Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, July 4th
A couple of things before we get started on this holiday slate. First, happy fireworks and hamburger days. Have fun, but be safe and don’t blow your typing fingers off. On to baseball matters.
FanDuel is including all 15 games on their all day slate, while DraftKings is omitting the 11 am ET start, as will this article. Otherwise, the remaining 14 games will be covered. However, in order to do so, much of this article is being written on Monday night prior to the games that are currently running being reflected in the updated stats before this article will be posted. Therefore a few quoted stats may change between now and what you finally see on Tuesday morning, but the difference shouldn’t be significant to be an issue at this point in the season.
There are a few interesting arms returning from the Disabled List today along with some Ace material on this board. There should be more than enough quality pitching to make everyone happy today.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -1.9 | 3.94 | 4.83 | 42.0% | 1 | 4.17 | 4.49 | ATL | 91 | 90 | 41 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.8 | 4.41 | 5.84 | 49.8% | 1.01 | 4 | TOR | 93 | 94 | 50 | |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.5 | 3.51 | 6.18 | 45.3% | 0.96 | 3.76 | 4.35 | CHC | 99 | 88 | 65 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2 | 2.49 | 7.11 | 48.2% | 0.89 | 2.48 | 2.2 | ARI | 81 | 74 | 90 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -4.5 | 3.31 | 6.75 | 43.6% | 1.09 | 3.25 | 1.66 | SDG | 75 | 85 | 89 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -14.2 | 4.49 | 5.25 | 48.0% | 0.93 | 2.68 | 4.15 | CHW | 95 | 87 | 107 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 7.8 | 4.06 | 6.06 | 38.4% | 0.89 | 4.12 | SEA | 110 | 95 | 88 | |
| David Price | BOS | 2.7 | 3.53 | 6.57 | 43.4% | 1.11 | 4.15 | 3.53 | TEX | 100 | 77 | 81 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 7.9 | 4.14 | 6.17 | 51.6% | 0.89 | 4.15 | 4.26 | KAN | 86 | 86 | 120 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 10.3 | 4.13 | 3.4 | 45.3% | 1.39 | 2.99 | 6.35 | COL | 82 | 77 | 60 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -2.3 | 3.98 | 5.81 | 42.9% | 1.01 | 4.41 | 4.93 | NYY | 126 | 95 | 108 |
| James Shields | CHW | -0.3 | 4.88 | 5.66 | 41.3% | 0.93 | 5.55 | 6.12 | OAK | 107 | 102 | 64 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -6.8 | 3.81 | 5.76 | 52.6% | 0.96 | 3.55 | 4.08 | PHI | 94 | 82 | 82 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -1.5 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 48.7% | 1.04 | 3.98 | 3.82 | MIN | 102 | 100 | 90 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.4 | 4.34 | 5.76 | 50.0% | 1.02 | 4.15 | 2.65 | BAL | 89 | 92 | 46 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.3 | 3.47 | 6.36 | 48.4% | 0.96 | 3.44 | 3.69 | TAM | 101 | 89 | 93 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.6 | 5 | 5.24 | 43.4% | 0.98 | 5.09 | 5.26 | STL | 100 | 98 | 86 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 1.1 | 5.02 | 5.83 | 56.4% | 1.39 | 3.95 | 5.87 | CIN | 94 | 98 | 91 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.9 | 4.64 | 5.67 | 50.1% | 1.04 | 4.4 | 6.22 | ANA | 82 | 93 | 52 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -7.8 | 4.41 | 5.45 | 44.6% | 0.98 | 4.54 | 4.37 | MIA | 98 | 94 | 99 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 2.4 | 4.94 | 5.5 | 49.4% | 0.96 | 4.48 | 3.64 | PIT | 85 | 89 | 70 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.6 | 4.96 | 5.12 | 39.4% | 0.98 | 5.69 | 5.51 | DET | 116 | 97 | 110 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.6 | 4.09 | 6.35 | 49.6% | 0.98 | 4.14 | 3.34 | SFO | 87 | 81 | 93 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -7.4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 51.4% | 0.89 | 4.22 | 3.34 | LOS | 123 | 116 | 127 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -0.6 | 4.26 | 6.03 | 0.485 | 1 | 4.33 | 3.69 | HOU | 126 | 115 | 152 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | -9.1 | 3.51 | 5.76 | 0.583 | 1.09 | 3.48 | CLE | 101 | 104 | 93 | |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -2.7 | 4.66 | 5.38 | 0.489 | 1.02 | 4.69 | 4.91 | MIL | 95 | 98 | 117 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 4.5 | 3.47 | 6.09 | 0.41 | 1.11 | 3.53 | 2.31 | BOS | 101 | 96 | 133 |
Brad Peacock has started seven games. Right in the middle, he had one horrible start, where he struck out just one. Aside from that, his seven strikeout performance last time out would be his next lowest total, all the more remarkable considering he’s only completed six innings once. He had a 35.9 K% (13.1 SwStr%) in his starts, but is plagued by a 14.1 BB% that has hindered his ability to go deeper into games. Facing Atlanta on the road, he’s in a strong run prevention spot, but not a high strikeout one. That’s okay because he has strikeouts to spare.
Chris Archer has a 28.6 K% that ranks just fifth on this slate, third among qualifiers. His 21.4 K-BB% in ninth in the majors. He has struck out just nine of his last 52 batters, but has not dipped below a 9.8 SwStr% in a start since April. Previously excelling at keeping the ball in the park (6.3% Barrels/BBE) despite a lot of hard contact (89.1 mph aEV, 37.9% 95+ mph EV), he’s allowed five HRs over his last five starts to bring his season total up to 11. He’s in a favorable spot at Wrigley today against a Cubs’ offense with an 18.6 K-BB% over the last week. There’s no denying the world champs have been a major offensive disappointment this season.
Clayton Kershaw allowed four HRs three starts back to cap off a streak of at least one in five straight starts, giving him a career high 17 HRs allowed already. He has not allowed one since and has even struck out 30 of his last 74 batters, including that four HR performance. With his season strikeout rate reaching 30% now, it’s difficult to remain too concerned. His 25.7 K-BB% is third best in baseball and his 85.3 mph aEV (29.1% 95+ mph EV) is one of the lowest marks on the board. Everything seems like it’s going to be okay and probably even better today. The Diamondbacks have been awful on the road (15.7 K-BB% on the road) and even worse against LHP (17.2 K-BB%). Put them in an extremely negative run environment in LA and they are probably the best matchup on the board.
Corey Kluber has struck out at least 10 in four straight starts and six of eight. He’s not Kershaw…well, actually, he kind of has been. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings, his 27.1 K-BB% would be third. Remove his first two starts and it’s 30%, behind only Sale. Better than average contact management not required in this case. San Diego (17.8 K-BB% vs RHP) will generally supply the weak contact on their own (5.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Jameson Taillon has just league average peripherals with both his walk and strikeout rates with the concern being a well below average SwStr%. Contact management is disputable as well. His 53 GB% is not, but his 3.0 Hard-Soft% comes along with 38.5% of his contact above 95 mph. Something seems a bit off, but he’s in a great spot in Philadelphia tonight (10.2 HR/FB, 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP).
Jimmy Nelson has a 23.9 K% since May 11th (10 starts). The real transformation has been against LHBs though. A career .344 wOBA vs lefties, it’s been .272 over this span. They’re still hitting him hard (35.7%), but they’re hitting him much less often (32.8 K-BB%). This has been the key to his breakout and one I’d love to have more time to dissect on a later slate. The problem today may be that he’s facing a predominantly RH offense, though not a very good one (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP). Against RHBs, his .307 career wOBA has actually increased over this span (.328), but with a 15.3 K-BB%, 57.7 GB% and -2.0 Hard-Soft%, so perhaps all is not lost.
Jon Lester has peripherals not as good as his last three season, but consistent or even better in some cases than career rates. His 16.9 K-BB% is borderline All-Star quality and while his hard contact rate is an exceptional 26%, the same as his career rate, his weak contact has increased (2.2 Hard-Soft%). An 84.9 mph aEV and 26.1% 95+ mph EV back that up. His 11.1 SwStr% ties a career high. He’s facing a team with power, but less so against LHP this season. Their high strikeout rate remains either way (26% on the road and vs LHP). Additionally, they lose a DH at Wrigley tonight.
Yu Darvish has had an inconsistent season with his lowest K-BB (18.1%) since his rookie season, but that’s still pretty damn good and he’s shown glimpses of dominance. His strikeout rate over the last month is near 30% despite no more than six in three of his last four starts. There are some concerns today, partially that he’s does not excel at contact management in a difficult park. Also, the Red Sox are visiting. While that’s not terrible in itself this year, the offense has picked up (2.9 K-BB% last seven days) and they don’t strike out a lot (18.6% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Michael Fulmer (.287 – 70.6% – 4.6) has struck out 15 of his last 58 batters over 15.2 innings in his last two starts. His SwStr% for the month has projected a few more strikeouts and his 10.1% season rate suggests he may be able to get back above league average again. HR suppression is not likely persist at this level though. At just under $10K, he might be a reasonable choice hosting the Giants (9.1 HR/FB vs RHP) on a more standard slate.
David Price (.259 – 73% – 14.0) is coming off one of his best starts of the season (7 IP – 3 ER – 0 BB – 7 K), making it two quality starts in a row. It may still not be up to his usual standards yet, but it’s a move in a positive direction. Contact has been…interesting with an 85.4 mph aEV, but 10.7% Barrels/BBE. I tend to take that as a positive sign, valuing the aEV a bit more. While the park can be a neutralizing factor, the Rangers have been terrible against LHP (27.1 K%). Although he makes the cut most nights, he barely misses on this super talented slate.
Lance Lynn (.218 – 80.8% – 20) may be employable at home against predominantly RH lineups. The Marlins don’t exactly qualify, but enough of their power is from the RH side (.270 wOBA this season) to consider him for around $7K, though he has been getting smoked (seven HRs last three starts).
Sean Newcomb (.250 – 85.4% – 4.8) has a 13.3 K-BB% that’s a bit above average and the surprise has really been his walk rate being under control after a double digit rate at nearly every stop in the minors. Although, the strikeout rate is merely average as well. He has the worst non-Coors spot on the board today too.
Kyle Freeland (.297 – 78.4% – 13.8)
Jose Urena (.249 – 77.2% – 9.2)
James Shields (.239 – 86.4% – 14.9%)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
J.A. Happ still has a career 23.6 K% and 10.0 SwStr%, but has now struck out five or less in five of his last seven starts, exceeding a double digit SwStr% just twice as well. His 89.1 mph aEV and 40.2% 95+ mph EV are even more dangerous in Yankee Stadium, though the Yankee lineup is a bit depleted at the moment.
JC Ramirez is not a terrible bet at a low price against a floundering Minnesota offense. His SwStr rate (at least 9% in each of his last five starts) has been more impressive than his K% over the last week, but his hard contact rate hasn’t been below 30% in a start in two months.
Felix Hernandez hasn’t been that bad since returning from the DL and is in a nice spot hosting the Royals, but his 19.6 K% is just ordinary and his 11.2% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board with a career low 48 GB% thus far.
Trevor Cahill hit the disabled list with a shoulder issue nearly two months ago amid the best season of his career. He had a 29.5 K% and 60.2 GB% at the time. He’s made just two rehab starts (one at AAA), facing just 25 total batters. As with other returning starters today, potential workload limitations are an easy cop out towards omission on a monster slate.
Danny Duffy faced just 18 batters in his second of two rehab starts from an oblique injury and is likely to have a work load limitation that will make it difficult for him to exceed his cost.
Patrick Corbin has been better over the last month, facing the Phillies twice and the Padres, but is in an ugly spot in Dodgerland tonight.
Mark Leiter has not looked terrible in two starts, but his SwStr% can’t nearly support his K%. He hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact (0.0 Hard-Soft% for the season), but has just a 33.3 GB% in his two starts. He is in a reasonable spot against the Pirates and I could see why he might draw some interest as an SP2 next to an expensive option.
C.C. Sabathia has missed three weeks with a hamstring injury. In two rehab starts below AAA, he faced just 12 and 18 batters.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.1% | Road | 27.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 17.8% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.7% | Home | 21.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.6% | 8.1% | Road | 24.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 3.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 3.3% | Home | 31.9% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 5.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 6.2% | Home | 29.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 3.6% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.1% | 3.3% | Home | 23.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 2.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.0% | 7.2% | Road | 26.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | ||
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 24.8% | 5.8% | Road | 20.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 1.9% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.0% | Home | 19.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 8.0% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 21.5% | 8.3% | Road | 26.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 15.2% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.8% | 6.7% | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 3.8% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 18.4% | 10.5% | Road | 14.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.4% | 5.6% | Road | 21.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 18.2% | 6.8% | Road | 18.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 2.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.1% | 9.0% | Home | 21.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 38.0% | 8.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.4% | 6.4% | Home | 25.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 14.5% | 8.1% | Road | 15.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 6.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 13.5% | 8.8% | Home | 16.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.6% | 8.8% | Home | 15.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 11.6% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.3% | 9.9% | Home | 19.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 18.0% | 11.7% | Home | 18.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 2.2% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.1% | Road | 13.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.2% | Home | 18.4% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 6.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.4% | Road | 17.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.2% | Home | 17.8% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 4.4% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 26.7% | 11.0% | Road | 25.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.1% | 10.7% | Road | 19.5% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 8.0% | Home | 28.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 2.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 19.2% | 7.4% | RH | 19.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 4.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.2% | 8.7% | LH | 21.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 26.3% | 8.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 10.2% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.1% | 6.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.8% | 8.1% | LH | 24.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.4% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Road | 26.5% | 7.6% | RH | 25.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.8% | 9.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 6.1% | RH | 22.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 10.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.0% | 9.5% | LH | 18.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.0% | 9.3% | LH | 27.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 8.6% |
| Royals | Road | 21.2% | 6.1% | RH | 20.7% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.6% | 4.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.7% | 7.3% | RH | 22.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.8% | 10.6% | LH | 22.7% | 11.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.1% | 9.3% | RH | 25.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 33.2% | 11.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.2% | 8.5% | RH | 23.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.2% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 10.7% | RH | 22.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.6% | 6.5% | RH | 22.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.5% |
| Rays | Road | 26.0% | 8.9% | LH | 26.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.2% | 9.9% | RH | 21.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.1% | 12.0% |
| Reds | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | LH | 20.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.0% |
| Angels | Road | 21.5% | 8.9% | RH | 20.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.8% | 6.3% | RH | 20.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.5% | 8.6% | RH | 18.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.1% | 8.9% | RH | 22.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.6% |
| Giants | Road | 18.9% | 8.3% | RH | 19.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 10.7% | LH | 21.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 10.5% |
| Astros | Road | 18.1% | 8.9% | LH | 17.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 15.1% | 6.5% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.6% | RH | 19.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.8% | 9.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.1% | 8.5% | RH | 24.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 9.1% | RH | 18.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.0% | 13.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 2017 | 29.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | Road | 30.8% | 11.1% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 0.0% | -13.7% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.3% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 2017 | 32.7% | 13.4% | 12.8% | Home | 27.6% | 15.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 35.5% | 13.0% | 19.2% | 2017 | 39.7% | 10.7% | 23.5% | Road | 34.3% | 18.5% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 47.5% | 15.4% | 30.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.9% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 2017 | 29.0% | 17.2% | 3.7% | Home | 29.8% | 11.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 23.5% | 2.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 2017 | 31.4% | 12.9% | 9.6% | Home | 27.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 9.1% | 2.2% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 36.8% | 22.7% | 15.7% | 2017 | 36.8% | 22.7% | 15.7% | Home | 40.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 18.8% | 10.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 31.6% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 2017 | 28.3% | 5.1% | 12.7% | Road | 31.2% | 12.1% | 12.9% | L14 Days | |||
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 2017 | 35.0% | 14.0% | 15.5% | Road | 33.7% | 12.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.8% | 16.5% | 12.4% | 2017 | 30.4% | 27.3% | 13.6% | Home | 31.9% | 16.3% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 27.3% | 25.8% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 32.7% | 21.7% | 17.4% | 2017 | 39.1% | 60.0% | 26.1% | Road | 28.3% | 0.0% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 60.0% | 26.1% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 33.1% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 2017 | 32.7% | 15.4% | 15.4% | Road | 30.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.6% | 17.2% | 16.2% | 2017 | 33.7% | 14.6% | 11.6% | Road | 35.1% | 15.4% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 17.6% | 28.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.4% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 2017 | 28.1% | 12.8% | 2.9% | Road | 30.7% | 18.5% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 11.1% | -17.2% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.0% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 2017 | 38.5% | 18.9% | 22.6% | Road | 33.3% | 17.5% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 40.0% | 15.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 2017 | 31.5% | 12.7% | 9.6% | Home | 31.8% | 13.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 33.3% | 14.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.8% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 2017 | 26.0% | 13.6% | 2.2% | Home | 26.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 20.0% | -12.2% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.8% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 2017 | 30.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | Road | 31.6% | 11.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.8% | 8.7% | 2017 | 31.5% | 13.8% | 8.7% | Home | 28.7% | 10.7% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 17.6% | -4.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 2017 | 37.6% | 18.8% | 22.1% | Home | 33.3% | 17.7% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 33.3% | 11.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 2017 | 31.5% | 20.0% | 11.3% | Home | 21.6% | 15.2% | -1.0% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 2017 | 22.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% | Home | 15.4% | 0.0% | -19.2% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 18.8% | 9.1% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.3% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 2017 | 32.8% | 13.5% | 16.4% | Road | 33.2% | 15.2% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 40.0% | 17.5% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 2017 | 27.0% | 4.6% | 9.1% | Home | 32.9% | 7.6% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 0.0% | -2.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.5% | 16.2% | 19.4% | 2017 | 33.9% | 16.7% | 16.6% | Road | 34.6% | 20.2% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 0.0% | -12.8% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 26.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 2017 | 26.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | Home | 22.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 0.0% | 24.2% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 31.3% | 16.7% | 8.5% | 2017 | 33.0% | 11.1% | 8.7% | Road | 38.0% | 17.6% | 17.7% | L14 Days | |||
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 2017 | 34.9% | 20.3% | 17.9% | Road | 32.1% | 11.7% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 16.7% | 22.5% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 2017 | 33.9% | 13.4% | 16.4% | Home | 35.4% | 14.8% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 0.0% | 26.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 29.1% | 11.7% | 9.3% | RH | 30.8% | 11.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.7% | 4.3% | 6.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.1% | 15.1% | 13.1% | LH | 30.3% | 13.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 29.4% | 8.5% | 2.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.5% | 16.7% | 13.4% | RH | 29.8% | 13.8% | 11.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 16.0% | 5.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.5% | 13.4% | 11.0% | LH | 32.5% | 13.5% | 16.6% | L7Days | 40.7% | 10.0% | 24.7% |
| Padres | Road | 30.0% | 15.1% | 7.6% | RH | 28.6% | 14.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 29.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.1% | 14.1% | 14.8% | RH | 30.7% | 13.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 12.5% | 0.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.1% | 12.4% | 9.7% | LH | 29.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 27.0% | 15.5% | 11.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.1% | 16.9% | 15.9% | LH | 31.4% | 15.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 29.5% | 21.2% | 6.6% |
| Royals | Road | 32.2% | 15.0% | 12.8% | RH | 32.4% | 12.5% | 13.0% | L7Days | 30.3% | 14.0% | 10.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.7% | 15.5% | 10.5% | RH | 29.2% | 12.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.8% | 12.2% | 0.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.5% | 20.3% | 10.5% | LH | 29.7% | 13.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 34.1% | 8.6% | 17.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.2% | 15.0% | 16.2% | RH | 34.3% | 14.8% | 17.5% | L7Days | 31.3% | 13.0% | 13.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.8% | 13.9% | 10.5% | RH | 30.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 34.9% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| Twins | Home | 33.9% | 12.5% | 17.5% | RH | 32.9% | 13.8% | 16.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.1% | 1.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.5% | 13.1% | 15.4% | RH | 30.8% | 15.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 29.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% |
| Rays | Road | 34.7% | 17.4% | 15.4% | LH | 34.9% | 12.3% | 13.7% | L7Days | 31.9% | 13.2% | 10.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.4% | 11.4% | 13.1% | RH | 32.1% | 13.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 42.2% | 8.2% | 29.4% |
| Reds | Road | 29.6% | 13.6% | 10.2% | LH | 28.6% | 16.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.2% | 19.3% | 6.1% |
| Angels | Road | 32.7% | 10.8% | 13.3% | RH | 30.4% | 13.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 7.7% | 12.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.6% | 13.9% | 9.3% | RH | 31.1% | 14.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 30.0% | 8.9% | 10.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.4% | 12.0% | 9.1% | RH | 30.4% | 10.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 33.0% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 48.0% | 14.3% | 34.5% | RH | 42.4% | 12.4% | 27.1% | L7Days | 42.0% | 17.2% | 27.3% |
| Giants | Road | 30.3% | 11.2% | 9.2% | RH | 28.3% | 9.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 29.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.0% | 18.0% | 21.1% | LH | 34.6% | 17.5% | 18.8% | L7Days | 32.1% | 20.6% | 13.6% |
| Astros | Road | 33.6% | 15.2% | 15.7% | LH | 28.7% | 15.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 37.8% | 13.8% | 18.9% |
| Indians | Home | 30.8% | 12.0% | 13.9% | RH | 33.8% | 12.0% | 17.5% | L7Days | 34.8% | 7.5% | 13.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.5% | 19.3% | 17.7% | RH | 33.8% | 19.8% | 14.8% | L7Days | 39.7% | 26.2% | 25.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 11.5% | 13.7% | RH | 35.7% | 10.7% | 18.1% | L7Days | 30.6% | 8.9% | 12.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 35.1% | 13.7% | 2.56 | 32.7% | 13.6% | 2.40 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.7% | 8.9% | 2.21 | 20.9% | 5.0% | 4.18 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 28.6% | 12.9% | 2.22 | 27.7% | 12.8% | 2.16 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 30.1% | 13.1% | 2.30 | 33.3% | 13.9% | 2.40 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 33.4% | 15.1% | 2.21 | 39.7% | 16.5% | 2.41 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 14.1% | 9.0% | 1.57 | 14.1% | 9.0% | 1.57 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 18.8% | 11.7% | 1.61 | |||
| David Price | BOS | 20.3% | 11.2% | 1.81 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 1.82 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 19.6% | 8.4% | 2.33 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 2.86 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 12.1% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 12.1% | 12.9% | 0.94 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.36 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 2.24 |
| James Shields | CHW | 18.4% | 9.2% | 2.00 | 13.9% | 8.3% | 1.67 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 20.5% | 7.9% | 2.59 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.97 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 19.5% | 9.8% | 1.99 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 1.72 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 25.7% | 11.4% | 2.25 | 28.5% | 13.4% | 2.13 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.8% | 11.1% | 2.23 | 25.5% | 11.0% | 2.32 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 14.8% | 9.0% | 1.64 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 1.62 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 13.5% | 6.8% | 1.99 | 11.9% | 8.0% | 1.49 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.1% | 9.1% | 1.55 | 11.9% | 7.1% | 1.68 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.43 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 2.53 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 18.0% | 6.0% | 3.00 | 24.4% | 7.1% | 3.44 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 13.0% | 4.7% | 2.77 | 9.2% | 3.8% | 2.42 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 17.8% | 11.1% | 1.60 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 19.2% | 10.0% | 1.92 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 2.04 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 21.4% | 10.9% | 1.96 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 1.96 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 29.5% | 13.8% | 2.14 | |||
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 19.0% | 7.7% | 2.47 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 2.48 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 26.7% | 11.4% | 2.34 | 28.7% | 12.2% | 2.35 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 2.72 | 3.67 | 0.95 | 3.46 | 0.74 | 2.4 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 1.00 | 3.33 | 4.23 | 0.9 | 3.66 | 0.33 | 3.02 | -0.31 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.46 | 4.36 | 0.9 | 4.16 | 0.7 | 4.13 | 0.67 | 4.63 | 1.17 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.93 | 2.93 | 1.89 | 1.89 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.92 | 3.49 | -0.43 | 3.44 | -0.48 | 3.07 | -0.85 | 2.41 | -1.51 | 4.35 | 3.31 | -1.04 | 3.32 | -1.03 | 3.69 | -0.66 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.32 | 3.01 | 0.69 | 2.85 | 0.53 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 2.66 | 0.34 | 2.43 | 3.01 | 0.58 | 2.92 | 0.49 | 3.71 | 1.28 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.02 | 2.87 | -0.15 | 2.69 | -0.33 | 2.61 | -0.41 | 2.30 | -0.72 | 1.46 | 2.02 | 0.56 | 1.8 | 0.34 | 1.14 | -0.32 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 5.57 | 4.49 | -1.08 | 4.2 | -1.37 | 5.43 | -0.14 | 7.53 | 1.96 | 5.57 | 4.49 | -1.08 | 4.2 | -1.37 | 5.43 | -0.14 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.54 | 4.82 | 1.28 | 4.84 | 1.3 | 3.55 | 0.01 | 4.59 | 1.05 | |||||||
| David Price | BOS | 4.61 | 4.61 | 0 | 4.88 | 0.27 | 4.92 | 0.31 | 4.84 | 0.23 | 4.5 | 4.59 | 0.09 | 4.81 | 0.31 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.66 | 3.92 | -0.74 | 3.66 | -1 | 5.16 | 0.5 | 3.65 | -1.01 | 4.5 | 4.26 | -0.24 | 3.94 | -0.56 | 5.56 | 1.06 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 27 | 6.31 | -20.69 | 7.2 | -19.8 | 13.64 | -13.36 | 10.71 | -16.29 | 27 | 6.35 | -20.65 | 7.2 | -19.8 | 13.64 | -13.36 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.71 | 3.65 | -0.06 | 3.49 | -0.22 | 3.71 | 0 | 3.91 | 0.20 | 3.19 | 3.94 | 0.75 | 3.76 | 0.57 | 2.76 | -0.43 |
| James Shields | CHW | 3.98 | 5.47 | 1.49 | 6.1 | 2.12 | 6.27 | 2.29 | 6.43 | 2.45 | 6.6 | 5.66 | -0.94 | 6.54 | -0.06 | 7.28 | 0.68 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 2.97 | 4.18 | 1.21 | 3.81 | 0.84 | 3.73 | 0.76 | 3.82 | 0.85 | 2.42 | 4.02 | 1.6 | 3.62 | 1.2 | 3.01 | 0.59 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.6 | 4.23 | -0.37 | 4.14 | -0.46 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 3.98 | -0.62 | 5.81 | 4.23 | -1.58 | 4.26 | -1.55 | 5.46 | -0.35 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.43 | 3.54 | 0.11 | 3.38 | -0.05 | 3.27 | -0.16 | 3.37 | -0.06 | 3.58 | 3.2 | -0.38 | 3.1 | -0.48 | 3.54 | -0.04 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.69 | 3.88 | 0.19 | 3.64 | -0.05 | 3.63 | -0.06 | 3.07 | -0.62 | 3.41 | 3.74 | 0.33 | 3.45 | 0.04 | 3.71 | 0.3 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.42 | 5.23 | 1.81 | 5.55 | 2.13 | 4.79 | 1.37 | 5.60 | 2.18 | 2.79 | 4.95 | 2.16 | 5.26 | 2.47 | 3.56 | 0.77 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.84 | 5.01 | 1.17 | 4.87 | 1.03 | 4.87 | 1.03 | 5.40 | 1.56 | 4.5 | 4.82 | 0.32 | 4.64 | 0.14 | 5.14 | 0.64 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.11 | 5.34 | -0.77 | 5.11 | -1 | 5.76 | -0.35 | 6.98 | 0.87 | 4.45 | 5.35 | 0.9 | 4.95 | 0.5 | 6 | 1.55 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.9 | 4.42 | 0.52 | 4.55 | 0.65 | 5.41 | 1.51 | 5.14 | 1.24 | 6.15 | 4.5 | -1.65 | 4.72 | -1.43 | 6.64 | 0.49 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 4.2 | 4.94 | 0.74 | 4.89 | 0.69 | 5.28 | 1.08 | 4.36 | 0.16 | 3.27 | 3.64 | 0.37 | 4.01 | 0.74 | 4.96 | 1.69 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.46 | 5.47 | 0.01 | 5.24 | -0.22 | 5.21 | -0.25 | 8.21 | 2.75 | 7.77 | 5.8 | -1.97 | 5.52 | -2.25 | 7.21 | -0.56 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.19 | 4.18 | 0.99 | 3.96 | 0.77 | 2.95 | -0.24 | 2.83 | -0.36 | 3.71 | 4.29 | 0.58 | 3.82 | 0.11 | 2.62 | -1.09 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.76 | 4.22 | -0.54 | 4.09 | -0.67 | 4.47 | -0.29 | 5.88 | 1.12 | 2.96 | 3.52 | 0.56 | 3.3 | 0.34 | 2.44 | -0.52 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 1.48 | 4.26 | 2.78 | 3.94 | 2.46 | 2.94 | 1.46 | 4.99 | 3.51 | 1.48 | 4.26 | 2.78 | 3.94 | 2.46 | 2.94 | 1.46 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 3.27 | 3.47 | 0.2 | 3.22 | -0.05 | 3 | -0.27 | 2.49 | -0.78 | |||||||
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.48 | 4.89 | -1.59 | 4.84 | -1.64 | 5.75 | -0.73 | 6.20 | -0.28 | 6.12 | 4.17 | -1.95 | 4.27 | -1.85 | 4.94 | -1.18 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.11 | 3.86 | 0.75 | 3.79 | 0.68 | 3.75 | 0.64 | 2.58 | -0.53 | 3.06 | 3.11 | 0.05 | 3.1 | 0.04 | 2.93 | -0.13 |
Clayton Kershaw has a .250 BABIP with an excellent profile and a career .270 mark. That can probably be balanced out with a 17.2 HR/FB we’d expect to regress, but the 88.8 LOB% is 10 points above his elite career rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.295 | 0.294 | -0.001 | 42.7% | 0.214 | 8.1% | 77.7% | 86.6 | 1.30% | 0.70% | 75 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.288 | 0.281 | -0.007 | 49.8% | 0.199 | 3.0% | 88.3% | 86.4 | 5.10% | 3.70% | 216 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.290 | 0.319 | 0.029 | 42.7% | 0.215 | 11.7% | 82.3% | 89.1 | 6.30% | 3.80% | 240 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.280 | 0.250 | -0.03 | 45.8% | 0.198 | 12.1% | 82.8% | 85.3 | 6.40% | 4.30% | 265 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.304 | 0.289 | -0.015 | 48.9% | 0.181 | 9.7% | 80.8% | 87 | 6.50% | 3.90% | 169 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.296 | 0.268 | -0.028 | 48.0% | 0.227 | 0.0% | 89.2% | ||||
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.300 | 0.322 | 0.022 | 40.0% | 0.205 | 11.4% | 85.6% | 87.3 | 4.90% | 3.50% | 206 |
| David Price | BOS | 0.306 | 0.259 | -0.047 | 39.8% | 0.195 | 12.0% | 86.7% | 85.4 | 10.70% | 7.30% | 103 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.280 | 0.368 | 0.088 | 48.0% | 0.252 | 6.1% | 92.7% | 86.9 | 11.20% | 8.30% | 125 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.290 | 0.450 | 0.16 | 45.5% | 0.318 | 0.0% | 86.4% | ||||
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.306 | 0.291 | -0.015 | 44.5% | 0.219 | 5.8% | 85.6% | 89.1 | 8.50% | 6.10% | 117 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.283 | 0.239 | -0.044 | 32.6% | 0.168 | 8.3% | 84.4% | 87.8 | 7.80% | 5.20% | 64 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.304 | 0.319 | 0.015 | 53.0% | 0.235 | 7.7% | 90.0% | 87.7 | 5.80% | 4.00% | 104 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.286 | 0.297 | 0.011 | 47.0% | 0.21 | 6.7% | 86.5% | 87.6 | 6.80% | 5.10% | 264 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.331 | 0.031 | 49.8% | 0.204 | 3.8% | 85.5% | 85.6 | 4.60% | 3.10% | 216 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.286 | 0.301 | 0.015 | 48.7% | 0.193 | 6.8% | 84.2% | 84.9 | 4.20% | 2.80% | 264 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.291 | 0.249 | -0.042 | 39.9% | 0.189 | 11.2% | 88.2% | 85.7 | 9.70% | 7.20% | 186 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.295 | 0.297 | 0.002 | 56.4% | 0.172 | 13.8% | 91.3% | 85.4 | 4.20% | 3.20% | 263 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.294 | 0.341 | 0.047 | 50.2% | 0.214 | 2.9% | 89.9% | 88.4 | 7.80% | 5.70% | 179 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.294 | 0.218 | -0.076 | 43.3% | 0.18 | 7.4% | 80.6% | 86.2 | 7.30% | 4.80% | 218 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.301 | 0.212 | -0.089 | 49.4% | 0.169 | 3.3% | 90.3% | 84.6 | 6.70% | 4.70% | 75 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.317 | 0.336 | 0.019 | 44.4% | 0.231 | 7.3% | 92.2% | 87.9 | 5.00% | 3.90% | 299 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.287 | -0.022 | 50.3% | 0.211 | 14.9% | 86.9% | 85.8 | 4.10% | 3.10% | 292 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.289 | 0.334 | 0.045 | 51.5% | 0.184 | 12.2% | 87.3% | 89.1 | 7.80% | 5.80% | 244 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.284 | 0.250 | -0.034 | 48.5% | 0.206 | 9.5% | 85.3% | 87.2 | 2.80% | 1.90% | 36 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 0.301 | 0.300 | -0.001 | 60.2% | 0.136 | 11.1% | 87.0% | 85.9 | 4.90% | 2.90% | 103 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.314 | 0.272 | -0.042 | 45.8% | 0.191 | 10.1% | 88.3% | 87.5 | 8.10% | 5.60% | 186 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.290 | 0.253 | -0.037 | 41.5% | 0.228 | 6.2% | 84.5% | 86.9 | 7.50% | 4.70% | 226 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) is back to striking out the world and all appears to be nearly fine. I guess we’d just like to see some more eight inning outings, but that could be coming tonight in a great spot. He’s not even the highest priced pitcher on the board by all that much.
Value Tier Two
Corey Kluber (2) has been every bit as good as Kershaw this season and maybe better. The cost difference is negligible. The difference may be in the matchup. It may sound strange to see, but considering park factors and the addition of a DH, the Padres may be the tougher draw.
Jon Lester (3) has been pitching well, potentially better than his ERA and estimators when you add in quality contact management. He’s in a nice spot with a potential strikeout rate increase against the Rays tonight.
Value Tier Three
Chris Archer (4) is having a great rebound season. He’s still allowing a lot of hard contact and had been getting away with it up until June. The ERA has been above four over the last month and the strikeouts are down over his last two starts, but velocity has remained stable and the SwStr% hasn’t fallen below average in over two months. Perhaps some caution is warranted with so many great options, but there’s no reason to panic yet and less reason to fear the Cubs at this point.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jimmy Nelson (6) has been difficult to get a handle on and perhaps even more difficult tonight facing a predominantly RH lineup in a power friendly park when most of his improvement has been against LHBs. He’s not necessarily bad against RHBs though and a below average Baltimore offense loses a DH here too.
Brad Peacock is a high upside arm, but the reason that he hasn’t struck out more than 10 in a game with a 35.9 K% is because he’s walked 14.1% of batters. You may get your eight strikeouts, but also only five innings. That’s great if he’s a low cost arm, but he’s nearly $10K on DraftKings now.
Yu Darvish (5) has been inconsistent and is not in an enviable daily fantasy spot hosting the Red Sox, but he’s not someone we don’t even want to consider because he has the talent to put up the top score on any slate. His best outing of the season was in Yankee Stadium.
Jameson Taillon may have some concealed flaws in his game and costs a bit more than average, but he’s facing the Phillies.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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