Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 12th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2017-05-12 19:59:44

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	Team	Opp	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%
Lance McCullers	HOU	NYY	123.1	3.28	3.41	1.42	42.86%	29.7%	11.1%	0.73	57.6%
Nicholas Pivetta	PHI	WAS
Christian Bergman	SEA	TOR	28.1	7.62	4.07	1.66		17.9%	5.2%	2.22	39.8%
Ervin Santana	MIN	CLE	228.1	3.04	4.3	1.13	46.67%	20.2%	7.5%	0.99	42.4%
Alex Cobb	TBR	BOS	65	5.26	4.48	1.46	20.00%	14.7%	6.0%	1.52	49.3%
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	MIA	153	4.35	4.15	1.32	31.82%	21.0%	7.0%	1.35	41.5%
Jesse Hahn	OAK	TEX	82	4.72	4.88	1.45	22.22%	14.9%	9.0%	0.99	47.9%
Matt Harvey	NYM	MIL	127.2	4.93	4.49	1.42	35.29%	17.5%	6.9%	1.06	43.0%
Jhoulys Chacin	SDP	CHW	183.1	4.91	4.39	1.43	27.27%	18.6%	8.8%	0.93	49.3%
Eddie Butler	CHC	STL	64	7.17	4.53	1.69	22.22%	16.0%	7.2%	1.83	45.8%
Chris Tillman	BAL	KCR	177	3.66	4.63	1.28	46.67%	19.5%	9.4%	0.97	41.3%
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	COL	197.2	1.87	2.53	0.77	80.95%	30.7%	2.5%	0.68	48.7%
Tyler Glasnow	PIT	ARI	50.1	5.36	4.78	1.73		21.5%	13.2%	0.89	45.0%
Jordan Zimmermann	DET	LAA	138.2	5.19	4.92	1.41	33.33%	14.4%	6.0%	1.43	38.2%
Scott Feldman	CIN	SFG	117.2	3.9	4.23	1.33	20.00%	17.5%	7.0%	1.07	47.4%
Jordan Montgomery	NYY	HOU	28.1	3.81	4.59	1.38		21.7%	11.7%	0.64	40.5%
Tanner Roark	WAS	PHI	251.2	2.93	4.3	1.17	54.55%	20.1%	8.5%	0.75	48.4%
Joseph Biagini	TOR	SEA
Josh Tomlin	CLE	MIN	204.1	4.8	4.18	1.23	44.83%	16.1%	2.7%	1.72	44.8%
Rick Porcello	BOS	TBR	266.1	3.28	3.74	1.06	45.45%	21.7%	3.8%	1.05	42.4%
Jose Urena	MIA	ATL	105	5.23	4.68	1.36	33.33%	14.8%	7.2%	1.11	46.4%
Andrew Cashner	TEX	OAK	159.1	4.8	4.95	1.51	22.22%	18.0%	11.2%	1.19	47.0%
Matt Garza	MIL	NYM	119.1	4.22	4.47	1.46	26.32%	16.0%	7.3%	0.98	53.8%
Miguel Gonzalez	CHW	SDP	174.2	3.61	4.63	1.25	39.13%	16.5%	6.1%	0.77	39.8%
Mike Leake	STL	CHC	217	4.15	3.9	1.25	40.00%	16.6%	4.1%	0.87	53.6%
Danny Duffy	KCR	BAL	223.1	3.51	3.78	1.18	46.15%	23.8%	6.4%	1.17	37.8%
Tyler Chatwood	COL	LAD	201.2	4.06	4.56	1.35	44.44%	17.5%	10.4%	1.07	57.2%
Patrick Corbin	ARI	PIT	195	4.89	4.33	1.53	25.00%	18.7%	8.9%	1.34	52.6%
Matt Shoemaker	LAA	DET	198	4.14	4.01	1.25	51.85%	21.3%	5.8%	1.23	39.9%
Johnny Cueto	SFG	CIN	263.2	3.07	3.66	1.12	62.50%	22.3%	5.3%	0.79	48.5%

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Lance McCullers HOU (at NYY, $9,500) – It wasn’t an easy decision at the top, You have Clayton Kershaw, who has carved his initials into the All-In throne, but he’s playing in the hell that is Coors Field and thus can’t be recommended as the top arm on the board. McCullers has the fourth-highest price tag of the pitchers on today’s slate, and though he is facing a Yankees offense that has bludgeoned opponents overall this season, the possibility of a big K-count and the lack of other enticing options conspire to put McCullers on top of the heap with the highest expected profit margin. The right-hander has been holding up his end of the bargain, with a 3.40 ERA and 10.6 K/9 (28.9 percent) in 42.1 innings this season. He’s cruised through his last two starts, with a 1.35 ERA and 14:4 K:BB in 13.1 frames since the calendar flipped to May, and his upside is underscored by the fact that McCullers already has a pair of games this season with double-digit strikeouts.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. CIN, $12,600) – Cueto has the best combination of talent and context on the board, but his price tag has been ratcheted upward to account for the lack of other options, and Cueto’s performance this season has been on a level that will make it exceedingly difficult to profit off his salary. He has been steady overall, scoring more than 20 points on DraftKings in four of his last five non-Colorado starts, but he’s only cracked 25 points once this season and has topped out at the 27.55 points from his last start. The silver lining? That start was also against the Reds, and it featured 10 strikeouts, three more than in any other turn this year. Cueto has spun a quality start in each of his last five non-Colorado games, going 7.0 innings in four of those games, and his upside is related to the ability to go deep into games with minimal damage rather than racking up impressive K-counts.

Dylan Bundy BAL (at KC, $7,500) – Bundy has ranked very high on this list for his last several turns, but he just keeps churning out quality starts against tough opponents, and yet DraftKings keeps assigning him the salary of a middling starter. The strikeouts have left something to be desired (just 28 Ks in 45.2 IP), but he has the weapons to boost that total, and the fact that three of his first six starts were against the Red Sox – who have the fewest strikeouts in baseball by a healthy margin – indicates that there are likely more strikeouts in the tank. He struck out a combined 14 Blue Jays over 13.0 innings in his first two non-Boston starts (both against Toronto), though he hasn’t topped three strikeouts in a game since. The low K-count is still a concern, but it’s easier to forgive that transgression when Bundy is about to face the lowest-scoring offense in the game.

Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. PIT, $8,100) – Things were rolling along great for Corbin, who entered his last start with a 2.29 ERA and a string of five consecutive quality starts under his belt, but then he coughed up an eight-spot in 4.0 innings to the Rockies, skyrocketing his ERA to 3.69 in the process. However, that game was in Coors Field, so Corbin essentially receives a mulligan for the poor performance. He has a solid-yet-unspectacular 33:12 K:BB in 39.1 innings this season, but he has spiked more than a half-dozen strikeouts in a pair of starts this season and could reach his performance ceiling today against a Pirates team that is struggling without key cogs such as Starling Marte missing from the lineup.

Ervin Santana MIN (at CLE, $8,200) – After years of relative futility, it’s difficult to accept that Santana has finally turned the corner to become a valuable fantasy asset, but here we are in mid-May and his 23.4 FPPG are the highest non-Kershaw total for any pitcher on today’s slate. He carried a ridiculous 0.66 ERA into his last start, going six turns and 41.0 innings with just three total runs allowed, never giving up more than a single tally in any one start. It was just long enough to gain the confidence of DFS gamers, so of course he went out and tripled the earnies that were on his watch by giving up six runs to the Red Sox in his last start, walking a season-high four batters along the way. Santana had given up two homers prior to that game, but he coughed up four homers to the Sawx in the forgettable outing. So where to go from here? Did it really take a horrific turn to get him into the Raise tier? Not exactly, as the Red Sox are on fire right now and those six previous starts cannot be ignored, and his standing in the Raise column has as much to do with the lack of viable alternative and his reasonable salary than it does any newfound affection for Santana.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	Team	Opp	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	SIERA	BABIP	FIP
Lance McCullers	HOU	NYY	0.324	3.28	0.311	3.29	0.252	3.41	0.358	3.09
Nicholas Pivetta	PHI	WAS
Christian Bergman	SEA	TOR	0.443	8.64	0.382	7.2	0.317	4.07	0.347	5.5
Ervin Santana	MIN	CLE	0.279	2.85	0.284	3.22	0.223	4.3	0.257	3.89
Alex Cobb	TBR	BOS	0.432	7.77	0.303	3.76	0.293	4.48	0.315	4.85
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	MIA	0.332	4.3	0.327	4.39	0.259	4.15	0.301	4.31
Jesse Hahn	OAK	TEX	0.36	6.62	0.294	3.28	0.269	4.88	0.299	4.44
Matt Harvey	NYM	MIL	0.351	5.43	0.319	4.43	0.281	4.49	0.322	4.1
Jhoulys Chacin	SDP	CHW	0.335	5.78	0.309	4.06	0.265	4.39	0.311	4.09
Eddie Butler	CHC	STL	0.379	6	0.411	8.03	0.323	4.53	0.354	5.44
Chris Tillman	BAL	KCR	0.315	4.05	0.313	3.34	0.239	4.63	0.279	4.2
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	COL	0.178	1.07	0.232	2.14	0.189	2.53	0.254	2.13
Tyler Glasnow	PIT	ARI	0.394	6.52	0.339	4.65	0.268	4.78	0.338	4.51
Jordan Zimmermann	DET	LAA	0.318	5.35	0.382	5.03	0.286	4.92	0.306	4.8
Scott Feldman	CIN	SFG	0.349	3.35	0.308	4.25	0.261	4.23	0.296	4.15
Jordan Montgomery	NYY	HOU	0.254	5.4	0.318	3.6	0.238	4.59	0.299	3.7
Tanner Roark	WAS	PHI	0.292	2.46	0.271	3.34	0.224	4.3	0.267	3.79
Joseph Biagini	TOR	SEA
Josh Tomlin	CLE	MIN	0.288	3.93	0.362	5.51	0.275	4.18	0.289	4.66
Rick Porcello	BOS	TBR	0.268	2.79	0.298	3.81	0.235	3.74	0.276	3.49
Jose Urena	MIA	ATL	0.325	5.73	0.328	4.68	0.263	4.68	0.287	4.58
Andrew Cashner	TEX	OAK	0.36	4.61	0.346	4.99	0.263	4.95	0.301	4.9
Matt Garza	MIL	NYM	0.364	5	0.3	3.58	0.275	4.47	0.31	4.18
Miguel Gonzalez	CHW	SDP	0.31	2.85	0.292	4.38	0.254	4.63	0.29	3.74
Mike Leake	STL	CHC	0.312	4.19	0.307	4.11	0.269	3.9	0.306	3.59
Danny Duffy	KCR	BAL	0.216	2.06	0.325	3.82	0.244	3.78	0.295	3.77
Tyler Chatwood	COL	LAD	0.325	4.38	0.315	3.73	0.245	4.56	0.276	4.58
Patrick Corbin	ARI	PIT	0.302	4.2	0.362	5.13	0.278	4.33	0.319	4.67
Matt Shoemaker	LAA	DET	0.31	4.43	0.327	3.8	0.257		0.302	3.99
Johnny Cueto	SFG	CIN		2.59	0.273	3.5	0.238		0.291	3.21

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at COL, $11,300) – Kersh is typically an automatic selection for the All-In seat, but this is a pitcher with a career 4.71 ERA in Coors Field across 18 starts – easily his highest mark in any ballpark where he’s pitched more than once – and in his last turn at altitude (April 8) he gave up four runs, including three homers, over 6.0 innings of work. This is the highest that any pitcher has ranked when making a start in Denver, and it’s likely the highest that any pitcher will rank at altitude, but not even Kershaw deserves Raise status in that ballpark, and I say that before considering his egregious price tag, as it will be extremely difficult for Kershaw to turn a profit on $11300 while pitching in Coors Field. It pains me to say this, but it’s best to look elsewhere, just for today.

Mike Leake STL (vs. CHC, $7,300) – Leake has been nearly untouchable this season. His 1.79 ERA leads the National League, as does his 2.53 FIP and homer rate of 0.2 HR/9. His walk rate of 1.6 BB/9 seems that it is too low and bound for regression, at least on the surface, but in light of last season’s 1.5 BB/9 rate, he is right in line with previous performance. He hasn’t put up a rate higher than 2.3 BB/9 in any season since he was a rookie. That said, the strikeouts have been a modest part of his profile throughout his career, and his current .248 BABiP is obviously due for regression, so there is plenty of downside remaining, but such is to be expected from a pitcher who has put up a statline so far over his head, else he would sit comfortably in the above tier. Well, that and if he weren’t facing the World Champion Cubs.

Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TB, $9,700) – Porcello is a quality start machine, with six QS in his seven games started, with the only exception being a forgettable eight-run outing in his third start of the season. Unfortunately for Porcello, that fateful outing came against these same Rays, in a game that saw four hits leave the yard. He’s given up a total of eight homers already this season in 43.1 innings, but the other true outcome numbers have been sparkling over that same stretch, as Porcello has put together 45 strikeouts against just nine walks in the first six weeks of this season. He has scored more than 20 points on DraftKings in each of his last four turns, and odds are that he’ll be able to do a better job of keeping the Rays in the ballpark this time around, but the price tag is still too high for a pitcher who has maxed out 25.55 points this season (in his last start), leaving little to no room for profit.

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. PHI, $8,800) – His FIP of 3.79 is a dead ringer for last season’s fielding-independent pitching performance, a mark that helps to explain the cynicism with which many evaluators saw a 2016 season that featured a likely-unsustainable 2.83 ERA, and in fact his current mark of 3.46 might be artificially low if we are to trust the FIP stat as an oracle. I have no such trust for the FIP stat, believing that Roark has a skill-set that is better than that mark, yet I have often found myself to be the low man on the totem pole with respect to Roark because I still see last season’s run-prevention as an aberration. He gets a boost with facing a weak Philly lineup, but Roark’s upside is still limited given the strikeout-rich environment of today’s MLB and the power of Ks in DFS (he has a career rate of just 6.6 K/9).

Danny Duffy KC (vs. BAL, $8,600) – After his first four starts, the line on Duffy was that he had reverted back to pre-2016 peripherals but had managed to keep runs off the scoreboard, with an ERA that was sure to climb if he didn’t improve the K and walk rates to something more resembling his 2016 performance. Then he went out and gave up six runs apiece in consecutive starts, both against the White Sox, and despite rebounding with a one-run effort against Cleveland his ERA now stands at 3.50, nearly a perfect match for the 3.52 FIP that is based solely on his peripherals. With just 6.0 K/9 this season against 3.3 BB/9, the only thing sparing Duffy from a more precipitous fate is a low rate of homers, something that is bound to be tested today against an Orioles lineup that is loaded with sluggers. He hasn’t struck out more than three batters in any of his last three starts, making it nearly impossible to justify the $8600 salary.

Andrew Cashner TEX (vs. OAK, $7,000)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (vs. SD, $8,000)

Matt Shoemaker LAA, (vs. DET, $7,900)

Matt Garza MIL (vs. NYM, $7,700)

Alex Cobb TB (at BOS, $7,400)

Tyler Glasnow PIT (at ARI, $6,400)

Matt Harvey NYM (at MIL, $6,900)

Jose Urena MIA (vs. ATL, $6,700)

Jordan Montgomery NYY (vs. HOU, $7,100)

Jesse Hahn OAK (at TEX, $6,800)

Scott Feldman CIN (at SF, $7,800)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at MIA, $7,500)

Jhoulys Chacin SD (at CHW, $6,600)

Eddie Butler CHC (at STL, $5,200)

Jordan Zimmermann DET (at LAA, $6,500)

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. MIN, $7,200)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Christian Bergman SEA (at TOR, $5,400)

Joe Biagini TOR (vs. SEA, $4,900)

Nick Pivetta PHI (at WAS, $5,100)

Tyler Chatwood COL (vs. LAD, $5,700)