Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 9th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-10 02:59:16

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Adleman	CIN	PIT	40.1	4.02	4.84	1.29		17.5%	7.6%	2.23	0.75
Brault	PIT	CIN	19	3.32	4.97	1.58		19.5%	11.5%	0.95	0.95
Thompson	PHI	WAS	33.1	6.48	5.54	1.53		14.7%	12.0%	1.89	1.34
Roark	WAS	PHI	291.1	3.46	4.27	1.23	52.6%	17.6%	7.1%	0.96	1.58
Snell	TBR	NYY	74.1	3.39	4.61	1.57		23.8%	12.7%	0.48	1.05
Pineda	NYY	TBR	312.1	4.73	3.26	1.29	75.0%	24.8%	4.8%	1.24	1.54
Porcello	BOS	TOR	358.2	4.04	3.79	1.18	55.6%	20.4%	4.5%	1.13	1.30
Estrada	TOR	BOS	330.1	3.32	4.48	1.07	27.8%	20.1%	8.0%	1.23	0.66
Fulmer	DET	BAL	136.2	2.77	4.01	1.08		20.3%	6.4%	0.92	1.63
Kershaw	LAD	MIA	353.2	2.01	2.25	0.83	66.7%	33.5%	3.8%	0.53	1.75
Fernandez	MIA	LAD	225	3.00	2.82	1.16	75.0%	32.9%	7.0%	0.64	1.33
Gsellman	NYM	ATL	15.2	2.87	4.95	1.40		16.4%	10.5%	0.00	1.62
Gant	ATL	NYM	38.1	4.70	3.81	1.38		23.4%	7.2%	1.17	1.08
Lester	CHC	HOU	374	3.01	3.43	1.09	65.0%	24.8%	6.3%	0.87	1.52
Musgrove	HOU	CHC	37.1	5.06	3.76	1.34		22.2%	5.1%	1.69	1.26
Salazar	CLE	MIN	318.1	3.59	3.58	1.21	12.5%	26.6%	8.6%	1.05	1.24
Duffey	MIN	CLE	173.1	5.19	4.01	1.43		19.8%	6.5%	1.35	1.64
Ventura	KCR	CWS	319	4.15	4.21	1.34	44.4%	20.0%	9.1%	0.99	1.79
Rodon	CWS	KCR	275.1	3.82	4.12	1.42		22.5%	9.5%	0.98	1.38
Nelson	MIL	STL	334.1	4.23	4.50	1.40		18.4%	9.7%	1.00	1.72
Martinez	STL	MIL	344	3.03	3.73	1.24		22.8%	8.7%	0.63	2.17
Bumgarner	SFG	ARI	412	2.73	3.18	1.02	47.6%	27.4%	5.3%	0.92	1.07
De La Rosa	ARI	SFG	236.1	4.57	4.08	1.32	57.1%	19.6%	7.7%	1.49	1.54
Iwakuma	SEA	OAK	302.2	3.81	4.03	1.19	60.0%	19.1%	4.8%	1.31	1.23
Mengden	OAK	SEA	51.1	6.66	4.77	1.71		20.9%	11.5%	1.05	1.15
Darvish	TEX	LAA	75.2	3.45	3.32	1.19	55.6%	29.7%	7.6%	1.19	0.97
Skaggs	LAA	TEX	42	4.71	4.23	1.50	37.5%	22.6%	9.1%	1.07	1.26
Chatwood	COL	SDP	132.1	3.94	4.76	1.40	25.0%	16.1%	10.4%	0.75	2.29
Perdomo	SDP	COL	121.2	5.92	4.07	1.69		16.3%	7.6%	1.26	2.83

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at ARI) – The top-end is teeming with high-end starters in today’s pitcher pool, and Bumgarner takes the top prize by just a nudge above Fern despite the fact that Mad Bum is in a bit of a rough patch. In his last four games, Bum has pitched 23 combined innings with a 5.48 ERA, but his 29 strikeouts and 3-1 record over that stretch have kept his owners reasonably happy in both season-long and DFS. His last start was certainly a step in the right direction, with six innings of two-run ball against the Cubs, including five hits (none of which left the yard) and no walks. Bumgarner has both the stamina and the pitch-count efficiency to go dep into ballgames, an underappreciated attribute for pitchers in DFS.

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. LAD) – Speaking of rough patches, Fern is coming off one his worst starts of the season, in which he gave up seven runs (six earned) on an astounding 12 hits and two walks in 5.2 frames against the Indians. He had registered 13 scoreless innings across the two-starts prior to his disaster in Cleveland, so perhaps the interleague blowup was just a blip on Fern’s radar, but it’s also worth noting that the pitcher with baseball’s best K rate has now gone eight straight games since his last contest with double-digit strikeouts, a feat that he accomplished seven times in his first 18 starts of the year. He has still amassed 56 Ks in 46.2 innings over his last eight games, so by no means is it a knock against him, but his lack of single-game explosions over the past two months could play big in a DFS game that greatly rewards the top-end of upside.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jon Lester CHC (at HOU) – Lester is the only arm of the top four who can lay claim to being near peak form. He has allowed two or fewer runs while pitching at least 6.0 innings in each of his last seven starts, including a one-run complete game against the Giants in his last start that featured just three hits and two walks allowed. Lester only managed a four-pack of strikeouts in that game, but he had rung up six or more Ks in each of his previous seven turns, so the strikeout floor is substantial even if the ceiling isn’t vaulted. The Astros have been hitting well recently, leading to four or more runs scored in eight straight contests, but they have been on the losing end of double-digit run totals three times in that stretch while topping out at eight runs for themselves. The team loses punch with Carlos Correa out of the lineup, giving another edge to the Cubs’ veteran southpaw.

Yu Darvish TEX (at LAA) – Similar to the other big arms on today’s slate, Darvish has been in something less than peak form over his past few starts, including a 5.94 ERA over his last three games that would be a touch higher if counting the two runs that were deemed to be unearned. He has walked 10 batters in 16.2 innings across those three games after walking just four batters in his previous six starts combined, and Darvish is coming off his roughest start of the season, in which he lasted just 4.0 innings in giving up five runs and ten baserunners to the Astros. The strikeout total might not be impressive tonight against the majors’ stingiest lineup, but the jey will be his getting through the outing with few runs and walks allowed.

Rick Porcello BOS (at TOR) – Porcello goes for win no. 20 tonight against the Jays, having earned the big W in six straight starts and with wins in his last nine decisions. Porcello has taken his career-low walk rate to new depths of greatness recently, with just seven total walks over his last 12 starts combined. He has also proven to have in-game longevity, in no small part thanks to the low walk totals and efficient pitch counts, as Porcello has pitched at least 7.0 innings in eight straight starts and has posted at least 6.0 frames in 13 straight. Tack on the fact that Porcello has recently discovered some extra strikeouts, topping seven or more Ks in three of his last four starts, and you have a recipe for a Raise-worthy pitcher even though he is facing a tough opponent.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. MIL) – Martinez has been very modest with the strikeouts this season, at least when he’s not facing the Brewers. In 23 starts against non-Milwaukee clubs in 2016, CarMart has notched 111 strikeouts in 145.1 innings (6.9 K/9); against the Brew Crew, the right-hander has amassed an incredible 32 strikeouts in just 19.0 innings (15.2 K/9), including a 0.95 ERA and his three highest-strikeout games of the season. Two starts ago, he struck out a season-high 13 Brewers across 6.0 innings (requiring just 98 pitches), cracking the 11 Ks that CarMart posted in 5.0 innings of a game against the Brewers just prior to the All-Star break. I think it’s fair to say that Martinez has Milwaukee’s number.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. NYM) – He took a couple turns to shake off the rust, including 11 hits and six runs over six innings against the Diamondbacks a couple starts ago, but Teheran made the most of facing soft opponents in his last two turns. Across 13.0 innings against the Phillies and Padres, Teheran recorded a 1.38 ERA with a 15:2 K:BB, spreading out 11 hits with one homer allowed. Things will be more challenging versus the Mets, at least in theory, as the Metropolitans have won five games in a row despite scoring no more than six runs in any of the five wins.

Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. KC) – You know how yesterday’s thin slate was bereft of Raise-worthy options? Well, it looks like the flood was still heading down the pipe, because tonight’s slate is bursting with intrigue and several pitchers who present the opportunity for a big DFS score, with nearly one-third of the pitchers available clearing the Raise threshold. Rodon tossed seven innings of four-run ball (three earned) against the Twins in his last start, the most runs that he had allowed in a single game since July. His month of August was remarkable: a 1.47 ERA and 26:7 K:BB over 30.2 innings, with a 3-0 record and just one homer allowed through six starts. His walk-related woes of last season appear to safely be in the rearview mirror, and the contact-heavy Royals are unlikely to change Rodon’s course of improvement across the board.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Adleman	0.365	5.30	0.340	2.91	0.258	0.724	0.252	6.08	0.252	82.63	17.5%
Brault			0.353	3.45	0.245	0.707	0.316	4.47	0.263	91.00	19.5%
Thompson	0.381	3.63	0.340	9.56	0.250	0.729	0.257	6.36	0.254	0.00	14.7%
Roark	0.318	3.15	0.293	3.73	0.241	0.685	0.282	4.12	0.248	67.86	17.6%
Snell	0.290	2.70	0.323	3.59	0.254	0.725	0.343	3.42	0.259	93.87	23.8%
Pineda	0.330	4.32	0.327	5.07	0.245	0.719	0.337	3.52	0.271	0.00	24.8%
Porcello	0.308	3.81	0.312	4.32	0.258	0.778	0.300	3.81	0.257	100.36	20.4%
Estrada	0.273	2.99	0.287	3.72	0.274	0.775	0.223	4.34	0.203	90.86	20.1%
Gausman	0.279	2.88	0.358	4.89	0.268	0.749	0.300	4.08	0.253	88.90	23.1%
Fulmer	0.272	2.58	0.285	2.96	0.261	0.775	0.257	3.79	0.22	0.01	20.3%
Kershaw	0.211	1.91	0.226	2.04	0.271	0.733	0.274	1.88	0.19	0.01	33.5%
Fernandez	0.325	3.45	0.230	2.59	0.253	0.751	0.343	2.32	0.233	0.01	32.9%
Gsellman					0.254	0.693	0.313	3.28	0.254	0.05	16.4%
Gant	0.338	4.22	0.360	5.29	0.243	0.713	0.330	3.91	0.268	50.71	23.4%
Lester	0.274	2.94	0.281	3.03	0.247	0.754	0.280	3.25	0.224	0.00	24.8%
Musgrove	0.372	5.51	0.350	4.71	0.249	0.742	0.330	4.52	0.284	0.00	22.2%
Salazar	0.292	3.88	0.299	3.33	0.249	0.721	0.290	3.60	0.227	99.56	26.6%
Duffey	0.309	3.56	0.383	6.80	0.256	0.743	0.328	4.31	0.283	0.00	19.8%
Ventura	0.321	4.95	0.303	3.38	0.251	0.704	0.291	4.16	0.246	94.40	20.0%
Rodon	0.254	2.74	0.347	4.19	0.273	0.741	0.322	3.99	0.26	96.45	22.5%
Nelson	0.358	5.16	0.299	3.48	0.260	0.761	0.294	4.51	0.253	93.36	18.4%
Martinez	0.326	3.64	0.254	2.44	0.251	0.714	0.298	3.38	0.235	0.00	22.8%
Bumgarner	0.247	2.85	0.272	2.71	0.267	0.775	0.276	3.01	0.215	0.00	27.4%
De La Rosa	0.379	6.26	0.276	3.12	0.262	0.735	0.281	4.69	0.251	87.98	19.6%
Iwakuma	0.311	3.49	0.313	4.09	0.248	0.701	0.289	4.12	0.257	92.17	19.1%
Mengden	0.349	7.03	0.358	6.33	0.250	0.737	0.348	4.55	0.283	0.00	20.9%
Darvish	0.280	3.25	0.303	3.63	0.258	0.725	0.299	3.42	0.227	92.46	29.7%
Skaggs	0.316	4.35	0.345	4.83	0.263	0.750	0.342	4.06	0.275	0.00	22.6%
Chatwood	0.316	4.50	0.312	3.42	0.237	0.681	0.285	4.26	0.25	93.26	16.1%
Perdomo	0.368	6.71	0.366	5.29	0.272	0.786	0.36	4.69	0.317	0.00	16.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at DET) – The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run since August 18th, with three consecutive scoreless starts in which he has shut down the neighborhood Nats as well as the resurgent Yankees (twice), covering 19.0 innings of clean baseball. He destroyed the Yankees with his ownership of the strike zone, striking out 17 batters against two walks in a pair of victorious starts, and he has punched out eight or more hitters in four of his last five games. The Tigers nailed Guasman for 10 hits and four runs when he faced them back in mid-May, a start that only involved one strikeout for Gausman over 5.0 innings of work, but Gausman has ascended to another performance level in the meantime and is likely to post another quality start, with strikeout upside to boot.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at MIA) – The expectation of a truncated pitch count is the only thing keeping Kershaw from resuming his post atop the pitcher pyramid. Even if he pitches four innings of vintage Kershaw 2016 baseball, he still might generate a Raise-worthy point total, given the struggles of the Marlins offense combined with the heights of his power. Consider that the southpaw has been out since late June with his back ailment, having made just 16 starts this season, and yet Kersh still ranks second in the National League for pitcher WAR according to Baseball-Reference. He only threw 34 pitches in his rehab appearance and could very well be held under 70 throws in tonight’s game. Given that he is priced as if going with a full workload – Kersh is the most expensive pitcher on the slate at $13500 on DraftKings – it will be nearly impossible (even for Kershaw) to score enough points to make for a worthwhile investment.

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. PHI) – We know the K count will be modest – Roark has struck out five or fewer hitters in six consecutive starts – but the real question hovering above Roark’s value is whether he and keep the scoreboard clean and last through the seventh inning. He’s accomplished the latter feat four times in his last eight starts, with an impressive composite ERA of 2.49, but his fantasy vulnerability is exposed by his 32:21 K:BB over 50.2 innings during that stretch. He blanked these Phillies over seven frames just two starts ago, allowing four hits and one walk, establishing his likely ceiling for tonight’s outing.

Michael Fulmer DET (vs. BAL)

Blake Snell TB (at NYY)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at OAK)

Danny Salazar CLE (at MIN)

Yordano Ventura KC (at CHW)

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. TB)

Tyler Chatwood COL (at SD)

Tyler Skaggs LAA (vs. TEX)

Braden Shipley ARI (vs. SF)

Steven Brault PIT (vs. CIN)

Marco Estrada TOR (vs. BOS)

Joe Musgrove HOU (vs. CHC)