Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, May 4th
Happy Star Wars Day! May the fourth be with you…because you’re going to need some super-natural powerful force to get through tonight’s slate. There aren’t going to be too many pitching boards uglier than this one. Dan Straily is your top priced pitcher and guys we omitted last night might be your top pitchers tonight a day after being rained out. On top of that, Kyle Kendrick is pitching for the Red Sox. He either didn’t pitch in the league last year or he was so bad that nobody’s willing to reveal his stats. We don’t even currently know who’ll be opposing him either because the Orioles decided to deploy tonight’s original starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, out of the bullpen last night. Hmm…it must have been some kind of post-season elimination game where Buck didn’t want to use his Closer instead. Let’s get on with this mess.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | -1.6 | 4.52 | 5.16 | 28.8% | 0.94 | 4.96 | HOU | 122 | 128 | 146 | |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -16.6 | 4.22 | 5.87 | 44.4% | 0.98 | 3.78 | 2.38 | MIL | 106 | 89 | 80 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -0.9 | 5.08 | 4. | 39.3% | 0.89 | 5.7 | 6.35 | SEA | 130 | 113 | 96 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 5.5 | 4.47 | 5.4 | 34.1% | 0.89 | 4.19 | 3.4 | ANA | 77 | 106 | 113 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | -8.1 | 5.2 | 5.65 | 42.8% | 1.01 | 4.26 | WAS | 126 | 117 | 159 | |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -11.5 | 4.51 | 5.33 | 38.5% | 0.98 | 4.61 | 4.76 | STL | 97 | 101 | 136 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 7 | 4.58 | 5.75 | 33.4% | 0.96 | 4.6 | 2.12 | TAM | 126 | 110 | 94 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -10.8 | 3.63 | 5.83 | 45.1% | 0.98 | 3.71 | 3.84 | DET | 111 | 117 | 93 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.5 | 4.83 | 5.65 | 38.9% | 1.06 | 5.57 | 4.6 | KAN | 82 | 43 | 101 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 7.6 | 3.97 | 5.88 | 35.6% | 1.06 | 4.64 | 4.73 | CHW | 72 | 65 | 85 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -7.2 | 4.01 | 5.79 | 51.7% | 1.02 | 3.48 | 2.76 | CIN | 81 | 97 | 108 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 5.1 | 3.87 | 5.89 | 57.2% | 1 | 3.58 | 4.75 | NYM | 121 | 103 | 138 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -6.5 | 4.55 | 5.61 | 38.4% | 1.04 | 4.25 | 5.1 | MIN | 109 | 118 | 145 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | -2.4 | 4.14 | 5.67 | 43.2% | 0.94 | 4.08 | 4 | TEX | 81 | 99 | 89 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 2.2 | 3.81 | 6.52 | 43.8% | 0.96 | 3.9 | 3.82 | PHI | 82 | 92 | 95 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -1.3 | 4.39 | 5.44 | 66.3% | 0.91 | 5.08 | 3.93 | SDG | 78 | 59 | 75 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 12.2 | 4.35 | 5.86 | 51.0% | 1.04 | 4.22 | 5.93 | OAK | 77 | 97 | 68 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | 0 | 5.09 | 5.19 | 37.6% | 1.13 | BAL | 96 | 96 | 80 | ||
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 1.3 | 3.96 | 5.79 | 59.7% | 0.91 | 4.36 | 3.15 | COL | 75 | 76 | 63 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 7.7 | 3.97 | 5.37 | 44.0% | 0.96 | 3.99 | 4.91 | MIA | 91 | 87 | 81 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -8.9 | 2.85 | 6.79 | 33.9% | 1.01 | 3.01 | 3.24 | ARI | 68 | 105 | 89 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 6.6 | 4.03 | 6.13 | 48.1% | 0.98 | 4.16 | 4.02 | CLE | 96 | 121 | 87 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | -4.3 | 5.08 | 5. | 40.2% | 1.13 | 5.62 | BOS | 98 | 97 | 91 | |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 13.6 | 4.62 | 5.4 | 36.5% | 1.02 | 5.15 | 4.03 | PIT | 88 | 88 | 122 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 13 | 5.2 | 5.86 | 0.379 | 0.96 | 5.43 | 4.1 | CHC | 98 | 95 | 105 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -4.7 | 3.92 | 5.22 | 0.507 | 1 | 3.4 | 4.41 | ATL | 100 | 99 | 127 |
Adam Wainwright accumulated over one-third of his strikeouts in his outing against the Brewers two starts back. He’s allowed at least four runs with four strikeouts or fewer in three of his other four starts. Of course, earned runs aren’t what we most value here. While his ERA estimators are quite a bit better, there’s some incredibly conflicting information between his 18.8 Hard-Soft% and his 85.1 mph aEV (4.7% Barrels/BBE). The Brewers like to do two things – they destroy baseballs (22.3 HR/FB on the road, 21.2 HR/FB vs RHP) and they strike out (25.7% vs RHP).
Dan Straily struck out 14 Padres two starts back. He has an additional 15 strikeouts over his other four starts to go along with 12 walks. While his SwStr% has been up and down and hard hit rate more consistent, he’s had one great game and a lot of “meh”. The Rays have been quite the surprise offensively this season, but one thing that hasn’t shocked anyone is their high strikeout rate (25.7% vs RHP). This is what we’re banking on today. Tampa Bay has a 95 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers, though just a two percent decrease from their overall offensive output.
Matt Andriese has struck out either four or five in every start this year, but has had a SwStr% slightly above average each of the last two seasons now. However, this year, his walk rate has nearly doubled to something around league average, while he’s already allowed six HRs (41.4 Hard%). The good news is that the Marlins don’t accept walks (5.8% vs RHP), which should save him a few pitches and hopefully generate fewer base-runners. He might be in the overall top spot on the night slate.
Zack Wheeler walked four batters in his last start. He previously had not walked more than two, but struggled with his control and command often pre-surgery, so this is where he was expected to have issues coming off a two year layoff. Due to a 63.8 LOB% and some shoddy bullpen work with inherited runners, his ERA looks worse than his estimators. He’s a quality arm when he commands the breaking stuff and may actually be the Mets second best active starter at this point. This would be the guy we’d like to use today. He has the second best strikeout rate on the night slate, but the Braves aren’t a bad offense and strike out a bit less than average.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Chase Anderson (.259 – 76% – 3.2) has generated a weak enough exit velocity (83.8 mph, 3.5% Barrels/BBE) despite his league average hard hit rate, that I’d be almost willing to concede the low BABIP despite the poor defense behind him. He’s also missing bats at a league average rate, but he’s had more trouble with RHBs than LHBs throughout his career. Though his wOBA is lower against them this year, the peripherals tell a different story. Despite Monday night’s lack of offensive output, the Cardinals are one of the hotter offenses in the league (5.0 K-BB% over the last week). He’s also averaged just 5.1 innings over the last two calendar years, a bit difficult to pay more than $7K for. He’s gone more than six innings just once this year. I’m really looking hard for reasons today because I’d hate to give up on a guy with a double digit SwStr% on this slate, but there’s nothing else I can find that projects value out of him. For some reason, the numbers really hate him today. This is the pitcher I’m most prepared to be wrong about tonight.
Jaime Garcia (.242 – 75.6% – 12.5) has a 56.1 career GB%. It’s below average this year without a significant change in pitch mix or velocity. The Mets offense has been heating up as it’s now the pitching that’s a problem.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ariel Miranda has pitched better at home (17.2 K-BB% since last season) than on the road, but the difference shouldn’t be so stark because it’s not like the other AL West parks are difficult. He’s a bit of a HR machine either way (10 in 50 innings at home). The Angels have just a 4.0 HR/FB vs LHP, but are predominantly RH and though he has kept RHBs to a wOBA over 40 points lower than LHBs, he’s surrendered 17 of his 18 career HRs to them. If we’re dealing with a potential hard contact generator against a contact prone offense (6.8 K-BB% vs LHP), it’s difficult to find enough upside beyond the risk for more than $7K.
Alex Meyer was the fifth ranked prospect for the Angels via Fangraphs this season, but with just a 40 grade because that system has forever been a wasteland. He’s 27 and missed most of last year due to injury. You don’t see many 27 year-olds on prospect lists, so despite the raw stuff (which probably plays better in the bullpen with just the fastball and slider), he’s unlikely to figure out how to become a strike throwing machine at this age. He walked more Blue Jays than he struck out in his first start, generating just three swings and misses. The one thing that may be in his favor, if we can call him a power pitcher bringing it at over 95 mph (though Baseball Reference defines it by strikeouts and walks), the Mariners drop 39% of their overall offense with a 77 sOPS+ vs power arms.
Kyle Kendrick has allowed seven HRs in 27 AAA innings this year. He allowed 13 in 93 for the Angels last year. His FIP has been well above four and a half at both stops. Apparently, that’s the how desperate the Red Sox are right now.
I have Mike Wright listed for the Orioles. They used their starter out of the pen last night and just named a new one as I type this. It’s Tyler Wilson. What’s the difference? Who cares? They’re facing Boston (17.2 K% vs RHP). You’re not using either one of them. I was more concerned that I got the pitcher handedness right, so all of the Boston stats still fit.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.6% | 8.8% | Road | 22.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.9% | Home | 19.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 2.0% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 23.5% | 16.1% | Road | 25.0% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 23.5% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.9% | 7.3% | Home | 22.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 5.4% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 14.1% | 9.2% | Road | 19.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.3% | Road | 18.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.1% | 9.6% | Road | 22.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 6.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.7% | 9.0% | Road | 29.0% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 12.0% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.9% | 7.7% | Road | 14.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.0% | Home | 23.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.2% | 5.0% | Road | 18.9% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 1.9% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.3% | Home | 20.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 12.2% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.8% | Road | 19.6% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.2% | Home | 23.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 4.1% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.5% | Home | 23.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 13.2% | 9.9% | Road | 10.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.4% | 8.1% | Home | 15.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 12.5% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Red Sox | L2 Years | 12.4% | 6.8% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.1% | 6.8% | Home | 13.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 20.0% | 5.7% | Home | 21.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.3% | 5.2% | Home | 33.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 3.6% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.6% | Home | 20.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | L2 Years | 14.3% | 8.3% | Road | 14.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 17.8% | 6.6% | Home | 20.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 12.2% | 5.8% | Road | 11.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 22.5% | 9.0% | Road | 18.6% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 12.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 17.3% | 6.7% | RH | 18.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 6.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.1% | 7.6% | RH | 25.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.8% | 10.5% | RH | 21.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 22.7% | 8.8% | LH | 17.8% | 11.2% | L7Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.3% | 9.1% | RH | 19.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.1% | 10.6% | RH | 20.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.4% | 12.4% |
| Rays | Home | 23.5% | 9.7% | RH | 25.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 27.4% | 15.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.4% | 9.8% | RH | 21.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.0% |
| Royals | Home | 17.8% | 7.2% | LH | 22.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.8% | 6.0% | RH | 25.4% | 6.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.8% |
| Reds | Home | 22.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.2% |
| Mets | Road | 18.8% | 9.7% | LH | 18.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 14.9% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Home | 20.7% | 12.7% | RH | 20.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.4% | 8.4% | RH | 23.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 34.1% | 8.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.0% | 8.0% | RH | 24.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.5% |
| Padres | Home | 22.7% | 8.2% | LH | 22.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.2% | 8.4% | RH | 24.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 26.4% | 8.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.3% | 6.5% | RH | 21.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 26.0% | 7.3% | RH | 21.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 5.6% | RH | 20.3% | 5.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 27.2% | 9.1% | RH | 24.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.1% |
| Indians | Road | 18.9% | 10.0% | RH | 21.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.4% | 8.5% | RH | 17.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 15.8% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 17.2% | 10.0% | RH | 16.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 15.9% | 14.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.6% | 10.2% | RH | 21.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.0% |
| Braves | Home | 18.5% | 9.0% | RH | 19.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 39.2% | 16.6% | 20.9% | 2017 | 48.7% | 14.3% | 28.2% | Road | 38.9% | 15.0% | 17.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 2017 | 36.5% | 14.3% | 18.8% | Home | 30.7% | 5.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 16.7% | 11.4% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 34.4% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 2017 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -40.0% | Road | 34.5% | 6.7% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -40.0% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.7% | 15.1% | 15.3% | 2017 | 29.5% | 18.8% | 6.4% | Home | 37.2% | 15.4% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 23.1% | 16.0% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.2% | 18.2% | 26.1% | 2017 | Road | 37.5% | 20.9% | 24.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 2017 | 31.4% | 3.2% | 10.5% | Road | 35.4% | 15.2% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.7% | 16.1% | 2017 | 34.4% | 10.0% | 11.0% | Road | 31.4% | 15.2% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 7.7% | 11.5% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 2017 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 7.3% | Road | 30.9% | 11.0% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 13.3% | 3.5% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.4% | 11.6% | 18.9% | 2017 | 42.4% | 7.9% | 28.3% | Road | 34.8% | 11.7% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 6.7% | 27.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.3% | 13.4% | 19.3% | 2017 | 36.7% | 7.9% | 19.0% | Home | 40.0% | 9.9% | 23.4% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.2% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 2017 | 30.3% | 6.7% | 13.8% | Road | 35.4% | 16.0% | 20.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 8.3% | 20.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.8% | 14.7% | 9.3% | 2017 | 33.7% | 12.5% | 5.3% | Home | 32.4% | 25.0% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | -6.1% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 2017 | 30.3% | 2.9% | 7.8% | Road | 31.4% | 3.7% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 5.9% | 15.4% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 32.4% | 14.1% | 14.4% | 2017 | 27.8% | 14.7% | 10.0% | Home | 30.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 12.5% | 19.5% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.9% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 2017 | 36.3% | 23.3% | 22.0% | Home | 32.2% | 13.2% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 25.0% | 35.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 2017 | 30.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | Road | 33.3% | 0.0% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 0.0% | 4.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 2017 | 35.4% | 23.1% | 18.3% | Home | 30.6% | 18.9% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 51.6% | 20.0% | 45.1% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.2% | 15.5% | 20.9% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 32.9% | 20.9% | 16.3% | 2017 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 7.5% | Home | 33.2% | 19.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 34.4% | 12.6% | 16.3% | 2017 | 41.4% | 20.7% | 23.0% | Home | 36.3% | 12.2% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 23.1% | 13.5% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 2017 | 18.3% | 9.3% | -3.7% | Home | 26.9% | 10.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 18.2% | 10.6% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.9% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2017 | 33.7% | 15.4% | 19.7% | Home | 32.9% | 10.7% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 2017 | Road | 41.6% | 9.5% | 25.8% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 37.2% | 15.5% | 24.8% | 2017 | 46.5% | 23.8% | 41.8% | Home | 34.7% | 17.5% | 22.1% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 26.7% | 44.1% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 34.1% | 13.4% | 17.2% | 2017 | 37.5% | 13.0% | 23.2% | Road | 38.4% | 14.5% | 22.6% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 20.0% | 28.6% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 28.0% | 13.6% | 5.3% | 2017 | 28.0% | 13.6% | 5.3% | Road | 13.3% | 0.0% | -6.7% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 27.9% | 16.8% | 7.8% | RH | 31.6% | 14.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 26.0% | 15.5% | 3.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.4% | 22.3% | 11.3% | RH | 33.6% | 21.2% | 13.7% | L7Days | 34.1% | 18.4% | 14.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | RH | 30.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 28.6% | 12.3% | 16.5% |
| Angels | Road | 30.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | LH | 29.0% | 4.0% | 16.0% | L7Days | 32.9% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 33.0% | 16.3% | 17.9% | RH | 30.8% | 14.5% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.9% | 23.3% | 25.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 27.1% | 11.6% | 6.8% | RH | 29.3% | 13.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 15.8% | 8.3% |
| Rays | Home | 35.6% | 13.7% | 15.0% | RH | 33.6% | 15.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 30.4% | 12.8% | 5.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.4% | 10.7% | 34.7% | RH | 45.2% | 11.8% | 29.0% | L7Days | 47.5% | 5.5% | 30.2% |
| Royals | Home | 29.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | LH | 24.3% | 6.0% | 0.6% | L7Days | 34.7% | 10.3% | 15.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.5% | 11.9% | 8.5% | RH | 25.1% | 11.0% | 5.6% | L7Days | 28.6% | 13.8% | 11.2% |
| Reds | Home | 29.2% | 14.8% | 7.1% | RH | 29.3% | 12.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 31.3% | 15.6% | 5.2% |
| Mets | Road | 36.2% | 16.1% | 17.8% | LH | 34.6% | 14.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 38.0% | 15.1% | 17.3% |
| Twins | Home | 33.5% | 11.4% | 15.5% | RH | 35.0% | 14.4% | 19.6% | L7Days | 34.3% | 23.7% | 16.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.2% | 13.3% | 8.5% | RH | 33.8% | 17.1% | 16.0% | L7Days | 34.4% | 22.0% | 18.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.8% | 13.2% | 9.4% | RH | 30.5% | 13.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 35.2% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
| Padres | Home | 25.9% | 15.5% | 4.1% | LH | 29.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 16.7% | 3.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 37.0% | 9.9% | 17.2% | RH | 35.0% | 14.0% | 17.6% | L7Days | 32.6% | 10.5% | 14.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.2% | 15.1% | 18.0% | RH | 30.7% | 13.5% | 11.5% | L7Days | 35.0% | 10.9% | 18.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 34.4% | 11.4% | 13.2% | RH | 32.3% | 12.6% | 11.7% | L7Days | 34.8% | 12.1% | 15.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.8% | 13.1% | 8.1% | RH | 30.0% | 13.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | RH | 34.8% | 15.7% | 19.3% | L7Days | 34.2% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| Indians | Road | 37.9% | 8.8% | 19.8% | RH | 34.6% | 12.6% | 17.3% | L7Days | 31.8% | 8.3% | 15.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 39.1% | 7.8% | 20.3% | RH | 38.6% | 7.5% | 20.2% | L7Days | 40.0% | 11.3% | 21.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.2% | 9.9% | 10.6% | RH | 28.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 33.1% | 12.5% | 15.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 26.3% | 11.5% | 7.7% | RH | 28.4% | 9.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 31.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| Braves | Home | 32.5% | 13.0% | 14.4% | RH | 31.6% | 12.0% | 13.4% | L7Days | 35.9% | 15.3% | 17.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 26.7% | 9.6% | 2.78 | 26.7% | 9.6% | 2.78 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 22.0% | 8.5% | 2.59 | 22.0% | 8.5% | 2.59 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 17.7% | 4.0% | 4.43 | 17.7% | 4.0% | 4.43 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 21.8% | 8.0% | 2.73 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 2.73 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | ||||||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 27.4% | 11.2% | 2.45 | 27.4% | 11.2% | 2.45 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 33.3% | 15.9% | 2.09 | 33.3% | 15.9% | 2.09 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.30 | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.30 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 23.1% | 9.8% | 2.36 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 2.36 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 16.5% | 6.9% | 2.39 | 16.5% | 6.9% | 2.39 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 13.5% | 9.4% | 1.44 | 13.5% | 9.4% | 1.44 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 15.5% | 8.4% | 1.85 | 15.5% | 8.4% | 1.85 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.48 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.48 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 13.2% | 5.6% | 2.36 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 2.36 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 12.2% | 9.8% | 1.24 | 12.2% | 9.8% | 1.24 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | ||||||
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.79 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.79 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 18.5% | 9.8% | 1.89 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 1.89 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 30.3% | 15.1% | 2.01 | 30.3% | 15.1% | 2.01 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 21.0% | 9.1% | 2.31 | 21.0% | 9.1% | 2.31 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | ||||||
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 24.2% | 11.9% | 2.03 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 2.03 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 15.3% | 5.1% | 3.00 | 15.3% | 5.1% | 3.00 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.21 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.21 |
There’s really nothing worth exploring on the night slate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 4.11 | 3.66 | -0.45 | 4.2 | 0.09 | 4.44 | 0.33 | 5.84 | 1.73 | 4.11 | 3.67 | -0.44 | 4.2 | 0.09 | 4.44 | 0.33 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 6.12 | 3.58 | -2.54 | 3.18 | -2.94 | 3.33 | -2.79 | 5.23 | -0.89 | 6.12 | 3.58 | -2.54 | 3.18 | -2.94 | 3.33 | -2.79 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 4.91 | 6.3 | 1.39 | 5.1 | 0.19 | 4.64 | -0.27 | 2.74 | -2.17 | 4.91 | 6.35 | 1.44 | 5.1 | 0.19 | 4.64 | -0.27 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 3.81 | 3.92 | 0.11 | 4.16 | 0.35 | 5.08 | 1.27 | 6.77 | 2.96 | 3.81 | 3.92 | 0.11 | 4.16 | 0.35 | 5.08 | 1.27 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | ||||||||||||||||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.1 | 4.25 | 2.15 | 4.15 | 2.05 | 2.84 | 0.74 | 5.14 | 3.04 | 2.1 | 4.25 | 2.15 | 4.15 | 2.05 | 2.84 | 0.74 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.15 | 3.91 | -0.24 | 4.22 | 0.07 | 3.78 | -0.37 | 2.53 | -1.62 | 4.15 | 3.91 | -0.24 | 4.22 | 0.07 | 3.78 | -0.37 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.34 | 3.25 | -1.09 | 3.39 | -0.95 | 3.11 | -1.23 | 1.67 | -2.67 | 4.34 | 3.25 | -1.09 | 3.39 | -0.95 | 3.11 | -1.23 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 2.17 | 4.66 | 2.49 | 4.97 | 2.8 | 4.11 | 1.94 | 4.20 | 2.03 | 2.17 | 4.66 | 2.49 | 4.97 | 2.8 | 4.11 | 1.94 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 2.3 | 4.43 | 2.13 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 3.81 | 1.51 | 4.62 | 2.32 | 2.3 | 4.43 | 2.13 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 3.81 | 1.51 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 1.5 | 3.61 | 2.11 | 3.35 | 1.85 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 3.69 | 2.19 | 1.5 | 3.61 | 2.11 | 3.35 | 1.85 | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 3.99 | 5.33 | 1.34 | 5.12 | 1.13 | 5.05 | 1.06 | 7.73 | 3.74 | 3.99 | 5.33 | 1.34 | 5.12 | 1.13 | 5.05 | 1.06 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5 | 5.11 | 0.11 | 5.23 | 0.23 | 3.53 | -1.47 | 6.47 | 1.47 | 5 | 5.11 | 0.11 | 5.23 | 0.23 | 3.53 | -1.47 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 4.88 | 4.51 | -0.37 | 4.57 | -0.31 | 4.85 | -0.03 | 9.38 | 4.50 | 4.88 | 4.52 | -0.36 | 4.57 | -0.31 | 4.85 | -0.03 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.1 | 3.69 | -1.41 | 3.59 | -1.51 | 4.94 | -0.16 | 5.59 | 0.49 | 5.1 | 3.69 | -1.41 | 3.59 | -1.51 | 4.94 | -0.16 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 2.93 | 4.38 | 1.45 | 4.34 | 1.41 | 3.84 | 0.91 | 4.72 | 1.79 | 2.93 | 4.39 | 1.46 | 4.34 | 1.41 | 3.84 | 0.91 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 8.06 | 5.27 | -2.79 | 5.41 | -2.65 | 6.95 | -1.11 | 6.97 | -1.09 | 8.06 | 5.27 | -2.79 | 5.41 | -2.65 | 6.95 | -1.11 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | ||||||||||||||||
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.96 | 3.18 | -1.78 | 3.26 | -1.7 | 3.13 | -1.83 | 5.27 | 0.31 | 4.96 | 3.19 | -1.77 | 3.26 | -1.7 | 3.13 | -1.83 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 3.86 | 4.42 | 0.56 | 4.25 | 0.39 | 5.29 | 1.43 | 4.06 | 0.20 | 3.86 | 4.42 | 0.56 | 4.25 | 0.39 | 5.29 | 1.43 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.94 | 3.17 | 0.23 | 3.67 | 0.73 | 3.07 | 0.13 | 1.80 | -1.14 | 2.94 | 3.17 | 0.23 | 3.67 | 0.73 | 3.07 | 0.13 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.19 | 3.99 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 0.71 | 4.17 | 0.98 | 2.12 | -1.07 | 3.19 | 3.99 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 0.71 | 4.17 | 0.98 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | ||||||||||||||||
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.7 | 3.47 | -1.23 | 4.14 | -0.56 | 6.07 | 1.37 | 7.88 | 3.18 | 4.7 | 3.48 | -1.22 | 4.14 | -0.56 | 6.07 | 1.37 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 1.89 | 4.44 | 2.55 | 4.68 | 2.79 | 4.69 | 2.8 | 3.42 | 1.53 | 1.89 | 4.44 | 2.55 | 4.68 | 2.79 | 4.69 | 2.8 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 4.78 | 3.92 | -0.86 | 3.77 | -1.01 | 3.84 | -0.94 | 5.89 | 1.11 | 4.78 | 3.92 | -0.86 | 3.77 | -1.01 | 3.84 | -0.94 |
Yes, we’re using all the guys with ERAs over four and punting all the lower ones. If you’re a first time reader, this doesn’t always happen, but we do like most of the lower estimators even if we can’t really find much of anyone above average tonight.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.273 | 0.167 | -0.106 | 25.6% | 0.205 | 23.8% | 82.4% | 88.2 | 12.80% | 8.30% | 39 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.311 | 0.439 | 0.128 | 47.6% | 0.268 | 4.8% | 90.0% | 85.1 | 4.70% | 3.40% | 85 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.280 | 0.200 | -0.08 | 70.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.305 | 0.264 | -0.041 | 40.8% | 0.171 | 15.6% | 87.9% | 87.6 | 9.00% | 6.40% | 78 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 0.298 | ||||||||||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.316 | 0.259 | -0.057 | 40.0% | 0.213 | 12.9% | 82.6% | 83.8 | 3.50% | 2.50% | 86 |
| Dan Straily | FLA | 0.274 | 0.230 | -0.044 | 38.7% | 0.129 | 23.3% | 86.6% | 86.6 | 6.30% | 3.80% | 64 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.318 | 0.354 | 0.036 | 31.8% | 0.258 | 17.9% | 76.5% | 86.9 | 8.80% | 4.80% | 68 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.260 | 0.229 | -0.031 | 35.3% | 0.2 | 7.9% | 90.7% | 90.9 | 7.10% | 4.90% | 85 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.281 | 0.184 | -0.097 | 40.5% | 0.114 | 7.9% | 80.3% | 89.7 | 7.60% | 5.00% | 79 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.298 | 0.224 | -0.074 | 51.0% | 0.202 | 10.0% | 93.7% | 86.8 | 5.50% | 4.50% | 109 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.286 | 0.242 | -0.044 | 43.6% | 0.223 | 12.5% | 90.8% | 85.7 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 95 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.274 | 0.333 | 0.059 | 39.1% | 0.207 | 14.3% | 85.5% | 85.6 | 1.10% | 0.80% | 89 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.276 | 0.291 | 0.015 | 42.7% | 0.191 | 11.8% | 86.5% | 86.4 | 3.30% | 2.50% | 90 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.281 | 0.286 | 0.005 | 48.3% | 0.18 | 6.7% | 88.7% | 88.2 | 9.90% | 6.90% | 91 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.285 | 0.300 | 0.015 | 66.3% | 0.157 | 18.8% | 92.8% | 84.4 | 3.30% | 2.50% | 91 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.264 | 0.329 | 0.065 | 47.6% | 0.207 | 3.8% | 88.8% | 88.2 | 8.50% | 6.50% | 82 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | 0.282 | ||||||||||
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.281 | 0.308 | 0.027 | 66.0% | 0.17 | 22.2% | 91.9% | 88.2 | 5.70% | 4.20% | 53 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.275 | 0.259 | -0.016 | 46.0% | 0.207 | 10.3% | 86.8% | 89.2 | 8.00% | 5.90% | 87 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.285 | 0.256 | -0.029 | 31.3% | 0.15 | 9.3% | 80.1% | 86.8 | 6.10% | 3.80% | 82 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.305 | 0.220 | -0.085 | 43.0% | 0.267 | 3.8% | 87.9% | 86.7 | 8.10% | 5.60% | 86 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 0.291 | ||||||||||
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.270 | 0.237 | -0.033 | 37.2% | 0.14 | 4.8% | 81.1% | 92.3 | 11.90% | 8.10% | 42 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.276 | 0.132 | -0.144 | 44.6% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 95.3% | 88.9 | 7.10% | 5.60% | 56 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.318 | 0.278 | -0.04 | 50.7% | 0.2 | 4.5% | 85.4% | 88 | 8.00% | 5.40% | 75 |
A combination of possibly the worst defense in the league and a 26.8 LD% should lead to a high BABIP, but Adam Wainwright has felt too much BABIP pain.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Tiers are useless on a five games slate. This is the order in which we prefer our pitchers on a combined site basis with a few differences noted. For today, pitchers fall in order of overall expectation as well as value. I’d suggest building your offense first and seeing which pitcher fits afterward. No pitcher is worth building around today and omitting desired bats for.
Matt Andriese might have the talent to be something close to a league average pitcher. For the same price, I don’t see him as much different than Wainwright today, though they might get there in different ways with the latter facing an offense more extreme in power and strikeouts. Considering park and opposition, this may be the top overall spot on the night slate. For $6.9K on FanDuel, he looks to be the value play there.
Dan Straily has been inconsistent and drops behind Wainwright for $9.6K on DraftKings, but he has shown upside on occasion and that’s what we have to hope for today against one of the most strikeout prone offenses in baseball.
Adam Wainwright was not a pitcher of interest last night. We hope he forgives us. On this slate, the strikeout potential plays up more than anything else. In fact, with the two pitchers above him costing more on DK and he being the opposite, I have no real preference between he and Andriese for the same price.
Zack Wheeler is a difficult play on DraftKings ($9K), but surely has to at least be considered for $2K less on FanDuel. If he commands the breaking stuff, he has top point total upside on this board, depending how things break for other starters in volatile spots. If not, well, it could be a five inning outing again. Another positive is that the Mets used up the bullpen again last night and may try a bit harder to stretch him out to seven. Though they’ll still be careful with a pitcher coming of TJS, he is more than two years removed.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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