Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, August 6th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-07 01:18:13

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Editor’s Note: Roberto Hernandez is starting in place of Mike Foltynewicz on Sunday.

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Kluber	CLE	NYY	365	3.40	3.16	1.04	57.1%	26.8%	5.4%	0.81	1.26
Sabathia	NYY	CLE	280	4.50	4.33	1.40	25.0%	18.3%	7.6%	1.25	1.39
Rodriguez	BOS	LAD	175	4.47	4.38	1.36		18.5%	7.5%	1.29	1.06
Stripling	LAD	BOS	54.1	4.14	4.39	1.29		17.5%	8.7%	0.50	1.95
Arrieta	CHC	OAK	363.1	2.13	3.08	0.94	50.0%	26.6%	6.9%	0.45	2.29
Gray	OAK	CHC	319	3.81	3.98	1.24	60.0%	19.6%	7.6%	0.99	1.83
Berrios	MIN	TBR	21	8.57	4.33	1.71		25.3%	12.1%	2.14	0.95
Archer	TBR	MIN	349.2	3.68	3.30	1.21	55.0%	28.3%	8.1%	1.06	1.35
Nova	PIT	CIN	191.1	4.99	4.29	1.38	25.0%	16.6%	7.0%	1.51	1.72
Cain	SFG	WAS	130.2	5.65	4.84	1.50	40.0%	15.8%	7.6%	1.72	0.86
Strasburg	WAS	SFG	261	3.03	2.94	1.04	52.4%	30.2%	6.1%	0.93	1.13
Verrett	NYM	DET	127	3.97	4.61	1.27		17.3%	9.4%	1.20	1.27
Boyd	DET	NYM	107	6.22	4.49	1.44		18.8%	7.5%	2.10	0.76
Tillman	BAL	CWS	311	4.31	4.56	1.32	42.9%	18.3%	8.8%	1.01	1.17
Rodon	CWS	BAL	237.2	4.13	4.12	1.48		22.7%	10.1%	1.06	1.41
Harrell	TEX	HOU	35.1	3.57	5.21	1.25		15.5%	10.1%	0.76	1.10
Fister	HOU	TEX	232	3.84	4.65	1.32	58.3%	15.0%	6.9%	1.13	1.33
Foltynewicz	ATL	STL	159	5.21	4.25	1.48		19.7%	7.1%	1.70	0.91
Martinez	STL	ATL	306	3.00	3.72	1.24		22.5%	8.5%	0.65	2.13
Sanchez	TOR	KCR	231.2	2.91	3.97	1.19		18.9%	9.0%	0.74	2.68
Duffy	KCR	TOR	245.1	3.60	3.92	1.23	57.1%	22.4%	7.5%	1.03	0.94
Cashner	MIA	COL	270	4.40	4.16	1.41	75.0%	19.9%	8.2%	1.10	1.49
Bettis	COL	MIA	242.1	4.72	4.11	1.42		18.7%	7.4%	0.97	1.86
Garza	MIL	ARI	196	5.56	4.71	1.58	35.0%	15.1%	8.3%	1.29	1.49
Corbin	ARI	MIL	210.2	4.61	4.10	1.45		19.1%	7.5%	1.24	1.81
Thompson	PHI	SDP
Clemens	SDP	PHI	23	4.70	5.39	1.57		18.6%	13.7%	3.13	0.72
Skaggs	LAA	SEA	12.1	0.00	3.10	0.81	37.5%	28.3%	6.5%	0.00	1.88
Walker	SEA	LAA	255.2	4.26	3.71	1.18		22.3%	5.5%	1.51	1.03

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. SF) – Not that he needed the help, but Stras runs into the Giants at just the right time, with the San Francisco offense struggling as the team has dropped 13 of their last 18 games. Stras has thrown 6.0 or more innings in 19 of his 20 starts, and in the one outlier he still struck out 10 batters. He’s given up more than four runs just one time this season, and in that game he struck out 10 batters. Stras has scored 16 or more points in DraftKings in every game this season, even the one blow-up start. The amazing thing is that he has yet to crack 40 points in a game, but we can sense the sharks in the water against a Giants lineup that has been chum for far lesser pitchers over the past. The one thing that San Francisco batters don’t do is strike out, so we get to see when what happens when the unstoppable Stras encounters the immovable Giants.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (at NYY) – The Yankees are much less intimidating with Beltran jettisoned from the lineup and with the speedy outfielders at the top both struggling to provide offense this season. The Yanks have a poor .285 wOBA and .646 OPS over the past seven days, good enough for the bottom quartile of the league in both categories. When it comes to Kluber however, he can be his own worst enemy and things tend to unravel quickly. That said, his peripherals are excellent (good enough for an AL-best 2.86 FIP). He is currently on a four-game run of pitching 7.0 or more innings and striking out seven or more batters in each contest, giving up a total of four runs in 29.0 innings over that stretch, three of which came against the powerful Orioles in the offensive haven of Camden Yards.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at OAK) – He is coming off of a strong start against the Mariners, giving up two runs on just two hits and three walks in 7.0 innings, though his K-count of four was disappointing and he took the loss when the Cubs scored just one run. He hasn’t struck out more than eight hitters in a game in a month and a half, and four times in his last six starts Arrieta has given up four or more runs in a game. Five of his eight home runs allowed have left the yard during that six-game stretch. The ERA over his last six games is 5.45, but the roughest games have been against modest offenses of the Mets, Pirates, Reds and White Sox. Enter the A’s, stage right.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at KC) – If you want an indication of Sanchez’s pitch-count efficiency, consider this: He has thrown 7.0 or more innings in 12 of his 21 starts (three other turns came one out shy of 7.0), but he has yet to exceed 105 pitches in any one start. His ERA has never exceeded 3.38 at any point this season and currently stands at 2.71 for the campaign. He has had random spikes this season, as he has allowed more than three earned runs in just three of his 21 starts this season, but in each of the three he gave up six earnies. He has only exceeded seven strikeouts one time, but that game brought 12 Ks of devastation against the Tigers. For all the talk about innings counts and moving Sanchez to the bullpen, his combination of low-stress innings and the extended rest afforded by the Jays’ new six-man rotation takes some of the worry of his succumbing to fatigue down the stretch.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. ATL) – Over the past two seasons, Carlos Martinez has thrown 206 innings with a composite ERA of 3.00 with 287 strikeouts (8.4 K/9), but his recent performance has been much more volatile than those numbers would suggest. Car-Mart didn’t walk more than three batters in any of his first 17 starts, but he has walked four batters in three of his last four turns. Prior to his last start – in which he allowed four runs over 7.0 innings – the right-hander hadn’t given up more than three runs in ten consecutive starts. He has only given up more than four tallies one time, but the strikeouts are limited, as he has only punched out more than eight hitters in one of his 20 starts this season, that being a K-spike of 11 strikeouts against the whiff-happy Brewers just before the All-Star break.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Kluber	0.306	3.70	0.241	3.12	0.247	0.725	0.286	2.93	0.222	0.01	26.8%
Sabathia	0.260	3.86	0.347	4.66	0.267	0.734	0.306	4.49	0.269	0.00	18.3%
Rodriguez	0.351	4.50	0.318	4.47	0.249	0.721	0.294	4.44	0.26	0.01	18.5%
Stripling	0.261	1.46	0.327	6.37	0.273	0.774	0.285	3.54	0.24	0.01	17.5%
Arrieta	0.226	1.76	0.241	2.47	0.249	0.704	0.248	2.59	0.187	0.00	26.6%
Gray	0.284	3.26	0.310	4.38	0.248	0.740	0.279	3.92	0.24	0.00	19.6%
Berrios	0.366	7.71			0.241	0.704	0.345	5.85	0.282	0.00	25.3%
Archer	0.286	3.83	0.296	3.53	0.246	0.711	0.299	3.34	0.228	0.00	28.3%
Bailey			0.252	3.18	0.261	0.727	0.309	5.60	0.299	0.00	12.2%
Nova	0.376	5.13	0.322	4.86	0.247	0.706	0.293	4.98	0.27	0.00	16.6%
Cain	0.404	6.39	0.344	5.09	0.247	0.723	0.307	5.38	0.286	0.00	15.8%
Strasburg	0.250	2.38	0.285	3.71	0.264	0.737	0.285	2.85	0.213	0.01	30.2%
Verrett	0.306	4.08	0.327	3.86	0.269	0.750	0.256	4.72	0.233	0.00	17.3%
Boyd	0.403	8.51	0.362	5.55	0.246	0.731	0.300	5.64	0.28	0.00	18.8%
Tillman	0.312	3.51	0.328	5.07	0.250	0.699	0.286	4.26	0.249	0.00	18.3%
Rodon	0.241	2.84	0.364	4.59	0.239	0.679	0.330	4.13	0.266	0.01	22.7%
Harrell	0.265	2.65	0.332	4.42	0.249	0.746	0.250	4.46	0.223	0.03	15.5%
Fister	0.343	4.50	0.300	3.13	0.258	0.742	0.286	4.49	0.262	0.00	15.0%
Foltynewicz	0.383	5.78	0.341	4.74	0.261	0.761	0.324	4.93	0.286	0.00	19.7%
Martinez	0.326	3.69	0.257	2.33	0.252	0.679	0.298	3.42	0.237	0.00	22.5%
Sanchez	0.328	3.48	0.234	2.36	0.264	0.721	0.262	3.85	0.223	0.00	18.9%
Duffy	0.246	2.13	0.325	3.98	0.267	0.792	0.294	3.88	0.243	0.00	22.4%
Cashner	0.367	5.06	0.311	3.85	0.270	0.777	0.315	4.20	0.267	0.00	19.9%
Bettis	0.320	4.41	0.351	5.03	0.262	0.703	0.321	3.97	0.274	0.00	18.7%
Garza	0.368	5.79	0.348	5.35	0.262	0.733	0.322	4.81	0.292	0.00	15.1%
Corbin	0.327	3.86	0.350	4.83	0.242	0.707	0.322	4.32	0.279	0.01	19.1%
Thompson					0.238	0.682
Clemens			0.470	7.24	0.242	0.683	0.233	7.96	0.253	0.02	18.6%
Skaggs					0.257	0.733	0.233	1.75	0.163	0.14	28.3%
Walker	0.305	4.09	0.315	4.46	0.257	0.721	0.28	4.29	0.244	0.00	22.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Chris Archer TB (vs. MIN) – Archer has spun three consecutive quality starts, striking out 25 batters in the process while walking just three over 20.1 innings of work. Granted, the first of those games was in Coors Field (including 11 K in 6.0 IP), so he was hardly owned for one of his best starts of the season. Archer has spent too much time battling the heartbreaking offenses of the AL East, such that seeing the Twins will offer a slight reprieve, a feeling of relaxation that will only grow more widespread as Archer envisions all those Twins swinging over dirty sliders.

Danny Duffy KC (vs. TOR) – Coming off the game of his life against the Rays in his last outing, in which Duffy struck out 16 batters over 8.0 one-hit frames, Duffy has basically no choice but to go downhill from there. However, he is being priced in some venues as if the gem of his last turn is a new baseline of performance that is to be expected in the future – at DraftKings,k his salary has escalated from $8900-to-$10900-to-$12900 in the span of two starts, and the market is likely due for a correction. The Blue Jays have a bunch of lefty-mashing hitters and Duffy had kept the Ks at seen or fewer in each of the four games prior, so odds are that he will have a very tough time justifying his salary even if he pitches well tonight.

Tyler Skaggs LAA (at SEA) – First, he shut down the Royals over 7.0 innings, requiring just 88 pitches to register the 21 outs while allowing just three hits and one walk. For his next trick, he blanked the Red Sox for the better half of a game, striking out eight batters over 5.1 innings of work. Both his curveball and his delivery look better than ever, and his left-handedness will minimize the impact of Mariners sluggers Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, though he’ll want to avoid the lethal bat of Nelson Cruz at all costs.

Chris Tillman BAL (at CHW)

Jose Berrios MIN (at TB)

Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. BAL)

Homer Bailey CIN (at PIT)

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. LAA) – Expect a short outing from Walker today. He has thrown 88 or fewer pitches in each of his last four starts, spread around multiple DL stints and stretching back to mid-June, while the Mariners have little reason to push their young right-hander. Even with the short leash, there’s no guarantee that he won’t get lit.

Ivan Nova PIT (vs. CIN)

CC Sabathia NYY (vs. CLE)

Doug Fister HOU (vs. TEX)

Lucas Harrell TEX (at HOU)

Matt Boyd DET (vs. NYM)

Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. MIL)

Jake Thompson PHI (at SD)

Logan Verrett NYM (at DET)

Paul Clemens SD (vs. PHI)

Matt Garza MIL (at ARI)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. CHC) – I never thought I’d see the day that Sonny Gray was banished to the Fold list. Things have just gotten that bad for the right-hander, who has given up career-high rates of runs, hits, walks and homers, has a 5.84 ERA on the season, and gave up seven runs in each of three separate outings in July alone. There must be something about that unlucky number seven, because Gray has given up exactly seven earned runs in five of his 2- starts this season, yet he has never allowed six earnies in a game and only once allowed five. Oddities aside, his last start was one of the crap-out sevens, and with his strikeout rate humming along at it’s typical 7.5 K/9, I just don’t see any upside here. Did I mention that he’s facing the Cubs, the best run-scoring (sea-level) offense in the National League?

Matt Cain SF (at WAS) – Flashbacks rekindle the memories of both Cain and Gray as intimidating opponents out of the Bay Area who succeeded on guile and low strikeout rates, but fast forward to today and both are Fold-worthy pitchers whose outrageous hit rates create excellent stacking opportunities.

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at LAD)

Roberto Hernandez ATL (at STL)

Andrew Cashner MIA (at COL) – Hell of an assignment for your first start with the new ballclub.

Ross Stripling LAD (vs. BOS)

Chad Bettis COL (vs. MIA)

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