Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, July 28th
The deadline is upon us and pieces are being moved around the league. In fact, three July pitching acquisitions start for their new teams tonight. A couple of them may even be useful to us. To be honest though, the news is not otherwise very good on the pitching front on full slate Friday. The top pitchers, of which there are few, if any, are a bit concerning tonight. While there is depth, I’ll say that for this slate, it’s not all that impressive. One or two arms do have the potential to go off though.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.8 | 3.48 | 5.79 | 57.0% | 0.89 | 2.78 | 4.97 | SFO | 84 | 82 | 89 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.5 | 4.88 | 5.33 | 47.9% | 1.11 | 4.53 | 5.09 | BAL | 91 | 97 | 96 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 6.6 | 4.92 | 5.67 | 32.5% | 0.89 | 4.67 | 5.22 | NYM | 108 | 102 | 104 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | -0.7 | 3.94 | 3. | 45.6% | 1.01 | 4.23 | NYY | 121 | 116 | 128 | |
| Brent Suter | MIL | -1.3 | 4.17 | 5.29 | 46.7% | 1.02 | 4.43 | 4.11 | CHC | 96 | 112 | 100 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -3.2 | 4.66 | 4.92 | 44.1% | 0.91 | 4.05 | 3.95 | SDG | 91 | 87 | 117 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -4.6 | 4.82 | 5.46 | 42.0% | 1.11 | 4.73 | 4.96 | TEX | 106 | 97 | 116 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -5.8 | 3.41 | 6.62 | 59.3% | 0.98 | 3.57 | DET | 111 | 123 | 92 | |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -12.2 | 4.58 | 5.39 | 45.7% | 0.93 | 4.23 | 4.77 | MIN | 88 | 97 | 81 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0 | 3.8 | 5.63 | 44.2% | 0.98 | 3.71 | 1.82 | CHW | 89 | 87 | 77 |
| David Price | BOS | 7 | 3.61 | 6.48 | 42.9% | 1.13 | 3.27 | 3.91 | KAN | 87 | 86 | 141 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.2 | 4.92 | 5.52 | 39.3% | 0.98 | 4.7 | 6.35 | CLE | 99 | 105 | 156 |
| German Marquez | COL | -4.2 | 4.28 | 5.53 | 45.4% | 1.01 | 4.79 | 2.87 | WAS | 117 | 111 | 132 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -2.8 | 4.02 | 5.85 | 42.8% | 1.03 | 3.72 | 6.08 | ANA | 83 | 84 | 104 |
| Jaime Garcia | MIN | 1.8 | 4.05 | 5.9 | 56.5% | 0.93 | 4.45 | 3.76 | OAK | 109 | 76 | 87 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 5.8 | 4.67 | 5.73 | 37.2% | 1.13 | 4.98 | 5.9 | BOS | 88 | 104 | 37 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.1 | 4.57 | 5.65 | 38.6% | 0.96 | 4.28 | 3.6 | ATL | 90 | 87 | 83 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.8 | 4.56 | 5.72 | 40.2% | 0.98 | 5.16 | 5.15 | HOU | 137 | 133 | 147 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.2 | 3.94 | 6.28 | 42.3% | 1.02 | 4.15 | 2.06 | MIL | 93 | 95 | 86 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -2.5 | 4.34 | 6.1 | 39.4% | 0.96 | 4.63 | 4.49 | PHI | 95 | 87 | 119 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 1.1 | 3.72 | 6.25 | 48.7% | 1.01 | 3.49 | 2.63 | TAM | 98 | 110 | 80 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -0.9 | 4.53 | 5.82 | 38.4% | 0.89 | 5.15 | 3.77 | LOS | 119 | 116 | 117 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -3.5 | 4.25 | 5.58 | 45.4% | 0.98 | 3.78 | 3.3 | ARI | 80 | 103 | 116 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 1.2 | 4.83 | 6.14 | 40.3% | 1.03 | 6.06 | 3.87 | TOR | 92 | 90 | 85 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | -1.4 | 4.79 | 4.69 | 0.429 | 0.89 | 4.38 | 4.64 | SEA | 107 | 103 | 77 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5.3 | 3.79 | 5.61 | 0.447 | 0.98 | 3.46 | 5.39 | STL | 103 | 88 | 115 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 7.4 | 5.03 | 4.5 | 0.49 | 0.94 | 2.07 | 4.94 | MIA | 87 | 96 | 128 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.1 | 4.37 | 6. | 0.478 | 1.01 | 4.05 | 3.15 | COL | 80 | 78 | 103 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | -5.8 | 4.27 | 3.64 | 0.397 | 0.91 | 4.93 | 4.57 | PIT | 89 | 94 | 119 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 4.1 | 4.67 | 4.76 | 0.463 | 0.94 | 4.57 | 3.9 | CIN | 91 | 96 | 65 |
Alex Wood was pushed back a couple of days after his worst start of the season. His velocity has been declining and the pitcher even hit a grand slam. However, he still had a 42.1% soft contact rate in that game. For the season, he has a 21.6 K-BB% and 61.9 GB% that is fourth among those with at least 90 innings pitched. His 83.9 mph aEV and 24.3% 95+ mph EV are best on the board. Tonight’s matchup against the Giants is the best on the board. They don’t strike out a lot (18.8% vs LHP), but have just a 7.8 HR/FB vs LHP and 1.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Danny Salazar returned from the disabled list to throw seven one-hit shutout innings without a walk and eight strikeouts against the Blue Jays, facing the minimum. Still recognizing a 10.4 BB% and 88.2 mph aEV this year, that sounds like a pitcher we could use today, especially against the White Sox (15.7 K-BB% vs RHP).
Jaime Garcia is sixth in the majors among qualifiers with a 55.4 GB%. While he matches that with just a 17.6 K%, he’s been a league average 20.2% over the past month, while his SwStr% is well above average for the season. His first start for the Twins comes in a great park in Oakland against a team with a 26.1 K% and 9.5 HR/FB vs LHP.
Jose Quintana did have a 20 SwStr% when he struck out 12 Orioles in his Cubs debut. Velocity was up a bit as he must have had the adrenaline surging, but otherwise, just NO on that strikeout rate over the last month. Traditionally a HR suppressor, he’s been just an average contact manager this year with a career high 17.6 K-BB% (more on that later). He finds himself in a dangerous spot in Milwaukee against a very powerful offense (19.4 HR/FB at home), but one that strikes out a ton (26% at home and vs LHP).
Masahiro Tanaka is going to give up HRs, 26 of them now this season. The Rays are going to hit HRs (18.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but they also strike out a quarter of the time. His 13.4 SwStr% in his last start was his lowest since his first start of June, a period over which he has a 29.1 K% and 24.8 K-BB%.
Michael Wacha is quietly running a strikeout rate above 30% over the last month and now has a career high 23.8 K% (100 inning minimum). He’s run a double digit SwStr% in four straight now. While the D’Backs have been a poor offense away from home, the lineup is a bit deeper these days, so they might be a tougher matchup than it appears.
Rafael Montero allowed three HRs in seven innings to Oakland last time out, but they were his only mistakes. He’s now walked exactly one in three straight and has a 17.2 K-BB% and 23.9 Hard% in 32.1 innings since his recall in June. That brings him to a nearly league average 10.8 K-BB% for the season with an 83.5 mph aEV and 26.5% 95+ mph EV that’s among the lowest on the board. He gains a DH tonight, but has the benefit of another negative run environment in Seattle that makes a somewhat neutral situation a potentially positive one.
Robbie Ray has walked just five of his last 45 batters, still a double digit walk rate, but an improvement after walking at least four in each of his five previous starts. He’s also allowed eight HRs over his last six starts and struck out just eight of his last 45 batters. While these are all concerns, along with a 43.3% 95+ mph EV that’s highest on the board, we’re still looking at a 30% strikeout rate for the season and even the last month. Despite a double digit walk rate, the Cardinals have struggled against LHP.
Tanner Roark struck out a season high 11 Diamondbacks in his last start. Once or twice a year he’ll do that to prop up an otherwise pedestrian strikeout rate that now sits at nearly league average for the season despite having five or fewer in 14 of 19 starts. While his 84.8 mph aEV is still better than average, his contact management has not been what it was last year, which had his ERA two runs lower despite similar estimators. He’s in a great spot against a Colorado offense with a 16.8 K-BB% on the road and 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jeremy Hellickson (.255 – 73.2% – 14.4) is now up to 22 HRs on the season, 20 over his last 15 starts, though at least he’s missing bats at a league average rate again.
Brent Suter (.313 – 75.2 – 5.7) has pitched well in four July starts, going at least six innings with five strikeouts in three of them, allowing a total of six runs, five earned. While he has just an 84.7 mph aEV and 25.4% 95+ mph EV, a HR rate well less than half the league average is not going to be sustainable. The Cubs have been exceptional vs LHP (12.6 BB%, 18.5 HR/FB).
Jason Vargas (.285 – 83.5 – 9.2) is facing an ice cold Boston offense (-4.8 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but their 16.4 K% vs LHP along with his ever declining strikeout rate is not a recipe for a lot of daily fantasy points.
Ariel Miranda (.226 – 76.8% – 12.9) has allowed multiple HRs in five of his last seven starts and failed to complete six innings in any of his last three.
Parker Bridwell (.285 – 91.1% – 16.7) allows too much hard contact, but does have some upside in a double digit SwStr%, which could drop his estimators if his strikeout rate ever came in line.
Andrew Cashner (.277 – 73.9% – 7.8) has a 1.5 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Dallas Keuchel makes his first major league start in nearly two months tonight. He threw rehab games first at AA (12 batters) and low A (19 batters), the results of which were fine with a ground ball rate above 70%, but the concerns are with the length of those outings. It’s tough to pay more than $10K in a bad spot for a pitcher we can’t expect to go much more than five innings.
German Marquez has struck out 18 of his last 54 batters and allowed just eight runs over his last 20.2 innings in three straight starts at home. He has allowed a HR in four straight starts though and while he does escape Coors tonight, it doesn’t get much better in Washington against an offense that hit about 20 HRs Thursday afternoon.
David Price is reported to be dealing with elbow issues again and may not even make tonight’s start. Update – This now seems to be official just prior to the completion of this article. The good news is that he’s going to be replaced by another LHP: Brian Johnson. Update II – The first update seems to have been misinformed and it will be Rick Porcello replacing Price now.
Chad Kuhl is close today in a favorable spot hosting the Padres (23.6 K%, 7.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but strikeouts are down, he has occasional control issues and is not really an exceptional contact manager. He might be okay at a low price, but there doesn’t appear to be a lot of upside here (more than six strikeouts just once) and there are plenty of pitchers I like better.
J.A. Happ is not in a bad spot, but has stopped missing bats. His last three starts have resulted in just eight strikeouts with as many walks and six HRs.
Sal Romano has been missing bats, but has 13.4 BB% and had just a 15.1 K% in 49 AAA innings this season.
Julio Teheran is striking out batters at a league average rate again over the last month, but a sparkling July ERA is supported by a .225 BABIP and 90.6 LOB%, while walking 10% of the batters he’s faced.
Austin Pruitt has started one game this year, in which he completed three innings. He’s gone more than one inning in many of his relief outings, up to three innings several times. Some tough circumstances in his second start at Yankee Stadium.
Vance Worley gets the spot start after having pitched mostly in relief the last two months. He hasn’t faced more than 16 batters in an outing since the beginning of June and no more than 20 in any appearance this year.
Matt Moore
Chris Tillman allowed one run in six innings to the Rangers two starts back, but walked four in that game against just three strikeouts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.3% | 7.7% | Home | 28.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 10.4% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.2% | 10.2% | Home | 17.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.1% | Home | 21.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 17.8% | 5.3% | Road | 16.1% | 4.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.0% | 6.1% | Home | 20.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 4.6% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.2% | Road | 20.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 7.6% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.4% | 9.1% | Road | 17.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.3% | Road | 21.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.3% | 4.2% | Home | 15.2% | 1.3% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 5.5% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.8% | 9.7% | Road | 28.9% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 24.5% | 5.9% | Home | 26.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 5.3% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.5% | 8.1% | Home | 18.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.4% | Road | 20.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 7.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.8% | 6.7% | Home | 22.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Jaime Garcia | Twins | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.8% | Road | 17.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 18.4% | 6.4% | Road | 18.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 11.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 17.5% | 6.2% | Home | 19.4% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 7.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.3% | 6.3% | Home | 14.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 7.8% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.6% | Road | 22.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 41.3% | 4.4% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.1% | Road | 19.4% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 8.9% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.7% | Home | 24.0% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.3% | Road | 19.0% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 1.8% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.1% | Home | 21.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 1.8% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 16.1% | 6.3% | Road | 16.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 3.9% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 21.5% | 12.5% | Road | 24.8% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 3.7% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 27.9% | 10.4% | Road | 31.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 10.6% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 22.0% | 13.4% | Road | 30.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.3% | Home | 21.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 20.8% | 9.9% | Home | 15.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 2.4% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 16.3% | 8.9% | Home | 17.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 5.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 19.2% | 8.2% | LH | 18.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 14.9% | 9.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.2% | RH | 22.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.7% |
| Mets | Road | 20.3% | 8.7% | LH | 22.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.3% | 10.5% | RH | 22.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.4% | 9.6% | LH | 21.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.3% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.4% | RH | 25.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.3% | 9.6% | RH | 23.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 9.1% | LH | 19.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 17.7% | 8.6% |
| Twins | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | RH | 22.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.6% | 7.4% | RH | 22.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 5.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.4% | 6.0% | LH | 18.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 8.0% |
| Indians | Road | 18.5% | 9.4% | LH | 16.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 17.8% | 13.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.6% | 9.4% | RH | 19.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.6% |
| Angels | Road | 21.4% | 8.6% | LH | 20.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.2% | 9.5% | LH | 26.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 11.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.3% | 9.5% | LH | 16.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| Braves | Road | 19.5% | 7.5% | RH | 19.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.7% |
| Astros | Road | 18.0% | 8.6% | RH | 17.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.3% | 8.4% | LH | 26.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.5% | 8.2% | RH | 23.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.1% |
| Rays | Road | 25.3% | 8.4% | RH | 24.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.1% | 9.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 10.2% | LH | 22.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 5.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.3% | 8.3% | RH | 22.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 12.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.6% | 8.7% | RH | 20.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 10.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 8.8% | RH | 21.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 9.7% | LH | 21.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.6% | 8.1% | RH | 20.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 7.5% | RH | 22.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.1% | 8.8% | LH | 18.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.2% |
| Reds | Road | 20.3% | 7.4% | RH | 21.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.2% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 2017 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 0.4% | Home | 23.8% | 9.8% | 1.5% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 22.2% | -14.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 2017 | 29.6% | 7.8% | 11.0% | Home | 32.7% | 13.3% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 11.1% | 18.0% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 2017 | 28.2% | 12.9% | 7.4% | Home | 31.8% | 12.7% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 10.0% | 23.6% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 31.6% | 7.1% | 15.8% | 2017 | 31.6% | 7.1% | 15.8% | Road | 32.8% | 12.5% | 13.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 2017 | 27.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | Home | 32.3% | 0.0% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 12.5% | 11.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.3% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 2017 | 33.6% | 9.3% | 17.2% | Road | 33.2% | 6.1% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 0.0% | 18.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 2017 | 34.3% | 17.3% | 15.8% | Road | 33.1% | 12.1% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 26.2% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 2017 | 20.6% | 17.1% | -9.3% | Road | 27.9% | 20.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 31.4% | 22.9% | 13.1% | 2017 | 31.4% | 22.9% | 13.1% | Home | 31.8% | 21.7% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 17.6% | 2.4% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 2017 | 29.0% | 20.8% | 12.9% | Road | 31.9% | 14.0% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 2017 | 33.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | Home | 36.2% | 13.8% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 7.7% | 12.5% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.9% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 2017 | 37.9% | 18.6% | 18.3% | Home | 33.5% | 11.0% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 27.8% | 24.3% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 35.2% | 11.7% | 20.5% | 2017 | 36.7% | 10.9% | 21.7% | Road | 38.8% | 8.9% | 24.3% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 2017 | 30.7% | 18.5% | 11.2% | Home | 34.4% | 13.9% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 18.8% | -2.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Twins | L2 Years | 29.2% | 14.7% | 7.9% | 2017 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 5.2% | Road | 29.5% | 13.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 2017 | 29.9% | 9.2% | 12.1% | Road | 29.2% | 10.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 23.1% | 32.2% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.4% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 2017 | 31.3% | 14.4% | 13.2% | Home | 25.2% | 13.9% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 22.2% | 32.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 2017 | 39.0% | 15.2% | 24.9% | Home | 36.8% | 13.6% | 21.3% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 0.0% | 26.3% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.4% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 2017 | 31.8% | 13.4% | 13.6% | Road | 30.9% | 6.5% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 2017 | 32.0% | 16.0% | 10.6% | Road | 33.1% | 11.0% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.3% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 2017 | 31.6% | 23.0% | 13.5% | Home | 33.9% | 17.5% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 27.3% | 15.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 11.0% | 20.1% | Road | 33.6% | 10.7% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 11.8% | 4.8% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2017 | 29.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% | Home | 30.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 35.7% | 18.3% | 22.3% | 2017 | 34.3% | 16.7% | 20.6% | Road | 41.4% | 13.8% | 27.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 27.4% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 2017 | 25.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | Road | 34.8% | 23.8% | 23.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 15.0% | 7.1% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.8% | 14.8% | 19.8% | 2017 | 41.5% | 13.9% | 23.4% | Road | 35.6% | 12.9% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 13.3% | 32.4% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 32.7% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 2017 | 32.7% | 15.8% | 11.5% | Road | 30.8% | 0.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 10.0% | 14.2% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.3% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 2017 | 29.0% | 12.0% | 14.2% | Home | 27.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 31.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 2017 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | Home | 31.4% | 11.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% | 5.6% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 34.0% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 2017 | 44.4% | 6.7% | 32.3% | Home | 34.9% | 4.8% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 43.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 31.1% | 10.9% | 10.3% | LH | 28.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 1.9% | 7.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.6% | 13.6% | 15.3% | RH | 31.9% | 15.5% | 11.4% | L7Days | 39.8% | 12.7% | 19.3% |
| Mets | Road | 36.7% | 15.4% | 19.0% | LH | 35.4% | 13.4% | 14.3% | L7Days | 36.6% | 13.6% | 18.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.6% | 20.1% | 10.0% | RH | 31.7% | 16.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 33.0% | 16.1% | 18.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 30.1% | 15.1% | 11.0% | LH | 29.6% | 18.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 36.8% | 13.3% | 21.7% |
| Padres | Home | 29.1% | 13.2% | 7.6% | RH | 29.0% | 14.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 32.8% | 14.5% | 18.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.7% | 16.7% | 17.3% | RH | 33.9% | 17.4% | 14.6% | L7Days | 33.9% | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 45.5% | 13.1% | 31.9% | LH | 40.4% | 16.2% | 25.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 7.1% | 11.8% |
| Twins | Road | 30.2% | 12.0% | 11.6% | RH | 33.1% | 12.4% | 16.1% | L7Days | 35.0% | 5.6% | 15.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.9% | 13.2% | 7.6% | RH | 31.0% | 13.4% | 12.0% | L7Days | 26.4% | 13.6% | 8.3% |
| Royals | Road | 32.4% | 14.9% | 12.7% | LH | 30.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 35.7% | 23.4% | 18.7% |
| Indians | Road | 35.2% | 11.5% | 18.5% | LH | 32.1% | 12.3% | 14.1% | L7Days | 33.5% | 16.9% | 14.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 15.0% | 16.0% | RH | 32.1% | 15.5% | 15.2% | L7Days | 35.2% | 19.7% | 19.1% |
| Angels | Road | 32.6% | 11.2% | 13.1% | LH | 31.0% | 8.8% | 13.4% | L7Days | 32.9% | 14.8% | 13.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.2% | 15.4% | 16.1% | LH | 31.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | L7Days | 26.6% | 12.5% | 7.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.2% | 8.9% | 17.0% | LH | 30.6% | 9.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.5% | -4.8% |
| Braves | Road | 31.5% | 12.7% | 13.4% | RH | 30.8% | 11.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 16.1% | 14.8% |
| Astros | Road | 33.5% | 16.2% | 15.2% | RH | 33.6% | 16.2% | 16.0% | L7Days | 33.2% | 16.4% | 15.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.9% | 19.4% | 18.2% | LH | 34.9% | 16.8% | 16.1% | L7Days | 30.8% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.5% | 14.7% | 10.4% | RH | 30.9% | 11.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 29.5% | 15.7% | 7.3% |
| Rays | Road | 33.4% | 16.9% | 14.2% | RH | 35.9% | 18.0% | 18.2% | L7Days | 30.3% | 16.7% | 7.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.8% | 17.5% | 21.4% | LH | 34.9% | 19.0% | 19.4% | L7Days | 39.6% | 16.4% | 20.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.1% | 13.7% | 10.5% | RH | 35.8% | 15.2% | 18.6% | L7Days | 35.3% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.6% | 14.4% | 9.4% | RH | 30.7% | 15.0% | 10.7% | L7Days | 25.5% | 18.4% | 7.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.7% | 12.2% | 9.2% | RH | 30.2% | 12.7% | 11.9% | L7Days | 28.8% | 10.9% | 6.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 31.8% | 12.7% | 12.1% | LH | 33.7% | 11.8% | 17.1% | L7Days | 27.9% | 17.2% | 2.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.4% | 15.2% | 9.7% | RH | 31.9% | 14.9% | 12.0% | L7Days | 35.8% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.6% | 11.8% | 8.7% | RH | 30.2% | 13.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 40.7% | 23.7% | 25.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | LH | 30.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 29.0% | 13.5% | 9.7% |
| Reds | Road | 30.3% | 13.4% | 11.0% | RH | 29.7% | 14.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 30.7% | 11.1% | 7.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 29.0% | 13.3% | 2.18 | 26.8% | 14.2% | 1.89 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 11.8% | 6.2% | 1.90 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 1.76 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 18.7% | 9.9% | 1.89 | 20.0% | 11.2% | 1.79 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 17.8% | 10.1% | 1.76 | |||
| Brent Suter | MIL | 20.4% | 9.3% | 2.19 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 2.27 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 19.0% | 10.3% | 1.84 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 2.74 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.01 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 2.08 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.32 | |||
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 15.3% | 7.8% | 1.96 | 14.2% | 6.3% | 2.25 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 31.5% | 16.0% | 1.97 | 38.1% | 17.4% | 2.19 |
| David Price | BOS | 22.1% | 11.4% | 1.94 | 25.2% | 12.6% | 2.00 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 18.1% | 7.8% | 2.32 | 13.2% | 4.4% | 3.00 |
| German Marquez | COL | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.38 | 27.1% | 11.0% | 2.46 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.26 | 12.6% | 6.8% | 1.85 |
| Jaime Garcia | MIN | 17.9% | 11.6% | 1.54 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 1.62 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 17.9% | 9.8% | 1.83 | 15.2% | 6.6% | 2.30 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 13.8% | 8.6% | 1.60 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 16.0% | 8.3% | 1.93 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 2.47 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.97 | 34.5% | 10.2% | 3.38 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.1% | 9.0% | 1.90 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 2.08 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 23.6% | 14.6% | 1.62 | 25.4% | 15.9% | 1.60 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.06 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 1.94 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.8% | 10.2% | 2.33 | 31.1% | 12.4% | 2.51 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 15.8% | 10.4% | 1.52 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 1.59 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.26 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 2.32 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 30.7% | 13.2% | 2.33 | 29.7% | 11.6% | 2.56 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.62 | 25.0% | 10.6% | 2.36 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.95 | 22.5% | 12.9% | 1.74 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 14.9% | 6.3% | 2.37 | 13.1% | 5.1% | 2.57 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 19.1% | 5.1% | 3.75 | 27.0% | 8.3% | 3.25 |
Jaime Garcia has run SwStr rates above 11% before, but has a career 19.1 K% with a 10.3 SwStr%, so while he generally runs a K/SwStr below two, we can still look for a strikeout rate around league average going forward.
Jose Quintana has a career 2.42 K/SwStr, a bit above average, but not obnoxiously so. However, he ran a career high 21.6 K% on a career low 7.6 SwStr% (2.84 K/SwStr) last year and has bettered that with a 26.1 K% on an 8.8 SwStr% (2.97) this year. Has he suddenly become a master of the called strike? It doesn’t seem likely and I’m still not entirely bought in, but perhaps we need to stay open minded here and see what the move to a new organization brings.
Masahiro Tanaka is the anti-Quintana. He has just a 1.86 K/SwStr, but is even lower this year with a SwStr% that is fourth best in the majors.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.17 | 3.08 | 0.91 | 2.81 | 0.64 | 2.45 | 0.28 | 2.76 | 0.59 | 3.04 | 4 | 0.96 | 3.58 | 0.54 | 3.33 | 0.29 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.64 | 5.63 | 1.99 | 5.24 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 0.86 | 5.48 | 1.84 | 4.01 | 5.21 | 1.2 | 4.68 | 0.67 | 4.29 | 0.28 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.3 | 5 | 0.7 | 5.33 | 1.03 | 5.18 | 0.88 | 4.99 | 0.69 | 5.09 | 4.81 | -0.28 | 5.16 | 0.07 | 4.64 | -0.45 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 6.25 | 3.94 | -2.31 | 4.07 | -2.18 | 3.31 | -2.94 | 5.02 | -1.23 | |||||||
| Brent Suter | MIL | 2.84 | 4.07 | 1.23 | 3.98 | 1.14 | 3.03 | 0.19 | 6.24 | 3.40 | 1.88 | 3.51 | 1.63 | 3.23 | 1.35 | 2.37 | 0.49 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.92 | 4.79 | -0.13 | 4.62 | -0.3 | 4.04 | -0.88 | 4.49 | -0.43 | 3.25 | 4.68 | 1.43 | 4.23 | 0.98 | 3.41 | 0.16 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.01 | 5.47 | -1.54 | 5.51 | -1.5 | 6.09 | -0.92 | 7.97 | 0.96 | 3.31 | 4.81 | 1.5 | 4.92 | 1.61 | 5.24 | 1.93 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.67 | 3.12 | 1.45 | 2.91 | 1.24 | 3.12 | 1.45 | 1.99 | 0.32 | |||||||
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 5.4 | 4.57 | -0.83 | 4.35 | -1.05 | 5.67 | 0.27 | 6.97 | 1.57 | 5.93 | 4.86 | -1.07 | 4.66 | -1.27 | 6.38 | 0.45 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.79 | 3.59 | -1.2 | 3.39 | -1.4 | 4.17 | -0.62 | 3.42 | -1.37 | 0 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| David Price | BOS | 3.82 | 4.3 | 0.48 | 4.45 | 0.63 | 4.01 | 0.19 | 4.47 | 0.65 | 2.81 | 3.66 | 0.85 | 3.68 | 0.87 | 2.19 | -0.62 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 5.12 | 5 | -0.12 | 5.21 | 0.09 | 6.02 | 0.9 | 6.84 | 1.72 | 8.69 | 5.58 | -3.11 | 6.09 | -2.6 | 8.75 | 0.06 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.2 | 4.29 | 0.09 | 4.29 | 0.09 | 3.91 | -0.29 | 5.19 | 0.99 | 3.76 | 3.4 | -0.36 | 3.08 | -0.68 | 3.84 | 0.08 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 4.13 | 4.21 | 0.08 | 4.15 | 0.02 | 4.85 | 0.72 | 4.59 | 0.46 | 4.61 | 5.64 | 1.03 | 5.65 | 1.04 | 6.63 | 2.02 |
| Jaime Garcia | MIN | 4.3 | 4.53 | 0.23 | 4.22 | -0.08 | 4.15 | -0.15 | 4.83 | 0.53 | 5.19 | 4.03 | -1.16 | 3.78 | -1.41 | 3.27 | -1.92 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3.08 | 4.74 | 1.66 | 4.9 | 1.82 | 4.12 | 1.04 | 4.15 | 1.07 | 6.86 | 5.66 | -1.2 | 6.07 | -0.79 | 7.22 | 0.36 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.73 | 5.3 | 0.57 | 5.39 | 0.66 | 5.51 | 0.78 | 5.44 | 0.71 | 6.04 | 4.19 | -1.85 | 4.11 | -1.93 | 5.53 | -0.51 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.81 | 5.11 | -0.7 | 5.3 | -0.51 | 5.56 | -0.25 | 6.01 | 0.20 | 7.11 | 4.91 | -2.2 | 5.19 | -1.92 | 4.21 | -2.9 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.22 | 3.94 | -0.28 | 3.91 | -0.31 | 3.87 | -0.35 | 3.88 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 3.1 | 0.31 | 3.03 | 0.24 | 3.23 | 0.44 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.67 | 5.08 | 0.41 | 5.16 | 0.49 | 5.53 | 0.86 | 5.19 | 0.52 | 2.45 | 4.53 | 2.08 | 4.31 | 1.86 | 4.6 | 2.15 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.37 | 3.72 | -1.65 | 3.74 | -1.63 | 4.92 | -0.45 | 4.01 | -1.36 | 4.35 | 3.14 | -1.21 | 3.3 | -1.05 | 3.9 | -0.45 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.82 | 4.87 | -0.95 | 5.15 | -0.67 | 4.67 | -1.15 | 7.68 | 1.86 | 4.91 | 4.8 | -0.11 | 5.07 | 0.16 | 4.25 | -0.66 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 3.93 | 3.99 | 0.06 | 3.76 | -0.17 | 3.47 | -0.46 | 4.07 | 0.14 | 2.36 | 2.89 | 0.53 | 2.79 | 0.43 | 2.29 | -0.07 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 3.09 | 4.87 | 1.78 | 4.83 | 1.74 | 5.28 | 2.19 | 5.27 | 2.18 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 4.42 | 1.22 | 4.5 | 1.3 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 5.19 | 4.57 | -0.62 | 4.73 | -0.46 | 4.02 | -1.17 | 5.96 | 0.77 | 4.5 | 4.37 | -0.13 | 4.58 | 0.08 | 4.31 | -0.19 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.15 | 3.88 | 0.73 | 3.9 | 0.75 | 3.93 | 0.78 | 3.79 | 0.64 | 4.3 | 4.27 | -0.03 | 4.31 | 0.01 | 5.2 | 0.9 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 5.5 | 5.03 | -0.47 | 5.04 | -0.46 | 5.32 | -0.18 | 6.78 | 1.28 | 5.4 | 4.18 | -1.22 | 3.85 | -1.55 | 3.29 | -2.11 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.83 | 4.5 | -0.33 | 4.32 | -0.51 | 4.12 | -0.71 | 4.45 | -0.38 | 3.43 | 4.28 | 0.85 | 4.07 | 0.64 | 3.16 | -0.27 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 6.91 | 5.23 | -1.68 | 5.54 | -1.37 | 4.52 | -2.39 | 7.78 | 0.87 | 8.31 | 4.6 | -3.71 | 4.44 | -3.87 | 3.39 | -4.92 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 6.37 | 4.23 | -2.14 | 4.32 | -2.05 | 3.39 | -2.98 | 5.43 | -0.94 | 3.24 | 3.16 | -0.08 | 2.91 | -0.33 | 1.84 | -1.4 |
Alex Wood saw some comeuppance in his HR rate last time out, now up to an 8.3 HR/FB. With a strong defense and the quality of contact he’s allowed, there are no complaints with a .261 BABIP.
Danny Salazar has a .340 BABIP and 20.8 HR/FB. That’s going to happen with a 26.8 LD% and he has a history of hanging pitches, but is not allowing enough hard contact for that amount of damage. His hard hit rate is below 30%. At least one of those numbers should improve.
Masahiro Tanaka has a .317 BABIP that is nearly 40 points higher than his career rate, though the interesting thing is that most of his hard contact has seemed to result in HRs (23 HR/FB). His BABIP profile actually remains quite strong. That’s where we might expect to see the improvement.
Rafael Montero has a .376 BABIP, but just an 8.8 HR/FB. We’ve mentioned that he’s been a strong contact manager this season and his BABIP profile is just as strong. The low HR rate includes three in his last start. Regression both ways. The BABIP has been a more serene .315 since his recall, still a bit higher than what his profile suggests, but improved control and not pitching from behind in the count so often likely helps.
Robbie Ray has an 83.5 LOB%.
Tanner Roark has just a 63 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.280 | 0.261 | -0.019 | 61.9% | 0.166 | 14.6% | 83.6% | 83.9 | 2.70% | 24.30% | 226 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.289 | 0.277 | -0.012 | 50.5% | 0.2 | 3.3% | 92.5% | 86.3 | 3.60% | 32.90% | 307 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.226 | -0.053 | 33.2% | 0.159 | 12.9% | 84.9% | 86.4 | 8.20% | 31.40% | 341 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 0.284 | 0.402 | 0.118 | 45.6% | 0.298 | 10.7% | 90.6% | 87.7 | 6.10% | 30.70% | 114 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 0.300 | 0.313 | 0.013 | 48.7% | 0.204 | 5.7% | 86.3% | 84.7 | 4.40% | 25.40% | 114 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.329 | 0.021 | 44.0% | 0.227 | 6.2% | 85.5% | 87.7 | 5.40% | 38.60% | 298 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.365 | 0.05 | 40.0% | 0.251 | 13.3% | 90.7% | 89.2 | 6.00% | 38.90% | 216 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.295 | 0.222 | -0.073 | 67.4% | 0.142 | 5.7% | 88.5% | 83.6 | 5.20% | 30.40% | 194 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.292 | 0.275 | -0.017 | 45.7% | 0.225 | 6.3% | 90.2% | 86.6 | 8.50% | 31.40% | 153 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.303 | 0.340 | 0.037 | 38.6% | 0.268 | 11.3% | 78.2% | 88.2 | 9.00% | 29.70% | 155 |
| David Price | BOS | 0.305 | 0.287 | -0.018 | 40.8% | 0.209 | 13.3% | 87.4% | 86.5 | 7.10% | 32.70% | 196 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.288 | 0.291 | 0.003 | 39.2% | 0.204 | 9.3% | 87.8% | 88.5 | 9.60% | 41.00% | 322 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.318 | 0.016 | 42.8% | 0.223 | 9.8% | 89.4% | 89.1 | 6.70% | 36.30% | 267 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.307 | 0.282 | -0.025 | 45.0% | 0.197 | 8.6% | 86.4% | 86.9 | 6.50% | 33.80% | 231 |
| Jaime Garcia | MIN | 0.298 | 0.287 | -0.011 | 55.4% | 0.176 | 5.4% | 86.2% | 85.8 | 4.90% | 33.70% | 347 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.299 | 0.285 | -0.014 | 37.2% | 0.192 | 8.6% | 84.4% | 86.5 | 4.80% | 29.40% | 354 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.297 | 0.255 | -0.042 | 35.1% | 0.223 | 11.1% | 86.5% | 86.8 | 6.70% | 32.90% | 371 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.309 | 0.325 | 0.016 | 33.3% | 0.25 | 11.7% | 90.9% | 88.5 | 7.60% | 34.20% | 354 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 0.283 | 0.298 | 0.015 | 42.3% | 0.196 | 12.6% | 88.9% | 87.1 | 5.70% | 34.60% | 318 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.269 | -0.023 | 40.1% | 0.202 | 6.9% | 87.4% | 86.3 | 7.00% | 30.40% | 369 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.290 | 0.317 | 0.027 | 49.9% | 0.174 | 11.5% | 84.6% | 88.2 | 9.80% | 36.50% | 348 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.317 | 0.339 | 0.022 | 37.6% | 0.204 | 6.5% | 88.0% | 89 | 9.40% | 41.70% | 374 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.294 | 0.325 | 0.031 | 46.1% | 0.223 | 5.6% | 83.1% | 86.2 | 5.60% | 29.60% | 287 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.285 | 0.285 | 0 | 41.7% | 0.208 | 11.1% | 87.6% | 88.5 | 7.50% | 36.30% | 146 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 0.320 | 0.376 | 0.056 | 45.5% | 0.175 | 8.8% | 84.7% | 83.5 | 5.60% | 26.50% | 162 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.294 | 0.272 | -0.022 | 38.7% | 0.188 | 9.6% | 81.7% | 88.8 | 6.90% | 43.30% | 277 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.293 | 0.306 | 0.013 | 49.0% | 0.122 | 15.8% | 84.2% | 84.8 | 5.80% | 34.60% | 52 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.307 | 0.014 | 47.4% | 0.212 | 5.6% | 84.8% | 86.3 | 5.10% | 33.00% | 352 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 0.307 | 0.369 | 0.062 | 42.1% | 0.214 | 7.5% | 89.2% | 88.1 | 4.10% | 35.20% | 145 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.392 | 0.099 | 44.9% | 0.245 | 10.0% | 91.9% | 90 | 2.00% | 42.40% | 99 |
Michael Wacha has a slightly elevated line drive rate and doesn’t really generate a lot of popups. He has a career .299 BABIP, but was up at .334 last season. He may have some regression ahead, but probably not much.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Danny Salazar returned from the disabled list in dominant fashion and has an even better matchup tonight. He’s still under $10K and barely over $8K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Two
Alex Wood has some concerns coming off his first real rough start of the season. Velocity has been dropping and perhaps that’s why they gave him the extra days off. We can’t jump off this train after one bad start though, especially in such a premium matchup.
Masahiro Tanaka could and probably will give up a bomb or two, but the strikeout upside against the Rays is one of the best on the board at a cost below $9K.
Value Tier Three
Jose Quintana has acclimated himself well to his new team so far and is in a dangerous, but high strikeout spot tonight, even if we are skeptical about his own whiffing abilities. Remember that he will no longer be facing a DH either.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Tanner Roark has one of his strikeout spikes last time out and while we’ve seen these occasionally from him, never sustained, he is in a great spot tonight for less than $8K.
Jaime Garcia could be a league average pitcher and perhaps a bit better with strong contact management and a league average strikeout rate. He starts his Minnesota tenure under positive circumstances in Oakland tonight.
Robbie Ray keeps himself in play with an elite strikeout rate and a park upgrade for less than $10K tonight, but there are significant issues and the Cardinals will take walks.
Michael Wacha allowed two HRs (five runs) in his last start, but has otherwise been pitching well and missing a ton of bats. He’s gone on similar runs before and usually returned to being somewhat of a league average arm. Strikeouts are up overall this year though. The matchup may be a bit more difficult than it looks with the recent addition of J.D. Martinez.
Rafael Montero has been a decent arm since his recall. He’s missing enough bats and more importantly, throwing strikes while managing contact well. He goes from one negative run environment to another in Seattle tonight.
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