Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 23rd
There are only two $10K+ pitchers tonight with two more in the $9K range, but it’s a solid full slate with a little bit of everything. We have a return from the disabled list, two first time starters, and perhaps some low cost upside as well. We’re going to try Alex Wood again today. I hope today’s the day. He’ll have more competition for the top spot though.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
NOTE: Luis Perdomo will start for the Padres this evening, not Dinelson Lamet.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 3.9 | 5.23 | 4.47 | 41.5% | 1.09 | 6.15 | 5.45 | CLE | 103 | 99 | 154 |
Adam Wainwright | STL | -7.8 | 4.39 | 5.75 | 45.2% | 0.98 | 4.01 | 5.07 | PIT | 89 | 93 | 92 |
Alex Meyer | ANA | -1.5 | 4.73 | 4.67 | 42.5% | 1.13 | 4.94 | 3.99 | BOS | 94 | 92 | 71 |
Alex Wood | LOS | 2 | 3.55 | 5.72 | 55.5% | 0.89 | 2.58 | 2.66 | COL | 88 | 92 | 107 |
Chris Archer | TAM | 0.5 | 3.46 | 6.21 | 45.0% | 0.96 | 3.02 | 3.33 | BAL | 91 | 95 | 117 |
Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -9.1 | 3.16 | 4.8 | 32.2% | 0.91 | 4.11 | 2.04 | DET | 85 | 98 | 93 |
Felix Hernandez | SEA | 7.9 | 4.11 | 6.19 | 51.9% | 0.89 | 4.17 | HOU | 125 | 123 | 148 | |
J.A. Happ | TOR | -2.3 | 3.95 | 5.81 | 42.8% | 1.06 | 4.45 | 2.55 | KAN | 79 | 81 | 71 |
Jakob Junis | KAN | 7.8 | 5.24 | 5.05 | 34.2% | 1.06 | 9 | 3.8 | TOR | 91 | 92 | 112 |
Jameson Taillon | PIT | -6.8 | 3.79 | 5.73 | 52.6% | 0.98 | 3.54 | 3.93 | STL | 96 | 97 | 125 |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | -14.2 | 4.64 | 5.65 | 36.8% | 0.98 | 4.75 | 4.25 | CHW | 104 | 85 | 126 |
Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.4 | 4.39 | 5.78 | 50.2% | 1 | 4.89 | 3.52 | ATL | 92 | 94 | 101 |
Joe Musgrove | HOU | -1.9 | 4.29 | 5.5 | 42.1% | 0.89 | 4.36 | 4.37 | SEA | 112 | 106 | 120 |
John Lackey | CHC | 4.3 | 3.89 | 6.42 | 44.2% | 0.94 | 3.83 | 5.95 | MIA | 96 | 93 | 78 |
Jose Urena | MIA | 4.6 | 5.03 | 5.16 | 44.3% | 0.94 | 5.06 | 4.58 | CHC | 92 | 89 | 123 |
Kyle Freeland | COL | 1.1 | 4.87 | 5.8 | 58.7% | 0.89 | 5.55 | 4.33 | LOS | 122 | 105 | 164 |
Mark Leiter | PHI | 2.4 | 5.76 | 58.9% | 1.13 | 6.36 | ARI | 119 | 107 | 118 | ||
Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.8 | 3.76 | 6.26 | 47.8% | 1.01 | 3.51 | 2.61 | TEX | 80 | 96 | 127 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.6 | 4.14 | 6.28 | 49.2% | 0.91 | 3.85 | 5.59 | SDG | 86 | 83 | 77 |
Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -0.6 | 4.35 | 5.54 | 39.6% | 1 | 4.6 | 6.77 | MIL | 94 | 96 | 100 |
Mike Pelfrey | CHW | -0.3 | 4.99 | 5.06 | 49.9% | 0.98 | 4.77 | 5.13 | OAK | 81 | 101 | 100 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | -7.4 | 4.12 | 5.46 | 50.9% | 1.13 | 4.26 | 3.56 | PHI | 72 | 81 | 81 |
Rick Porcello | BOS | 2.7 | 3.79 | 6.47 | 42.8% | 1.13 | 4.04 | 5.12 | ANA | 82 | 93 | 119 |
Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.5 | 4.64 | 6.02 | 42.1% | 0.93 | 4.49 | 4.57 | SFO | 72 | 79 | 106 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0 | 2.99 | 6.28 | 0.421 | 1.01 | 3.21 | 3.07 | CIN | 94 | 100 | 106 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | -4.5 | 4.15 | 5.8 | 0.466 | 1.09 | 3.84 | 3.91 | MIN | 95 | 99 | 62 |
Ty Blach | SFO | 0.6 | 4.97 | 6.31 | 0.502 | 0.93 | 4.52 | 4.76 | NYM | 111 | 89 | 99 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -2.7 | 4.58 | 5.44 | 0.489 | 0.96 | 4.67 | 3.62 | TAM | 112 | 115 | 127 |
Yu Darvish | TEX | 4.5 | 3.54 | 6.07 | 0.404 | 1.01 | 3.7 | 4.25 | NYY | 131 | 122 | 86 |
Luis Castillo | CIN | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.01 | WAS | 116 | 108 | 98 |
Alex Wood allowed one run in eight innings with five strikeouts last time out in Cincinnati. It was actually a poor start by his season standards. Strikeouts (18.5%) and ground balls (52.4%) were down. For the season, he has a 29.8 K% and 66.9 GB% with a 2.6% Barrels/BBE (26.5% 95+ mph EV). The drawback is that he doesn’t often exceed 90 pitches with a high of 96 on the season. Perhaps the extra day of rest persuades the Dodgers to extend that leash. The Rockies have a 17.2 K-BB% vs LHP.
Chris Archer has at least eight strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts with no fewer than six. He’s dropped his HR/FB six points this year, while actually increasing his hard contact the same number of points. Now at a 30.1 K%, his 22.4 K-BB% is a career high and sixth best in baseball. It’s up to 24.3% at home since last year. While the 89 mph aEV is fairly high, he’s done a good job of avoiding barrels (6% per BBE) with the increase in strikeouts dropping that to 3.7% per PA. No matter how hard the contact actually is, more strikeouts means less damage. The Orioles have some pretty impressive K-BB numbers too: 18.6% on the road, 16.3% vs RHP and 23.4% over the last week. Archer has allowed a .242 wOBA to RHBs with a 24.2 K-BB% and 32.4 Hard%, significant when facing the Orioles.
Luis Perdomo makes it a second straight day with a late pitcher swap. While not having the upside of Lamet, he’s still been more than competent against RHBs in his career with a 12.2 K-BB%, 67.7 GB% and 28 Hard%. That should play against a predominantly RH Detroit lineup in a pitcher’s park.
J.A. Happ struggled in his first two starts back from injury, but has struck out 17 of his last 53 with just one walk. He just cut back on his changeup and threw more fastballs and sliders. When at his best, it’s always been the fastball. Not that he throws it particularly hard and this year he seems to be throwing more two-seamers than ever before. He now has a career high 27 K%, 22.7 K-BB% and 10.9 SwStr% with small sample size caveats still applying. He also has one of the better matchups on the board in Kansas City.
Jimmy Nelson has double digit strikeouts in three of his last five starts, though just a total of 10 with seven runs in 11.2 innings in the other two. Aside from his career high 18.1 K-BB% this year, perhaps just as impressive has been his ability to avoid barrels (3.7% per BBE). The amazing thing about his last start against the Padres is that he threw only two sliders. Tonight, he’s on the road in a power friendly park against a team without much power, but one that doesn’t strike out a lot either.
Masahiro Tanaka allowed three more HRs in his last start, but also struck out 10. It was the third time in in five starts with at least eight strikeouts, but also the fourth time in seven starts with at least three HRs. He’s up to 21 on the year with only two of those homer frenzy starts at home. His bat missing has been elite, but he’s also leaving too many pitches up over the plate, which are being hammered. His location has been garbage as this article from a month ago suggests. Since then, he’s increased his usage of splitters and sliders, increasing his strikeout rate, but he’s still locating like crap too often. The good news is that strikeouts are just as good as HRs are bad in daily fantasy and Texas is merely an average offense that strikes out a lot (26.3% on the road, 23.3% vs RHP), though they have a league leading 29.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Michael Fulmer has struggled in three starts in June surrounding some type of shoulder issue diagnosis that only caused him to miss one start. In 18 innings, he’s struck out nine with five walks (four in his last start) and 13 runs allowed despite no HRs. He did have a 12.0 SwStr% with increased velocity in his last start despite walking more than he struck out, so it’s a bit perplexing. His 25% 95+ mph EV is still best on the board and he might be in the top spot in San Diego tonight (25.7 K% vs RHP).
Stephen Strasburg snapped a streak of five starts with at least seven strikeouts in his last start. He failed to finish six innings and only struck out five of 23 Mets, though still with an 11.3 SwStr%, that too a low for his last six starts. He’s otherwise been an absolute beast over this stretch, allowing hard contact on just 24.7% of contact as well. Cincinnati has some power, but has more often been successful at home. Washington is run neutral, but power suppressing, at least to LHBs.
Yu Darvish has been inconsistent in many different ways this season. His 25.8 K% is a career low with an 11.1 SwStr% that’s just 0.2 points from a career low. He has just as many starts of five or fewer strikeouts as he has of eight or more and he’s already allowed 13 HRs. Only once has he allowed more than 14. He’s also in one of the worst spots on the board on the road against the Yankees (20.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 18.1 HR/FB vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Mike Pelfrey (.256 – 71.5% – 8.6) hasn’t been terrible, but don’t buy into the strikeout rate spike.
Jose Urena (.244 – 79.6% – 11.3) has a double digit SwStr% in three of his last five starts, so that’s something interesting, though it hasn’t pushed his strikeout rate up much.
Kyle Freeland (.291 – 79.4% – 12.7) keeps the ball on the ground (58.7%) and is not pitching at Coors tonight, so he should be usable, right? He has just a 1.7 K-BB% on the road and the Dodgers, who have made Dodger Stadium look like Coors against the Mets this week, have actually been good against LHP this year.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jameson Taillon has had one good start and one bad one since kicking the crap out of cancer, but has gone just five innings with no more than 80 pitches in either one. He’s thrown more in previous starts this season, so I’m not sure how long this is going to be a thing for. His peripherals are average, while he’s kept the ball on the ground 53% of the time with a 28.7% hard hit rate and 20.6% soft contact rate. The other problem is that he’s generated his two lowest SwStr rates since returning despite not seeing a drop off in strikeouts. St Louis is a fairly neutral matchup, though they’ve shown more power than almost any other team in the league over the last week (28.6 HR/FB). If he’s going to throw 90-100 pitches, this is a tier four arm, but probably not for any less than that.
Luis Castillo generated a 21.4 K-BB% in 14 starts, but at AA this season, a league he was a bit old for. He’s been traded for Andrew Cashner (aborted) and Dan Straily by the Marlins already at just 24 years-old. Fangraphs grades him the 10th best prospect in the system with a 45 grade, but can’t really project his future with confidence, forecasting anything from middle of the rotation upside to bullpen. That’s sometimes the case with these guys who shine below AAA at advanced ages. Washington is a tough offense, but he’ll have that unknown bonus going for him at a near minimum cost.
Trevor Bauer had nine walks and eight strikeouts in three starts (10.2 IP) leading up to his last one, where he went seven innings with eight strikeouts in Minnesota. I don’t know what to expect with him…ever. He has the highest portion of contact allowed at 95+ mph off the bat on the board today. I do not expect him to retain that strikeout rate all season though. The Twins get a rematch tonight. They’ve been the coldest offense in the league
Rick Porcello has now allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts, although all on the road. Fenway is run positive, but power negative and the Angels don’t have a lot of power. However, the strikeout rate has also cratered over the last month. The good news is that the SwStr% hasn’t fallen as far, but it’s still down.
John Lackey has a nice matchup in Miami, but has seen a steady dip in his strikeout rate as the season has gone along. His Statcast contact authority rates are more optimistic than Fangraphs.
Patrick Corbin doesn’t miss by much against the Phillies, but allows too much hard contact in a bad park. When’s that humidor supposed to start working by the way?
Alex Meyer does have some upside as you see in the K/SwStr chart, but still somehow only has an average K-BB% and is facing a low strikeout offense in a tough park.
Felix Hernandez returns from a shoulder injury. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since April. He did strike out 16 of 50 AAA batters in three starts, though with just a 40 GB%. I’m not even sure why we’ve used this much space for a pitcher returning from a shoulder issue to face Houston.
Seth Lugo has looked decent in his first two starts, though he’s missing fewer bats than average and has stranded 85.5% of his runners. San Francisco should be a great spot for him, but it’s not a high strikeout one and you’re going to need a few for close to $8K, while the Giants have been a better offense in June (108 wRC+).
Joe Musgrove has only walked a total of three over his last three starts, though only one of those starts can be considered good. He gets a park upgrade tonight, but faces a tough offense.
Adelberto Mejia
Jakob Junis walked 10 with just seven strikeouts over his first 10.1 innings. He’s struck out 12 with just one walk over his last 54 batters (12.1 innings), but with five HRs. His 41.3% 95+ mph EV is second highest on the board.
Mark Leiter has a -2.4 K-BB% in 19 major league innings in relief. MLB.com still hasn’t officially listed him either as of noon.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 18.4% | 11.7% | Road | 14.9% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 11.4% |
Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.5% | Home | 19.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 8.3% |
Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 26.0% | 14.9% | Road | 27.4% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 13.0% |
Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.6% | 7.2% | Home | 29.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% |
Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 28.0% | 8.1% | Home | 31.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.6% |
Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 34.6% | 8.4% | Home | 31.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 2.2% |
Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.0% | Home | 19.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | ||
J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.1% | 6.9% | Road | 19.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 1.9% |
Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 17.6% | 10.2% | Home | 3.6% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 1.9% |
Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.3% | 5.4% | Road | 20.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.8% |
Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.1% | Road | 21.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.0% |
Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.5% | 9.0% | Road | 17.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 23.0% | 6.6% |
Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 20.3% | 6.8% | Road | 15.6% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.1% |
John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.9% | Road | 23.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 11.4% |
Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 14.5% | 8.6% | Home | 15.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.1% | 9.0% | Road | 11.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 7.0% |
Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 14.5% | 16.9% | Road | 11.4% | 18.2% | L14 Days | ||
Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.1% | 4.8% | Home | 23.2% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 6.1% |
Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.2% | Road | 20.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 8.2% |
Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.9% | Home | 19.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 8.2% |
Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 12.0% | 7.6% | Home | 14.0% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 11.4% |
Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.5% | Home | 19.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.9% |
Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.0% | Home | 21.3% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 12.3% | 3.5% |
Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 17.6% | 7.9% | Road | 17.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 6.9% |
Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 6.4% | Home | 30.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 6.4% |
Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.4% | 9.2% | Home | 23.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.6% |
Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.9% | 5.6% | Home | 13.1% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 5.5% |
Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.5% | 10.5% | Road | 19.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 7.4% |
Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.9% | 8.4% | Road | 28.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 8.3% |
Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indians | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | LH | 16.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 14.5% | 12.0% |
Pirates | Road | 19.8% | 8.8% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.8% |
Red Sox | Home | 16.7% | 9.8% | RH | 18.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.5% |
Rockies | Road | 23.5% | 7.7% | LH | 23.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 4.9% |
Orioles | Road | 25.0% | 6.4% | RH | 23.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 28.9% | 5.5% |
Tigers | Road | 24.3% | 9.5% | RH | 22.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.5% |
Astros | Road | 18.4% | 8.8% | RH | 17.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
Royals | Home | 19.7% | 6.9% | LH | 19.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.6% |
Blue Jays | Road | 21.3% | 8.8% | RH | 20.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.8% | 9.1% |
Cardinals | Home | 20.8% | 9.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.5% |
White Sox | Home | 21.0% | 8.2% | RH | 22.7% | 6.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.3% |
Braves | Home | 19.1% | 7.4% | RH | 19.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.2% | 4.1% |
Mariners | Home | 20.3% | 9.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.1% |
Marlins | Home | 19.9% | 8.2% | RH | 20.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.7% |
Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 10.1% | RH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.5% |
Dodgers | Home | 22.6% | 10.1% | LH | 21.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 14.0% |
Diamondbacks | Home | 21.6% | 9.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.2% |
Rangers | Road | 26.3% | 7.8% | RH | 23.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.7% |
Padres | Home | 24.1% | 8.4% | RH | 25.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.8% |
Brewers | Road | 23.2% | 8.7% | RH | 24.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.5% |
Athletics | Road | 25.7% | 8.3% | RH | 25.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 28.1% | 10.5% |
Phillies | Road | 23.8% | 7.0% | LH | 20.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.9% | 9.1% |
Angels | Road | 21.5% | 9.5% | RH | 20.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 5.3% |
Giants | Home | 19.3% | 6.6% | RH | 19.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.0% |
Reds | Road | 20.3% | 7.6% | RH | 21.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.9% |
Twins | Road | 21.1% | 9.1% | RH | 22.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.2% |
Mets | Road | 20.7% | 9.1% | LH | 22.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.2% |
Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.6% | RH | 25.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.1% |
Yankees | Home | 22.7% | 11.1% | RH | 22.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 26.1% | 9.0% |
Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 35.6% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 2017 | 35.0% | 18.4% | 14.7% | Road | 36.2% | 15.0% | 21.3% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 18.2% | 21.9% |
Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 2017 | 30.3% | 12.5% | 10.2% | Home | 29.9% | 4.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 60.0% | 30.8% |
Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 34.4% | 11.0% | 18.0% | 2017 | 31.3% | 8.6% | 14.8% | Road | 37.7% | 10.7% | 24.7% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 0.0% | 11.5% |
Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2017 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | Home | 24.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 34.7% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 2017 | 38.4% | 10.0% | 22.4% | Home | 34.6% | 10.4% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | 15.1% |
Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 35.6% | 24.2% | 22.0% | 2017 | 35.6% | 24.2% | 22.0% | Home | 32.1% | 25.0% | 28.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 35.7% | 15.4% |
Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.9% | 15.3% | 11.7% | 2017 | 25.6% | 27.3% | 8.9% | Home | 30.6% | 14.9% | 15.8% | L14 Days | |||
J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 2017 | 29.5% | 21.6% | 14.3% | Road | 30.0% | 12.9% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 46.7% | 17.6% | 30.7% | 2017 | 46.7% | 17.6% | 30.7% | Home | 68.2% | 12.5% | 68.2% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 26.3% | 18.4% |
Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 2017 | 28.7% | 13.3% | 8.1% | Road | 31.9% | 18.8% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 2017 | 33.8% | 13.8% | 10.9% | Road | 33.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 20.0% | 2.8% |
Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 2017 | 30.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | Road | 32.1% | 12.7% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | -15.0% |
Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 33.5% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 2017 | 32.5% | 14.9% | 14.2% | Road | 35.9% | 17.8% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 53.3% | 18.2% | 33.3% |
John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.9% | 14.8% | 16.5% | 2017 | 37.8% | 22.0% | 24.0% | Road | 37.1% | 17.3% | 24.2% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 30.8% | 26.4% |
Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 2017 | 31.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | Home | 32.2% | 12.5% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 15.2% |
Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.0% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 2017 | 32.0% | 12.7% | 10.9% | Road | 35.4% | 14.3% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 16.7% | 2.2% |
Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.8% | 14.3% | -5.3% | 2017 | 22.8% | 14.3% | -5.3% | Road | 29.0% | 22.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | |||
Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.9% | 16.6% | 14.5% | 2017 | 35.0% | 25.0% | 16.9% | Home | 34.9% | 18.1% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 36.4% | 32.2% |
Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 2017 | 26.9% | 5.1% | 10.9% | Road | 26.4% | 9.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 0.0% | 24.4% |
Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.3% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 2017 | 28.9% | 14.8% | 13.8% | Home | 30.5% | 8.4% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 14.3% | 29.3% |
Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.8% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 2017 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | Home | 33.4% | 17.7% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 6.7% |
Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.1% | 16.6% | 20.5% | 2017 | 36.3% | 18.1% | 21.0% | Home | 40.8% | 16.7% | 27.8% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 8.3% | 23.5% |
Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.1% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 2017 | 43.1% | 12.7% | 26.7% | Home | 35.5% | 8.1% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 47.9% | 11.1% | 41.6% |
Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 35.8% | 10.7% | 18.6% | 2017 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 4.7% | Road | 32.4% | 5.4% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 13.3% | 4.7% |
Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 2017 | 28.0% | 11.5% | 7.5% | Home | 29.9% | 14.0% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 37.5% | 17.8% |
Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 33.4% | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2017 | 39.1% | 18.8% | 24.7% | Home | 34.7% | 18.0% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% |
Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.7% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 2017 | 30.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | Home | 29.0% | 2.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 12.5% | 11.6% |
Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.1% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 2017 | 33.8% | 20.9% | 17.1% | Road | 31.1% | 11.1% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 2017 | 32.4% | 14.6% | 15.2% | Road | 24.9% | 10.8% | 1.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indians | Home | 30.9% | 14.2% | 14.4% | LH | 32.6% | 12.7% | 15.4% | L7Days | 35.3% | 13.6% | 20.0% |
Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 11.9% | 9.2% | RH | 30.4% | 10.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 30.9% | 16.4% | 11.2% |
Red Sox | Home | 38.2% | 7.4% | 20.9% | RH | 36.1% | 10.2% | 18.8% | L7Days | 35.2% | 10.6% | 18.2% |
Rockies | Road | 29.7% | 12.6% | 9.9% | LH | 32.2% | 16.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 27.6% | 15.7% | 5.5% |
Orioles | Road | 33.9% | 13.7% | 14.7% | RH | 30.0% | 15.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 32.7% | 26.4% | 10.5% |
Tigers | Road | 35.5% | 13.0% | 18.6% | RH | 42.4% | 12.5% | 27.5% | L7Days | 36.8% | 14.5% | 20.6% |
Astros | Road | 33.4% | 15.2% | 16.3% | RH | 32.8% | 15.8% | 15.8% | L7Days | 40.6% | 20.3% | 27.2% |
Royals | Home | 31.8% | 9.4% | 12.9% | LH | 30.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | L7Days | 31.5% | 14.3% | 13.0% |
Blue Jays | Road | 32.8% | 15.7% | 13.7% | RH | 31.3% | 15.5% | 11.6% | L7Days | 37.2% | 12.5% | 21.0% |
Cardinals | Home | 30.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | RH | 31.1% | 14.0% | 12.1% | L7Days | 35.0% | 28.6% | 16.9% |
White Sox | Home | 29.2% | 12.5% | 8.5% | RH | 31.6% | 13.4% | 13.1% | L7Days | 34.8% | 18.9% | 21.3% |
Braves | Home | 29.8% | 11.8% | 11.2% | RH | 31.4% | 11.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 27.5% | 19.3% | 6.4% |
Mariners | Home | 29.5% | 12.0% | 9.9% | RH | 31.2% | 11.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 15.5% | 12.5% |
Marlins | Home | 32.0% | 16.2% | 10.7% | RH | 31.1% | 14.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 27.1% | 12.5% | 7.2% |
Cubs | Road | 29.0% | 14.0% | 8.2% | RH | 29.9% | 14.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 30.1% | 20.0% | 7.7% |
Dodgers | Home | 36.2% | 18.8% | 21.9% | LH | 33.6% | 15.9% | 18.9% | L7Days | 41.7% | 30.6% | 28.3% |
Diamondbacks | Home | 39.9% | 18.4% | 26.8% | RH | 36.6% | 16.5% | 19.3% | L7Days | 34.6% | 17.3% | 10.3% |
Rangers | Road | 30.9% | 14.6% | 10.0% | RH | 33.7% | 16.1% | 13.8% | L7Days | 44.6% | 21.5% | 29.0% |
Padres | Home | 28.4% | 12.9% | 6.1% | RH | 28.9% | 14.6% | 6.1% | L7Days | 25.7% | 16.9% | -2.7% |
Brewers | Road | 30.4% | 17.2% | 11.1% | RH | 33.5% | 19.3% | 14.1% | L7Days | 31.4% | 27.7% | 11.6% |
Athletics | Road | 35.8% | 10.7% | 17.7% | RH | 34.2% | 14.1% | 17.9% | L7Days | 27.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% |
Phillies | Road | 28.7% | 10.2% | 7.3% | LH | 29.4% | 14.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 34.6% | 10.4% | 13.8% |
Angels | Road | 32.9% | 11.5% | 13.6% | RH | 30.9% | 13.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 32.1% | 16.4% | 15.4% |
Giants | Home | 24.7% | 6.4% | 3.1% | RH | 28.1% | 9.6% | 5.8% | L7Days | 29.9% | 14.7% | 6.4% |
Reds | Road | 29.4% | 14.2% | 10.0% | RH | 29.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 33.1% | 12.7% | 18.2% |
Twins | Road | 32.0% | 13.4% | 14.9% | RH | 33.8% | 13.9% | 17.8% | L7Days | 36.1% | 9.6% | 16.6% |
Mets | Road | 37.3% | 16.9% | 19.9% | LH | 34.7% | 11.8% | 13.2% | L7Days | 28.9% | 15.7% | 10.2% |
Rays | Home | 37.5% | 16.1% | 19.8% | RH | 36.7% | 19.1% | 19.9% | L7Days | 45.0% | 20.0% | 28.2% |
Yankees | Home | 31.6% | 20.9% | 10.4% | RH | 32.1% | 18.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 17.3% | 4.9% |
Nationals | Home | 32.3% | 15.5% | 15.5% | RH | 31.5% | 14.7% | 13.9% | L7Days | 35.7% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.10 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 2.05 |
Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.6% | 7.8% | 2.38 | 17.8% | 6.5% | 2.74 |
Alex Meyer | ANA | 27.1% | 11.3% | 2.40 | 28.1% | 15.3% | 1.84 |
Alex Wood | LOS | 29.8% | 12.1% | 2.46 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 2.45 |
Chris Archer | TAM | 30.1% | 13.2% | 2.28 | 32.9% | 14.1% | 2.33 |
Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 34.6% | 14.2% | 2.44 | 34.6% | 14.2% | 2.44 |
Felix Hernandez | SEA | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.14 | |||
J.A. Happ | TOR | 27.0% | 10.9% | 2.48 | 25.5% | 11.6% | 2.20 |
Jakob Junis | KAN | 17.6% | 9.7% | 1.81 | 16.9% | 11.2% | 1.51 |
Jameson Taillon | PIT | 20.2% | 7.9% | 2.56 | 20.5% | 5.6% | 3.66 |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | 20.1% | 9.8% | 2.05 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 2.10 |
Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 24.0% | 10.5% | 2.29 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 2.17 |
Joe Musgrove | HOU | 19.2% | 10.5% | 1.83 | 22.7% | 11.6% | 1.96 |
John Lackey | CHC | 21.8% | 10.4% | 2.10 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.94 |
Jose Urena | MIA | 14.9% | 8.5% | 1.75 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 1.75 |
Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.10 | 13.4% | 7.8% | 1.72 |
Mark Leiter | PHI | 14.5% | 5.4% | 2.69 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 2.14 |
Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 22.2% | 13.5% | 1.64 | 29.8% | 15.0% | 1.99 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.84 | 11.8% | 8.0% | 1.48 |
Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.19 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 2.64 |
Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.28 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.29 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.10 |
Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.74 |
Seth Lugo | NYM | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.24 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.24 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 28.1% | 12.2% | 2.30 | 35.7% | 14.3% | 2.50 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | 27.6% | 8.8% | 3.14 | 27.9% | 8.4% | 3.32 |
Ty Blach | SFO | 11.1% | 6.7% | 1.66 | 14.6% | 8.3% | 1.76 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 18.8% | 7.6% | 2.47 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.43 |
Yu Darvish | TEX | 25.8% | 11.1% | 2.32 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 2.22 |
Luis Castillo | CIN |
Masahiro Tanaka has seen a rise in strikeouts and even more swinging strikes with an increase of splitters and sliders.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 5.53 | 5.13 | -0.4 | 5.3 | -0.23 | 6.01 | 0.48 | 5.39 | -0.14 | 5.92 | 4.82 | -1.1 | 4.91 | -1.01 | 5.51 | -0.41 |
Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.75 | 4.63 | -1.12 | 4.41 | -1.34 | 4.26 | -1.49 | 6.90 | 1.15 | 7.71 | 4.61 | -3.1 | 4.51 | -3.2 | 5.27 | -2.44 |
Alex Meyer | ANA | 3.52 | 4.61 | 1.09 | 4.26 | 0.74 | 3.74 | 0.22 | 3.93 | 0.41 | 1.19 | 4.09 | 2.9 | 3.58 | 2.39 | 3.04 | 1.85 |
Alex Wood | LOS | 1.9 | 2.68 | 0.78 | 2.56 | 0.66 | 2.14 | 0.24 | 2.45 | 0.55 | 1.93 | 2.44 | 0.51 | 2.66 | 0.73 | 2.49 | 0.56 |
Chris Archer | TAM | 3.75 | 3.39 | -0.36 | 3.33 | -0.42 | 2.88 | -0.87 | 2.03 | -1.72 | 3.74 | 2.8 | -0.94 | 2.61 | -1.13 | 2.33 | -1.41 |
Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 7.5 | 3.16 | -4.34 | 3.89 | -3.61 | 5.76 | -1.74 | 4.05 | -3.45 | 7.5 | 3.16 | -4.34 | 3.89 | -3.61 | 5.76 | -1.74 |
Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.73 | 3.78 | -0.95 | 3.53 | -1.2 | 4.97 | 0.24 | 3.78 | -0.95 | |||||||
J.A. Happ | TOR | 4.26 | 3.28 | -0.98 | 3.12 | -1.14 | 4.1 | -0.16 | 3.73 | -0.53 | 4.09 | 3.74 | -0.35 | 3.54 | -0.55 | 4.27 | 0.18 |
Jakob Junis | KAN | 5.56 | 5.23 | -0.33 | 6 | 0.44 | 6.75 | 1.19 | 6.03 | 0.47 | 6.75 | 4.78 | -1.97 | 5.74 | -1.01 | 7.69 | 0.94 |
Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.38 | 4.2 | 0.82 | 3.79 | 0.41 | 3.75 | 0.37 | 4.19 | 0.81 | 3.6 | 3.93 | 0.33 | 3.31 | -0.29 | 2.23 | -1.37 |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.4 | 4.9 | -0.5 | 5.34 | -0.06 | 5.34 | -0.06 | 7.16 | 1.76 | 5.02 | 5.16 | 0.14 | 5.79 | 0.77 | 6.2 | 1.18 |
Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.28 | 3.69 | 0.41 | 3.53 | 0.25 | 3.12 | -0.16 | 3.55 | 0.27 | 2.66 | 2.91 | 0.25 | 2.72 | 0.06 | 2.34 | -0.32 |
Joe Musgrove | HOU | 5.09 | 4.59 | -0.5 | 4.58 | -0.51 | 4.73 | -0.36 | 7.20 | 2.11 | 3.63 | 4.04 | 0.41 | 4.2 | 0.57 | 3.42 | -0.21 |
John Lackey | CHC | 4.98 | 4.25 | -0.73 | 4.36 | -0.62 | 5.54 | 0.56 | 6.32 | 1.34 | 5.28 | 4.9 | -0.38 | 4.96 | -0.32 | 6.44 | 1.16 |
Jose Urena | MIA | 3.64 | 5.23 | 1.59 | 5.58 | 1.94 | 5.17 | 1.53 | 5.64 | 2.00 | 5.46 | 5.25 | -0.21 | 5.52 | 0.06 | 6 | 0.54 |
Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.42 | 4.87 | 1.45 | 4.73 | 1.31 | 4.61 | 1.19 | 5.23 | 1.81 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 4.69 | 1.39 | 4.86 | 1.56 |
Mark Leiter | PHI | 4.74 | 5.76 | 1.02 | 5.4 | 0.66 | 5.45 | 0.71 | 4.33 | -0.41 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 4.4 | -0.1 | 5.13 | 0.63 |
Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 6.34 | 4.01 | -2.33 | 4.06 | -2.28 | 5.65 | -0.69 | 5.14 | -1.20 | 5.97 | 3.14 | -2.83 | 3.12 | -2.85 | 4.8 | -1.17 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.45 | 4.33 | 0.88 | 4.15 | 0.7 | 3.11 | -0.34 | 2.89 | -0.56 | 5.54 | 4.93 | -0.61 | 4.62 | -0.92 | 2.82 | -2.72 |
Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.26 | 4.65 | 0.39 | 4.56 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 0.44 | 6.23 | 1.97 | 4.94 | 4.76 | -0.18 | 4.75 | -0.19 | 4.89 | -0.05 |
Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 3.56 | 5.17 | 1.61 | 5.09 | 1.53 | 4.39 | 0.83 | 3.76 | 0.20 | 2.08 | 4.42 | 2.34 | 4.37 | 2.29 | 3.28 | 1.2 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | 5.19 | 4.33 | -0.86 | 4.25 | -0.94 | 4.84 | -0.35 | 6.48 | 1.29 | 6.75 | 4.21 | -2.54 | 4.25 | -2.5 | 5.57 | -1.18 |
Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.05 | 4.16 | -0.89 | 4.36 | -0.69 | 4.16 | -0.89 | 5.42 | 0.37 | 6.27 | 4.75 | -1.52 | 4.99 | -1.28 | 4.34 | -1.93 |
Seth Lugo | NYM | 2.63 | 4.56 | 1.93 | 4.59 | 1.96 | 4.52 | 1.89 | 5.62 | 2.99 | 2.63 | 4.57 | 1.94 | 4.59 | 1.96 | 4.52 | 1.89 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.28 | 3.44 | 0.16 | 3.28 | 0 | 3.02 | -0.26 | 2.39 | -0.89 | 3.26 | 2.7 | -0.56 | 2.48 | -0.78 | 3.2 | -0.06 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.54 | 3.78 | -1.76 | 3.53 | -2.01 | 4.08 | -1.46 | 3.92 | -1.62 | 3.9 | 3.78 | -0.12 | 3.43 | -0.47 | 3.1 | -0.8 |
Ty Blach | SFO | 4.23 | 5.08 | 0.85 | 4.78 | 0.55 | 4.07 | -0.16 | 5.90 | 1.67 | 4.37 | 4.51 | 0.14 | 4.29 | -0.08 | 3.56 | -0.81 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.25 | 4.88 | -1.37 | 4.83 | -1.42 | 5.8 | -0.45 | 6.65 | 0.40 | 4.35 | 3.45 | -0.9 | 3.56 | -0.79 | 3.71 | -0.64 |
Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.35 | 4.07 | 0.72 | 4.03 | 0.68 | 4.13 | 0.78 | 2.69 | -0.66 | 4.45 | 3.96 | -0.49 | 4.49 | 0.04 | 4.61 | 0.16 |
Luis Castillo | CIN |
Alex Wood has an unsustainably low 6.9 HR/FB, but allows so few fly balls that he may not even see that correction this year.
J.A. Happ has an 80.5 LOB%, which should mean he’s running an ERA below his estimators, but a 21.6 HR/FB, double his career rate despite a similar rate of hard contact has pushed things too far in the other direction.
Masahiro Tanaka has a .324 BABIP, nearly 50 points above his career rate with a career low 68.5 LOB% and 25.0 HR/FB that’s 10 points above his career average. A lot of it’s his own fault, but more consistently locating better could solve a lot of these problems as long as they’re not due to injury.
Michael Fulmer has a 5.1 HR/FB and hasn’t allowed one in eight starts. That will end at some point, but maybe not in San Diego.
Yu Darvish has a .247 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%, while allowing a few more HRs than he normally does as well. His estimators are up nearly a run over his career rates. His 16.4 K-BB% is still above average, but four points below his elite career level.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.291 | 0.298 | 0.007 | 42.3% | 0.179 | 8.2% | 84.9% | 88.5 | 9.80% | 6.60% | 123 |
Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.296 | 0.358 | 0.062 | 48.3% | 0.239 | 10.9% | 90.6% | 85.7 | 5.60% | 4.00% | 234 |
Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.290 | 0.286 | -0.004 | 47.4% | 0.219 | 14.3% | 86.5% | 86.7 | 6.10% | 3.40% | 115 |
Alex Wood | LOS | 0.281 | 0.268 | -0.013 | 66.9% | 0.139 | 13.8% | 86.0% | 85.3 | 2.60% | 1.70% | 151 |
Chris Archer | TAM | 0.295 | 0.315 | 0.02 | 42.7% | 0.21 | 11.1% | 81.8% | 89 | 6.00% | 3.70% | 250 |
Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.298 | 0.294 | -0.004 | 32.2% | 0.119 | 0.0% | 80.3% | 88.9 | 18.60% | 10.30% | 59 |
Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.284 | 0.388 | 0.104 | 50.0% | 0.25 | 4.5% | 91.9% | 86.2 | 10.00% | 7.60% | 90 |
J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.302 | 0.298 | -0.004 | 46.8% | 0.198 | 2.7% | 84.8% | 87.7 | 8.90% | 6.10% | 112 |
Jakob Junis | KAN | 0.301 | 0.319 | 0.018 | 34.2% | 0.192 | 11.8% | 86.6% | 88.8 | 8.00% | 5.60% | 75 |
Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.306 | 0.326 | 0.02 | 53.0% | 0.242 | 10.0% | 90.4% | 85.5 | 5.10% | 3.60% | 136 |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.295 | 0.279 | -0.016 | 36.4% | 0.154 | 13.8% | 82.8% | 85.8 | 5.00% | 3.40% | 201 |
Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.301 | 0.339 | 0.038 | 49.6% | 0.21 | 4.3% | 85.3% | 85 | 3.70% | 2.50% | 243 |
Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.290 | 0.316 | 0.026 | 40.9% | 0.207 | 9.5% | 87.2% | 86.4 | 5.60% | 4.10% | 197 |
John Lackey | CHC | 0.287 | 0.279 | -0.008 | 44.8% | 0.172 | 8.8% | 85.7% | 86.8 | 6.90% | 4.80% | 246 |
Jose Urena | MIA | 0.289 | 0.244 | -0.045 | 40.9% | 0.187 | 12.5% | 89.5% | 85.7 | 8.90% | 6.50% | 202 |
Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.292 | 0.291 | -0.001 | 58.7% | 0.17 | 11.1% | 91.3% | 85.7 | 4.10% | 3.10% | 266 |
Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.304 | 0.164 | -0.14 | 58.9% | 0.161 | 0.0% | 90.1% | 82.8 | 3.50% | 2.40% | 57 |
Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.286 | 0.324 | 0.038 | 46.7% | 0.183 | 13.1% | 86.2% | 89.4 | 11.10% | 7.90% | 243 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.311 | 0.295 | -0.016 | 49.2% | 0.211 | 11.4% | 87.7% | 85.9 | 4.50% | 3.40% | 268 |
Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.283 | 0.308 | 0.025 | 40.3% | 0.247 | 7.4% | 86.6% | 87.1 | 6.70% | 4.90% | 239 |
Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.284 | 0.256 | -0.028 | 47.7% | 0.193 | 8.6% | 89.0% | 87.1 | 5.10% | 3.80% | 177 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.291 | 0.335 | 0.044 | 49.6% | 0.185 | 9.6% | 86.6% | 89.5 | 8.40% | 6.20% | 263 |
Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.313 | 0.366 | 0.053 | 37.2% | 0.22 | 8.7% | 86.4% | 88.7 | 9.00% | 6.70% | 311 |
Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.317 | 0.275 | -0.042 | 39.0% | 0.244 | 6.7% | 91.8% | 85.1 | 7.10% | 5.20% | 42 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.297 | 0.278 | -0.019 | 46.0% | 0.209 | 9.0% | 84.4% | 88 | 8.40% | 5.40% | 239 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.308 | 0.342 | 0.034 | 48.0% | 0.197 | 10.9% | 87.5% | 90.1 | 10.40% | 6.50% | 202 |
Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.277 | -0.04 | 48.8% | 0.195 | 8.6% | 89.6% | 86.1 | 4.20% | 3.50% | 263 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.315 | 0.277 | -0.038 | 45.4% | 0.201 | 10.4% | 88.6% | 88.2 | 7.60% | 5.30% | 198 |
Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.287 | 0.247 | -0.04 | 40.5% | 0.227 | 5.6% | 85.3% | 86.2 | 7.00% | 4.40% | 244 |
Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.284 |
Jimmy Nelson doesn’t generate a lot of popups, but has on otherwise standard BABIP profile and hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact. It hasn’t much affected his ERA because his 10.0 HR/FB is a bit low in this new era.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood (1t) still costs less than $10K because he only throws 90 pitches per game. He got through eight innings last time out with 89. His per pitch numbers are on par with that of a much more expensive arm. Even with limitations, he’s a $10K arm, as I’d pay much more with normal workload expectations.
Value Tier Two
Chris Archer (1t) is up to $12.5K on DraftKIngs and not the best pitch for pitch arm on the board in my estimation. He may be a top five arm in the American League though and is in a high strikeout spot against Baltimore.
Stephen Strasburg (3) took a step back in his last start, but still wasn’t bad. He’s been a strikeout dominating, weak contact generating monster over the last month or so, but we’re going to want more than six innings at this price and he hasn’t done that in three starts, which separates him a bit from the two above him value wise.
Value Tier Three
Masahiro Tanaka may give up three bombs, but if they only amount to three to five runs while he strikes out 10 or more, that’s well worth less than $7K on DraftKings, though a quality start may be more necessary for a higher FanDuel price.
J.A. Happ has been missing more bats and is in a good spot at a reasonable cost. He seems to have settled in well after struggling to find his way immediately after returning from the DL.
Luis Perdomo replaces Dinelson Lamet. He could be even more difficult for Detroit as he keeps the ball on the ground against RHBs and misses bats at a league average rate. That should play in an SP2 role on DraftKings at a low cost.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Yu Darvish hasn’t struck out more than 10 this season and hasn’t even done that since April. Theoretically, he could pop off 12 or so and give you great value for less than $10K, but this is one of the most dangerous spots on the board.
Michael Fulmer has struggled through three June starts and may have a shoulder issue. That usually means an automatic fade and he started out that way too until seeing the matchup. You may not even need a healthy throwing shoulder to put the Padres in their place. However, like in many other spots today, his FanDuel cost may be too aggressive. There’s no way he and Archer are worth the same cost.
Jimmy Nelson hasn’t exactly been consistent and is not in a high strikeout spot tonight, but we have to at least consider someone with three starts of at least seven innings and 10 Ks in his last five outings.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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