Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, September 2nd
Even without a Kershaw, Fernandez or Scherzer in sight, tonight still appears to be one of the strongest pitching slates of the season both overall and in point per dollar potential of the season. At least that’s the way it looks on paper. These things can end up very differently once the games are actually played as we well know. That doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a shortage of pitchers you’ll want to attack either though. It’s the middle of the board that seems dry tonight.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 3.1 | 4.07 | 4.73 | 0.57 | 0.87 | 4.75 | 4.9 | NYM | 100 | 93 | 132 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 2.4 | 4.57 | 5.34 | 0.66 | 1.07 | 4.35 | 4.29 | HOU | 104 | 100 | 99 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -1.2 | 3.82 | 6.62 | 1.93 | 0.97 | TOR | 96 | 104 | 153 | ||
| Alex Reyes | STL | -6.6 | 3.81 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.02 | 2.54 | 4.91 | CIN | 94 | 89 | 88 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 4.5 | 4.19 | 5.74 | 1.44 | 1.03 | 4.71 | 4.4 | CLE | 123 | 104 | 121 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -8.5 | 3.33 | 4.84 | 1.9 | 0.95 | 3.34 | 2.56 | BOS | 104 | 115 | 139 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | -5.8 | 4.25 | 5.88 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 4.26 | 5.2 | KAN | 95 | 83 | 90 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.2 | 3.97 | 6.07 | 1.26 | 1.02 | 3.56 | 3.32 | STL | 107 | 109 | 60 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | -4.1 | 4.85 | 5.05 | 0.88 | 0.9 | 4 | 5.14 | ANA | 97 | 104 | 125 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 3.7 | 4.57 | 4.92 | 1.24 | 0.9 | 4.72 | 5.05 | SEA | 113 | 100 | 63 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 6.4 | 2.91 | 6.25 | 1.71 | 1.03 | 3.23 | 2.11 | FLA | 99 | 94 | 85 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 2.3 | 4.11 | 5.82 | 1.42 | 1.03 | 4.09 | 3.44 | MIN | 93 | 102 | 96 |
| Chad Green | NYY | 0.5 | 3.49 | 4.89 | 1.14 | 1.04 | 3.49 | 5.11 | BAL | 108 | 110 | 93 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -6.4 | 3.82 | 6. | 3.62 | 0.9 | 4.12 | 3.96 | LOS | 102 | 75 | 75 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 8 | 4.06 | 5.57 | 0.9 | 1.04 | 4.57 | 5.62 | DET | 101 | 100 | 109 |
| David Price | BOS | 4 | 3.36 | 6.8 | 1.21 | 0.95 | 3.56 | 3.59 | OAK | 86 | 90 | 50 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 8.3 | 4.67 | 6.02 | 1.31 | 1.07 | 4.45 | 4.8 | TEX | 104 | 95 | 116 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -4.8 | 4.12 | 5.22 | 0.77 | 1.04 | 4.41 | 5.56 | NYY | 84 | 94 | 127 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -1 | 3.49 | 5.92 | 2.18 | 0.95 | 3.3 | 3.54 | MIL | 84 | 86 | 70 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -1.4 | 4.12 | 5.54 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 3.77 | 4.06 | ATL | 83 | 85 | 113 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | -0.3 | 5.24 | 5.13 | 1.23 | 1.02 | 5.03 | 4.69 | PHI | 71 | 82 | 18 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -1.4 | 4.38 | 5.58 | 1.69 | 1.37 | 4.29 | 2.88 | ARI | 92 | 110 | 74 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 3 | 3.8 | 4.76 | 1.56 | 0.9 | 3.16 | 2.7 | SDG | 80 | 108 | 74 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -8.7 | 4.29 | 6.3 | 1.33 | 0.95 | 4.01 | PIT | 109 | 94 | 89 | |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -4.9 | 4.37 | 6. | 1.88 | 1.03 | 3.9 | 6.56 | CHW | 89 | 88 | 116 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.1 | 3.31 | 6.5 | 2.98 | 0.97 | 3.34 | 2.23 | TAM | 96 | 100 | 121 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -1.6 | 2.93 | 6.2 | 1.62 | 0.87 | 2.56 | 3.44 | WAS | 100 | 97 | 78 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -9.5 | 3.74 | 5.56 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 3.57 | 2.48 | COL | 100 | 90 | 127 |
Alex Reyes both walked and struck out four in his first major league start as a last minute replacement for Mike Leake. Pitching on three days rest, he was allowed to throw 89 pitches, which bodes well for our purposes tonight. He’s struck out 17 of 55 major league hitters so far and still averaged over 96 mph on his fastball in that start, though he’s now walked 14.6% of batters and has had a double digit walk rate throughout the minor leagues. He’s also allowed hard contact on just 20% of batted balls this year. We know he’s a highly rated prospect, blowing through the minors despite the lack of control because he struck out 30% of the batters he faced at almost every level. He’ll face a below average Cincinnati offense that will strike out a bit, but also has a bit of power at home.
Andrew Triggs has struck out 20 of 80 batters with just a single walk and HR over four starts since being moved into the rotation, allowing seven runs in 21.2 innings with just 22.4% hard contact, reaching the six inning mark with just under 90 pitches in each of his last two. Two of his starts have been in tough environments in St Louis and Texas. Though he does face the top park neutral offense in baseball, he does so in a favorable home environment that could help lessen the blow.
Carlos Carrasco lasted just four innings in his last start, the first time in five starts he had failed to go at least 6.2 innings, but he still managed to strike out at least eight batters for the fifth straight start with a 13.2 SwStr% over that span. A 37.2 Hard% has kept his ERA at 3.58 during this period, but when you have a K-BB above 30%, there’s not much to worry about. He faces the Marlins tonight, who have just a 10.0 HR/FB vs RHP and even less power than that currently in their lineup.
Chad Green has great stuff. He’s struck out 26.4% of batters on an 12.4 SwStr%. He also makes a lot of mistakes, but they come in bunches. He’s allowed 11 HRs in seven starts, but seven of them have come in two starts with an overall hard hit rate of 36.6% and a 1.14 GB/FB, which is a combination which may not play incredibly well in several AL East parks. He allowed three of those HRs to Baltimore in his last start and now travels to meet them on their home turf, which isn’t any better. They have a 17.5 HR/FB at home and 17.4 HR/FB vs RHP.
Clayton Richard has struck out just 11 of 70 batters, walking seven in three starts, but has allowed just four runs (two earned) over 18 innings with a 63.5 GB% and -5.8 Hard-Soft%. So while the peripherals are lacking and he’s stranding over 90% of his runners, he’s generating some great contact. We don’t expect this to last, but he’s in a nice spot tonight and we’re not asking him to do much. The Dodgers are only better than the Braves and Phillies vs LHP and at home, in a negative run environment they appear one of the top matchups on the board with just 9.9 HR/FB vs southpaws.
David Price struck out just 19 over his first five starts after the All-Star break, but now at least seven in three of four starts since (24.8 K%). He’s still giving up lots of hard contact, now eight most in baseball (35.6%), but his 19.0 K-BB% is also 13th. He gets a park upgrade in Oakland tonight, facing an offense that started strong, but has floundered against LHP. They don’t strike out a lot, but have just a 9.4 HR/FB at home and 20.0 Hard% over the last week.
Jameson Taillon got spanked in Milwaukee, lasting just three innings, which was unexpected, but it happens. It was the first time in nine starts that he failed to go at least six innings and he still has a strong 16.6 K-BB% on the season with a 53.7 GB% that would be seventh best in baseball with enough innings. He transitions back home, to a much more favorable park, especially against RH power, to face the same offense, who drop to a 12.9 HR/FB on the road with a strikeout rate above 25% both away from home and vs RHP.
Jeremy Hellickson was pounded by the Mets in his last start, but had previously been pitching well and brings a 15.0 K-BB% into this matchup with the Braves, who are a bit of an improved offense recently, just fourth worst on the road and vs RHP now, but still with very little power (9.1 HR/FB vs RHP).
Julio Urias has gone a bit longer between starts recently, but has gotten in six innings and over 90 pitches in each of his last two starts. He’s had some control issues, but has walked more than two in just one of his last seven outings (five starts) and has a well above average strikeout rate in 63 major league innings. He’s in a nice spot against one of the worst road offenses in baseball (18.7 K-BB%) and a team that has been declining against LHP (24.8 K%) since trading away a few of their more potent RHBs and replacing them with LHBs.
Marcus Stroman is a different pitcher since the All-Star break. He’s still going deep into games, but his already league leading ground ball rate is now the only one in baseball over 60% (60.9%) and a 27.1 K% has brought his season rate up to league average. I’d almost call him dominant. He’s facing an average offense with a park upgrade. The Rays strike out 25.1% at home and 23.7% vs RHP.
Noah Syndergaard has looked stronger than he has in a while over his last three starts (21 Ks – 77 BF) with 60% of his contact on the ground and only 16% of it marked as hard. He’s allowed just a single run in 15 innings over his last two starts. He’s facing a nearly neutral offense, but in one of the most negative run environments in baseball at home.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Anthony DeSclafani (.303 – 79.8% – 10.2) is a perfectly fine pitcher having a perfectly fine season, but a high strand rate leaves him a bit over-priced in a not so favorable spot against the Cardinals.
Dylan Bundy (.305 – 80.4% – 11.7) has struck out four or fewer in three of his last four starts and gone fewer than five innings in two of his last three. He did strike out six Yankees in his last start, but also surrendered five runs with three walks in four innings. The offense has picked up for them since the youth movement. They have just a 16.8 K% over the last week. Just $4.7K on DraftKings, he’s still a reasonable choice, but his cost increases by 50% moving to FanDuel.
A.J. Griffin (.275 – 79.5% – 14.4) just broke a streak of 11 straight starts with a HR (17 of his overall 19 allowed this season), most of them (seven) on the road. He has competed six innings in just two of his last 13 starts and faces a dangerous offense with quite a bit of power at home tonight.
Danny Duffy (.278 – 82.8% – 10.5) has struck out more than six in just one his last eight starts, including a total of 11 over his last three. His strikeout rate has cratered and his innings have declined in three straight starts. This appears to be a tiring pitcher, just six innings away from a new career high. This will be his fourth time seeing a predominantly RH Detroit lineup in less than three months.
Doug Fister (.277 – 77 % – 10.1) has massive splits this year with LHBs (.369 wOBA) over 100 points higher with a nearly 20 point difference in GB rate (36.2%) and almost a 15 point higher hard hit rate (36.6%). Most of the Texas bats are close to average, but they can put quite a few in that lineup with some power in a dangerous park.
Junior Guerra (.242 _ – 77.1% – _8.6) has faced just 12 AAA batters over the last month. He’s likely to be on a pitch count after already being over-priced.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Robbie Ray nearly makes our list and probably would on almost any other day even with all the hard contact and a trip to Colorado tonight. That’s how far he has come. His strikeout rate is now fifth highest in baseball and the Rockies need a lot of help from Coors (which they often get) against LHP. This is tempting, but probably not necessary. I’m curious what ownership rates will be because considering pitchers in Coors has become more fashionable this season. If I were sure it were going to be very low at a low price, I still might consider taking the chance here.
Carlos Rodon has pitched at least 5.2 innings in 19 of his 22 starts. He’s struck out between six and eight in 14 of those starts, but never more than eight and fewer than six in three of his last four. He’s been a perfectly consistent, slightly above average pitcher in a neutral spot tonight and is priced as such between $8K and $9K. There’s a decent floor there, but a ceiling not much higher.
Anibal Sanchez has struck out just four of his last 51 batters and has been incredibly inconsistent over the last month and a half, sometimes reminding us why Detroit signed him to a large contract, but sometimes reminding us why he was banished to the bullpen earlier this year as well. He’s in a decent spot in Kansas City and could blow the roof off his price tag against an offense that doesn’t hit RHP, but probably frequently torches your entire lineup here as well.
Jorge de la Rosa faces a team that beats up on LHP at Coors, but has struck out 14 of his last 51 batters.
Andrew Cashner has allowed just a single run in three of his five Marlin starts, but has terrible peripherals (4.2 K-BB%) with decreased velocity and travels to face one of the top home offenses in baseball.
A.J. Cole pitched well enough in his first start (8 Ks – 28 BF) in Baltimore, but not as well (4 Ks – 3 BBs – 25 BF) at home against the Rockies the last time out. Go figure. He’s allowed hard contact on fewer than 30% of batted balls, but three HRs due to an enormous 65.7% fly ball rate. He’s struck out batters at an average and then descending rate at every level since AA in 2014, finally moving back up to average again (20.5%) at AAA this season, but allowed 16 HRs in 124.2 innings. That many fly balls against this Mets offense without an above average strikeout rate is likely to be a problem.
Joel de la Cruz has the top matchup on the board by a fair margin, otherwise he and his 4.7 K-BB% would be even lower on this list.
Alex Cobb has not thrown a major league pitch in nearly two years and has struggled greatly in eight minor league rehab starts, striking out just 15 of 103 batters with eight walks.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.7% | 6.2% | Road | 18.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.1% | Home | 20.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 2.1% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.0% | 6.1% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Alex Reyes | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 14.6% | Road | 36.4% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 17.1% |
| Andrew Cashner | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.0% | Road | 16.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 23.2% | 5.6% | Home | 23.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 2.3% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.8% | Road | 19.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.3% | Home | 20.5% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.3% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 17.5% | 8.7% | Home | 21.6% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 9.8% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Angels | L2 Years | 15.9% | 8.3% | Road | 18.5% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 28.3% | 5.8% | Home | 24.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 2.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.6% | 9.6% | Road | 21.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 2.8% |
| Chad Green | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.3% | 7.0% | Road | 28.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 6.4% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.0% | 6.9% | Road | 12.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 7.8% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.3% | Home | 18.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 24.9% | 5.2% | Road | 23.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 7.7% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 14.8% | 6.7% | Road | 17.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.0% | 8.0% | Home | 22.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 14.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.5% | 3.9% | Home | 19.2% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 6.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.7% | 6.5% | Home | 21.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Joel De La Cruz | Braves | L2 Years | 12.2% | 7.5% | Road | 14.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 4.3% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.6% | 10.1% | Home | 21.4% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 3.9% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 9.1% | Home | 27.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 4.4% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.5% | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.6% | 8.1% | Home | 17.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 14.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.0% | 5.3% | Road | 21.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 3.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.5% | 5.3% | Home | 29.4% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.2% | 8.7% | Road | 26.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 10.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 21.3% | 9.1% | RH | 21.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.6% |
| Astros | Road | 22.2% | 8.9% | RH | 23.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.4% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.7% | 9.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.9% | 9.7% |
| Reds | Home | 22.0% | 8.2% | RH | 21.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 4.4% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 9.4% | RH | 20.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.1% | 8.5% | RH | 18.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.3% |
| Royals | Home | 18.8% | 6.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.3% | 8.5% | RH | 21.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 29.4% | 6.1% |
| Angels | Road | 16.5% | 7.6% | LH | 17.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 4.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.5% | 8.8% | LH | 21.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 6.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | RH | 18.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 9.0% |
| Twins | Home | 20.1% | 7.7% | LH | 23.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 26.0% | 8.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.3% | 8.1% | RH | 21.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.1% | 8.3% | LH | 21.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 7.7% | LH | 20.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 18.1% | 6.3% | LH | 18.9% | 6.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 7.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.4% | 8.0% | RH | 20.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.7% | 6.7% | RH | 19.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.2% | 10.1% | RH | 25.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 33.6% | 9.5% |
| Braves | Road | 19.9% | 7.9% | RH | 19.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 14.1% | 12.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.5% | 7.1% | RH | 22.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 27.2% | 6.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 22.1% | 7.8% | LH | 23.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.7% |
| Padres | Road | 25.7% | 7.0% | LH | 24.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 26.9% | 6.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 20.2% | 8.9% | RH | 20.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 7.1% | RH | 20.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Home | 25.1% | 8.0% | RH | 23.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.3% | 8.7% | RH | 19.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.7% | 9.2% | LH | 22.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 2016 | 28.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% | Road | 28.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% |
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 37.7% | 14.4% | 18.3% | 2016 | 37.7% | 14.4% | 18.3% | Home | 38.4% | 15.4% | 22.4% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 10.0% | 14.7% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 29.0% | 7.1% | 19.0% | 2016 | Home | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Alex Reyes | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.0% | 0.0% | -6.7% | 2016 | 20.0% | 0.0% | -6.7% | Road | 18.2% | 0.0% | -9.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -5.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.9% | 15.4% | 2016 | 35.8% | 13.8% | 22.5% | Road | 29.9% | 13.6% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 0.0% | 29.4% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.0% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 2016 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 8.0% | Home | 28.2% | 5.3% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.9% | 15.4% | 10.1% | 2016 | 30.9% | 14.9% | 11.8% | Road | 29.9% | 19.5% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 11.8% | 4.5% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2016 | 29.5% | 10.2% | 12.5% | Home | 32.0% | 12.6% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 6.7% | 13.9% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 40.8% | 11.8% | 26.3% | 2016 | 40.8% | 11.8% | 26.3% | Home | 44.7% | 18.8% | 36.8% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 16.7% | 32.2% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Angels | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 2016 | 33.5% | 20.0% | 17.3% | Road | 34.1% | 15.2% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 14.3% | 30.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 29.3% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 2016 | 34.9% | 16.8% | 18.4% | Home | 35.7% | 20.3% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 12.1% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 2016 | 28.0% | 13.5% | 12.6% | Road | 29.1% | 11.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Chad Green | Yankees | L2 Years | 36.6% | 25.0% | 21.1% | 2016 | 36.6% | 25.0% | 21.1% | Road | 47.0% | 25.9% | 30.3% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 14.3% | 23.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 24.3% | 11.1% | 0.3% | 2016 | 23.2% | 8.7% | -5.4% | Road | 19.7% | 14.3% | -6.2% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | -10.2% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 2016 | 34.6% | 10.5% | 15.4% | Home | 33.6% | 8.7% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 16.7% | 13.6% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2016 | 35.6% | 13.0% | 17.3% | Road | 32.2% | 9.2% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 5.9% | 9.1% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 30.2% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 2016 | 30.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | Road | 31.0% | 12.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 0.0% | -8.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.5% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 2016 | 28.5% | 11.7% | 4.4% | Home | 27.9% | 11.7% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.8% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 2016 | 32.8% | 17.9% | 16.8% | Home | 35.6% | 12.9% | 22.0% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 33.3% | 12.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.3% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 2016 | 27.0% | 14.4% | 5.5% | Home | 29.0% | 13.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 20.0% | 27.3% |
| Joel De La Cruz | Braves | L2 Years | 33.5% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 2016 | 33.5% | 14.0% | 15.8% | Road | 38.2% | 16.7% | 22.5% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 27.3% | 13.1% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 2016 | 31.4% | 14.5% | 10.6% | Home | 31.7% | 19.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 22.2% | 11.4% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2016 | 29.8% | 10.0% | 7.1% | Home | 35.6% | 0.0% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.5% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 2016 | 34.1% | 8.6% | 13.6% | Road | 29.0% | 12.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 28.7% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 2016 | 30.3% | 14.7% | 11.8% | Home | 29.7% | 14.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 14.3% | 28.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.0% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 2016 | 31.8% | 17.1% | 14.5% | Road | 31.0% | 21.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.1% | 12.1% | 5.5% | 2016 | 27.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% | Home | 24.7% | 11.6% | 0.7% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 10.0% | -15.7% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.9% | 11.6% | 20.3% | 2016 | 36.6% | 14.8% | 20.8% | Road | 33.3% | 10.0% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 34.9% | 13.9% | 13.6% | RH | 33.7% | 13.5% | 15.4% | L7Days | 34.6% | 18.8% | 13.1% |
| Astros | Road | 33.5% | 14.2% | 16.2% | RH | 33.0% | 14.3% | 14.9% | L7Days | 33.9% | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.7% | 15.9% | 13.4% | RH | 33.2% | 15.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 30.8% | 26.8% | 15.4% |
| Reds | Home | 30.7% | 14.2% | 13.8% | RH | 30.6% | 12.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 29.0% | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Home | 31.3% | 14.5% | 15.2% | RH | 31.6% | 14.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 31.7% | 6.7% | 14.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.4% | 13.5% | 13.6% | RH | 34.8% | 13.4% | 15.7% | L7Days | 33.9% | 14.8% | 10.1% |
| Royals | Home | 31.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | RH | 30.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 17.5% | 9.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 33.0% | 15.7% | 15.9% | RH | 34.2% | 15.3% | 16.8% | L7Days | 30.4% | 15.7% | 11.6% |
| Angels | Road | 30.6% | 9.2% | 10.9% | LH | 29.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 33.1% | 15.9% | 13.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.7% | 16.3% | 12.0% | LH | 30.4% | 16.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 31.5% | 7.5% | 9.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | RH | 29.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% |
| Twins | Home | 32.4% | 11.5% | 14.9% | LH | 31.1% | 13.8% | 13.2% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.3% | 4.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.4% | 17.5% | 12.6% | RH | 32.8% | 17.4% | 13.0% | L7Days | 31.1% | 18.8% | 6.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 33.0% | 15.0% | 15.5% | LH | 31.3% | 9.9% | 14.3% | L7Days | 32.2% | 9.8% | 17.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.2% | 13.6% | 15.4% | LH | 34.4% | 12.2% | 16.6% | L7Days | 35.3% | 13.2% | 19.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | LH | 27.8% | 13.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.0% | -7.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 30.5% | 14.0% | 10.9% | RH | 30.4% | 14.0% | 10.9% | L7Days | 32.2% | 20.0% | 10.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 29.9% | 10.6% | 13.4% | RH | 29.6% | 13.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 34.0% | 11.4% | 20.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 12.9% | 10.5% | RH | 32.5% | 15.0% | 13.5% | L7Days | 29.3% | 16.7% | 12.2% |
| Braves | Road | 28.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% | RH | 29.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 32.1% | 8.3% | 13.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.2% | 12.1% | 2.5% | RH | 28.9% | 12.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.7% | 2.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.2% | 11.8% | 12.3% | LH | 34.6% | 20.3% | 17.7% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Padres | Road | 31.7% | 14.8% | 13.0% | LH | 32.4% | 16.3% | 13.9% | L7Days | 31.5% | 14.9% | 12.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 31.8% | 11.4% | 11.7% | RH | 30.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 34.9% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 29.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% | RH | 29.1% | 11.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 29.6% | 16.4% | 12.1% |
| Rays | Home | 33.8% | 13.1% | 14.9% | RH | 33.2% | 14.4% | 14.0% | L7Days | 32.0% | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.0% | 13.8% | 16.1% | RH | 33.0% | 12.7% | 15.4% | L7Days | 30.1% | 12.3% | 9.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.1% | 15.9% | 18.7% | LH | 32.5% | 14.4% | 13.2% | L7Days | 33.1% | 17.2% | 14.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 22.6% | 10.9% | 2.07 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 2.07 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.32 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.34 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | ||||||
| Alex Reyes | STL | 30.9% | 10.7% | 2.89 | 30.9% | 10.7% | 2.89 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 18.0% | 7.5% | 2.40 | 15.6% | 8.3% | 1.88 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 23.2% | 10.4% | 2.23 | 24.2% | 10.7% | 2.26 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 19.9% | 9.2% | 2.16 | 18.9% | 8.7% | 2.17 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.27 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 2.48 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 17.5% | 7.5% | 2.33 | 15.2% | 7.7% | 1.97 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 17.2% | 8.2% | 2.10 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 1.99 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 25.5% | 12.0% | 2.13 | 29.3% | 13.0% | 2.25 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.2% | 9.6% | 2.31 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.05 |
| Chad Green | NYY | 26.3% | 12.4% | 2.12 | 25.3% | 11.4% | 2.22 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 13.9% | 8.0% | 1.74 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 1.81 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 26.1% | 13.0% | 2.01 | 16.3% | 8.5% | 1.92 |
| David Price | BOS | 24.3% | 12.1% | 2.01 | 21.5% | 11.9% | 1.81 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 15.5% | 6.0% | 2.58 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 2.61 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 22.0% | 10.7% | 2.06 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 2.14 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 20.5% | 8.3% | 2.47 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 2.43 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 20.8% | 11.4% | 1.82 | 23.2% | 11.9% | 1.95 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 12.2% | 8.1% | 1.51 | 12.5% | 8.9% | 1.40 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 17.5% | 10.5% | 1.67 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 1.76 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 25.4% | 10.7% | 2.37 | 22.5% | 11.4% | 1.97 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 20.9% | 10.9% | 1.92 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 2.52 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.4% | 9.7% | 1.59 | 11.9% | 9.6% | 1.24 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.0% | 9.0% | 2.22 | 25.0% | 11.3% | 2.21 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 29.4% | 14.6% | 2.01 | 26.6% | 14.3% | 1.86 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 28.3% | 11.3% | 2.50 | 30.9% | 12.4% | 2.49 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 4.97 | 4.89 | -0.08 | 5.72 | 0.75 | 5.75 | 0.78 | 4.97 | 4.9 | -0.07 | 5.72 | 0.75 | 5.75 | 0.78 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 4.39 | 4.57 | 0.18 | 4.94 | 0.55 | 5.2 | 0.81 | 5.34 | 3.98 | -1.36 | 4.65 | -0.69 | 6.04 | 0.7 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | ||||||||||||||
| Alex Reyes | STL | 0.64 | 3.8 | 3.16 | 3.63 | 2.99 | 2.43 | 1.79 | 0.64 | 3.81 | 3.17 | 3.63 | 2.99 | 2.43 | 1.79 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 4.73 | 4.67 | -0.06 | 4.66 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 0.04 | 5.48 | 5.27 | -0.21 | 5 | -0.48 | 4.03 | -1.45 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 4.39 | 3.32 | -1.07 | 3.33 | -1.06 | 3.23 | -1.16 | 2.77 | 3.26 | 0.49 | 3.1 | 0.33 | 2.37 | -0.4 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.92 | 4.49 | -1.43 | 4.73 | -1.19 | 5.05 | -0.87 | 4.3 | 4.28 | -0.02 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 4.79 | 0.49 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 2.96 | 3.86 | 0.9 | 3.87 | 0.91 | 3.5 | 0.54 | 3 | 3.53 | 0.53 | 3.47 | 0.47 | 3.02 | 0.02 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 5.7 | 4.84 | -0.86 | 5.18 | -0.52 | 4.96 | -0.74 | 4.98 | 5.31 | 0.33 | 5.5 | 0.52 | 5.5 | 0.52 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 5.16 | 4.48 | -0.68 | 4.79 | -0.37 | 5.87 | 0.71 | 5.25 | 4.32 | -0.93 | 4.46 | -0.79 | 5.89 | 0.64 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.23 | 3.44 | 0.21 | 3.36 | 0.13 | 3.81 | 0.58 | 5.2 | 2.83 | -2.37 | 2.68 | -2.52 | 3.25 | -1.95 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 3.91 | 4.03 | 0.12 | 4 | 0.09 | 4.08 | 0.17 | 1.47 | 3.89 | 2.42 | 3.76 | 2.29 | 2.65 | 1.18 |
| Chad Green | NYY | 4.09 | 3.49 | -0.6 | 3.55 | -0.54 | 5.12 | 1.03 | 3.54 | 3.9 | 0.36 | 4.23 | 0.69 | 4.72 | 1.18 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 3.51 | 4.45 | 0.94 | 4.66 | 1.15 | 4.28 | 0.77 | 1.4 | 4.56 | 3.16 | 4.31 | 2.91 | 4.44 | 3.04 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.01 | 3.49 | 0.48 | 3.86 | 0.85 | 3.49 | 0.48 | 3.09 | 4.88 | 1.79 | 5.01 | 1.92 | 4.37 | 1.28 |
| David Price | BOS | 3.97 | 3.55 | -0.42 | 3.45 | -0.52 | 3.46 | -0.51 | 2.93 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 4.29 | 1.36 | 4.09 | 1.16 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 3.6 | 4.88 | 1.28 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 4.38 | 0.78 | 3.81 | 4.98 | 1.17 | 5.06 | 1.25 | 4.06 | 0.25 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 3.71 | 4.12 | 0.41 | 4.66 | 0.95 | 4.45 | 0.74 | 4.09 | 4.36 | 0.27 | 4.72 | 0.63 | 4.6 | 0.51 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.39 | 3.49 | 0.1 | 3.24 | -0.15 | 3.7 | 0.31 | 3.19 | 3.7 | 0.51 | 3.39 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 0.21 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.8 | 4.07 | 0.27 | 3.97 | 0.17 | 4.16 | 0.36 | 4.37 | 4.07 | -0.3 | 4.13 | -0.24 | 4.42 | 0.05 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 4.66 | 5.24 | 0.58 | 5.17 | 0.51 | 5.34 | 0.68 | 5.47 | 5.48 | 0.01 | 5.38 | -0.09 | 5.58 | 0.11 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 5.09 | 4.81 | -0.28 | 4.77 | -0.32 | 4.99 | -0.1 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 1 | 4.57 | 0.67 | 5.11 | 1.21 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 3.71 | 3.8 | 0.09 | 3.45 | -0.26 | 3.14 | -0.57 | 1.99 | 3.66 | 1.67 | 3.22 | 1.23 | 2.83 | 0.84 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 2.93 | 4.32 | 1.39 | 4.2 | 1.27 | 3.65 | 0.72 | 9 | 4.83 | -4.17 | 4.99 | -4.01 | 2.89 | -6.11 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 5.17 | 4.83 | -0.34 | 4.61 | -0.56 | 4.83 | -0.34 | 6.62 | 5.77 | -0.85 | 5.7 | -0.92 | 6.2 | -0.42 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.58 | 3.47 | -1.11 | 3.31 | -1.27 | 3.66 | -0.92 | 3.65 | 2.7 | -0.95 | 2.6 | -1.05 | 2.7 | -0.95 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.55 | 2.9 | 0.35 | 2.62 | 0.07 | 2.3 | -0.25 | 2.84 | 3.36 | 0.52 | 3.12 | 0.28 | 3.08 | 0.24 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.28 | 3.46 | -0.82 | 3.3 | -0.98 | 3.5 | -0.78 | 2.7 | 3.05 | 0.35 | 2.85 | 0.15 | 2.81 | 0.11 |
Andrew Triggs seems to have carried almost everything from the bullpen to the rotation and while that’s a good thing in terms of strikeout and swinging strike rates, the low strand rate (65.6% overall, 61.6% last four starts) is something he probably would have rather left behind.
Chad Green has a FIP well above his ERA because of a 25.0 HR/FB, but other estimators well below it, which is a bit confusing with an 84.5 LOB%. He does have an exceptionally strong 19.3 K-BB% though.
Clayton Richard has just an 8.7 HR/FB, which is not that crazy in a pitcher’s park. His strand rate is 69.6% on the season, but if we go back to just his three starts, he has a 15.4 HR/FB and 93.0 LOB% with a .220 BABIP.
David Price has been so up and down this season that his ERA is finally approaching his estimators, which are only about 10 points away from his career rates themselves. His BABIP is still a bit high, but that’s Fenway, especially for a LHP with that giant green wall in LF. His 13.0 HR/FB is the highest of his career, but that’s about the average mark in the league this year. His .250 BABIP in August was his lowest month of the season and he’s now had at least a 78.7% strand rate in three straight months.
Marcus Stroman has a .317 BABIP and though he does have a low LD rate, he never gets anyone to pop out and his league leading ground ball rate comes with a league average rate of hard contact. His 17.1 HR/FB isn’t that big of a deal and still a fairly small sample due to all the ground balls he generates. The 67.3 LOB% is probably the thing we can be most comfortable in regressing going forward.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.285 | 0.188 | -0.097 | 0.114 | 30.4% | 87.9% |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.292 | 0.275 | -0.017 | 0.223 | 15.2% | 86.0% |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.300 | |||||
| Alex Reyes | STL | 0.297 | 0.233 | -0.064 | 0.172 | 10.0% | 74.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 0.301 | 0.302 | 0.001 | 0.183 | 5.5% | 91.2% |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.300 | 0.316 | 0.016 | 0.242 | 4.8% | 86.4% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.300 | 0.319 | 0.019 | 0.19 | 17.3% | 86.8% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.290 | 0.303 | 0.013 | 0.217 | 8.2% | 92.1% |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.295 | 0.306 | 0.011 | 0.158 | 8.8% | 86.9% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 0.303 | 0.306 | 0.003 | 0.191 | 4.3% | 87.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.287 | 0.273 | -0.014 | 0.191 | 2.7% | 86.8% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.298 | 0.331 | 0.033 | 0.208 | 9.8% | 87.0% |
| Chad Green | NYY | 0.294 | 0.295 | 0.001 | 0.21 | 6.8% | 81.4% |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.299 | 0.327 | 0.028 | 0.126 | 4.3% | 86.7% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.290 | 0.278 | -0.012 | 0.207 | 9.4% | 80.5% |
| David Price | BOS | 0.298 | 0.318 | 0.02 | 0.236 | 10.1% | 81.2% |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 0.309 | 0.277 | -0.032 | 0.191 | 6.7% | 92.7% |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.304 | 0.305 | 0.001 | 0.202 | 18.0% | 83.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.300 | 0.288 | -0.012 | 0.216 | 7.1% | 93.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.305 | 0.279 | -0.026 | 0.251 | 13.8% | 84.8% |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.272 | -0.02 | 0.23 | 7.0% | 90.6% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.312 | 0.312 | 0 | 0.202 | 12.0% | 88.1% |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.288 | 0.369 | 0.081 | 0.281 | 12.0% | 82.8% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.301 | 0.242 | -0.059 | 0.183 | 12.4% | 84.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.321 | 0.325 | 0.004 | 0.217 | 6.4% | 90.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.283 | 0.317 | 0.034 | 0.186 | 1.9% | 90.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.307 | 0.333 | 0.026 | 0.224 | 8.5% | 82.5% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.321 | 0.354 | 0.033 | 0.224 | 7.4% | 83.6% |
Julio Urias has countered a high BABIP with a fairly low HR rate, keeping his ERA close enough to his estimators. His 28.1 LD% comes with a hard hit rate (29.8%) just a bit higher and the rest of his BABIP profile quite strong. This is something that should regress satisfactorily given enough time.
Noah Syndergaard has a BABIP at .350 or above in nine of 10 starts, before being below .120 in each of his last two starts. A good portion of his misfortune is due to defense.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
If I were going strictly by the book (or spreadsheet in this case), there appear to be terrific options in every price range. Spreadsheets are occasionally overly zealous on short sample sizes and don’t know a thing about pitch counts or injuries, so human consideration and adjustment is often needed, but this is the spreadsheet’s favorite board of the year. It’s calling for six All-Star or better type overall performances and 11 arms that would be strong plays on any day. A few pieces are going to be moved around, but around one-third of this board are top two tier values on any given day.
Value Tier One
Marcus Stroman (3) has been near dominant and maybe even dominant since the All Star break in terms of strikeouts and ground balls, which is essentially two-thirds of the holy trinity along with weak contact, right? He’s in a high strikeout spot for less than $10K on DraftKings, which is still decent value, but exceptional for less than $8K on FanDuel.
Andrew Triggs faces the Red Sox tonight, but he does so in Oakland. He’s cast very strong peripherals in his four starts with decent results too and while we still won’t call it a nearly favorable matchup, he doesn’t have to excel tonight to cover $4.1K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Two
Jameson Taillon (5t) struggled in his last outing against this same offense, but transitions to a much more favorable park to face this high strikeout offense in at a reasonable cost on either site. A repeat performance is not expected for a pitcher who has come into the game with eight straight quality starts and more than two runs in only two of them.
Noah Syndergaard (1) has looked great over his last few starts. His strikeouts and SwStr% are where they’ve been all season and he’s been dominant on contact. The price has increased, but the matchup is still favorable in a great park.
Alex Reyes is still finding his way in the majors and we didn’t want to over-analyze results from just 55 batters faced, but it looks like both the strikeouts and walks have followed him from the minors. While that’s not all good, it’s certainly a ton of upside for less than $6.5K in a nice spot.
Carlos Carrasco (2) is allowing too much hard contact and has been giving up some runs. However, he has 36 strikeouts and just one walk over his last four starts and faces an offense with very little power. He costs quite a bit, but has immense upside.
Value Tier Three
Julio Urias (5t) probably won’t throw 100 pitches tonight and that lessens his value, but not by much because he’s gone six innings with over 90 pitches in each of his last two starts. He’s improving as he goes along and the Padres strike out a ton, while in decline against LHP. At nearly $10K on DraftKings, I think the price along with the perceived pitch count might unnecessarily drive some people away in a very nice spot. If he threw 15 more pitches (1 inning?) he’s probably be worth more than $11K here. He looks very nice on FanDuel for more than $1K less.
Jeremy Hellickson has been a perfectly average pitcher for the Phillies and though he’s facing an improving offense, it’s still not one he should fear. Perhaps his $7.3K cost on FanDuel is about fair, but a dip to just $4.5K on DraftKings in this spot is very strange.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
David Price (4) costs quite a bit for a low strikeout spot tonight, but it’s a great overall run prevention spot and what he loses in strikeouts, he could gain back in other areas thanks to the park and opposition.
Clayton Richard is not expected to continue pitching as well as he has, but he’s in a great spot against an offense that can’t place a competent lineup out there against LHP and doesn’t even have to do much for the near minimum cost.
Chad Green allowed three HRs in his last start against Baltimore. He allowed four HRs in an earlier start. That’s the risk here, but he costs very little and has major upside in his strikeout rate. He might be able to get away with a few HRs here if he misses enough bats.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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