Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 2nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suarez | SFG | CHC | 60 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 1.30 | 17.6% | 7.4% | 1.05 | 1.52 | |
| Lester | CHC | SFG | 365 | 3.06 | 3.40 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 25.1% | 6.3% | 0.86 | 1.53 |
| De La Cruz | ATL | PHI | 48.1 | 4.66 | 5.25 | 1.41 | 12.2% | 7.5% | 1.49 | 1.23 | |
| Hellickson | PHI | ATL | 300 | 4.20 | 4.11 | 1.25 | 19.9% | 6.2% | 1.35 | 1.13 | |
| Guerra | MIL | PIT | 111.1 | 3.07 | 4.30 | 1.12 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 0.81 | 1.33 | |
| Taillon | PIT | MIL | 77 | 3.39 | 3.50 | 1.12 | 20.5% | 3.9% | 1.17 | 2.18 | |
| Green | NYY | BAL | 44 | 4.09 | 3.50 | 1.30 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 2.25 | 1.14 | |
| Bundy | BAL | NYY | 85 | 3.71 | 4.12 | 1.34 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.38 | 0.77 | |
| Carrasco | CLE | MIA | 311.2 | 3.47 | 3.03 | 1.08 | 27.9% | 5.9% | 1.07 | 1.62 | |
| Reyes | STL | CIN | 14 | 0.64 | 3.80 | 1.07 | 30.9% | 14.6% | 0.00 | 1.40 | |
| Desclafani | CIN | STL | 279 | 3.68 | 4.01 | 1.28 | 20.0% | 20.2% | 6.4% | 0.87 | 1.26 |
| Liriano | TOR | TBR | 323 | 4.15 | 3.93 | 1.36 | 12.5% | 24.6% | 10.7% | 1.03 | 1.81 |
| Cobb | TBR | TOR | |||||||||
| Cole | WAS | NYM | 22 | 5.32 | 4.07 | 1.32 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 1.64 | 0.57 | |
| Syndergaard | NYM | WAS | 305 | 2.89 | 2.93 | 1.09 | 28.5% | 5.3% | 0.86 | 1.62 | |
| Fister | HOU | TEX | 260.1 | 3.84 | 4.71 | 1.33 | 58.3% | 14.9% | 6.8% | 1.11 | 1.28 |
| Griffin | TEX | HOU | 96.1 | 4.39 | 4.57 | 1.30 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 1.78 | 0.66 | |
| Rodon | CWS | MIN | 268.1 | 3.82 | 4.11 | 1.43 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 0.97 | 1.42 | |
| Gibson | MIN | CWS | 306 | 4.32 | 4.38 | 1.39 | 52.6% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 1.00 | 1.85 |
| Sanchez | DET | KCR | 289.1 | 5.41 | 4.25 | 1.37 | 41.2% | 20.4% | 7.9% | 1.68 | 0.98 |
| Duffy | KCR | DET | 280.1 | 3.53 | 4.04 | 1.22 | 57.1% | 21.6% | 7.2% | 1.06 | 0.90 |
| Ray | ARI | COL | 272.2 | 3.93 | 3.73 | 1.38 | 33.3% | 25.3% | 8.7% | 0.89 | 1.38 |
| De La Rosa | COL | ARI | 264 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 1.44 | 40.0% | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 1.69 |
| Price | BOS | OAK | 404 | 3.14 | 3.41 | 1.14 | 52.4% | 24.9% | 5.3% | 0.87 | 1.22 |
| Triggs | OAK | BOS | 55.1 | 4.39 | 3.33 | 1.23 | 23.2% | 5.6% | 0.81 | 1.90 | |
| Oberholtzer | LAA | SEA | 97.2 | 4.88 | 4.62 | 1.59 | 41.7% | 16.7% | 9.4% | 1.66 | 1.32 |
| Miranda | SEA | LAA | 23.2 | 5.70 | 4.85 | 1.48 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 1.52 | 0.88 | |
| Richard | SDP | LAD | 75.2 | 3.69 | 3.82 | 1.43 | 13.0% | 6.9% | 0.59 | 3.62 | |
| Urias | LAD | SDP | 63 | 3.71 | 3.81 | 1.51 | 25.4% | 9.1% | 0.71 | 1.56 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. WAS) – Thor was a regular in this space for the first three months of the season, but he hasn’t been elevated past Raise status since before the All-Star break due to inconsistent performance and an apparent cap on his per-game K count. He struck out nine or more batters in seven of his first 14 starts, cracking triple digits four time, but Syndergaard hasn’t punched out more than eight hitters in any of his last 12 turns. What he has brought to the table is a strikeout floor, with a predictable six-to-eight strikeouts in nine of his last ten starts (the outlier involved five Ks), a stretch that involves an impressive total of 69 strikeouts in 61 innings (10.2 K/9). That floor has immense value, especially at the end of the season with expanded rosters and some pitchers getting the hook early for the sake of protecting the workload. He also has a 2.66 ERA over the last 10 starts, and though the walks have shot up to a rate approaching league average after virtually disappearing from his stat record for the first half of the season – he walked multiple batters in just four of his first 14 starts, but walked two or more in eight of his last nine games.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. MIA) – Over the past five starts, Carrasco has upped the ante on what was a mundane K rate, striking out eight or more batters in each turn with 45 whiffs against just three walks in 32.2 innings over that span. With the strikeouts have rained the runs, with three or more earned runs allowed in four of the past five, along with a handful of unearned runs. He’s coming off the worst of those starts, with seven runs allowed (only three were earned) over four frames against the Rangers. The other start was eight innings of scoreless baseball against the A’s, one of the weakest offenses in baseball yet probably stronger than the current iteration of the Marlins, with Giancarlo Stanton out for the year and Marcell Ozuna battling an injured right wrist and slumping at the plate.
David Price BOS (at OAK) – Price is hitting a groove heading into the stretch run, with a 1.35 ERA and 19:4 K:BB in 20 innings over his last three starts. The modern version of the A’s is nothing like the one that got Billy Beane nominated for an Oscar, as the 2016 edition is last in the American League – by a large margin – with a .302 OBP as a team. Price is prone to large hit counts but Oakland is not the lineup to take advantage. He hit double-digit strikeouts seven times in 19 starts prior to the All-Star break, but he hasn’t struck out more than eight batters in any of his 10 games since, though he has given up double-digit hits three times in that stretch.
Danny Duffy KC (vs. DET) – Duffy had been on a clean run of excellent baseball since his 16-K domination of the Rays on August 1st, with a 1.50 ERA across the next four starts and 30 innings with a modest 21 strikeouts but just 29 baserunners allowed, with each start covering 6.2 or more frames. Then he went to Boston; seven runs on nine hits – including three homers – and just two strikeouts against two walks in 5.0 innings. The Red Sox have a way of ruining even the best statlines, but the downward trend of his strikeouts effectively lowers the likely output, while at the same time his propensity to go deep into ballgames ups overall baseline of fantasy points, as the Boston game was the first time in a dozen starts that Duffy hadn’t finished the sixth inning. Whether or not Miguel Cabrera is in the lineup could tilt the scales, in case you’re on the fence.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at MIN) – The lefty tore through the month of August, with a 1.47 ERA, a 26:7 K:BB and 24 hits allowed (with just one home run) across five starts, covering 30.2 innings. He went exactly 6.0 innings in four of the five games (6.2 frames in the other), and the White Sox have given him up to 122 pitches to finish the sixth. His walk rate continues to improve and he’s finally keeping the ball in the park, offsetting a K count that has been capped at eight strikeouts in his 22 starts this season. The Twins took game one of the series with the White Sox, breaking a 13-game losing streak, that has sunk them to the worst record in baseball.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suarez | 0.349 | 4.05 | 0.325 | 4.59 | 0.250 | 0.743 | 0.287 | 4.31 | 0.253 | 58.29 | 17.6% |
| Lester | 0.279 | 3.06 | 0.283 | 3.06 | 0.266 | 0.719 | 0.286 | 3.22 | 0.227 | 0.00 | 25.1% |
| De La Cruz | 0.334 | 5.63 | 0.351 | 3.70 | 0.242 | 0.687 | 0.272 | 5.34 | 0.265 | 51.80 | 12.2% |
| Hellickson | 0.340 | 4.21 | 0.310 | 4.19 | 0.253 | 0.688 | 0.285 | 4.30 | 0.251 | 91.98 | 19.9% |
| Guerra | 0.283 | 2.77 | 0.267 | 3.30 | 0.259 | 0.724 | 0.252 | 3.72 | 0.213 | 0.01 | 20.7% |
| Taillon | 0.306 | 2.50 | 0.290 | 4.34 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.288 | 3.71 | 0.251 | 86.38 | 20.5% |
| Green | 0.421 | 5.31 | 0.273 | 3.04 | 0.261 | 0.774 | 0.295 | 5.13 | 0.256 | 71.09 | 26.3% |
| Bundy | 0.308 | 3.56 | 0.345 | 3.89 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.305 | 4.45 | 0.258 | 47.65 | 22.0% |
| Cashner | 0.373 | 5.15 | 0.311 | 3.93 | 0.256 | 0.742 | 0.320 | 4.19 | 0.271 | 93.64 | 19.6% |
| Carrasco | 0.296 | 3.09 | 0.279 | 3.78 | 0.261 | 0.703 | 0.291 | 3.24 | 0.226 | 92.75 | 27.9% |
| Reyes | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.233 | 2.43 | 0.149 | 0.05 | 30.9% | ||||
| Desclafani | 0.346 | 4.62 | 0.277 | 2.64 | 0.261 | 0.763 | 0.313 | 3.62 | 0.262 | 96.09 | 20.2% |
| Liriano | 0.294 | 3.64 | 0.316 | 4.30 | 0.255 | 0.746 | 0.298 | 4.01 | 0.236 | 95.84 | 24.6% |
| Cobb | 0.258 | 0.780 | |||||||||
| Cole | 0.318 | 5.68 | 0.241 | 0.709 | 0.292 | 4.55 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 21.7% | ||
| Syndergaard | 0.300 | 3.36 | 0.259 | 2.51 | 0.250 | 0.731 | 0.306 | 2.77 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 28.5% |
| Fister | 0.349 | 4.32 | 0.297 | 3.31 | 0.259 | 0.742 | 0.291 | 4.45 | 0.266 | 82.37 | 14.9% |
| Griffin | 0.387 | 4.99 | 0.291 | 3.78 | 0.249 | 0.744 | 0.275 | 5.20 | 0.251 | 91.67 | 20.4% |
| Rodon | 0.255 | 2.81 | 0.347 | 4.16 | 0.258 | 0.743 | 0.323 | 3.97 | 0.26 | 96.81 | 22.6% |
| Gibson | 0.336 | 4.73 | 0.309 | 3.94 | 0.251 | 0.703 | 0.301 | 4.28 | 0.265 | 100.10 | 16.8% |
| Sanchez | 0.318 | 4.61 | 0.369 | 6.31 | 0.263 | 0.717 | 0.297 | 4.88 | 0.264 | 0.00 | 20.4% |
| Duffy | 0.238 | 2.13 | 0.323 | 3.87 | 0.270 | 0.778 | 0.289 | 3.95 | 0.242 | 67.70 | 21.6% |
| Ray | 0.300 | 3.28 | 0.329 | 4.17 | 0.263 | 0.727 | 0.333 | 3.52 | 0.257 | 99.69 | 25.3% |
| De La Rosa | 0.323 | 4.95 | 0.336 | 4.45 | 0.267 | 0.776 | 0.299 | 4.54 | 0.257 | 90.57 | 19.5% |
| Price | 0.294 | 2.78 | 0.286 | 3.26 | 0.251 | 0.708 | 0.303 | 3.09 | 0.241 | 0.00 | 24.9% |
| Triggs | 0.318 | 5.04 | 0.290 | 3.86 | 0.274 | 0.775 | 0.316 | 3.24 | 0.253 | 39.35 | 23.2% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.364 | 6.03 | 0.369 | 4.34 | 0.257 | 0.733 | 0.315 | 5.33 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Miranda | 0.338 | 5.71 | 0.246 | 0.702 | 0.306 | 4.96 | 0.277 | 0.00 | 17.5% | ||
| Richard | 0.273 | 1.98 | 0.339 | 4.66 | 0.244 | 0.704 | 0.310 | 3.89 | 0.278 | 21.77 | 13.0% |
| Urias | 0.306 | 4.50 | 0.333 | 3.49 | 0.250 | 0.717 | 0.369 | 3.15 | 0.279 | 82.64 | 25.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. MIL) – I realize that I put Taillon in the Raise category for his last start, with fawning words about setting a new career-high in strikeouts against a Brewers team that has invested in the wind energy generated by their empty swings, and then the rookie went out and got skunked for five runs on seven hits (two homers) over just 3.0 innings. So why go back to the well five days later, with Taillon traveling to the home park of the very team that just clobbered him? Forthe same reasons that I recommended him last weekend: a string of quality starts, a solid baseline of Ks, legit pitch command and an opponent who could do some of the work for him in piling up the strikeouts (and the fantasy points).
Marcus Stroman TOR (at TB) – There’s been some hiccups along the road, but over the past month, Stroman has flashed upside that hadn’t been seen this season. It started with a 13-K gem against the Astros on the first day of August, which kicked off a four-start run that covered 25.2 innings of 2.,10 ERA baseball and a ridiculous 34:4 K:BB. The Twins then roughed him up in Stroman’s last start (in a game Minnesota would go on to lose), but he was the victim of a carousel of base hits. Today he gets the luxury of facing the Rays, a team that has seen Stroman through the worst of times and best of times this season: back in May, the Rays knocked him for seven runs on 13 hits in 5.2 innings with just two strikeouts, but three starts prior he had limited them to one run on three hits over 8.0 innings, piling up nine Ks in the contest. He will dictate his own fate, but the odds are on Stroman’s side.
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. ATL) – Helix has been a stable if unexciting pitcher for much of the season, and in particular his last dozen starts have been impressive, with a 3.07 ERA and just 13 walks allowed in 73.1 innings, though his limited upside is demonstrated by the mere 56 strikeouts that he has compiled over that stretch. He’s coming off a rough start against the Mets, with five runs and seven hits surrendered over 4.0 frames, but he had pitched well against tougher opponents in the previous two starts (STL and LAD). The Braves are a low-K team that struggles to send runners across the plate, pitting Helix as a solid SP2 in multi-pitcher formats.
Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. NYY) – Bundy faced the Yankees in his last start, and they busted the right-hander for five runs on seven hits and three walks over 4.0 innings, and his six strikeouts weren’t enough to salvage his fantasy day with just 5.00 points earned on DraftKings. He should fare better this time around, but keep in mind that Bundy hasn’t topped 18 points in any of his last four starts, and Gary Sanchez seems to be a one-man wrecking crew.
Julio Urias LAD (vs. SD) – The Dodgers have stretched Urias out as the summer winds down, and he has thrown 94 and 97 pitches, respectively, over his last two starts. The southpaw has given up just one run over 12.0 innings of those two starts, with a total of 14 strikeouts against two walks. He’s coming off his most impressive start of the season, with six innings of one-run baseball with eight strikeouts against the mighty Cubs – a team that clobbered Urias for three homers back in June, which is kinda huge considering that he has only given up two other bombs this season.
Alex Reyes STL (at CIN) – He was given 89 pitches in his first start, though Reyes was unable to finish the fifth inning within those limits thanks to four walks allowed against the A’s. The hard-throwing right-hander might be given a small bit of extension on his leash tonight, but the minor-league track record suggests that he could be his own worst enemy in chewing through innings, with high walk counts and big strikeout numbers that pile up the pitches per batter. He’s a fun wild card play in DFS tonight, best suitable for large tournaments.
Junior Guerra MIL (at PIT)
Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. STL)
A.J. Cole WAS (at NYM)
Chad Green NYY (at BAL)
Doug Fister HOU (at TEX)
Andrew Cashner MIA (at CLE)
A.J. Griffin TEX (vs. HOU)
Clayton Richard SD (at LAD)
Joel De La Cruz ATL (at PHI)
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. CHW)
Brett Oberholtzer LAA (at SEA)
Ariel Miranda SEA (vs. LAA)
Anibal Sanchez DET (at KC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Robbie Ray ARI (at COL) – The strikeouts aren’t worth it.
Alex Cobb TB (vs. TOR) – I’m pulling for Cobb as he makes his first start since 2014 after going under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but he threw just 58 pitches in his final rehab start and didn’t have a pitch count higher than 81 in any of his minor-league turns, so the likelihood of a quick hook combined with the hard-hitting opponent will knock Cobb out of DFS consideration for today.
Andrew Triggs OAK (vs. BOS)
Jorge De La Rosa COL (vs. ARI)
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