Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, August 19th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-20 02:54:45

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
McHugh	HOU	BAL	134	4.70	3.89	1.48	42.9%	22.8%	6.5%	1.21	1.17
Miley	BAL	HOU	127.1	5.23	4.58	1.40	33.3%	16.6%	7.2%	1.41	1.47
Koehler	MIA	PIT	133	3.86	4.84	1.39	52.6%	18.6%	10.3%	0.74	1.18
Cole	PIT	MIA	102.1	3.25	4.11	1.33	28.6%	19.6%	6.4%	0.26	1.59
Wainwright	STL	PHI	145	4.72	4.28	1.37	84.2%	18.6%	6.5%	0.68	1.47
Morgan	PHI	STL	69.1	6.62	4.48	1.62		17.6%	5.3%	2.08	0.85
Porcello	BOS	DET	158	3.30	3.88	1.05	55.6%	20.3%	4.1%	1.03	1.27
Fulmer	DET	BOS	120	2.25	3.85	1.02		21.7%	6.8%	0.75	1.74
Adleman	CIN	LAD	19.1	3.72	4.83	1.40		19.3%		1.40	1.19
Hamels	TEX	TBR	153.1	2.88	4.06	1.30	58.8%	23.0%	9.1%	1.06	1.58
Andriese	TBR	TEX	85.2	3.36	3.89	1.09		20.5%	5.3%	0.95	1.24
Liriano	TOR	CLE	125.1	5.46	4.68	1.62	12.5%	21.7%	12.7%	1.51	1.68
Bauer	CLE	TOR	131.1	3.97	4.37	1.32	38.5%	20.4%	9.4%	0.96	1.48
Roark	WAS	ATL	157	2.81	4.14	1.17	52.6%	19.9%	7.5%	0.63	1.72
Teheran	ATL	WAS	134.2	2.81	3.88	0.97	70.0%	22.4%	5.5%	1.07	0.94
Graveman	OAK	CWS	134	4.37	4.59	1.38		13.9%	6.4%	1.21	1.90
Shields	CWS	OAK	132.1	5.78	5.25	1.60	42.9%	14.8%	9.6%	1.77	1.12
Berrios	MIN	KCR	28	9.32	4.51	1.89		22.2%	10.4%	2.25	0.79
Volquez	KCR	MIN	147.1	4.95	4.56	1.46	50.0%	16.5%	8.3%	1.04	1.87
Hendricks	CHC	COL	140	2.19	3.73	1.01		22.3%	6.3%	0.77	1.73
Anderson	COL	CHC	71	3.42	3.79	1.21		20.2%	5.8%	0.89	2.02
Tanaka	NYY	LAA	153.1	3.40	3.77	1.10	66.7%	20.5%	4.3%	0.94	1.54
Weaver	LAA	NYY	133.2	5.32	5.68	1.50	52.4%	11.6%	6.4%	1.75	0.59
Suter	MIL	SEA
LeBlanc	SEA	MIL	42.1	4.68	4.44	1.28		18.0%	5.1%	2.34	0.79
Matz	NYM	SFG	132.1	3.40	3.51	1.21		23.6%	5.7%	0.95	1.83
Cueto	SFG	NYM	166.2	2.97	3.59	1.09	76.2%	22.4%	4.9%	0.65	1.66
Greinke	ARI	SDP	117	4.31	3.84	1.22	50.0%	20.5%	4.5%	1.23	1.41
Cosart	SDP	ARI	34	5.03	5.45	1.68	31.6%	13.6%	15.5%	0.26	4.71

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

No pitcher on today’s slate even sniffs the All-In category. The best pitchers available would have to be going extremely well with optimum context in order to receive All-In consideration, yet none of the top pitchers who are taking the hill today have enjoyed that type of recent success. It’s a veritable war of attrition, and the top-scoring gamers of today might simply be those who successfully avoid the landmines in a field full of them.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. NYM) – Cueto gave up three earned runs over 6.2 innings of his last outing, a typically-boring performance that was actually one of his best games of the past two months. Since the end of June, Cueto has given up four or more runs in five of his nine turns, has put together just three quality starts and has coughed up nine home runs over that stretch – he gave up just three bombs in his first 15 starts combined. His fade is reminiscent of the second-half disaster of last season, but he doesn’t have a midseason cross-league trade as an excuse this season and his struggles began even earlier in the campaign. The Mets’ lineup has been through the wringer this season, giving Cueto a soft landing as he attempts to re-establish himself as one of the best no. 2 starters in the game and a force to be reckoned with in the postseason.

Cole Hamels TEX (at TB) – It might be kinda boring, with a typically-pedestrian K count that has spiked above eight Ks in four of his 24 turns this season, but Hamels consistently gets the job done. He has a current run of six consecutive quality starts, including a game at Coors Field, though it’s safe to say that he got lucky to escape with relatively light damage despite coughing up a season-high 14 hits and three walks to the Tigers over 7.0 innings in his last start. Preventing hits has been a key component of his success in 2016, so in that sense his last game was an extreme outlier, involving twice as many hits against as and of the previous six starts. The Rays were once a formidable opponent versus southpaws, but they traded away some of their anti-southpaw artillery at the the trade deadline and might be short another key cog if Logan Forsythe sits out for a third straight game with a sore back.

Rick Porcello BOS (at DET) – Porcello has been limiting the hits allowed this season, as 2016 currently stands as his only major league campaign with less than one hit against per innings. He is also walking fewer batters than efer before, checking in at just 1.5 BB/9, the net result of which is a 1.05 WHIP that’s 18 points better than any previous mark of his career. Home runs have also been an issue for Porcello, but recently he has kept the ball mostly in the yard, with just five homers allowed in his previous 10 starts (three of those came in the same game) covering 69.1 innings of work. He has gone more than 6.0 innings in seven straight turns, including 7.0 or more innings in each of his last four, with the run prevention to ring up quality starts in each turn, bringing his ERA down 0.63 runs over the span of his last nine starts.

Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. MIA) – Just two weeks ago, Cole looked to be getting his act together, coming off a three-start string with just three earned runs allowed over 20.0 innings pitched, including a three-hit complete game against the Mariners. But then he got roughed up a bit, with the Reds scoring four runs in 5.2 innings against Cole, though he still allowed just three hits in the contest. The wheels fell off the wagon in his last start, however, with Cole giving up an astounding 12 hits and six runs (five earned) in just 4.1 frames versus the Dodgers. He makes for a dicey play dye to the risk of self-implosion, but the Marlins just lost Giancarlo Stanton from their lineup and should pose a weak threat tonight.

Tanner Roark WAS (at ATL) – Roark is on a run in which he has thrown four straight quality starts, going more than six frames in each turn with a 1.65 ERA across the four starts. Even during this strong stretch, however, Roark has struck out six or fewer batters in each contest and has punched out just 17 total hitters in 27.1 innings. He hasn’t struck out more than a half-dozen batters in a game since June, putting the onus on his run prevention to compile fantasy points. Luckily, he’s facing the worst offense in baseball, creating the perfect opportunity for that run prevention to shine, so long as K-related expectations are kept in check.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
McHugh	0.313	4.27	0.336	4.16	0.261	0.770	0.362	3.82	0.295	0.01	22.8%
Miley	0.298	4.18	0.340	4.95	0.247	0.754	0.305	4.76	0.278	0.01	16.6%
Koehler	0.327	4.03	0.309	3.95	0.259	0.726	0.293	4.05	0.247	0.01	18.6%
Cole	0.293	2.49	0.276	3.12	0.262	0.705	0.332	2.84	0.267	0.01	19.6%
Wainwright	0.331	4.67	0.302	3.90	0.243	0.687	0.331	3.49	0.278	0.01	18.6%
Morgan	0.314	4.00	0.375	5.89	0.237	0.689	0.348	5.39	0.318	0.01	17.6%
Porcello	0.316	3.93	0.315	4.42	0.267	0.744	0.269	3.69	0.233	0.01	20.3%
Fulmer	0.241	1.58	0.291	2.98	0.272	0.774	0.248	3.46	0.206	0.01	21.7%
Norris	0.382	5.98	0.308	4.87	0.249	0.710	0.301	3.91	0.249	0.01	21.9%
Adleman			0.233	0.79	0.251	0.743	0.278	5.06	0.247	0.05	19.3%
Hamels	0.270	2.04	0.307	3.68	0.257	0.752	0.296	4.04	0.242	0.01	23.0%
Andriese	0.303	3.74	0.283	3.64	0.259	0.743	0.270	3.54	0.232	0.01	20.5%
Liriano	0.296	3.73	0.319	4.35	0.270	0.746	0.311	5.27	0.262	0.01	21.7%
Bauer	0.314	4.22	0.306	4.38	0.257	0.777	0.281	4.10	0.237	0.01	20.4%
Roark	0.306	2.94	0.301	3.94	0.252	0.683	0.280	3.51	0.232	0.01	19.9%
Teheran	0.349	4.47	0.249	2.76	0.249	0.728	0.235	3.70	0.204	0.01	22.4%
Graveman	0.339	3.77	0.324	4.68	0.252	0.704	0.297	4.64	0.277	0.01	13.9%
Shields	0.376	4.32	0.328	4.95	0.249	0.704	0.308	5.75	0.291	0.01	14.8%
Berrios	0.347	6.60	0.505	12.46	0.263	0.719	0.390	5.97	0.328	0.00	22.2%
Volquez	0.314	3.78	0.315	4.52	0.249	0.718	0.310	4.39	0.273	0.01	16.5%
Hendricks	0.310	2.73	0.255	3.52	0.271	0.783	0.249	3.39	0.206	0.01	22.3%
Anderson	0.248	0.90	0.324	4.41	0.250	0.747	0.300	3.57	0.253	0.02	20.2%
Tanaka	0.283	3.62	0.281	3.30	0.256	0.720	0.277	3.40	0.237	0.01	20.5%
Weaver	0.347	4.45	0.349	5.42	0.248	0.728	0.309	5.59	0.304	0.01	11.6%
Suter					0.259	0.738
LeBlanc			0.370	5.23	0.244	0.711	0.270	5.65	0.266	0.02	18.0%
Matz	0.308	2.93	0.293	3.23	0.266	0.723	0.313	3.39	0.252	0.01	23.6%
Cueto	0.281	2.64	0.289	3.73	0.240	0.707	0.290	3.00	0.235	0.01	22.4%
Greinke	0.273	2.65	0.243	2.50	0.238	0.683	0.301	3.78	0.26	0.01	20.5%
Cosart	0.308	4.28	0.348	5.14	0.262	0.736	0.296	4.50	0.254	0.02	13.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at LAA) – Tanaka failed to record more than seven strikeouts in any of his first 22 starts, but he has punched out eight hitters in each of the last two contests. It only took him 79 pitched to get through seven full frames in his last turn, though a couple of homers led to a four-spot of runs, the third time in four starts that he has given up at least that many tallies. His ERA has shot up 0.40 runs over the span of his last four starts, and after nearly the same number of innings his numbers are looking a lot like they did last season, except with even fewer strikeouts and more hits allowed on a per-inning basis.

Steven Matz NYM (at SF) – Matz has rebounded a bit over his last two starts, giving up a total of two runs across 13.1 innings with a 17:3 K:BB, as the only two runs came on solo homers. Matz had been off his game since early June, and his last two turns were among the only three games of 23-plus fantasy points (DraftKings) in his last 14 starts. The nine strikeouts that he managed against the Diamondbacks tied a season-high for Matz, exceeding every single-game total since his second start of the season, and he followed it up with just one hit and two walks allowed over 7.1 frames against the Padres. He faces a more daunting task tonight against the Giants, a club that he has faced just once this season but that he blanked over six innings back in April.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. WAS) – Expectations are pretty high for Teheran as he makes his first start back from the disabled list, with his first-half effectiveness lowering the price tag of opposing bats, though his own salary $8400 is more reasonably in line with expectations. As effective as he was during the first half of the season, Teheran tossed quality starts in just one of his final five turns before hitting the DL, and odds are that he will fall short of those dimensions in today’s game. Even if he is physically back to 100 percent, Teheran will likely give way to the beleaguered Atlanta bullpen before reaching six full frames, given that he had just one rehab start in which he threw just 75 pitches, and the disastrous return of Arodys Vizcaino suggests that the Braves bullpen is weaker than it was two days ago, not stronger.

Adam Wainwright STL (at PHI) – Wainwright endured a horrific stretch to start the season, holding a 6.80 ERA in mid-May, but he had brought that mark all the way down to 4.14 with a nice run of effective pitching through his first start of August, but the last two turns have reignited the dumpster fire. First, Waino gave up six runs over six frames against the Braves, an alarming performance against the game’s weakest offense. He then faced one of the top lineups in the game with even worse results, coughing up seven runs to the CUbs in just 2.0 innings of work. Rostering Waino is a big risk today, especially considering the limited upside in the strikeout department, but his soft opponent and not-too-distant track record of success will somewhat stoke the ownership rate, especially in large tournaments as gamers try to zig.

Zack Greinke ARI (at SD) – Greinke missed a month with a sore oblique, and though his performance in his first game back was relatively mundane, tossing a baseline quality start against the Mets, it was his follow-up to that performance that raised the red flags. Granted, Greinke was playing the top-ranked offense of the Red Sox in an interleague matchup, but giving up 10 hits and nine runs (including three homers) over just 1.2 innings is an qualified disaster no matter the pitcher or the opponent. It was his worst start in a season that has included a pair of seven-run blowups, and though tonight’s matchup with the Padres presents a much softer landing, the same club made life tough on a healthy Greinke the last time that he faced them, with four runs and only two strikeouts over 6.0 innings.

Michael Fulmer DET (vs. BOS) – The Tigers plan to limit Fulmer’s innings down the stretch, skipping starts and giving him extra rest between outings. Apparently that starts later, because Fulmer takes the hill today on regular rest, following his four-hit shutout of the Rangers in Texas. He threw a season-high 112 pitches in that game, an efficient total yet nonetheless one that could very well portend a quicker hook with Fulmer in tonight’s game. He pitched well against the mighty Red Sox less than a month ago, giving up three runs on seven hits (including two homers), and his nine strikeouts in the shutout of the Rangers broke a six-start streak with no more than a half-dozen Ks in any one start and just 24 total strikeouts in 40.1 innings. He either piles up a mountain of strikeouts or scrapes the bottom of the barrel, with seemingly no gear in-between, and the strength of his opponent causes me to lean toward the latter.

Tom Koehler MIA (at PIT)

Francisco Liriano TOR (at CLE)

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. TOR)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at COL)

Matt Andriese TB (vs. TEX)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at CHW)

Wade LeBlanc SEA (vs. MIL)

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. MIN)

Collin McHugh HOU (at BAL)

James Shields CHW (vs. OAK)

Jose Berrios MIN (at KC)

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. NYY)