Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 17th
The main slate tonight has two fewer than yesterday, making it 11 games. Those are the pitchers covered in the notes, while all pitchers are listed. The Nationals, however, failed to list a pitcher Tuesday night, so I’ve assigned them A.J. Cole because I like the sound of a Cole vs Cole matchup (and that’s who DFS sites had listed).
In our quest to attempt to find an answer for BABIP depression that has occurred this season, we’ve bypassed the shift because they’ve been shifting increasingly for five years without dramatic BABIP results. I thought it might be the conscious effort to elevate the ball, but while line drives are down slightly (0.7 points) to compensate for a small increase in fly balls (0.5 points), ground ball rate is only off a smidge (0.2 points) with the hard hit rate virtually the same.
What’s the culprit? What are we left with? Obviously, I have no inside information and can’t know for sure, but I suspect Statcast results allowing for better positioning. Not only do teams now know batter tendencies along with exit velocities and launch angles, but they can also detail routes their own players take, which allows them to position players better along with teach more optimal routes. (This applies to everybody but the Mets, who are still trying to figure out how to catch the balls right at them.) Think about it. If you generally have a good idea where players are going to hit the ball and how long it will take you’re fielder to cover a certain radius, you can now more optimally position everyone on the field.
Last year, two teams (the Cubs & Blue Jays) held opposing batters to a BABIP below .280. This year, 11 teams are currently bettering that mark, with four below .270 and the interesting thing is that they’re not all teams you traditionally think of as progressive thinkers or defensive shifters (Rangers, Twins, Marlins & Rays).
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | -5.8 | 4.25 | 4.9 | 33.3% | 0.97 | 5.47 | 6.82 | PIT | 92 | 77 | 58 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.3 | 4.49 | 5.47 | 49.8% | 1.09 | 4.73 | 5.17 | CLE | 107 | 103 | 100 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | -0.6 | 4.61 | 5.35 | 47.0% | 1.11 | 4.44 | 4.89 | PHI | 83 | 95 | 96 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 6.7 | 4.41 | 4.24 | 39.0% | 0.89 | 4.93 | 4.97 | OAK | 93 | 104 | 121 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.2 | 2.36 | 7.15 | 49.3% | 0.93 | 2.6 | 3.46 | SFO | 76 | 81 | 97 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 9.5 | 4.37 | 6.24 | 42.3% | 1.04 | 4.25 | 5.19 | COL | 77 | 74 | 79 |
| German Marquez | COL | 2.4 | 4.11 | 5.59 | 51.0% | 1.04 | 3.83 | 4.13 | MIN | 101 | 107 | 83 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -5.5 | 3.65 | 6.13 | 46.6% | 0.97 | 3.9 | 3.01 | WAS | 115 | 115 | 137 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 5.6 | 3.72 | 5.29 | 39.4% | 1.06 | 3.87 | 4.19 | NYY | 109 | 112 | 106 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -6.5 | 4.6 | 5.88 | 50.1% | 0.89 | 4.86 | 5.59 | SEA | 129 | 116 | 110 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -8.2 | 4.37 | 5.42 | 49.0% | 0.91 | 3.91 | 4.72 | MIL | 100 | 100 | 132 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | -2.4 | 3.24 | 4.5 | 53.9% | 1 | 3.41 | 2.07 | ATL | 88 | 95 | 114 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 1.6 | 3.8 | 6.64 | 46.1% | 0.93 | 3.57 | 3.36 | LOS | 92 | 118 | 119 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.27 | 47.4% | 0.94 | 4.77 | 5.35 | HOU | 118 | 126 | 124 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -9.2 | 4.01 | 6.02 | 43.4% | 1.09 | 4.05 | 3.68 | TAM | 100 | 115 | 137 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.7 | 3.57 | 5.98 | 50.3% | 0.96 | 3.17 | 3.39 | CIN | 103 | 100 | 79 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -2.8 | 3.44 | 5.8 | 52.3% | 0.94 | 3.4 | 2.46 | MIA | 82 | 85 | 87 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -5.1 | 4.61 | 5.52 | 49.2% | 0.91 | 4.63 | 4.23 | SDG | 79 | 86 | 100 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | -3.6 | 3.9 | 5.98 | 44.7% | 1.13 | 4.31 | 5.89 | ARI | 118 | 105 | 137 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | -7.6 | 4 | 5.79 | 41.1% | 0.91 | 3.49 | 4.81 | CHW | 75 | 74 | 103 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 5.1 | 3.96 | 6.21 | 49.0% | 0.98 | 4.16 | 3.13 | BAL | 108 | 102 | 136 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.1 | 3.28 | 5.62 | 46.6% | 1.06 | 3.13 | 2.8 | KAN | 79 | 79 | 111 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | -5.3 | 4.64 | 5.71 | 39.9% | 0.91 | 4.83 | 5.33 | ANA | 108 | 90 | 97 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.7 | 4.14 | 5.6 | 39.4% | 1 | 4.59 | 4.27 | TOR | 88 | 84 | 129 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -10.9 | 4.02 | 6.09 | 0.527 | 0.98 | 3.5 | 5.09 | BOS | 119 | 102 | 84 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -7.6 | 4.09 | 5.46 | 0.51 | 1.13 | 4.29 | 4.6 | NYM | 115 | 99 | 103 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.2 | 3.71 | 6.45 | 0.439 | 0.98 | 3.86 | 3.39 | STL | 98 | 104 | 102 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 19.9 | 4.41 | 5.8 | 0.472 | 0.96 | 4.07 | 4.43 | CHC | 93 | 87 | 78 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.9 | 4.48 | 5.49 | 0.481 | 0.98 | 4.98 | 4.5 | DET | 115 | 101 | 92 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 11.2 | 5.13 | 5.94 | 0.398 | 1.11 | 5.42 | 4.57 | TEX | 95 | 101 | 116 |
Gerrit Cole has been great and has gone at least six innings in each of his last seven starts. The ground balls are back (50.4%), as are the strikeouts. His secondary stuff (curve, change) are being used more often and to greater effect this year. The issue is that he still allows a few too many barrels and hard hit balls (32.9%) and faces one of the best offenses in baseball. Washington is additionally a top three offense against ground ball pitchers (125 sOPS+ via Baseballl-Reference) and top four against power pitchers (123 sOPS+).
Jason Vargas hasn’t held his April pace only in strikeout rate. He’s generated at least a 9.8 SwStr% in six of seven starts, as well as going at least six innings with one run or less in six of seven starts. He’s allowed an amazingly low 1.6% Barrels/BBE even remaining a predominantly fly ball pitcher. The issue here (as it is with Cole above) is the matchup. In addition to their 12.4 BB% and 16.2 HR/FB despite a 26.8 Hard% vs LHP (the joys of Yankee Stadium), the Yankees punish LHP more than any offense in the majors (143 sOPS+) and though this is far from Yankee Stadium, Kevin forecasts another sizeable wind effect out to center tonight.
Joe Biagini has struck out seven of 34 batters over two starts without a walk (or run). As mentioned here before his last start, the 27 year-old former reliever brings a multi-pitch arsenal to a starting role and though he dipped a bit in his second start, still held his velocity above 93 mph through 68 pitches. Perhaps he reaches 75-80 tonight, which, with the way he’s going, might get him through six. The Braves present a fairly neutral matchup without striking out much, but not having many threats to run prevention. The park seems to be playing power friendly so far though.
Matt Shoemaker is coming off his best outing in six shutout innings against Detroit with seven strikeouts. He’s beginning to miss a few more bats and does seem to pitch better at home (19.8 K-BB% since start of last season). His 9.9% Barrels/BBE and 37.2 Hard% are second worst on the day for any qualified pitcher regardless of slate, so he’s certainly struggling with hard contact as the nine HRs can attest to. However, he’s allowed just three of those in four home starts and faces the White Sox (26.6 Hard% vs RHP).
Michael Fulmer is still flying well below his estimators, but has gone at least seven innings with seven strikeouts or more in three of his last four starts and hasn’t gone fewer than six innings yet. The Orioles are a quality offense with power, but can be pitched to in a more neutral run environment.
Michael Pineda is the clear class of this slate and though the Royals have been better recently, also has a quality matchup. The stuff has remained elite (26.7 K-BB% is second in the majors) while the ground ball rate has increased (51.4%) and hard contact has decreased (28.7%), as his ERA more closely aligns with estimators this season. The Royals have just an 8.6 HR/FB at home, further negating his biggest issue (24.2 HR/FB), though the wind will be blowing out tonight. The Royals have a 91 sOPS+ and 27.7 K% against power pitchers.
Rick Porcello continues to have major issues with hard contact (above 45% in five of eight starts and 65% in his most recent one). His 10.9% Barrels/BBE is worst for the entire day. However, a strong 19.8 K-BB% has mitigated a lot of the damage and it may even be better than that, as he hasn’t walked a batter in three starts. St Louis is normally a power suppressing park until it heats up over the summer, but it’s expected to be near 80 degrees with a strong wind blowing out to left tonight, which may hurt him more than normal in this environment, making a neutral matchup a slightly unfavorable one.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.128 – 98.4% – 10.5) has a below average 9.9 K-BB%. Even with that, he’s likely the cut off arm tonight due to the perfectly league average strikeout rate and 83.2 mph aEV (0.0 Hard-Soft%) in a great spot against the Rockies. I can’t see much benefit to paying more than $9K for him though. He can’t continue to out-run his estimators by three runs. He additionally has considerable weather concerns.
Jesse Hahn (.256 – 72.6% – 2.4) faces a tough offense in an extremely negative run environment, but even if we grant him the low BABIP, that HR rate is a farce even in power suppressing parks.
Zach Eflin (.235 – 82.2% – 10.5)
Andrew Cashner (.224 – 84.1% – 8.6) -2.2 K-BB%
Miguel Gonzalez (.295 – 77.3 – 9.2) 7.2 K-BB%
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Scott Feldman has, unfortunately, seen his strikeout rate and swinging strikes drop over his last few starts, though it’s hardly unexpected. While the Cubs have actually been a fairly favorable matchup this year and he still might be worth considering under normal or favorable conditions, an uncomfortable weather report with the best case scenario a strong outward bound wind again, probably takes him out of consideration.
Kyle Hendricks might have made the cut under better circumstances, but he was fairly borderline to begin with and the weather report (rain risk with strong outward bound wind again) probably makes him not worthy of the effort tonight. Let’s be clear that there’s less of an issue with his ERA/estimators gap due to the excellent defense and ground ball tendencies. However, there are some things that are different in a negative way this year. Despite the 85.4 mph aEV, his hard hit rate is up to 35% this year, while the velocity remains down significantly. This might not seem a bit deal for a pitcher of his skill set, but we also have to consider that his K% has shown no effect yet from a 3.4 point drop in SwStr%.
Mike Leake might be okay from a run prevention standpoint here with Boston losing a DH and not really being all that to begin with this season, but he does not project for nearly enough strikeouts in this spot.
Mike Foltynewicz has been a bit deceptive, as he has half of his strikeouts in two starts and no more than four in any of his other four, though his SwStr rate has been at least 9% in each of his last four. He actually seems like he might have league average upside this year, which is fine, but that’s what he’s priced for and the Blue Jays have been hot (14.6 K% over the last week) and I’m going to call this a power boosting park.
Matt Garza has looked fairly credible through four starts with a 14.9 K-BB%, though his ERA doesn’t reflect three unearned runs, nor the quality of competition he has faced (Reds, Braves, @ Pirates, Mets). A couple of those spots might be considered neutral. Despite another great matchup, I’m still unconvinced he’s worthy of a price tag in excess of $8K.
German Marquez may even be a league average arm, but he’s not in a favorable spot in Minnesota. This is one of the more surprisingly positive run environments and better offenses vs RHP.
Christian Bergman appeared to have developed a cutter that made him look like a different pitcher at AAA this season. No such luck in the majors.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.0% | 8.6% | Road | 20.0% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.1% | 6.4% | Road | 12.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 12.4% | 8.6% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 18.5% | 10.0% | Home | 19.4% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 14.3% | 5.0% | Home | 14.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 3.3% | Road | 28.8% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 8.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.8% | Home | 19.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 13.9% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.0% | Road | 18.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.1% | 5.7% | Home | 20.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.8% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 22.0% | 4.5% | Home | 23.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 6.4% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.3% | 8.2% | Road | 13.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.6% | Home | 19.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.5% | 5.5% | Road | 21.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 20.9% | 5.5% | Home | 20.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 6.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 13.4% | 8.2% | Home | 15.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 10.3% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.8% | 2.8% | Home | 15.8% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 1.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.3% | Home | 23.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.5% | Road | 25.5% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 4.3% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.6% | Road | 13.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.4% | Road | 19.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.0% | Home | 25.2% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.6% | Home | 20.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 6.6% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.0% | 5.6% | Road | 27.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 4.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.4% | 6.9% | Road | 15.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.5% | Home | 21.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.3% | 5.1% | Home | 16.7% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 9.4% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.7% | Home | 19.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.1% | Road | 21.4% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.9% | Road | 17.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 5.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.7% | 10.2% | Road | 17.7% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 12.2% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 11.9% | 5.2% | Road | 10.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 1.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 9.8% | RH | 19.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.3% |
| Indians | Home | 20.4% | 10.5% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.7% | 9.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.2% | 8.4% | RH | 23.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.1% | 9.4% | RH | 22.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 11.0% |
| Giants | Home | 18.9% | 6.4% | LH | 20.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.9% | 5.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.3% | 7.2% | RH | 22.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.9% | 11.6% | RH | 22.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 10.0% | RH | 19.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 17.3% | 9.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.8% | 10.0% | LH | 22.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 28.6% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.6% | 10.9% | RH | 20.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.7% | 7.2% | RH | 24.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.2% |
| Braves | Home | 19.4% | 8.9% | RH | 19.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.3% | 10.5% | RH | 20.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 10.2% |
| Astros | Road | 19.4% | 9.1% | RH | 18.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.6% |
| Rays | Road | 29.7% | 10.9% | RH | 26.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 7.7% |
| Reds | Road | 17.7% | 8.2% | RH | 20.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.8% | 7.9% | RH | 19.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.2% |
| Padres | Home | 23.1% | 9.2% | RH | 25.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.1% | 8.6% | RH | 23.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.9% | 5.8% | RH | 22.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.9% | 6.8% | RH | 21.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.3% |
| Royals | Home | 19.2% | 7.6% | RH | 21.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.1% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.3% | 8.4% | RH | 21.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 14.6% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.2% | 10.2% | RH | 17.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| Mets | Road | 19.3% | 9.4% | LH | 18.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.0% | 10.8% | RH | 20.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 9.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.3% | 10.4% | RH | 21.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 10.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.6% | 10.2% | RH | 22.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.6% | 9.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.7% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% | Road | 25.4% | 10.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 33.1% | 15.7% | 18.6% | 2017 | 34.8% | 12.8% | 21.8% | Road | 29.6% | 14.9% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.3% | -1.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.5% | 17.0% | 2017 | 27.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | Home | 33.1% | 12.5% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 36.2% | 14.9% | 19.9% | 2017 | 32.3% | 12.5% | 9.7% | Home | 38.5% | 10.5% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 12.5% | 9.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.3% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2017 | 30.7% | 14.3% | 7.4% | Road | 29.2% | 13.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 12.5% | -10.5% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 2017 | 25.9% | 10.5% | 0.0% | Home | 27.1% | 10.9% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 19.0% | -3.9% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 2017 | 28.4% | 8.0% | 14.9% | Road | 34.6% | 15.4% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 14.3% | 12.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.8% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 2017 | 32.9% | 14.6% | 14.0% | Home | 30.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 11.1% | 27.8% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 3.6% | 9.6% | 2017 | 26.2% | 2.0% | 6.5% | Home | 31.2% | 0.0% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.6% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 2017 | 29.5% | 2.4% | 8.6% | Road | 27.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 2017 | 27.3% | 15.6% | 7.0% | Home | 26.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 21.4% | 2.7% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2017 | 26.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | Road | 20.4% | 6.1% | 1.4% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 12.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 28.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 2017 | 35.9% | 15.1% | 21.2% | Home | 26.6% | 3.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 13.3% | 18.4% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.6% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 2017 | 30.7% | 8.6% | 12.5% | Home | 32.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 5.9% | 16.3% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.0% | 16.6% | 18.9% | 2017 | 35.7% | 12.5% | 24.8% | Home | 32.9% | 19.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 7.1% | 14.6% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.1% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 2017 | 35.1% | 15.6% | 13.5% | Home | 27.7% | 8.3% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 0.0% | 22.6% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 26.8% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 2017 | 23.4% | 20.0% | 0.8% | Road | 30.3% | 7.1% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.3% | 12.5% | 16.8% | 2017 | 38.6% | 13.6% | 30.0% | Road | 31.5% | 9.1% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 7.7% | 18.5% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 29.9% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 2017 | 34.9% | 24.4% | 9.3% | Road | 32.7% | 11.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 30.8% | 5.4% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 2017 | 37.2% | 14.8% | 23.1% | Home | 31.2% | 11.3% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 40.4% | 10.0% | 27.6% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 2017 | 29.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | Home | 32.9% | 10.7% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -7.5% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.2% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 2017 | 28.7% | 24.2% | 14.8% | Road | 30.2% | 14.1% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 33.3% | 14.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.0% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 2017 | 28.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | Road | 30.4% | 7.6% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 20.0% | 9.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 31.1% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 2017 | 29.5% | 15.4% | 12.5% | Home | 30.9% | 9.5% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 25.0% | 29.7% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 2017 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | Home | 24.8% | 16.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 23.1% | 17.1% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.4% | 15.5% | 19.9% | 2017 | 32.0% | 13.0% | 17.3% | Home | 40.5% | 15.7% | 28.1% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 30.0% | 30.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.9% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 2017 | 43.6% | 13.4% | 26.9% | Road | 30.2% | 10.9% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 54.8% | 9.5% | 45.3% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 25.5% | 12.2% | 5.0% | 2017 | 29.5% | 12.2% | 5.8% | Road | 26.4% | 15.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.2% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 2017 | 31.4% | 21.6% | 9.5% | Road | 30.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 22.2% | -10.7% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.4% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 2017 | 34.0% | 10.5% | 18.0% | Road | 37.1% | 12.8% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 6.7% | 12.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 28.3% | 10.4% | 6.7% | RH | 29.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 34.8% | 15.9% | 14.1% |
| Indians | Home | 31.1% | 14.3% | 14.8% | RH | 34.1% | 11.5% | 17.3% | L7Days | 32.3% | 10.6% | 15.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.9% | 11.6% | 7.1% | RH | 29.2% | 11.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.9% | 0.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.9% | 11.5% | 18.4% | RH | 36.2% | 14.6% | 20.4% | L7Days | 35.4% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| Giants | Home | 23.7% | 8.2% | 1.8% | LH | 25.7% | 9.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 29.6% | 14.1% | 9.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 33.1% | 12.3% | 13.2% | RH | 31.5% | 13.0% | 11.1% | L7Days | 30.4% | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 11.7% | 16.2% | RH | 33.5% | 14.9% | 17.7% | L7Days | 28.3% | 17.9% | 11.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.3% | 16.0% | 12.8% | RH | 31.7% | 15.2% | 14.7% | L7Days | 32.9% | 19.6% | 11.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 29.1% | 12.8% | 10.9% | LH | 26.8% | 16.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 22.2% | 12.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.4% | 11.8% | 10.3% | RH | 30.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | L7Days | 31.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.4% | 20.0% | 12.9% | RH | 35.2% | 20.1% | 16.8% | L7Days | 40.0% | 17.5% | 21.1% |
| Braves | Home | 31.1% | 12.0% | 13.4% | RH | 31.0% | 11.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 33.5% | 10.5% | 17.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.0% | 9.9% | 16.5% | RH | 35.2% | 13.4% | 20.4% | L7Days | 38.6% | 10.9% | 25.0% |
| Astros | Road | 30.9% | 12.4% | 12.8% | RH | 31.2% | 14.2% | 12.4% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.9% | 11.3% |
| Rays | Road | 35.8% | 16.7% | 15.8% | RH | 35.5% | 16.8% | 16.5% | L7Days | 43.5% | 18.9% | 30.0% |
| Reds | Road | 29.1% | 11.6% | 7.7% | RH | 28.7% | 11.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.1% | 14.6% | 10.9% | RH | 30.9% | 12.9% | 11.3% | L7Days | 34.6% | 15.7% | 13.4% |
| Padres | Home | 26.8% | 12.2% | 3.4% | RH | 29.4% | 16.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 31.8% | 15.3% | 11.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 40.2% | 17.4% | 27.3% | RH | 37.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | L7Days | 43.8% | 21.4% | 32.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 26.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | RH | 26.6% | 11.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 27.9% | 14.5% | 4.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 37.6% | 15.9% | 19.0% | RH | 31.2% | 14.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 43.0% | 18.3% | 26.2% |
| Royals | Home | 31.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | RH | 32.0% | 11.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 10.3% | 13.2% |
| Angels | Home | 28.7% | 13.2% | 8.9% | RH | 29.0% | 13.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 34.4% | 13.1% | 9.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.7% | 14.0% | 12.9% | RH | 30.6% | 12.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.3% | 14.1% | 12.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 36.6% | 11.3% | 17.9% | RH | 37.8% | 9.9% | 20.1% | L7Days | 34.4% | 9.3% | 17.5% |
| Mets | Road | 36.2% | 15.8% | 19.5% | LH | 36.2% | 12.3% | 16.5% | L7Days | 34.6% | 14.0% | 19.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 27.1% | 11.8% | 6.5% | RH | 29.8% | 12.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 11.6% | 14.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 27.5% | 12.7% | 9.3% | RH | 29.3% | 11.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 34.7% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.8% | 11.9% | 36.9% | RH | 43.2% | 11.4% | 28.0% | L7Days | 46.5% | 14.5% | 37.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.5% | 15.8% | 13.8% | RH | 32.8% | 16.4% | 13.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 12.2% | 6.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.51 | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.51 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.14 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 2.35 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 12.1% | 5.6% | 2.16 | 12.8% | 5.8% | 2.21 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 8.1% | 6.6% | 1.23 | 8.1% | 6.6% | 1.23 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 26.5% | 11.8% | 2.25 | 25.7% | 13.2% | 1.95 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.26 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 2.50 |
| German Marquez | COL | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.22 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.22 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 23.5% | 10.7% | 2.20 | 28.8% | 12.5% | 2.30 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 22.9% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 20.8% | 12.3% | 1.69 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 18.3% | 7.4% | 2.47 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.59 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 17.9% | 6.5% | 2.75 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 2.68 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 22.9% | 9.0% | 2.54 | 26.0% | 10.2% | 2.55 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 21.1% | 11.2% | 1.88 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.05 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 12.7% | 6.8% | 1.87 | 11.7% | 6.9% | 1.70 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.8% | 7.0% | 2.40 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 2.24 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 21.0% | 6.6% | 3.18 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.48 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 29.1% | 12.4% | 2.35 | 28.3% | 12.5% | 2.26 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 20.2% | 9.2% | 2.20 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 2.20 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 14.9% | 7.9% | 1.89 | 12.3% | 7.3% | 1.68 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.2% | 10.7% | 2.07 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 2.20 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.16 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 1.96 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 30.3% | 13.6% | 2.23 | 27.1% | 12.8% | 2.12 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 14.4% | 7.8% | 1.85 | 11.9% | 7.5% | 1.59 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 19.9% | 9.7% | 2.05 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 17.4% | 7.7% | 2.26 | 14.5% | 8.3% | 1.75 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.72 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 1.80 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 24.0% | 11.1% | 2.16 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 2.32 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 17.8% | 8.5% | 2.09 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 1.92 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 16.1% | 6.0% | 2.68 | 17.0% | 5.7% | 2.98 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 13.0% | 5.8% | 2.24 | 13.0% | 5.8% | 2.24 |
Note that Jason Vargas may have fewer strikeouts over the last few starts, but without a reduction in SwStr%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 1.5 | 6.82 | 5.32 | 5.75 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 2.85 | 6.18 | 4.68 | 1.5 | 6.82 | 5.32 | 5.75 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 2.85 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.65 | 4.48 | 0.83 | 4.27 | 0.62 | 4.25 | 0.6 | 4.99 | 1.34 | 3.72 | 4.76 | 1.04 | 4.52 | 0.8 | 4.06 | 0.34 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 2.43 | 6.08 | 3.65 | 5.74 | 3.31 | 5.15 | 2.72 | 6.67 | 4.24 | 1.93 | 6.1 | 4.17 | 5.84 | 3.91 | 5.37 | 3.44 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 4.15 | 4.97 | 0.82 | 4.91 | 0.76 | 4.86 | 0.71 | 5.61 | 1.46 | 4.15 | 4.97 | 0.82 | 4.91 | 0.76 | 4.86 | 0.71 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.43 | 2.98 | 0.55 | 2.88 | 0.45 | 3.03 | 0.6 | 2.61 | 0.18 | 2.36 | 3.12 | 0.76 | 2.91 | 0.55 | 2.73 | 0.37 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 1.5 | 4.58 | 3.08 | 4.49 | 2.99 | 4.17 | 2.67 | 2.52 | 1.02 | 2.25 | 4.88 | 2.63 | 4.88 | 2.63 | 5.02 | 2.77 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.88 | 4.13 | -0.75 | 4.02 | -0.86 | 3.35 | -1.53 | 6.83 | 1.95 | 4.88 | 4.13 | -0.75 | 4.02 | -0.86 | 3.35 | -1.53 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.06 | 3.45 | 0.39 | 3.35 | 0.29 | 3.56 | 0.5 | 2.82 | -0.24 | 1.91 | 2.88 | 0.97 | 2.81 | 0.9 | 2.96 | 1.05 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 1.01 | 3.63 | 2.62 | 3.72 | 2.71 | 2.17 | 1.16 | 2.69 | 1.68 | 1.16 | 4 | 2.84 | 4.25 | 3.09 | 2.5 | 1.34 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 2.74 | 4.47 | 1.73 | 4.32 | 1.58 | 2.97 | 0.23 | 3.02 | 0.28 | 2.35 | 4.64 | 2.29 | 4.42 | 2.07 | 3.31 | 0.96 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.12 | 4.36 | -0.76 | 4.32 | -0.8 | 4.66 | -0.46 | 6.07 | 0.95 | 4.11 | 3.98 | -0.13 | 3.9 | -0.21 | 4.48 | 0.37 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 2.28 | 2.63 | 0.35 | 2.86 | 0.58 | 2.29 | 0.01 | 2.84 | 2.09 | -0.75 | 2.31 | -0.53 | 2.02 | -0.82 | ||
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.15 | 4.03 | -0.12 | 3.88 | -0.27 | 4.17 | 0.02 | 3.87 | -0.28 | 4.36 | 4.07 | -0.29 | 3.72 | -0.64 | 4.11 | -0.25 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 1.98 | 4.84 | 2.86 | 5.02 | 3.04 | 4.3 | 2.32 | 5.46 | 3.48 | 1.93 | 5.08 | 3.15 | 5.12 | 3.19 | 4.22 | 2.29 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.87 | 3.69 | -2.18 | 3.4 | -2.47 | 3.36 | -2.51 | 6.36 | 0.49 | 3.38 | 3.65 | 0.27 | 3.26 | -0.12 | 2.7 | -0.68 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.4 | 4.22 | 0.82 | 3.94 | 0.54 | 4.23 | 0.83 | 4.97 | 1.57 | 2.51 | 4.31 | 1.8 | 3.91 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 1.59 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.98 | 2.73 | -0.25 | 2.46 | -0.52 | 2.93 | -0.05 | 2.01 | -0.97 | 2.03 | 2.9 | 0.87 | 2.7 | 0.67 | 2.31 | 0.28 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 2.66 | 3.84 | 1.18 | 3.61 | 0.95 | 3.69 | 1.03 | 4.00 | 1.34 | 2.66 | 3.85 | 1.19 | 3.61 | 0.95 | 3.69 | 1.03 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 5.63 | 5.11 | -0.52 | 4.94 | -0.69 | 6.47 | 0.84 | 5.85 | 0.22 | 6.83 | 5.85 | -0.98 | 5.74 | -1.09 | 7.21 | 0.38 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.5 | 4.42 | -0.08 | 4.98 | 0.48 | 5.31 | 0.81 | 4.43 | -0.07 | 3.68 | 4.21 | 0.53 | 4.83 | 1.15 | 4.59 | 0.91 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.54 | 3.72 | 1.18 | 3.69 | 1.15 | 3.43 | 0.89 | 1.82 | -0.72 | 2.65 | 3.72 | 1.07 | 3.59 | 0.94 | 3.4 | 0.75 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.27 | 2.56 | -0.71 | 2.45 | -0.82 | 3.62 | 0.35 | 1.32 | -1.95 | 3 | 3.01 | 0.01 | 2.86 | -0.14 | 4.12 | 1.12 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.83 | 5 | 1.17 | 5.22 | 1.39 | 4.52 | 0.69 | 5.88 | 2.05 | 3.71 | 5.21 | 1.5 | 5.38 | 1.67 | 4.34 | 0.63 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.04 | 4.15 | 0.11 | 4.21 | 0.17 | 4.56 | 0.52 | 5.34 | 1.30 | 3.6 | 3.95 | 0.35 | 3.92 | 0.32 | 4.35 | 0.75 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 1.94 | 3.9 | 1.96 | 3.62 | 1.68 | 3.12 | 1.18 | 3.33 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 4.3 | 1.71 | 4.01 | 1.42 | 3.91 | 1.32 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.17 | 4.25 | 0.08 | 4.13 | -0.04 | 4.14 | -0.03 | 6.45 | 2.28 | 4.91 | 3.45 | -1.46 | 3.19 | -1.72 | 3.97 | -0.94 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.01 | 3.48 | -0.53 | 3.74 | -0.27 | 3.83 | -0.18 | 3.60 | -0.41 | 2.2 | 3.36 | 1.16 | 3.61 | 1.41 | 2.99 | 0.79 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 3.59 | 4.61 | 1.02 | 4.17 | 0.58 | 4.09 | 0.5 | 3.13 | -0.46 | 3.94 | 4.57 | 0.63 | 4.03 | 0.09 | 3.99 | 0.05 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.15 | 5.41 | -0.74 | 5.22 | -0.93 | 6.46 | 0.31 | 8.43 | 2.28 | 4.68 | 5.62 | 0.94 | 5.23 | 0.55 | 6.22 | 1.54 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 2.81 | 4.54 | 1.73 | 4.7 | 1.89 | 4.33 | 1.52 | 4.33 | 1.52 | 2.81 | 4.54 | 1.73 | 4.7 | 1.89 | 4.33 | 1.52 |
Jason Vargas has a career 8.7 HR/FB and .283 BABIP, while pitching in a power suppressing park with a strong defense. While I have little issue with his low BABIP, the 2.0 HR/FB is due for some regression, as is the 88.7 LOB%. I’m actually most buying into his 2.69 DRA here.
Michael Fulmer has a .238 BABIP with no strong supporting factors, leading to an 81.1 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.293 | 0.333 | 0.04 | 50.0% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 93.2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.275 | 0.284 | 0.009 | 48.4% | 0.22 | 8.5% | 92.1% | 88.3 | 5.60% | 4.30% | 161 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.278 | 0.224 | -0.054 | 47.5% | 0.178 | 2.9% | 92.4% | 85.6 | 3.00% | 2.10% | 101 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 0.291 | 0.233 | -0.058 | 53.6% | 0.179 | 25.0% | 90.0% | 82.6 | 3.20% | 2.70% | 31 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.301 | 0.266 | -0.035 | 49.7% | 0.17 | 10.2% | 83.1% | 86.2 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 150 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.269 | 0.128 | -0.141 | 44.9% | 0.132 | 15.8% | 88.7% | 83.2 | 2.90% | 2.00% | 138 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.283 | 0.292 | 0.009 | 47.3% | 0.189 | 4.0% | 92.0% | 89.1 | 4.10% | 2.90% | 74 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.311 | 0.265 | -0.046 | 50.4% | 0.146 | 6.3% | 84.7% | 86.9 | 7.00% | 5.00% | 143 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.291 | 0.264 | -0.027 | 39.7% | 0.198 | 8.2% | 78.3% | 85.4 | 1.60% | 1.20% | 122 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.277 | 0.256 | -0.021 | 45.7% | 0.213 | 9.5% | 90.8% | 88 | 4.70% | 3.30% | 129 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.294 | 0.287 | -0.007 | 51.7% | 0.168 | 11.1% | 88.2% | 86.8 | 6.30% | 4.60% | 143 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 0.309 | 0.267 | -0.042 | 58.7% | 0.187 | 5.9% | 89.7% | 84.1 | 1.30% | 1.00% | 76 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.306 | 0.277 | -0.029 | 40.1% | 0.25 | 9.4% | 86.2% | 87.1 | 7.10% | 5.00% | 156 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.279 | 0.259 | -0.02 | 43.5% | 0.153 | 11.4% | 92.5% | 85.5 | 6.80% | 5.50% | 88 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.307 | 0.344 | 0.037 | 50.0% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 90.8% | 89.2 | 3.90% | 3.10% | 129 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.296 | 0.255 | -0.041 | 51.4% | 0.193 | 9.4% | 91.7% | 85.4 | 4.50% | 3.10% | 111 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.282 | 0.303 | 0.021 | 60.3% | 0.19 | 4.0% | 87.5% | 86.3 | 7.30% | 4.60% | 124 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.322 | 0.299 | -0.023 | 46.4% | 0.217 | 9.1% | 87.9% | 88.6 | 8.60% | 6.40% | 70 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.322 | 0.244 | -0.078 | 46.8% | 0.206 | 7.3% | 88.6% | 85 | 8.50% | 6.30% | 129 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.273 | 0.239 | -0.034 | 40.5% | 0.091 | 6.6% | 86.5% | 89.3 | 9.90% | 6.50% | 121 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.305 | 0.238 | -0.067 | 48.4% | 0.214 | 10.5% | 85.9% | 85.8 | 6.30% | 4.30% | 126 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.283 | 0.270 | -0.013 | 51.4% | 0.178 | 3.0% | 85.9% | 88.3 | 7.40% | 4.80% | 108 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.266 | 0.295 | 0.029 | 39.2% | 0.169 | 10.8% | 91.7% | 86.2 | 7.90% | 6.20% | 152 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.281 | 0.292 | 0.011 | 43.5% | 0.204 | 10.3% | 84.4% | 86.7 | 8.00% | 5.80% | 112 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.290 | 0.237 | -0.053 | 54.3% | 0.193 | 2.7% | 89.6% | 87.1 | 4.90% | 3.80% | 142 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.289 | 0.299 | 0.01 | 48.6% | 0.203 | 10.9% | 84.5% | 88.3 | 5.40% | 4.00% | 149 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.304 | 0.327 | 0.023 | 39.1% | 0.179 | 10.4% | 84.9% | 89.8 | 10.90% | 7.80% | 156 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.265 | 0.269 | 0.004 | 42.7% | 0.26 | 9.8% | 87.3% | 82.7 | 5.00% | 3.70% | 139 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.301 | 0.237 | -0.064 | 47.6% | 0.165 | 13.5% | 88.8% | 87.4 | 6.70% | 4.70% | 105 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.285 | 0.235 | -0.05 | 47.6% | 0.155 | 2.6% | 93.0% | 87.1 | 5.70% | 4.60% | 106 |
Gerrit Cole has a low line drive rate that he’s unlikely to retain, meaning we can probably say the same for his BABIP unless the defense improves.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is a one man slate, then we’ll look to ride the hot start of a cheap arm with everyone else left fighting for scraps.
Value Tier One
Michael Pineda (1) is the clear and easy answer on the slate, no matter how you look at it. Even if he falters and blows up as he often does (though less often this year), there’s no way you can even argue that another pitcher is in his league in this spot tonight. An enormous ownership rate is the only real argument that can be made against him. The $8.6K price tag on FanDuel is exceptionally reasonable.
Value Tier Two
Joe Biagini is an easy arm to speculate on again tonight in Atlanta for $6K, considering the rest of the slate. His two starts have been nearly flawless with a double digit SwStr% in each. If you’re considered about the pitch count, would you pay $8K for the potential performance if we were expecting 100 pitches?
Value Tier Three
Michael Fulmer (2) is not as good as his ERA, but is still a quality pitcher who should generate some innings and strikeouts tonight. The top price tag in a not entirely favorable matchup with the Orioles probably drops him at least a few spots on DraftKings.
Matt Shoemaker owns a price tag above what his performance has been this season, but he’s in a great spot coming off his best start of the season.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk. .
Rick Porcello may be proof that you can get by, though perhaps not thrive, with a very high rate of hard contact if your peripherals are elite. I’d like him more in this spot in what was supposed to be a more neutral environment if weather conditions were more favorable towards pitching.
Jason Vargas continues his age 34 breakout even if we don’t fully buy into the ERA. The biggest issue here is the quality of competition and their prowess against fly ball pitchers.
Gerrit Cole is likely at a cost you won’t see him again, at least on DraftKings (unless he falters in this start). He’s pitching at an All-Star level again this year. Though the park is favorable, he’s in a very difficult spot against a top offense tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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