Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, August 9th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin | TEX | COL | 73.1 | 4.05 | 4.73 | 1.23 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 1.60 | 0.68 | |
| Chatwood | COL | TEX | 116.2 | 3.63 | 4.87 | 1.38 | 25.0% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 0.69 | 2.22 |
| Bauer | CLE | WAS | 295 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 1.33 | 38.5% | 22.0% | 10.2% | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| Scherzer | WAS | CLE | 385.1 | 2.83 | 2.73 | 0.92 | 60.0% | 31.4% | 4.8% | 1.19 | 0.77 |
| Perdomo | SDP | PIT | 89 | 6.67 | 4.08 | 1.83 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.31 | 2.65 | |
| Kuhl | PIT | SDP | 19.1 | 4.19 | 5.01 | 1.24 | 16.1% | 6.2% | 0.93 | 0.58 | |
| Smyly | TBR | TOR | 191 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 25.6% | 6.5% | 1.60 | 0.72 |
| Estrada | TOR | TBR | 304.1 | 3.05 | 4.43 | 1.02 | 27.8% | 20.3% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 0.66 |
| Matz | NYM | ARI | 154.2 | 3.32 | 3.62 | 1.26 | 22.5% | 5.9% | 0.93 | 1.67 | |
| Severino | NYY | BOS | 105.2 | 4.17 | 3.87 | 1.31 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 1.45 | 1.84 | |
| Porcello | BOS | NYY | 315 | 4.26 | 3.78 | 1.23 | 55.6% | 20.3% | 4.8% | 1.20 | 1.34 |
| Moore | SFG | MIA | 199 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 1.36 | 19.0% | 8.1% | 1.31 | 0.89 | |
| Koehler | MIA | SFG | 307.1 | 4.07 | 4.76 | 1.40 | 52.6% | 17.6% | 10.0% | 0.94 | 1.24 |
| Weaver | LAA | CHC | 282.1 | 4.85 | 5.17 | 1.33 | 52.4% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 1.50 | 0.68 |
| Lackey | CHC | LAA | 361.2 | 3.14 | 3.82 | 1.16 | 57.9% | 21.8% | 6.4% | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| Jenkins | ATL | MIL | 35.1 | 4.33 | 6.33 | 1.67 | 10.5% | 14.8% | 1.53 | 1.46 | |
| Peralta | MIL | ATL | 174.2 | 5.46 | 4.84 | 1.67 | 47.4% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 1.34 | 1.82 |
| Fiers | HOU | MIN | 296.1 | 3.95 | 4.05 | 1.28 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 1.25 | 1.02 | |
| Santiago | MIN | HOU | 306.1 | 3.91 | 4.60 | 1.29 | 16.7% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 1.50 | 0.65 |
| Finnegan | CIN | STL | 171.1 | 4.20 | 4.80 | 1.32 | 18.6% | 11.0% | 1.58 | 1.19 | |
| Leake | STL | CIN | 325 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 16.0% | 5.0% | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| Sale | CWS | KCR | 355.2 | 3.29 | 2.94 | 1.06 | 64.3% | 29.0% | 5.2% | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| Volquez | KCR | CWS | 335.2 | 4.13 | 4.42 | 1.37 | 50.0% | 17.8% | 8.6% | 0.86 | 1.59 |
| Miley | BAL | OAK | 310.2 | 4.69 | 4.31 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 17.7% | 7.4% | 1.04 | 1.52 |
| Neal | OAK | BAL | 24 | 5.25 | 4.03 | 1.25 | 10.3% | 1.0% | 1.50 | 1.84 | |
| Norris | DET | SEA | 73 | 3.95 | 4.23 | 1.26 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 1.48 | 0.87 | |
| LeBlanc | SEA | DET | 31.1 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 1.12 | 18.0% | 3.9% | 2.01 | 0.77 | |
| Velasquez | PHI | LAD | 158.1 | 3.69 | 3.76 | 1.29 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 0.91 | 0.80 | |
| Maeda | LAD | PHI | 125.2 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 1.07 | 24.8% | 6.4% | 0.93 | 1.23 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (vs, CLE) – It’s simple: if you want to zig, keep up with the Jones’s and have the best possible shot at the highest pitcher score of the day, then roster Scherzer. If you want to zag, straying from the crowd and crossing your fingers that he has a pedestrian score, then don’t roster Scherzer. Playing him in a 50/50 tournament should be automatic, at least in two-pitcher formats. There are two things that set Scherzer apart from the other candidates on tonight’s docket, starting with his unmatched potential for strikeouts. He already tied the major league record earlier this season with a 20-K performance and he’s cracked double-digit strikeouts in nine of his 23 starts this season, including his last turn. The other defining aspect of Scherzer’s profile, something that is conspicuously missing from several of the better pitchers available, is that Scherzer goes deep into ballgames – he has gone 7.0-plus frames in five straight starts and in 15 of his turns overall. Combine that with his skills of run prevention – including a 1.46 ERA over his last seven starts, with a 60:10 K:BB – and you have the basic recipe for a big night in DFS.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Sale CHW (at KC) – Following a disaster start against the Braves prior to the All-Star break, Sale has since strung together an impressive three-start run that has brought his value back into focus. Over his last three starts, Sale has posted a 1.64 ERA with a 20:7 K:BB over 22.0 innings of work, including 10 strikeouts over 8.0 frames against the Tigers in his last outing. We might be looking at a return of the old Sale, but not the K-producer of the past two seasons, rather the run-squelching version of earlier this year. He deserves a tier of his own for tonight’s game, facing a weak Kansas City lineup, but the difference in strikeout expectancy keeps him out of Scherzer’s class while the lack of depth among the other options on tonight’s schedule puts him well ahead of the rest of the room.
Marco Estrada TOR (vs. TB) – Estrada is a run-squelching machine, having given up three or fewer earned runs in each of his last 12 starts and 17 of 19 overall, topping out at four earned runs allowed in any given start. Meanwhile, he has pitched 6.0 or more innings in 17 of 19 as well, with 15 quality starts on the season. Estrada has been limiting the walks over the past month, with just three free passes given away over his last four starts and 24.0 innings. He has also gone three games without giving up a home run, his longest homer-free string of the season. Estrada is typically good for about a half-dozen strikeouts, and though he hasn’t spiked any massive K totals yet this season, he has punched out eight or nine hitters in seven different starts. Throw in the soft opponent, a Rays team that has the highest batter-strikeout rate in the American League and the league’s worst team batting average (.239), and Estrada (with his consistently-low BABiP) makes for an attractively safe option.
Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. PHI) – A pitch-count reduction is part of the deal when rostering Maeda, as the right-hander hasn’t thrown more than 97 pitches in a game since June and has been capped at a high of 107 throws in a game this season. The expected innings count is therefor low, as Maeda has exceeded 6.0 innings pitched in just eight of his 22 starts and has yet to generate an out in the eighth inning. He also hasn’t whiffed more than five batters in any game since the All-Star break, though he has held the opposition to just two runs while coming within one out of a quality start in each of his last three turns. However, consider his schedule since the break: at COL, vs. ARI, at STL, at ARI. Facing the Phillies at home will feel like a vacation.
Vincent Velasquez PHI (at LAD) – Velasquez is facing off against Maeda tonight, and the two right-handers have at least one major thing in common: a limited pitch count. Velasquez has been given a bit longer leash lately, having exceeded 97 pitches in three of his last five starts, but like Maeda, Velasquez has been capped at 107 pitches in games this season (save for the expic shutdown of the Padres in his second start, 113 pitches) and the expectation is a pitch count in the mid-90s. His innings are expected to be similarly limited, as VV has exceeded 6.0 innings just twice all season and the 16-K shutout against San Diego was the only time that he exceeded 7.09 frames. Know for his strikeouts, Velasquez has been more about the floor than the ceiling in his last seven starts, a stretch that has included 5.0-7.0 innings pitched and 5-7 strikeouts at each turn.
Zack Greinke ARI (at NYM) – Pitch counts are becoming a theme of today’s slate, but when it comes to a veteran ace returning from a stint on the disabled list, one of the first questions is whether he’ll be on a shorter leash than usual as the team eases him back into action. The other question is related to health, whether the pitcher is returning at 100 percent or something less than full capacity. He threw 80 pitches in his Triple-A tuneup and Greinke figures to be held under 100 pitches tonight, though pitch counts have proven not to be an obstacle for a pitcher who has routinely pitched deep into ballgames despite only once throwing more than 107 pitches in his 17 starts this season. Of greater concern are the nine hits and five runs (including two homers) that he gave up to a Triple-A lineup over 5.0 innings of work. Tread cautiously if rostering Greinke today, an option that derives most of its appeal from the lack of high-end alternatives.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin | 0.376 | 5.65 | 0.257 | 2.45 | 0.270 | 0.778 | 0.246 | 5.10 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 19.7% |
| Chatwood | 0.303 | 3.92 | 0.325 | 3.34 | 0.258 | 0.741 | 0.281 | 4.27 | 0.247 | 0.01 | 15.4% |
| Bauer | 0.310 | 4.22 | 0.310 | 4.50 | 0.248 | 0.725 | 0.282 | 4.19 | 0.235 | 0.00 | 22.0% |
| Scherzer | 0.296 | 3.01 | 0.221 | 2.65 | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.257 | 3.02 | 0.198 | 0.01 | 31.4% |
| Perdomo | 0.364 | 6.80 | 0.393 | 6.56 | 0.260 | 0.726 | 0.377 | 4.71 | 0.329 | 0.00 | 16.5% |
| Kuhl | 0.353 | 3.38 | 0.239 | 0.685 | 0.283 | 4.06 | 0.253 | 0.04 | 16.1% | ||
| Smyly | 0.302 | 4.91 | 0.328 | 4.30 | 0.267 | 0.792 | 0.302 | 4.16 | 0.251 | 0.01 | 25.6% |
| Estrada | 0.276 | 3.10 | 0.260 | 2.99 | 0.242 | 0.707 | 0.213 | 4.16 | 0.193 | 0.00 | 20.3% |
| Greinke | 0.266 | 2.39 | 0.235 | 2.23 | 0.240 | 0.708 | 0.251 | 2.99 | 0.207 | 0.00 | 22.5% |
| Matz | 0.330 | 3.25 | 0.295 | 3.34 | 0.267 | 0.770 | 0.319 | 3.44 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 22.5% |
| Severino | 0.313 | 3.30 | 0.338 | 5.21 | 0.273 | 0.773 | 0.290 | 4.54 | 0.253 | 0.01 | 20.9% |
| Porcello | 0.317 | 3.94 | 0.324 | 4.66 | 0.248 | 0.726 | 0.307 | 3.96 | 0.264 | 0.00 | 20.3% |
| Moore | 0.304 | 5.06 | 0.334 | 4.26 | 0.274 | 0.740 | 0.296 | 4.57 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 19.0% |
| Koehler | 0.331 | 4.19 | 0.312 | 3.95 | 0.263 | 0.736 | 0.291 | 4.36 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 17.6% |
| Weaver | 0.340 | 4.33 | 0.346 | 5.31 | 0.248 | 0.739 | 0.286 | 5.08 | 0.276 | 0.00 | 12.8% |
| Lackey | 0.317 | 3.12 | 0.272 | 3.15 | 0.257 | 0.722 | 0.285 | 3.64 | 0.239 | 0.00 | 21.8% |
| Jenkins | 0.361 | 6.08 | 0.365 | 3.27 | 0.252 | 0.709 | 0.254 | 6.50 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 10.5% |
| Peralta | 0.385 | 5.21 | 0.386 | 5.71 | 0.252 | 0.678 | 0.342 | 5.12 | 0.317 | 0.00 | 13.0% |
| Fiers | 0.300 | 3.84 | 0.334 | 4.04 | 0.247 | 0.715 | 0.294 | 4.18 | 0.252 | 0.00 | 21.1% |
| Santiago | 0.298 | 2.92 | 0.323 | 4.22 | 0.243 | 0.741 | 0.253 | 4.92 | 0.227 | 0.00 | 20.8% |
| Finnegan | 0.311 | 2.81 | 0.329 | 4.65 | 0.236 | 0.682 | 0.246 | 5.32 | 0.229 | 0.00 | 18.6% |
| Leake | 0.318 | 4.17 | 0.297 | 4.13 | 0.247 | 0.707 | 0.281 | 4.10 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 16.0% |
| Sale | 0.274 | 3.13 | 0.282 | 3.32 | 0.272 | 0.733 | 0.296 | 3.10 | 0.225 | 0.01 | 29.0% |
| Volquez | 0.315 | 3.74 | 0.315 | 4.53 | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.298 | 4.06 | 0.257 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Miley | 0.295 | 4.09 | 0.339 | 4.88 | 0.255 | 0.717 | 0.306 | 4.15 | 0.268 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| Neal | 0.409 | 9.00 | 0.268 | 1.50 | 0.262 | 0.770 | 0.305 | 4.59 | 0.302 | 0.00 | 10.3% |
| Norris | 0.381 | 5.00 | 0.308 | 3.60 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.272 | 4.59 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 19.7% |
| LeBlanc | 0.333 | 4.84 | 0.269 | 0.776 | 0.247 | 5.04 | 0.244 | 0.03 | 18.0% | ||
| Velasquez | 0.316 | 3.76 | 0.305 | 3.63 | 0.248 | 0.734 | 0.316 | 3.46 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 26.2% |
| Maeda | 0.289 | 2.91 | 0.257 | 3.47 | 0.242 | 0.683 | 0.272 | 3.41 | 0.219 | 0.01 | 24.8% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
John Lackey CHC (vs. LAA) – After a couple of rocky starts in April, Lackey cruised through the next six weeks and on June 14 found himself sitting on a 2.66 ERA. He’s been rather mundane since, going at least 6.0 innings in eight of nine starts but with an ugly 5.34 ERA on the heels of the 11 home runs that he has surrendered in that time. He has a respectable 54:20 K:BB in 55.2 innings in those nine games and has tossed three consecutive quality starts. His current ERA of 3.70 sits exactly where it was a month ago and might be the best proxy for what to expect moving forward. Tonight he faces an Angels lineup that is the toughest in all of baseball to strike out, and it’s not particularly close – the Angels’ team total of 648 batter strikeouts is more than 100 Ks fewer than the next-lowest total, and their team K rate of 15.4 percent is the lowest in baseball by 2.3 percentage points.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. NYY) – From a statistical standpoint, the biggest difference between last season (4.92 ERA) and this one (3.46 ERA) is a hit rate that sunk from 10,3 H/9 in 2015 to 8.2 H/9 this season, as fewer of the groundball specialist’s worm burners have found pasture. It’s actually the first time in Porcello’s eight-year career that he’s allowed less than a hit per inning, though he helps to keep the damage to a minimum with a low walk rate that hasn’t cracked 6.0 percent since his rookie year. His strikeouts are still a problem from a fantasy point of view, so his value lies within the domain of balls in play, with a wide range of outcomes.
Steven Matz NYM (vs. ARI) – Matz is coming off a sinister game against the Yankees, with six hits and six runs given up over six innings of work, striking out six batters along the way. All of the runs scored over the first two innings, but then Matz was able to put out the fire with four scoreless frames, retiring the last 13 batters that he faced. The southpaw has been solid yet unspectacular since the Braves torched him for six runs and nine hits over 4.2 innings (with zero strikeouts) back on June 24, as in the seven starts since that game Matz has compiled a 4.25 ERA and 39:13 K:BB in 42.1 innings. He has thrown between 5.0-7.0 frames in each of his last seven starts and recorded 5-6 strikeouts in each game, modes totals that lack the flare of the rookie’s first three months.
Matt Moore SF (at MIA) – Welcome to the National League. In his first start in a Giants uniform, Moore walked six Phillies but allowed just three hits and two runs in 6.0 innings against the Phillies. It was easily Moore’s highest walk total of the season, coming in the midst of a season in which his walk rate was the lowest it had ever been while with the Rays. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in the other six of his past seven starts, with the one exception involving three runs over seven frames, but the southpaw had just 25 strikeouts over 40.2 innings in that stretch.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at WAS)
Mike Leake STL (vs. CIN)
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. CHW)
Drew Smyly TB (at TOR)
Hector Santiago MIN (vs. HOU)
Mike Fiers HOU (at MIN)
Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. SD)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. SF)
Daniel Norris DET (at SEA)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. ATL)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (at STL)
Wade LeBlanc SEA (vs. DET)
Wade Miley BAL (at OAK)
Tyrell Jenkins ATL (vs. MIL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Zach Neal OAK (vs. BAL)
Luis Perdomo SD (at PIT)
Luis Severino NYY (at BOS)
Jered Weaver LAA (at CHC)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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