Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, July 16th
On Saturday, we’re listing all pitchers from the 4pm slate on and covering the 10 game night slate in the notes. One would suspect that with a larger than normal Saturday night slate, we’d have an abundance of strong arms available on just the second day back after the All-Star break. One could not be more wrong.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -6.7 | 3.99 | 6.42 | 1.69 | 0.97 | 3.68 | 3.14 | FLA | 106 | 98 | 114 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | -7 | 4.65 | 5.22 | 1.69 | 1.07 | 4.58 | 4.08 | LOS | 90 | 97 | 142 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0 | 2.87 | 6.12 | 1.44 | 1.07 | 4.2 | 3.03 | ARI | 93 | 91 | 34 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.9 | 4.26 | 5.8 | 1.39 | 1.02 | 4.34 | 4.51 | BOS | 113 | 113 | 89 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.6 | 4.17 | 5.71 | 1.85 | 0.96 | 4.27 | 3.85 | ATL | 74 | 73 | 95 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -4.3 | 4.35 | 5.88 | 1.14 | 0.97 | 4.86 | 6.1 | TAM | 90 | 89 | 62 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.9 | 4.12 | 5.46 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 3.89 | 3.1 | DET | 111 | 101 | 74 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 2.6 | 4.41 | 5.59 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 4.49 | 5.93 | NYY | 94 | 87 | 87 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -0.9 | 3.38 | 6.31 | 1.49 | 1.02 | 3.29 | WAS | 98 | 92 | 80 | |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -6.1 | 3.7 | 6.32 | 1.33 | 0.9 | 3.86 | 4.97 | HOU | 101 | 100 | 46 |
| James Shields | CHW | 1.8 | 4.01 | 6.17 | 1.27 | 0.92 | 4.13 | 5.25 | ANA | 101 | 99 | 80 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 7.8 | 3.89 | 6.71 | 1.18 | 0.86 | 4.29 | 4.46 | SDG | 91 | 79 | 36 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -3.8 | 3.97 | 6.15 | 1.15 | 1.02 | 3.54 | 4.56 | NYM | 90 | 95 | 65 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.6 | 4.31 | 5.87 | 1.63 | 1.02 | 4.84 | 5.59 | CIN | 82 | 78 | 74 |
| John Lamb | CIN | -1 | 4.29 | 5.1 | 1.08 | 1.02 | 4.63 | 3.26 | MIL | 82 | 86 | 47 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 8.1 | 3.7 | 5.69 | 1.71 | 0.9 | 3.81 | 3.17 | SEA | 114 | 113 | 108 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | -4.9 | 4.61 | 5.22 | 1.27 | 1.02 | 4.53 | 6.03 | PHI | 66 | 84 | 96 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.2 | 3.96 | 5.01 | 3.14 | 0.86 | 5.19 | 2.37 | SFO | 95 | 103 | 92 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | -6.6 | 4.44 | 5.73 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 4.38 | 5.41 | BAL | 104 | 92 | 124 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3.8 | 3.72 | 5.77 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 3.44 | 4.69 | CHW | 86 | 87 | 44 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.7 | 4.18 | 5.54 | 0.8 | 0.96 | 4.92 | 3.42 | COL | 82 | 95 | 110 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | -8.4 | 4.85 | 5.49 | 1.97 | 1.01 | 4.36 | 4.88 | KAN | 80 | 89 | 99 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.5 | 4.58 | 6.38 | 1.17 | 0.95 | 4.76 | 4.34 | OAK | 84 | 86 | 100 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -9.3 | 3.89 | 6.44 | 1.91 | 0.95 | 4.02 | 4.57 | TOR | 100 | 105 | 91 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 5.6 | 4.04 | 6.16 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 3.91 | 4.05 | PIT | 92 | 100 | 89 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.4 | 4.67 | 5.8 | 1.22 | 0.97 | 5.07 | 6.23 | STL | 103 | 116 | 161 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 9 | 4.12 | 5.97 | 1.1 | 1.03 | 4.28 | 4.84 | MIN | 95 | 91 | 149 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | -5.5 | 3.91 | 5.72 | 1.63 | 1.03 | 4.03 | 3.96 | CLE | 82 | 106 | 97 |
Brandon McCarthy has struck out 14 of 39 batters since returning from Tommy John Surgery, though he was held to five innings and under 80 pitches in each start, which were both in favorable spots at home. He’s generated as much weak contact as hard (28.6% each) and faces an offense with a 16.6 K-BB% where the park is more dangerous than the lineup he faces aside from a couple of strong bats.
Chad Bettis has an ERA above five with estimators well above four on the road this season, where he’s allowed more than twice as many HRs (nine to four) in two fewer starts. Suffice it to say his road numbers aren’t very good, but you know what’s even worse? The Atlanta offense. They’ve had to improve to go from atrocious to just terrible (6.8 HR/FB at home, 26.7 Hard% and 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP).
Danny Duffy not only continues to strike out batters at an elite rate, but has now pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts and has reached the hundred pitch mark in each of his last four outings. Previously, he’d not exceeded 88 pitches in any start. His 24.1 K-BB% as a starter would tie Stephen Strasburg (before last night) for fifth best in the majors with enough innings to qualify. His 23.7 Soft% would also be fifth highest. The one weakness he has shown is a 35.0 Hard% and 0.60 GB/FB vs RHBs. Even with a league average 13.6 HR/FB, that’s led to 11 HRs, and Detroit can line up entirely from that side of the plate. In fact, his second-lowest strikeout total as a starter this season was just four against the Tigers. The good news is that the Tigers have been just average vs LHP, but better at home.
Jeff Samardzija has a 6.02 ERA with a 5.55 FIP and 4.74 xFIP over his last eight starts. Five of those have been on the road, but only one in a positive run environment (Arizona). He has just a 14.1 K% with an 18.9 Hard-Soft% and 10 HRs over that span. He’s in another great park tonight with maybe the top park-adjusted matchup on the board. The Padres have a 17.7 K-BB% and the third worst offense vs RHP.
Jerad Eickhoff was hammered in his last start in Colorado, but has only allowed more than three ERs two other times and has been the epitome of a league average pitcher, which is more than he was ever supposed to be. He’s been particularly effective at home for some reason in his career (19.2 K-BB%, 5.9 Hard-Soft%). It’s not the park, so it must be the bed. While the Mets retain above average power on the road and vs RHP (17.2 Hard-Soft%), they strike out a bit more than average in both situations as well. The major caveat that would help make this a potentially good spot for him is if Cespedes is still out of the lineup, which appears to be likely.
John Lamb struck out nine of 21 Marlins in his last start going into the break, which seems like an anomaly from a pitcher with an ERA over five with estimators close to that, but he’s struck out 25.4% of batters over the last month and has shown similar ability in the minors and last season. His 9.6 BB% and 34.1 Hard% are still a concern, leading to seven HRs in seven starts at home in a power haven with 10 of his 12 HRs this year being surrendered to RHBs. The thing is though, the Brewers aren’t that potent vs LHP (23.6 K%, 12.2 HR/FB). They do have an amazing 11.5 BB% against southpaws, but also a 26.1 K% on the road.
Luis Perdomo has started six of seven outings since the beginning of June with one long relief appearance lasting more than five innings in Colorado. While the results haven’t been optimal, he’s had a league average 13.8 K-BB% with a SwStr rate below 8.8% just once (7.8% in the first start) and an amazing 66.2 GB% (no qualified pitcher is above 60%). Dallas Keuchel won a Cy Young last year pitching in a similar manner. The Giants have just a 16.7 K% vs RHP and that’s not going to help, but it’s not a bad spot as they’ve shown very little power (8.7 HR/FB vs RHP). A lot of that is due to a power suppressing home park, but Petco isn’t much better.
Matt Shoemaker might be the class of this race tonight. He’s allowed eight runs over his last 9.2 innings, striking out just seven of 47 batters while walking four, but those two starts were in Baltimore and Boston. Four of his last five starts have been on the road. He’s allowed a total of four runs 36.2 innings over his last five home starts, striking out 48 of 139 batters. He returns home to face a weak White Sox lineup in one of tonight’s top park-adjusted matchups.
Tyler Duffey has been inconsistent, but shown high upside occasionally, striking out eight or more in four of his last 12 starts, giving him an above average 14.3 K-BB% on the season. He has allowed 11 HRs in seven home starts, but that may be more randomness than anything, as it’s not a power- friendly park and he can’t sustain a 25.6 HR/FB, though his hard hit rate has been nearly double at home. There’s really no discernible reason for that though. There’s no real discernible reason for Cleveland’s extreme home/road splits either, but a 15.6 team K-BB% on the road plays in his favor if anything.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Tanner Roark (.299 BABIP – 74.7 LOB% – 8.9 HR/FB) has a career 8.9 HR/FB, but that’s still a small sample (480 innings) and HRs have shot up this year. While his -4.5 Hard-Soft% is still tremendous, that gap was 10 points not too long ago. His strikeout upside is not that high for a pitcher priced $8.5K or more (only more than seven once) and he’s had a 9.7 Hard-Soft% (still slightly better than league average) over the last month. However, an average strikeout rate with average contact rates is an average pitcher in an average spot and maybe not worthy of the higher than average price tag.
Trevor Bauer (.279 BABIP – 76.5 LOB% – 8.8 HR/FB) has just a 5.6 K-BB% with a 33.3% hard contact rate over his last three starts. He used to be up and down every other start. Maybe now it’s every other month. The Twins offense is not a complete pushover anymore.
Jimmy Nelson (.278 BABIP – 77.0 LOB% – 11.9 HR/FB) is hiding behind six unearned runs (12% of his total). LHBs should be destroying him (1.7 K-BB%, 39.5 Hard%), but are not due to an unfathomable .234 BABIP. He is now tied with Mike Pelfrey for the sixth lowest SwStr% in baseball this year.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Foltynewicz is inching himself off this list. He struck out a career-high 10 White Sox in his last start, and that’s kind of skewed some of his more recent numbers, but his overall numbers are becoming more impressive as well. One issue is that his 19.6 HR/FB is hiding an 88.2 LOB%, but seven of his eleven HRs have come in two starts. He’s allowed a hard contact rate above 42% in four of his nine starts with 28% or less in all of his other five. He’s still a bit erratic, but is in a good spot against an offense with a 16.7 K-BB% on the road. A mark that matches his own season rate now. Maybe I shouldn’t be as cautious with him on a night like tonight and wouldn’t mind taking a shot with him all that much, but he’s struck out more than five in just three of his starts.
Adam Wainwright has certainly been better lately. A lot of it has been HR suppression (eight straight starts without one), but he also has a 25.6 K% since the start of June, though the contact rates are nothing special with a 26.7 LD% in place of the HRs. The Marlins are an average offense that doesn’t strike out a lot vs RHP. It’s tough to call him much more than an $8K pitcher in a marginal spot.
James Shields has gone at least six innings with two runs or less in three straight starts, and that might seem like somewhat of a rebound from the drubbings he had been taking previously, but he’s still struck out three or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. The Angels strike out less than any other team vs RHP (15.5%).
Archie Bradley has shown some upside from a bat missing standpoint, but has also walked too many batters (10.8%) and allowed way too much hard contact (37.4%) in a tough park, which has led to nine of his 10 HRs allowed this year coming in his five home starts.
Logan Verrett could probably be on the above list with a gap between his poor ERA and atrocious estimators, but may not even be worth the explanation today. How’s this? He’s been bad enough in a starting role that the Mets are considering bringing back Jon Niese.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 17.9% | 5.8% | Home | 17.9% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 5.0% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.2% | 11.8% | Home | 21.7% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 7.5% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.7% | 4.2% | Road | 18.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 10.3% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.6% | Home | 18.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 5.7% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.2% | Road | 17.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 3.8% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.1% | Road | 16.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.8% | Road | 23.6% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 1.1% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.4% | Road | 18.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 23.9% | 5.7% | Road | 24.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.2% | 4.5% | Home | 18.9% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 5.1% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.3% | Road | 21.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 6.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.4% | 4.9% | Road | 16.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 6.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.4% | Home | 24.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.0% | 9.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.6% | Road | 15.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| John Lamb | Reds | L2 Years | 21.7% | 9.2% | Home | 20.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 7.1% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.9% | Road | 23.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 10.6% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 17.5% | 9.7% | Road | 19.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.3% | 8.4% | Home | 11.5% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 1.8% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.5% | Home | 21.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 8.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.3% | Home | 26.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 7.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.8% | Home | 17.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 4.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 11.4% | 7.2% | Home | 12.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 7.6% | 8.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.2% | Road | 13.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 7.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.7% | Home | 18.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 17.7% | 5.8% | Home | 19.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 4.9% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.7% | 9.9% | Road | 15.1% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 5.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.3% | 9.7% | Road | 22.7% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 11.3% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 20.4% | 6.4% | Home | 18.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 20.1% | 7.3% | RH | 18.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 9.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 8.8% | RH | 20.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 5.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.9% | 6.8% | RH | 23.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 2.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 8.2% | LH | 18.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 14.7% | 9.2% |
| Rays | Home | 25.6% | 7.5% | RH | 24.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.0% | 8.4% | LH | 21.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.9% | 9.0% | LH | 18.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.2% | 10.2% | RH | 19.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 15.5% | 13.6% |
| Astros | Road | 23.0% | 9.5% | RH | 24.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.5% | 1.9% |
| Angels | Home | 15.8% | 8.0% | RH | 15.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.9% | 12.1% |
| Padres | Home | 23.7% | 7.4% | RH | 24.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 42.7% | 6.3% |
| Mets | Road | 23.5% | 7.7% | RH | 22.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 7.0% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.4% | 5.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.1% | 9.4% | LH | 23.6% | 11.5% | L7Days | 35.5% | 8.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | RH | 19.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.6% | 6.7% | RH | 21.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.9% |
| Giants | Road | 17.5% | 8.4% | RH | 16.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.6% | 7.0% | LH | 22.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.2% | 7.4% | RH | 21.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 3.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 7.0% | RH | 19.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.7% | 5.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.6% | 6.2% | RH | 18.2% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.8% | 9.9% | RH | 22.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 12.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.3% | 7.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 29.6% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.1% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.6% |
| Twins | Home | 19.5% | 8.1% | RH | 21.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 14.6% | 8.1% |
| Indians | Road | 22.3% | 6.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 2016 | 30.7% | 7.9% | 13.6% | Home | 28.3% | 0.0% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 0.0% | 10.9% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.8% | 14.9% | 21.2% | 2016 | 37.4% | 17.9% | 18.7% | Home | 39.3% | 20.4% | 23.0% | L14 Days | 48.2% | 20.0% | 26.8% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 36.3% | 19.0% | 21.2% | 2016 | 28.6% | 12.5% | 0.0% | Road | 47.1% | 42.9% | 23.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.5% | 13.0% | 8.6% | 2016 | 24.4% | 6.5% | 0.8% | Home | 28.3% | 12.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 14.3% | 4.4% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 2016 | 32.3% | 15.1% | 16.2% | Road | 30.4% | 12.3% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 10.0% | 19.6% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 2016 | 31.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | Road | 29.1% | 13.0% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 4.8% | 12.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 2016 | 31.3% | 12.2% | 7.6% | Road | 28.0% | 11.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 4.3% | 11.1% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 2016 | 35.6% | 18.4% | 15.4% | Road | 37.0% | 9.5% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.1% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 2016 | 28.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | Road | 27.2% | 4.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 2016 | 32.3% | 12.7% | 16.0% | Home | 32.4% | 14.9% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 3.8% | 25.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 2016 | 32.9% | 16.5% | 17.0% | Road | 32.0% | 14.9% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 28.4% | 17.4% | 17.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 27.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 2016 | 31.2% | 12.7% | 13.9% | Road | 27.4% | 11.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 10.0% | 26.2% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2016 | 30.9% | 12.3% | 10.3% | Home | 28.6% | 10.0% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 42.6% | 15.0% | 35.2% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 2016 | 35.4% | 11.9% | 15.0% | Road | 30.5% | 8.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 37.2% | 0.0% | 25.6% |
| John Lamb | Reds | L2 Years | 29.9% | 15.4% | 9.2% | 2016 | 34.1% | 16.2% | 12.9% | Home | 27.0% | 15.4% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 23.5% | 18.2% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 2016 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | Road | 29.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 14.3% | 15.4% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 32.0% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 2016 | 35.8% | 15.8% | 24.6% | Road | 33.8% | 13.7% | 22.5% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 18.2% | 19.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 30.9% | 22.7% | 12.3% | 2016 | 30.9% | 22.7% | 12.3% | Home | 30.2% | 12.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 2016 | 32.7% | 12.9% | 13.8% | Home | 32.3% | 13.0% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.6% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 2016 | 31.0% | 11.9% | 13.0% | Home | 33.2% | 11.3% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 9.5% | -3.8% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 31.0% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 2016 | 31.7% | 19.6% | 10.3% | Home | 29.3% | 11.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 38.6% | 25.0% | 22.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 2016 | 31.0% | 14.3% | 10.4% | Home | 29.0% | 12.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 26.8% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 2016 | 30.9% | 16.1% | 10.2% | Road | 25.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 13.0% | 16.7% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.3% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 2016 | 33.0% | 15.2% | 17.5% | Home | 26.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 12.5% | 5.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 2016 | 22.7% | 8.3% | -4.5% | Home | 22.9% | 10.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 0.0% | 15.2% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 2016 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | Road | 30.5% | 11.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 9.1% | 17.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 2016 | 32.6% | 8.8% | 13.8% | Road | 29.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 13.3% | 13.7% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 30.3% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 2016 | 32.7% | 18.7% | 14.2% | Home | 35.6% | 17.7% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 20.0% | 14.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 30.9% | 10.2% | 10.6% | RH | 29.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.0% | 5.3% | 10.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.8% | 11.4% | 17.8% | RH | 33.0% | 13.8% | 15.8% | L7Days | 34.9% | 15.0% | 19.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 36.0% | 17.0% | 20.5% | RH | 33.9% | 13.8% | 16.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 8.7% | 21.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.5% | 14.6% | 13.6% | LH | 31.3% | 10.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 35.1% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| Braves | Home | 28.3% | 6.8% | 9.9% | RH | 26.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.3% | 21.7% | 6.0% |
| Rays | Home | 32.7% | 12.0% | 13.9% | RH | 32.5% | 14.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 4.2% | 8.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 32.4% | 14.4% | 16.4% | LH | 32.8% | 12.5% | 13.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 13.6% | 10.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 28.0% | 13.1% | 8.0% | LH | 30.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 28.7% | 5.3% | 12.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.6% | 13.4% | 13.5% | RH | 33.1% | 13.4% | 16.0% | L7Days | 43.6% | 11.1% | 21.8% |
| Astros | Road | 35.0% | 14.6% | 18.1% | RH | 34.6% | 15.2% | 17.5% | L7Days | 29.1% | 8.0% | 14.0% |
| Angels | Home | 29.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | RH | 30.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 33.8% | 0.0% | 19.5% |
| Padres | Home | 30.6% | 12.9% | 12.1% | RH | 31.4% | 12.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 30.6% | 20.0% | 14.3% |
| Mets | Road | 33.4% | 14.2% | 18.3% | RH | 34.5% | 14.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 31.0% | 11.4% | 15.5% |
| Reds | Home | 30.9% | 14.9% | 13.9% | RH | 30.5% | 11.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 33.8% | 3.7% | 16.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.7% | 12.9% | 8.5% | LH | 31.9% | 12.2% | 13.7% | L7Days | 39.0% | 6.7% | 17.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 32.0% | 17.3% | 14.4% | RH | 32.2% | 16.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 25.6% | 15.0% | 3.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.6% | 10.6% | 1.0% | RH | 28.4% | 12.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 36.8% | 13.6% | 15.0% |
| Giants | Road | 32.7% | 11.4% | 13.7% | RH | 30.6% | 8.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 34.8% | 3.7% | 16.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.4% | 14.9% | 14.1% | LH | 34.0% | 13.0% | 13.5% | L7Days | 34.6% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | RH | 28.8% | 11.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 35.5% | 3.4% | 17.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.4% | 13.6% | 10.9% | RH | 32.5% | 13.9% | 15.0% | L7Days | 37.2% | 8.8% | 25.6% |
| Royals | Road | 26.9% | 10.2% | 7.4% | RH | 29.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 12.0% | 5.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 28.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | RH | 29.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 22.2% | 14.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.6% | 14.9% | 12.0% | RH | 33.3% | 15.1% | 15.4% | L7Days | 31.7% | 6.7% | 14.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.9% | 11.7% | 9.6% | RH | 28.9% | 11.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 27.3% | 14.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.6% | 12.9% | 16.4% | RH | 33.3% | 15.0% | 15.3% | L7Days | 38.1% | 23.7% | 19.0% |
| Twins | Home | 32.1% | 10.9% | 15.1% | RH | 31.1% | 11.7% | 13.2% | L7Days | 40.4% | 17.9% | 27.6% |
| Indians | Road | 31.1% | 12.1% | 12.4% | RH | 31.7% | 14.8% | 14.3% | L7Days | 27.0% | 8.0% | 12.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.5% | 8.3% | 2.23 | 23.7% | 10.5% | 2.26 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 23.7% | 8.9% | 2.66 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 2.59 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 35.9% | 11.4% | 3.15 | 35.9% | 11.4% | 3.15 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.8% | 10.3% | 1.83 | 16.7% | 12.8% | 1.30 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 17.1% | 8.7% | 1.97 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.70 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 | 15.1% | 6.5% | 2.32 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 28.8% | 14.1% | 2.04 | 29.2% | 11.5% | 2.54 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 15.3% | 8.0% | 1.91 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 19.0% | 8.0% | 2.38 | |||
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 17.3% | 8.1% | 2.14 | 14.7% | 5.3% | 2.77 |
| James Shields | CHW | 16.7% | 9.0% | 1.86 | 10.7% | 6.1% | 1.75 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.01 | 14.5% | 8.3% | 1.75 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.5% | 9.7% | 2.11 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.07 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 16.5% | 6.8% | 2.43 | 9.0% | 5.3% | 1.70 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 18.2% | 8.0% | 2.28 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 2.73 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 28.2% | 12.7% | 2.22 | 27.7% | 13.6% | 2.04 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.90 | 12.2% | 7.1% | 1.72 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.3% | 10.4% | 1.66 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 1.48 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 20.7% | 10.4% | 1.99 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 1.92 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 23.4% | 13.5% | 1.73 | 24.8% | 13.3% | 1.86 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.21 | 26.2% | 13.0% | 2.02 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 10.4% | 6.8% | 1.53 | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.91 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 17.0% | 9.8% | 1.73 | 19.1% | 11.7% | 1.63 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 18.0% | 7.8% | 2.31 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 2.51 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 21.2% | 8.8% | 2.41 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 2.28 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.5% | 8.7% | 2.01 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 1.75 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 21.8% | 9.3% | 2.34 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 2.51 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 19.4% | 8.2% | 2.37 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.17 |
Chad Bettis has had a double-digit SwStr% in each of his last five starts, yet has only struck out more than five once. This is a welcome sign, though it probably doesn’t give us much of an edge as many players will likely be on the pitcher facing the Braves tonight.
Luis Perdomo should be in line for more strikeouts. We already mentioned his SwStr% consistency above. Maybe catcher framing has been an issue for him so far and maybe he won’t retain an above average SwStr%, but the consistency over seven outings presents a better case for him.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.36 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.32 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.49 | 4.3 | -0.19 | 4.05 | -0.44 | 3.46 | -1.03 | 2.76 | 3.77 | 1.01 | 3.33 | 0.57 | 2.2 | -0.56 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 4.64 | 4.28 | -0.36 | 4.04 | -0.6 | 4.6 | -0.04 | 4.15 | 4.13 | -0.02 | 3.84 | -0.31 | 4.73 | 0.58 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 2.7 | 3.03 | 0.33 | 2.92 | 0.22 | 2.88 | 0.18 | 2.7 | 3.03 | 0.33 | 2.92 | 0.22 | 2.88 | 0.18 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.77 | 4.61 | 0.84 | 4.69 | 0.92 | 3.82 | 0.05 | 6.83 | 4.48 | -2.35 | 4.62 | -2.21 | 4.73 | -2.1 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.65 | 4.13 | -1.52 | 3.95 | -1.7 | 4.19 | -1.46 | 5.16 | 3.56 | -1.6 | 3.33 | -1.83 | 2.64 | -2.52 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 3.41 | 4.47 | 1.06 | 4.41 | 1 | 4.27 | 0.86 | 4.29 | 5.27 | 0.98 | 5.18 | 0.89 | 4.97 | 0.68 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.09 | 3.14 | 0.05 | 3.54 | 0.45 | 3.43 | 0.34 | 2.79 | 3.27 | 0.48 | 3.43 | 0.64 | 3.46 | 0.67 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 8.59 | 5.36 | -3.23 | 5.78 | -2.81 | 6.96 | -1.63 | 10.7 | 4.81 | -5.89 | 5.14 | -5.56 | 6.35 | -4.35 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.77 | 4.35 | 1.58 | 4.11 | 1.34 | 3.1 | 0.33 | |||||||
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.25 | 4.54 | 0.29 | 4.6 | 0.35 | 4.56 | 0.31 | 4.65 | 4.92 | 0.27 | 4.99 | 0.34 | 4.76 | 0.11 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.42 | 5.04 | -0.38 | 4.87 | -0.55 | 5.37 | -0.05 | 6.19 | 6.04 | -0.15 | 5.99 | -0.2 | 6.11 | -0.08 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 3.91 | 4.17 | 0.26 | 4.05 | 0.14 | 4.02 | 0.11 | 5.2 | 4.79 | -0.41 | 4.78 | -0.42 | 4.94 | -0.26 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.8 | 4.14 | 0.34 | 4.15 | 0.35 | 4.06 | 0.26 | 4.04 | 4.52 | 0.48 | 4.74 | 0.7 | 4.63 | 0.59 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.62 | 5.04 | 1.42 | 4.94 | 1.32 | 4.81 | 1.19 | 4.21 | 6.24 | 2.03 | 6.27 | 2.06 | 4.31 | 0.1 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 5.43 | 4.84 | -0.59 | 4.71 | -0.72 | 5.18 | -0.25 | 6.3 | 4.12 | -2.18 | 3.88 | -2.42 | 5.34 | -0.96 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.79 | 3.98 | 0.19 | 3.38 | -0.41 | 2.89 | -0.9 | 2.7 | 3.76 | 1.06 | 3.27 | 0.57 | 2.75 | 0.05 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 4.34 | 5.18 | 0.84 | 5.07 | 0.73 | 5.44 | 1.1 | 6.41 | 5.96 | -0.45 | 5.41 | -1 | 8.01 | 1.6 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 7.48 | 3.96 | -3.52 | 3.98 | -3.5 | 4.84 | -2.64 | 4.97 | 3.25 | -1.72 | 3.25 | -1.72 | 3.73 | -1.24 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 4.46 | 4.31 | -0.15 | 4.6 | 0.14 | 4.59 | 0.13 | 2.52 | 4.4 | 1.88 | 4.87 | 2.35 | 3.84 | 1.32 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.45 | 3.78 | -0.67 | 3.81 | -0.64 | 3.66 | -0.79 | 2.92 | 3.76 | 0.84 | 4.06 | 1.14 | 3.42 | 0.5 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.67 | 3.93 | 0.26 | 4.12 | 0.45 | 5.11 | 1.44 | 4.02 | 3.42 | -0.6 | 3.92 | -0.1 | 5.92 | 1.9 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 4.58 | 5.27 | 0.69 | 5.05 | 0.47 | 5.21 | 0.63 | 4.36 | 5 | 0.64 | 4.92 | 0.56 | 4.72 | 0.36 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 3.93 | 4.76 | 0.83 | 4.62 | 0.69 | 5.06 | 1.13 | 3.49 | 4.43 | 0.94 | 4.43 | 0.94 | 5.84 | 2.35 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 5.16 | 4.41 | -0.75 | 4.24 | -0.92 | 4.5 | -0.66 | 4.8 | 4.13 | -0.67 | 4.01 | -0.79 | 3.91 | -0.89 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.01 | 3.93 | 0.92 | 3.68 | 0.67 | 3.25 | 0.24 | 2.68 | 3.75 | 1.07 | 3.65 | 0.97 | 2.74 | 0.06 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.5 | 5.17 | 0.67 | 5.07 | 0.57 | 4.38 | -0.12 | 4.8 | 4.92 | 0.12 | 4.99 | 0.19 | 4.71 | -0.09 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.3 | 4.07 | 0.77 | 4.05 | 0.75 | 3.56 | 0.26 | 2.43 | 4.01 | 1.58 | 3.83 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 0.67 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 5.2 | 3.97 | -1.23 | 3.88 | -1.32 | 4.58 | -0.62 | 4.94 | 4.29 | -0.65 | 4.35 | -0.59 | 5.48 | 0.54 |
Chad Bettis has a .344 BABIP, which isn’t even really out of line for Coors, resulting in a 63.7 LOB%. Predictably, his BABIP drops to .310 on the road, but with a 67.7 LOB% that may still be in line for some improvement, though he doesn’t generate any popups and has a 16.7 HR/FB with a 17.6 Hard-Soft% on the road so far.
John Lamb has a 16.2 HR/FB that might be a thing in Cincinnati with an above average rate of hard contact allowed. It’s not even much higher than league average anymore. The 68.0 LOB% might be in line for some improvement, but he’s probably going to have to sustain an above average K% for that to happen.
Luis Perdomo has a ridiculous BABIP. He doesn’t get any free outs (popups), but the line drive rate has been normal with a hard contact rate below right at league average and a tremendous amount of groundballs. That’s where the regression starts. It should carry over to his 63.6 LOB%. A 28.6 HR/FB might be a little more work as sometimes extreme ground ball pitchers have higher HR rates, but not more HRs because of the ground balls. Another factor against him is the misfortune of appearing in so many power-friendly parks recently (COL, CIN, ARI, BAL since June).
Matt Shoemaker has a .331 BABIP and still a .328 one since he started his turnaround in May, though the LOB% has improved 10 points. While his indicators or more predictive stats (IFFB% and Z-Contact%) are great, his LD% has remained high.
Tyler Duffey has just a 57.9 LOB% probably due to his 25.6 HR/FB at home. It’s impossible to explain why his numbers have been so much better on the road, including a K% eight points higher.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.1 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.292 | 0.323 | 0.031 | 0.264 | 8.9% | 93.1% |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 0.314 | 0.291 | -0.023 | 0.233 | 5.4% | 84.8% |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.277 | 0.200 | -0.077 | 0.15 | 12.5% | 80.0% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.301 | 0.294 | -0.007 | 0.172 | 18.5% | 86.7% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.319 | 0.344 | 0.025 | 0.228 | 4.7% | 86.3% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.307 | 0.268 | -0.039 | 0.218 | 8.5% | 85.1% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.292 | 0.295 | 0.003 | 0.202 | 12.2% | 79.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.300 | 0.316 | 0.016 | 0.221 | 10.2% | 88.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.301 | 0.321 | 0.02 | 0.259 | 7.8% | 91.0% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.296 | 0.309 | 0.013 | 0.213 | 12.7% | 91.3% |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.303 | 0.318 | 0.015 | 0.223 | 7.3% | 88.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.288 | 0.282 | -0.006 | 0.193 | 8.5% | 87.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.308 | 0.297 | -0.011 | 0.212 | 14.0% | 88.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.278 | -0.027 | 0.201 | 11.9% | 90.1% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 0.291 | 0.307 | 0.016 | 0.214 | 12.2% | 84.2% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.307 | 0.395 | 0.088 | 0.224 | 12.5% | 88.8% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.303 | 0.276 | -0.027 | 0.218 | 3.5% | 91.3% |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.305 | 0.401 | 0.096 | 0.219 | 2.3% | 88.4% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.305 | 0.298 | -0.007 | 0.191 | 10.0% | 83.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.305 | 0.331 | 0.026 | 0.26 | 13.8% | 83.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.284 | -0.008 | 0.21 | 10.7% | 87.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 0.313 | 0.342 | 0.029 | 0.209 | 15.4% | 89.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.281 | 0.265 | -0.016 | 0.21 | 12.9% | 83.5% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.309 | 0.311 | 0.002 | 0.184 | 8.9% | 92.7% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.287 | 0.299 | 0.012 | 0.217 | 4.8% | 87.5% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.300 | 0.320 | 0.02 | 0.237 | 11.9% | 88.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.280 | 0.279 | -0.001 | 0.182 | 7.7% | 86.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.321 | 0.317 | -0.004 | 0.229 | 10.7% | 88.5% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Continuing to complain about the lack of quality arms tonight is not going to help the case. Unfortunately, that seems to extend to application of price tags as well. There’s really only one pitcher who looks like a genuine bargain tonight then a large gap until we get to the remaining group of pitchers who would have been barely worth considering yesterday.
Value Tier One
Matt Shoemaker (1) has suffered through his worst two outings since his turnaround in his last two starts. That’s probably good news for us because they were both on the road in two of the toughest parks against the toughest offenses and has reduced his price to $8K in a great spot at home, where he’s been dominant his last five starts. While not the top overall guy, he’d probably be a top-tier guy on most boards. It’s the rest of this group we should be more concerned about.
Value Tier Two
Brandon McCarthy might cost a bit too much for a pitcher who’s being held to under 80 pitches, but he’s come back strong in two starts, and though he suffers a substantial park downgrade, the offense he’s facing in it is not all that scary. The hope is that his pitch count will increase, allowing him to get through six innings tonight. Normally, this still wouldn’t give you a second-tier pitcher for $8K or more, but this is the state of affairs tonight.
John Lamb is by no means a sure thing tonight, but he has upside, which he’s shown more frequently lately and faces the offense with the highest strikeout rate in baseball tonight at a low price. Some may be skeptical because of the way the Brewers line up with three RH power bats in the middle, but looking at the performance against LHP really leaves you more concerned about the walks than anything else. A solo HR or two won’t even hurt as much if his strikeout potential comes through.
Value Tier Three
Chad Bettis doesn’t have much going for him except a low price tag and an appointment in Atlanta against the Braves tonight. That’s generally enough and the increased SwStr% over the last month is an added silver lining. He’s gone beyond six innings only five times in 18 starts this year though.
Luis Perdomo – I’ve been on this train at an extremely low price for a few starts now and while he hasn’t broken out, he’s covered his price. While the Giants don’t strike out, they don’t need to for the bare minimum on DraftKings! Consider that three quarters of the batters he’s faced since being moved to the rotation have either struck out or kept it on the ground.
Jeff Samardzija has been terrible for the last month and a half, but still has had three starts (of eight) where he’s allowed two runs or less and he’s in about as comfortable a spot as a RHP can be in Petco. He still has a league average K% with a .274 wOBA allowed to RHBs this year.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Tyler Duffey nearly won me a GPP his last time out (not that close, but closer than I’ve been in quite some time). He’s basically either been a disaster or a godsend at a low cost and definitely the former more often than the latter when mentioned here. I opt to keep him on the bottom of the usable list tonight because the board is so weak and he does have some upside. I believe in the decent peripherals more than his ridiculous splits at home in a park that just doesn’t justify it. I’m not sure I want to pay $7K for him though.
Jerad Eickhoff has been great at home. In a park like Kansas City, St Louis, or even Tampa Bay, you might understand why that is. In Philadelphia it seems like more of an intangibles thing where analytically inclined people are willing to trust it less, none the less, it has happened over a decent enough sample now to at least consider the possibility. It will be a good spot if Cespedes is out again (likely), really weakening the Mets lineup.
Danny Duffy as an $11K pitcher is a bit disorienting. He’s $1.4K more than any other pitcher on DraftKings and while he’s probably pitched well enough to earn it, the matchup is a little concerning as RHBs have still hit him hard and that’s probably all he’s going to see in Detroit. The elite strikeout upside (still 26% vs RHBs) still keeps him firmly in play for less than $9K on FanDuel.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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