Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, July 5th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-06 02:42:35

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Finnegan	CIN	CHC	144.1	4.18	4.84	1.33	0.0%	18.60%	11.4%	1.37	1.28
Lackey	CHC	CIN	322.2	2.93	3.82	1.16	57.9%	21.50%	6.3%	0.89	1.27
Foltynewicz	ATL	PHI	123.0	5.12	4.30	1.52	0.0%	19.40%	7.1%	1.76	0.84
Eflin	PHI	ATL	20.1	5.75	5.40	1.38	0.0%	9.60%	4.3%	1.77	0.97
Davies	MIL	WAS	113.0	4.06	4.21	1.23	0.0%	19.60%	8.1%	1.12	1.68
Gonzalez	WAS	MIL	267.1	4.14	3.80	1.41	46.7%	22.90%	8.7%	0.61	1.85
Young	KCR	TOR	181.0	4.08	4.98	1.24	47.4%	18.80%	9.5%	1.89	0.46
Dickey	TOR	KCR	317.0	4.00	4.77	1.24	47.6%	14.90%	7.3%	1.25	1.20
Sanchez	DET	CLE	231.1	5.33	4.32	1.37	41.2%	19.90%	8.3%	1.75	0.99
Carrasco	CLE	DET	247.0	3.35	2.89	1.07	0.0%	28.50%	5.9%	1.02	1.77
Lincecum	LAA	TBR	89.2	4.52	4.89	1.56	40.0%	17.80%	11.6%	0.90	1.29
Odorizzi	TBR	LAA	263.2	3.55	3.96	1.18	36.8%	22.10%	7.1%	1.13	0.92
Chen	MIA	NYM	283.0	3.91	4.07	1.25	31.6%	19.20%	5.3%	1.40	1.02
Matz	NYM	MIA	117.2	3.06	3.53	1.23	0.0%	23.10%	5.7%	0.92	1.69
Griffin	TEX	BOS	43.0	2.93	4.24	1.09	0.0%	24.30%	9.8%	0.84	0.74
Price	BOS	TEX	328.2	3.20	3.30	1.13	52.4%	25.70%	5.4%	0.88	1.17
Tanaka	NYY	CWS	258.2	3.44	3.54	1.02	66.7%	21.50%	4.5%	1.18	1.56
Rodon	CWS	NYY	226.1	3.94	4.11	1.45	0.0%	23.00%	10.2%	0.95	1.45
Manaea	OAK	MIN	55.0	5.40	4.50	1.42	0.0%	18.40%	7.1%	1.31	1.11
Milone	MIN	OAK	159.0	4.36	4.42	1.35	43.8%	16.70%	6.7%	1.30	1.26
Walker	SEA	HOU	251.2	4.15	3.73	1.17	0.0%	22.20%	5.5%	1.43	1.05
Keuchel	HOU	SEA	339.0	3.32	3.17	1.14	50.0%	22.50%	6.2%	0.82	2.91
Taillon	PIT	STL	28.0	3.86	3.75	1.25	0.0%	18.40%	4.4%	1.29	2.32
Leake	STL	PIT	290.0	3.85	4.19	1.18	45.0%	15.30%	5.6%	1.12	1.90
Friedrich	SDP	ARI	108.1	4.65	4.55	1.63	0.0%	17.70%	10.5%	0.83	1.52
Godley	ARI	SDP	47.0	3.45	4.21	1.23	0.0%	21.70%	10.8%	1.15	1.46
Tillman	BAL	LAD	272.1	4.53	4.53	1.34	42.9%	18.40%	8.7%	1.12	1.18
Maeda	LAD	BAL	92.2	2.82	3.87	1.09	0.0%	23.90%	7.5%	0.78	1.22
Chatwood	COL	SFG	85.2	3.15	4.47	1.23	25.0%	15.20%	8.3%	0.63	2.41
Bumgarner	SFG	COL	333.0	2.68	3.14	1.01	47.6%	27.10%	5.1%	0.89	1.11

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. COL) – Bumgarner has been overshadowed in his own division for years, but the Giants southpaw has done everything possible to be mentioned in the same breath as Kershaw. Bumgarner has never exceeded an ERA of 3.37 for a season, and his current mark of 2.20 would qualify as the lowest full-season ERA of his career. His strikeout rate is at a career-high 27.4 percent this season, and the rate is on a five-year run of incline. His walks bounced up after two straight years of ridiculously-low sub-five-percent rates, but his frequency of free passes (6.3 percent) is still far better than league average (8.4 percent) this season. He’s coming off a four-run start against the A’s, the first time that he had given up that many tallies since mid-April. He held the Rox to one run over six frames in Colorado a month ago, so he should have no problem handling them at sea level.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. DET) – Carrasco’s last two starts have been absolutely dominant, with one run allowed over 16.1 innings including 21 strikeouts and three walks allowed. His most recent gem was a 14-strikeout effort against the high-powered offense of the Blue Jays, a start so strong that it started inflating Carrasco’s hype machine. He certainly has the talent to justify that hype, but this is a pitcher who hadn’t cleared eight Ks in his previous nine starts and has a history of volatility. By all means, Carrasco is one of the best bets on today’s slate and his work from previous seasons certainly supports the possibility of another high-strikeout game, but don’t be lulled into a false sense of security. Carrasco shut out these Tigers in Detroit just two starts ago, and his recent surge in popularity might act like a magnet for his services.

David Price BOS (vs. TEX) – Price has been the ultimate boom or bust option this season. He has the strikeout upside to crack double digits (which he has done five different times this season), yet the penchant for disaster innings that leave him with five or more earnies attached to his stat sheet (which he has also done five times this season). He played these Rangers just two starts ago and it resulted in Price’s worst start so far in a difficult season, with 12 hits and six runs allowed in just 2.l11 innings before he was ousted. He came back with a 10-strikeout game against the Rays, but Price also allowed four runs and 10 baserunners in 6.1 innings. It takes guts to roll with Price today, as well as the willingness to accept the high risk of blowup, but the potential rewards are substantial and many DFS managers will likely be avoiding him.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at HOU) – Walker is similar to Price in terms of volatility, though his ups don’t reach quite as high and his downs haven’t been as frequent or as painful as those of Price so far this season. That said, Walker has reached the 11-K level twice this season and has allowed one or zero runs in three of his last four starts. The strikeouts have been all over the place this season (he’s only cracked more than a half-dozen Ks three times), but he’s facing the right ballclub to ensure a high K-count, and if Walker happens to be on a performance spike then the Astros could fuel a magnificent line for the young right-hander. He hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in any of his last three starts, and it remains to be seen if the Mariners will let out the leash a bit and extend his workload.

John Lackey CHC (vs. CIN) – The ultra-consistent Lackey has hit a small snag over his last few starts, but even snags are relative, as three of his last four turns were quality starts. The one th at was non-quality involved seven earned runs against the Marlins, and though he has spun quality starts in the other three turns, each involved no more than 6.1 innings pitched and no fewer than two runs allowed; his combined ERA over the last four turns is an unimpressive 5.56 mark, with 10 walks and four homers allowed in 22.2 innings. The Reds rocked Lackey for six runs the last time they faced him (back in April), adding to any pessimism surrounding Lackey’s performance in today’s start.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Finnegan	0.331	3.31	0.316	4.46	0.247	0.736	0.248	5.11	0.226	0.01	18.6%
Lackey	0.316	3.02	0.268	2.86	0.245	0.702	0.287	3.54	0.239	0.00	21.5%
Foltynewicz	0.409	5.89	0.336	4.50	0.244	0.684	0.330	5.06	0.292	0.00	19.4%
Eflin			0.356	6.97	0.252	0.676	0.260	5.43	0.267	0.00	9.6%
Davies	0.319	3.12	0.299	4.87	0.246	0.718	0.271	4.25	0.237	0.01	19.6%
Gonzalez	0.279	3.54	0.325	4.32	0.235	0.684	0.336	3.29	0.263	0.00	22.9%
Young	0.387	5.23	0.253	3.11	0.259	0.782	0.227	5.49	0.223	0.00	18.8%
Dickey	0.315	3.97	0.320	4.03	0.269	0.732	0.260	4.74	0.245	0.00	14.9%
Sanchez	0.318	4.56	0.374	6.16	0.254	0.737	0.288	5.07	0.261	0.00	19.9%
Carrasco	0.280	3.11	0.286	3.56	0.270	0.746	0.293	3.13	0.225	0.01	28.5%
Lincecum	0.280	2.20	0.396	7.30	0.241	0.702	0.315	4.47	0.269	0.01	17.8%
Odorizzi	0.271	2.93	0.331	4.24	0.256	0.720	0.273	3.86	0.232	0.00	22.1%
Chen	0.276	2.83	0.345	4.23	0.241	0.713	0.295	4.29	0.262	0.00	19.2%
Matz	0.308	1.95	0.290	3.40	0.271	0.735	0.314	3.35	0.255	0.01	23.1%
Griffin	0.281	3.13	0.251	2.70	0.273	0.771	0.236	3.61	0.192	0.03	24.3%
Price	0.295	2.84	0.283	3.32	0.264	0.751	0.301	3.04	0.237	0.01	25.7%
Tanaka	0.277	3.68	0.283	3.25	0.250	0.703	0.253	3.71	0.222	0.01	21.5%
Rodon	0.243	2.97	0.353	4.29	0.254	0.728	0.325	4.00	0.259	0.01	23.0%
Manaea	0.221	2.51	0.375	6.42	0.255	0.732	0.315	4.49	0.277	0.00	18.4%
Milone	0.287	4.19	0.342	4.41	0.256	0.724	0.294	4.49	0.267	0.01	16.7%
Walker	0.297	3.80	0.318	4.57	0.251	0.753	0.281	4.19	0.244	0.01	22.2%
Keuchel	0.232	2.93	0.296	3.43	0.260	0.736	0.288	3.30	0.236	0.00	22.5%
Taillon	0.357	4.15	0.287	3.38	0.264	0.759	0.313	4.16	0.278	0.04	18.4%
Leake	0.318	4.27	0.281	3.40	0.263	0.733	0.267	4.26	0.247	0.00	15.3%
Friedrich	0.293	3.61	0.362	5.32	0.270	0.774	0.333	4.19	0.282	0.00	17.7%
Godley	0.239	2.66	0.347	4.05	0.239	0.679	0.254	4.54	0.218	0.02	21.7%
Tillman	0.321	3.73	0.331	5.31	0.244	0.723	0.289	4.41	0.253	0.00	18.4%
Maeda	0.271	2.28	0.263	3.28	0.262	0.775	0.269	3.43	0.215	0.01	23.9%
Chatwood	0.254	3.38	0.324	2.96	0.266	0.742	0.271	3.92	0.240	0.01	15.2%
Bumgarner	0.232	2.61	0.274	2.69	0.256	0.710	0.275	2.98	0.215	0.01	27.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. BAL) – Well, we know what the floor looks like. Maeda has never given up more than four runs in a start, but he has surrendered exactly four runs in five of his 16 starts this season. Otherwise, he’s a quality start machine, with a K:BB of 89:28 in 92.2 innings this season. He’s playing a Baltimore offense that is teeming with power but also contains plenty of swing-n-miss, so the question is whether Maeda can tack on some extra strikeouts to offset the runs that will likely be crossing the plate. There’s big upside here given the hit-or-miss nature of the Orioles offense, but that same factor also creates a downside that might creep below the four-run threshold that has been established by Maeda thus far.

Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. NYY) – Somewhere along the way, Rodon learned how to harness the strike zone. Rodon has walked just 14 batters over his last eight starts covering 47.1 innings (2.7 BB/9) while striking out a batter per inning (48 total Ks over that stretch), though perhaps he was throwing too many strikes, as batters teed off with 53 hits (seven were homers), the net result being a 3.61 ERA. He is still learning the delicate balance between command and control, pitcher’s strikes versus hitter’s strikes, but the relatively-quick adjustments are a testament to his learning curve.

Steven Matz NYM (vs. MIA) – Matz tore through the league for two months, but he hit a stumbling block in June. In his last four starts, Matz has a combined 6.23 ERA with 29 hits (including four homers) allowed in 21.2 innings. He only gave up four home runs through his first 11 starts, so the sudden vulnerability to homers has been noticeable as has his influx of baserunners, including nine or more hits-plus-walks in four of his five June starts. The worst of those turns was two starts ago, when Matz coughed up six runs in 4.1 innings to the lowly Braves, and his follow-up start against the Cubs did little to reignite confidence.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at CHW) – Tanaka had a rough go of things in his last start, giving up six runs to the Rangers over six innings, though he maintained his usual strike-zone efficiency with seven Ks against one walk. It was the third time this season that Tanaka had surrendered five or more runs in a start, but in all three cases he has cleared at least 6.0 innings pitched, giving him a reasonably high baseline of fantasy points. Tanaka faced the White Sox back in mid-May, managing eight hits and three walks in 5.0 innings (tied for Tanaka’s shortest outing of the year), so it seems that most of the indicators are pointing in the wrong direction.

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. LAA) – Odorizzi could be an impact starter in this league if pitch efficiency were an asset instead of being such a tremendous liability. Case in point, He struck out seven Tigers in his last start and gave up just three hits, but it took him 108 pitches just to complete the fifth inning. He has thrown 107 or more pitches in six of his last eight starts, but he has pitched into the seventh inning just once in that stretch – what he has done is strike out at least six batters in seven of those eight games.

Tyler Chatwood COL (at SF) – Chatwood comes off the DL to face the Giants on the road, where he has a 1.75 ERA in seven starts this season, compared to a 5.10 ERA in seven starts at Coors Field. The K count might be modest but Chatwood’s contributions will be felt on the scoreboard.

Chris Tillman BAL (at LAD) – Tillman has established a new level of strikeouts this season, but his last three starts are reminiscent of the old version, with just nine strikeouts over 14.2 innings. He has also given up 14 earned runs over that stretch, tacking 0.84 runs onto his ERA for the season. Tillman gave up just one home run over his first eight starts, but in his last nine turns the right-hander has coughed up a combined 13 homers, sabotaging his run prevention in the process.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. MIL)

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at NYM)

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. SEA)

Sean Manaea OAK (at MIN)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at PHI)

A.J. Griffin TEX (at BOS)

Mike Leake STL (vs. PIT)

Zach Davies MIL (at WAS)

R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. KC)

Steven Brault PIT (at STL) – Brault is scheduled to make his MLB debut, and the six-foot southpaw has piled up loads of strikeouts and walks across two levels of the minors this season. We’ll see if the strikeouts translate, but the walks could be a harbinger of doom against a tough Cardinals offense that can string together big innings.

Tim Lincecum LAA (at TB)

Christian Friedrich SD (at ARI)

Zack Godley ARI (vs. SD)

Zach Eflin PHI (vs. ATL)