Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 10th
There are just two of them tomorrow, which is a little light for a Thursday, but I just wanted to give advanced notice that I might be little late and miss the day games tomorrow. The nine game night slate will be covered as it will tonight with all of Wednesday’s pitchers listed.
A future introduction concerning the league-wide BABIP drop is still in the plans, but may have to wait a few days due to timing issues.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -6.5 | 3.43 | 5.01 | 52.6% | 0.93 | 4.04 | 2.23 | ANA | 76 | 89 | 92 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -7.2 | 4.6 | 4.81 | 43.5% | 0.89 | 4.3 | 3.26 | LOS | 124 | 114 | 124 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -11.5 | 4.54 | 5.3 | 38.5% | 1.02 | 4.68 | 5.06 | BOS | 121 | 110 | 150 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 7.7 | 3.37 | 6.22 | 45.2% | 0.96 | 2.67 | 2.78 | KAN | 67 | 75 | 78 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -10.8 | 3.66 | 5.79 | 44.8% | 1.03 | 3.01 | 3.74 | TOR | 66 | 75 | 65 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.5 | 4.77 | 5.66 | 38.9% | 0.98 | 4.19 | 4.16 | MIN | 105 | 79 | 109 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -3.1 | 3.98 | 5.59 | 51.9% | 1.03 | 2.82 | 5.36 | CLE | 91 | 79 | 73 |
| German Marquez | COL | -1.3 | 4.35 | 5.18 | 50.8% | 1.39 | 5.96 | 4.7 | CHC | 102 | 90 | 71 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 5.1 | 3.87 | 5.89 | 57.2% | 0.94 | 4.97 | 6.92 | HOU | 124 | 105 | 141 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 7.6 | 4 | 5.35 | 39.8% | 0.96 | 7.33 | 3.98 | TAM | 116 | 104 | 94 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -0.9 | 3.96 | 5.76 | 43.3% | 0.93 | 4.35 | 5.16 | OAK | 114 | 102 | 124 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | -2.4 | 4.17 | 5.57 | 42.4% | 0.94 | 4.62 | 4.05 | ATL | 91 | 91 | 58 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | -3.4 | 3.66 | 5.43 | 42.1% | 0.89 | 3.29 | 2.82 | PIT | 77 | 84 | 57 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 2.2 | 3.59 | 5.96 | 49.6% | 1.39 | 4.09 | 4.37 | COL | 84 | 76 | 99 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | 0 | 5.17 | 5.14 | 37.5% | 1.02 | 6.53 | MIL | 100 | 93 | 106 | |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -16.6 | 4.19 | 5.65 | 46.3% | 0.94 | 4.23 | 3.96 | MIA | 81 | 85 | 118 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 1.3 | 3.93 | 5.8 | 60.2% | 1.11 | 2.39 | 2.46 | TEX | 92 | 97 | 80 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 6.6 | 4.64 | 5.03 | 36.5% | 1.13 | 5.44 | 5.01 | ARI | 114 | 76 | 50 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 3.5 | 4.75 | 5.06 | 37.6% | 0.91 | 6.99 | 4.81 | NYM | 75 | 93 | 126 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 12.2 | 4.69 | 5.7 | 35.4% | 0.98 | 5.29 | 4.81 | CHW | 93 | 67 | 64 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -8.9 | 2.99 | 6.02 | 42.5% | 1.01 | 3.87 | 5.06 | BAL | 100 | 99 | 121 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 7 | 4.78 | 5.59 | 44.1% | 0.94 | 5.1 | 5.04 | STL | 103 | 107 | 119 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | -4.7 | 4.29 | 5.24 | 43.0% | 0.91 | 4.51 | 3.92 | SFO | 72 | 76 | 57 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -4.3 | 4.16 | 5.84 | 48.3% | 1.01 | 2.79 | 5.3 | WAS | 125 | 157 | 88 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.5 | 4.92 | 5.42 | 0.464 | 0.96 | 3.3 | 4.45 | PHI | 114 | 96 | 108 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | -1.6 | 3.37 | 6.08 | 0.395 | 1.11 | 3.88 | 4.35 | SDG | 77 | 82 | 61 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 13 | 5.2 | 5.94 | 0.395 | 0.96 | 5.18 | 4.08 | SEA | 96 | 118 | 155 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -8.1 | 4.16 | 5.14 | 0.517 | 1.13 | 4.06 | 4.12 | DET | 104 | 111 | 92 |
Chris Archer struck out a season high 11 Blue Jays in his last start. It’s the third time he’s struck out eight or more, while generating exactly five in his other four starts. He’s had a difficult road against only AL East teams and Detroit, yet comes away from this stretch with strong numbers, despite ground balls being down (37.2%) and hard contact being up (39.3%). He’s rewarded with one of the top matchups on the board against the Royals. However, the Royals have gained 21% offensively against power pitchers (106 sOPS+ via Baseball-Reference) despite their increased strikeout rates.
Danny Salazar has struck out at least six in every start and even only that few once. Part of the issue has been a 10.7 BB% that’s only allowed him to pitch into the seventh inning once. He, too, has seen a decrease in ground balls (37.5%), though he’s decreased hard contact too (28%). The Blue Jays have been awful, especially at home (17.1 K-BB%, 27.7 Hard%).
Francisco Liriano has struck out more than he’s walked in just three of his six starts, completing six innings in only his second start. His 16.0 BB% is double the league average, though the contact has improved this year (27.4 Hard%) and he still retains a strong strikeout rate. The reason to potentially consider him tonight is that he may be in a sneakily strong spot. Cleveland does not have poor peripherals, but have been a poor offense both on the road and against LHP. Additionally, they have just an 88 sOPS+ against power pitchers.
Kenta Maeda has only gone more than five innings once, but has struck out eight in each of his last two starts. The SwStr% has been elite, at least 9.9% in every start, above 12.5% in five of six. There was a theory that his four-seam was the source of his misery with suggesting that he move back towards his sinker, but he just decided to reduce his usage of fastballs altogether (below 30% last two starts) with a payoff in results. The Pirates are one of the top run prevention matchups on the board, though they don’t strike out a ton. This is a pretty poor lineup right now though, with just a 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP.
Luis Perdomo has a league average SwStr (9.2%) rate and elite ground ball rate (69.1%). He showed some potential with slightly lower rates last year. In addition, this year his hard contact rate (20.6%) has dropped over 10 points. The sample size is still small after just four starts, but he’s building on glimpses shown last season. A trip to Texas is dangerous, but he’s only allowed 11 fly ball this season and the Rangers are not a great offense (23.5 K% vs RHP).
Zack Godley is in a pretty terrible spot at home against the Tigers. However, he does have an 11.5 SwStr% through 116 career innings with a league average strikeout rate (19.7%). He also had a 51.7 GB% with a hard contact rate around average too (31.8%). He also has a strikeout rate around 25% in 56.2 AAA innings.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Yu Darvish (.231 – 84.1% – 13.5) has gone at least six innings in all but one start and has struck out at least eight in three of seven. However, he’s walked eight of his last 53 batters and struck out five or fewer four times. His 37.5 GB% equals his 37.2 Hard% this season. He’s still in a nice spot against the Padres (25.3 K% vs RHP), but they also have an impressive 16.3 HR/FB against RHP and get a significant park bump tonight. He and Strasburg are still probably top five overall arms for me tonight, but there’s been a bit of decline here. His SwStr% is only league average this year.
Stephen Strasburg (.272 – 77.7% – 5.6) is the real surprise here. While his 15.3 K-BB% is still above average, but about a touchdown below his career rate. He failed to go seven innings for the first time last time out, but didn’t allow a run despite walking four. He’s struck out only seven of his last 52 batters with an unsustainably low HR rate the reason for his low ERA. The contact has been exceptional (52.6 GB%, 2.6 Hard-Soft%), but he has allowed Barrels on a fairly high percentage of plate appearances (6.1) and faced a difficult lineup, even with the potential loss of Trumbo tonight. That may actually reduce his strikeout potential. He and Darvish are certainly the cutoff tonight and still top five overall arms on the slate.
Wade Miley left his last start after just a few batters after taking a few batted balls off his person. While the strikeouts are way up, the SwStr rate doesn’t come close to supporting it and he’s walked at least five in three of the five starts he didn’t have to leave for safety reasons. Washington has been destroying LHP.
Derek Holland (.220 – 68.8% – 6.4) has a perfectly league average 12.2 K-BB% and that’s a good thing considering what his last few years have looked like, even though his ERA is much lower (half his runs have been unearned). He’s allowing a lot of hard contact (38.2%) in the air and that will likely hurt him sooner than later in that park. Minnesota has been surprisingly poor vs LHP (4.2 HR/FB), but have a few lefty-mashers.
Lance Lynn (.234 – 87.9% – 12.1%) is where I’ll continue to get a lot of grief. He’s returned to be close to what his peripherals say he was pre-surgery and that’s about a league average pitcher, who often benefited from a power suppressing park. He has significant issues against LHBs (.388 wOBA this year, .343 career) with a 40 point increase in wOBA on the road. The other side of this coin though, is that this is that he moves to another power suppressing park and does not face a lot of LH power here (Yelich, Bour), but I’d have an issue paying more than $8K for him.
Matt Boyd (.270 – 76.6% – 7.3) is allowing more hard contact than last year (38.8% to 30%). His HR rate shouldn’t be cut in half.
Chase Anderson (.293 – 72.1% – 3.0) isn’t bad, but is in a terrible spot.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Chad Kuhl should accumulate a few more strikeouts and drop his estimators below five, but that still probably doesn’t cut it against the Dodgers.
Phil Hughes is probably unusable against any opponent.
Jason Hammel is in a strong strikeout spot, but not a favorable matchup overall. He’s had just two quality starts where he’s allowed fewer than three runs in more than five innings. He hasn’t done either of those things in any of his other four starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.5% | 5.3% | Home | 16.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 1.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.6% | 7.6% | Road | 19.7% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 3.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.8% | 7.5% | Home | 16.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 12.8% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.8% | 7.8% | Home | 32.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 6.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.6% | 9.2% | Road | 32.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 10.4% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.5% | Home | 22.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.3% | 10.8% | Home | 31.4% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 20.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.5% | Home | 10.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 9.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.3% | Road | 13.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 19.2% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.5% | Road | 16.3% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 12.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.1% | Road | 14.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.6% | Home | 19.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 8.9% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 7.0% | Home | 26.2% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.3% | Road | 21.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 10.3% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Red Sox | L2 Years | 12.3% | 7.2% | Road | L14 Days | 4.6% | 9.1% | ||
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.9% | 9.4% | Road | 23.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 8.0% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.3% | 6.9% | Road | 19.2% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 4.1% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.1% | Road | 13.1% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 8.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 17.0% | 8.3% | Road | 11.0% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 13.6% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 13.5% | 3.5% | Road | 14.3% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 3.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 6.3% | Home | 16.3% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.2% | 10.4% | Home | 9.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 7.9% |
| Tommy Milone | Mets | L2 Years | 16.9% | 5.8% | Home | 14.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.8% | Road | 32.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 18.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.6% | 9.8% | Road | 24.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.9% | 8.7% | Home | 25.7% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 15.1% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 11.5% | 5.4% | Home | 12.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.7% | 8.9% | Home | 27.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 13.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Road | 22.3% | 7.9% | RH | 21.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 5.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.7% | 9.4% | RH | 20.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.3% | 9.8% | RH | 16.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 13.4% | 11.4% |
| Royals | Road | 22.6% | 7.0% | RH | 20.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 24.2% | 7.1% | RH | 22.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.5% |
| Twins | Road | 18.6% | 9.7% | LH | 20.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.2% |
| Indians | Road | 19.2% | 9.7% | LH | 18.6% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.7% | 10.4% | RH | 22.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 11.5% |
| Astros | Home | 17.5% | 7.6% | LH | 18.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.4% |
| Rays | Home | 25.0% | 10.1% | RH | 26.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.1% | 8.5% | RH | 24.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.8% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 7.0% | RH | 19.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.7% | 9.2% | RH | 18.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 20.7% | 6.6% | RH | 22.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.3% | 9.4% | RH | 24.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.3% | 7.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.9% | 8.9% | RH | 23.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 8.3% | LH | 23.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 29.0% | 9.8% |
| Mets | Home | 19.4% | 9.1% | RH | 19.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 14.9% | 9.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.8% | 8.7% | RH | 24.1% | 5.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.3% | 6.6% | RH | 20.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 7.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.9% | 7.8% | RH | 20.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.7% |
| Giants | Road | 21.0% | 8.0% | LH | 19.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.9% | 9.9% | LH | 21.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 9.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.9% | 9.7% | RH | 23.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.6% |
| Padres | Road | 26.1% | 6.5% | RH | 25.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 8.8% | RH | 20.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 10.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.7% | 10.8% | RH | 22.1% | 10.7% | L7Days | 26.5% | 11.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 2017 | 24.5% | 3.4% | 12.2% | Home | 25.4% | 5.3% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.1% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 2.9% | 19.0% | Road | 36.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% | 17.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 2017 | 31.0% | 3.0% | 11.0% | Home | 37.0% | 5.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 33.1% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 2017 | 39.3% | 8.0% | 24.5% | Home | 31.8% | 4.5% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 48.4% | 7.1% | 35.5% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 30.3% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 2017 | 28.1% | 12.9% | 13.5% | Road | 32.7% | 11.8% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 16.6% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.9% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 2017 | 38.2% | 6.4% | 20.5% | Home | 38.7% | 9.1% | 22.6% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 8.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.0% | 15.4% | 8.6% | 2017 | 27.4% | 15.0% | 17.8% | Home | 24.4% | 0.0% | 19.5% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.9% | 17.0% | 2017 | 32.7% | 10.0% | 18.1% | Home | 33.3% | 15.4% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 10.0% | 18.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.8% | 14.7% | 9.3% | 2017 | 33.7% | 12.5% | 5.3% | Road | 32.0% | 13.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 17.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.7% | 12.7% | 15.1% | 2017 | 33.0% | 5.9% | 13.7% | Road | 29.6% | 0.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 25.0% | 24.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 2017 | 34.3% | 15.0% | 20.4% | Road | 44.2% | 7.7% | 30.2% | L14 Days | 42.5% | 11.1% | 27.5% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 2017 | 27.2% | 15.0% | 8.7% | Home | 26.2% | 18.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 2017 | 30.3% | 18.4% | 13.4% | Home | 29.6% | 12.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.1% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 2017 | 35.8% | 17.9% | 14.7% | Road | 33.3% | 15.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 7.7% | 13.0% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.7% | 14.9% | 17.4% | 2017 | 26.3% | 14.3% | -21.1% | Road | L14 Days | 26.3% | 14.3% | -21.1% | |||
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 2017 | 31.6% | 12.1% | 14.2% | Road | 36.4% | 20.0% | 22.8% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 10.0% | 12.2% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 32.4% | 20.5% | 15.8% | 2017 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 4.4% | Road | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.8% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 2017 | 38.8% | 7.3% | 18.4% | Road | 45.5% | 8.3% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 10.0% | 15.2% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 2017 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | Road | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 34.7% | 12.3% | 19.5% | 2017 | 43.6% | 9.3% | 29.9% | Road | 45.6% | 7.5% | 29.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.7% | 17.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.7% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2017 | 27.6% | 5.6% | 2.6% | Home | 33.9% | 8.7% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 2017 | 38.5% | 25.0% | 27.5% | Home | 50.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | L14 Days | 57.1% | 21.4% | 53.5% |
| Tommy Milone | Mets | L2 Years | 29.2% | 15.6% | 8.4% | 2017 | 26.7% | 20.0% | -4.0% | Home | 31.8% | 18.8% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 37.5% | 15.7% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 2017 | 35.1% | 13.0% | 17.5% | Road | 29.6% | 20.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 10.0% | 14.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 2017 | 27.9% | 6.5% | 11.7% | Road | 25.5% | 7.1% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 26.5% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 2017 | 37.2% | 13.5% | 23.9% | Home | 41.5% | 13.0% | 26.1% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 9.1% | 26.6% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.4% | 17.0% | 2017 | 34.5% | 9.4% | 20.2% | Home | 33.3% | 9.1% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 15.4% | 24.5% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.8% | 17.6% | 15.2% | 2017 | 38.5% | 20.0% | 23.1% | Home | 38.5% | 20.0% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 20.0% | 23.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Road | 30.8% | 11.0% | 12.2% | RH | 28.8% | 13.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 29.9% | 16.1% | 15.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.6% | 14.4% | 22.5% | RH | 33.0% | 14.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 30.3% | 13.3% | 11.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 36.9% | 10.9% | 17.6% | RH | 38.6% | 10.3% | 20.5% | L7Days | 38.1% | 16.9% | 21.2% |
| Royals | Road | 30.3% | 12.7% | 9.3% | RH | 31.8% | 11.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 37.1% | 6.1% | 22.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 27.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | RH | 30.4% | 12.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 17.5% | 8.4% |
| Twins | Road | 33.8% | 11.5% | 19.2% | LH | 30.9% | 4.2% | 12.7% | L7Days | 30.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Road | 36.0% | 9.2% | 16.9% | LH | 34.5% | 8.5% | 15.9% | L7Days | 31.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.6% | 12.4% | 9.6% | RH | 28.5% | 10.4% | 11.3% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.8% | 4.2% |
| Astros | Home | 28.2% | 16.8% | 7.9% | LH | 24.8% | 17.1% | 4.4% | L7Days | 29.0% | 15.2% | 11.9% |
| Rays | Home | 34.7% | 14.5% | 14.3% | RH | 33.4% | 14.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 33.7% | 14.7% | 12.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 34.5% | 16.8% | 21.6% | RH | 36.7% | 14.6% | 21.7% | L7Days | 43.1% | 14.5% | 35.6% |
| Braves | Road | 30.2% | 12.8% | 10.9% | RH | 30.5% | 10.9% | 11.9% | L7Days | 28.9% | 4.8% | 10.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | RH | 29.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 27.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.7% | 17.8% | 12.7% | RH | 31.3% | 12.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 29.5% | 16.9% | 11.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 39.2% | 21.4% | 19.1% | RH | 33.6% | 20.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 29.6% | 16.7% | 12.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.0% | 14.0% | 9.8% | RH | 29.7% | 12.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 34.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.6% | 16.8% | 16.7% | RH | 33.6% | 17.1% | 14.3% | L7Days | 31.8% | 15.6% | 9.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.0% | 15.6% | 25.6% | LH | 32.1% | 11.5% | 16.2% | L7Days | 32.3% | 13.5% | 11.5% |
| Mets | Home | 30.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | RH | 32.3% | 11.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 43.5% | 4.2% | 24.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | RH | 25.7% | 10.8% | 5.5% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.9% | 5.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.7% | 14.9% | 16.4% | RH | 30.6% | 13.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.8% | 11.5% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 33.4% | 11.2% | 16.3% | RH | 29.6% | 12.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 29.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% |
| Giants | Road | 30.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | LH | 26.3% | 8.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 28.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 33.6% | 15.3% | 18.5% | LH | 35.3% | 21.4% | 17.2% | L7Days | 34.6% | 13.9% | 15.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.0% | 13.7% | 7.3% | RH | 30.0% | 12.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 29.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Padres | Road | 31.0% | 15.4% | 10.4% | RH | 28.3% | 16.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.8% | -4.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 28.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% | RH | 30.1% | 12.3% | 12.3% | L7Days | 28.6% | 13.5% | 11.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.5% | 13.4% | 16.7% | RH | 43.6% | 11.4% | 27.3% | L7Days | 41.6% | 8.1% | 25.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 18.9% | 11.7% | 1.62 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 1.63 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 17.7% | 12.8% | 1.38 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 1.43 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 21.0% | 9.7% | 2.16 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 2.21 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 25.7% | 11.9% | 2.16 | 27.1% | 12.1% | 2.24 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 32.9% | 16.6% | 1.98 | 32.0% | 16.4% | 1.95 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.36 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 24.0% | 11.4% | 2.11 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.10 |
| German Marquez | COL | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.82 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.82 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 13.5% | 9.4% | 1.44 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 1.60 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.18 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 2.33 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 19.9% | 8.7% | 2.29 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 2.38 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 1.94 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 26.3% | 15.2% | 1.73 | 27.7% | 14.8% | 1.87 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 19.7% | 5.9% | 3.34 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.80 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79 | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 21.4% | 9.4% | 2.28 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.14 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 19.2% | 9.2% | 2.09 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 1.97 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 16.2% | 9.9% | 1.64 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 1.73 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 17.5% | 6.4% | 2.73 | 18.6% | 6.3% | 2.95 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.5% | 5.6% | 2.59 | 14.8% | 6.1% | 2.43 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 22.1% | 10.5% | 2.10 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 2.19 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 18.0% | 8.1% | 2.22 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 2.28 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 17.2% | 7.2% | 2.39 | 19.1% | 6.3% | 3.03 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 28.8% | 9.4% | 3.06 | 28.8% | 9.4% | 3.06 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 17.5% | 8.9% | 1.97 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 2.03 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 25.6% | 9.7% | 2.64 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 2.81 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 11.8% | 4.8% | 2.46 | 11.8% | 4.8% | 2.46 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 27.3% | 12.6% | 2.17 | 27.3% | 12.6% | 2.17 |
If Kenta Maeda retains his SwStr%, we might be looking at a future short burst 30 K% arm. This is useful even if he only goes through the lineup twice.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 2.34 | 3.65 | 1.31 | 3.7 | 1.36 | 2.68 | 0.34 | 2.10 | -0.24 | 2.79 | 3.12 | 0.33 | 3.19 | 0.4 | 2.38 | -0.41 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 5.54 | 4.84 | -0.7 | 5.17 | -0.37 | 3.5 | -2.04 | 3.76 | -1.78 | 6 | 4.47 | -1.53 | 4.77 | -1.23 | 3.09 | -2.91 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.86 | 4.18 | 1.32 | 3.98 | 1.12 | 2.77 | -0.09 | 4.86 | 2.00 | 3.14 | 4.07 | 0.93 | 3.79 | 0.65 | 2.34 | -0.8 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.57 | 3.71 | 0.14 | 3.84 | 0.27 | 3.15 | -0.42 | 1.85 | -1.72 | 4.11 | 3.72 | -0.39 | 4 | -0.11 | 3.68 | -0.43 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.28 | 3.2 | -1.08 | 3.22 | -1.06 | 3.24 | -1.04 | 2.23 | -2.05 | 3.86 | 3.17 | -0.69 | 3.36 | -0.5 | 3.03 | -0.83 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 2.02 | 4.35 | 2.33 | 4.77 | 2.75 | 3.67 | 1.65 | 3.51 | 1.49 | 1.82 | 4.47 | 2.65 | 4.87 | 3.05 | 3.94 | 2.12 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 4.44 | 4.8 | 0.36 | 4.49 | 0.05 | 4.71 | 0.27 | 3.30 | -1.14 | 2.77 | 4.33 | 1.56 | 4.06 | 1.29 | 3.85 | 1.08 |
| German Marquez | COL | 7.31 | 4.7 | -2.61 | 4.77 | -2.54 | 4.31 | -3 | 9.71 | 2.40 | 7.31 | 4.7 | -2.61 | 4.77 | -2.54 | 4.31 | -3 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 3.99 | 5.31 | 1.32 | 5.09 | 1.1 | 5.04 | 1.05 | 8.02 | 4.03 | 3.47 | 4.91 | 1.44 | 4.65 | 1.18 | 4.76 | 1.29 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.53 | 4.84 | -0.69 | 5.08 | -0.45 | 3.97 | -1.56 | 4.64 | -0.89 | 5.56 | 4.35 | -1.21 | 4.45 | -1.11 | 3.84 | -1.72 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.46 | 4.33 | -0.13 | 4.25 | -0.21 | 4.57 | 0.11 | 4.47 | 0.01 | 4.99 | 4.53 | -0.46 | 4.45 | -0.54 | 5.15 | 0.16 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 5.4 | 4.52 | -0.88 | 4.63 | -0.77 | 4.99 | -0.41 | 8.64 | 3.24 | 5.74 | 4.2 | -1.54 | 4.31 | -1.43 | 4.69 | -1.05 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 5.81 | 3.5 | -2.31 | 3.65 | -2.16 | 4.55 | -1.26 | 5.43 | -0.38 | 5.88 | 3.31 | -2.57 | 3.47 | -2.41 | 4.42 | -1.46 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.51 | 4.41 | 0.9 | 4.13 | 0.62 | 4.68 | 1.17 | 5.48 | 1.97 | 2.96 | 4.64 | 1.68 | 4.22 | 1.26 | 4.43 | 1.47 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | 13.5 | 6.53 | -6.97 | 6.91 | -6.59 | 7.25 | -6.25 | 7.83 | -5.67 | 13.5 | 6.53 | -6.97 | 6.91 | -6.59 | 7.25 | -6.25 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.04 | 4.04 | 2 | 4.16 | 2.12 | 4.07 | 2.03 | 5.14 | 3.10 | 1.8 | 4.08 | 2.28 | 4.25 | 2.45 | 4.43 | 2.63 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.03 | 3.09 | -0.94 | 3.28 | -0.75 | 3.04 | -0.99 | 4.58 | 0.55 | 2.65 | 3.06 | 0.41 | 3.25 | 0.6 | 2.47 | -0.18 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 3.78 | 5.19 | 1.41 | 5.11 | 1.33 | 4.23 | 0.45 | 4.76 | 0.98 | 2.61 | 4.91 | 2.3 | 4.84 | 2.23 | 3.64 | 1.03 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.7 | 4.94 | 0.24 | 4.91 | 0.21 | 4.17 | -0.53 | 6.78 | 2.08 | 4.1 | 4.77 | 0.67 | 4.67 | 0.57 | 3.26 | -0.84 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.32 | 4.77 | 0.45 | 5.06 | 0.74 | 4.32 | 0 | 5.92 | 1.60 | 4.94 | 4.7 | -0.24 | 4.95 | 0.01 | 4.83 | -0.11 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.66 | 3.66 | 1 | 3.51 | 0.85 | 2.68 | 0.02 | 2.30 | -0.36 | 2.67 | 3.64 | 0.97 | 3.45 | 0.78 | 2.79 | 0.12 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 5.4 | 4.85 | -0.55 | 4.86 | -0.54 | 6.77 | 1.37 | 7.65 | 2.25 | 6.12 | 4.77 | -1.35 | 4.8 | -1.32 | 6.96 | 0.84 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 6.43 | 3.95 | -2.48 | 4.14 | -2.29 | 5.48 | -0.95 | 6.80 | 0.37 | 5.4 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 4.04 | -1.36 | 6.8 | 1.4 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 2.27 | 4.07 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 1.43 | 3.73 | 1.46 | 2.19 | -0.08 | 2.27 | 4.08 | 1.81 | 3.7 | 1.43 | 3.73 | 1.46 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 4.46 | 4.38 | -0.08 | 4.04 | -0.42 | 3.29 | -1.17 | 3.92 | -0.54 | 4.3 | 4.35 | 0.05 | 4 | -0.3 | 2.96 | -1.34 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 2.76 | 4.08 | 1.32 | 3.71 | 0.95 | 3.79 | 1.03 | 3.11 | 0.35 | 2.43 | 3.55 | 1.12 | 3.3 | 0.87 | 3.51 | 1.08 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 2.42 | 4.65 | 2.23 | 4.82 | 2.4 | 4.27 | 1.85 | 3.83 | 1.41 | 2.42 | 4.65 | 2.23 | 4.82 | 2.4 | 4.27 | 1.85 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 3.6 | 4.12 | 0.52 | 4.06 | 0.46 | 5 | 1.4 | 3.17 | -0.43 | 3.6 | 4.12 | 0.52 | 4.06 | 0.46 | 5 | 1.4 |
Kenta Maeda has just a 64.1% strand rate. Four of his seven HRs came in one start in Arizona. Another came in Colorado.
Luis Perdomo also has a low strand rate (62.9%). He has a GB% higher than his LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.275 | 0.267 | -0.008 | 55.2% | 0.171 | 6.9% | 86.5% | 88.8 | 1.90% | 1.40% | 106 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.302 | 0.349 | 0.047 | 41.5% | 0.171 | 5.9% | 83.0% | 87 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 84 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.319 | 0.293 | -0.026 | 40.9% | 0.237 | 12.1% | 85.6% | 84.1 | 3.00% | 2.10% | 100 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.274 | 0.297 | 0.023 | 37.2% | 0.215 | 10.0% | 82.1% | 89.4 | 6.60% | 4.30% | 122 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.305 | 0.385 | 0.08 | 37.5% | 0.238 | 16.1% | 77.8% | 87.7 | 8.50% | 4.70% | 82 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.271 | 0.220 | -0.051 | 36.3% | 0.176 | 6.4% | 86.9% | 89 | 5.90% | 4.10% | 102 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.298 | 0.329 | 0.031 | 48.6% | 0.236 | 0.0% | 83.8% | 87.2 | 6.80% | 4.00% | 73 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.277 | 0.340 | 0.063 | 45.5% | 0.182 | 0.0% | 90.3% | 89.2 | 3.60% | 2.70% | 55 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.289 | 0.242 | -0.047 | 43.6% | 0.223 | 12.5% | 90.8% | 85.7 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 95 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.285 | 0.349 | 0.064 | 37.9% | 0.23 | 8.8% | 88.3% | 88.3 | 4.50% | 3.10% | 88 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.284 | 0.294 | 0.01 | 42.6% | 0.204 | 5.0% | 87.7% | 90 | 6.50% | 4.60% | 108 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.273 | 0.296 | 0.023 | 40.6% | 0.198 | 10.0% | 86.0% | 85.9 | 5.80% | 4.30% | 103 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.291 | 0.305 | 0.014 | 32.1% | 0.226 | 5.3% | 81.4% | 84.7 | 6.70% | 4.50% | 89 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.295 | 0.256 | -0.039 | 49.5% | 0.204 | 10.7% | 93.0% | 85.6 | 5.30% | 3.60% | 95 |
| Kyle Kendrick | BOS | 0.295 | 0.389 | 0.094 | 38.9% | 0.222 | 28.6% | 95.5% | 81.4 | 5.30% | 4.50% | 19 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.304 | 0.234 | -0.07 | 48.4% | 0.168 | 6.1% | 82.6% | 86.3 | 6.10% | 4.10% | 98 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.285 | 0.313 | 0.028 | 69.1% | 0.147 | 18.2% | 94.1% | 87.8 | 4.40% | 3.20% | 68 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.305 | 0.270 | -0.035 | 40.2% | 0.196 | 14.6% | 82.9% | 88 | 7.80% | 5.60% | 103 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.311 | 0.316 | 0.005 | 42.3% | 0.196 | 10.8% | 87.1% | 87.4 | 3.10% | 2.20% | 98 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.277 | 0.313 | 0.036 | 32.5% | 0.214 | 7.4% | 92.1% | 90.3 | 12.00% | 9.70% | 117 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.287 | 0.272 | -0.015 | 52.6% | 0.158 | 11.1% | 87.4% | 88.3 | 8.60% | 6.10% | 116 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 0.269 | 0.280 | 0.011 | 36.8% | 0.218 | 5.6% | 87.3% | 87.9 | 9.90% | 7.00% | 91 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 0.311 | 0.333 | 0.022 | 36.5% | 0.23 | 23.3% | 90.3% | 84.9 | 9.30% | 7.50% | 75 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.289 | 0.282 | -0.007 | 47.9% | 0.205 | 8.7% | 88.6% | 88.5 | 5.40% | 3.00% | 74 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.296 | 0.330 | 0.034 | 46.8% | 0.248 | 12.9% | 85.0% | 87.7 | 5.40% | 4.00% | 111 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.278 | 0.231 | -0.047 | 37.5% | 0.295 | 8.1% | 85.8% | 87.3 | 6.20% | 3.90% | 113 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.280 | 0.198 | -0.082 | 48.2% | 0.133 | 0.0% | 95.5% | 87.6 | 6.00% | 4.90% | 84 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.304 | 0.250 | -0.054 | 58.3% | 0 | 20.0% | 95.0% | 85 | 15.40% | 9.10% | 13 |
Danny Salazar has an enormous BABIP. Though the line drive rate is a little high, it shouldn’t signify a BABIP near .400 and his hard contact rate is actually down this year. The rest of his profile (Popups, Zone Contact) has been superior.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
While Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg are officially fades for me tonight, I’m not entirely against some exposure for multiple lineup players if they’re affordable. I only have a few pitchers as potentially stronger overall arms.
Value Tier One
Luis Perdomo misses enough bats with a strong ground ball rate to be interesting at a low cost. What if he’s missing bats at a league average rate and generating ground balls nearly 70% of the time? Yes, there’s some risk in a transition to Texas, but with so few balls in the air, the risk should be mitigated. He doesn’t have the most upside on the slate, but costs $6.5K or less.
Chris Archer (1) is the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings (third on FanDuel) and has navigated a difficult part of his schedule successfully, though with harder contact than you’d like to see. Perhaps it improves against the Royals, but they’ve been more successful against power pitchers. Regardless, there are only a few high upside pitchers in strong spots tonight and the cost is not over-whelming.
Value Tier Two
Danny Salazar (2) might have the most upside on the slate. He has the highest strikeout rate by more than four points. At a cost a bit less than Archer, the main reason he’s behind him is due to workload. We’re lucky to get six out of Salazar, but can hope for at least seven out of Archer.
Value Tier Three
Kenta Maeda (3) might be a difficult pay up if we’re only expecting five innings, but he’s in a great spot with an elite SwStr%. If he only faces 20-25 batters, an expectation of only a run or two with six to eight strikeouts is not unreasonable. The Dodgers did get seven innings out of him two starts back, though he generally stays below 90 pitches.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Francisco Liriano is a high risk pitcher, who might end in disaster and, to be honest, is not someone I might have the guts to have more than 10-15% exposure too. However, he still misses bats and there is upside in this matchup that might be a bit better than many realize.
Zack Godley might get mauled by Tigers in the desert tonight, but costs virtually nothing in an SP2 spot and does have solid peripherals and batted ball rates in 116 career innings.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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