Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, June 14th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-15 02:37:37

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Eflin	PHI	TOR
Stroman	TOR	PHI	112.2	4.15	3.86	1.26	66.7%	16.1%	6.9%	0.72	3.01
Lackey	CHC	WAS	300	2.73	3.75	1.13	57.9%	21.5%	6.0%	0.84	1.31
Gonzalez	WAS	CHC	246.2	3.83	3.74	1.37	46.7%	22.6%	8.3%	0.58	1.81
Tillman	BAL	BOS	250.2	4.38	4.47	1.32	42.9%	18.5%	8.8%	1.04	1.22
Price	BOS	BAL	304	3.05	3.32	1.11	52.4%	25.5%	5.7%	0.80	1.15
Finnegan	CIN	ATL	124.1	3.69	4.62	1.28		18.8%	10.7%	1.30	1.33
Teheran	ATL	CIN	282.2	3.69	4.12	1.22	70.0%	21.1%	8.2%	1.24	1.08
deGrom	NYM	PIT	252	2.61	3.17	1.02	50.0%	26.1%	5.4%	0.71	1.32
Walker	SEA	TBR	237	4.25	3.69	1.18		22.2%	5.6%	1.41	1.06
Odorizzi	TBR	SEA	242	3.38	3.95	1.15	36.8%	21.6%	6.9%	1.04	0.94
Zimmermann	DET	CWS	272.2	3.56	4.00	1.21	52.6%	18.7%	4.8%	1.06	1.15
Gonzalez	CWS	DET	185	4.62	4.48	1.39	40.0%	18.0%	8.3%	1.41	1.15
Tomlin	CLE	KCR	133	3.25	3.84	0.98	23.1%	19.4%	2.9%	1.69	0.93
Young	KCR	CLE	164.1	3.89	4.88	1.18	47.4%	18.3%	8.4%	1.81	0.46
Fister	HOU	STL	175.2	3.84	4.62	1.34	58.3%	14.3%	6.5%	1.18	1.39
Garcia	STL	HOU	199	2.94	3.54	1.15	28.6%	19.6%	6.8%	0.50	2.72
Eovaldi	NYY	COL	225.2	4.27	3.87	1.40	50.0%	19.2%	6.8%	0.80	1.91
De La Rosa	COL	NYY	180.2	4.98	4.04	1.43	40.0%	21.9%	10.1%	1.25	1.80
Maeda	LAD	ARI	70	2.70	3.81	1.06		23.3%	7.2%	0.64	1.19
Bradley	ARI	LAD	65	5.54	4.88	1.54		18.3%	12.8%	0.97	1.75
Santana	MIN	LAA	168.1	4.28	4.43	1.35	38.9%	18.1%	7.9%	1.07	1.17
Chacin	LAA	MIN	90	4.40	4.18	1.30	18.2%	18.8%	8.1%	1.10	1.77
Perez	TEX	OAK	157	3.84	4.58	1.39	37.5%	13.6%	9.0%	0.52	2.43
Surkamp	OAK	TEX	30	6.90	5.75	1.90		11.8%	10.5%	1.80	0.81
Koehler	MIA	SDP	253.1	4.16	4.80	1.41	52.6%	17.2%	10.5%	0.92	1.32
Pomeranz	SDP	MIA	156	3.12	3.70	1.15	25.0%	25.6%	9.8%	0.69	1.20
Garza	MIL	SFG	148.2	5.63	4.68	1.57	35.0%	15.6%	8.6%	1.39	1.37
Bumgarner	SFG	MIL	304.1	2.63	3.10	1.03	47.6%	27.2%	5.2%	0.83	1.12

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. MIL) – The scary thing about Bummer is that he just recently rediscovered his ideal delivery, yet he was mowing down hitters with ease even while his mechanics were slightly askew. He’s the best pitcher on today’s slate, is playing in his cavernous home ballpark and is facing a Milwaukee offense that leads the National League in strikeouts this season. The last time that Mad Bum give up more than one earned run in a game was way back on May 6, and he’s only surrendered more than two earnies twice this season (both in early-mid April). Expect his ownership rates to be through the roof today.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (vs. PIT) – DeGrom is back on track. After failing to top a half-dozen strikeouts in any of his first six starts, the right-handed has whiffed seven or more batters in four straight, including 19 Ks over his last two games. His velocity still hasn’t reached the heights of last season, but the pitch-speed has been on a steady incline over the past month and his secondary pitches have been used very effectively, with just one home run hit off of a breaking this season yet 21 strikeouts that were finished by either the slider or the curve. He gave up three runs across 6.0 frames for a baseline quality start against these Pirates in his last turn, but the right-hander’s performance is perhaps better exemplified by his nine strikeouts and zero walks in the outing, a feat that he will look to repeat in tonight’s game.

John Lackey CHC (at WAS) – The first month of the season was hit or miss for Lackey, but since the calendar flipped to May he has been lights out, with a 1.59 ERA and 57 strikeouts against 13 walks in 56.2 innings. He only seems to be getting the stronger as we get deeper into the season, and over his last three starts Lackey has only given up one run over 20.2 frames with 23 strikeouts to his credit; granted, two of those games were against the suspect offense of the hillier, but in the game prior to the three-game stretch of dominance he struck out nine Cardinals in 7.0 innings. He has also been a workhorse since the start of May, posting 20 or more outs in seven of his last eight games. He’s whiffed eight or more batters in five of his 12 turns and has more than a K-per-inning this season, turning back the clock as the 37-year-old is pitching like a player ten years his junior.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. CIN) – Teheran has been a machine for the past two months, with a 1.94 ERA and 63:15 K:BB in 65 innings across his last 10 starts. He has only given up more than one earned runs three times in his last nine turns, but all three of the starts in question came in his last three ballgames, a stretch that includes six homers surrendered through 19.0 innings pitched. The damage could have been much worse, considering that all five of the homers that he gave up over the last two games were of the solo variety, so he’ll have to be careful with a Reds offense whose 76 homers place them in the upper-third of the National League. He has lasted 7.0 or more innings in seven of his last 11 turns and has cleared at least five frames in every start since early April, giving Teheran the opportunity to pile up some strikeouts and stay in long enough to get a W even if the homer-prone continues.

Drew Pomeranz SD (vs. MIA) – The walk rate leaves much to be desired at 4.1 BB/9 this season, but his reluctance to give in to opposing hitters has otherwise worked wonders for Pomeranz this season. He has posted goose eggs in four of his last seven starts, and other than a six-run hiccup against the Diamondbacks on May 29, Pomeranz has kept the tally under four runs allowed in every start since April. He is coming off his second-worst start of that stretch, giving up a surprising nine hits and three runs over just 5.0 innings against the light-hitting Braves in his last game, giving him subpar results in two of his last three. That said, he will benefit from the friendly environs of Petco Park and look to build on the K count that includes 23 strikeouts over 17.0 innings over those same three starts; the whiffs have helped to save his DFS line, as Pomeranz has cleared 11 points on DraftKings even in the two forgettable turns against Atlanta and Arizona.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Eflin					0.259	0.776
Stroman	0.303	4.45	0.310	3.81	0.242	0.676	0.291	3.78	0.255	0.01	16.1%
Lackey	0.312	2.73	0.264	2.73	0.247	0.720	0.286	3.40	0.238	0.00	21.5%
Gonzalez	0.273	3.05	0.318	4.06	0.245	0.722	0.330	3.17	0.259	0.01	22.6%
Tillman	0.310	3.37	0.332	5.40	0.272	0.768	0.287	4.27	0.25	0.00	18.5%
Price	0.288	2.93	0.277	3.09	0.237	0.673	0.292	2.98	0.229	0.01	25.5%
Finnegan	0.310	3.09	0.311	3.90	0.228	0.619	0.245	4.85	0.222	0.01	18.8%
Teheran	0.370	5.03	0.250	2.63	0.245	0.703	0.271	4.32	0.235	0.00	21.1%
deGrom	0.285	3.12	0.229	2.07	0.265	0.738	0.277	2.77	0.215	0.01	26.1%
Walker	0.294	3.83	0.323	4.78	0.244	0.709	0.283	4.15	0.244	0.01	22.2%
Odorizzi	0.260	2.63	0.328	4.21	0.248	0.736	0.268	3.75	0.228	0.01	21.6%
Zimmermann	0.318	3.64	0.287	3.49	0.249	0.695	0.296	3.80	0.259	0.00	18.7%
Gonzalez	0.356	4.72	0.323	4.53	0.269	0.741	0.297	4.85	0.266	0.01	18.0%
Tomlin	0.251	2.39	0.335	4.04	0.267	0.730	0.238	4.44	0.228	0.01	19.4%
Young	0.368	4.79	0.254	3.09	0.251	0.724	0.222	5.26	0.219	0.00	18.3%
Fister	0.341	4.06	0.319	3.59	0.265	0.761	0.291	4.60	0.27	0.00	14.3%
Garcia	0.280	3.24	0.268	2.86	0.244	0.744	0.282	3.16	0.233	0.01	19.6%
Eovaldi	0.355	4.83	0.287	3.86	0.271	0.779	0.329	3.55	0.276	0.00	19.2%
De La Rosa	0.322	6.23	0.347	4.84	0.255	0.733	0.305	4.44	0.255	0.00	21.9%
Maeda	0.265	2.38	0.248	3.00	0.264	0.738	0.263	3.17	0.211	0.02	23.3%
Bradley	0.317	3.71	0.357	7.55	0.242	0.719	0.295	4.69	0.252	0.00	18.3%
Santana	0.331	4.55	0.319	4.01	0.253	0.715	0.298	4.21	0.26	0.01	18.1%
Chacin	0.334	5.36	0.293	3.50	0.242	0.696	0.280	4.21	0.245	0.01	18.8%
Perez	0.236	1.59	0.330	4.46	0.253	0.713	0.296	3.93	0.262	0.01	13.6%
Surkamp			0.391	5.24	0.261	0.741	0.330	6.81	0.315	0.00	11.8%
Koehler	0.338	4.43	0.307	3.88	0.240	0.677	0.289	4.43	0.252	0.00	17.2%
Pomeranz	0.224	2.13	0.287	3.59	0.273	0.732	0.262	3.28	0.202	0.00	25.6%
Garza	0.373	5.43	0.346	5.81	0.261	0.733	0.319	4.94	0.29	0.00	15.6%
Bumgarner	0.225	2.43	0.274	2.68	0.236	0.689	0.279	2.86	0.216	0.01	27.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

David Price BOS (vs. BAL) – Some mechanical tweaks have helped Price to cure some of the ills that plagued him early in the season, resulting in a six-game string of quality starts, but CY-carrying southpaw has been less than dominant of late. He has a solid 2.78 ERA over his last five starts, but the peripheral stats have been less impressive, including a K:BB ratio of 26:11 and six homers surrendered over those five starts, covering 35.2 innings. He has a miniscule .191 BABiP over that stretch, so he could get toppled by regression if Price is unable to keep the ball in the yard against a powerful Orioles offense that leads the majors in home runs.

Kenta Maeda LAD (at ARI) – Maeda had a bit of a rough stretch in May, in which he seemingly gave up four runs in every start, but he has recently rediscovered the dominance that was on display earlier in the season; in his last three turns, Maeda has a collective ERA of 1.00 over 18.0 innings with 17 strikeouts along the way. He blanked Arizona over 6.0 innings in his second start of the year, so they have seen what Maeda brings to the table; whether they can do something about it is another issue.

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. SEA) – Odorizzi wasn’t missing many bats over the first couple months of the season, but the right-hander has rediscovered the value of Ks with 27 strikeouts over his last 23.0 innings, a four-game stretch that includes a 2.74 ERA. He has kept the runs tally under four in eight of his last nine starts, with less than three runs allowed in seven of those turns, but a lack of pitch-count efficiency has limited him to just four quality starts over that stretch.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at TB) – The streaky inconsistency of Walker’s rookie campaign has carried over into this season. He had a sub-2.00 ERA after his start on May 6, then proceeded to surrender four or more runs in each of his next five turns. So what does he do next? Pitch his best game of the season of course, striking out 11 Indians with no walks and just three hits allowed over 8.0 scoreless innings. That was his most recent outing, and Walker could be a bargain today if it was indeed the start of another hot streak for the right-hander.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. HOU) – Garcia is enduring his roughest stretch of the season, with just one quality start in his last five games, and he hasn’t struck out more than four batters in any one of those five games. The Astros lead the majors in batter Ks by a healthy margin so they may be able to help Garcia boost the latter issue, but he is a risky proposition for DFS until he rights the ship.

Jordan Zimmermann DET (at CHW) – Zimm’s current slump has erased nearly all of the goodwill that he generated through the first month with his new club. He gave up seven runs to the Blue jays in his last start, surrendered another seven tallies three starts before that, and has struck out three or fewer batters in five of his last six starts.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. PHI) – Stroman is in the midst of a brutal stretch, with four or more runs allowed in five of his last six starts, and he hasn’t topped topped five strikeouts in any of those games. Part of the struggle is due to his facing the robust lineups of the AL East, including facing the Red Sox twice and Orioles once in his last three starts, so facing the Phils will be a welcome break. Just don’t expect a very high K count, and bring an umbrella in case the hits continue to rain all over Rogers Centre – he has allowed eight or more hits in six of his last seven outings.

Martin Perez TEX (at OAK)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at ATL)

Josh Tomlin CLE (at KC)

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. CHC)

Chris Tillman BAL (at BOS)

Archie Bradley ARI (vs. LAD)

Doug Fister HOU (at STL)

Ervin Santana MIN (at LAA)

Tom Koehler MIA (at SD)

Jhoulys Chacin LAA (vs. MIN)

Matt Garza MIL (at SF)

Jameson Taillon PIT (at NYM)