Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 23rd

There are only two $10K+ pitchers tonight with two more in the $9K range, but it’s a solid full slate with a little bit of everything. We have a return from the disabled list, two first time starters, and perhaps some low cost upside as well. We’re going to try Alex Wood again today. I hope today’s the day. He’ll have more competition for the top spot though.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

NOTE: Luis Perdomo will start for the Padres this evening, not Dinelson Lamet.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher Team Team
Def
SIERA
L2Yrs
IP/GS
L2Yrs
GB%
L2Yrs
Park
Run
Hm/Rd
xFIP
SIERA
L14
Opp Opp
Hm/Rd
Opp L/R
wRC+
Opp L7
wRC+
Adalberto Mejia MIN 3.9 5.23 4.47 41.5% 1.09 6.15 5.45 CLE 103 99 154
Adam Wainwright STL -7.8 4.39 5.75 45.2% 0.98 4.01 5.07 PIT 89 93 92
Alex Meyer ANA -1.5 4.73 4.67 42.5% 1.13 4.94 3.99 BOS 94 92 71
Alex Wood LOS 2 3.55 5.72 55.5% 0.89 2.58 2.66 COL 88 92 107
Chris Archer TAM 0.5 3.46 6.21 45.0% 0.96 3.02 3.33 BAL 91 95 117
Dinelson Lamet SDG -9.1 3.16 4.8 32.2% 0.91 4.11 2.04 DET 85 98 93
Felix Hernandez SEA 7.9 4.11 6.19 51.9% 0.89 4.17 HOU 125 123 148
J.A. Happ TOR -2.3 3.95 5.81 42.8% 1.06 4.45 2.55 KAN 79 81 71
Jakob Junis KAN 7.8 5.24 5.05 34.2% 1.06 9 3.8 TOR 91 92 112
Jameson Taillon PIT -6.8 3.79 5.73 52.6% 0.98 3.54 3.93 STL 96 97 125
Jharel Cotton OAK -14.2 4.64 5.65 36.8% 0.98 4.75 4.25 CHW 104 85 126
Jimmy Nelson MIL -3.4 4.39 5.78 50.2% 1 4.89 3.52 ATL 92 94 101
Joe Musgrove HOU -1.9 4.29 5.5 42.1% 0.89 4.36 4.37 SEA 112 106 120
John Lackey CHC 4.3 3.89 6.42 44.2% 0.94 3.83 5.95 MIA 96 93 78
Jose Urena MIA 4.6 5.03 5.16 44.3% 0.94 5.06 4.58 CHC 92 89 123
Kyle Freeland COL 1.1 4.87 5.8 58.7% 0.89 5.55 4.33 LOS 122 105 164
Mark Leiter PHI 2.4 5.76 58.9% 1.13 6.36 ARI 119 107 118
Masahiro Tanaka NYY 5.8 3.76 6.26 47.8% 1.01 3.51 2.61 TEX 80 96 127
Michael Fulmer DET 2.6 4.14 6.28 49.2% 0.91 3.85 5.59 SDG 86 83 77
Mike Foltynewicz ATL -0.6 4.35 5.54 39.6% 1 4.6 6.77 MIL 94 96 100
Mike Pelfrey CHW -0.3 4.99 5.06 49.9% 0.98 4.77 5.13 OAK 81 101 100
Patrick Corbin ARI -7.4 4.12 5.46 50.9% 1.13 4.26 3.56 PHI 72 81 81
Rick Porcello BOS 2.7 3.79 6.47 42.8% 1.13 4.04 5.12 ANA 82 93 119
Seth Lugo NYM -1.5 4.64 6.02 42.1% 0.93 4.49 4.57 SFO 72 79 106
Stephen Strasburg WAS 0 2.99 6.28 0.421 1.01 3.21 3.07 CIN 94 100 106
Trevor Bauer CLE -4.5 4.15 5.8 0.466 1.09 3.84 3.91 MIN 95 99 62
Ty Blach SFO 0.6 4.97 6.31 0.502 0.93 4.52 4.76 NYM 111 89 99
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL -2.7 4.58 5.44 0.489 0.96 4.67 3.62 TAM 112 115 127
Yu Darvish TEX 4.5 3.54 6.07 0.404 1.01 3.7 4.25 NYY 131 122 86
Luis Castillo CIN 10.3 0 0 1.01 WAS 116 108 98


Alex Wood allowed one run in eight innings with five strikeouts last time out in Cincinnati. It was actually a poor start by his season standards. Strikeouts (18.5%) and ground balls (52.4%) were down. For the season, he has a 29.8 K% and 66.9 GB% with a 2.6% Barrels/BBE (26.5% 95+ mph EV). The drawback is that he doesn’t often exceed 90 pitches with a high of 96 on the season. Perhaps the extra day of rest persuades the Dodgers to extend that leash. The Rockies have a 17.2 K-BB% vs LHP.

Chris Archer has at least eight strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts with no fewer than six. He’s dropped his HR/FB six points this year, while actually increasing his hard contact the same number of points. Now at a 30.1 K%, his 22.4 K-BB% is a career high and sixth best in baseball. It’s up to 24.3% at home since last year. While the 89 mph aEV is fairly high, he’s done a good job of avoiding barrels (6% per BBE) with the increase in strikeouts dropping that to 3.7% per PA. No matter how hard the contact actually is, more strikeouts means less damage. The Orioles have some pretty impressive K-BB numbers too: 18.6% on the road, 16.3% vs RHP and 23.4% over the last week. Archer has allowed a .242 wOBA to RHBs with a 24.2 K-BB% and 32.4 Hard%, significant when facing the Orioles.

Luis Perdomo makes it a second straight day with a late pitcher swap. While not having the upside of Lamet, he’s still been more than competent against RHBs in his career with a 12.2 K-BB%, 67.7 GB% and 28 Hard%. That should play against a predominantly RH Detroit lineup in a pitcher’s park.

J.A. Happ struggled in his first two starts back from injury, but has struck out 17 of his last 53 with just one walk. He just cut back on his changeup and threw more fastballs and sliders. When at his best, it’s always been the fastball. Not that he throws it particularly hard and this year he seems to be throwing more two-seamers than ever before. He now has a career high 27 K%, 22.7 K-BB% and 10.9 SwStr% with small sample size caveats still applying. He also has one of the better matchups on the board in Kansas City.

Jimmy Nelson has double digit strikeouts in three of his last five starts, though just a total of 10 with seven runs in 11.2 innings in the other two. Aside from his career high 18.1 K-BB% this year, perhaps just as impressive has been his ability to avoid barrels (3.7% per BBE). The amazing thing about his last start against the Padres is that he threw only two sliders. Tonight, he’s on the road in a power friendly park against a team without much power, but one that doesn’t strike out a lot either.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed three more HRs in his last start, but also struck out 10. It was the third time in in five starts with at least eight strikeouts, but also the fourth time in seven starts with at least three HRs. He’s up to 21 on the year with only two of those homer frenzy starts at home. His bat missing has been elite, but he’s also leaving too many pitches up over the plate, which are being hammered. His location has been garbage as this article from a month ago suggests. Since then, he’s increased his usage of splitters and sliders, increasing his strikeout rate, but he’s still locating like crap too often. The good news is that strikeouts are just as good as HRs are bad in daily fantasy and Texas is merely an average offense that strikes out a lot (26.3% on the road, 23.3% vs RHP), though they have a league leading 29.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.

Michael Fulmer has struggled in three starts in June surrounding some type of shoulder issue diagnosis that only caused him to miss one start. In 18 innings, he’s struck out nine with five walks (four in his last start) and 13 runs allowed despite no HRs. He did have a 12.0 SwStr% with increased velocity in his last start despite walking more than he struck out, so it’s a bit perplexing. His 25% 95+ mph EV is still best on the board and he might be in the top spot in San Diego tonight (25.7 K% vs RHP).

Stephen Strasburg snapped a streak of five starts with at least seven strikeouts in his last start. He failed to finish six innings and only struck out five of 23 Mets, though still with an 11.3 SwStr%, that too a low for his last six starts. He’s otherwise been an absolute beast over this stretch, allowing hard contact on just 24.7% of contact as well. Cincinnati has some power, but has more often been successful at home. Washington is run neutral, but power suppressing, at least to LHBs.

Yu Darvish has been inconsistent in many different ways this season. His 25.8 K% is a career low with an 11.1 SwStr% that’s just 0.2 points from a career low. He has just as many starts of five or fewer strikeouts as he has of eight or more and he’s already allowed 13 HRs. Only once has he allowed more than 14. He’s also in one of the worst spots on the board on the road against the Yankees (20.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 18.1 HR/FB vs RHP).

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)

Mike Pelfrey (.256 – 71.5% – 8.6) hasn’t been terrible, but don’t buy into the strikeout rate spike.

Jose Urena (.244 – 79.6% – 11.3) has a double digit SwStr% in three of his last five starts, so that’s something interesting, though it hasn’t pushed his strikeout rate up much.

Kyle Freeland (.291 – 79.4% – 12.7) keeps the ball on the ground (58.7%) and is not pitching at Coors tonight, so he should be usable, right? He has just a 1.7 K-BB% on the road and the Dodgers, who have made Dodger Stadium look like Coors against the Mets this week, have actually been good against LHP this year.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Jameson Taillon has had one good start and one bad one since kicking the crap out of cancer, but has gone just five innings with no more than 80 pitches in either one. He’s thrown more in previous starts this season, so I’m not sure how long this is going to be a thing for. His peripherals are average, while he’s kept the ball on the ground 53% of the time with a 28.7% hard hit rate and 20.6% soft contact rate. The other problem is that he’s generated his two lowest SwStr rates since returning despite not seeing a drop off in strikeouts. St Louis is a fairly neutral matchup, though they’ve shown more power than almost any other team in the league over the last week (28.6 HR/FB). If he’s going to throw 90-100 pitches, this is a tier four arm, but probably not for any less than that.

Luis Castillo generated a 21.4 K-BB% in 14 starts, but at AA this season, a league he was a bit old for. He’s been traded for Andrew Cashner (aborted) and Dan Straily by the Marlins already at just 24 years-old. Fangraphs grades him the 10th best prospect in the system with a 45 grade, but can’t really project his future with confidence, forecasting anything from middle of the rotation upside to bullpen. That’s sometimes the case with these guys who shine below AAA at advanced ages. Washington is a tough offense, but he’ll have that unknown bonus going for him at a near minimum cost.

Trevor Bauer had nine walks and eight strikeouts in three starts (10.2 IP) leading up to his last one, where he went seven innings with eight strikeouts in Minnesota. I don’t know what to expect with him…ever. He has the highest portion of contact allowed at 95+ mph off the bat on the board today. I do not expect him to retain that strikeout rate all season though. The Twins get a rematch tonight. They’ve been the coldest offense in the league

Rick Porcello has now allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts, although all on the road. Fenway is run positive, but power negative and the Angels don’t have a lot of power. However, the strikeout rate has also cratered over the last month. The good news is that the SwStr% hasn’t fallen as far, but it’s still down.

John Lackey has a nice matchup in Miami, but has seen a steady dip in his strikeout rate as the season has gone along. His Statcast contact authority rates are more optimistic than Fangraphs.

Patrick Corbin doesn’t miss by much against the Phillies, but allows too much hard contact in a bad park. When’s that humidor supposed to start working by the way?

Alex Meyer does have some upside as you see in the K/SwStr chart, but still somehow only has an average K-BB% and is facing a low strikeout offense in a tough park.

Felix Hernandez returns from a shoulder injury. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since April. He did strike out 16 of 50 AAA batters in three starts, though with just a 40 GB%. I’m not even sure why we’ve used this much space for a pitcher returning from a shoulder issue to face Houston.

Seth Lugo has looked decent in his first two starts, though he’s missing fewer bats than average and has stranded 85.5% of his runners. San Francisco should be a great spot for him, but it’s not a high strikeout one and you’re going to need a few for close to $8K, while the Giants have been a better offense in June (108 wRC+).

Adam Wainwright

Joe Musgrove has only walked a total of three over his last three starts, though only one of those starts can be considered good. He gets a park upgrade tonight, but faces a tough offense.

Mike Foltynewicz

Ubaldo Jimenez

Ty Blach

Jharel Cotton

Adelberto Mejia

Jakob Junis walked 10 with just seven strikeouts over his first 10.1 innings. He’s struck out 12 with just one walk over his last 54 batters (12.1 innings), but with five HRs. His 41.3% 95+ mph EV is second highest on the board.

Mark Leiter has a -2.4 K-BB% in 19 major league innings in relief. MLB.com still hasn’t officially listed him either as of noon.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher Team Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Adalberto Mejia Twins L2 Years 18.4% 11.7% Road 14.9% 11.9% L14 Days 15.9% 11.4%
Adam Wainwright Cardinals L2 Years 18.9% 7.5% Home 19.5% 7.6% L14 Days 13.9% 8.3%
Alex Meyer Angels L2 Years 26.0% 14.9% Road 27.4% 17.8% L14 Days 30.4% 13.0%
Alex Wood Dodgers L2 Years 22.6% 7.2% Home 29.3% 6.0% L14 Days 24.0% 0.0%
Chris Archer Rays L2 Years 28.0% 8.1% Home 31.6% 7.3% L14 Days 30.2% 7.6%
Dinelson Lamet Padres L2 Years 34.6% 8.4% Home 31.1% 4.4% L14 Days 40.0% 2.2%
Felix Hernandez Mariners L2 Years 20.0% 8.0% Home 19.2% 7.6% L14 Days
J.A. Happ Blue Jays L2 Years 22.1% 6.9% Road 19.6% 7.7% L14 Days 32.1% 1.9%
Jakob Junis Royals L2 Years 17.6% 10.2% Home 3.6% 17.9% L14 Days 22.2% 1.9%
Jameson Taillon Pirates L2 Years 20.3% 5.4% Road 20.6% 5.7% L14 Days 20.5% 6.8%
Jharel Cotton Athletics L2 Years 20.2% 8.1% Road 21.9% 8.9% L14 Days 22.0% 4.0%
Jimmy Nelson Brewers L2 Years 19.5% 9.0% Road 17.3% 9.8% L14 Days 23.0% 6.6%
Joe Musgrove Astros L2 Years 20.3% 6.8% Road 15.6% 5.4% L14 Days 21.4% 7.1%
John Lackey Cubs L2 Years 22.6% 6.9% Road 23.9% 7.9% L14 Days 11.4% 11.4%
Jose Urena Marlins L2 Years 14.5% 8.6% Home 15.2% 8.8% L14 Days 16.7% 6.3%
Kyle Freeland Rockies L2 Years 14.1% 9.0% Road 11.9% 10.2% L14 Days 10.5% 7.0%
Mark Leiter Phillies L2 Years 14.5% 16.9% Road 11.4% 18.2% L14 Days
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees L2 Years 21.1% 4.8% Home 23.2% 4.3% L14 Days 36.7% 6.1%
Michael Fulmer Tigers L2 Years 19.5% 6.2% Road 20.5% 6.6% L14 Days 8.2% 8.2%
Mike Foltynewicz Braves L2 Years 19.6% 6.9% Home 19.2% 8.5% L14 Days 8.2% 8.2%
Mike Pelfrey White Sox L2 Years 12.0% 7.6% Home 14.0% 5.9% L14 Days 18.2% 11.4%
Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks L2 Years 19.6% 7.5% Home 19.9% 8.7% L14 Days 25.5% 5.9%
Rick Porcello Red Sox L2 Years 21.3% 4.0% Home 21.3% 3.4% L14 Days 12.3% 3.5%
Seth Lugo Mets L2 Years 17.6% 7.9% Road 17.8% 7.9% L14 Days 19.0% 6.9%
Stephen Strasburg Nationals L2 Years 31.2% 6.4% Home 30.3% 5.9% L14 Days 31.9% 6.4%
Trevor Bauer Indians L2 Years 22.4% 9.2% Home 23.1% 8.3% L14 Days 25.0% 9.6%
Ty Blach Giants L2 Years 11.9% 5.6% Home 13.1% 5.8% L14 Days 16.4% 5.5%
Ubaldo Jimenez Orioles L2 Years 19.5% 10.5% Road 19.4% 10.5% L14 Days 25.9% 7.4%
Yu Darvish Rangers L2 Years 28.9% 8.4% Road 28.8% 9.5% L14 Days 20.8% 8.3%
Luis Castillo Reds L2 Years 0.0% 0.0% Road L14 Days

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Indians Home 19.1% 9.5% LH 16.6% 9.9% L7Days 14.5% 12.0%
Pirates Road 19.8% 8.8% RH 18.8% 8.6% L7Days 20.8% 8.8%
Red Sox Home 16.7% 9.8% RH 18.5% 8.9% L7Days 19.5% 5.5%
Rockies Road 23.5% 7.7% LH 23.7% 6.5% L7Days 22.3% 4.9%
Orioles Road 25.0% 6.4% RH 23.0% 6.7% L7Days 28.9% 5.5%
Tigers Road 24.3% 9.5% RH 22.9% 9.6% L7Days 22.6% 7.5%
Astros Road 18.4% 8.8% RH 17.7% 7.9% L7Days 17.8% 8.9%
Royals Home 19.7% 6.9% LH 19.0% 7.1% L7Days 23.7% 6.6%
Blue Jays Road 21.3% 8.8% RH 20.2% 7.8% L7Days 17.8% 9.1%
Cardinals Home 20.8% 9.5% RH 21.1% 8.4% L7Days 24.7% 9.5%
White Sox Home 21.0% 8.2% RH 22.7% 6.2% L7Days 21.7% 5.3%
Braves Home 19.1% 7.4% RH 19.3% 7.6% L7Days 19.2% 4.1%
Mariners Home 20.3% 9.6% RH 21.1% 8.3% L7Days 24.7% 9.1%
Marlins Home 19.9% 8.2% RH 20.3% 6.7% L7Days 20.5% 7.7%
Cubs Road 22.7% 10.1% RH 22.3% 9.1% L7Days 19.8% 8.5%
Dodgers Home 22.6% 10.1% LH 21.3% 10.8% L7Days 21.2% 14.0%
Diamondbacks Home 21.6% 9.3% RH 22.2% 9.1% L7Days 18.0% 8.2%
Rangers Road 26.3% 7.8% RH 23.3% 8.8% L7Days 18.7% 9.7%
Padres Home 24.1% 8.4% RH 25.7% 7.5% L7Days 25.1% 9.8%
Brewers Road 23.2% 8.7% RH 24.6% 8.7% L7Days 25.1% 5.5%
Athletics Road 25.7% 8.3% RH 25.0% 9.0% L7Days 28.1% 10.5%
Phillies Road 23.8% 7.0% LH 20.9% 8.1% L7Days 24.9% 9.1%
Angels Road 21.5% 9.5% RH 20.1% 8.5% L7Days 22.4% 5.3%
Giants Home 19.3% 6.6% RH 19.2% 7.6% L7Days 17.6% 7.0%
Reds Road 20.3% 7.6% RH 21.0% 8.5% L7Days 23.8% 8.9%
Twins Road 21.1% 9.1% RH 22.0% 9.8% L7Days 23.1% 9.2%
Mets Road 20.7% 9.1% LH 22.8% 7.9% L7Days 24.9% 8.2%
Rays Home 24.9% 9.6% RH 25.3% 9.0% L7Days 22.6% 8.1%
Yankees Home 22.7% 11.1% RH 22.1% 9.7% L7Days 26.1% 9.0%
Nationals Home 19.3% 8.7% RH 19.4% 9.0% L7Days 19.5% 8.1%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher Team Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Adalberto Mejia Twins L2 Years 35.6% 16.7% 16.3% 2017 35.0% 18.4% 14.7% Road 36.2% 15.0% 21.3% L14 Days 46.9% 18.2% 21.9%
Adam Wainwright Cardinals L2 Years 30.8% 11.8% 11.6% 2017 30.3% 12.5% 10.2% Home 29.9% 4.7% 8.8% L14 Days 42.3% 60.0% 30.8%
Alex Meyer Angels L2 Years 34.4% 11.0% 18.0% 2017 31.3% 8.6% 14.8% Road 37.7% 10.7% 24.7% L14 Days 34.6% 0.0% 11.5%
Alex Wood Dodgers L2 Years 26.7% 11.1% 10.2% 2017 21.9% 6.9% 6.0% Home 24.0% 7.1% 6.2% L14 Days 27.8% 12.5% 16.7%
Chris Archer Rays L2 Years 34.7% 13.4% 18.1% 2017 38.4% 10.0% 22.4% Home 34.6% 10.4% 18.5% L14 Days 33.3% 9.1% 15.1%
Dinelson Lamet Padres L2 Years 35.6% 24.2% 22.0% 2017 35.6% 24.2% 22.0% Home 32.1% 25.0% 28.5% L14 Days 30.8% 35.7% 15.4%
Felix Hernandez Mariners L2 Years 27.9% 15.3% 11.7% 2017 25.6% 27.3% 8.9% Home 30.6% 14.9% 15.8% L14 Days
J.A. Happ Blue Jays L2 Years 32.8% 12.0% 15.1% 2017 29.5% 21.6% 14.3% Road 30.0% 12.9% 12.4% L14 Days 28.6% 0.0% 20.0%
Jakob Junis Royals L2 Years 46.7% 17.6% 30.7% 2017 46.7% 17.6% 30.7% Home 68.2% 12.5% 68.2% L14 Days 42.1% 26.3% 18.4%
Jameson Taillon Pirates L2 Years 31.9% 14.9% 13.6% 2017 28.7% 13.3% 8.1% Road 31.9% 18.8% 13.6% L14 Days 28.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jharel Cotton Athletics L2 Years 32.2% 12.6% 9.5% 2017 33.8% 13.8% 10.9% Road 33.9% 10.5% 10.8% L14 Days 30.6% 20.0% 2.8%
Jimmy Nelson Brewers L2 Years 31.6% 12.5% 11.1% 2017 30.5% 10.0% 9.1% Road 32.1% 12.7% 12.4% L14 Days 12.5% 0.0% -15.0%
Joe Musgrove Astros L2 Years 33.5% 14.4% 15.3% 2017 32.5% 14.9% 14.2% Road 35.9% 17.8% 20.0% L14 Days 53.3% 18.2% 33.3%
John Lackey Cubs L2 Years 32.9% 14.8% 16.5% 2017 37.8% 22.0% 24.0% Road 37.1% 17.3% 24.2% L14 Days 38.2% 30.8% 26.4%
Jose Urena Marlins L2 Years 31.4% 10.8% 10.8% 2017 31.2% 11.3% 11.4% Home 32.2% 12.5% 9.6% L14 Days 27.3% 0.0% 15.2%
Kyle Freeland Rockies L2 Years 32.0% 12.7% 10.9% 2017 32.0% 12.7% 10.9% Road 35.4% 14.3% 19.2% L14 Days 26.1% 16.7% 2.2%
Mark Leiter Phillies L2 Years 22.8% 14.3% -5.3% 2017 22.8% 14.3% -5.3% Road 29.0% 22.2% 6.4% L14 Days
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees L2 Years 32.9% 16.6% 14.5% 2017 35.0% 25.0% 16.9% Home 34.9% 18.1% 18.1% L14 Days 39.3% 36.4% 32.2%
Michael Fulmer Tigers L2 Years 29.1% 9.0% 11.1% 2017 26.9% 5.1% 10.9% Road 26.4% 9.8% 7.2% L14 Days 36.6% 0.0% 24.4%
Mike Foltynewicz Braves L2 Years 30.3% 14.4% 12.7% 2017 28.9% 14.8% 13.8% Home 30.5% 8.4% 13.6% L14 Days 34.2% 14.3% 29.3%
Mike Pelfrey White Sox L2 Years 30.8% 10.4% 10.7% 2017 29.4% 8.6% 6.2% Home 33.4% 17.7% 12.9% L14 Days 26.7% 0.0% 6.7%
Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks L2 Years 36.1% 16.6% 20.5% 2017 36.3% 18.1% 21.0% Home 40.8% 16.7% 27.8% L14 Days 38.2% 8.3% 23.5%
Rick Porcello Red Sox L2 Years 34.1% 11.5% 17.6% 2017 43.1% 12.7% 26.7% Home 35.5% 8.1% 17.7% L14 Days 47.9% 11.1% 41.6%
Seth Lugo Mets L2 Years 35.8% 10.7% 18.6% 2017 23.8% 13.3% 4.7% Road 32.4% 5.4% 19.8% L14 Days 23.8% 13.3% 4.7%
Stephen Strasburg Nationals L2 Years 27.2% 11.3% 5.5% 2017 28.0% 11.5% 7.5% Home 29.9% 14.0% 10.5% L14 Days 32.1% 37.5% 17.8%
Trevor Bauer Indians L2 Years 33.4% 14.3% 15.1% 2017 39.1% 18.8% 24.7% Home 34.7% 18.0% 19.4% L14 Days 39.4% 11.1% 21.2%
Ty Blach Giants L2 Years 30.7% 8.3% 11.0% 2017 30.8% 8.6% 12.2% Home 29.0% 2.1% 9.6% L14 Days 34.9% 12.5% 11.6%
Ubaldo Jimenez Orioles L2 Years 30.1% 14.1% 12.1% 2017 33.8% 20.9% 17.1% Road 31.1% 11.1% 14.1% L14 Days 33.3% 20.0% 22.2%
Yu Darvish Rangers L2 Years 31.2% 13.2% 11.2% 2017 32.4% 14.6% 15.2% Road 24.9% 10.8% 1.0% L14 Days 27.3% 10.0% 0.0%
Luis Castillo Reds L2 Years 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2017 Road L14 Days

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Indians Home 30.9% 14.2% 14.4% LH 32.6% 12.7% 15.4% L7Days 35.3% 13.6% 20.0%
Pirates Road 30.6% 11.9% 9.2% RH 30.4% 10.6% 8.7% L7Days 30.9% 16.4% 11.2%
Red Sox Home 38.2% 7.4% 20.9% RH 36.1% 10.2% 18.8% L7Days 35.2% 10.6% 18.2%
Rockies Road 29.7% 12.6% 9.9% LH 32.2% 16.4% 12.4% L7Days 27.6% 15.7% 5.5%
Orioles Road 33.9% 13.7% 14.7% RH 30.0% 15.5% 9.2% L7Days 32.7% 26.4% 10.5%
Tigers Road 35.5% 13.0% 18.6% RH 42.4% 12.5% 27.5% L7Days 36.8% 14.5% 20.6%
Astros Road 33.4% 15.2% 16.3% RH 32.8% 15.8% 15.8% L7Days 40.6% 20.3% 27.2%
Royals Home 31.8% 9.4% 12.9% LH 30.3% 11.3% 11.3% L7Days 31.5% 14.3% 13.0%
Blue Jays Road 32.8% 15.7% 13.7% RH 31.3% 15.5% 11.6% L7Days 37.2% 12.5% 21.0%
Cardinals Home 30.1% 10.4% 10.2% RH 31.1% 14.0% 12.1% L7Days 35.0% 28.6% 16.9%
White Sox Home 29.2% 12.5% 8.5% RH 31.6% 13.4% 13.1% L7Days 34.8% 18.9% 21.3%
Braves Home 29.8% 11.8% 11.2% RH 31.4% 11.9% 13.2% L7Days 27.5% 19.3% 6.4%
Mariners Home 29.5% 12.0% 9.9% RH 31.2% 11.9% 13.2% L7Days 30.8% 15.5% 12.5%
Marlins Home 32.0% 16.2% 10.7% RH 31.1% 14.2% 11.1% L7Days 27.1% 12.5% 7.2%
Cubs Road 29.0% 14.0% 8.2% RH 29.9% 14.1% 12.0% L7Days 30.1% 20.0% 7.7%
Dodgers Home 36.2% 18.8% 21.9% LH 33.6% 15.9% 18.9% L7Days 41.7% 30.6% 28.3%
Diamondbacks Home 39.9% 18.4% 26.8% RH 36.6% 16.5% 19.3% L7Days 34.6% 17.3% 10.3%
Rangers Road 30.9% 14.6% 10.0% RH 33.7% 16.1% 13.8% L7Days 44.6% 21.5% 29.0%
Padres Home 28.4% 12.9% 6.1% RH 28.9% 14.6% 6.1% L7Days 25.7% 16.9% -2.7%
Brewers Road 30.4% 17.2% 11.1% RH 33.5% 19.3% 14.1% L7Days 31.4% 27.7% 11.6%
Athletics Road 35.8% 10.7% 17.7% RH 34.2% 14.1% 17.9% L7Days 27.7% 8.5% 11.6%
Phillies Road 28.7% 10.2% 7.3% LH 29.4% 14.9% 9.5% L7Days 34.6% 10.4% 13.8%
Angels Road 32.9% 11.5% 13.6% RH 30.9% 13.5% 11.3% L7Days 32.1% 16.4% 15.4%
Giants Home 24.7% 6.4% 3.1% RH 28.1% 9.6% 5.8% L7Days 29.9% 14.7% 6.4%
Reds Road 29.4% 14.2% 10.0% RH 29.1% 14.3% 8.8% L7Days 33.1% 12.7% 18.2%
Twins Road 32.0% 13.4% 14.9% RH 33.8% 13.9% 17.8% L7Days 36.1% 9.6% 16.6%
Mets Road 37.3% 16.9% 19.9% LH 34.7% 11.8% 13.2% L7Days 28.9% 15.7% 10.2%
Rays Home 37.5% 16.1% 19.8% RH 36.7% 19.1% 19.9% L7Days 45.0% 20.0% 28.2%
Yankees Home 31.6% 20.9% 10.4% RH 32.1% 18.1% 13.1% L7Days 23.9% 17.3% 4.9%
Nationals Home 32.3% 15.5% 15.5% RH 31.5% 14.7% 13.9% L7Days 35.7% 18.9% 15.8%

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher Team K% Season SwStr% Season K%/SwStr% K% L30 Days SwStr% L30 Days K%/SwStr%
Adalberto Mejia MIN 19.7% 9.4% 2.10 20.9% 10.2% 2.05
Adam Wainwright STL 18.6% 7.8% 2.38 17.8% 6.5% 2.74
Alex Meyer ANA 27.1% 11.3% 2.40 28.1% 15.3% 1.84
Alex Wood LOS 29.8% 12.1% 2.46 29.4% 12.0% 2.45
Chris Archer TAM 30.1% 13.2% 2.28 32.9% 14.1% 2.33
Dinelson Lamet SDG 34.6% 14.2% 2.44 34.6% 14.2% 2.44
Felix Hernandez SEA 18.6% 8.7% 2.14
J.A. Happ TOR 27.0% 10.9% 2.48 25.5% 11.6% 2.20
Jakob Junis KAN 17.6% 9.7% 1.81 16.9% 11.2% 1.51
Jameson Taillon PIT 20.2% 7.9% 2.56 20.5% 5.6% 3.66
Jharel Cotton OAK 20.1% 9.8% 2.05 19.5% 9.3% 2.10
Jimmy Nelson MIL 24.0% 10.5% 2.29 26.7% 12.3% 2.17
Joe Musgrove HOU 19.2% 10.5% 1.83 22.7% 11.6% 1.96
John Lackey CHC 21.8% 10.4% 2.10 18.2% 9.4% 1.94
Jose Urena MIA 14.9% 8.5% 1.75 17.5% 10.0% 1.75
Kyle Freeland COL 14.1% 6.7% 2.10 13.4% 7.8% 1.72
Mark Leiter PHI 14.5% 5.4% 2.69 16.7% 7.8% 2.14
Masahiro Tanaka NYY 22.2% 13.5% 1.64 29.8% 15.0% 1.99
Michael Fulmer DET 17.8% 9.7% 1.84 11.8% 8.0% 1.48
Mike Foltynewicz ATL 18.2% 8.3% 2.19 18.5% 7.0% 2.64
Mike Pelfrey CHW 14.8% 6.5% 2.28 21.4% 6.5% 3.29
Patrick Corbin ARI 18.9% 10.1% 1.87 19.7% 9.4% 2.10
Rick Porcello BOS 20.5% 10.2% 2.01 15.8% 9.1% 1.74
Seth Lugo NYM 19.0% 8.5% 2.24 19.0% 8.5% 2.24
Stephen Strasburg WAS 28.1% 12.2% 2.30 35.7% 14.3% 2.50
Trevor Bauer CLE 27.6% 8.8% 3.14 27.9% 8.4% 3.32
Ty Blach SFO 11.1% 6.7% 1.66 14.6% 8.3% 1.76
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL 18.8% 7.6% 2.47 25.0% 10.3% 2.43
Yu Darvish TEX 25.8% 11.1% 2.32 24.2% 10.9% 2.22
Luis Castillo CIN


Masahiro Tanaka has seen a rise in strikeouts and even more swinging strikes with an increase of splitters and sliders.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher Team Season
ERA
Season
SIERA
DIFF Season
xFIP
DIFF Season
FIP
DIFF Season
DRA
DIFF ERA
L30
SIERA
L30
DIFF xFIP
L30
DIFF FIP
L30
DIFF
Adalberto Mejia MIN 5.53 5.13 -0.4 5.3 -0.23 6.01 0.48 5.39 -0.14 5.92 4.82 -1.1 4.91 -1.01 5.51 -0.41
Adam Wainwright STL 5.75 4.63 -1.12 4.41 -1.34 4.26 -1.49 6.90 1.15 7.71 4.61 -3.1 4.51 -3.2 5.27 -2.44
Alex Meyer ANA 3.52 4.61 1.09 4.26 0.74 3.74 0.22 3.93 0.41 1.19 4.09 2.9 3.58 2.39 3.04 1.85
Alex Wood LOS 1.9 2.68 0.78 2.56 0.66 2.14 0.24 2.45 0.55 1.93 2.44 0.51 2.66 0.73 2.49 0.56
Chris Archer TAM 3.75 3.39 -0.36 3.33 -0.42 2.88 -0.87 2.03 -1.72 3.74 2.8 -0.94 2.61 -1.13 2.33 -1.41
Dinelson Lamet SDG 7.5 3.16 -4.34 3.89 -3.61 5.76 -1.74 4.05 -3.45 7.5 3.16 -4.34 3.89 -3.61 5.76 -1.74
Felix Hernandez SEA 4.73 3.78 -0.95 3.53 -1.2 4.97 0.24 3.78 -0.95
J.A. Happ TOR 4.26 3.28 -0.98 3.12 -1.14 4.1 -0.16 3.73 -0.53 4.09 3.74 -0.35 3.54 -0.55 4.27 0.18
Jakob Junis KAN 5.56 5.23 -0.33 6 0.44 6.75 1.19 6.03 0.47 6.75 4.78 -1.97 5.74 -1.01 7.69 0.94
Jameson Taillon PIT 3.38 4.2 0.82 3.79 0.41 3.75 0.37 4.19 0.81 3.6 3.93 0.33 3.31 -0.29 2.23 -1.37
Jharel Cotton OAK 5.4 4.9 -0.5 5.34 -0.06 5.34 -0.06 7.16 1.76 5.02 5.16 0.14 5.79 0.77 6.2 1.18
Jimmy Nelson MIL 3.28 3.69 0.41 3.53 0.25 3.12 -0.16 3.55 0.27 2.66 2.91 0.25 2.72 0.06 2.34 -0.32
Joe Musgrove HOU 5.09 4.59 -0.5 4.58 -0.51 4.73 -0.36 7.20 2.11 3.63 4.04 0.41 4.2 0.57 3.42 -0.21
John Lackey CHC 4.98 4.25 -0.73 4.36 -0.62 5.54 0.56 6.32 1.34 5.28 4.9 -0.38 4.96 -0.32 6.44 1.16
Jose Urena MIA 3.64 5.23 1.59 5.58 1.94 5.17 1.53 5.64 2.00 5.46 5.25 -0.21 5.52 0.06 6 0.54
Kyle Freeland COL 3.42 4.87 1.45 4.73 1.31 4.61 1.19 5.23 1.81 3.3 4.7 1.4 4.69 1.39 4.86 1.56
Mark Leiter PHI 4.74 5.76 1.02 5.4 0.66 5.45 0.71 4.33 -0.41 4.5 4.5 0 4.4 -0.1 5.13 0.63
Masahiro Tanaka NYY 6.34 4.01 -2.33 4.06 -2.28 5.65 -0.69 5.14 -1.20 5.97 3.14 -2.83 3.12 -2.85 4.8 -1.17
Michael Fulmer DET 3.45 4.33 0.88 4.15 0.7 3.11 -0.34 2.89 -0.56 5.54 4.93 -0.61 4.62 -0.92 2.82 -2.72
Mike Foltynewicz ATL 4.26 4.65 0.39 4.56 0.3 4.7 0.44 6.23 1.97 4.94 4.76 -0.18 4.75 -0.19 4.89 -0.05
Mike Pelfrey CHW 3.56 5.17 1.61 5.09 1.53 4.39 0.83 3.76 0.20 2.08 4.42 2.34 4.37 2.29 3.28 1.2
Patrick Corbin ARI 5.19 4.33 -0.86 4.25 -0.94 4.84 -0.35 6.48 1.29 6.75 4.21 -2.54 4.25 -2.5 5.57 -1.18
Rick Porcello BOS 5.05 4.16 -0.89 4.36 -0.69 4.16 -0.89 5.42 0.37 6.27 4.75 -1.52 4.99 -1.28 4.34 -1.93
Seth Lugo NYM 2.63 4.56 1.93 4.59 1.96 4.52 1.89 5.62 2.99 2.63 4.57 1.94 4.59 1.96 4.52 1.89
Stephen Strasburg WAS 3.28 3.44 0.16 3.28 0 3.02 -0.26 2.39 -0.89 3.26 2.7 -0.56 2.48 -0.78 3.2 -0.06
Trevor Bauer CLE 5.54 3.78 -1.76 3.53 -2.01 4.08 -1.46 3.92 -1.62 3.9 3.78 -0.12 3.43 -0.47 3.1 -0.8
Ty Blach SFO 4.23 5.08 0.85 4.78 0.55 4.07 -0.16 5.90 1.67 4.37 4.51 0.14 4.29 -0.08 3.56 -0.81
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL 6.25 4.88 -1.37 4.83 -1.42 5.8 -0.45 6.65 0.40 4.35 3.45 -0.9 3.56 -0.79 3.71 -0.64
Yu Darvish TEX 3.35 4.07 0.72 4.03 0.68 4.13 0.78 2.69 -0.66 4.45 3.96 -0.49 4.49 0.04 4.61 0.16
Luis Castillo CIN


Alex Wood has an unsustainably low 6.9 HR/FB, but allows so few fly balls that he may not even see that correction this year.

J.A. Happ has an 80.5 LOB%, which should mean he’s running an ERA below his estimators, but a 21.6 HR/FB, double his career rate despite a similar rate of hard contact has pushed things too far in the other direction.

Masahiro Tanaka has a .324 BABIP, nearly 50 points above his career rate with a career low 68.5 LOB% and 25.0 HR/FB that’s 10 points above his career average. A lot of it’s his own fault, but more consistently locating better could solve a lot of these problems as long as they’re not due to injury.

Michael Fulmer has a 5.1 HR/FB and hasn’t allowed one in eight starts. That will end at some point, but maybe not in San Diego.

Yu Darvish has a .247 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%, while allowing a few more HRs than he normally does as well. His estimators are up nearly a run over his career rates. His 16.4 K-BB% is still above average, but four points below his elite career level.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher Team Team BABIP Pitcher BABIP Diff GB% Pitcher LD% Pitcher IFFB% Pitcher Zcontact Exit
Velocity
Barrels
BBE
Barrels
PA
BBE
Adalberto Mejia MIN 0.291 0.298 0.007 42.3% 0.179 8.2% 84.9% 88.5 9.80% 6.60% 123
Adam Wainwright STL 0.296 0.358 0.062 48.3% 0.239 10.9% 90.6% 85.7 5.60% 4.00% 234
Alex Meyer ANA 0.290 0.286 -0.004 47.4% 0.219 14.3% 86.5% 86.7 6.10% 3.40% 115
Alex Wood LOS 0.281 0.268 -0.013 66.9% 0.139 13.8% 86.0% 85.3 2.60% 1.70% 151
Chris Archer TAM 0.295 0.315 0.02 42.7% 0.21 11.1% 81.8% 89 6.00% 3.70% 250
Dinelson Lamet SDG 0.298 0.294 -0.004 32.2% 0.119 0.0% 80.3% 88.9 18.60% 10.30% 59
Felix Hernandez SEA 0.284 0.388 0.104 50.0% 0.25 4.5% 91.9% 86.2 10.00% 7.60% 90
J.A. Happ TOR 0.302 0.298 -0.004 46.8% 0.198 2.7% 84.8% 87.7 8.90% 6.10% 112
Jakob Junis KAN 0.301 0.319 0.018 34.2% 0.192 11.8% 86.6% 88.8 8.00% 5.60% 75
Jameson Taillon PIT 0.306 0.326 0.02 53.0% 0.242 10.0% 90.4% 85.5 5.10% 3.60% 136
Jharel Cotton OAK 0.295 0.279 -0.016 36.4% 0.154 13.8% 82.8% 85.8 5.00% 3.40% 201
Jimmy Nelson MIL 0.301 0.339 0.038 49.6% 0.21 4.3% 85.3% 85 3.70% 2.50% 243
Joe Musgrove HOU 0.290 0.316 0.026 40.9% 0.207 9.5% 87.2% 86.4 5.60% 4.10% 197
John Lackey CHC 0.287 0.279 -0.008 44.8% 0.172 8.8% 85.7% 86.8 6.90% 4.80% 246
Jose Urena MIA 0.289 0.244 -0.045 40.9% 0.187 12.5% 89.5% 85.7 8.90% 6.50% 202
Kyle Freeland COL 0.292 0.291 -0.001 58.7% 0.17 11.1% 91.3% 85.7 4.10% 3.10% 266
Mark Leiter PHI 0.304 0.164 -0.14 58.9% 0.161 0.0% 90.1% 82.8 3.50% 2.40% 57
Masahiro Tanaka NYY 0.286 0.324 0.038 46.7% 0.183 13.1% 86.2% 89.4 11.10% 7.90% 243
Michael Fulmer DET 0.311 0.295 -0.016 49.2% 0.211 11.4% 87.7% 85.9 4.50% 3.40% 268
Mike Foltynewicz ATL 0.283 0.308 0.025 40.3% 0.247 7.4% 86.6% 87.1 6.70% 4.90% 239
Mike Pelfrey CHW 0.284 0.256 -0.028 47.7% 0.193 8.6% 89.0% 87.1 5.10% 3.80% 177
Patrick Corbin ARI 0.291 0.335 0.044 49.6% 0.185 9.6% 86.6% 89.5 8.40% 6.20% 263
Rick Porcello BOS 0.313 0.366 0.053 37.2% 0.22 8.7% 86.4% 88.7 9.00% 6.70% 311
Seth Lugo NYM 0.317 0.275 -0.042 39.0% 0.244 6.7% 91.8% 85.1 7.10% 5.20% 42
Stephen Strasburg WAS 0.297 0.278 -0.019 46.0% 0.209 9.0% 84.4% 88 8.40% 5.40% 239
Trevor Bauer CLE 0.308 0.342 0.034 48.0% 0.197 10.9% 87.5% 90.1 10.40% 6.50% 202
Ty Blach SFO 0.317 0.277 -0.04 48.8% 0.195 8.6% 89.6% 86.1 4.20% 3.50% 263
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL 0.315 0.277 -0.038 45.4% 0.201 10.4% 88.6% 88.2 7.60% 5.30% 198
Yu Darvish TEX 0.287 0.247 -0.04 40.5% 0.227 5.6% 85.3% 86.2 7.00% 4.40% 244
Luis Castillo CIN 0.284


Jimmy Nelson doesn’t generate a lot of popups, but has on otherwise standard BABIP profile and hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact. It hasn’t much affected his ERA because his 10.0 HR/FB is a bit low in this new era.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Article Image

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Alex Wood (1t) still costs less than $10K because he only throws 90 pitches per game. He got through eight innings last time out with 89. His per pitch numbers are on par with that of a much more expensive arm. Even with limitations, he’s a $10K arm, as I’d pay much more with normal workload expectations.

Value Tier Two

Chris Archer (1t) is up to $12.5K on DraftKIngs and not the best pitch for pitch arm on the board in my estimation. He may be a top five arm in the American League though and is in a high strikeout spot against Baltimore.

Stephen Strasburg (3) took a step back in his last start, but still wasn’t bad. He’s been a strikeout dominating, weak contact generating monster over the last month or so, but we’re going to want more than six innings at this price and he hasn’t done that in three starts, which separates him a bit from the two above him value wise.

Value Tier Three

Masahiro Tanaka may give up three bombs, but if they only amount to three to five runs while he strikes out 10 or more, that’s well worth less than $7K on DraftKings, though a quality start may be more necessary for a higher FanDuel price.

J.A. Happ has been missing more bats and is in a good spot at a reasonable cost. He seems to have settled in well after struggling to find his way immediately after returning from the DL.

Luis Perdomo replaces Dinelson Lamet. He could be even more difficult for Detroit as he keeps the ball on the ground against RHBs and misses bats at a league average rate. That should play in an SP2 role on DraftKings at a low cost.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Yu Darvish hasn’t struck out more than 10 this season and hasn’t even done that since April. Theoretically, he could pop off 12 or so and give you great value for less than $10K, but this is one of the most dangerous spots on the board.

Michael Fulmer has struggled through three June starts and may have a shoulder issue. That usually means an automatic fade and he started out that way too until seeing the matchup. You may not even need a healthy throwing shoulder to put the Padres in their place. However, like in many other spots today, his FanDuel cost may be too aggressive. There’s no way he and Archer are worth the same cost.

Jimmy Nelson hasn’t exactly been consistent and is not in a high strikeout spot tonight, but we have to at least consider someone with three starts of at least seven innings and 10 Ks in his last five outings.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.