Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 6th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-07 03:02:13

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Scherzer	WAS	CHC	266.2	2.90	2.75	0.96	60.0%	29.9%	4.4%	1.08	0.82
Lackey	CHC	WAS	251.1	2.97	3.87	1.20	57.9%	19.9%	6.0%	0.86	1.38
Porcello	BOS	NYY	204.2	4.57	3.58	1.29	55.6%	21.4%	5.1%	1.32	1.40
Pineda	NYY	BOS	187.2	4.65	3.16	1.28	75.0%	23.5%	3.7%	1.34	1.51
Hill	OAK	BAL	61	2.07	2.74	0.95		32.0%	7.5%	0.59	1.50
Wright	BAL	OAK	68	5.82	4.87	1.47		14.6%	8.0%	1.59	0.97
Maeda	LAD	TOR	32	1.41	3.43	0.94		22.6%	4.8%	0.56	1.29
Stroman	TOR	LAD	70	2.96	3.67	0.96	66.7%	16.9%	6.3%	0.77	2.52
Hamels	TEX	DET	242.1	3.60	3.54	1.21	58.8%	24.0%	7.7%	0.97	1.57
Zimmermann	DET	TEX	234.2	3.22	3.86	1.18	52.6%	19.4%	4.8%	0.96	1.18
Ventura	KCR	CLE	190.1	4.02	3.98	1.31	44.4%	21.9%	9.6%	0.80	1.71
Salazar	CLE	KCR	215	3.31	3.43	1.11	12.5%	26.2%	7.8%	1.00	1.17
Cravy	MIL	CIN	48.1	5.40	4.56	1.59		18.4%	10.1%	0.93	0.95
Adleman	CIN	MIL
Velasquez	PHI	MIA
Chen	MIA	PHI	223	3.47	3.94	1.20	31.6%	19.3%	5.1%	1.29	1.08
Greinke	ARI	ATL	260.1	2.21	3.35	0.93	50.0%	23.0%	4.8%	0.66	1.44
Blair	ATL	ARI	11.1	3.18	6.18	1.15		9.5%	11.9%	0.00	0.79
Nolasco	MIN	CWS	70.2	5.48	3.77	1.37	16.7%	20.8%	5.6%	0.89	1.18
Latos	CWS	MIN	145.2	4.32	4.07	1.26	66.7%	18.8%	6.5%	0.99	1.31
Walker	SEA	HOU	199.2	4.15	3.58	1.17		22.5%	5.2%	1.17	1.10
Fister	HOU	SEA	132.1	4.28	4.60	1.41	58.3%	13.7%	6.3%	1.29	1.36
Liriano	PIT	STL	214.2	3.44	3.51	1.24	12.5%	26.0%	9.7%	0.84	1.95
Martinez	STL	PIT	214.1	2.94	3.48	1.22		23.8%	8.0%	0.71	1.97
Archer	TBR	LAA	244.1	3.46	3.12	1.20	55.0%	29.1%	8.0%	0.96	1.35
Richards	LAA	TBR	242	3.46	3.95	1.25	65.0%	20.7%	9.0%	0.82	1.90
Bettis	COL	SFG	152	4.14	4.05	1.34		19.0%	7.7%	0.95	1.70
Bumgarner	SFG	COL	254	2.94	3.04	1.06	47.6%	27.2%	5.1%	0.92	1.12
Syndergaard	NYM	SDP	182.1	3.11	2.78	1.04		28.7%	5.1%	0.99	1.51
Pomeranz	SDP	NYM	115	3.37	3.63	1.17	25.0%	24.8%	9.3%	0.78	1.13

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at SD) – Well, yesterday’s recommendation that Jacob deGrom was the bee’s knees among pitchers didn’t work out so hot, as he posted a modest line with five innings, three runs allowed and just two strikeouts in a game played in weirdly damp weather for San Diego, though his high level of ownership meant that the results largely washed out in cash games. It’s teammate Noah Syndergaard turn to occupy the top spot tonight, and though he is a near-automatic all-in regardless of opponent, the fact that he is facing the Padres theoretically vaults him even higher. If lightning does strike Mets hurlers twice in San Diego, then it will take an even brighter bolt to take the hammer out of Thor’s hands.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Yesterday’s pitching slate may have been a bit light, but the weight of today’s intrigue on the mound more than makes up the difference. We are overwhelmed with great pitchers, nearly all of whom carry reasons for caution, and there is once again a significant cliff between top the no. 1 and no. 2 pitching options on today’s slate. Yesterday was odd because it was devoid of options in the raise column, but tonight our cup runneth over.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. COL) – Bummer has been back to his dominant self over the past three starts, with 19.2 innings of a 1.83 ERA, 24 strikeouts and just six walks. Trevor Story has been hitting well of late and is slugging over .600 whether at home or on the road, but the Rockies as an offense have still been sailing at half-mast when away from Coors this season. One might assume that Bummer neutralizes the left-hand-hitting Carlos Gonzalez, but in his career CarGo has a triple slash of .348/.400/.761 in 50 plate appearances against Bumgarner, tied for the third most head-to-head matchups that Bum has had against any hitter in his career. Gonzalez has hit five home runs off of the southpaw in those 50 PA, two more homers than any other hitter has against Bumgarner at the major league level. That’s a lot of conflicting information, so it’s up to the gamer to balance the equation and see if Bum is the missing variable.

Max Scherzer WAS (at CHC) – This equation is relatively simple: 0.9*(good Scherzer) – (Cubs offense rules). Interestingly, that still adds up to the third-most enticing arm on today’s slate, but the upside is a longshot due to Scherzer’s relative lack of dominance in ’16 and the Cubs run-scoring machine.

Chris Archer TB (at LAA) – It’s a rollercoaster no matter which category you ride, with his hits, homers, runs, strikeouts and walks going through loop-d-loops and corkscrews from game to game. One minute he’s getting torched for six runs against the Red Sox, and the next he’s dominating the Orioles (who ripped him earlier in the season) with 6.2 blank frames and 10 punchouts. In five starts, he’s posted six or fewers Ks in three turns and 10 or more strikeouts in the other two starts. His last start featured as many walks (four) as strikeouts, but only one hit and two runs allowed against Toronto. It’s a dice roll, but if his pitch command survives the trip to LA then Archer could profit nicely.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. PIT) – The strikeouts have been low, with a half-dozen Ks or less in each of his four April starts, but he rebounded with eight punchouts against the Nats in his last start. Martinez has thrown six or more frames in every start and gone into the seventh inning in each of the last four, and in his last start the right-hander took just 87 pitches to go 6.2 innings. He’s beaten the Cubs and dominated the Diamondbacks in the desert, so his opponent will hardly be intimidating.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at HOU) – Wit ha K:BB ratio of 29:3 in 30.0 innings this season, Walker incredible peripheral stats to go with his 1.80 ERA, and leading the American league with 9.67 strikeouts for every one walk he’s allowed this season. The whiffs all came at once, with an 11-K game two starts ago yet no more than six strikeouts in any of his other four starts. That 11-K gem was worth 32.55 points on DraftKings, and was against… the Astros.

Danny Salazar CLE (vs. KC) – 42 percent of the batters that Salazar has faced this season have ended the interaction with a walk or a strikeout. His 4.2 H/9 is the lowest hit rate in the American League and he’s surrendered just one home run, but with 34 strikeouts and 15 walks in 30 innings, the right-hander has had to work hard through each of his outings, but things should be different tonight against the league’s most contact-heavy lineup.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Scherzer	0.297	3.13	0.231	2.67	0.248	0.738	0.270	2.91	0.209	0.01	29.9%
Lackey	0.327	2.97	0.269	2.97	0.245	0.708	0.293	3.53	0.249	0.01	19.9%
Porcello	0.330	4.41	0.331	4.78	0.246	0.733	0.320	4.04	0.272	0.01	21.4%
Pineda	0.333	4.30	0.339	4.97	0.268	0.750	0.336	3.61	0.278	0.01	23.5%
Hill	0.231	2.57	0.252	1.91	0.241	0.675	0.267	2.66	0.185	0.03	32.0%
Wright	0.402	5.46	0.340	6.14	0.248	0.701	0.300	5.52	0.283	0.00	14.6%
Maeda	0.230	1.76	0.240	1.08	0.262	0.780	0.253	2.79	0.205	0.05	22.6%
Stroman	0.237	3.29	0.264	2.48	0.244	0.726	0.219	3.71	0.198	0.02	16.9%
Hamels	0.296	2.19	0.301	4.00	0.277	0.793	0.295	3.65	0.237	0.01	24.0%
Zimmermann	0.320	3.38	0.268	3.05	0.259	0.736	0.297	3.61	0.255	0.01	19.4%
Ventura	0.315	4.99	0.295	3.04	0.251	0.721	0.292	3.80	0.237	0.01	21.9%
Salazar	0.288	3.69	0.279	2.95	0.265	0.732	0.268	3.51	0.213	0.01	26.2%
Cravy	0.378	4.98	0.348	5.74	0.246	0.698	0.338	4.31	0.285	0.00	18.4%
Adleman					0.256	0.710
Velasquez					0.258	0.692
Chen	0.248	1.83	0.343	3.99	0.249	0.680	0.288	4.10	0.255	0.01	19.3%
Greinke	0.266	2.43	0.232	2.04	0.254	0.675	0.250	2.90	0.204	0.01	23.0%
Blair					0.265	0.740	0.242	3.69	0.216	0.05	9.5%
Nolasco	0.318	5.51	0.339	5.45	0.251	0.701	0.340	3.37	0.281	0.00	20.8%
Latos	0.331	4.92	0.293	3.81	0.242	0.696	0.291	3.83	0.252	0.01	18.8%
Walker	0.292	3.65	0.316	4.77	0.247	0.743	0.294	3.77	0.247	0.01	22.5%
Fister	0.340	4.40	0.346	4.15	0.240	0.715	0.301	4.74	0.281	0.00	13.7%
Liriano	0.265	3.11	0.295	3.53	0.231	0.668	0.289	3.47	0.222	0.01	26.0%
Martinez	0.329	3.67	0.257	2.26	0.266	0.740	0.299	3.30	0.236	0.01	23.8%
Archer	0.276	3.47	0.294	3.45	0.248	0.705	0.304	3.13	0.227	0.01	29.1%
Richards	0.272	3.14	0.319	3.85	0.243	0.696	0.278	3.77	0.231	0.01	20.7%
Bettis	0.315	4.10	0.332	4.19	0.266	0.746	0.301	3.94	0.257	0.01	19.0%
Bumgarner	0.238	2.66	0.283	3.00	0.261	0.711	0.289	2.97	0.225	0.01	27.2%
Syndergaard	0.287	3.50	0.260	2.75	0.241	0.681	0.289	2.92	0.222	0.01	28.7%
Pomeranz	0.217	2.45	0.307	3.79	0.246	0.730	0.27	3.42	0.213	0.00	24.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. TEX) – There’s value in safety, and Zimm theoretically provides it. He’s playing over his head right now, though, and sooner or later the other shoe is going to drop as soon as his abundance of balls in play start finding more holes through the Detroit defense.

Cole Hamels TEX (at DET) – Hamels has been uncharacteristically wild this season despite a career rate of just 2.3 BB/9, with 15 walks in 30 innings and multiple free passes handed out in each of his first five starts. He is facing a Tiger lineup that can be unforgiving to southpaws and walks could come back to hurt him.

Kenta Maeda LAD (at TOR) – Just yesterday, I went on a rant about how the season is getting deep enough to start trusting trends until they change, specifically sighting the Blue Jays and their mediocre offense, so they went ahead and hung 11 earned runs on Derek Holland in his first three innings of work, tainting his ERA for the next six weeks. Maeda’s not a lefty and his baseline is much higher than Holland’s, but he could be standing in the way of Toronto’s offensive steamroller that’s revving its engines.

Zack Greinke ARI (at ATL) – There’s an interesting contrasts offered by Maeda versus Greinke, two pitchers who rely on command more than overwhelming stuff. Greinke is the old/known commodity with a sparkling track record who is struggling this season and yet facing a horrible offense, while Maeda was largely unknown coming into the year, has been absolutely magnificent in his five starts (1.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) but is facing an elite offense. The Braves don’t strike out much/a ton (18.9-percent K rate is in the lowest one-third of the league), so I’ll lean with the K-related upside here and wait for Greinke to get his act together.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (at MIA) – There’s no doubting VV’s dominance over his first two starts, allowing zero runs while striking out 25 batters over 15 frames, but since his monumental start against the Padres the K-count has been a more modest 14 punchouts in 16.1 innings. Velasquez has also walked seven batters over his last two games but has been able to keep his pitch-count down while earning the quality start in each turn. He continues to impress and makes a good investment in DFS so long as gamers keep their expectations in check.

Rich Hill OAK (at BAL) – It’s tempting to think of Hill as the 10-K guy. As it seems to be his trademark to strike out exactly that many hitters, but while nobody was looking he’s been able to limit runs and log innings. Four of his last five starts have been of the quality variety and he has done so against some tough opponents, but facing the O’s in Camden will be the toughest test yet.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. LAD) – After striking out just 19 batters in his first 35 innings of 2016, Stroman finally broke out in his last start, striking out nine Rays as he finished the eight innings for the third time in six starts. His ability to go deep without running up a high pitch count (he’s topped out at 106 pitches) has allowed him to earn a few extra fantasy points to cover for the low strikeout totals, but the key o his bridging the gap between fantasy value and on-field value lies in the strikeouts.

Yordano Ventura KC (at CLE)

John Lackey CHC (vs. WAS)

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. PHI)

Francisco Liriano PIT (at STL)

Rick Porcello BOS (at NYY)

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. BOS)

Mat Latos CHW (vs. MIN)

Drew Pomeranz SD (vs. NYM)

Chad Bettis COL (at SF)

Doug Fister HOU (vs. SEA)

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. OAK)

Aaron Blair ATL (vs. ARI)