Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 3rd
Tuesdays will usually offer a full night slate, but early in the season that’s not always the case. There are several day games today along with a couple of early evening games, leaving nine on the night slate, same as Monday. As was the case yesterday, there will be some short notes on day game pitchers of interest with full coverage of the later games.
Something that I probably should have addressed already is that this article will be running three days a week this year (Monday, Tuesday, Friday), aside from special circumstances like Opening Day.
Lastly, Tuesday offers a mix of pitchers coming around for the second time and some back arms, who haven’t pitched yet. Pitcher season, last 30 and last 14 day stats are still from 2017 for the rest of the week. Opposing team stats for 2018, however, will begin being used Friday with a full week in.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | 0.7 | 4.74 | 5.1 | 38.8% | 0.99 | 5.59 | 4.70 | Braves | 90 | 89 | 90 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | -0.6 | 5.27 | 5.9 | 38.2% | 0.92 | 5.85 | 5.47 | Mets | 96 | 101 | 90 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | -0.1 | 4.42 | 5.3 | 37.5% | 1.02 | 4.57 | 2.95 | Cardinals | 97 | 99 | 71 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 3.2 | 3.48 | 6.0 | 45.2% | 1.03 | 3.75 | 3.94 | Yankees | 115 | 110 | 128 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 3.6 | 3.00 | 6.9 | 40.2% | 0.88 | 2.48 | 2.09 | Marlins | 100 | 92 | 121 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 4.2 | 2.72 | 6.7 | 48.6% | 1.17 | 2.89 | 3.69 | Diamondbacks | 107 | 85 | 110 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 4.8 | 4.74 | 4.5 | 53.7% | 1.01 | 7.68 | 8.73 | Cubs | 95 | 102 | 90 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | -1.4 | 4.34 | 6.3 | 48.8% | 0.96 | 5.11 | 4.38 | Athletics | 114 | 90 | 89 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 3.7 | 3.92 | 5.2 | 50.0% | 0.93 | 2.50 | 4.54 | Indians | 110 | 105 | 102 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | -1.3 | 4.19 | 6.0 | 44.3% | 1.04 | 4.01 | 2.87 | White Sox | 91 | 106 | 64 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.8 | 4.62 | 4.0 | 47.6% | 1.02 | 3.91 | 4.30 | Brewers | 90 | 94 | 91 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.5 | 4.49 | 5.8 | 40.1% | 1.07 | 5.39 | 4.98 | Tigers | 110 | 91 | 50 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 3.9 | 3.83 | 6.0 | 46.6% | 1.01 | 4.00 | 4.98 | Reds | 100 | 91 | 90 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | -0.3 | 4.34 | 5.3 | 40.7% | 1.03 | 4.25 | 4.52 | Rays | 96 | 90 | 103 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 3.6 | 5.02 | 5.4 | 44.7% | 0.88 | 5.43 | 5.93 | Red Sox | 91 | 90 | 75 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 2.2 | 4.20 | 5.7 | 42.1% | 0.93 | 4.26 | 3.89 | Angels | 99 | 98 | 87 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | -0.4 | 4.40 | 6.1 | 39.6% | 0.99 | 5.15 | 5.16 | Nationals | 90 | 100 | 111 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | -3.7 | 3.69 | 6.5 | 33.9% | 0.87 | 4.70 | 2.68 | Orioles | 87 | 95 | 25 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | -7.7 | 4.63 | 5.8 | 51.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 | 4.63 | Rangers | 82 | 95 | 79 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.93 | 5.3 | 53.9% | 0.91 | 5.24 | 6.03 | Padres | 90 | 80 | 59 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 4.1 | 4.48 | 4.1 | 45.4% | 0.93 | 4.36 | 4.70 | Giants | 84 | 81 | 106 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | -2 | 4.71 | 5.2 | 38.1% | 1.07 | 5.12 | 4.83 | Royals | 91 | 89 | 78 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 1.1 | 4.74 | 5.2 | 42.0% | 0.92 | 5.58 | 6.03 | Phillies | 79 | 91 | 101 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | -0.1 | 5.03 | 5.8 | 38.0% | 1.04 | 6.13 | 4.34 | Blue Jays | 92 | 90 | 89 |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | -4.7 | 4.53 | 5.3 | 42.3% | 0.87 | 4.95 | 4.45 | Astros | 121 | 122 | 143 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | -1.8 | 5.28 | 6.2 | 47.5% | 0.93 | 4.96 | 6.55 | Mariners | 95 | 94 | 124 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -4.1 | 5.89 | 4.6 | 46.9% | 0.91 | 6.36 | Rockies | 82 | 84 | 130 | |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | -4.6 | 3.83 | 5.9 | 54.7% | 1.17 | 3.47 | 4.30 | Dodgers | 98 | 103 | 133 |
Day Games
Jakob Junis closed strong and had an even stronger spring (20 Ks in 14 innings). There’s nothing exceptional in his profile, but nothing really wrong either. Lots of sliders should be able to keep a rebuilding lineup off balance.
Chris Archer was decent in his first start against the Red Sox. Four runs, but just seven base runners and six strikeouts in six innings after entering the game with injury concerns (forearm). He allowed a 17.5 HR/FB on the road last year and his 89 mph aEV overall remains highest on the board.
Jordan Montgomery had a 12.2 SwStr% and is facing an offense with a 25.9 K% vs LHP last season.
Ty Blach three hit the Dodgers for five innings and striking out three of 19 batters is something like his ceiling, while facing the Mariners in San Francisco without Nelson Cruz has some appeal, but probably not enough since his entire game is based on weak contact. If you’re ever going to like him though, this may be the spot.
Chris Sale in Miami is pret-ty, pret-ty good. He struck out nine in Tampa to start the season. He may never want to leave Florida.
Jon Lester struggled in Miami. Although there are whispers that his velocity had dropped an alarming amount, it’s difficult to find readings on either Fangraphs or Brooks Baseball for that start. He did have a 9.9 SwStr% and just a 20 Hard%, not all that terrible, but faces a much better offense in more difficult park on Tuesday.
Cody Reed has some bat missing ability, but also control and hard contact issues.
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Clayton Kershaw looked human in his first start against the Giants, though they only put one run on the board (”(player-popup #joe-panik)Joe Panik”:/players/joe-panik-14880’s HR) against seven strikeouts and two walks in six innings, he was able to strand each of the other seven runners he placed on base. His 25.3 K-BB% last season was his worst since 2013, but still fourth best in baseball. While the ERA was well below his estimators, Statcast is able to support his low wOBA. Let’s forget this so-called humidor. There’s just one park in baseball players should consider worth fading Kershaw for and this isn’t it.
Garrett Richards reached 89 pitches in his first start of the season after throwing just 12.2 innings this spring. Oakland took him deep twice and accepted three walks. Despite league average control, the long ball has never been a specific issue. In fact, he generally excels at inducing weak contact, which Statcast can attest to below with an xwOBA of just .274 in an abbreviated season last year and just an 11.8 Hard% against Oakland despite those two HRs. Cleveland is a difficult lineup to navigate and we can’t be sure how much the lowered right-field wall will affect this park when teams with quite a bit of left-handed power (Cleveland) come visiting.
Jack Flaherty threw just 21.1 innings (five starts) for the Cardinals last year, but may have had one of the best sliders in the league over that run. Fangraphs prospect writers project him as a mid-rotation arm after running a 25% strikeout rate at AA and AAA last season (148.2 innings) and exhibiting more control than he did at the major league level (10.6 BB%).
Justin Verlander found his slider before the trade to Housotn and took it with him. He was an absolute beast for the with a 31.7 K-BB% in five regular season starts for the Astros and a 22.1 K-BB% in 36.2 more post-season innings. He followed up a strong spring (24 in 22 innings, allowing just four runs) with a strong Opening Day start in Texas (6 IP – 4 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 5 K). While Houston is the most negative run environment in baseball via Seamheads.org, it does still play power friendly for RHBs (1.14). That’s really the only concern here. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with occasional long ball issues (three home runs this spring) and no real career platoon split, though the slider may give him one (he had one last year). The Orioles still have right-handed power.
Zack Godley is the kind of pitcher who makes you really want to believe in the humidor. He combined a 26.6 K% with a board best 55.3 GB% and 27.7 Z-O-Swing%. Statcast supports a wOBA below .290. The lone issue was that 37.6% of his contact was above a 95 mph exit velocity. He allowed a few home runs. The humidor helps him with that and he’s a star. It doesn’t and this is not a great matchup against the Dodgers.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Chase Anderson (.265 – 80.6% – 8.6) shut out the Padres on one hit through six innings in his first start. Added velocity from last season did not hold in his first start, as his 91.7 mph average was down two full miles per hour from last year, though he was able to maintain a 10.3 SwStr% in that start. While Statcast was a believer in his contact suppression last year (.273 xwOBA, 84.4 mph aEV, 4.4% Barrels/BBE, 26.8% 95+ mph EV), which probably puts him somewhere between his ERA and estimators. He may be a bit over-priced in this spot at home against the Cardinals, especially at $10.1K on DraftKings. He’s also one of those reverse split guys (though good against both sides last year), which could favor the Cardinals. The velocity is something to watch tonight.
A.J. Cole (.293 – 83.1% – 13.6) missed bats at a league average rate, which probably makes an expectation of a strikeout rate slightly below average against the Braves. He increased his ground ball rate to league average last year, but had a 20.0 Hard-Soft% despite just a 16.7 LD%.
Ben Lively (.280 – 74.2% – 10.4) doesn’t miss bats and probably can’t sustain that HR rate in Philly. He’s in a friendlier environment tonight and Statcast points to his weak contact prowess last season, but there’s an additional factor. His manager is a physical fitness freak and it’s common knowledge that a sedentary lifestyle is a future health hazard (we’re all probably screwed), Kapler likes to get his exercise in during game time hours by walking from the dugout to the mound…frequently. Heck, as he proved Saturday, he’s perfectly willing to remove a pitcher from a game without another even warming up in the bullpen.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
J.A. Happ wasn’t necessarily punished by the Yankees on Opening Day, allowing just the rocket off Stanton’s bat, but his 96 pitches didn’t even get him through five innings. He did generate an impressive 12 swings and misses though. He looks like a league average arm at a league average cost, which would be fine here, except that while you’d expect that Yankees to thump right-handed pitching, the prowess of the White Sox against southpaws may come as a bit more of a surprise. They were able to muster two runs in a Jaime Garcia start last night though, both by way of Welington Castillo home runs.
Matt Harvey was a mess last season and it was discovered that he was pitching with a tremendously atrophied muscle in his right shoulder after thoracic outlet surgery the year before (a surgery few pitchers return completely intact from). After a difficult start to his spring, in which we heard all the same things we heard last year, about how good he felt (lies, all lies!), his last two starts have been very strong (10.1 IP – 3 BB – 13 K – 80% strikes). The velocity hasn’t been entirely there, but the command and the secondaries were improved. There’s a lot to prove here and the Phillies should be better, but if anyone who hasn’t been burned to a crisp by him already is feeling adventurous, there may be some upside here at a cost below $8K on either site.
Kyle Freeland had some strange platoon splits last year. His overall .342 wOBA is not terrible considering the home park, but his aEV (88.8 mph) and 95+ mph EV (38.5%) are both second highest on the board. RHBs had a wOBA 25 points higher with a 1.9 K-BB% vs a 22.1 K-BB% for LHBs. He may only see one LHB (Hosmer). However, RHBs had a 58.9 GB% and 31.2 Hard% compared to a 33.7 GB% and 35 Hard% for LHBs. While the inclination is to take a closer look at him in a park like San Diego, he projects for lots of ground balls and few strikeouts against this particular lineup configuration, which doesn’t do anybody much good.
Cole Hamels is coming off a pretty terrible year by his usual standards. If they’re going to blame that on injuries, they better continue with that line of thinking. While walking four and allowing two blasts in Texas against the Astros may be forgiven, especially with seven strikeouts, his velocity was down three full miles per hour from last year (89.2 mph). The broadcast booth noted concern in spring training for the same. He was able to generate a 12.8 SwStr% regardless, up three points from last year and nearly matching his career 12.2% mark. The A’s will swing and miss and that could give him some value here, but have some right-handed mash.
Tyson Ross is back in San Diego? Did he ever really leave? Did he? His spring wasn’t terrible (15 IP – 6 BB – 11 K) and there are whispers that his “velocity and stuff is back”:https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/padres-to-call-up-tyson-ross-on-tuesday/c-270563842 after missing most of the last two seasons and looking terrible when he did pitch for the Rangers last year. The Rockies are an enviable assignment for most pitchers in negative run environments. If I were playing 10 lineups on a two pitcher site, I might throw him in a couple as a lottery ticket, but see no reason to trust him more than that. He was, at one point before injury, a very competent pitcher for this team.
Julio Teheran wasn’t good against the Phillies on Opening Day (5.2 IP – 4 H – 4 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 3 K). His upside is likely league average at this point and his price tag reflects that now. He has significant platoon issues, which should make Eaton and Harper great plays tonight (as the latter has been in virtually every game so far).
Josh Tomlin has a career 3.5 BB% and an ERA much worse than his estimators last year, but all those pitches in the strike zone occasionally allows hitters to tee off against him. A high BABIP is supported by a high line drive rate. Even if that’s forward looking, it’s been the case his entire career. Statcast is not a believer either. Last year was the first year since 2012 that he didn’t exhibit a reverse split, as he was below average against batters from either side. If old tendencies reappear though, that would be good news for a predominantly right-handed lineup he’s likely to face tonight.
Miguel Gonzalez is also a person who is pitching today. In Toronto.
Kendall Graveman did very Kendall Graveman-y things on Opening Day in terms of striking out just one of 22 Angels, but he also generated just a 38.1% ground ball rate and allowed three home runs. He may be a pitcher to attack tonight, even if the Rangers are on the road. Joey Gallo at least against a low strikeout pitcher.
Mike Wright has the worst overall Statcast numbers on the board, which may explain an ERA much higher than estimators. He did all his work (25 innings) in relief in 2017.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 14.6% | Season | 19.2% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 20.0% | Road | 17.2% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 28.0% | L14Days | 18.9% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 26.9% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | Season | 14.0% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | Road | 12.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 11.1% | L14Days | 10.4% | 4.2% | 15.8% | -7.5% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 16.0% | Season | 23.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.8% | Home | 22.2% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 14.3% | L14Days | 29.2% | 2.8% | 13.3% | |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Yrs | 28.2% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 20.9% | Season | 29.2% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 26.2% | Road | 25.7% | 7.6% | 17.5% | 23.9% | L14Days | 22.6% | 6.5% | 13.3% | 29.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 30.7% | 5.0% | 12.1% | 13.1% | Season | 36.2% | 5.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | Road | 38.2% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | L14Days | 40.4% | 3.9% | 40.0% | 28.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 30.8% | 3.3% | 12.3% | 5.5% | Season | 29.8% | 4.4% | 15.9% | 3.9% | Road | 27.1% | 4.6% | 14.5% | -5.8% | L14Days | 20.0% | 2.9% | 21.4% | 9.2% |
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 12.3% | 27.8% | 22.4% | Season | 21.5% | 24.1% | 27.3% | 16.3% | Home | 14.0% | 32.0% | 37.5% | 14.8% | L14Days | 9.1% | 27.3% | -14.3% | |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 16.0% | Season | 17.1% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 22.3% | Road | 15.7% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 15.3% | L14Days | 25.8% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 38.4% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 12.6% | Season | 25.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | Home | 29.7% | 2.7% | 14.3% | -8.0% | L14Days | 23.7% | 10.5% | ||
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 10.6% | Season | 22.7% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 6.4% | Home | 22.0% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 13.2% | L14Days | 28.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 10.6% | 21.1% | 15.9% | Season | 21.3% | 10.6% | 21.1% | 15.9% | Road | 23.5% | 11.8% | 25.0% | 21.2% | L14Days | 20.6% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 19.8% | Season | 19.0% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 19.8% | Road | 16.6% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 18.7% | L14Days | 15.8% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 25.9% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 24.2% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 7.4% | Season | 23.6% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 6.7% | Road | 22.3% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 10.9% | L14Days | 16.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 22.4% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | Season | 22.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | Home | 24.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | L14Days | 18.6% | 4.7% | -9.1% | |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 12.4% | Season | 15.6% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% | Home | 13.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | L14Days | 11.3% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 23.8% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 2.7% | 16.0% | 19.5% | Season | 18.6% | 2.4% | 13.7% | 22.2% | Road | 17.8% | 1.6% | 10.3% | 22.9% | L14Days | 23.0% | 11.5% | 23.4% | |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 12.1% | Season | 18.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 9.3% | Home | 17.5% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 9.3% | L14Days | 14.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 12.6% | Season | 25.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 17.0% | Home | 22.9% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 15.1% | L14Days | 36.2% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 3.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 14.5% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 12.8% | Season | 15.8% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 14.2% | Home | 17.1% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 14.2% | L14Days | 14.8% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 11.9% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 7.7% | Season | 15.6% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 7.7% | Road | 13.3% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 12.4% | L14Days | 4.2% | 4.2% | 18.2% | |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 6.0% | 17.8% | 5.7% | Season | 17.3% | 6.0% | 17.8% | 5.7% | Road | 20.4% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 5.3% | L14Days | 17.9% | 7.1% | 10.0% | -9.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 12.5% | Season | 18.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 13.6% | Home | 17.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 16.2% | L14Days | 21.2% | 9.6% | 12.5% | -8.6% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 7.1% | Season | 15.6% | 10.9% | 20.6% | 8.4% | Home | 14.9% | 10.9% | 22.9% | 14.3% | L14Days | 10.9% | 10.9% | 22.2% | 4.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 13.6% | Season | 14.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 16.1% | Road | 12.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 14.8% | L14Days | 21.7% | 2.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 16.3% | Season | 25.7% | 6.4% | 20.8% | 23.9% | Road | 22.5% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 22.5% | L14Days | 21.9% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Yrs | 11.0% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.0% | Season | 10.6% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | Home | 12.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 11.3% | L14Days | 5.9% | 11.8% | 7.2% | |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 15.5% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 18.0% | Season | 15.1% | 15.6% | 13.0% | 17.7% | Home | 11.1% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 20.2% | L14Days | ||||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 8.1% | 16.6% | 13.9% | Season | 26.3% | 8.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | Home | 26.2% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 18.0% | L14Days | 23.6% | 10.9% | 18.2% | 22.2% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 9.0% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Mets | Home | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 13.0% | RH | 19.8% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 1.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 14.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.6% | 16.1% | 14.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.1% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 8.3% | RH | 21.7% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.2% | 21.9% | 7.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 8.4% | LH | 20.2% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 4.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 5.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.9% | 9.7% | 17.1% | 23.2% | LH | 24.0% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 16.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 22.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.6% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 11.2% | LH | 22.0% | 10.4% | 15.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 14.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.8% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 16.1% | LH | 24.2% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.0% | 11.1% | 16.1% |
| Indians | Road | 18.5% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 18.3% | RH | 19.0% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 16.3% | L7Days | 14.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 6.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.6% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 11.5% | LH | 21.2% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 6.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 18.4% | RH | 25.5% | 8.8% | 18.6% | 15.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 14.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 26.0% | RH | 22.1% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 20.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| Reds | Home | 22.2% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 9.0% | LH | 22.0% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| Rays | Road | 24.2% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 11.4% | LH | 25.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 8.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.8% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | RH | 19.7% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 14.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 4.1% |
| Angels | Home | 19.1% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 10.5% | RH | 19.8% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 7.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 12.2% | RH | 21.2% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 5.9% | 13.2% | 14.6% | RH | 22.7% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 23.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.1% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 11.5% | RH | 24.3% | 8.9% | 16.6% | 16.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 7.0% | LH | 24.9% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 25.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | -2.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | LH | 19.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 19.2% |
| Royals | Road | 20.4% | 6.2% | 13.5% | 11.4% | LH | 18.5% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 20.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | RH | 23.7% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 10.6% | RH | 21.4% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 30.5% | 6.6% | 18.5% | 4.5% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 13.4% | RH | 17.5% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 15.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.1% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 13.8% | LH | 20.0% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 17.3% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.6% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 10.1% | RH | 22.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 17.2% | 12.2% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.0% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 18.4% | RH | 22.3% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 19.2% | L7Days | 16.9% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 19.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | 19.2% | 9.8% | 1.96 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 1.87 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.94 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 2.36 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.29 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.41 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 29.2% | 13.4% | 2.18 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 1.73 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 36.2% | 14.9% | 2.43 | 35.5% | 12.7% | 2.80 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 29.8% | 14.1% | 2.11 | 22.9% | 13.9% | 1.65 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 21.5% | 13.3% | 1.62 | 11.1% | 8.5% | 1.31 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 17.1% | 9.7% | 1.76 | 23.1% | 12.4% | 1.86 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 25.0% | 12.7% | 1.97 | 25.6% | 13.7% | 1.87 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 22.7% | 9.5% | 2.39 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 2.80 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 21.3% | 13.1% | 1.63 | 19.2% | 15.0% | 1.28 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 19.0% | 8.9% | 2.13 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 2.14 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 23.6% | 11.0% | 2.15 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 1.81 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 22.2% | 12.2% | 1.82 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.04 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 1.63 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 18.6% | 8.4% | 2.21 | 18.7% | 10.4% | 1.80 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 18.6% | 9.4% | 1.98 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 1.77 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 25.8% | 10.7% | 2.41 | 35.8% | 14.2% | 2.52 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.32 | 13.1% | 6.2% | 2.11 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 15.6% | 7.5% | 2.08 | 13.6% | 8.1% | 1.68 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 17.3% | 9.1% | 1.90 | 24.3% | 7.0% | 3.47 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 18.2% | 10.0% | 1.82 | 19.2% | 11.1% | 1.73 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 15.6% | 7.5% | 2.08 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 1.84 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.18 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 2.00 |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 25.7% | 10.6% | 2.42 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 2.36 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 10.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.24 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 15.1% | 6.2% | 2.44 | 5.6% | 6.0% | 0.93 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 26.3% | 13.3% | 1.98 | 27.3% | 12.3% | 2.22 |
Jack Flaherty is a bit of a fluke as his SwStr rate was above 13% in only his last start, but he did sit between 11-13% in three straight prior to that.
There were otherwise no significant outliers for last season.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | 3.81 | 5.12 | 1.31 | 3.81 | 1.40 | 5.20 | 1.39 | 5.42 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 5.15 | 2.15 | 5.36 | 2.36 | 5.45 | 2.45 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 4.26 | 5.27 | 1.01 | 4.26 | 1.32 | 4.97 | 0.71 | 5.63 | 1.37 | 4.34 | 5.12 | 0.78 | 5.61 | 1.27 | 5.09 | 0.75 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 2.74 | 4.14 | 1.40 | 2.74 | 1.59 | 3.58 | 0.84 | 4.17 | 1.43 | 2.06 | 3.83 | 1.77 | 3.64 | 1.58 | 3.13 | 1.07 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 4.07 | 3.44 | -0.63 | 4.07 | -0.72 | 3.40 | -0.67 | 3.28 | -0.79 | 7.48 | 4.00 | -3.48 | 3.86 | -3.62 | 5.05 | -2.43 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.90 | 2.58 | -0.32 | 2.90 | -0.25 | 2.45 | -0.45 | 2.37 | -0.53 | 3.72 | 2.73 | -0.99 | 2.51 | -1.21 | 5.19 | 1.47 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 2.31 | 3.04 | 0.73 | 2.31 | 0.53 | 3.07 | 0.76 | 3.10 | 0.79 | 4.23 | 3.85 | -0.38 | 3.66 | -0.57 | 4.21 | -0.02 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 5.09 | 6.46 | 1.37 | 5.09 | 0.48 | 6.67 | 1.58 | 5.91 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 7.52 | 7.52 | 7.28 | 7.28 | 5.34 | 5.34 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 4.20 | 4.90 | 0.70 | 4.20 | 0.63 | 4.62 | 0.42 | 4.51 | 0.31 | 5.13 | 4.48 | -0.65 | 4.5 | -0.63 | 4.48 | -0.65 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 2.28 | 3.60 | 1.32 | 2.28 | 1.04 | 2.43 | 0.15 | 2.65 | 0.37 | 2.74 | 3.70 | 0.96 | 3.49 | 0.75 | 2.51 | -0.23 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 3.53 | 4.11 | 0.58 | 3.53 | 0.41 | 3.76 | 0.23 | 3.73 | 0.20 | 1.99 | 3.74 | 1.75 | 3.58 | 1.59 | 2.72 | 0.73 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 6.33 | 4.62 | -1.71 | 6.33 | -1.92 | 5.27 | -1.06 | 6.76 | 0.43 | 5.19 | 5.14 | -0.05 | 4.91 | -0.28 | 5.52 | 0.33 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.30 | 4.49 | 0.19 | 4.30 | 0.47 | 4.55 | 0.25 | 4.80 | 0.50 | 4.11 | 4.72 | 0.61 | 4.66 | 0.55 | 4.39 | 0.28 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 4.33 | 4.07 | -0.26 | 4.33 | -0.48 | 4.10 | -0.23 | 4.06 | -0.27 | 4.18 | 5.05 | 0.87 | 4.76 | 0.58 | 5.42 | 1.24 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 3.88 | 4.34 | 0.46 | 3.88 | 0.57 | 4.07 | 0.19 | 4.49 | 0.61 | 2.49 | 4.55 | 2.06 | 4.62 | 2.13 | 3.99 | 1.50 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 3.82 | 5.19 | 1.37 | 3.82 | 1.47 | 5.20 | 1.38 | 5.39 | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 | 1.75 | 5.09 | 1.34 | 5.63 | 1.88 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 4.98 | 4.17 | -0.81 | 4.98 | -0.87 | 4.12 | -0.86 | 5.25 | 0.27 | 3.52 | 4.13 | 0.61 | 4.23 | 0.71 | 3.55 | 0.03 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.49 | 4.89 | 0.40 | 4.49 | 0.47 | 4.95 | 0.46 | 3.71 | -0.78 | 3.19 | 5.32 | 2.13 | 5.29 | 2.10 | 4.06 | 0.87 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 3.36 | 4.05 | 0.69 | 3.36 | 0.81 | 3.84 | 0.48 | 3.12 | -0.24 | 1.06 | 2.59 | 1.53 | 2.94 | 1.88 | 2.69 | 1.63 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 4.19 | 4.74 | 0.55 | 4.19 | 0.35 | 4.33 | 0.14 | 3.88 | -0.31 | 3.12 | 4.93 | 1.81 | 4.81 | 1.69 | 4.23 | 1.11 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 4.10 | 4.93 | 0.83 | 4.10 | 0.60 | 4.57 | 0.47 | 5.86 | 1.76 | 6.39 | 5.43 | -0.96 | 5.04 | -1.35 | 3.63 | -2.76 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 6.08 | 4.48 | -1.60 | 6.08 | -1.62 | 5.06 | -1.02 | 5.87 | -0.21 | 2.81 | 3.54 | 0.73 | 3.45 | 0.64 | 2.60 | -0.21 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 5.27 | 4.94 | -0.33 | 5.27 | -0.26 | 4.51 | -0.76 | 5.33 | 0.06 | 3.13 | 4.66 | 1.53 | 4.83 | 1.70 | 4.17 | 1.04 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 6.70 | 5.44 | -1.26 | 6.70 | -1.31 | 6.37 | -0.33 | 7.05 | 0.35 | 11.28 | 5.97 | -5.31 | 6.4 | -4.88 | 6.92 | -4.36 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 4.62 | 5.39 | 0.77 | 4.62 | 1.03 | 4.88 | 0.26 | 5.25 | 0.63 | 6.45 | 5.56 | -0.89 | 6.18 | -0.27 | 6.65 | 0.20 |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 5.76 | 3.34 | -2.42 | 5.76 | -1.93 | 4.72 | -1.04 | 3.77 | -1.99 | 6.39 | 4.20 | -2.19 | 4.59 | -1.80 | 5.84 | -0.55 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 4.78 | 5.36 | 0.58 | 4.78 | 0.23 | 4.42 | -0.36 | 6.61 | 1.83 | 5.93 | 6.77 | 0.84 | 6.34 | 0.41 | 5.21 | -0.72 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 7.71 | 6.17 | -1.54 | 7.71 | -1.43 | 6.18 | -1.53 | 6.24 | -1.47 | 18.00 | 5.56 | -12.44 | 6.86 | -11.14 | 8.82 | -9.18 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 3.37 | 3.67 | 0.30 | 3.37 | -0.05 | 3.41 | 0.04 | 3.21 | -0.16 | 3.66 | 3.62 | -0.04 | 3.26 | -0.40 | 3.25 | -0.41 |
There are plenty of pitchers with ERAs far separated from their ERAs this season, most in partial season sample sizes to some degree. It’s great that we now have Statcast to further evaluate, rather than simply chalking everything up to luck. This is more in terms of BABIP and HRs. A strand rate above 80% is still generally a red flag under any conditions, unless dealing with a massive strikeout rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.293 | 0.006 | 44.0% | 16.7% | 6.8% | 85.2% | 35.8% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.304 | 0.280 | -0.024 | 38.2% | 17.7% | 12.0% | 89.8% | 36.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.298 | 0.265 | -0.033 | 39.2% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 85.0% | 36.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.283 | 0.325 | 0.042 | 42.0% | 22.0% | 9.4% | 81.6% | 36.8% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.303 | 0.301 | -0.002 | 38.7% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 79.2% | 29.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.267 | -0.014 | 47.9% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 82.4% | 38.3% |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 0.296 | 0.200 | -0.096 | 60.5% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 80.7% | 43.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.289 | 0.251 | -0.038 | 47.5% | 18.8% | 4.7% | 86.7% | 38.5% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.289 | 0.233 | -0.056 | 54.2% | 16.7% | 9.5% | 88.5% | 39.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 46.9% | 19.4% | 8.2% | 85.1% | 36.0% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.298 | 0.322 | 0.024 | 47.6% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 82.6% | 45.8% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.303 | 0.294 | -0.009 | 40.1% | 19.7% | 7.4% | 87.4% | 38.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.285 | 0.310 | 0.025 | 46.2% | 21.4% | 7.3% | 84.2% | 33.1% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.275 | -0.005 | 40.7% | 17.8% | 6.4% | 86.3% | 32.3% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.298 | 0.249 | -0.049 | 43.1% | 18.7% | 9.0% | 88.9% | 39.3% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.303 | 0.329 | 0.026 | 39.6% | 23.2% | 7.1% | 89.7% | 34.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.302 | 0.281 | -0.021 | 40.0% | 20.2% | 9.3% | 86.0% | 36.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.300 | 0.271 | -0.029 | 33.5% | 23.8% | 9.8% | 85.4% | 38.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.294 | 0.313 | 0.019 | 51.2% | 19.0% | 5.0% | 91.1% | 36.7% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.308 | 0.003 | 53.9% | 18.5% | 11.0% | 89.2% | 43.5% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.283 | 0.383 | 0.100 | 45.4% | 22.7% | 11.1% | 88.3% | 38.8% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.320 | 0.330 | 0.010 | 38.1% | 22.3% | 15.9% | 83.7% | 38.6% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 0.319 | 0.307 | -0.012 | 43.0% | 23.2% | 8.8% | 89.2% | 41.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.281 | 0.289 | 0.008 | 36.2% | 19.6% | 8.8% | 90.5% | 35.2% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 0.302 | 0.318 | 0.016 | 43.7% | 22.5% | 16.7% | 87.1% | 36.2% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.308 | 0.290 | -0.018 | 46.7% | 21.5% | 7.3% | 90.1% | 41.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.299 | 0.303 | 0.004 | 46.8% | 18.6% | 7.4% | 92.3% | 34.1% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.294 | 0.280 | -0.014 | 55.3% | 18.5% | 7.8% | 88.8% | 27.7% |
A high Z-O-Swing% wouldn’t seem to match up in most cases with a low Z-Contact% and in fact, we only see that among two pitchers with small sample sizes last year.
Justin Verlander wouldn’t seem to be able to support last year’s BABIP, but he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher and has a career BABIP only 14 points higher.
Kyle Freeland has the highest Z-O-Swing% on the board among those who threw more than a few innings in the majors last year. He’s not fooling anyone, but he is generating lots of weak ground balls, which can be confirmed in the table below (84.6 mph aEV, 4.3% Barrels/BBE).
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | 0.341 | 0.008 | 0.347 | 0.016 | 0.375 | -0.021 | 0.2 | 85.9 | 5.2 | 32.9 | 155 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.324 | 0.023 | 0.321 | 0.024 | 0.312 | 0.019 | 0.8 | 84.7 | 5.6 | 27.8 | 288 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.273 | 0.011 | 0.273 | 0.010 | 0.281 | -0.017 | -1.5 | 84.4 | 4.4 | 26.8 | 388 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.292 | 0.019 | 0.315 | 0.022 | 0.299 | 0.092 | -0.9 | 89 | 5.4 | 37.9 | 538 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.248 | 0.016 | 0.239 | 0.016 | 0.303 | 0.070 | -1.1 | 86.4 | 6.1 | 29.5 | 492 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.253 | 0.008 | 0.235 | 0.028 | 0.259 | 0.052 | -0.4 | 84.6 | 6.3 | 26.5 | 446 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.413 | -0.008 | 0.345 | -0.001 | -1.0 | 84.2 | 4.7 | 34.9 | 43 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.325 | -0.018 | 0.316 | -0.020 | 0.332 | -0.012 | -0.1 | 87.7 | 4.5 | 34.2 | 445 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.274 | -0.052 | 0.302 | -0.098 | 0.282 | -0.054 | -0.8 | 85.7 | 4.1 | 28.4 | 74 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.288 | 0.019 | 0.309 | 0.015 | 0.256 | 0.011 | -0.5 | 85.7 | 4.3 | 30.8 | 438 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.326 | 0.038 | 0.322 | 0.078 | 0.326 | 0.038 | 1.1 | 84.4 | 6.3 | 22.2 | 63 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.338 | -0.009 | 0.339 | -0.001 | 0.353 | -0.020 | -0.6 | 88.7 | 6.2 | 35.4 | 308 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.301 | 0.025 | 0.317 | 0.013 | 0.351 | 0.010 | 0.0 | 85.4 | 5.4 | 29.1 | 519 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.298 | 0.002 | 0.302 | -0.027 | 0.274 | -0.009 | -0.7 | 86.7 | 6.2 | 31.8 | 453 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.340 | -0.019 | 0.337 | 0.001 | 0.328 | 0.007 | -0.6 | 85.4 | 8.1 | 28.7 | 533 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.342 | 0.004 | 0.339 | -0.022 | 0.336 | -0.001 | -1.4 | 87.8 | 7.0 | 36.2 | 458 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.320 | 0.014 | 0.344 | 0.011 | 0.299 | 0.031 | 0.0 | 86.3 | 6.2 | 29.9 | 582 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.309 | -0.018 | 0.309 | -0.053 | 0.242 | -0.037 | -0.9 | 87.3 | 7.2 | 35.4 | 554 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.342 | -0.001 | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.313 | -0.015 | 0.3 | 88.8 | 6.2 | 38.5 | 338 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.310 | 0.031 | 0.351 | 0.014 | 0.324 | 0.092 | 0.5 | 84.6 | 4.3 | 32.5 | 510 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.348 | 0.051 | 0.342 | 0.068 | 0.267 | 0.043 | -0.4 | 87.7 | 5.7 | 34.8 | 141 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.328 | 0.029 | 0.328 | 0.003 | 0.325 | -0.036 | -0.5 | 85.8 | 5.7 | 28.0 | 439 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 0.360 | 0.023 | 0.377 | -0.034 | 0.357 | 0.115 | -0.7 | 86.1 | 6.8 | 34.4 | 311 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.336 | 0.007 | 0.358 | 0.009 | 0.359 | 0.004 | -1.1 | 87.8 | 6.7 | 35.0 | 523 |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 0.332 | 0.023 | 0.323 | 0.009 | 0.343 | 0.046 | -0.5 | 88.8 | 8.5 | 39.4 | 71 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.328 | 0.001 | 0.327 | -0.026 | 0.364 | -0.052 | -2.4 | 85.7 | 3.7 | 31.7 | 575 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.367 | 0.011 | 0.363 | 0.005 | 0.427 | 0.101 | -1.1 | 85.8 | 7.6 | 27.2 | 158 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.288 | 0.001 | 0.291 | -0.016 | 0.298 | -0.003 | -0.9 | 86.2 | 5.4 | 37.6 | 404 |
Jack Flaherty allowed some runs last year, but xwOBA believed him to be league average, while the contact he generated was of a similar exit velocity to guys like Chase Anderson and Clayton Kershaw.
Justin Verlander has some questionable exit velocities, but the overall stuff is again good enough to over-ride that.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It seemed like there’d be more options with several pitchers making their second start. Unfortunately, many of those on the main slate weren’t really traditional Opening Day starters. The two top arms on the board are pretty clear and two of the three pitchers we like are in Arizona with another in Milwaukee. Tonight turns out more difficult than anticipated.
Value Tier One
Justin Verlander (1t) has been the nuts ever since the trade to Houston. There are some concerns against an offense packed with right-handed power, but the benefits should far out-weigh if he keeps it up. Players may have to decide between he and Kershaw on DraftKings with $600 separating them, but it’s more than $1K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Two
Clayton Kershaw (1t) is easily the most expensive pitcher on the main slate. Even in struggling against the Giants, he had an 18.7 SwStr%. Even if he’s beginning his decline, it only means he may have a couple of peers at this point instead of standing entirely alone atop the heap. At his peak, he was a $14-15K arm on DraftKings and worth it, so this is somewhat of a discount.
Value Tier Three
Zack Godley (3) is probably playable whether or not the humidor plays a factor. Even in a disadvantageous matchup, his stuff is plenty good enough to cover a cost of $9K or less. It’s just that the humidor hasn’t meant much of anything yet. I have no idea how to consider this park right now.
Garrett Richards (4) struggled through five innings in his first start, but though it may not immediately appear that way, he continued to generate weak contact and even saw his velocity increase from last year. He should be good for 90+ pitches tonight and while it’s not a great matchup, he’s affordable. In fact, he’s the only pitcher on the board with a higher FanDuel price than DraftKings and the difference is a sizeable $1.2K. He has to be considered in a secondary role on that site at least.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jack Flaherty isn’t an easy arm to evaluate today. I don’t like the matchup in Milwaukee. This should be a really good offense this year, especially in that park. However, he’s projected to be a quality arm and the cost ($6K on either site) might be a bit low.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.