Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, June 24th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-25 02:52:36

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Tepesch	LAD	PIT
Taillon	PIT	LAD	18	3.50	3.91	1.11		18.3%	5.6%	2.00	2.08
Milone	MIN	NYY	152	4.20	4.35	1.30	43.8%	17.2%	6.7%	1.30	1.23
Tanaka	NYY	MIN	246.2	3.28	3.52	1.00	66.7%	21.2%	4.4%	1.20	1.58
Moore	TBR	BAL	145.2	5.13	4.31	1.45		19.6%	7.6%	1.48	1.02
Gallardo	BAL	TBR	207.1	3.73	4.72	1.45	50.0%	15.0%	8.8%	0.74	1.59
Salazar	CLE	DET	265.2	3.08	3.48	1.13	12.5%	26.9%	8.4%	0.98	1.21
Zimmermann	DET	CLE	287.2	3.54	4.02	1.19	52.6%	18.5%	4.7%	1.00	1.16
Koehler	MIA	CHC	265.1	4.04	4.78	1.41	52.6%	17.7%	10.6%	0.88	1.30
Rea	SDP	CIN	103.1	4.88	4.54	1.36		17.8%	8.9%	0.78	1.53
Reed	CIN	SDP
Matz	NYM	ATL	108	2.58	3.38	1.17		24.1%	5.6%	0.75	1.68
Blair	ATL	NYM	46.1	7.19	5.87	1.71		12.6%	12.2%	1.36	1.03
Price	BOS	TEX	320	3.01	3.28	1.09	52.4%	25.8%	5.5%	0.84	1.17
Martinez	TEX	BOS	132	4.02	4.98	1.48	27.3%	13.5%	8.4%	1.09	1.29
Sanchez	TOR	CWS	183.2	3.28	3.95	1.26		19.7%	9.9%	0.83	2.79
Rodon	CWS	TOR	215	3.89	4.14	1.46		22.7%	10.4%	0.92	1.48
Scherzer	WAS	MIL	330	2.95	2.70	0.94	60.0%	31.2%	4.6%	1.23	0.77
Davies	MIL	WAS	103.2	3.65	4.21	1.17		19.0%	8.3%	0.95	1.82
Keuchel	HOU	KCR	326.2	3.31	3.05	1.12	50.0%	23.0%	6.1%	0.77	3.03
Volquez	KCR	HOU	292	3.73	4.34	1.32	50.0%	18.3%	8.4%	0.77	1.52
Bradley	ARI	COL	76.2	5.28	4.69	1.46		19.9%	12.5%	1.17	1.72
Anderson	COL	ARI	12	2.25	2.87	0.92		21.7%	2.2%	0.00	2.86
Neal	OAK	LAA	14	8.36	3.99	1.43		8.3%	0.0%	2.57	2.07
Weaver	LAA	OAK	243.2	4.80	5.02	1.30	52.4%	13.3%	5.2%	1.55	0.70
Martinez	STL	SEA	262	3.06	3.60	1.23		23.0%	8.3%	0.65	2.16
LeBlanc	SEA	STL
Eflin	PHI	SFG
Peavy	SFG	PHI	183	4.33	4.37	1.25	42.1%	18.0%	6.2%	0.98	0.89

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (at MIL) – Scherzer is on an excellent run, striking out 38 batters in his last 28.0 innings pitched covering four starts. Whiffing 11 Phillies (as he did on June 1) or 10 Padres (June 18) is only so impressive given the weakness of their respective attacks, but his 11-strikeout, two-baserunner performance against the Cubs on the road made the league stand up and notice. He still hasn’t kicked the homer habit, with three bombs bequeathed over those four starts, but that’s about the only offense that teams have been able to muster. I supposed that means that Ryan Braun or Chris Carter will clear the wall in Miller Park tonight, but the empty-swinging Brewers will pave an easy trail for Scherzer to record his third consecutive games with double-digit strikeouts.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Danny Salazar CLE (at DET) – Salazar lacks the inning-counts to match Scherzer in K upside, despite the fact that Salazar has an AL-leading 10.7 K/9 so far this season, and in fact the Cleveland right-hander has reached 10 strikeouts just once this season (that being exactly 10 Ks versus the Astros in mid-May). However, he gets the benefit of facing a Tigers squad that recently lost slugger JD Martinez, and though Miguel Cabrera has had his own share of success in his past against Salazar (1.008 OPS in 28 PA), the Tigers aren’t nearly so fierce without their power source plugged in at the top of the lineup.

David Price BOS (at TEX) – Well, he’s given up at least one run in every start, with two or more earnies in 13 of 15 turns, and the recent culprit has been the long ball: nine homers allowed in his last seven games, yet at seven full innings pitched in six of those seven. He’s likely to rack up innings and has a shot to pile up strikeouts, and that upside vaults him near the top of the pitcher ranks. He’s probably happy just to get out of the AL East, whose teams have been responsible for all four starts that involved five or more earned runs against Price this season.

steven-matz-300x200

Steven Matz NYM (at ATL) – Matz had a little hiccup against Milwaukee two starts ago, but he got in track with another low-run start in his last turn, limiting these Braves to two tallies over 6.0 innings. The Brewer game (four earned over 6.0 IP) was the only time that Matz had given up more than two earned since his first start of the season, and with a K-per-inning on his resume Matz could have a big day in tap today against the Braves. He’s faced him three times already this season, and the results are about what one would expect: a 1.80 ERA and 23:3 K:BB ratio in 20.0 innings, including a 2-0 record in three ballgames. Expect more of the same.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. MIN) -Tanaka’s upside is limited by the low K rate this season – 6.6 K/9, 18.5 percent, no more than five strikeouts in any of his last six starts despite going more than six innings in each – but he generally keep runs off the scoreboard. He has given up two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 14 starts this year, including his last turn, in which he went 8.0 frames on the road against these Twins with only one runner crossing the plate. He’s a solid choice as an SP2, but is likely miscast as an SP1.

Carlos Martinez STL (at SEA) – After spending most of May as a pitcher out of sorts, CarMart has figured things out since, including a four-game stretch of quality starts that features a composite ERA of 1.23 and a 24:7 K:BB ratio in 29.1 innings, including a 3-0 record in those games. He has scored more than 20 points on DraftKings in each of those four games, following a four-start stretch of scoring less than eight point on DK in each turn.

Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. LAD) – Taillon was hit hard in his last turn, including four runs against the right hander – including three homers – in just 4.0 innings. But that game came against a Cubs team that can tear apart any pitcher, following a pair of easy starts against the busted Mets. It’s tough to tell where the truth lies within that track record, but his minor-league stats might help to provide some context: a 2.04 ERA and 61:6 ratio of K:BB in 61.2 innings. The K rate might not be up to the promise of his pre-surgery days, but the control looks better than ever.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Tepesch					0.264	0.734
Taillon	0.340	3.97			0.242	0.722	0.245	5.40	0.242	0.06	18.3%
Milone	0.287	4.21	0.333	4.20	0.255	0.734	0.284	4.43	0.258	0.01	17.2%
Tanaka	0.274	3.48	0.279	3.11	0.243	0.698	0.246	3.75	0.218	0.01	21.2%
Moore	0.323	5.61	0.360	4.93	0.239	0.680	0.323	4.72	0.282	0.00	19.6%
Gallardo	0.339	4.51	0.311	2.98	0.242	0.707	0.306	4.05	0.27	0.00	15.0%
Salazar	0.282	3.39	0.282	2.81	0.269	0.744	0.270	3.48	0.212	0.01	26.9%
Zimmermann	0.315	3.61	0.285	3.46	0.251	0.729	0.294	3.72	0.257	0.00	18.5%
Hendricks	0.323	3.23	0.255	3.94	0.261	0.699	0.284	3.29	0.231	0.01	22.7%
Koehler	0.341	4.44	0.298	3.64	0.249	0.741	0.289	4.35	0.249	0.00	17.7%
Rea	0.302	4.37	0.332	5.56	0.244	0.701	0.294	4.07	0.251	0.00	17.8%
Reed					0.251	0.712
Matz	0.292	1.82	0.272	2.81	0.228	0.621	0.307	3.00	0.243	0.01	24.1%
Blair	0.388	4.76	0.362	9.51	0.241	0.712	0.305	5.80	0.286	0.00	12.6%
Price	0.285	2.78	0.276	3.08	0.262	0.747	0.290	3.00	0.228	0.01	25.8%
Martinez	0.302	3.20	0.389	4.81	0.272	0.768	0.298	5.00	0.274	0.01	13.5%
Sanchez	0.343	3.59	0.241	2.97	0.248	0.696	0.272	3.99	0.231	0.00	19.7%
Rodon	0.243	3.07	0.354	4.20	0.266	0.789	0.325	3.99	0.26	0.01	22.7%
Scherzer	0.304	3.22	0.224	2.68	0.255	0.713	0.263	3.05	0.203	0.01	31.2%
Davies	0.291	2.42	0.297	4.72	0.246	0.717	0.256	4.06	0.224	0.01	19.0%
Keuchel	0.229	3.00	0.291	3.40	0.274	0.736	0.288	3.16	0.233	0.00	23.0%
Volquez	0.296	3.28	0.314	4.20	0.248	0.744	0.293	3.87	0.249	0.00	18.3%
Bradley	0.321	4.05	0.337	6.63	0.270	0.779	0.279	4.80	0.24	0.00	19.9%
Anderson					0.268	0.773	0.286	1.70	0.222	0.11	21.7%
Neal					0.253	0.715	0.314	6.12	0.333	0.00	8.3%
Weaver	0.342	4.42	0.340	5.16	0.248	0.696	0.280	5.10	0.272	0.00	13.3%
Martinez	0.324	3.88	0.255	2.25	0.249	0.739	0.297	3.34	0.235	0.01	23.0%
LeBlanc					0.235	0.679
Eflin					0.263	0.737
Peavy	0.321	3.65	0.316	4.93	0.239	0.670	0.29	3.89	0.254	0.01	18.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at CHW) – It’s tough what to make of Sanchez, but if there;s one thing that he represents, it’s risk. Sure, he’s facing a light offense (the White Sox are in the bottom-third of the AL with 4.11 R/G), occasionally spikes a great game (12 Ks at Detroit), and can chew up innings on the right day. He also has three different games of six earnies surrendered, has only topped eight Ks in a game the one time. One thing that Sanchez does exceptionally well is limit the home run, and aside from a weird four-homer game against the Orioles two starts ago, he had a string of just one homer given up in his other nine games.

Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. CLE) – He’s similar to Sanchez, except Zimmermann can be even more maddening and carries the additional risk of an exceptionally low-strikeout ballgame. He has given up six or more runs in three of his last six starts but two or fewer tallies in the other three, and one has to worry given two of the three clunkers were against the weak offenses of the White Sox and Twins.

Cody Reed CIN (vs. SD)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at MIA)

Carlos Rodon CHW (at TOR) – Rodon has been pitching well lately and the Jays offense suffers without their bat-flipping Joey, but the remaining hitters still love southpaws and Rodon will have a tough task. He has thrown quality starts in four of his last six games, a stretch that includes a 3.30 ERA and 27:10 K:BB ratio in 20 frames, but the 36 runs he’s given up are indicative of the overall problem. He has shaved 1.4 BB/9 (3.6 percentage points) off his walk rate but given it back (and then some) in hits and homers allowed, indicating that the young lefty still has some learning to do when it comes to his commanding the strike zone. With just 34.1 innings at the minors before being thrown into the major league fire, Rodon is learning through the school of hard knocks how to pitch at the highest level.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at KC)

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. HOU)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. PHI)

Zach Davies MIL (vs. WAS)

Matt Moore TB (at BAL)

Nick Tepesch LAD (at PIT)

Colin Rea SD (at CIN)

Aaron Blair ATL (vs. NYM) – The only thing keeping Blair and his 7.19 ERA out of Fold territory is that he is pitching against a Mets offense that is bombed out and depleted. He’s might still be worth stacking against.

Yovani Gallardo BAL (vs. TB)

Tommy Milone MIN (at NYY)