, after allowing three HRs and just a 22.2 Hard% in his first. He didn’t miss many bats in either start, nor has he in the minors. The Brewers (25.9 K% vs RHP) should help with that, but maybe not enough.
Tim Linecum
Dillon Overton teaches me that a strong swinging strike rate alone does not make a pitcher. No qualified pitcher has a fly ball rate above 48%. His is 55.3% through four starts. At least he’s in Oakland.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.3% | Road | 18.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.8% | 11.6% | Home | 22.9% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 10.0% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 16.3% | 10.2% | Home | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.2% | ||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.4% | Road | 17.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 18.0% | 9.7% | Home | 15.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.2% | Home | 25.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.4% | Road | 18.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 17.4% |
| Dillon Gee | Royals | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.4% | Home | 17.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Dillon Overton | Athletics | L2 Years | 11.8% | 6.5% | Home | 14.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 18.4% | 7.4% | Road | 17.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 3.4% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.4% | Home | 22.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.9% | 11.0% | Road | 23.9% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 33.8% | 10.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.6% | 8.5% | Home | 23.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 7.7% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 6.9% | Home | 20.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 2.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.0% | 2.7% | Home | 16.5% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.2% | Road | 16.6% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.3% | Road | 18.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 6.5% | 4.4% |
| Joel De La Cruz | Braves | L2 Years | 11.8% | 4.9% | Road | 20.8% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.7% | 6.2% | Road | 23.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 15.2% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.5% | 9.9% | Home | 22.5% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 19.4% | 3.1% | Road | 18.5% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 3.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 23.2% | 6.2% | Home | 25.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 5.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.3% | 8.7% | Road | 11.4% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 7.8% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.5% | 4.3% | Home | 26.1% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 10.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.8% | 7.8% | Home | 18.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 5.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.7% | 5.1% | Road | 27.6% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 9.6% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.7% | 7.8% | Home | 24.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.3% | Road | 18.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.5% |
| Tim Lincecum | Angels | L2 Years | 16.9% | 11.2% | Road | 15.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 21.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 15.6% | 9.3% | Road | 15.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 14.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 19.7% | 9.0% | RH | 20.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.7% |
| Twins | Road | 24.2% | 8.3% | LH | 23.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.6% | 9.4% | RH | 25.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.0% | 6.7% | RH | 23.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.6% | 6.8% | LH | 22.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 12.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.7% | 6.1% | LH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 4.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | RH | 20.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.8% | 9.3% | RH | 22.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 32.4% | 8.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.9% | 10.0% | LH | 19.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 25.8% | 11.9% |
| Rays | Home | 25.4% | 8.3% | RH | 24.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 12.5% |
| Angels | Road | 15.6% | 7.7% | RH | 15.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 13.0% | 8.1% |
| Royals | Home | 18.1% | 6.7% | LH | 19.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 5.8% |
| Giants | Road | 17.8% | 8.4% | LH | 18.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.8% | 10.2% |
| Braves | Road | 20.3% | 7.2% | LH | 20.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Reds | Road | 21.8% | 7.0% | RH | 21.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 9.6% | RH | 19.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.0% |
| Padres | Home | 23.8% | 8.0% | RH | 24.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.6% | 11.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.5% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.8% | 6.5% | LH | 17.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.2% | 7.1% | LH | 22.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.6% | 8.8% | RH | 19.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.3% |
| Mets | Road | 22.8% | 7.5% | RH | 22.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.5% |
| Astros | Home | 24.8% | 9.5% | LH | 23.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 27.1% | 4.7% |
| Indians | Road | 21.7% | 7.0% | RH | 20.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.2% | 7.0% | RH | 22.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.1% | 7.8% | RH | 21.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.8% | 8.2% | LH | 18.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 9.0% | RH | 20.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.9% | 9.1% | RH | 20.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.6% | 8.4% | RH | 20.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 14.9% | 6.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2016 | 29.1% | 10.6% | 12.1% | Road | 29.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 16.7% | 13.4% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 28.4% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 2016 | 28.4% | 4.3% | 7.1% | Home | 33.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 9.1% | 21.9% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 47.2% | 27.3% | 36.1% | 2016 | 47.2% | 27.3% | 36.1% | Home | L14 Days | 47.2% | 27.3% | 36.1% | |||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 2016 | 36.8% | 14.8% | 19.0% | Road | 31.7% | 15.5% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 2016 | 32.2% | 9.8% | 12.1% | Home | 31.0% | 10.6% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 23.9% | 14.6% | 0.3% | 2016 | 29.7% | 16.5% | 8.3% | Home | 20.6% | 9.1% | -7.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.8% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 2016 | 26.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | Road | 33.2% | 12.4% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Gee | Royals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 2016 | 29.5% | 16.1% | 11.1% | Home | 33.6% | 14.3% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 18.8% | 11.9% |
| Dillon Overton | Athletics | L2 Years | 38.2% | 21.4% | 29.0% | 2016 | 38.2% | 21.4% | 29.0% | Home | 32.4% | 13.6% | 24.3% | L14 Days | 61.1% | 30.0% | 55.5% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 29.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 2016 | 28.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | Road | 27.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.4% | 16.0% | 7.9% | 2016 | 27.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | Home | 27.4% | 13.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 28.6% | 22.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 28.1% | 14.2% | 4.2% | 2016 | 35.1% | 19.6% | 14.9% | Road | 27.4% | 12.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 50.0% | 24.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 2016 | 34.3% | 11.6% | 16.1% | Home | 30.1% | 10.1% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 37.2% | 0.0% | 25.6% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 2016 | 29.7% | 13.5% | 10.7% | Home | 28.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 35.2% | 21.2% | 16.9% | 2016 | 35.2% | 21.2% | 16.9% | Home | 41.1% | 17.6% | 24.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 30.0% | 11.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 27.9% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 2016 | 31.5% | 13.4% | 14.1% | Road | 27.6% | 11.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 13.3% | 16.2% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 2016 | 27.4% | 14.3% | 5.6% | Road | 33.3% | 13.6% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| Joel De La Cruz | Braves | L2 Years | 35.7% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 2016 | 35.7% | 13.8% | 14.3% | Road | 43.6% | 21.4% | 25.6% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.5% | 11.4% | 6.1% | 2016 | 27.4% | 14.8% | 6.5% | Road | 26.9% | 12.0% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.5% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 2016 | 30.2% | 13.6% | 8.6% | Home | 31.0% | 18.6% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 5.4% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 31.6% | 16.0% | 15.4% | 2016 | 32.8% | 17.4% | 15.9% | Road | 32.4% | 16.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 23.1% | 8.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 24.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2016 | 26.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | Home | 27.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.3% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 2016 | 31.6% | 11.5% | 16.3% | Road | 30.8% | 9.2% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 2016 | 32.7% | 17.9% | 14.8% | Home | 31.6% | 20.7% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 15.4% | 17.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.4% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 2016 | 30.4% | 8.7% | 12.3% | Home | 29.9% | 13.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.5% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 2016 | 29.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | Road | 28.5% | 12.2% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.5% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 2016 | 24.5% | 15.3% | 2.5% | Home | 23.5% | 7.3% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 16.7% | 23.6% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2016 | 27.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | Road | 29.5% | 9.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% |
| Tim Lincecum | Angels | L2 Years | 35.3% | 15.2% | 18.3% | 2016 | 42.1% | 24.4% | 24.6% | Road | 37.6% | 16.9% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 53.9% | 26.7% | 46.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 2016 | 28.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | Road | 24.4% | 10.4% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 31.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% | RH | 29.5% | 10.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 31.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Road | 31.0% | 14.7% | 12.3% | LH | 31.9% | 14.5% | 13.7% | L7Days | 33.3% | 18.4% | 14.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.8% | 12.6% | 8.7% | RH | 32.3% | 14.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 28.7% | 18.8% | 10.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 34.9% | 16.2% | 19.4% | RH | 32.5% | 12.6% | 15.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | LH | 26.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | L7Days | 30.7% | 10.7% | 16.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.5% | 15.0% | 12.1% | LH | 31.7% | 14.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 34.5% | 19.0% | 12.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.2% | 15.9% | 18.7% | RH | 32.5% | 13.9% | 14.6% | L7Days | 37.4% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.4% | 15.2% | 12.8% | RH | 33.5% | 15.3% | 15.1% | L7Days | 33.7% | 19.4% | 14.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 33.2% | 14.8% | 14.7% | LH | 30.1% | 14.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 33.8% | 4.3% | 21.0% |
| Rays | Home | 33.5% | 12.7% | 14.5% | RH | 33.3% | 14.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 40.9% | 17.5% | 23.4% |
| Angels | Road | 30.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | RH | 30.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Home | 30.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | LH | 27.8% | 12.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.3% | 9.3% |
| Giants | Road | 32.6% | 11.3% | 13.6% | LH | 28.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% |
| Braves | Road | 26.2% | 8.9% | 5.6% | LH | 29.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 34.1% | 3.6% | 18.5% |
| Reds | Road | 29.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | RH | 30.3% | 12.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.8% | 10.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.7% | 13.2% | 13.7% | RH | 33.3% | 12.8% | 16.4% | L7Days | 33.7% | 10.2% | 16.8% |
| Padres | Home | 30.0% | 12.8% | 10.9% | RH | 30.6% | 12.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.8% | 13.3% | 16.1% | RH | 33.8% | 15.0% | 16.1% | L7Days | 31.3% | 12.9% | 16.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | LH | 28.2% | 13.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 33.1% | 15.2% | 19.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | LH | 32.9% | 12.5% | 12.8% | L7Days | 32.1% | 10.6% | 4.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 27.8% | 12.3% | 7.7% | RH | 27.7% | 12.1% | 10.8% | L7Days | 37.8% | 7.7% | 22.8% |
| Mets | Road | 32.8% | 13.3% | 16.3% | RH | 34.3% | 13.4% | 16.1% | L7Days | 31.0% | 14.1% | 10.1% |
| Astros | Home | 32.8% | 15.1% | 14.3% | LH | 32.0% | 14.3% | 14.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% |
| Indians | Road | 31.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% | RH | 31.4% | 14.7% | 13.3% | L7Days | 33.5% | 22.4% | 18.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.6% | 13.7% | 12.2% | RH | 32.8% | 16.2% | 12.5% | L7Days | 29.8% | 20.8% | 8.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 32.6% | 14.2% | 16.1% | RH | 32.4% | 14.4% | 15.2% | L7Days | 30.7% | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.7% | 13.7% | 12.7% | LH | 29.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 28.2% | 12.0% | 6.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 32.3% | 15.3% | 14.5% | RH | 33.2% | 14.3% | 16.2% | L7Days | 43.0% | 16.7% | 28.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 32.2% | 17.5% | 13.9% | RH | 31.6% | 15.8% | 14.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 18.8% | 0.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.4% | 12.5% | 8.1% | RH | 28.8% | 11.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 32.1% | 12.9% | 9.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 20.7% | 9.6% | 2.16 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.17 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.45 | 30.5% | 13.4% | 2.28 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.23 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.23 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 18.5% | 8.2% | 2.26 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.58 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 17.6% | 8.6% | 2.05 | 14.7% | 8.0% | 1.84 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.06 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 1.85 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 31.5% | 9.6% | 3.28 | 33.3% | 8.5% | 3.92 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 17.9% | 9.6% | 1.86 | 14.3% | 8.8% | 1.63 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | 11.8% | 10.3% | 1.15 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 1.48 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 17.2% | 8.7% | 1.98 | 18.3% | 8.8% | 2.08 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 18.9% | 8.7% | 2.17 | 15.7% | 9.5% | 1.65 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 22.2% | 10.9% | 2.04 | 26.3% | 13.3% | 1.98 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 21.7% | 9.4% | 2.31 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.96 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.9% | 8.7% | 2.17 | 15.8% | 7.6% | 2.08 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 20.0% | 8.0% | 2.50 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 2.16 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 17.9% | 9.1% | 1.97 | 14.6% | 8.0% | 1.83 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 20.3% | 11.3% | 1.80 | 15.2% | 9.4% | 1.62 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 11.8% | 7.2% | 1.64 | 14.3% | 8.8% | 1.63 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.2% | 10.3% | 2.35 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.18 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 17.9% | 10.9% | 1.64 | 12.1% | 9.8% | 1.23 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 17.6% | 7.1% | 2.48 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.41 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 26.1% | 11.8% | 2.21 | 28.0% | 13.1% | 2.14 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 11.1% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 9.0% | 7.3% | 1.23 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 27.6% | 14.5% | 1.90 | 27.6% | 15.1% | 1.83 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.19 | 20.6% | 7.1% | 2.90 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 30.1% | 14.7% | 2.05 | 28.1% | 12.3% | 2.28 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.43 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 2.50 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 19.7% | 10.8% | 1.82 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 1.81 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 17.2% | 10.6% | 1.62 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 1.78 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 16.2% | 6.3% | 2.57 | 16.0% | 6.5% | 2.46 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 2.93 | 4 | 1.07 | 4.06 | 1.13 | 3.76 | 0.83 | 4.06 | 3.55 | -0.51 | 3.52 | -0.54 | 3.85 | -0.21 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.08 | 4.49 | 1.41 | 4.21 | 1.13 | 3.2 | 0.12 | 2.25 | 3.48 | 1.23 | 3.08 | 0.83 | 2.51 | 0.26 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 4.76 | 4.91 | 0.15 | 4.66 | -0.1 | 6.49 | 1.73 | 4.76 | 4.91 | 0.15 | 4.66 | -0.1 | 6.49 | 1.73 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 5.13 | 4.71 | -0.42 | 4.8 | -0.33 | 5.12 | -0.01 | 3.5 | 4.56 | 1.06 | 4.26 | 0.76 | 3.41 | -0.09 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 4.72 | 4.94 | 0.22 | 4.87 | 0.15 | 4.44 | -0.28 | 6.29 | 5 | -1.29 | 5.17 | -1.12 | 4.66 | -1.63 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.86 | 3.86 | -1 | 3.63 | -1.23 | 3.98 | -0.88 | 3.94 | 4.01 | 0.07 | 3.81 | -0.13 | 3.57 | -0.37 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 2.65 | 3.01 | 0.36 | 3.3 | 0.65 | 2.82 | 0.17 | 2.89 | 4.15 | 1.26 | 4.13 | 1.24 | 5.49 | 2.6 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 4.66 | 4.34 | -0.32 | 4.6 | -0.06 | 5.11 | 0.45 | 6.3 | 4.56 | -1.74 | 4.65 | -1.65 | 4.69 | -1.61 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | 9.33 | 6.06 | -3.27 | 6.72 | -2.61 | 9.3 | -0.03 | 7.45 | 5.05 | -2.4 | 5.26 | -2.19 | 7.38 | -0.07 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.66 | 4.49 | 0.83 | 4.36 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 0.24 | 1.73 | 4.05 | 2.32 | 3.82 | 2.09 | 2.89 | 1.16 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.46 | 4.45 | 0.99 | 4.32 | 0.86 | 4.47 | 1.01 | 5.6 | 4.78 | -0.82 | 4.94 | -0.66 | 5.74 | 0.14 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.46 | 4.68 | -0.78 | 4.52 | -0.94 | 5.27 | -0.19 | 5.88 | 3.89 | -1.99 | 3.8 | -2.08 | 5.21 | -0.67 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.29 | 4.15 | -0.14 | 4.06 | -0.23 | 3.92 | -0.37 | 2.7 | 5.38 | 2.68 | 5.06 | 2.36 | 4.54 | 1.84 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 4.3 | 4.05 | -0.25 | 3.86 | -0.44 | 3.93 | -0.37 | 6.04 | 4.5 | -1.54 | 4.47 | -1.57 | 4.95 | -1.09 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.52 | 3.33 | -0.19 | 3.11 | -0.41 | 3.9 | 0.38 | 3 | 2.73 | -0.27 | 2.65 | -0.35 | 3.52 | 0.52 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.3 | 4.32 | 0.02 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 4.28 | -0.02 | 5.87 | 5.24 | -0.63 | 5.36 | -0.51 | 6.09 | 0.22 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.7 | 4.04 | 0.34 | 3.91 | 0.21 | 4.11 | 0.41 | 2.56 | 4.57 | 2.01 | 4.36 | 1.8 | 3.55 | 0.99 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 3.8 | 4.98 | 1.18 | 4.92 | 1.12 | 5.08 | 1.28 | 2.31 | 4.76 | 2.45 | 4.93 | 2.62 | 4.34 | 2.03 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.95 | 3.76 | 0.81 | 3.66 | 0.71 | 3.89 | 0.94 | 4.35 | 4.97 | 0.62 | 4.76 | 0.41 | 5.12 | 0.77 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 5.51 | 4.75 | -0.76 | 4.82 | -0.69 | 4.94 | -0.57 | 4.6 | 5.41 | 0.81 | 5.47 | 0.87 | 3.82 | -0.78 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 3.43 | 4.12 | 0.69 | 4.1 | 0.67 | 4.81 | 1.38 | 4.26 | 3.72 | -0.54 | 3.81 | -0.45 | 4.99 | 0.73 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.54 | 3.61 | 0.07 | 3.89 | 0.35 | 3.49 | -0.05 | 1.77 | 3.43 | 1.66 | 3.38 | 1.61 | 2.35 | 0.58 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.22 | 5.29 | 1.07 | 4.89 | 0.67 | 4.75 | 0.53 | 7.22 | 5.35 | -1.87 | 5.01 | -2.21 | 4.81 | -2.41 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 5.13 | 3.34 | -1.79 | 3.28 | -1.85 | 3.9 | -1.23 | 4.8 | 3.61 | -1.19 | 3.44 | -1.36 | 4.17 | -0.63 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.06 | 4.55 | 0.49 | 4.49 | 0.43 | 3.92 | -0.14 | 2.48 | 3.98 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 1.32 | 2.92 | 0.44 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.48 | 2.76 | 0.28 | 2.46 | -0.02 | 2.1 | -0.38 | 2.82 | 3.72 | 0.9 | 3.25 | 0.43 | 3.23 | 0.41 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.41 | 3.8 | -0.61 | 3.88 | -0.53 | 4.2 | -0.21 | 4.57 | 3.3 | -1.27 | 3.19 | -1.38 | 3.83 | -0.74 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 3.2 | 4.44 | 1.24 | 4.45 | 1.25 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 6.07 | 4.17 | -1.9 | 4.62 | -1.45 | 3.2 | -2.87 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 8.49 | 5.16 | -3.33 | 5.28 | -3.21 | 7.05 | -1.44 | 9.55 | 5.11 | -4.44 | 5.38 | -4.17 | 8.03 | -1.52 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 5.7 | 5.54 | -0.16 | 5.58 | -0.12 | 5.22 | -0.48 | 5.14 | 5.92 | 0.78 | 5.99 | 0.85 | 5.24 | 0.1 |
Dallas Keuchel still has just a 67.4 LOB%. In fact, it hasn’t topped 70% in any single month. His 16.5 HR/FB isn’t far from his 14.5 career HR/FB, but that’s slightly less concerning with extreme ground ball pitchers, though more concerning than if he were generating 60+% ground balls like the last two years. He’s already matched his HR total from last season (17) and is three away from his career high, set in 2013, the last time he had a 29% hard hit rate.
Francisco Liriano has a BABIP and LOB% perfectly in line with career rate and more or less within league average ranges. His 19.6 HR/FB is nearly double his career rate though. Perhaps his BABIP will even drop enough in Toronto to cancel out some of the HR concerns. There’s not much the defense can do about the walks though.
Jon Lester has a .261 BABIP much lower than his .298 career rate, but he has a great defense with a good profile. I’ve been waiting for the Chicago defense to regress more than anything, but it hasn’t really happened. This is more about their skillset than his I believe though. As in, if he were traded, I wouldn’t expect him to keep this up, but he may be able to for now. I’m less optimistic about his 83.5 LOB% and also want to talk about his 14.8 HR/FB. It’s not incredibly out of line, but the highest rate of his career (9.8 HR/FB) and the contact is not any harder than the last several year (27.4 Hard%). While the strand rate may decrease, I might expect his HR rate too as well. The higher walk rate is not something easily explained. He has only walked more than three once though.
Michael Pineda still has a .335 BABIP with a 69.3 LOB% and 17.9 HR/FB. He started so poorly that he’s unlikely to catch up, but over that 11 start sample quoted above, he has a .280 BABIP with a 74.5 LOB% and 16.4 HR/FB (remember that three came at home in one start against Boston).
Noah Syndergaard – I just wanted to point out something interesting here. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a half run gap between SIERA and xFIP. They generally run pretty close together. I’m not even sure what that would be, but I’m wondering if the sudden decrease in GBs last month has something to do with it?
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.287 | 0.314 | 0.027 | 0.233 | 7.6% | 90.7% |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.299 | 0.317 | 0.018 | 0.246 | 4.3% | 85.0% |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 0.321 | 0.303 | -0.018 | 0.171 | 0.0% | 93.7% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.296 | -0.009 | 0.241 | 7.4% | 85.5% |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 0.299 | 0.312 | 0.013 | 0.202 | 15.9% | 91.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.308 | 0.314 | 0.006 | 0.193 | 12.6% | 88.6% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.298 | 0.293 | -0.005 | 0.194 | 10.6% | 79.7% |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 0.295 | 0.339 | 0.044 | 0.202 | 9.2% | 86.6% |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | 0.307 | 0.373 | 0.066 | 0.237 | 4.8% | 85.1% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.317 | 0.290 | -0.027 | 0.208 | 8.1% | 90.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.295 | 0.270 | -0.025 | 0.2 | 7.9% | 91.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.277 | 0.308 | 0.031 | 0.176 | 4.1% | 89.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.286 | 0.307 | 0.021 | 0.222 | 9.8% | 85.9% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.295 | 0.310 | 0.015 | 0.194 | 4.5% | 89.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.305 | 0.304 | -0.001 | 0.216 | 9.1% | 93.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.287 | 0.283 | -0.004 | 0.19 | 7.7% | 87.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.305 | 0.275 | -0.03 | 0.251 | 13.5% | 84.4% |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 0.287 | 0.263 | -0.024 | 0.259 | 13.8% | 93.1% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.258 | 0.261 | 0.003 | 0.195 | 11.3% | 87.1% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.312 | 0.328 | 0.016 | 0.193 | 11.4% | 87.9% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.284 | 0.260 | -0.024 | 0.216 | 7.6% | 92.2% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.306 | 0.264 | -0.042 | 0.194 | 10.7% | 82.9% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.287 | 0.284 | -0.003 | 0.202 | 2.7% | 90.7% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.293 | 0.335 | 0.042 | 0.219 | 2.7% | 85.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.296 | 0.292 | -0.004 | 0.221 | 7.8% | 87.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.303 | 0.347 | 0.044 | 0.23 | 4.9% | 83.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.278 | 0.291 | 0.013 | 0.227 | 15.3% | 83.1% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.301 | 0.283 | -0.018 | 0.199 | 9.2% | 77.7% |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 0.301 | 0.422 | 0.121 | 0.242 | 2.4% | 87.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.299 | 0.318 | 0.019 | 0.188 | 4.7% | 91.5% |
Noah Syndergaard has a high LD% and only four popups this year (14 last year). That still doesn’t explain the extremely high BABIP. Earlier in the season it was probably a case of poor positioning and too many grounders just getting through. More recently, contact has been a bit harder.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The tier system is back in play today, as there definitely appears to be some interesting pricing and separation today, even if we don’t have an overall monster in a decent or better spot. I believe at least one pitcher is severely underpriced today though and I’m almost surprised that at least one site hasn’t been more aggressive with him yet.
Value Tier One
Jameson Taillon (2t) is beginning to show why he is such a highly regarded prospect. His strikeout rate is rising, while he hasn’t walked a batter in four starts. He’s also in a great spot at home against a weakened Cincinnati offense for less than $8K on either site. I’m stunned that DraftKings hasn’t been more aggressive with his price.
Value Tier Two
Dallas Keuchel (2t) – Perhaps we should thank Detroit for ruining an otherwise great month for him because that seemed to keep his cost in check, below $8.5K on either site. The ground balls have been a bit weaker with more swinging strikes over the last month. It’s not Cy Keuchel, but he’s an above average pitcher again. The Rangers are better than they were before the deadline, but were barely average at that point. It should be a manageable spot.
Value Tier Three
Michael Pineda (4t) still gets out of line with his traditional game log once in a while, but he’s struck out over 30% of batters in his last 11 starts with at least some improvement in the HR department with more in the BABIP department. While Cleveland has struggled on the road, I’m not going to consider this an easy spot by any means. This could be a bit rough, but his strikeout rate should at least give him a nice floor to work with for $8.6K on either site with much more potential.
Noah Syndergaard (1) is still a great pitcher having a great season even if he hasn’t been able to sustain the expectations his early season dominance thrust upon him. He’s another pitcher that DraftKings has strangely never gotten too aggressive on, rarely rising much above $11K. He’s in a tough spot tonight, but that’s why he’s all the way down here instead of in the top two tiers as he normally is.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jon Lester (4t) has struggled over the last month, but definitely had his best outing last time out. He’s in an interesting spot in Oakland tonight. The A’s are better vs LHP and may hurt his strikeout rate, but don’t hit for much power at home. It’s still a fair matchup for him in terms of run prevention and he’s right around the $10K mark tonight.
Jaime Garcia has not been pitching well and had a concerning velocity drop in his last start, so this is a risky proposition, but he does cost less than $8K at home against the Braves.
Francisco Liriano – Although it may not show in his overall results, the peripherals depict an improving pitcher who is in a decent spot tonight against a low power offense that is really struggling for less than $8K.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window