Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 29th
Thirteen games is fairly hefty for a Thursday. Only eight of those are on the night slate, which is covered below. All pitchers will be listed, though I can’t promise to make the noon start.
The night slate seems to have it all. There’s are high end arms, lower cost upside, and plenty of usable arms in between.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 4.5 | 4.81 | 5.36 | 47.4% | 1.09 | 5.29 | 3.91 | CLE | 100 | 104 | 95 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -1.9 | 3.8 | 4.82 | 42.7% | 0.94 | 3.69 | 3.01 | OAK | 87 | 105 | 131 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.5 | 3.48 | 6.18 | 45.2% | 0.97 | 3.76 | 3.81 | PIT | 90 | 90 | 52 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2 | 2.5 | 7.11 | 48.1% | 0.91 | 2.66 | 2.39 | ANA | 103 | 89 | 83 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -4.5 | 3.29 | 6.75 | 43.8% | 1.09 | 3.34 | 1.76 | TEX | 81 | 96 | 99 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -14.2 | 4.07 | 5.33 | 49.1% | 0.94 | 4.6 | 4.07 | HOU | 120 | 126 | 152 |
| David Price | BOS | 2.7 | 3.53 | 6.55 | 43.7% | 1.13 | 3.25 | 5.08 | MIN | 91 | 89 | 54 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -9.1 | 3.35 | 5. | 28.9% | 0.91 | 4.31 | 2.31 | ATL | 95 | 93 | 82 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 10.3 | 3.87 | 3.46 | 45.1% | 1.02 | 4.6 | 6.73 | MIL | 95 | 97 | 106 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -2.3 | 3.94 | 5.8 | 42.9% | 1.03 | 3.51 | 3.01 | BAL | 92 | 90 | 95 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | -0.6 | 4.05 | 5.86 | 56.7% | 0.91 | 4.47 | 4.63 | SDG | 86 | 71 | 80 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 7.8 | 5.19 | 5.4 | 38.0% | 0.98 | 5.22 | 4.19 | DET | 115 | 95 | 87 |
| James Shields | CHW | -0.3 | 4.83 | 5.66 | 41.6% | 0.98 | 5.09 | 5 | NYY | 104 | 121 | 81 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -6.8 | 3.79 | 5.74 | 52.4% | 0.97 | 3.54 | 3.85 | TAM | 100 | 115 | 117 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -1.5 | 4.17 | 5.79 | 48.9% | 0.91 | 4.24 | 3.73 | LOS | 92 | 108 | 120 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.4 | 4.39 | 5.73 | 50.2% | 1.02 | 4.8 | 3.01 | CIN | 107 | 102 | 100 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0 | 4.11 | 5.51 | 42.3% | 1.01 | 3.67 | 4.71 | CHC | 89 | 87 | 90 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.3 | 3.46 | 6.37 | 48.1% | 1.01 | 3.67 | 3.77 | WAS | 121 | 106 | 146 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.6 | 5.03 | 5.2 | 44.2% | 0.94 | 5.08 | 5.3 | NYM | 118 | 105 | 156 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.9 | 4.62 | 5.71 | 50.2% | 1.13 | 5.04 | 6.75 | BOS | 94 | 93 | 94 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -7.8 | 4.4 | 5.45 | 45.1% | 1.13 | 4.7 | 5.42 | ARI | 113 | 106 | 90 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 5.8 | 4.3 | 5.47 | 43.5% | 0.98 | 4.7 | 3.26 | CHW | 97 | 83 | 87 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.6 | 4.13 | 6.3 | 49.5% | 0.98 | 4.26 | 4.8 | KAN | 88 | 83 | 96 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -7.4 | 4.11 | 5.49 | 51.4% | 1.13 | 4.2 | 3.42 | STL | 89 | 83 | 82 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.5 | 4.77 | 6.01 | 0.421 | 0.94 | 4.67 | 5.51 | MIA | 90 | 92 | 44 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -2.7 | 4.65 | 5.38 | 0.488 | 1.03 | 4.82 | 7.56 | TOR | 94 | 92 | 101 |
Chris Archer is tied with Kershaw for just the fourth highest strikeout rate on the entire day at 29.2%. That’s insane! His 21.5 K-BB% is ninth in baseball. He’s run into some recent issues with run prevention as his hard hit rate is now up to 40.4% on the season with an 89.4 mph aEV (39.3% 95+ mph EV), but his barrel rate is still low (3.9% per BBE), which makes sense considering he’s allowed just nine HRs, as it’s his BABIP that’s climbing (.318). He’s in a pretty great spot in Pittsburgh to continue that power suppression. The Pirates only strike out a bit over 18% at home and against RHP, but have no power in that park (9.5 HR/FB).
Clayton Kershaw struck out eight and did not allow a HR for the first time in six starts (10 HRs) in his last start. Despite the long ball issues (already a career high 17), he’s struck out at least eight in five of his last seven starts for a 35.2 K% over the last month. His 24.9 K-BB% is third best in baseball. His hard contact rate is below 30% with an 85.7 mph aEV and 29.5% 95+ mph EV (7.5% Barrels/BBE). All of this suggests that his HR issues should resolve and that he may be getting a bit unlucky. He’s in a great spot to limit power on the road against the Angels tonight. They may not strike out much, but have just an 8.6 HR/FB vs LHP.
Dinelson Lamet has struck out eight or more in three of his six starts with “increased velocity:”http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/who-is-dinelson-lamet-and-should-you-roster-him/ on his fastball this season. The other thing he’s done is limit walks with just one or fewer in four of his last five starts. His 7.7 BB% is his lowest at any level of professional ball with more than four innings. Contact has been a problem…a major problem. With eight HRs allowed already, he has an 89.2 mph EV, but an 18.4% Barrels/BBE that nobody else comes close to today and 42.1% 95+ mph aEV that makes even his 40.8 Hard% look low. The good news is that he stays at home to face an offense without too much power and a -1.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week. The bad news is that they don’t strike out a ton (19% on the road and vs RHP).
J.A. Happ struggled in his first couple of starts back from the DL, but has gone 19.1 innings with four ERs and 22 strikeouts in three since. His 22.3 K-BB% would be a top 10 mark if qualified, while his 10.6 SwStr% is a career high by a full point as well. Batters are chasing pitchers out of the strike zone 36.8% of the time. This has made him a quality arm even with average contact management this year. He hosts a Baltimore offense that despite being predominantly right-handed, continues to struggle with LHP (18.7 K-BB%).
Jaime Garcia has allowed 12 ERs over his last 47 batters, but has struck out 10 of 47 batters (though just three in his last start) with a SwStr rate above 12% in both starts. He’s now exceeded that rate in four straight starts. His 55.7 GB% is eighth best in baseball with an 85.3 mph aEV. He may be in the top spot on the board in San Diego (25.3 K% vs LHP).
Jameson Taillon has allowed six runs in 16 innings with 16 strikeouts since kicking the crap out of cancer. His contact quality has been exceptional too (51.2 GB%, 10.9 Hard-Soft%). His 84.4 mph aEV for the season is the lowest mark for the entire day. That should play well against a high power (18.8 HR/FB vs RHP), high strikeout (24.8 K% vs RHP) offense at home tonight. He’ll still have to worry about a couple of LH power bats (Dickerson, Morrison), but should be in a position to succeed tonight.
Jimmy Nelson has struck out 18 of his last 59 batters and seems to have made real improvements against LHBs since the start of May (.252 wOBA, 32.5 K-BB%), though they’re still making hard contact on 34.3% of batted balls. At the same time though, RHBs have a .337 wOBA and 12.3 K-BB% over that time despite a 61.1 GB% and -4.0 Hard-Soft%. Overall, he’s up to a 50 GB% on the season with a 30.7 Hard% both within half a point of his career levels along with the increase in his strikeout rate that give him a career high 18.2 K-BB%. The numbers don’t like him today because of his 8.0 K-BB% on the road since last season, but I’m calling the audible even in a difficult spot in Cincinnati because this appears to be a different pitcher, doing things the numbers don’t really see. He has allowed at least three runs in six innings or less in three of his last four starts though.
Luis Cessa struck out eight in his last start, but had just a 17.0 K% at AAA this season and has been around an average strikeout rate in the minors the last few years with a 16 K% in 70 major league innings split between bullpen and rotation last year. He’s allowed a HR in each of his three starts, but contact rate diverge with a 30.3 Hard% on Fangraphs and a 91.9 mph aEV (42.4% 95+ mph EV) on Statcast. The White Sox have a 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP and 18.8 K-BB5 over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Seth Lugo (.295 – 75.4% – 9.5) has just a 7.1 K-BB% and 6.7 SwStr% in three starts.
James Shields (.239 – 92.5% – 18.9) could have an ERA closer to six.
Jose Urena (.245 – 81.5% – 10.5)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
David Price did not allow a HR for the first time this season, but has struggled through six starts, getting through more than six innings just once with just a 9.3 K-BB%, nearly half his career rate (17.1%). Though he has a favorable 85.4 mph aEV, 10.7% of his batted balls have been barrels, essentially tied with James Shields. The good news is that he faces a struggling Minnesota offense (9.7 HR/FB vs LHP), who have a 22.6 K-BB% over the last week. That makes him the most borderline omission tonight.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.4% | 10.1% | Road | 15.0% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 30.1% | 12.2% | Home | 33.8% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 9.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.1% | Road | 25.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 3.2% | Road | 29.0% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 4.2% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 6.2% | Home | 29.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 3.6% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 17.1% | 2.9% | Road | 13.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 2.9% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 24.7% | 5.8% | Home | 26.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 32.3% | 7.7% | Home | 27.9% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 2.2% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 23.0% | 7.9% | Home | 15.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.1% | 6.7% | Home | 23.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 0.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.9% | Road | 17.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 10.6% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 17.0% | 9.6% | Road | 22.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 3.8% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 18.8% | 10.6% | Home | 18.9% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.5% | Home | 20.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 6.5% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 18.5% | 6.9% | Home | 19.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 9.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.7% | 9.1% | Road | 17.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 30.5% | 8.5% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.4% | Home | 20.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 3.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 6.2% | Road | 24.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.0% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 14.5% | 8.6% | Home | 15.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.9% | 8.9% | Road | 15.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 14.9% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.1% | 9.9% | Road | 24.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Luis Cessa | Yankees | L2 Years | 17.6% | 5.4% | Road | 16.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 7.9% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.7% | 6.4% | Home | 18.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 14.8% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.4% | Home | 19.8% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 1.9% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 16.9% | 8.1% | Road | 16.3% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 9.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.1% | 10.6% | Road | 18.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 17.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 9.7% | RH | 20.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.4% | 10.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.9% | 8.4% | RH | 25.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 9.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 9.3% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.9% |
| Angels | Home | 18.2% | 7.6% | LH | 19.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 5.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.5% | 8.0% | RH | 24.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 32.3% | 9.5% |
| Astros | Home | 16.8% | 7.8% | RH | 17.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 13.9% | 8.6% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 8.7% | LH | 20.7% | 10.1% | L7Days | 28.3% | 5.7% |
| Braves | Road | 19.2% | 7.5% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.1% | 5.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.7% | 8.7% | RH | 24.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.4% | 8.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.6% | 6.5% | LH | 25.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.5% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.6% | LH | 25.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 27.9% | 10.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.9% | 8.8% | RH | 22.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.8% | 9.5% | RH | 22.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.4% |
| Rays | Road | 26.2% | 9.1% | RH | 24.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.9% | 10.9% | RH | 23.2% | 10.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 16.6% |
| Reds | Home | 21.5% | 8.7% | RH | 20.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.2% | 10.0% | RH | 22.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.4% | 9.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.1% | 9.2% | LH | 21.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 11.5% |
| Mets | Road | 20.1% | 9.3% | RH | 19.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.3% | 10.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 9.6% | RH | 18.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.0% | 9.3% | RH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.1% | 8.0% | RH | 23.0% | 6.3% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.2% | 6.4% | RH | 21.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.2% | 8.6% | LH | 21.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.0% | 8.0% | RH | 20.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.0% | 8.2% | RH | 20.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 2017 | 30.0% | 7.1% | 11.7% | Road | 34.8% | 11.0% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 2017 | 31.2% | 3.0% | 5.4% | Home | 28.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 35.5% | 13.2% | 19.5% | 2017 | 40.4% | 9.3% | 24.8% | Road | 34.5% | 17.9% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 9.1% | 27.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 2017 | 29.2% | 17.7% | 4.3% | Road | 27.7% | 13.7% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.9% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 2017 | 32.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | Home | 27.6% | 11.3% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -2.2% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 37.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 2017 | 37.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | Road | 36.1% | 18.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 2017 | 32.0% | 17.5% | 11.6% | Home | 35.5% | 16.2% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 13.3% | 28.2% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 40.8% | 19.0% | 25.0% | 2017 | 40.8% | 19.0% | 25.0% | Home | 42.2% | 16.0% | 31.1% | L14 Days | 48.2% | 14.3% | 18.6% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.1% | 16.5% | 2017 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | Home | 37.5% | 20.0% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 17.8% | 12.1% | Home | 32.7% | 12.6% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 12.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.1% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 2017 | 27.0% | 14.3% | 3.8% | Road | 28.7% | 13.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 30.0% | 15.6% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 44.2% | 14.6% | 28.4% | 2017 | 44.2% | 14.6% | 28.4% | Road | 37.7% | 19.2% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 14.3% | 27.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.3% | 17.8% | 15.4% | 2017 | 32.4% | 18.9% | 5.4% | Home | 32.6% | 19.6% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 33.3% | 12.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.3% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 2017 | 27.3% | 13.9% | 4.0% | Home | 31.8% | 12.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 11.1% | -18.7% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.9% | 16.5% | 15.0% | 2017 | 38.7% | 16.9% | 23.4% | Home | 32.0% | 16.4% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 2017 | 30.7% | 11.0% | 8.5% | Road | 32.3% | 13.3% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 16.7% | -17.2% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 2017 | 35.3% | 17.9% | 13.6% | Home | 30.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 11.8% | 6.9% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2017 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 4.1% | Road | 27.2% | 15.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 23.1% | -2.7% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.7% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 2017 | 31.2% | 10.5% | 12.2% | Home | 32.2% | 11.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 0.0% | 25.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 2017 | 38.2% | 16.9% | 23.5% | Road | 33.2% | 13.1% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 23.1% | 20.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 2017 | 29.6% | 20.5% | 9.9% | Road | 35.9% | 23.6% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 40.0% | 2.7% |
| Luis Cessa | Yankees | L2 Years | 33.3% | 20.7% | 17.6% | 2017 | 30.3% | 30.0% | 18.2% | Road | 26.5% | 14.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 25.0% | 9.1% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.8% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 2017 | 26.2% | 4.9% | 9.6% | Home | 32.6% | 8.1% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.7% | 16.4% | 20.0% | 2017 | 34.7% | 17.2% | 18.9% | Home | 39.5% | 16.1% | 26.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.3% | 11.9% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 35.6% | 10.0% | 17.4% | 2017 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 4.8% | Road | 32.6% | 4.7% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 15.4% | 4.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 2017 | 35.1% | 22.2% | 19.0% | Road | 32.0% | 12.4% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 26.7% | 27.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Home | 31.2% | 12.3% | 14.4% | RH | 33.8% | 12.4% | 17.8% | L7Days | 32.2% | 2.9% | 15.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.6% | 12.9% | 18.2% | RH | 34.9% | 15.4% | 18.4% | L7Days | 41.3% | 24.1% | 23.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | RH | 29.9% | 10.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.7% | 5.3% |
| Angels | Home | 28.5% | 13.7% | 10.0% | LH | 30.7% | 8.6% | 14.0% | L7Days | 28.3% | 5.9% | 10.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 32.1% | 16.5% | 11.4% | RH | 34.1% | 17.2% | 14.2% | L7Days | 42.0% | 29.8% | 23.3% |
| Astros | Home | 29.9% | 15.9% | 12.0% | RH | 32.9% | 15.7% | 15.7% | L7Days | 37.2% | 14.5% | 17.5% |
| Twins | Road | 31.3% | 13.5% | 13.9% | LH | 30.3% | 9.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 28.2% | 12.5% | 9.8% |
| Braves | Road | 31.8% | 12.3% | 13.7% | RH | 30.9% | 11.7% | 12.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 11.3% | -1.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 17.4% | 11.5% | RH | 33.4% | 19.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 31.9% | 18.0% | 15.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.7% | 13.6% | 15.4% | LH | 35.3% | 13.5% | 16.3% | L7Days | 40.3% | 13.0% | 21.5% |
| Padres | Home | 27.7% | 12.7% | 5.1% | LH | 30.3% | 11.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.7% | -2.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 48.7% | 14.0% | 35.3% | RH | 42.5% | 12.2% | 27.2% | L7Days | 45.2% | 11.3% | 25.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.5% | 13.3% | 13.4% | RH | 32.1% | 18.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 30.9% | 13.1% | 10.5% |
| Rays | Road | 34.9% | 17.3% | 15.8% | RH | 37.1% | 18.8% | 20.0% | L7Days | 39.4% | 14.0% | 20.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.8% | 12.7% | 16.9% | RH | 34.9% | 15.3% | 19.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| Reds | Home | 29.5% | 16.6% | 8.3% | RH | 29.7% | 14.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 33.3% | 13.4% | 14.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.8% | 12.9% | 7.6% | RH | 29.8% | 13.3% | 11.4% | L7Days | 28.2% | 9.2% | 4.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.3% | 15.4% | 15.9% | LH | 31.0% | 17.5% | 11.4% | L7Days | 32.4% | 14.9% | 17.6% |
| Mets | Road | 37.6% | 16.8% | 20.3% | RH | 35.8% | 13.7% | 18.7% | L7Days | 37.6% | 15.9% | 21.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 37.3% | 8.7% | 20.0% | RH | 36.0% | 10.8% | 18.6% | L7Days | 32.5% | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.0% | 16.7% | 25.9% | RH | 36.4% | 15.7% | 19.5% | L7Days | 32.4% | 9.3% | 15.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.7% | 12.5% | 7.8% | RH | 31.2% | 13.0% | 12.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 15.7% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Road | 32.2% | 15.2% | 13.1% | RH | 32.6% | 12.2% | 13.4% | L7Days | 30.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 13.9% | 15.6% | LH | 32.6% | 8.4% | 15.4% | L7Days | 31.6% | 12.1% | 10.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.9% | 15.6% | 9.8% | RH | 31.3% | 14.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 29.5% | 10.5% | 1.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.1% | 14.6% | 11.2% | RH | 31.4% | 15.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 28.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.96 | 12.5% | 4.2% | 2.98 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 35.7% | 14.1% | 2.53 | 35.0% | 13.1% | 2.67 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 29.2% | 13.0% | 2.25 | 28.4% | 13.3% | 2.14 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 29.2% | 12.7% | 2.30 | 35.2% | 13.8% | 2.55 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 32.4% | 14.7% | 2.20 | 40.3% | 18.2% | 2.21 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 17.1% | 10.6% | 1.61 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 1.61 |
| David Price | BOS | 19.3% | 10.3% | 1.87 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 1.87 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 32.3% | 14.0% | 2.31 | 30.9% | 14.4% | 2.15 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.36 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.36 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 26.1% | 10.6% | 2.46 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.24 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 17.3% | 11.3% | 1.53 | 19.1% | 13.4% | 1.43 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 16.4% | 10.8% | 1.52 |
| James Shields | CHW | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 1.80 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 21.3% | 8.3% | 2.57 | 23.9% | 8.0% | 2.99 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 20.1% | 9.8% | 2.05 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 1.89 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 24.5% | 11.1% | 2.21 | 27.9% | 13.8% | 2.02 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.08 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 1.96 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.24 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 2.35 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 14.7% | 8.6% | 1.71 | 14.7% | 10.3% | 1.43 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.5% | 9.6% | 1.51 | 15.1% | 8.8% | 1.72 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 22.3% | 9.5% | 2.35 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 2.26 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 25.5% | 10.8% | 2.36 | 31.6% | 12.6% | 2.51 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 18.6% | 10.0% | 1.86 | 16.2% | 11.1% | 1.46 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 18.8% | 10.1% | 1.86 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 1.96 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 15.5% | 6.7% | 2.31 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 2.31 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 18.0% | 7.6% | 2.37 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 2.17 |
Jaime Garcia does have a career 10.2 SwStr%, which is a bit better than I expected, which has resulted in just a 1.86 K/SwStr. He’s even exceeded his 11.2% this year twice, but his mark this year would still suggest something of a league average rate, possibly higher considering he’s been above 12% in four straight starts.
Jameson Taillon had a sub-7% SwStr rate in his first two starts back, but 11.5% in his most recent. His 8.3 SwStr% this year though is the same as it was last year. It could keep him at somewhat of a league average strikeout rate though, which is enough to be useful if he continues to manage contact well in that park.
J.C. Ramirez had a 27.9 K% in April, 12.1 K% in May and now a 21.6 K% in June. While he increased his sinker usage from April to May, that increase has held in June. The only alterations for this month have been a reintroduction of his four-seam fastball, which he seemed to bail on in May, but he’s still just throwing it 13.5% of the time and a reduction in curveballs (16.9% – 19% – 12.5%). The pitch got 12.5% whiffs in April, but less than half that since. The strange thing is that his slider, which he’s thrown above 30% of the time in every month, dipped in whiff rate (11.8%) in May, but has jumped back up to 20% June (as it was in April). There’s really no explanation for that. He’s getting a very good Dodger offense against RHP and adding a DH tonight, but in a pitcher friendly park. The good news is that a big part of the Dodgers’ success is their double digit walk rate, but that’s not been an issue for him.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.5 | 5.76 | 2.26 | 5.42 | 1.92 | 4.55 | 1.05 | 6.28 | 2.78 | 5.29 | 4.68 | -0.61 | 4.67 | -0.62 | 3.43 | -1.86 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 2.82 | 3.38 | 0.56 | 3.25 | 0.43 | 2.22 | -0.6 | 3.56 | 0.74 | 4.5 | 3.41 | -1.09 | 3.1 | -1.4 | 2.31 | -2.19 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.88 | 3.48 | -0.4 | 3.42 | -0.46 | 2.88 | -1 | 2.28 | -1.60 | 4.5 | 3.35 | -1.15 | 3.23 | -1.27 | 2.83 | -1.67 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.47 | 3.09 | 0.62 | 2.95 | 0.48 | 3.4 | 0.93 | 2.80 | 0.33 | 2.7 | 2.76 | 0.06 | 2.66 | -0.04 | 3.89 | 1.19 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.24 | 2.99 | -0.25 | 2.81 | -0.43 | 2.66 | -0.58 | 2.35 | -0.89 | 1.29 | 1.96 | 0.67 | 1.69 | 0.4 | 0.77 | -0.52 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 4.5 | 4.07 | -0.43 | 3.8 | -0.7 | 4.45 | -0.05 | 6.22 | 1.72 | 4.5 | 4.07 | -0.43 | 3.8 | -0.7 | 4.45 | -0.05 |
| David Price | BOS | 4.76 | 4.91 | 0.15 | 5.12 | 0.36 | 5.7 | 0.94 | 5.26 | 0.50 | 4.76 | 4.91 | 0.15 | 5.12 | 0.36 | 5.7 | 0.94 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 6.6 | 3.35 | -3.25 | 4.04 | -2.56 | 5.01 | -1.59 | 4.19 | -2.41 | 7.56 | 3.46 | -4.1 | 4.26 | -3.3 | 5.26 | -2.3 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 43.2 | 6.62 | -36.58 | 6.14 | -37.06 | 6.14 | -37.06 | 10.95 | -32.25 | 43.2 | 6.73 | -36.47 | 6.14 | -37.06 | 6.14 | -37.06 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.83 | 3.34 | -0.49 | 3.22 | -0.61 | 3.74 | -0.09 | 3.74 | -0.09 | 3.45 | 3.74 | 0.29 | 3.59 | 0.14 | 3.66 | 0.21 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 4.03 | 4.67 | 0.64 | 4.34 | 0.31 | 4.39 | 0.36 | 4.85 | 0.82 | 4.83 | 4.1 | -0.73 | 3.75 | -1.08 | 4.15 | -0.68 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 4.97 | 5.19 | 0.22 | 5.84 | 0.87 | 6 | 1.03 | 5.64 | 4.83 | -0.81 | 5.6 | -0.04 | 6.45 | 0.81 | ||
| James Shields | CHW | 4.26 | 5.16 | 0.9 | 5.75 | 1.49 | 6.73 | 2.47 | 5.70 | 1.44 | 9.35 | 5 | -4.35 | 5.84 | -3.51 | 9.37 | 0.02 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.33 | 4.15 | 0.82 | 3.77 | 0.44 | 3.78 | 0.45 | 3.82 | 0.49 | 3.38 | 3.85 | 0.47 | 3.42 | 0.04 | 2.89 | -0.49 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.38 | 4.18 | -0.2 | 4.09 | -0.29 | 4.48 | 0.1 | 3.84 | -0.54 | 6.84 | 4.08 | -2.76 | 4.25 | -2.59 | 5.58 | -1.26 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.5 | 3.66 | 0.16 | 3.49 | -0.01 | 3.19 | -0.31 | 3.63 | 0.13 | 2.94 | 3.02 | 0.08 | 2.79 | -0.15 | 2.66 | -0.28 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 5.4 | 4.14 | -1.26 | 4.11 | -1.29 | 4.75 | -0.65 | 5.44 | 0.04 | 4.66 | 4.1 | -0.56 | 4.07 | -0.59 | 4.28 | -0.38 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.83 | 3.89 | 0.06 | 3.69 | -0.14 | 3.71 | -0.12 | 3.19 | -0.64 | 3.77 | 3.76 | -0.01 | 3.55 | -0.22 | 3.98 | 0.21 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.33 | 5.29 | 1.96 | 5.57 | 2.24 | 5.04 | 1.71 | 5.87 | 2.54 | 3.62 | 5.17 | 1.55 | 5.26 | 1.64 | 4.86 | 1.24 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.23 | 5.39 | -0.84 | 5.19 | -1.04 | 5.6 | -0.63 | 7.24 | 1.01 | 4.13 | 5.14 | 1.01 | 4.83 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 0.77 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.86 | 4.51 | 0.65 | 4.63 | 0.77 | 5.54 | 1.68 | 5.39 | 1.53 | 5.96 | 4.94 | -1.02 | 5.12 | -0.84 | 7.15 | 1.19 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 6.57 | 3.72 | -2.85 | 3.7 | -2.87 | 5.41 | -1.16 | 4.01 | -2.56 | 7 | 3.26 | -3.74 | 3.39 | -3.61 | 4.69 | -2.31 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.29 | 4.28 | 0.99 | 4.07 | 0.78 | 3.07 | -0.22 | 2.89 | -0.40 | 5.04 | 4.63 | -0.41 | 4.15 | -0.89 | 2.86 | -2.18 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.89 | 4.26 | -0.63 | 4.16 | -0.73 | 4.63 | -0.26 | 6.17 | 1.28 | 4.24 | 3.69 | -0.55 | 3.66 | -0.58 | 4.12 | -0.12 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 3.72 | 5.13 | 1.41 | 4.98 | 1.26 | 4.38 | 0.66 | 5.96 | 2.24 | 3.72 | 5.13 | 1.41 | 4.98 | 1.26 | 4.38 | 0.66 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.26 | 5.08 | -2.18 | 5.05 | -2.21 | 6.26 | -1 | 7.37 | 0.11 | 9 | 4.64 | -4.36 | 4.83 | -4.17 | 6.55 | -2.45 |
Clayton Kershaw may have a .250 BABIP, but has just a .270 career rate and always has a great profile. The Dodger defense hasn’t been much worse either (.278). His 89.4 LOB% has helped cover for a 17.7 HR/FB though.
Dinelson Lamet has just a .265 BABIP to go with his 19.0 HR/FB and a ton of hard contact, but he’s struck out way to many batters for a completely unsustainable 48.5 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.290 | 0.293 | 0.003 | 49.8% | 0.197 | 4.3% | 93.7% | 86.8 | 3.90% | 3.00% | 230 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.012 | 44.1% | 0.204 | 9.1% | 76.7% | 86.7 | 1.10% | 0.50% | 93 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.293 | 0.318 | 0.025 | 42.5% | 0.213 | 11.3% | 82.0% | 89.4 | 5.90% | 3.70% | 270 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.278 | 0.250 | -0.028 | 45.3% | 0.199 | 12.5% | 83.4% | 85.7 | 7.50% | 5.00% | 281 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.304 | 0.299 | -0.005 | 48.3% | 0.19 | 10.5% | 81.5% | 86.7 | 5.70% | 3.50% | 174 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.298 | 0.264 | -0.034 | 49.1% | 0.218 | 0.0% | 88.8% | 87.2 | 8.90% | 7.10% | 56 |
| David Price | BOS | 0.313 | 0.250 | -0.063 | 40.8% | 0.204 | 12.5% | 87.9% | 85.4 | 10.70% | 7.30% | 103 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.298 | 0.265 | -0.033 | 28.9% | 0.158 | 4.8% | 81.5% | 89.2 | 18.40% | 10.80% | 76 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.291 | 0.600 | 0.309 | 44.4% | 0.556 | 0.0% | 90.5% | ||||
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.300 | 0.282 | -0.018 | 45.0% | 0.206 | 6.7% | 85.1% | 87.8 | 7.60% | 5.30% | 132 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.286 | 0.272 | -0.014 | 55.7% | 0.176 | 5.7% | 86.8% | 85.3 | 4.90% | 3.60% | 267 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 0.301 | 0.315 | 0.014 | 38.0% | 0.174 | 9.8% | 86.1% | ||||
| James Shields | CHW | 0.283 | 0.239 | -0.044 | 31.1% | 0.189 | 10.8% | 82.5% | 88 | 10.80% | 7.00% | 74 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.305 | 0.317 | 0.012 | 52.4% | 0.228 | 8.3% | 90.2% | 84.4 | 4.70% | 3.20% | 150 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.304 | 0.019 | 47.1% | 0.208 | 7.2% | 86.1% | 87.6 | 6.50% | 4.70% | 261 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.298 | 0.341 | 0.043 | 50.0% | 0.21 | 4.1% | 84.6% | 85.2 | 3.90% | 2.60% | 257 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.296 | 0.347 | 0.051 | 37.1% | 0.253 | 9.0% | 83.1% | 86.1 | 6.50% | 4.80% | 184 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.285 | 0.304 | 0.019 | 48.3% | 0.19 | 4.7% | 84.5% | 85.4 | 4.80% | 3.30% | 269 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.290 | 0.245 | -0.045 | 41.5% | 0.189 | 11.6% | 88.7% | 85.5 | 9.00% | 6.70% | 221 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.290 | 0.350 | 0.06 | 49.3% | 0.215 | 3.1% | 89.8% | 88 | 7.60% | 5.60% | 225 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.293 | 0.219 | -0.074 | 43.5% | 0.183 | 6.8% | 79.6% | 86.6 | 7.30% | 4.80% | 233 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 0.286 | 0.300 | 0.014 | 45.5% | 0.242 | 0.0% | 87.3% | 91.9 | 9.10% | 5.90% | 33 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.311 | 0.287 | -0.024 | 50.0% | 0.211 | 12.3% | 86.6% | 85.3 | 4.20% | 3.10% | 283 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.048 | 51.2% | 0.18 | 11.5% | 87.3% | 89.3 | 7.70% | 5.70% | 286 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.316 | 0.295 | -0.021 | 40.3% | 0.258 | 4.8% | 92.4% | 85.7 | 6.30% | 4.80% | 63 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.315 | 0.287 | -0.028 | 44.9% | 0.203 | 9.7% | 88.4% | 88.2 | 8.10% | 5.70% | 211 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) should be able to resolve his HR issues and is in a great spot to do so tonight, while he’s striking out batters at an elite rate again. He’s easily the most expensive pitcher on the board, $2K more than Archer, but the return to an elite strikeout rate gives him a high floor to go with the enormous ceiling.
Dinelson Lamet (3) has some significant contact issues, but opposing batters aren’t making it all that much. He has shown the strikeout upside to hang with any pitcher on the slate with a much lower cost to compensate for potential issues. He could either skyrocket or torpedo your GPP lineup tonight.
Value Tier Two
J.A. Happ (4) has the best peripherals of his career and is facing an offense with an 18.7 K-BB% vs LHP for less than $9K.
Chris Archer (2) has struggled with hard contact in recent starts, but he’s still missing bats and getting through at least six innings. He’s also in a good spot to remedy that hard contact situation in Pittsburgh tonight, though it may lower his strikeout upside just a bit.
Value Tier Three
Jimmy Nelson is confusing. The stuff and underlying numbers look great, but the run prevention has been hit or miss. Three starts back he didn’t even last six innings with only four strikeouts in St Louis, but we love those peripherals. He’s dominated LHBs with strikeouts and RHBs with contact. He could find himself in trouble in a not entirely favorable spot, but still costs just a bit above $8.5K.
Luis Cessa has had some contact issues in a small sample, but has shown some swing and miss too and faces a team with a poor performance history against RHP this year at a low cost. Consider him for an SP2 role on DraftKings, but toss him for nearly $2K more on FanDuel.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jaime Garcia has struggled through his last two starts, but overall contact management has been fine this year with an elite GB rate and nearly an elite SwStr% recently. He should be in line for a few more strikeouts and could find them in San Diego tonight.
Jameson Taillon doesn’t show a ton of upside with his SwStr rate, but will play in a favorable park if he continues to manage contact the way he has since returning and should probably even see a few more strikeouts against the Rays.
J.C. Ramirez is probably SP2 on DK material only for $1.6K less than his FD cost. He’s not in a great spot, but a favorable park could help neutralize a strong offense. His work over the last month has been inconsistent from a run prevention standpoint, but he’s missing bats again, though it’s difficult to figure out why in a small amount of time.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window