Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, July 21st
This could be the strongest pitching slate we’ve seen this year. We potentially have both Cy Young winners on the mound along with a lot of strong value. Second tier pitchers last night may not even make it today. That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of pitchers to attack offensively either. There’s a Coors game on the menu and Ubaldo faces the Astros. One of the more interesting things happening tonight is Scherzer facing Godley in Arizona. Baseball is hard to predict, but this should be a lot of fun.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | -2.5 | 5.49 | 4.67 | 39.7% | 0.89 | 5.47 | LOS | 120 | 108 | 141 | |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.1 | 3.57 | 5.85 | 50.8% | 0.96 | 3.01 | 3.5 | MIL | 97 | 96 | 76 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -0.7 | 4.74 | 6.04 | 46.5% | 0.96 | 4.21 | 5.07 | TEX | 81 | 95 | 56 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.8 | 3.47 | 5.84 | 57.1% | 0.89 | 2.52 | 3.2 | ATL | 92 | 93 | 87 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 6.6 | 5.61 | 6. | 29.3% | 0.89 | 5.74 | 6.71 | NYY | 99 | 116 | 66 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 2.8 | 4.28 | 5.41 | 38.9% | 1.04 | 4.93 | 3.43 | MIN | 100 | 99 | 91 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -3.5 | 3.8 | 6.24 | 53.5% | 0.96 | 3.81 | 4.79 | CHC | 99 | 93 | 152 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 1.1 | 4.5 | 5.79 | 49.9% | 0.89 | 4.57 | 7.16 | SEA | 111 | 100 | 90 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 7 | 2.98 | 6.95 | 40.4% | 0.91 | 3.35 | 1.76 | ANA | 98 | 84 | 84 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 1.8 | 4.49 | 6.29 | 42.6% | 1.04 | 4.43 | 7.34 | DET | 88 | 96 | 131 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 7.4 | 4.3 | 4.01 | 46.0% | 1.02 | 5.4 | 5 | MIA | 102 | 94 | 71 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.8 | 4.12 | 5.83 | 35.8% | 1.06 | 4.88 | 3.54 | CHW | 94 | 87 | 61 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.2 | 3.67 | 6.33 | 53.1% | 0.96 | 3.67 | 5.48 | STL | 88 | 97 | 82 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.2 | 4.93 | 5.63 | 40.8% | 1.06 | 5.58 | 6.98 | KAN | 87 | 88 | 94 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | -4.2 | 4.73 | 5.51 | 41.3% | 1.39 | 5.21 | 6.23 | PIT | 86 | 87 | 92 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -0.9 | 3.93 | 6.39 | 43.4% | 0.93 | 3.56 | 3.44 | SDG | 75 | 85 | 126 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.1 | 4.98 | 5.15 | 42.9% | 1.02 | 5.03 | 5.94 | CIN | 98 | 98 | 69 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.8 | 4.43 | 5.91 | 32.5% | 1.09 | 4.6 | 5.82 | CLE | 106 | 103 | 50 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -1.3 | 4.78 | 5.43 | 49.3% | 0.96 | 4.6 | 8.33 | PHI | 92 | 84 | 115 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.1 | 2.84 | 6.76 | 35.5% | 1.13 | 3.5 | 2.92 | ARI | 107 | 102 | 95 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -5.8 | 4.14 | 5.65 | 42.3% | 1.02 | 4.65 | 3.13 | BAL | 98 | 97 | 131 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | -12.2 | 5.44 | 6.4 | 54.0% | 0.91 | 5.84 | 5.91 | NYM | 93 | 102 | 107 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 1.2 | 4.41 | 5.93 | 42.3% | 0.91 | 4.38 | 4.82 | BOS | 100 | 91 | 59 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -1.4 | 3.8 | 5.85 | 49.6% | 0.91 | 3.49 | 5.98 | OAK | 86 | 79 | 96 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0 | 4.18 | 5.73 | 0.47 | 1.09 | 3.88 | 9.65 | TOR | 93 | 91 | 81 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | -5.8 | 3.44 | 5.65 | 0.572 | 0.93 | 3.39 | 2.62 | SFO | 74 | 79 | 82 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -3.2 | 4.5 | 5.21 | 0.463 | 1.39 | 4.25 | 4.53 | COL | 87 | 79 | 139 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.6 | 4.73 | 5.32 | 0.486 | 1.02 | 4.74 | 6.11 | HOU | 136 | 132 | 121 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.5 | 3.54 | 6.09 | 0.402 | 0.96 | 3.45 | 4.52 | TAM | 116 | 112 | 83 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5.3 | 3.94 | 5.67 | 0.535 | 1.13 | 4.2 | 2.78 | WAS | 104 | 111 | 132 |
Aaron Nola threw six innings of two run ball with seven strikeouts last time out. It was a down game considering he’d struck out at least eight in each of his previous four. That’s a 21.4 K-BB% over the last month. The Brewers are an overall average offense with a lot of power (19.7 HR/FB vs RHP), but a lot of strikeouts (25.2 K% vs RHP).
Alex Wood came out of the break with six shutout innings, tying a season low with four strikeouts in Miami. He continued to dominate contact with a 66.7 GB% and -12.5 Hard-Soft%, while his 13.8 SwStr% was his fourth straight start at that mark or better. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings, his 23.3 K-BB% is sixth, while his 63.7 GB% is second. His 83.9 mph aEV and 24.6% 95+ mph aEV are both easily best on the board. The Braves are a below average offense, made a more enticing matchup in a severely negative run environment.
Chris Sale has struck out fewer than nine just twice over his last 18 starts. He tied a season high with 13 last time out. The Angels have an 8.9 HR/FB against LHP. The park upgrade really is not fair.
Jeff Samardzija has allowed 13 HRs over his last 10 starts. He has allowed at least six runs five times this year now, but has gone fewer than six innings just once in his last 15 and his 23.7 K-BB% is still fifth best in the majors. At home, he has not allowed more than four runs in any outing with no fewer than five strikeouts in eight starts. He’s also in a great spot against the Padres (26.6 K% on the road, 25.9 K% vs RHP).
Max Scherzer has double digit strikeouts in nine of his last 10 and 11 of his last 14. He’s failed to go at least six innings just once this season and has gone at least seven innings in eight of his last 10 starts. His 18.3 SwStr% over the last month leads a board with four arms above 16% over that span. Over the last month, he has allowed just one HR with a -1.4 Hard-Soft%. The biggest issue is a major park downgrade tonight. The Diamondbacks have a 24.3 Hard-Soft% at home and a 108 sOPS+ (seventh) against fly ball pitchers.
Trevor Cahill allowed three HRs in his second start back, but settled down with 6.2 innings of one run ball in his last start. He’s struck out 16 of his last 50 batters. His 29.5 K% is behind just three studs on today’s board. He adds a 56.8 GB% with an 85.3 mph aEV and 27.9% 95+ mph EV. The .319 BABIP may be partially blamed on a poor defense. He may not be in a high strikeout spot in San Francisco, but it’s the top contact and run prevention spot on the board (3.1 Hard-Soft% at home, 6.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Yu Darvish has failed to exceed six strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, though his 30 day strikeout and swinging strike rates remain in line with his season rates. A down season for him would be a quality season for most other arms in the league, but his 17.4 K-BB% is his worst since his rookie season, while contact management has been average. Tampa Bay is a quality offense with power (18.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but a 24% strikeout rate at home and vs RHP.
Zack Godley is coming off his worst start of the season. He allowed seven runs (six earned) with a multiple HRs for the first time this season. He also struck out a season high nine of 28 batters. His 33.3 GB% was just the second time he dropped below 50% in a start this season. He looks to get back on track in one of the toughest matchups on the board, hosting the Nationals (25.4 HR/FB since the break). His 17.6 K-BB% comes with room for improvement according to his SwStr%. In fact, both have ascended over the last month.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Ian Kennedy (.214 – 74.3% – 15) has increased his strikeout over the last month, but remains a HR machine (18 over his last 14 starts). He may not be bad in this spot, hosting the White Sox, but there are far better choices in his price range.
Alex Cobb (.279 – 74.4% – 10.2) has a 9.3% unearned run rate and 21.9 Hard-Soft% to go along with just a 4.9 SwStr% over the last month.
Ervin Santana (.217 – 84.3% – 12.9) walked five (three strikeouts) in his last start, but still somehow managed to escape with just two runs. He’s also allowed 17 HRs over his last 13 starts.
C.C. Sabathia (.272 – 76% – 11.7) only has three unearned runs and no particularly strong outliers in the quoted numbers, but just a 5.6 SwStr% over the last month. He’s walked eight of his last 38 batters.
Matt Garza (.282 – 70.3% – 9.2) also has a 10.8% unearned run rate to go along with just a 16.1 K% this year.
Jose Urena (.255 – 77.6% – 11.9) has just a 7.3 K-BB%, nearly identical to his 7.8% last season. Where it gets interesting is his contact authority rates. He has an 85.6 mph aEV and 29.5% 95+ mph EV, but 9.6% Barrels/BBE.
James Shields (.244 – 81% – 16.7)
Paul Blackburn (.230 – 89.1% – 9.5)
Andrew Moore (.200 – 81.1% – 18.2)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Fiers incorporated a sinker in the middle of May and has taken off since then with a 16.2 K-BB% and 3.5 Hard-Soft% since then. His ground ball rate has actually gone down a bit somehow, but that’s not really a major issue with how well he’s been pitching, including a season high 11 strikeouts last time out. Estimators are over a run above his ERA due to a 79.7 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB over this span, but there’s certainly been improvement. The other interesting thing is that while he has a fairly prominent reverse split both this season and for his career, it’s essentially disappeared since this shift in pitch usage. That’s important against a predominantly RH Baltimore offense that is generally much stronger vs RHP in a park that favors RH power. That doesn’t mean they’ve actually been good against RHP this year though (15.7 K-BB%). He’s a tough call at his current cost, but I’d be more apt to consider him on a weaker board.
Steven Matz has allowed 12 ERs in 5.1 IP over his last two outings with three HRs, striking out just three of 34 batters. The interesting thing is that he’s begun throwing his slider again, a season high 20.3% of pitches in his last outing to no avail, though he did generate a 15.4 SwStr% during the short time he was in there. Perhaps he just needs to dust the cob webs off of it and his 25.3 O-Swing% will improve. The hope is that he bounces back at some point and tonight would be nice against Oakland (26 K% on the road and vs LHP), who have just a 9.8 HR/FB vs southpaws this year and lose a DH tonight.
Trevor Williams has actually been interesting and we may have to talk about him soon after he escapes Coors.
Ricky Nolasco has a pretty amazing 13.3 SwStr% over the last month, but no pitcher has allowed more HRs this season.
Trevor Bauer is really just seeing his strikeout rate conform to his SwStr% recently, although that’s been down as well.
Marco Estrada has a league average strikeout rate and 0.0 K-BB% over the last month. Let that sink in.
Jeff Hoffman has just a 5.7 K-BB% at home this season.
Aaron Blair was scratched from his AAA start last night to replace Jaime Garcia, who was supposedly traded to the Twins. However, that trade has not yet been completed and Garcia is still listed on MLB.com. He may be the only pitcher ever to be unscratched.
Home Bailey
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 14.2% | 10.5% | Road | 13.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.9% | 6.5% | Home | 27.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 7.0% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.6% | 6.5% | Home | 18.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 12.3% | 7.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.1% | 7.7% | Home | 30.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 4.8% |
| Andrew Moore | Mariners | L2 Years | 11.3% | 2.1% | Home | 12.2% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.3% | Road | 18.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.2% | Road | 25.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 7.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.0% | 9.1% | Road | 18.3% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 20.8% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 4.9% | Road | 28.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 43.9% | 3.5% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.8% | Home | 19.1% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 18.5% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.2% | Home | 16.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.3% | Home | 22.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 3.9% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.4% | 8.2% | Home | 26.3% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 9.3% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 18.1% | 10.4% | Road | 14.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 3.7% | 11.1% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.5% | 8.4% | Home | 15.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 5.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.4% | Home | 22.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 1.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.0% | 8.2% | Road | 16.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.8% | Road | 23.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.2% | Road | 14.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 4.8% | 14.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.8% | 6.0% | Road | 32.3% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 9.3% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 7.1% | Road | 18.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.8% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 10.3% | 7.7% | Road | 0.0% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 9.3% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.6% | 6.1% | Home | 18.2% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.8% | Home | 22.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.3% | 9.4% | Home | 22.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.2% | Road | 26.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 2.0% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.1% | 6.6% | Road | 18.2% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.1% | 10.9% | Home | 18.8% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 7.9% | Road | 28.9% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 8.9% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.5% | 8.2% | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 3.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Home | 23.0% | 10.8% | RH | 22.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 12.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.5% | 8.8% | RH | 25.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 29.0% | 6.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.4% | 8.1% | RH | 23.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.3% |
| Braves | Road | 19.6% | 7.4% | LH | 19.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 4.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.3% | 9.2% | RH | 22.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.1% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 11.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.9% | 10.3% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.5% | 8.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.4% | 9.0% | LH | 18.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.6% |
| Angels | Home | 18.5% | 7.7% | LH | 19.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.4% | 9.0% | RH | 22.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 15.6% | 9.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.3% | 6.4% | RH | 20.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 6.0% | RH | 22.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.7% | 4.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.1% | 8.3% | RH | 21.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.0% |
| Royals | Home | 19.0% | 6.5% | RH | 20.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.2% | 8.7% | RH | 18.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 14.5% | 7.1% |
| Padres | Road | 26.6% | 7.1% | RH | 25.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.5% |
| Reds | Home | 22.2% | 8.9% | RH | 21.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 8.9% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.6% | RH | 19.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.0% | 8.3% | RH | 23.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.4% | 9.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.0% | 7.3% | RH | 22.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.6% |
| Mets | Home | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 18.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 9.1% | RH | 19.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 26.0% | 8.9% | LH | 26.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.6% | 10.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.9% | 9.3% | RH | 20.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 11.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | RH | 19.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.9% | 7.6% | RH | 22.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Astros | Road | 17.7% | 9.0% | RH | 17.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.9% | 9.8% |
| Rays | Home | 24.7% | 9.7% | RH | 24.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.5% | 8.8% | RH | 19.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 29.0% | 15.7% | 8.0% | 2017 | Road | 36.4% | 17.9% | 18.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.8% | 13.3% | 7.9% | 2017 | 32.1% | 12.0% | 9.6% | Home | 29.7% | 18.6% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 7.1% | 19.0% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 35.2% | 12.0% | 20.2% | 2017 | 36.4% | 10.2% | 21.9% | Home | 38.9% | 10.9% | 22.1% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 7.7% | 2.2% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.8% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2017 | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% | Home | 23.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 0.0% | -12.5% |
| Andrew Moore | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.7% | 18.2% | 21.6% | 2017 | 33.7% | 18.2% | 21.6% | Home | 31.9% | 13.5% | 20.3% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 26.3% | 25.0% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.6% | 17.5% | 16.3% | 2017 | 38.9% | 19.1% | 23.5% | Road | 31.4% | 18.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 25.0% | 31.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 2017 | 32.7% | 14.6% | 14.0% | Road | 33.3% | 9.9% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 25.0% | 7.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.3% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 11.7% | 13.1% | Road | 26.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | -18.7% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 2017 | 29.4% | 8.7% | 11.7% | Road | 29.8% | 6.1% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 2017 | 27.6% | 12.9% | 7.5% | Home | 28.7% | 12.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 12.5% | 21.1% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 30.5% | 21.6% | 15.6% | 2017 | 30.4% | 31.6% | 16.5% | Home | 40.0% | 35.0% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 33.3% | 17.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.0% | 13.4% | 21.0% | 2017 | 39.7% | 15.0% | 26.7% | Home | 40.9% | 12.4% | 25.4% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 18.8% | 42.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 2017 | 28.2% | 15.3% | 6.4% | Home | 23.4% | 8.9% | 0.3% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 16.7% | -4.9% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.5% | 17.3% | 15.8% | 2017 | 35.1% | 16.7% | 15.7% | Road | 35.2% | 16.8% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 11.1% | 26.1% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.4% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 2017 | 34.4% | 8.4% | 16.7% | Home | 37.5% | 11.5% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 8.7% | 20.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 2017 | 28.9% | 17.4% | 5.9% | Home | 31.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 2017 | 32.4% | 11.9% | 13.2% | Road | 32.6% | 13.5% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 23.5% | 28.6% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.1% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 2017 | 30.9% | 12.1% | 13.3% | Road | 31.5% | 10.2% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 54.6% | 0.0% | 54.6% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.9% | 10.6% | 17.3% | 2017 | 33.7% | 9.2% | 16.8% | Road | 31.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 2017 | 26.3% | 9.6% | 5.2% | Road | 31.3% | 11.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 8.3% | 3.4% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.1% | 13.3% | 2017 | 29.7% | 20.8% | 9.2% | Road | 32.5% | 19.7% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 21.4% | -10.4% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 25.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 2017 | 25.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% | Road | 18.5% | 10.0% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 14.3% | 8.9% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.2% | 14.6% | 21.0% | 2017 | 37.6% | 19.5% | 23.3% | Home | 31.8% | 11.9% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 27.3% | 19.3% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 29.5% | 14.2% | 8.3% | 2017 | 31.8% | 16.3% | 10.6% | Home | 36.3% | 21.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 44.8% | 27.3% | 20.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 2017 | 37.5% | 17.1% | 23.5% | Home | 34.4% | 17.1% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 30.6% | 17.9% | 8.4% | 2017 | 30.6% | 15.4% | 8.1% | Road | 35.8% | 22.0% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 30.0% | 21.9% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.9% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 2017 | 30.9% | 9.6% | 5.7% | Road | 28.8% | 22.0% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 2.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 2017 | 34.7% | 20.6% | 18.1% | Home | 33.0% | 17.8% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 8.3% | 25.7% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 2017 | 32.4% | 12.5% | 13.2% | Road | 27.4% | 9.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 6.7% | -2.6% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.0% | 16.1% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.1% | 13.0% | 9.7% | Home | 37.8% | 19.4% | 26.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 33.3% | 16.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Home | 36.5% | 17.6% | 21.5% | RH | 35.4% | 15.1% | 20.2% | L7Days | 41.1% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.1% | 18.2% | 11.3% | RH | 33.7% | 19.7% | 14.5% | L7Days | 32.9% | 13.5% | 14.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.4% | 15.8% | 9.7% | RH | 33.7% | 17.0% | 14.2% | L7Days | 26.6% | 10.6% | 10.8% |
| Braves | Road | 31.2% | 12.3% | 13.2% | LH | 27.7% | 14.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 27.4% | 17.3% | 6.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.1% | 11.9% | 12.3% | RH | 31.6% | 16.8% | 12.6% | L7Days | 27.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% |
| Twins | Home | 33.5% | 11.5% | 17.0% | RH | 32.9% | 13.2% | 16.1% | L7Days | 28.2% | 12.8% | 8.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.8% | 16.3% | 13.2% | RH | 30.5% | 14.6% | 12.8% | L7Days | 36.7% | 23.9% | 26.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.7% | 12.3% | 9.6% | LH | 30.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 26.7% | 15.5% | 7.2% |
| Angels | Home | 28.4% | 13.3% | 9.7% | LH | 30.7% | 8.9% | 13.3% | L7Days | 27.7% | 15.4% | 6.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.9% | 11.8% | 18.6% | RH | 41.3% | 11.7% | 26.1% | L7Days | 36.4% | 13.2% | 24.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.2% | 14.5% | 9.0% | RH | 31.4% | 14.7% | 11.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 14.0% | 8.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.9% | 14.3% | 14.4% | RH | 31.1% | 13.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.7% | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.0% | 13.0% | 14.7% | RH | 31.6% | 13.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.6% | 11.8% |
| Royals | Home | 31.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | RH | 32.0% | 11.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 28.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.9% | 12.0% | 10.5% | RH | 30.2% | 10.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 29.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% |
| Padres | Road | 30.3% | 14.6% | 8.4% | RH | 28.7% | 14.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 33.5% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| Reds | Home | 28.0% | 15.0% | 6.5% | RH | 29.6% | 14.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.1% | 13.4% | RH | 33.6% | 11.7% | 17.1% | L7Days | 27.7% | 6.0% | 11.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.6% | 14.5% | 10.8% | RH | 30.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 40.2% | 9.3% | 21.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.3% | 15.7% | 24.3% | RH | 35.8% | 14.8% | 18.6% | L7Days | 30.0% | 14.5% | 8.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.2% | 16.4% | 9.6% | RH | 31.0% | 15.7% | 10.3% | L7Days | 34.2% | 19.7% | 17.1% |
| Mets | Home | 33.7% | 10.9% | 14.9% | RH | 35.2% | 13.0% | 18.0% | L7Days | 34.2% | 14.3% | 14.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 11.8% | 13.3% | RH | 34.9% | 10.6% | 16.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 35.6% | 12.5% | 16.4% | LH | 32.2% | 9.8% | 14.9% | L7Days | 28.7% | 15.5% | 9.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.2% | 14.4% | 13.5% | RH | 31.2% | 14.9% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.0% | 11.6% | 13.0% |
| Giants | Home | 24.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | RH | 28.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.5% | 16.5% | 12.6% | RH | 29.7% | 13.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 36.3% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| Astros | Road | 33.5% | 16.1% | 15.1% | RH | 33.5% | 16.1% | 16.2% | L7Days | 30.9% | 11.7% | 17.6% |
| Rays | Home | 38.3% | 16.2% | 20.6% | RH | 36.1% | 18.0% | 18.7% | L7Days | 28.4% | 13.2% | 9.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.6% | 16.1% | 13.2% | RH | 31.9% | 15.1% | 14.9% | L7Days | 37.7% | 25.4% | 19.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | ||||||
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 24.7% | 10.2% | 2.42 | 29.3% | 11.0% | 2.66 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 15.6% | 6.7% | 2.33 | 14.1% | 4.9% | 2.88 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 30.2% | 13.6% | 2.22 | 31.2% | 17.7% | 1.76 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 11.3% | 7.4% | 1.53 | 11.3% | 7.4% | 1.53 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 20.9% | 8.6% | 2.43 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 2.74 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.49 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 2.11 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.7% | 8.5% | 2.20 | 10.5% | 5.6% | 1.88 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.4% | 16.3% | 2.23 | 39.6% | 16.8% | 2.36 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 18.4% | 9.2% | 2.00 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 1.76 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 15.6% | 11.4% | 1.37 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 1.37 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 21.4% | 9.4% | 2.28 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 2.27 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 22.7% | 9.1% | 2.49 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 2.63 |
| James Shields | CHW | 16.3% | 8.5% | 1.92 | 12.5% | 6.5% | 1.92 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 20.5% | 8.7% | 2.36 | 12.9% | 5.9% | 2.19 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 26.4% | 10.8% | 2.44 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.16 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 15.9% | 8.7% | 1.83 | 18.4% | 9.1% | 2.02 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 25.0% | 11.7% | 2.14 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.00 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 1.83 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.7% | 16.2% | 2.20 | 37.7% | 18.3% | 2.06 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 23.0% | 9.8% | 2.35 | 31.0% | 9.7% | 3.20 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 10.3% | 6.3% | 1.63 | 10.3% | 6.3% | 1.63 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 19.7% | 11.2% | 1.76 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 1.56 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 14.9% | 6.8% | 2.19 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 2.15 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.7% | 8.4% | 3.06 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 2.70 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 29.5% | 13.5% | 2.19 | 29.4% | 12.7% | 2.31 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.00 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.18 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 18.7% | 7.7% | 2.43 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 2.33 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 25.6% | 11.0% | 2.33 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 2.36 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 25.0% | 14.5% | 1.72 | 29.7% | 16.2% | 1.83 |
Most outliers are small sample size today. Zack Godley is one of two larger sample ones and the one we are most interested in today. We’ve seen an increase in both his strikeout and swinging strike rates over the last month. His whiff rate has been elite.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | ||||||||||||||||
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.54 | 3.84 | 0.3 | 3.61 | 0.07 | 3.42 | -0.12 | 3.02 | -0.52 | 1.78 | 3.45 | 1.67 | 3.26 | 1.48 | 2.85 | 1.07 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.59 | 4.79 | 1.2 | 4.62 | 1.03 | 4.16 | 0.57 | 4.02 | 0.43 | 2.21 | 4.93 | 2.72 | 4.72 | 2.51 | 3.84 | 1.63 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.56 | 2.82 | 1.26 | 2.58 | 1.02 | 2.04 | 0.48 | 2.48 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 3.18 | 2.46 | 2.63 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 1.05 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 5.25 | 5.61 | 0.36 | 5.85 | 0.6 | 6.93 | 1.68 | 7.98 | 2.73 | 5.25 | 5.61 | 0.36 | 5.85 | 0.6 | 6.93 | 1.68 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 6.08 | 4.12 | -1.96 | 4.62 | -1.46 | 5.58 | -0.5 | 6.68 | 0.60 | 4.07 | 3.73 | -0.34 | 3.76 | -0.31 | 3.46 | -0.61 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.36 | 3.86 | 0.5 | 3.68 | 0.32 | 3.77 | 0.41 | 2.86 | -0.50 | 4.97 | 4.75 | -0.22 | 4.73 | -0.24 | 6.03 | 1.06 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.54 | 4.66 | 1.12 | 4.44 | 0.9 | 4.21 | 0.67 | 4.77 | 1.23 | 4.15 | 7.71 | 3.56 | 7.03 | 2.88 | 4.98 | 0.83 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.59 | 2.48 | -0.11 | 2.6 | 0.01 | 1.99 | -0.6 | 1.80 | -0.79 | 1.98 | 2.21 | 0.23 | 2.58 | 0.6 | 2.56 | 0.58 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.99 | 4.85 | 1.86 | 4.88 | 1.89 | 4.76 | 1.77 | 3.61 | 0.62 | 4.31 | 4.71 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 0.49 | 5.02 | 0.71 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 10.13 | 5.11 | -5.02 | 4.95 | -5.18 | 7.02 | -3.11 | 9.46 | -0.67 | 10.13 | 5.11 | -5.02 | 4.95 | -5.18 | 7.02 | -3.11 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.32 | 4.68 | 0.36 | 5.04 | 0.72 | 5.27 | 0.95 | 4.95 | 0.63 | 2.9 | 4.07 | 1.17 | 4.49 | 1.59 | 5.07 | 2.17 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.17 | 4.15 | -0.02 | 4.05 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 0.08 | 4.43 | 0.26 | 2.97 | 5.12 | 2.15 | 4.83 | 1.86 | 4.65 | 1.68 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.1 | 5.63 | 0.53 | 6.21 | 1.11 | 6.82 | 1.72 | 7.32 | 2.22 | 8.1 | 6.12 | -1.98 | 7 | -1.1 | 8.43 | 0.33 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 4.33 | 4.43 | 0.1 | 4.76 | 0.43 | 3.86 | -0.47 | 5.01 | 0.68 | 6.53 | 5.57 | -0.96 | 5.76 | -0.77 | 5.01 | -1.52 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.86 | 3.21 | -1.65 | 3.07 | -1.79 | 3.51 | -1.35 | 3.22 | -1.64 | 5.01 | 3.21 | -1.8 | 3.05 | -1.96 | 3.81 | -1.2 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.93 | 5.14 | 1.21 | 5.53 | 1.6 | 5.22 | 1.29 | 5.65 | 1.72 | 4.68 | 4.96 | 0.28 | 5.44 | 0.76 | 5.33 | 0.65 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.33 | 4.26 | -1.07 | 4.59 | -0.74 | 4.31 | -1.02 | 7.39 | 2.06 | 6.86 | 6.71 | -0.15 | 7.08 | 0.22 | 6.08 | -0.78 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 3.84 | 4.84 | 1 | 4.64 | 0.8 | 3.99 | 0.15 | 4.50 | 0.66 | 2.42 | 5.21 | 2.79 | 5.01 | 2.59 | 3.45 | 1.03 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.01 | 2.7 | 0.69 | 3.09 | 1.08 | 2.56 | 0.55 | 1.76 | -0.25 | 1.3 | 2.51 | 1.21 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.63 | 0.33 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.75 | 4.22 | 0.47 | 4.25 | 0.5 | 5.18 | 1.43 | 5.09 | 1.34 | 3.14 | 3.63 | 0.49 | 3.97 | 0.83 | 3.66 | 0.52 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 1.83 | 5.43 | 3.6 | 5.29 | 3.46 | 4.71 | 2.88 | 5.77 | 3.94 | 1.83 | 5.44 | 3.61 | 5.29 | 3.46 | 4.71 | 2.88 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.82 | 4.46 | -0.36 | 4.58 | -0.24 | 5.52 | 0.7 | 6.09 | 1.27 | 4.3 | 4.55 | 0.25 | 4.54 | 0.24 | 4.87 | 0.57 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 4.58 | 4.96 | 0.38 | 4.92 | 0.34 | 5.35 | 0.77 | 5.74 | 1.16 | 5.33 | 4.97 | -0.36 | 4.99 | -0.34 | 5.38 | 0.05 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.59 | 3.93 | -1.66 | 3.7 | -1.89 | 4.09 | -1.5 | 4.35 | -1.24 | 5.79 | 4.61 | -1.18 | 4.42 | -1.37 | 4.1 | -1.69 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 3.14 | 3.3 | 0.16 | 3.07 | -0.07 | 3.22 | 0.08 | 2.44 | -0.70 | 2.81 | 2.97 | 0.16 | 2.72 | -0.09 | 3.82 | 1.01 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.69 | 4.54 | -0.15 | 4.47 | -0.22 | 3.93 | -0.76 | 4.38 | -0.31 | 3.81 | 3.83 | 0.02 | 3.37 | -0.44 | 2.57 | -1.24 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.01 | 4.96 | -2.05 | 4.96 | -2.05 | 5.96 | -1.05 | 7.14 | 0.13 | 9 | 5.17 | -3.83 | 5.36 | -3.64 | 6.38 | -2.62 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.45 | 3.93 | 0.48 | 3.87 | 0.42 | 3.72 | 0.27 | 2.92 | -0.53 | 3.73 | 3.59 | -0.14 | 3.43 | -0.3 | 2.5 | -1.23 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 3.09 | 3.58 | 0.49 | 3.29 | 0.2 | 3.24 | 0.15 | 2.78 | -0.31 | 4.56 | 3.16 | -1.4 | 3.23 | -1.33 | 3.37 | -1.19 |
Aaron Nola has a .247 BABIP and 90.9 LOB% over the last month. Batted ball rates haven’t been up to his usual standards (45 GB%, 37 Hard%), but elite peripherals have made them matter less.
Alex Wood has a .249 BABIP with a strong defense, excellent profile and muted contact. His career rate is more than fifty points higher (.303), but he’s never been this good before. His 81.6 LOB% isn’t very concerning, but a 4.9 HR/FB can’t hold.
Max Scherzer now has a .228 BABIP. Regular readers know how often I tout his batted ball profile, but that may be too low. His 81.8 LOB% and 9.6 HR/FB are bordering on acceptable, though he gets a wider range than most pitchers.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 0.292 | ||||||||||
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.296 | 0.294 | -0.002 | 48.1% | 0.205 | 6.7% | 84.0% | 86.3 | 5.00% | 31.30% | 240 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.287 | 0.279 | -0.008 | 45.2% | 0.221 | 6.3% | 91.6% | 87.8 | 5.30% | 34.90% | 393 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.282 | 0.249 | -0.033 | 63.7% | 0.162 | 12.2% | 83.4% | 83.9 | 1.90% | 24.60% | 207 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 0.278 | 0.200 | -0.078 | 29.3% | 0.171 | 9.1% | 90.1% | 90.5 | 7.20% | 44.60% | 83 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.307 | 0.309 | 0.002 | 36.3% | 0.204 | 5.9% | 87.5% | 86.8 | 9.30% | 34.00% | 162 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.295 | 0.261 | -0.034 | 48.9% | 0.186 | 10.7% | 86.4% | 87.1 | 6.20% | 33.60% | 321 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.272 | -0.018 | 50.2% | 0.186 | 3.9% | 88.9% | 86.4 | 4.40% | 32.10% | 252 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.306 | 0.288 | -0.018 | 37.0% | 0.211 | 11.8% | 77.3% | 86.5 | 5.90% | 29.70% | 306 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.296 | 0.217 | -0.079 | 43.9% | 0.155 | 12.2% | 89.3% | 85.8 | 4.30% | 32.00% | 369 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.293 | 0.397 | 0.104 | 46.8% | 0.286 | 5.3% | 86.5% | 87 | 5.10% | 38.00% | 79 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.298 | 0.214 | -0.084 | 38.7% | 0.126 | 7.1% | 82.7% | 89.4 | 10.70% | 33.60% | 262 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.284 | 0.290 | 0.006 | 46.5% | 0.221 | 7.1% | 85.2% | 86.6 | 5.40% | 32.10% | 312 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.244 | -0.044 | 35.8% | 0.149 | 6.1% | 84.9% | 87.9 | 9.00% | 39.60% | 134 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.299 | 0.274 | -0.025 | 36.3% | 0.181 | 6.0% | 88.9% | 86.9 | 7.50% | 34.90% | 186 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.315 | 0.329 | 0.014 | 42.8% | 0.246 | 7.8% | 84.0% | 86.2 | 5.30% | 30.80% | 357 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.295 | 0.255 | -0.04 | 39.3% | 0.178 | 10.2% | 88.3% | 85.6 | 9.60% | 29.50% | 281 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.305 | 0.330 | 0.025 | 32.2% | 0.205 | 11.3% | 80.3% | 88 | 8.60% | 34.20% | 301 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.299 | 0.282 | -0.017 | 44.4% | 0.195 | 13.8% | 89.8% | 85.2 | 4.80% | 32.50% | 249 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.292 | 0.228 | -0.064 | 37.5% | 0.151 | 14.1% | 78.7% | 85.6 | 5.20% | 29.40% | 289 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.293 | 0.265 | -0.028 | 46.8% | 0.171 | 9.9% | 84.9% | 86.2 | 8.10% | 32.00% | 284 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.292 | 0.230 | -0.062 | 54.0% | 0.127 | 0.0% | 86.5% | 87.8 | 1.60% | 34.90% | 63 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.285 | 0.287 | 0.002 | 41.0% | 0.185 | 6.8% | 85.4% | 89.5 | 9.90% | 39.70% | 335 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.319 | 0.274 | -0.045 | 45.4% | 0.169 | 12.2% | 85.9% | 87.5 | 6.80% | 37.10% | 132 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.305 | 0.344 | 0.039 | 47.1% | 0.212 | 9.8% | 88.3% | 89.8 | 9.80% | 42.40% | 264 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 0.307 | 0.319 | 0.012 | 56.8% | 0.164 | 7.7% | 86.9% | 85.3 | 5.40% | 27.90% | 147 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.306 | 0.302 | -0.004 | 46.5% | 0.211 | 14.5% | 89.2% | 85.4 | 5.30% | 29.80% | 262 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.313 | 0.292 | -0.021 | 44.9% | 0.195 | 9.3% | 89.6% | 88.2 | 9.00% | 39.70% | 277 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.291 | 0.270 | -0.021 | 40.0% | 0.236 | 9.2% | 85.2% | 86.1 | 6.00% | 31.80% | 333 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.293 | 0.247 | -0.046 | 57.0% | 0.183 | 8.7% | 88.2% | 85.1 | 4.60% | 35.20% | 196 |
Zack Godley has a decent profile, but probably not a .247 BABIP one. The hope is that his strikeouts will increase as the BABIP does with little effect on the ERA.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Trevor Cahill (4) seems to have returned to where he left off and where that is happens to be a breakout season for him. Early in the season he had some difficulty with contact management matching the now elite peripherals, but that appears to have come around as well. He may be in the top spot on the board tonight too, at least in terms of run prevention.
Chris Sale (1) is the most expensive pitcher on either site, but very close to Scherzer on FanDuel. He grades out fairly well ahead of him due to the substantial park and matchup advantage, though Scherzer may be in the higher strikeout spot.
Alex Wood (2t) shows no signs of slowing down. He’s now the third most expensive pitcher on the board behind only Sale and Scherzer. The only concern is workload limitations. He hasn’t exceeded 85 pitches in either of his last two starts despite not allowing a run in either. He has gone at least six innings in five straight though. The forecast is for domination as long as he lasts.
Aaron Nola (5) has been pitching like a stud over the last month and still has a reasonable price tag in a dangerous, but high strikeout spot.
Value Tier Two
Jeff Samardzija (6) has elite peripherals this season with just about all of his poor outings coming on the road. He’s in a great spot in a great park with a cost around $9K tonight.
Value Tier Three
Max Scherzer (2t) carries a slightly higher bit of risk at an enormous cost in a difficult environment in Arizona tonight. Otherwise, he’d be right on par with Sale and perhaps even better when factoring contact management.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Yu Darvish (7) has been inconsistent, but not bad this season. The upside is still there and he could reach it in a high strikeout spot tonight in Tampa Bay, but it’s also a dangerous spot for the fourth most expensive pitcher on the board.
Honorable Mention: Zack Godley (8) doesn’t really fit with the pitchers above due to the difficult matchup, but it just feels wrong to omit him at such a reasonable price today. Though he hasn’t done it yet this year, he could have double digit strikeout upside.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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